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Soft Commodities Speculators drop Lean Hogs bets for 4th week to 134-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (9,880 contracts) with Corn (5,496 contracts) and Coffee (4,017 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-20,245 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-16,565 contracts), Soybeans (-13,843 contracts), Lean Hogs (-12,741 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,915 contracts), Wheat (-6,306 contracts), Cocoa (-2,757 contracts) and Sugar (-1,614 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the swift and strong decrease in the Lean Hogs speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Lean Hogs fell this week for a fourth consecutive week (by a total of -41,547 contracts) and for the sixth time in the past nine weeks.

The speculator’s net position has dropped from a total of +44,713 contracts on December 27th to an overall bullish level of just +3,166 contracts this week. This recent weakness in speculator sentiment has now pushed the overall net position standing for Lean Hogs to the lowest level in the past 134 weeks, dating back to June 30th of 2020.

Lean Hogs prices have been under pressure since reaching a recent high in July above the 115.00 price level as the market has responded to ample hogs supply. Since then, the Lean Hog futures price (front-month) has fallen by over 30 percent and closed this week at the lowest level since late in 2021.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,660,450	23	249,799	12	-273,246	88	23,447	38
Gold	499,927	25	157,673	35	-180,554	63	22,881	37
Silver	134,922	12	25,684	42	-39,461	58	13,777	41
Copper	213,398	52	20,170	52	-26,542	46	6,372	62
Palladium	9,363	20	-3,297	8	3,534	91	-237	27
Platinum	72,613	46	20,261	39	-25,819	61	5,558	42
Natural Gas	1,102,760	27	-170,972	24	138,482	78	32,490	57
Brent	153,686	14	-36,800	41	33,917	57	2,883	48
Heating Oil	278,159	27	25,360	80	-48,540	20	23,180	79
Soybeans	667,416	20	155,222	59	-117,945	52	-37,277	8
Corn	1,274,410	11	277,369	65	-205,662	43	-71,707	2
Coffee	231,360	35	-22,728	4	20,167	96	2,561	35
Sugar	924,848	42	185,084	58	-229,339	37	44,255	63
Wheat	350,331	27	-48,320	0	50,423	100	-2,103	99

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92 percent) and Corn (65 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (62 percent), Soybeans (59 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (65.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.8 percent)
Sugar (57.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.1 percent)
Coffee (4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (59.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (29.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (62.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.3 percent)
Cocoa (41.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.2 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.7 percent)

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (13 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (8 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cotton (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-14 percent), Soybean Oil (-11 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-13.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.4 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (9.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (23.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-36.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-27.8 percent)
Cotton (2.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.2 percent)
Cocoa (1.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.6 percent)
Wheat (-7.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 277,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 271,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	43.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	60.0	14.7
– Net Position:	277,369	-205,662	-71,707
– Gross Longs:	388,317	558,456	115,106
– Gross Shorts:	110,948	764,118	186,813
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	42.6	2.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-4.6	-22.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 185,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	43.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	68.6	5.1
– Net Position:	185,084	-229,339	44,255
– Gross Longs:	270,150	404,948	91,086
– Gross Shorts:	85,066	634,287	46,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	37.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	-0.2	10.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	52.9	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	44.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-22,728	20,167	2,561
– Gross Longs:	45,404	122,400	10,598
– Gross Shorts:	68,132	102,233	8,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	95.9	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	11.6	21.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 155,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	46.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	64.3	12.5
– Net Position:	155,222	-117,945	-37,277
– Gross Longs:	206,329	311,307	46,219
– Gross Shorts:	51,107	429,252	83,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	52.5	8.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-11.7	-10.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	50.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	61.6	7.4
– Net Position:	39,250	-44,514	5,264
– Gross Longs:	80,599	203,133	34,963
– Gross Shorts:	41,349	247,647	29,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	72.2	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	15.1	-28.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	32.9	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.5	73.2	7.1
– Net Position:	149,785	-169,008	19,223
– Gross Longs:	168,470	138,088	49,137
– Gross Shorts:	18,685	307,096	29,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	7.8	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-7.7	3.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	30.6	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	50.4	12.2
– Net Position:	66,228	-62,823	-3,405
– Gross Longs:	117,249	96,720	35,368
– Gross Shorts:	51,021	159,543	38,773
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	27.2	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.5	1.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	36.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	37.0	12.5
– Net Position:	3,166	-682	-2,484
– Gross Longs:	66,938	75,927	23,357
– Gross Shorts:	63,772	76,609	25,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	96.9	95.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.8	27.7	47.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	48.5	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	58.0	5.3
– Net Position:	17,833	-19,679	1,846
– Gross Longs:	61,599	100,981	12,918
– Gross Shorts:	43,766	120,660	11,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.2	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-3.4	9.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	47.3	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	57.2	2.9
– Net Position:	24,941	-28,978	4,037
– Gross Longs:	90,986	138,394	12,460
– Gross Shorts:	66,045	167,372	8,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.5	58.8	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.3	6.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	40.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	26.3	10.3
– Net Position:	-48,320	50,423	-2,103
– Gross Longs:	88,787	142,422	33,981
– Gross Shorts:	137,107	91,999	36,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	8.2	4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

26 Jan

How California’s ambitious new climate plan could help speed energy transformation around the world

By Daniel Sperling, University of California, Davis

California is embarking on an audacious new climate plan that aims to eliminate the state’s greenhouse gas footprint by 2045, and in the process, slash emissions far beyond its borders. The blueprint calls for massive transformations in industry, energy and transportation, as well as changes in institutions and human behaviors.

These transformations won’t be easy. Two years of developing the plan have exposed myriad challenges and tensions, including environmental justice, affordability and local rule.

For example, the San Francisco Fire Commission had prohibited batteries with more than 20 kilowatt-hours of power storage in homes, severely limiting the ability to store solar electricity from rooftop solar panels for all those times when the sun isn’t shining. More broadly, local opposition to new transmission lines, large-scale solar and wind facilities, substations for truck charging, and oil refinery conversions to produce renewable diesel will slow the transition.

I had a front row seat while the plan was prepared and vetted as a longtime board member of the California Air Resources Board, the state agency that oversees air pollution and climate control. And my chief contributor to this article, Rajinder Sahota, is deputy executive officer of the board, responsible for preparing the plan and navigating political land mines.

We believe California has a chance of succeeding, and in the process, showing the way for the rest of the world. In fact, most of the needed policies are already in place.

What happens in California has global reach

What California does matters far beyond state lines.

California is close to being the world’s fourth-largest economy and has a history of adopting environmental requirements that are imitated across the United States and the world. California has the most ambitious zero-emission requirements in the world for cars, trucks and buses; the most ambitious low-carbon fuel requirements; one of the largest carbon cap-and-trade programs; and the most aggressive requirements for renewable electricity.

In the U.S., through peculiarities in national air pollution law, other states have replicated many of California’s regulations and programs so they can race ahead of national policies. States can either follow federal vehicle emissions standards or California’s stricter rules. There is no third option. An increasing number of states now follow California.

So, even though California contributes less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, if it sets a high bar, its many technical, institutional and behavioral innovations will likely spread and be transformative.

What’s in the California blueprint

The new Scoping Plan lays out in considerable detail how California intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 48% below 1990 levels by 2030 and then achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

It calls for a 94% reduction in petroleum use between 2022 and 2045 and an 86% reduction in total fossil fuel use. Overall, it would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2045 relative to 1990 levels. The remaining 15% reduction would come from capturing carbon from the air and fossil fuel plants, and sequestering it below ground or in forests, vegetation and soils.

To achieve these goals, the plan calls for a 37-fold increase in on-road zero-emission vehicles, a sixfold increase in electrical appliances in residences, a fourfold increase in installed wind and solar generation capacity, and doubling total electricity generation to run it all. It also calls for ramping up hydrogen power and altering agriculture and forest management to reduce wildfires, sequester carbon dioxide and reduce fertilizer demand.

This is a massive undertaking, and it implies a massive transformation of many industries and activities.

Transportation: California’s No. 1 emitter

Transportation accounts for about half of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions, including upstream oil refinery emissions. This is where the path forward is perhaps most settled.

The state has already adopted regulations requiring almost all new cars, trucks and buses to have zero emissions – new transit buses by 2029 and most truck sales and light-duty vehicle sales by 2035.

In addition, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard requires oil companies to steadily reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. This regulation aims to ensure that the liquid fuels needed for legacy cars and trucks still on the road after 2045 will be low-carbon biofuels.

But regulations can be modified and even rescinded if opposition swells. If battery costs do not resume their downward slide, if electric utilities and others lag in providing charging infrastructure, and if local opposition blocks new charging sites and grid upgrades, the state could be forced to slow its zero-emission vehicle requirements.

The plan also relies on changes in human behavior. For example, it calls for a 25% reduction in vehicle miles traveled in 2030 compared with 2019, which has far dimmer prospects. The only strategies likely to significantly reduce vehicle use are steep charges for road use and parking, a move few politicians or voters in the U.S. would support, and a massive increase in shared-ride automated vehicles, which are not likely to scale up for at least another 10 years. Additional charges for driving and parking raise concerns about affordability for low-income commuters.

Electricity and electrifying buildings

The key to cutting emissions in almost every sector is electricity powered by renewable energy.

Electrifying most everything means not just replacing most of the state’s natural gas power plants, but also expanding total electricity production – in this case doubling total generation and quadrupling renewable generation, in just 22 years.

That amount of expansion and investment is mind-boggling – and it is the single most important change for reaching net zero, since electric vehicles and appliances depend on the availability of renewable electricity to count as zero emissions.

Electrification of buildings is in the early stages in California, with requirements in place for new homes to have rooftop solar, and incentives and regulations adopted to replace natural gas use with heat pumps and electric appliances.

The biggest and most important challenge is accelerating renewable electricity generation – mostly wind and utility-scale solar. The state has laws in place requiring electricity to be 100% zero emissions by 2045 – up from 52% in 2021.

The plan to get there includes offshore wind power, which will require new technology – floating wind turbines. The federal government in December 2022 leased the first Pacific sites for offshore wind farms, with plans to power over 1.5 million homes. However, years of technical and regulatory work are still ahead.

For solar power, the plan focuses on large solar farms, which can scale up faster and at less cost than rooftop solar. The same week the new scoping plan was announced, California’s Public Utility Commission voted to significantly scale back how much homeowners are reimbursed for solar power they send to the grid, a policy known as net metering. The Public Utility Commission argues that because of how electricity rates are set, generous rooftop solar reimbursements have primarily benefited wealthier households while imposing higher electricity bills on others. It believes this new policy will be more equitable and create a more sustainable model.

Industry and the carbon capture challenge

Industry plays a smaller role, and the policies and strategies here are less refined.

The state’s carbon cap-and-trade program, designed to ratchet down total emissions while allowing individual companies some flexibility, will tighten its emissions limits.

But while cap-and-trade has been effective to date, in part by generating billions of dollars for programs and incentives to reduce emissions, its role may change as energy efficiency improves and additional rules and regulations are put in place to replace fossil fuels.

One of the greatest controversies throughout the Scoping Plan process is its reliance on carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS. The controversy is rooted in concern that CCS allows fossil fuel facilities to continue releasing pollution while only capturing the carbon dioxide emissions. These facilities are often in or near disadvantaged communities.

California’s chances of success

Will California make it? The state has a track record of exceeding its goals, but getting to net zero by 2045 requires a sharper downward trajectory than even California has seen before, and there are still many hurdles.

Environmental justice concerns about carbon capture and new industrial facilities, coupled with NIMBYism, could block many needed investments. And the possibility of sluggish economic growth could led to spending cuts and might exacerbate concerns about economic disruption and affordability.

There are also questions about prices and geopolitics. Will the upturn in battery costs in 2022 – due to geopolitical flare-ups, a lag in expanding the supply of critical materials, and the war in Ukraine – turn out to be a hiccup or a trend? Will electric utilities move fast enough in building the infrastructure and grid capacity needed to accommodate the projected growth in zero-emission cars and trucks?

It is encouraging that the state has already created just about all the needed policy infrastructure. Additional tightening of emissions limits and targets will be needed, but the framework and policy mechanisms are largely in place.

Rajinder Sahota, deputy executive officer of the California Air Resources Board, contributed to this article.

About the Author:

Daniel Sperling, Distinguished Blue Planet Prize Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Founding Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

25 Jan

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Breakouts In Focus

By ForexTime

European shares struggled for direction on Wednesday as investors awaited corporate earnings for fresh directional cues ahead of a busy week for financial markets.

The overall mood has been dampened by mass layoffs in the tech space and signs of slowing global growth. With recession fears sapping risk appetite, stock markets remain vulnerable to further losses. In the currency space, the dollar seems to be drawing strength from risk aversion – dragging other G10 currencies lower. Regarding commodities, oil prices remain shaky while gold has slipped from a nine-month high.

Some trading opportunities may be forming during this period of uneasy calm and growing tension. Our tool of choice this afternoon will be technical analysis with our focus falling on currencies, commodities, and indices.

GBPUSD trapped within range

It has been a choppy affair for the GBPUSD over the past few days. Prices remain trapped within a range with support at 1.2150 and resistance at 1.2450. A breakout could be on the horizon but this may need the assistance of a fresh directional catalyst. Although prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA, bears seem to be back in the vicinity. Prices may test the 1.2150 level in the short to medium term. A breakdown below this point could open a path back toward 1.2000.

USDJPY to resume downside

USDJPY remains under pressure on the weekly timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below 130.00 and could challenge 126.50 in the short to medium term. A strong breakdown below 126.50 may open the doors toward 122.00. If prices are able to push back above 130.00, the next key point can be found at 133.20.

AUDUSD approaches resistance

Aussie bulls continue to draw strength from dollar weakness. After breaking above the 0.7000 level, prices have pushed higher, with 0.7135 acting as a key point of interest. A breakout above this level could suggest an incline towards 0.7250. Should prices slip back below 0.7000, the AUDUSD may decline toward 0.6900.

USDCAD gearing for breakdown?

USDCAD could be on the brink of a breakdown as prices wobble above the 1.3350 support level. A solid move below this point could open the doors towards 1.3240 and potentially lower. Should 1.3350 prove to be reliable support, a rebound back toward 1.3500 could be on the cards.

Gold bull’s still in control

Zooming out on the weekly charts, gold remains firmly bullish on the weekly timeframe. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD trades above zero. A solid breakout and weekly close above $1940 may trigger an incline toward the psychological $2000 level. Should $1940 prove to be a tough nut to crack, the precious metal may dip back toward $1900.

S&P 500 remains rangebound

The S&P500 has been trapped within a wide range since May 2022. May support can be found around 3600 and resistance at 4300 on the monthly timeframe. Given the various fundamental forces influencing global sentiment, a breakout could be on the horizon. A strong breakout above 4300 could open a path towards 4819.5. Alternatively, a selloff below 3600 could signal a further decline towards 3250.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

24 Jan

Is Gold’s Rally Vulnerable, as Fed Readies To Meet?

Source: Adrian Day (1/23/23)

Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management reviews recent results from several resource companies, mostly positive, though cost increases are an issue everywhere.

Gold has moved ahead on expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to slow and then pause its tightening program. There have been several indications of this since the last Fed policy meeting, including chairman Jerome Powell’s comment at his December press conference that the Fed would not start to cut interest rates “until we are convinced that inflation is moving down towards 2%”, a quite different matter than inflation actually being at 2%. Then in the last week, several Fed officials said “not so fast,” but some of those, such as James Bullard, who called for a half-point increase later this month and another full percentage point this year, are no longer voting members of the rate-setting committee.

But we know the Fed, and particularly Mr. Powell, are concerned at markets discounting the Fed’s message. They are less concerned about the gold market than they are about stocks, bonds, and other assets, but certainly, gold is vulnerable to a pullback after the 18% move since early November. A quarter-point rate increase is now seen as almost certain; it is very unlikely to be less than that, so any surprise is likely to be on the upside, that is, negative for markets and gold.

We remain very positive for the balance of the year, but some trimming of gold stocks and certainly caution in new buys, would not be out of place.

Pending Acquisition of Yamana Overshares Pan American’s Solid Quarter

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS:TSX; PAAS:NASDAQ) reported strong production in the last quarter of the year and probably the last full quarter before the acquisition of Yamana, ending a string of disappointing quarterly results. In its preliminary production report, Pan Am said it met its previously reduced guidance, with gold production up 28% on the prior quarter, while silver output rose 5%; zinc and lead, the two primary non-precious metals, also were up meaningfully.

Though the results were positive, they were overshadowed by the pending acquisition of Yamana, which is expected to close sometime this quarter. The deal is accretive for Pan Am and arguably improves the aggregate quality of its mines. We expect to see the company sell some higher-cost or shorter-life assets, thus reducing its purchase cost. Pan Am said it expects to discuss 2023 guidance after the transaction is complete.

Pan American is trading at a discount to both major miners and to other silver-focused companies. Although we are very positive about the stock longer term, especially with the possibility of Escobal in Guatemala coming back online at some point, we are cautious in the near term. We may see some selling from shareholders who own too much of the combined company or Yamana shareholders unhappy with the transaction, and given that Yamana shareholders will hold nearly half of the combined company, this could be meaningful. Hold.

An Osisko Asset Moves Forward

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR:TSX; OR:NYSE) received more good news, with the first resource estimate on Osisko Development’s Tintic project in Utah. The Trixie Zone has 456,000 ounces of gold at an average grade of 23.5 g/t., the resource covering only about 10% of the footprint on limited drilling (50 drill holes). The resource should get to one million ounces, at similar grades, for a high-grade mine expected to commence production in early 2024. Osisko Gold holds a 2.5% metals stream on the project, payable at 25% of the spot prices at delivery; it paid $20 million for the stream.

This is a good example of the benefits that Osisko derives from its offspring. And it is only one of more than a dozen projects advancing this year. Given the strong rally, both since early November (up 34%) and the last few days (traded under $13 on Tuesday), we will wait for a pullback to add. Hold.

Fortuna Delivers Another Solid Quarter

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM:NYSE; FVI:TSX; FVI:BVL; F4S:FSE) also reported a solid fourth quarter, with gold and silver production both in line with full-year guidance, while lead and zinc exceeded guidance somewhat. Gold production was above many analyst expectations, although costs were up, at most mines around 15%, driven by sustaining capital spending. This quarter represents another consecutive quarter where Fortuna’s operations have met or exceeded expectations after a frustrating series of issues in 2021 and early 2022. Construction at Séguéla remains on track, with the first gold expected in the second quarter after mining begins this quarter.

The company is initiating action in Mexico, on both the judicial and political front, over the last reversal of its permit for San Jose. The company is looking for an increase in gold-equivalent ounces this year of between 3% and 15% over last year, driven by a 25% increase in gold as Séguéla comes on stream. Gold production is expected at between 282Kk and 320K, as much as a 23% increase, while silver output is expected to decline by up to 9% to 6.3 million to 6.9 million ounces.

Strong management, a solid balance sheet, a diversified asset base, and growth ahead: Fortuna can be accumulated here and bought aggressively on any dips.

Barrick Disappoints on Production and Costs

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE) had a disappointing quarter, even though it was the strongest for gold production of any this past year. Gold output was up 13% over the prior quarter, but that was not sufficient to save full-year production, which at 4.14 million ounces, was below the low end of the company’s guidance. The company’s assertion last quarter that it would still meet guidance was treated somewhat skeptically by many analysts. Though copper production was down 5% from the prior quarter and below some estimates, it still came in within the full-year guidance range.

Costs were also disappointing; although down slightly from the third quarter, largely due to higher volumes, costs were higher than management was indicating. Given the results, it is likely that the variable quarterly dividend will decline to the base of 10 cents a share. Separately, Barrick announced a time frame for its new Reko Diq copper project in Pakistan, with a feasibility update expected to be completed by the end of next year, with 2028 targeted for the first production, as indicated previously. Barrick is the 50% owner and the operator.

Barrick remains inexpensive, both fundamentally and in relation to his historical average valuations. However, we would like to see a pullback before buying, given the strong rally in recent months (the stock was at $13.10 in early November).

Midland Has Another Busy Year Ahead

Midland Exploration Inc. (MD:TSX.V) released an overview of its exploration plans for the coming year, expecting a budget of over $11 million with 20,000 meters of diamond drilling. Its plans for 2023 are aimed at following up on new discoveries made throughout 2022. Midland is working on several projects in partnership with others, including BHP, Rio Tino, SOQUEM, Probe, and Wallbridge. The company will also advance several of its wholly-owned properties. Given the activity, the strong management, and the balance sheet, Midland is a strong buy at the current level.

TOP BUYS THIS WEEK, in addition to the above, include Orogen Royalties Inc. (OGN:TSX.V). As we have said for the last couple of weeks, we are generally cautious on buying right now, given valuations in the broad market and following the strong gold-stock move in the last couple of months. Patience will pay off!

Adrian Day Disclosures:

Adrian Day’s Global Analyst is distributed for $990 per year by Investment Consultants International, Ltd., P.O. Box 6644, Annapolis, MD 21401. (410) 224-8885. www.AdrianDayGlobalAnalyst.com. Publisher: Adrian Day. Owner: Investment Consultants International, Ltd. Staff may have positions in securities discussed herein. Adrian Day is also President of Global Strategic Management (GSM), a registered investment advisor, and a separate company from this service. In his capacity as GSM president, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein, and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. This is not a solicitation for GSM. Views herein are the editor’s opinion and not fact. All information is believed to be correct, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The owner and editor are not responsible for errors and omissions. © 2022. Adrian Day’s Global Analyst. Information and advice herein are intended purely for the subscriber’s own account. Under no circumstances may any part of a Global Analyst e-mail be copied or distributed without prior written permission of the editor. Given the nature of this service, we will pursue any violations aggressively.

Disclosures:

1) Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: All. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. Funds controlled by Adrian Day Asset Management, which is unaffiliated with Adrian Day’s newsletter, hold shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.

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Metals Opinions

23 Jan

Trade Of The Week: EURUSD In Breakout Mode?

By ForexTime

EURUSD may be gearing up for a major breakout as the technicals and fundamentals continue to align.

Over the past few months, euro bulls dominated the scene – pushing prices further away from parity. It also stood its ground in the G10 space, appreciating against most counterparts thanks to fundamental forces.

The single European currency has already kicked off the trading week punching above 1.09, marking a new high since April 2022! With the strong upside momentum showing little signs of cooling down, further upside could be on the cards – especially with the support of economic data.

As the discussion around interest rates between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central bank (ECB) rages on, this is likely to result in increased volatility for the EURUSD. The Euro continues to draw strength from a weaker dollar, rising inflation in the Eurozone, and most importantly a hawkish ECB. On the other hand, repeated signs of easing inflationary pressures in the United States have fuelled speculation about the Fed slowing down its pace of rate increases. Ultimately, the narrowing monetary policy divergence between both central banks is likely to fuel the upside in the EURUSD.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, the EURUSD remains firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices pressing against 1.0900 as of writing. A solid breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards 1.1200.

The low down…

Christine Lagarde delivered her hawkish message to Davos last week, warning markets not to underestimate the ECB’s monetary policy. Lagarde stated that inflation remained “way too high” with the ECB determined to stay the course on rates till inflation returned to 2%. Markets widely expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month and potentially a similar move in March. However, this may be influenced by economic data and the Ukraine war. Nevertheless, with inflation still at lofty levels, this may keep doves at bay while empowering hawks.

Regarding the Fed, it has kicked off a two-week black period ahead of the rate meeting on Wednesday 1st of February. With Fed speeches out of the picture, the dollar is set to be influenced by key economic reports. If the incoming data continues to fuel dollar weakness, this will add to the growing list of factors pushing the EURUSD higher.

The week ahead

It is a data-heavy week for the EUR and USD.

On Monday, the Euro was knocked lower by the disappointing consumer confidence figures for January. Although consumer confidence rose for a third month to -22.2 in December 2022, this was below market expectations. Appetite towards the single Euro currency could be rekindled if Christine Lagarde strikes a hawkish note during her speech this evening.

Tuesday sees the Eurozone and US January PMI’s which could inject fresh volatility into the EURUSD. On Wednesday, we have the January IFO business climate figure for Germany, and all-important US Q4 GDP figures on Thursday. The first estimate of Q4 GDP is expected to show that economic growth slowed in Q4. According to Bloomberg, forecasts point to an increase of 2.7% compared to the 3.2% growth witnessed in the third quarter of 2022. A disappointing figure may compound the dollar’s woes, dragging prices lower as bets on smaller Fed rate hikes intensify. Much attention will be on the US December personal income data, including the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator. This is expected to cool further to 4.4% year-on-year compared to the 4.7% seen in November. A report that meets or prints below forecast may weaken the USD even further.

EURUSD poised to push higher

In our 2023 market outlook, we highlighted how a weaker dollar could fuel the EURUSD’s great rebound. Fast forward to today, the currency pair has jumped almost 400 pips. Prices remain firmly bullish on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframe. Although 1.0900 may provide some resistance, the fundamentals and technicals favour further upside. A strong monthly close above 1.0900 may signal a move towards 1.1200 in February.

Zooming into the daily charts, there are a couple of smaller checkpoints before prices potentially hit 1.1200, which are 1.0970 and 1.1120. Should 1.0900 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline towards 1.0770 and 1.0700 could be on the table.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

Currency Speculators retreat from US Dollar Index bullish bets to a 78-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,416 contracts) with the British Pound (4,759 contracts), Mexican Peso (4,742 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,696 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (70 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,998 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-3,182 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,292 contracts), Bitcoin (-33 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-571 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the US Dollar Index bullish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the US Dollar Index fell this week for a second straight week and for the third time out of the past five weeks. The speculator’s bullish position has almost fallen by half over the past five weeks going from a total of +25,778 contracts on December 13th to a total of +13,358 contracts this week. These declines have now pushed the Dollar Index to the least bullish level for speculators since July 20th of 2021, a span of 78 weeks.

Since riding a strong bullish wave to a 274-week high on June 14th of 2022 (at +45,010 contracts), the US Dollar Index speculator positioning has been in a slow but steady downtrend that continued this week.

The US Dollar Index futures price has also been in a downtrend after ascending to a multi-year peak in September at the 114.74 level. That marked the best price level for the Dollar Index since 2002 and was the start of the recent slide that has brought the Dollar Index to its current level of 101.78 (for an approximate loss of 11 percent). Since September, most of the major currencies have gained against the Dollar and have made some moderate recoveries after falling to multi-decade lows.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	39,388	44	13,358	47	-15,570	51	2,212	41
EUR	753,915	92	126,984	74	-179,074	25	52,090	62
GBP	201,956	38	-24,697	48	31,436	55	-6,739	45
JPY	176,862	36	-22,961	55	18,084	44	4,877	63
CHF	34,300	16	-7,941	34	11,357	64	-3,416	46
CAD	132,346	18	-27,259	9	27,488	92	-229	30
AUD	128,213	28	-33,620	54	25,936	38	7,684	71
NZD	31,579	10	6,058	70	-6,686	31	628	59
MXN	274,227	84	-48,639	7	42,299	90	6,340	95
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	40,800	28	22,193	70	-23,748	30	1,555	79
Bitcoin	15,885	83	-627	66	337	0	290	20

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (70 percent), Bitcoin (66 percent) and the Japanese Yen (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (7 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (34 percent) and the US Dollar Index (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (52.5 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (47.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (43.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (47.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (35.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (70.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (73.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.2 percent)
Bitcoin (66.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.6 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (21 percent), the Swiss Franc (11 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-19 percent), Bitcoin (-12 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-19.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.9 percent)
EuroFX (0.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-17.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-41.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-50.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-16.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	2.6	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	42.1	7.8
– Net Position:	13,358	-15,570	2,212
– Gross Longs:	31,694	1,031	5,292
– Gross Shorts:	18,336	16,601	3,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	51.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	19.0	-4.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.2	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	79.0	5.6
– Net Position:	126,984	-179,074	52,090
– Gross Longs:	228,279	416,510	94,476
– Gross Shorts:	101,295	595,584	42,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	25.2	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-5.4	27.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	64.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	49.1	15.2
– Net Position:	-24,697	31,436	-6,739
– Gross Longs:	41,469	130,575	24,051
– Gross Shorts:	66,166	99,139	30,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	55.4	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-4.3	5.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	65.0	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	54.7	14.6
– Net Position:	-22,961	18,084	4,877
– Gross Longs:	29,458	114,907	30,761
– Gross Shorts:	52,419	96,823	25,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	44.5	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-27.9	28.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	55.2	33.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	22.1	43.3
– Net Position:	-7,941	11,357	-3,416
– Gross Longs:	3,919	18,933	11,429
– Gross Shorts:	11,860	7,576	14,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	63.7	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-10.7	7.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	57.0	24.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	36.2	24.5
– Net Position:	-27,259	27,488	-229
– Gross Longs:	20,897	75,387	32,211
– Gross Shorts:	48,156	47,899	32,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	91.6	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	3.8	1.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 70 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	55.4	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.5	35.2	14.6
– Net Position:	-33,620	25,936	7,684
– Gross Longs:	28,593	71,052	26,348
– Gross Shorts:	62,213	45,116	18,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	38.2	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-12.6	24.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	50.3	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	71.5	10.4
– Net Position:	6,058	-6,686	628
– Gross Longs:	11,308	15,888	3,903
– Gross Shorts:	5,250	22,574	3,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	30.7	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-30.6	5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	41.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.6	26.1	0.9
– Net Position:	-48,639	42,299	6,340
– Gross Longs:	150,543	113,924	8,681
– Gross Shorts:	199,182	71,625	2,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	90.4	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.2	39.9	5.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	10.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.7	6.2
– Net Position:	22,193	-23,748	1,555
– Gross Longs:	32,429	4,270	4,096
– Gross Shorts:	10,236	28,018	2,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	30.2	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-20.4	-6.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.4	6.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	3.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-627	337	290
– Gross Longs:	12,456	951	1,440
– Gross Shorts:	13,083	614	1,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	80.9	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	44.0	-4.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, Ultra 10-Year Treasuries lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 20.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 166,350 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,640 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is now at a 76.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 15.3 this week. The speculator position registered -52,355 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 20,452 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 74.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 0.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 126,984 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,998 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 72.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 23.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 74,143 net contracts this week with a dip of -5,851 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level sits at a 70.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 33.6 this week.

The speculator position was 6,058 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,292 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -126,321 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,051 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The speculator position was -42,014 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,298 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -545,057 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -133,699 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Coffee speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.4 this week. The speculator position was -26,745 net contracts this week with a decline of -12,006 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.8 this week. The speculator position was -680,655 net contracts this week with a drop of -57,504 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jan

Metals Speculators boosted their Gold Bullish Bets higher for 7th week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (6,011 contracts) with Gold (2,705 contracts) and Silver (2,455 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-7,158 contracts) and Palladium (-261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent streak of gains for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures rose this week for a seventh consecutive week and for the ninth time out of the past eleven weeks. The Gold position has now gone from a multi-year low total of +64,623 contracts on November 1st to a total of +153,240 contracts this week which marks the highest weekly total of the past 29 weeks, dating back to June 28th.

The Gold futures price has been on the move higher since seeing a recent bottom in October around the $1,620.00 level. This week, the Gold futures closed at $1,928.20 per ounce which is the highest close since April and Gold is showing an approximate gain by 18 percent since the October bottom.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	491,818	22	153,240	34	-175,913	65	22,673	37
Silver	131,862	9	31,468	49	-45,367	52	13,899	40
Copper	201,455	42	16,238	49	-22,695	49	6,457	63
Palladium	8,799	16	-2,751	12	2,902	86	-151	33
Platinum	71,144	41	23,544	41	-28,913	59	5,369	40

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

On the downside, Palladium (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (33.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (32.6 percent)
Silver (48.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.1 percent)
Copper (49.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (44.5 percent)
Platinum (40.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.4 percent)
Palladium (11.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.3 percent)

Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (13 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.4 percent)
Silver (13.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.7 percent)
Copper (11.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (-2.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (8.7 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 153,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 150,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	25.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	60.7	5.2
– Net Position:	153,240	-175,913	22,673
– Gross Longs:	246,874	122,814	48,128
– Gross Shorts:	93,634	298,727	25,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	64.8	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-14.2	19.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	32.4	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.8	7.6
– Net Position:	31,468	-45,367	13,899
– Gross Longs:	57,439	42,668	23,983
– Gross Shorts:	25,971	88,035	10,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	52.4	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-12.4	4.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	34.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	46.0	6.7
– Net Position:	16,238	-22,695	6,457
– Gross Longs:	84,910	69,997	19,961
– Gross Shorts:	68,672	92,692	13,504
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	49.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-14.2	21.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	27.9	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	68.5	3.9
– Net Position:	23,544	-28,913	5,369
– Gross Longs:	40,387	19,831	8,162
– Gross Shorts:	16,843	48,744	2,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	59.1	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	1.6	11.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	57.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.4	24.1	16.3
– Net Position:	-2,751	2,902	-151
– Gross Longs:	2,125	5,025	1,285
– Gross Shorts:	4,876	2,123	1,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	86.3	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	14.3	-17.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

21 Jan

Bonds Speculators increased 10-Year Treasury Bearish Bets to 222-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (26,095 contracts) with the Eurodollar (1,683 contracts) also seeing positive a week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-133,699 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-57,504 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-35,008 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-6,620 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,022 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-28,051 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the sharp decline in the 10-Year Treasury Bond speculator positioning. The 10-Year Bond large speculator positions fell this week by a total of -133,699 contracts and have now dropped for four consecutive weeks. The speculator bets have declined in six out of the past seven weeks as well. These last four weeks alone have added a total of -228,114 bearish contracts to the overall bearish position of -545,057 contracts. This weakness has driven the current speculator level to the most bearish point of the past 222 weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2018.

Despite the current speculator sentiment, the 10-Year Bond prices have been edging a little higher since hitting a multi-year low in October. The 10-Year interest rate (rates rise as bond prices fall) is sitting around 3.50 percent currently after peaking in October at just above 4.33 percent.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,891,238	0	-1,053,852	34	1,265,098	64	-211,246	58
FedFunds	1,645,779	59	-86,235	29	105,583	73	-19,348	12
2-Year	2,335,967	25	-462,671	18	452,042	79	10,629	57
Long T-Bond	1,222,141	47	-192,393	22	170,932	72	21,461	70
10-Year	4,018,107	66	-545,057	0	615,855	95	-70,798	63
5-Year	4,159,392	60	-680,655	1	689,573	90	-8,918	79

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (34 percent) and the Fed Funds (29 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (23 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) and 2-Year Bond (18.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.8 percent)
vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (33.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (23.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
Eurodollar (33.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (33.7 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (11 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (-1 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-24 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-9.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-24.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-6.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.9 percent)
Eurodollar (10.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (12.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,053,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,055,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	68.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	47.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-1,053,852	1,265,098	-211,246
– Gross Longs:	452,273	4,061,161	299,890
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,125	2,796,063	511,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	63.8	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-12.1	19.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -86,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	74.7	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-86,235	105,583	-19,348
– Gross Longs:	167,385	1,229,497	30,086
– Gross Shorts:	253,620	1,123,914	49,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	72.7	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	2.2	-30.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -462,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -456,051 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	81.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	62.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-462,671	452,042	10,629
– Gross Longs:	179,898	1,909,141	204,038
– Gross Shorts:	642,569	1,457,099	193,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	79.0	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-11.8	2.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -680,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -57,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -623,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	85.1	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	68.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-680,655	689,573	-8,918
– Gross Longs:	220,650	3,538,627	341,784
– Gross Shorts:	901,305	2,849,054	350,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	90.4	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-9.1	28.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -545,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -133,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -411,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	80.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	65.3	10.7
– Net Position:	-545,057	615,855	-70,798
– Gross Longs:	334,022	3,237,951	360,271
– Gross Shorts:	879,079	2,622,096	431,069
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.0	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	15.8	10.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -126,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	78.4	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	63.5	16.6
– Net Position:	-126,321	224,640	-98,319
– Gross Longs:	155,613	1,178,847	150,997
– Gross Shorts:	281,934	954,207	249,316
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	9.0	-10.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -192,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -157,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	81.3	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	67.4	12.3
– Net Position:	-192,393	170,932	21,461
– Gross Longs:	51,842	994,046	171,647
– Gross Shorts:	244,235	823,114	150,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	71.6	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	28.6	-2.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -385,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -371,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	83.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	59.7	8.4
– Net Position:	-385,428	342,092	43,336
– Gross Longs:	64,109	1,193,027	163,472
– Gross Shorts:	449,537	850,935	120,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	81.9	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	12.9	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

21 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Wheat bets to lowest in 192-weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (38,078 contracts) with Soybeans (28,737 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,640 contracts) and Cocoa (477 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-12,006 contracts), Lean Hogs (-9,862 contracts), Cotton (-9,991 contracts), Sugar (-1,015 contracts), Wheat (-2,298 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,604 contracts) and Live Cattle (-5,851 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued declines in the Wheat speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Wheat fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the twelfth time in the past fifteen weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Wheat (currently at -42,014 contracts) to the most bearish level in the past 192 weeks, dating back to May 14th of 2019.

Wheat prices have been under pressure as well with prices trading at near the lowest levels since 2021. Helping to keep Wheat sentiment and prices down have been better than expected plantings and supply of Wheat in the USA and globally.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-17-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,613,466	19	239,218	9	-255,599	92	16,381	26
Gold	491,818	22	153,240	34	-175,913	65	22,673	37
Silver	131,862	9	31,468	49	-45,367	52	13,899	40
Copper	201,455	42	16,238	49	-22,695	49	6,457	63
Palladium	8,799	16	-2,751	12	2,902	86	-151	33
Platinum	71,144	41	23,544	41	-28,913	59	5,369	40
Natural Gas	1,082,458	24	-177,219	25	146,418	77	30,801	53
Brent	147,172	9	-25,980	62	23,414	37	2,566	44
Heating Oil	269,911	24	18,506	70	-40,612	28	22,106	75
Soybeans	651,328	17	169,065	64	-130,790	48	-38,275	6
Corn	1,251,033	8	271,873	65	-213,798	41	-58,075	11
Coffee	224,829	31	-26,745	0	24,251	100	2,494	34
Sugar	898,526	37	186,698	58	-233,144	36	46,446	65
Wheat	340,830	23	-42,014	0	45,261	100	-3,247	94

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (65 percent), Soybeans (64 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and the Lean Hogs (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (59.9 percent)
Sugar (58.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.5 percent)
Coffee (0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.3 percent)
Soybeans (63.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (43.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (45.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (96.0 percent)
Live Cattle (72.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (79.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (15.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.7 percent)
Cotton (13.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (44.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.2 percent)

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (25 percent) and Live Cattle (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (20 percent), Cocoa (10 percent) and Corn (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-12 percent), Cotton (-8 percent) and Soybean Oil (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-4.7 percent)
Sugar (1.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (-12.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.1 percent)
Soybeans (25.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (25.7 percent)
Live Cattle (23.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (32.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-27.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.8 percent)
Cotton (-8.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.0 percent)
Cocoa (9.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.3 percent)
Wheat (-2.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 271,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 233,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	44.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	61.7	14.1
– Net Position:	271,873	-213,798	-58,075
– Gross Longs:	376,732	558,706	118,719
– Gross Shorts:	104,859	772,504	176,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	41.5	11.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.0	-11.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 186,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,713 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	43.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	69.0	5.0
– Net Position:	186,698	-233,144	46,446
– Gross Longs:	273,666	387,186	91,248
– Gross Shorts:	86,968	620,330	44,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	36.3	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-2.0	4.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	55.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	44.2	3.7
– Net Position:	-26,745	24,251	2,494
– Gross Longs:	44,803	123,565	10,878
– Gross Shorts:	71,548	99,314	8,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	11.3	10.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 169,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	46.4	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	66.4	12.5
– Net Position:	169,065	-130,790	-38,275
– Gross Longs:	216,831	301,985	43,462
– Gross Shorts:	47,766	432,775	81,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	48.3	6.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.4	-23.0	-14.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	49.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	68.8	6.3
– Net Position:	59,495	-71,077	11,582
– Gross Longs:	89,394	187,762	35,188
– Gross Shorts:	29,899	258,839	23,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	55.5	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.9	-3.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 166,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	30.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.6	75.0	6.7
– Net Position:	166,350	-186,133	19,783
– Gross Longs:	181,071	124,549	47,680
– Gross Shorts:	14,721	310,682	27,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-20.3	1.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.2	30.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	51.6	12.5
– Net Position:	74,143	-67,709	-6,434
– Gross Longs:	126,737	95,035	32,866
– Gross Shorts:	52,594	162,744	39,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	20.5	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.7	-21.5	-13.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	37.5	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	43.0	13.1
– Net Position:	15,907	-10,939	-4,968
– Gross Longs:	63,073	74,842	21,157
– Gross Shorts:	47,166	85,781	26,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.8	84.2	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	21.6	32.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	50.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	55.4	5.6
– Net Position:	7,953	-9,382	1,429
– Gross Longs:	56,634	103,146	12,734
– Gross Shorts:	48,681	112,528	11,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.3	86.4	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	7.9	-3.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	45.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	55.8	3.1
– Net Position:	27,698	-31,155	3,457
– Gross Longs:	97,065	138,394	13,026
– Gross Shorts:	69,367	169,549	9,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	56.6	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-9.4	-2.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	41.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	28.4	10.6
– Net Position:	-42,014	45,261	-3,247
– Gross Longs:	86,569	141,956	32,942
– Gross Shorts:	128,583	96,695	36,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	2.8	-1.7

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