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Bonds Speculators take a pause on their 10-Year Treasury Notes bearish bets

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the pullback in the 10-Year Bond bearish bets this week. The speculative position in the 10-Year Bond has risen for two straight weeks following three straight weeks of declines (or rising bearish bets). The last two week’s rise has shaved off over 113,886 contracts from the total bearish position and brings the current standing to the least bearish level of the past five weeks at a total of -263,834 contracts. The 10-Year has been under pressure like most all bond markets as the Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates with an outlook of more rate increases to come. The 10-Year yield (as bond prices fall, yields rise) has been sharping surging to the upside with the close this week right around the 2.50 percent level, marking its highest yield since May of 2019. The speculator’s 10-Year bond pullback this week will likely be short-lived and it will be interesting to see if this latest bout of inflation, growth and central bank rate rises will be enough to finally break the multi-decade bull market for bonds.

The bond markets with higher speculator bets were the 10-Year Bond (57,163 contracts), Fed Funds (91,899 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (50,964 contracts).

The bond markets with lower speculator bets were the 2-Year Bond (-27,015 contracts), Eurodollar (-128,245 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-21,571 contracts), Long US Bond (-11,687 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-32,279 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-22-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	10,832,338	41	-2,656,722	0	3,074,395	100	-417,673	13
FedFunds	2,132,176	81	-13,382	38	29,682	63	-16,300	18
2-Year	2,297,315	20	-47,448	73	126,538	48	-79,090	10
Long T-Bond	1,128,229	36	32,551	95	-5,394	18	-27,157	31
10-Year	3,807,553	51	-263,834	31	464,339	80	-200,505	32
5-Year	3,774,450	36	-296,338	31	544,383	80	-248,045	13

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,656,722 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -128,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,528,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	75.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	47.4	7.4
– Net Position:	-2,656,722	3,074,395	-417,673
– Gross Longs:	451,791	8,204,977	389,102
– Gross Shorts:	3,108,513	5,130,582	806,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	11.0	5.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 91,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	77.0	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	75.6	2.6
– Net Position:	-13,382	29,682	-16,300
– Gross Longs:	150,828	1,640,744	38,998
– Gross Shorts:	164,210	1,611,062	55,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	63.5	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	5.6	-10.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -27,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	73.9	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	68.4	9.6
– Net Position:	-47,448	126,538	-79,090
– Gross Longs:	365,795	1,697,892	140,374
– Gross Shorts:	413,243	1,571,354	219,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	47.5	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	5.2	5.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -296,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 50,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	81.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	67.2	13.7
– Net Position:	-296,338	544,383	-248,045
– Gross Longs:	342,471	3,081,019	268,697
– Gross Shorts:	638,809	2,536,636	516,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	79.7	12.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	21.1	-2.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -263,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 57,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -320,997 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	77.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	65.7	13.2
– Net Position:	-263,834	464,339	-200,505
– Gross Longs:	412,030	2,966,196	302,390
– Gross Shorts:	675,864	2,501,857	502,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	80.0	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	-2.3	18.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -91,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -21,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	80.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	63.9	18.8
– Net Position:	-91,321	214,698	-123,377
– Gross Longs:	125,921	1,045,958	120,546
– Gross Shorts:	217,242	831,260	243,923
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	100.0	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.7	27.0	20.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	72.6	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	73.1	16.3
– Net Position:	32,551	-5,394	-27,157
– Gross Longs:	109,965	819,658	156,236
– Gross Shorts:	77,414	825,052	183,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	18.4	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-18.7	-5.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -298,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -32,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	81.2	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	61.0	9.2
– Net Position:	-298,523	255,630	42,893
– Gross Longs:	70,425	1,026,988	158,649
– Gross Shorts:	368,948	771,358	115,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	40.0	59.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-14.1	8.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

26 Mar

Metals Speculators push Copper bets higher, maintain bullish sentiment

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent rise in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures gained by over +7,700 contracts this week and pushed the current standing back above the +20,000 contract level for the fifth time in the past six weeks. The speculator position had retreated last week by over -12,000 contracts and dropped the standing below the +20,000 contract threshold for the first time since the beginning of February. Copper speculator positioning has now been in a continuous bullish level since June 6th of 2020, a span of ninety-four consecutive weeks. The Copper strength index (the current positioning compared to the speculator positioning of the past three years) has a score slightly above the middle of its range at a 61.7 percent and shows that Copper sentiment is bullish but not currently near the top of its range.

Joining Copper (7,782 contracts) in rising this week was just Platinum (1,883 contracts) while Gold (-13,756 contracts), Silver (-3,607 contracts) and Palladium (-199 contracts) all saw speculator contracts decline for the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-22-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,788,211	0	339,969	3	-380,080	91	40,111	72
Gold	605,191	48	248,032	67	-281,595	32	33,563	59
Silver	155,456	21	47,947	70	-64,557	36	16,610	40
Copper	197,244	24	26,812	62	-34,604	36	7,792	70
Palladium	6,948	2	-1,208	15	238	78	970	100
Platinum	64,000	29	19,815	30	-27,047	70	7,232	63
Natural Gas	1,085,676	1	-149,337	34	107,446	65	41,891	85
Brent	191,138	32	-24,666	70	22,639	31	2,027	37
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	754,382	34	218,636	84	-193,646	20	-24,990	29
Corn	1,526,201	25	519,356	96	-470,715	5	-48,641	15
Coffee	222,172	1	41,851	79	-45,824	24	3,973	16
Sugar	817,462	0	155,796	69	-194,333	31	38,537	55
Wheat	345,345	5	9,490	55	-7,030	34	-2,460	100

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 248,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	25.6	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	72.1	3.3
– Net Position:	248,032	-281,595	33,563
– Gross Longs:	328,660	155,039	53,441
– Gross Shorts:	80,628	436,634	19,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	31.7	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-21.4	25.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	28.5	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	70.0	6.6
– Net Position:	47,947	-64,557	16,610
– Gross Longs:	69,279	44,270	26,925
– Gross Shorts:	21,332	108,827	10,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	35.5	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.6	-31.4	19.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.3	41.5	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	59.1	5.5
– Net Position:	26,812	-34,604	7,792
– Gross Longs:	81,523	81,894	18,568
– Gross Shorts:	54,711	116,498	10,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	35.7	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.2	6.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,932 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	30.0	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	72.3	4.2
– Net Position:	19,815	-27,047	7,232
– Gross Longs:	32,184	19,220	9,888
– Gross Shorts:	12,369	46,267	2,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	70.3	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-14.9	32.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,009 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	46.3	24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	42.8	10.0
– Net Position:	-1,208	238	970
– Gross Longs:	1,973	3,214	1,665
– Gross Shorts:	3,181	2,976	695
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	77.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-4.6	44.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

26 Mar

Soft Commodities Speculators raise Corn bullish bets higher for 5th week, to 46-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the continued gains in Corn futures bets. The speculative net position in the Corn futures has risen for five consecutive weeks with a total rise of +104,864 contracts over that five-week time-frame. These substantial gains have pushed the current net speculator standing to a total of +519,356 contracts and marks the most bullish level of the past forty-six weeks, dating back to May 4th of 2021. The Corn positioning is near the very top of its three-year range as Corn speculator positions hold an extreme bullish strength score at 96.4 percent this week. The speculator strength score is the current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 is bullish extreme and below 20 is bearish extreme.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (12,150 contracts), Soybeans (1,037 contracts), Live Cattle (2,483 contracts) and Cotton (4,033 contracts).

The soft commodities that saw declining bets this week were Sugar (-784 contracts), Coffee (-3,649 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,359 contracts), Soybean Meal (-1,471 contracts), Cocoa (-1,487 contracts), Lean Hogs (-2,505 contracts) and Wheat (-1,440 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-22-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,788,211	0	339,969	3	-380,080	91	40,111	72
Gold	605,191	48	248,032	67	-281,595	32	33,563	59
Silver	155,456	21	47,947	70	-64,557	36	16,610	40
Copper	197,244	24	26,812	62	-34,604	36	7,792	70
Palladium	6,948	2	-1,208	15	238	78	970	100
Platinum	64,000	29	19,815	30	-27,047	70	7,232	63
Natural Gas	1,085,676	1	-149,337	34	107,446	65	41,891	85
Brent	191,138	32	-24,666	70	22,639	31	2,027	37
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	754,382	34	218,636	84	-193,646	20	-24,990	29
Corn	1,526,201	25	519,356	96	-470,715	5	-48,641	15
Coffee	222,172	1	41,851	79	-45,824	24	3,973	16
Sugar	817,462	0	155,796	69	-194,333	31	38,537	55
Wheat	345,345	5	9,490	55	-7,030	34	-2,460	100

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 519,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 507,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	44.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.2	75.2	12.1
– Net Position:	519,356	-470,715	-48,641
– Gross Longs:	582,844	676,718	135,850
– Gross Shorts:	63,488	1,147,433	184,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	4.9	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-12.5	-6.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 155,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	51.4	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	75.1	6.1
– Net Position:	155,796	-194,333	38,537
– Gross Longs:	212,075	419,942	88,696
– Gross Shorts:	56,279	614,275	50,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	31.3	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-18.5	25.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	53.2	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.0	73.8	2.8
– Net Position:	41,851	-45,824	3,973
– Gross Longs:	53,000	118,138	10,190
– Gross Shorts:	11,149	163,962	6,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	24.0	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.2	20.8	-9.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 218,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 217,599 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	44.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.2	70.6	10.4
– Net Position:	218,636	-193,646	-24,990
– Gross Longs:	265,191	338,902	53,105
– Gross Shorts:	46,555	532,548	78,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	20.3	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-4.1	14.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	48.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.0	81.0	4.8
– Net Position:	92,568	-111,498	18,930
– Gross Longs:	110,061	169,898	35,595
– Gross Shorts:	17,493	281,396	16,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	24.0	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.3	-16.9	26.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 128,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	41.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.1	81.8	4.7
– Net Position:	128,784	-157,051	28,267
– Gross Longs:	140,982	163,690	46,858
– Gross Shorts:	12,198	320,741	18,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	11.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.2	1.3	83.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-12.8	8.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	41.8	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	53.9	13.6
– Net Position:	46,739	-37,444	-9,295
– Gross Longs:	108,953	129,408	32,699
– Gross Shorts:	62,214	166,852	41,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	77.1	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	24.3	8.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	35.9	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	52.3	13.3
– Net Position:	45,985	-37,830	-8,155
– Gross Longs:	86,563	83,339	22,630
– Gross Shorts:	40,578	121,169	30,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	48.8	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	20.3	17.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	37.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	81.1	3.2
– Net Position:	87,354	-101,015	13,661
– Gross Longs:	100,659	85,918	20,968
– Gross Shorts:	13,305	186,933	7,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	18.9	98.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	5.3	4.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	47.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	63.8	3.3
– Net Position:	31,204	-40,535	9,331
– Gross Longs:	72,893	116,511	17,572
– Gross Shorts:	41,689	157,046	8,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	46.5	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	6.5	48.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	42.0	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	44.1	10.1
– Net Position:	9,490	-7,030	-2,460
– Gross Longs:	113,410	145,144	32,492
– Gross Shorts:	103,920	152,174	34,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.1	34.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-14.6	10.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Soft Commodities

19 Mar

Large Forex Speculators boosted their bets of Commodity Currencies this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the strong speculator sentiment for the commodity currencies in the currency futures contracts. The Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar all saw boosts in their bets that either pushed their bullish standings higher or sharply reduced their bearish levels this week.

The Australian dollar saw the largest improvement with a huge net gain of over +33,000 contracts this week which marked the largest one-week increase in the past three hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating all the way back to March of 2015. This week’s gain dropped the AUD’s current bearish standing down to -44,856 contracts from approximately -78,000 contracts in the previous week.

The New Zealand dollar contracts saw a one-week gain of +16,032 contracts which marked its largest one-week rise in the past one hundred and seventeen weeks (back to December of 2017). This rise brought the NZD speculator positions out of bearish territory for the first time in fourteen weeks to a very small bullish level of +3,653 contracts.

Finally, the Canadian dollar contracts increased by a net position of +10,094 contracts this week after falling in four out of the previous five weeks. This climb in speculative bets brings the current CAD bullish standing to the best level of the past six weeks.

Overall, the currency markets with higher speculator bets this week were the New Zealand dollar (16,032 contracts), Canadian dollar (10,094 contracts), Swiss franc (4,481 contracts) and the Australian dollar (33,339 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-5,664 contracts), Mexican peso (-63,593 contracts), Euro (-40,050 contracts), Japanese yen (-6,484 contracts), Brazil real (-6,333 contracts), British pound sterling (-16,535 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and Bitcoin (-75 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	47,574	62	28,380	75	-31,969	21	3,589	56
EUR	666,010	70	18,794	41	-42,629	64	23,835	14
GBP	188,323	31	-29,061	53	37,279	52	-8,218	39
JPY	215,484	65	-62,340	29	87,597	80	-25,257	0
CHF	43,356	19	-5,229	61	17,460	50	-12,231	27
CAD	143,863	26	17,740	65	-13,145	50	-4,595	21
AUD	124,521	25	-44,856	43	48,640	55	-3,784	43
NZD	39,200	23	3,653	77	-1,815	28	-1,838	31
MXN	102,749	4	-10,576	23	7,848	76	2,728	55
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	68,874	65	44,163	94	-46,800	6	2,637	97
Bitcoin	10,198	53	190	98	-453	0	263	19

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 28,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.6	3.1	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	70.3	3.5
– Net Position:	28,380	-31,969	3,589
– Gross Longs:	39,767	1,452	5,242
– Gross Shorts:	11,387	33,421	1,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.7	21.5	55.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	16.5	-40.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	61.8	7.7
– Net Position:	18,794	-42,629	23,835
– Gross Longs:	202,040	369,253	75,191
– Gross Shorts:	183,246	411,882	51,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	63.7	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	4.2	-6.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	66.9	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	47.1	16.9
– Net Position:	-29,061	37,279	-8,218
– Gross Longs:	32,442	125,994	23,650
– Gross Shorts:	61,503	88,715	31,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	51.7	38.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	5.0	-6.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	75.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	35.0	18.9
– Net Position:	-62,340	87,597	-25,257
– Gross Longs:	34,016	163,089	15,533
– Gross Shorts:	96,356	75,492	40,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	79.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	4.1	-13.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	66.3	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	26.1	48.4
– Net Position:	-5,229	17,460	-12,231
– Gross Longs:	5,808	28,761	8,768
– Gross Shorts:	11,037	11,301	20,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.8	50.5	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	1.0	-11.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	41.3	20.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	50.4	23.5
– Net Position:	17,740	-13,145	-4,595
– Gross Longs:	47,406	59,344	29,213
– Gross Shorts:	29,666	72,489	33,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	50.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	9.0	-23.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 33,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	62.3	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	23.3	18.6
– Net Position:	-44,856	48,640	-3,784
– Gross Longs:	24,281	77,621	19,378
– Gross Shorts:	69,137	28,981	23,162
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.2	55.2	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.4	-35.4	30.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.8	37.4	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	42.1	10.9
– Net Position:	3,653	-1,815	-1,838
– Gross Longs:	21,493	14,671	2,417
– Gross Shorts:	17,840	16,486	4,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	27.6	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.8	-24.4	5.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,576 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -63,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	55.1	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	47.5	3.5
– Net Position:	-10,576	7,848	2,728
– Gross Longs:	39,164	56,610	6,302
– Gross Shorts:	49,740	48,762	3,574
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.8	76.1	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.9	-1.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 44,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.1	13.7	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	81.7	2.3
– Net Position:	44,163	-46,800	2,637
– Gross Longs:	55,181	9,444	4,239
– Gross Shorts:	11,018	56,244	1,602
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.8	5.6	97.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	56.5	-55.9	-3.0

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	60.6	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	0.5	94.7	4.7
– Net Position:	7,543	-7,150	-393
– Gross Longs:	7,658	12,679	593
– Gross Shorts:	115	19,829	986
– Long to Short Ratio:	66.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	69.1	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	16.7	-18.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -75 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.3	2.7	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.5	7.2	7.5
– Net Position:	190	-453	263
– Gross Longs:	7,989	279	1,029
– Gross Shorts:	7,799	732	766
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.4	5.1	18.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	3.0	-2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News Opinions

19 Mar

Bonds Speculators continue to raise Eurodollar bearish bets to 170-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the steady rise in the Eurodollar bearish bets. Eurodollar futures speculator bets fell for a second consecutive week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. This has brought the current net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and seventy weeks, dating back to December of 2018. The Eurodollar futures are the largest futures market as open interest in these contracts usually numbers over 10 million contracts (sometimes three times more than the second highest market) and are used to wager or hedge on short-term interest rates (3-month Libor). A declining Eurodollar futures contract shows a rise in (deposit) interest rates while a gaining Eurodollar futures contract shows the opposite. In times of financial upheaval or strong risk-off situations such as the Great Financial Crisis or the recent Covid Crisis, Eurodollar futures have seen strong trends higher and in times of normalization and rising interest rates, Eurodollar futures typically trend downward. The current path to normal interest rates (off the near-zero floor for the Fed Funds) is happening at the moment and the Eurodollar speculator positions are reflecting that with their multi-year lows.

The bond markets with higher speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (92,313 contracts), 10-Year Bond (56,723 contracts), Fed Funds (32,857 contracts), 5-Year (104,839 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (18,174 contracts).

The bond markets with lower speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-143,781 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-35,370 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-3,130 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	10,624,293	37	-2,528,477	0	2,952,797	100	-424,320	11
FedFunds	2,057,322	76	-105,281	27	120,855	75	-15,574	20
2-Year	2,155,448	15	-20,433	78	89,684	39	-69,251	14
Long T-Bond	1,118,301	35	44,238	99	-29,752	11	-14,486	41
10-Year	3,561,445	34	-320,997	23	512,812	86	-191,815	34
5-Year	3,796,317	37	-347,302	22	590,098	85	-242,796	14

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,528,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -143,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,384,696 net contracts.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	76.6	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	48.8	7.6
– Net Position:	-2,528,477	2,952,797	-424,320
– Gross Longs:	421,782	8,135,944	386,903
– Gross Shorts:	2,950,259	5,183,147	811,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	11.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	7.6	3.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -105,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 32,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.4	78.3	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	72.4	2.2
– Net Position:	-105,281	120,855	-15,574
– Gross Longs:	70,601	1,610,540	30,462
– Gross Shorts:	175,882	1,489,685	46,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.6	74.6	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	15.8	19.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 92,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	76.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	72.1	9.6
– Net Position:	-20,433	89,684	-69,251
– Gross Longs:	312,101	1,644,077	138,269
– Gross Shorts:	332,534	1,554,393	207,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	39.4	14.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	7.8	14.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -347,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 104,839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -452,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	82.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	66.8	13.0
– Net Position:	-347,302	590,098	-242,796
– Gross Longs:	335,536	3,125,740	251,950
– Gross Shorts:	682,838	2,535,642	494,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	85.2	14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.8	22.3	11.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -320,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 56,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	79.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	65.5	14.1
– Net Position:	-320,997	512,812	-191,815
– Gross Longs:	293,043	2,843,812	311,433
– Gross Shorts:	614,040	2,331,000	503,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	86.0	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	-6.3	22.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	79.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	64.5	18.8
– Net Position:	-69,750	198,122	-128,372
– Gross Longs:	137,331	1,038,528	116,422
– Gross Shorts:	207,081	840,406	244,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	99.8	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.9	28.3	27.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	72.1	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	74.7	15.3
– Net Position:	44,238	-29,752	-14,486
– Gross Longs:	125,767	805,967	156,315
– Gross Shorts:	81,529	835,719	170,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.0	10.7	41.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.3	-27.8	5.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -266,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -284,418 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	80.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	61.9	9.3
– Net Position:	-266,244	228,742	37,502
– Gross Longs:	87,587	1,008,627	154,454
– Gross Shorts:	353,831	779,885	116,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	26.8	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-39.2	9.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions

19 Mar

Gold Speculators reduce bullish bets after surge to 61-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT metals data is this week’s pullback in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures retreated this week after surging higher and gaining by a total of +102,246 net contracts over the previous five weeks. The recent boost in the speculator sentiment had pushed the Gold bullish position to its highest level in the previous sixty-one weeks. This week saw a modest pullback from the highs of last week but keeps the total Gold speculator sentiment in a strong bullish position above the +250,000 net contract level for a third consecutive week. Gold prices, meanwhile, have retreated from their highs of the past couple weeks and sit right at a support line at the $1920 spot price level currently which sets up an interesting situation going forward between the bulls and bears.

Joining Gold (-12,600 contracts) in lower speculator bets this week were Silver (-743 contracts), Copper (-12,789 contracts), Platinum (-7,901 contracts) and Palladium (-737 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,850,794	0	341,815	4	-382,602	90	40,787	72
Gold	617,605	51	261,788	71	-297,441	27	35,653	65
Silver	159,571	25	51,554	74	-67,579	33	16,025	36
Copper	183,170	14	19,030	56	-26,717	41	7,687	70
Palladium	6,992	2	-1,009	16	220	78	789	91
Platinum	67,727	35	17,932	28	-25,692	72	7,760	70
Natural Gas	1,082,746	0	-146,560	35	105,856	64	40,704	82
Brent	192,679	34	-18,961	79	17,343	22	1,618	31
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	745,345	32	217,599	84	-193,958	20	-23,641	31
Corn	1,504,159	22	507,206	95	-468,758	5	-38,448	21
Coffee	224,693	3	45,500	82	-48,838	22	3,338	11
Sugar	818,877	1	156,580	69	-188,036	33	31,456	47
Wheat	339,904	2	10,930	56	-5,252	36	-5,678	91

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 274,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	24.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.6	3.0
– Net Position:	261,788	-297,441	35,653
– Gross Longs:	346,731	151,045	54,330
– Gross Shorts:	84,943	448,486	18,677
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	26.9	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-29.3	18.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	27.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	70.1	6.4
– Net Position:	51,554	-67,579	16,025
– Gross Longs:	74,044	44,324	26,270
– Gross Shorts:	22,490	111,903	10,245
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	32.6	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.4	-31.7	16.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,819 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	42.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	56.6	5.6
– Net Position:	19,030	-26,717	7,687
– Gross Longs:	73,338	76,948	17,878
– Gross Shorts:	54,308	103,665	10,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	41.1	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-3.9	16.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.0	29.7	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	67.6	3.8
– Net Position:	17,932	-25,692	7,760
– Gross Longs:	33,833	20,085	10,326
– Gross Shorts:	15,901	45,777	2,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.7	72.3	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-8.5	35.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	47.7	21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	44.5	9.8
– Net Position:	-1,009	220	789
– Gross Longs:	2,085	3,334	1,473
– Gross Shorts:	3,094	3,114	684
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.8	77.7	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-4.3	44.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

19 Mar

WTI Crude Oil Speculator bullish bets slide lower 7th time in 8 weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the pullback in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures dropped this week for a second consecutive week and has fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks. The spec crude position has declined by a total of -43,966 contracts over the past eight weeks and speculator bets are now at a three-week low. The speculator strength index, current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 percent is bullish extreme and below 20 percent is bearish extreme, shows that speculator bets are extremely bearish right now compared to the past with a strength score of just 3.5 percent.

The energy market with higher speculator bets was just the Bloomberg Commodity Index (3,789 contracts).

The energy markets with lower speculator bets were WTI Crude Oil (-19,850 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-7,249 contracts), Natural Gas (-8,147 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and the Gasoline (-3,298 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,850,794	0	341,815	4	-382,602	90	40,787	72
Gold	617,605	51	261,788	71	-297,441	27	35,653	65
Silver	159,571	25	51,554	74	-67,579	33	16,025	36
Copper	183,170	14	19,030	56	-26,717	41	7,687	70
Palladium	6,992	2	-1,009	16	220	78	789	91
Platinum	67,727	35	17,932	28	-25,692	72	7,760	70
Natural Gas	1,082,746	0	-146,560	35	105,856	64	40,704	82
Brent	192,679	34	-18,961	79	17,343	22	1,618	31
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	745,345	32	217,599	84	-193,958	20	-23,641	31
Corn	1,504,159	22	507,206	95	-468,758	5	-38,448	21
Coffee	224,693	3	45,500	82	-48,838	22	3,338	11
Sugar	818,877	1	156,580	69	-188,036	33	31,456	47
Wheat	339,904	2	10,930	56	-5,252	36	-5,678	91

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 341,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 361,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	37.8	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	58.5	2.3
– Net Position:	341,815	-382,602	40,787
– Gross Longs:	444,601	700,410	83,830
– Gross Shorts:	102,786	1,083,012	43,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	90.4	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	12.8	-7.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	41.3	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	32.3	3.2
– Net Position:	-18,961	17,343	1,618
– Gross Longs:	42,390	79,663	7,742
– Gross Shorts:	61,351	62,320	6,124
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	22.2	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	2.7	-21.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -146,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	43.3	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	33.5	2.0
– Net Position:	-146,560	105,856	40,704
– Gross Longs:	240,482	468,705	62,435
– Gross Shorts:	387,042	362,849	21,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	64.3	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	4.9	27.7

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	52.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	69.5	5.4
– Net Position:	43,602	-48,914	5,312
– Gross Longs:	76,383	151,239	20,732
– Gross Shorts:	32,781	200,153	15,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	88.1	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.1	27.7	-35.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	50.8	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	60.1	6.9
– Net Position:	6,455	-32,434	25,979
– Gross Longs:	59,340	177,626	50,210
– Gross Shorts:	52,885	210,060	24,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	36.7	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-10.3	23.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	18.5	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.5	1.2	0.1
– Net Position:	-10,780	9,985	795
– Gross Longs:	28,304	10,697	859
– Gross Shorts:	39,084	712	64
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	15.0 to 1	13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	31.7	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-16.4	4.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Opinions

19 Mar

Soft Commodities Speculator’s Soybean Meal bullish bets rise for 7th week to 197-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the continued surge in Soybean Meal futures bets. The speculative net position in the Soybean Meal futures has gained for seven consecutive weeks with a total rise of +51,237 contracts over that time-frame. This has pushed the current net standing to over +130,000 net contracts and to the most bullish level in the past one hundred and ninety-seven weeks, dating all the way back to June 5th of 2018. The positive speculator sentiment has now boosted the speculator strength index to the top of its range with a 100 percent score and a bullish-extreme reading (strength index is current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme).

The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (9,173 contracts), Sugar (5,504 contracts), Soybeans (1,022 contracts), Soybean Oil (6,245 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,651 contracts), Live Cattle (4,689 contracts) and Cocoa (2,929 contracts).

The soft commodities that saw lower bets this week were Coffee (-6,613 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,035 contracts), Cotton (-3,510 contracts) and Wheat (-1,695 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,850,794	0	341,815	4	-382,602	90	40,787	72
Gold	617,605	51	261,788	71	-297,441	27	35,653	65
Silver	159,571	25	51,554	74	-67,579	33	16,025	36
Copper	183,170	14	19,030	56	-26,717	41	7,687	70
Palladium	6,992	2	-1,009	16	220	78	789	91
Platinum	67,727	35	17,932	28	-25,692	72	7,760	70
Natural Gas	1,082,746	0	-146,560	35	105,856	64	40,704	82
Brent	192,679	34	-18,961	79	17,343	22	1,618	31
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	745,345	32	217,599	84	-193,958	20	-23,641	31
Corn	1,504,159	22	507,206	95	-468,758	5	-38,448	21
Coffee	224,693	3	45,500	82	-48,838	22	3,338	11
Sugar	818,877	1	156,580	69	-188,036	33	31,456	47
Wheat	339,904	2	10,930	56	-5,252	36	-5,678	91

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 507,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 498,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	44.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.3	76.0	11.3
– Net Position:	507,206	-468,758	-38,448
– Gross Longs:	571,419	673,921	132,114
– Gross Shorts:	64,213	1,142,679	170,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.8	5.2	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-8.7	5.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 156,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	51.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	74.5	6.9
– Net Position:	156,580	-188,036	31,456
– Gross Longs:	209,848	422,056	87,859
– Gross Shorts:	53,268	610,092	56,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	32.5	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-13.4	9.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,113 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	51.9	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	73.6	3.1
– Net Position:	45,500	-48,838	3,338
– Gross Longs:	58,040	116,559	10,359
– Gross Shorts:	12,540	165,397	7,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	21.6	11.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	13.0	-4.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 217,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 216,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	44.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	70.1	10.1
– Net Position:	217,599	-193,958	-23,641
– Gross Longs:	265,949	328,524	51,470
– Gross Shorts:	48,350	522,482	75,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	20.2	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-9.0	24.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	49.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.7	81.7	5.2
– Net Position:	97,927	-113,307	15,380
– Gross Longs:	114,193	169,475	33,229
– Gross Shorts:	16,266	282,782	17,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	23.1	70.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-13.4	11.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 130,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	42.2	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.6	83.9	4.8
– Net Position:	130,255	-159,488	29,233
– Gross Longs:	140,002	161,042	47,423
– Gross Shorts:	9,747	320,530	18,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	14.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	87.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-16.9	4.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 44,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	42.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	53.7	12.8
– Net Position:	44,256	-35,043	-9,213
– Gross Longs:	108,642	132,992	30,710
– Gross Shorts:	64,386	168,035	39,923
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	79.1	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	18.6	-3.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 48,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	35.7	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	52.9	12.5
– Net Position:	48,490	-40,705	-7,785
– Gross Longs:	87,555	84,755	21,909
– Gross Shorts:	39,065	125,460	29,694
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	45.4	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	7.6	23.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 83,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	40.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	82.9	3.3
– Net Position:	83,321	-93,450	10,129
– Gross Longs:	96,108	89,048	17,343
– Gross Shorts:	12,787	182,498	7,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	23.4	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	10.3	-12.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	49.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	66.3	3.3
– Net Position:	32,691	-41,335	8,644
– Gross Longs:	71,870	117,753	16,620
– Gross Shorts:	39,179	159,088	7,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	42.0	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-8.9	49.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	43.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	44.9	10.7
– Net Position:	10,930	-5,252	-5,678
– Gross Longs:	110,614	147,417	30,713
– Gross Shorts:	99,684	152,669	36,391
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	35.7	91.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-10.1	-1.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Soft Commodities

12 Mar

COT Currency Speculators boost Mexican Peso bullish bets to 104-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising bullish sentiment in the Mexican Peso currency futures contracts. Peso speculators have boosted their bullish bets for six consecutive weeks and in nine out of the past ten weeks. Over the past six-week time-frame, Peso bets have gained by a total of +53.807 contracts, going from -790 net positions on January 25th to +53,017 net positions this week. This recent improvement in Peso positioning pushed the current net speculator standing (+53,017 contracts) to the most bullish level in the past one hundred and four weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020.

Joining the Mexican peso (10,639 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (12,876 contracts), Brazil real (48 contracts), Swiss franc (5,538 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,793 contracts), Australian dollar (141 contracts) and Bitcoin (185 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-730 contracts), Euro (-6,095 contracts), British pound sterling (-12,189 contracts), Canadian dollar (-6,494 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-1,868 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	62,447	95	34,044	85	-37,890	12	3,846	59
EUR	738,990	98	58,844	53	-83,873	52	25,029	16
GBP	246,312	68	-12,526	65	25,457	45	-12,931	29
JPY	208,683	61	-55,856	33	76,657	74	-20,801	5
CHF	51,820	30	-9,710	53	21,942	56	-12,232	27
CAD	149,425	30	7,646	55	-15,494	46	7,848	45
AUD	197,094	80	-78,195	12	78,183	77	12	52
NZD	53,250	50	-12,379	50	13,592	51	-1,213	38
MXN	166,433	34	53,017	50	-55,194	50	2,177	52
RUB	22,420	7	7,806	32	-7,325	69	-481	22
BRL	68,623	65	50,496	100	-52,564	0	2,068	90
Bitcoin	9,591	48	265	100	-422	0	157	17

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.7	12.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	73.4	2.9
– Net Position:	34,044	-37,890	3,846
– Gross Longs:	46,031	7,962	5,642
– Gross Shorts:	11,987	45,852	1,796
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.5	11.6	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	7.7	-19.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	52.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	63.7	8.2
– Net Position:	58,844	-83,873	25,029
– Gross Longs:	242,683	386,654	85,727
– Gross Shorts:	183,839	470,527	60,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	52.0	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-7.8	0.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -337 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	66.8	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	56.4	14.6
– Net Position:	-12,526	25,457	-12,931
– Gross Longs:	50,982	164,423	23,076
– Gross Shorts:	63,508	138,966	36,007
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	44.7	28.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.1	-8.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	81.6	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	44.9	18.1
– Net Position:	-55,856	76,657	-20,801
– Gross Longs:	15,548	170,330	16,884
– Gross Shorts:	71,404	93,673	37,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	74.3	4.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-3.1	-13.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	70.7	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	28.4	40.9
– Net Position:	-9,710	21,942	-12,232
– Gross Longs:	4,856	36,635	8,947
– Gross Shorts:	14,566	14,693	21,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	55.5	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	9.6	-22.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,140 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	41.7	22.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	52.1	17.5
– Net Position:	7,646	-15,494	7,848
– Gross Longs:	48,492	62,360	33,951
– Gross Shorts:	40,846	77,854	26,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.1	46.4	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	2.8	1.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	74.1	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.6	34.5	13.0
– Net Position:	-78,195	78,183	12
– Gross Longs:	19,521	146,144	25,564
– Gross Shorts:	97,716	67,961	25,552
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	77.2	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-14.6	35.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	62.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	36.5	7.5
– Net Position:	-12,379	13,592	-1,213
– Gross Longs:	15,775	33,005	2,792
– Gross Shorts:	28,154	19,413	4,005
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.3	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	0.5	14.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	36.4	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	69.5	2.1
– Net Position:	53,017	-55,194	2,177
– Gross Longs:	76,020	60,537	5,674
– Gross Shorts:	23,003	115,731	3,497
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	49.8	52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-22.4	-0.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 48 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,448 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	15.3	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.9	91.9	2.1
– Net Position:	50,496	-52,564	2,068
– Gross Longs:	54,543	10,468	3,488
– Gross Shorts:	4,047	63,032	1,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	13.5 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	62.0	-62.3	8.4

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	60.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	1.6	93.3	5.1
– Net Position:	7,806	-7,325	-481
– Gross Longs:	8,173	13,590	657
– Gross Shorts:	367	20,915	1,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	22.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.9	68.7	21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-7.0	-22.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.9	2.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.1	7.2	8.3
– Net Position:	265	-422	157
– Gross Longs:	7,760	272	950
– Gross Shorts:	7,495	694	793
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	7.6	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	4.5	-8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Mar

COT Bonds Futures Speculators push 10-Year Treasury Notes to 108-week bearish high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the continued bearishness in the 10-Year Bond futures. The speculative position in the 10-Year has seen bearish bets increase for three straight weeks and by a total of -203,657 contracts over this period. This rising bearishness has pushed the 10-Year speculator standing to the most bearish level in the past one hundred and eight weeks, dating back to February 11th of 2020 when the speculator position totaled -398,919 net contracts. The current 10-Year speculator strength index score underscores the weak speculator sentiment and shows an extreme-bearish reading with a 13.9 percent score this week. (The speculator strength index measures the current speculator standing compared to past three years, where above 80 is extreme-bullish , below 20 is extreme-bearish).

The bond markets with higher speculator bets were Long US Bond (51,897 contracts), Fed Funds (1,134 contracts), 5-Year (21,898 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (50,843 contracts).

The markets with lower speculator bets were the 2-Year Bond (-1,919 contracts), Eurodollar (-164,965 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-11,937 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (-40,563 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	11,104,557	47	-2,384,696	0	2,824,449	100	-439,753	8
FedFunds	1,956,224	69	-138,138	23	154,041	79	-15,903	21
2-Year	2,035,833	10	-112,746	59	185,172	60	-72,426	13
Long T-Bond	1,114,679	34	47,368	100	-28,607	11	-18,761	38
10-Year	3,627,534	38	-377,720	14	587,471	95	-209,751	30
5-Year	3,845,499	39	-452,141	4	711,489	100	-259,348	10

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,384,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -164,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,219,731 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	75.8	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	50.3	7.6
– Net Position:	-2,384,696	2,824,449	-439,753
– Gross Longs:	514,260	8,413,589	405,813
– Gross Shorts:	2,898,956	5,589,140	845,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.9	7.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.5	-4.0

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -138,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.4	79.8	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	71.9	2.2
– Net Position:	-138,138	154,041	-15,903
– Gross Longs:	46,020	1,561,469	26,372
– Gross Shorts:	184,158	1,407,428	42,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	78.6	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.2	21.9	18.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -112,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	78.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	69.5	10.3
– Net Position:	-112,746	185,172	-72,426
– Gross Longs:	253,295	1,600,373	136,835
– Gross Shorts:	366,041	1,415,201	209,261
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	60.3	12.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	33.3	-3.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -452,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -474,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.1	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	64.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-452,141	711,489	-259,348
– Gross Longs:	308,793	3,194,985	261,858
– Gross Shorts:	760,934	2,483,496	521,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.8	100.0	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-54.7	37.7	0.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -377,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,937 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -365,783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	80.1	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	63.9	14.1
– Net Position:	-377,720	587,471	-209,751
– Gross Longs:	305,324	2,904,848	301,231
– Gross Shorts:	683,044	2,317,377	510,982
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	95.2	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	10.7	6.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -34,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -40,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	77.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	65.5	18.7
– Net Position:	-34,380	156,564	-122,184
– Gross Longs:	154,635	1,006,050	119,951
– Gross Shorts:	189,015	849,486	242,135
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	88.2	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.0	20.8	32.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 47,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 51,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	71.5	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	74.1	15.5
– Net Position:	47,368	-28,607	-18,761
– Gross Longs:	132,656	797,310	154,047
– Gross Shorts:	85,288	825,917	172,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	11.0	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.3	-32.8	-6.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -284,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 50,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -335,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	80.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	60.5	9.3
– Net Position:	-284,418	252,520	31,898
– Gross Longs:	83,173	1,004,968	147,181
– Gross Shorts:	367,591	752,448	115,283
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	38.5	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.0	-29.3	0.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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