WTI Crude Oil Speculator bullish bets slide lower 7th time in 8 weeks

March 19, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the pullback in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures dropped this week for a second consecutive week and has fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks. The spec crude position has declined by a total of -43,966 contracts over the past eight weeks and speculator bets are now at a three-week low. The speculator strength index, current speculator standing compared to past three years where above 80 percent is bullish extreme and below 20 percent is bearish extreme, shows that speculator bets are extremely bearish right now compared to the past with a strength score of just 3.5 percent.

The energy market with higher speculator bets was just the Bloomberg Commodity Index (3,789 contracts).

The energy markets with lower speculator bets were WTI Crude Oil (-19,850 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-7,249 contracts), Natural Gas (-8,147 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and the Gasoline (-3,298 contracts).


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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-15-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,850,794 0 341,815 4 -382,602 90 40,787 72
Gold 617,605 51 261,788 71 -297,441 27 35,653 65
Silver 159,571 25 51,554 74 -67,579 33 16,025 36
Copper 183,170 14 19,030 56 -26,717 41 7,687 70
Palladium 6,992 2 -1,009 16 220 78 789 91
Platinum 67,727 35 17,932 28 -25,692 72 7,760 70
Natural Gas 1,082,746 0 -146,560 35 105,856 64 40,704 82
Brent 192,679 34 -18,961 79 17,343 22 1,618 31
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 745,345 32 217,599 84 -193,958 20 -23,641 31
Corn 1,504,159 22 507,206 95 -468,758 5 -38,448 21
Coffee 224,693 3 45,500 82 -48,838 22 3,338 11
Sugar 818,877 1 156,580 69 -188,036 33 31,456 47
Wheat 339,904 2 10,930 56 -5,252 36 -5,678 91

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 341,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 361,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 37.8 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 58.5 2.3
– Net Position: 341,815 -382,602 40,787
– Gross Longs: 444,601 700,410 83,830
– Gross Shorts: 102,786 1,083,012 43,043
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 90.4 72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.6 12.8 -7.0

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.0 41.3 4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.8 32.3 3.2
– Net Position: -18,961 17,343 1,618
– Gross Longs: 42,390 79,663 7,742
– Gross Shorts: 61,351 62,320 6,124
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.4 22.2 31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.1 2.7 -21.2

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -146,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 43.3 5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.7 33.5 2.0
– Net Position: -146,560 105,856 40,704
– Gross Longs: 240,482 468,705 62,435
– Gross Shorts: 387,042 362,849 21,731
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.6 64.3 82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.0 4.9 27.7

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.5 52.5 7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.4 69.5 5.4
– Net Position: 43,602 -48,914 5,312
– Gross Longs: 76,383 151,239 20,732
– Gross Shorts: 32,781 200,153 15,420
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.5 88.1 43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.1 27.7 -35.4

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9
– Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979
– Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210
– Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 48.9 18.5 1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 67.5 1.2 0.1
– Net Position: -10,780 9,985 795
– Gross Longs: 28,304 10,697 859
– Gross Shorts: 39,084 712 64
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 15.0 to 1 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.2 31.7 47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.7 -16.4 4.8

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.