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COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra Treasury Bonds (32,269 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (19,020 contracts) and the Fed Funds (17,490 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-98,451 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-52,992 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-39,312 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-39,484 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-28,806 contracts) and with the SOFR 3-Months (-86 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (83 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (68 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (83.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (79.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (28.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (36.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (44.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (57.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (67.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (52.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (7.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (57.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (57.6 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 3-Months (-37 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-29 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-24 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-4.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-28.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-23.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-5.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-12.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (19.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-16.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-38.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-24.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-27.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-37.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-41.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 153,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 17,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	57.2	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	63.1	2.7
– Net Position:	153,705	-130,471	-23,234
– Gross Longs:	469,542	1,263,935	37,401
– Gross Shorts:	315,837	1,394,406	60,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	18.3	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	4.6	-0.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -52,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -86 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	57.9	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	57.3	0.5
– Net Position:	-52,149	64,149	-12,000
– Gross Longs:	1,476,990	5,917,930	40,674
– Gross Shorts:	1,529,139	5,853,781	52,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	42.9	81.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.1	38.3	-11.5

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -278,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -28,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	69.4	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	48.6	0.1
– Net Position:	-278,023	278,649	-626
– Gross Longs:	132,190	930,913	413
– Gross Shorts:	410,213	652,264	1,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	23.1	27.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,479,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -98,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,380,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	80.0	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	50.9	2.4
– Net Position:	-1,479,361	1,318,151	161,210
– Gross Longs:	545,677	3,620,929	268,615
– Gross Shorts:	2,025,038	2,302,778	107,405
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.8	86.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	33.1	0.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,680,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,640,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	84.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	60.2	4.1
– Net Position:	-1,680,471	1,493,749	186,722
– Gross Longs:	458,688	5,255,655	441,574
– Gross Shorts:	2,139,159	3,761,906	254,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	100.0	88.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	8.5	-2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -901,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -848,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	77.9	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	60.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-901,183	790,410	110,773
– Gross Longs:	429,078	3,583,452	478,912
– Gross Shorts:	1,330,261	2,793,042	368,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	75.5	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-18.8	-8.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -103,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -39,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,722 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	73.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	65.1	13.4
– Net Position:	-103,034	183,187	-80,153
– Gross Longs:	353,210	1,614,142	214,437
– Gross Shorts:	456,244	1,430,955	294,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	54.8	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	20.9	-11.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	63.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	65.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-54,817	-33,079	87,896
– Gross Longs:	417,193	1,159,696	219,436
– Gross Shorts:	472,010	1,192,775	131,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	17.7	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-10.2	-16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -310,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 32,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -342,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	78.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	61.2	10.5
– Net Position:	-310,034	307,659	2,375
– Gross Longs:	160,892	1,396,250	188,474
– Gross Shorts:	470,926	1,088,591	186,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	47.5	9.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	39.5	-61.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

03 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (65,464 contracts) with Live Cattle (8,955 contracts) and Lean Hogs (11,584 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-41,343 contracts), Soybeans (-13,765 contracts), Sugar (-10,708 contracts), Wheat (-5,809 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,687 contracts), Cotton (-4,504 contracts), Cocoa (-3,578 contracts) and with Coffee (-1,003 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (94 percent) and Coffee (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Live Cattle (67 percent) and Wheat (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (22 percent) and Soybeans (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (31 percent) and the Soybean Meal (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (44.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (36.1 percent)
Sugar (30.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (34.4 percent)
Coffee (89.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (90.5 percent)
Soybeans (24.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (28.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (76.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (79.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (38.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.5 percent)
Live Cattle (67.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (94.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (82.8 percent)
Cotton (22.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.1 percent)
Cocoa (48.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (51.8 percent)
Wheat (53.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.8 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (62 percent) and Live Cattle (55 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (40 percent), Corn (19 percent) and Soybeans (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-6 percent) and Coffee (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (10.6 percent)
Coffee (-4.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (2.8 percent)
Soybeans (10.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (15.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-6.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.1 percent)
Live Cattle (55.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (42.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (62.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (55.1 percent)
Cotton (9.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.1 percent)
Cocoa (3.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.9 percent)
Wheat (-6.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	45.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	47.9	10.9
– Net Position:	83,304	-36,852	-46,452
– Gross Longs:	405,262	769,258	137,217
– Gross Shorts:	321,958	806,110	183,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	57.6	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-18.7	-11.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 82,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	49.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	63.2	5.8
– Net Position:	82,843	-117,480	34,637
– Gross Longs:	222,539	420,265	83,668
– Gross Shorts:	139,696	537,745	49,031
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	62.7	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-11.0	36.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	40.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.5	71.8	2.7
– Net Position:	65,301	-68,034	2,733
– Gross Longs:	77,119	86,446	8,468
– Gross Shorts:	11,818	154,480	5,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.5	10.5	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	5.3	-10.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -92,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	58.4	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	45.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-92,060	106,992	-14,932
– Gross Longs:	145,891	487,281	53,315
– Gross Shorts:	237,951	380,289	68,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	75.2	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-12.0	15.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	48.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	62.1	4.8
– Net Position:	64,345	-69,705	5,360
– Gross Longs:	153,757	259,002	30,638
– Gross Shorts:	89,412	328,707	25,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	28.5	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.1	-37.7	12.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -41,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	45.1	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	54.2	4.9
– Net Position:	27,125	-54,016	26,891
– Gross Longs:	138,571	266,467	55,890
– Gross Shorts:	111,446	320,483	28,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	56.3	76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	3.0	38.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 81,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	32.7	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	49.1	13.8
– Net Position:	81,729	-57,730	-23,999
– Gross Longs:	148,416	115,375	24,653
– Gross Shorts:	66,687	173,105	48,652
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	51.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	55.3	-48.2	-44.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 61,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	30.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	46.9	9.0
– Net Position:	61,078	-54,210	-6,868
– Gross Longs:	149,265	100,600	22,724
– Gross Shorts:	88,187	154,810	29,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.0	2.2	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	62.2	-67.3	-15.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,357 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	48.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	43.5	5.6
– Net Position:	-11,861	12,964	-1,103
– Gross Longs:	65,551	127,371	13,618
– Gross Shorts:	77,412	114,407	14,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	78.9	9.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-7.0	-15.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.8	38.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	72.7	3.4
– Net Position:	37,398	-44,582	7,184
– Gross Longs:	50,995	50,903	11,681
– Gross Shorts:	13,597	95,485	4,497
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	47.3	73.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-5.0	11.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -22,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	38.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	31.3	9.3
– Net Position:	-22,891	31,600	-8,709
– Gross Longs:	106,934	161,596	30,120
– Gross Shorts:	129,825	129,996	38,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	49.0	10.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	8.5	-13.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (39,717 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (2,462 contracts) also showing a rising week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-6,844 contracts), the VIX (-5,597 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-2,611 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-143 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (95 percent) and the Russell-Mini (90 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (76 percent) and S&P500-Mini (74 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (94.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (100.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (74.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (68.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (76.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (80.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (47.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (90.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (94.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (31.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.5 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (6 percent), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6 percent) and the VIX (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the DowJones-Mini (-8 percent) with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (17.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (27.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (6.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-21.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-35.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (6.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-5.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	40.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	40.8	7.8
– Net Position:	-1,572	-2,596	4,168
– Gross Longs:	95,529	129,726	29,505
– Gross Shorts:	97,101	132,322	25,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	5.8	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-11.8	37.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	68.1	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	76.3	7.3
– Net Position:	62,698	-177,608	114,910
– Gross Longs:	366,915	1,476,451	272,342
– Gross Shorts:	304,217	1,654,059	157,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	15.4	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.7	-29.7	13.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,236 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	53.3	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	67.7	14.6
– Net Position:	9,625	-12,902	3,277
– Gross Longs:	23,118	47,980	16,452
– Gross Shorts:	13,493	60,882	13,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	19.5	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	4.5	11.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	59.4	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	65.7	11.1
– Net Position:	5,122	-16,238	11,116
– Gross Longs:	57,891	152,916	39,683
– Gross Shorts:	52,769	169,154	28,567
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	34.7	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	18.3	-4.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 11,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	71.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	77.8	4.0
– Net Position:	11,943	-27,139	15,196
– Gross Longs:	78,765	313,576	32,828
– Gross Shorts:	66,822	340,715	17,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.2	7.3	80.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-7.0	8.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	89.6	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	82.1	2.0
– Net Position:	-34,871	31,843	3,028
– Gross Longs:	31,027	379,781	11,564
– Gross Shorts:	65,898	347,938	8,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	69.2	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-2.4	-17.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

01 Nov

Investors’ main focus today is on the NonFarm Payrolls report. Iran is preparing for a new attack on Israel

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 0.90%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 1.86%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 2.44%. Disappointing earnings forecasts from major tech giants Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) raised concerns about their high artificial intelligence costs and potential pressure on profits. Meta (-4.1%) and Microsoft (-6%) reported significant increases in artificial intelligence spending, dampening investor optimism and weighing on shares of other major tech companies, including Nvidia (-4.7%) and Amazon (-3.4%).

Today, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released. Economists believe the labor market will add only 111,000 jobs in October, down significantly from 254,000 in September. Strikes by major companies (including Boeing) and weather-related disasters are cited as the reason for the drop. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise slightly from 3.9% to 4.0% year-over-year. The weak report should support stock indices and gold after a sell-off in previous sessions.

Equity markets in Europe were steadily declining on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.83%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.05%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.36%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.61% yesterday. After Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose to 2% from 1.7% and exceeded the forecast of 1.9%, investors are betting that the ECB will maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts, supported by solid economic growth. This is putting pressure on European indices. Weak corporate reports are also contributing to the negativity. TotalEnergies shares fell by 3.2% to their lowest level since February after reporting lower net income and sales in the third quarter. BNP Paribas shares fell by 4.8% as its results failed to impress investors, although the lender reaffirmed its 2024 growth trajectory. In contrast, Airbus rose by 0.3% after its earnings and revenue beat forecasts. Société Générale shares rose by 11.7% to their highest level since June after beating third-quarter earnings expectations.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $71 per barrel on Friday, rising for the third consecutive session as market attention shifted back to the Middle East conflict. The change was prompted by a report that Iran may be preparing to launch an attack on Israel from Iraq in the coming days, with sources indicating that the alleged attack could involve drones and ballistic missiles. Investors remained on edge, especially after Israel’s military chief warned that any further missile attacks would be followed by a “very hard” strike on Iran.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell to below $3.75/mmbtu, down sharply from a four-month high of $3.1, amid falling risk premiums and evidence of ample domestic supply. Adding to this was data from Wood Mackenzie showing that US production rose to 103 bcf/d at the end of October, close to a record high. That matched a significant rise in inventories in the fourth week of the month when EIA data indicated a 78 billion cubic feet increase.

Asian markets were mostly down on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.50%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.31% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.04% for yesterday.

Hong Kong stocks rose by 1% on the first trading day of November, reversing losses from the previous two sessions amid gains across sectors. Traders welcomed private survey data showing that China’s manufacturing sector returned to growth in October after a series of stimulus measures taken by Beijing in late September, which coincided with official data.

In Australia, mixed economic data clouded the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook. Producer prices rose more than expected in the third quarter, while retail sales slowed significantly in September. In addition, earlier data showed that the annual average consumer price index, the RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, fell only slightly to 3/5% in the third quarter, remaining above the target range of 2%-3%. Markets largely expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged at 4.35% during its upcoming meeting next week.

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate fell to 1.71% in October 2024, the lowest since October 2021, while remaining within the central bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. Core inflation hit a 15-month high of 2.21% from September’s 2.09%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,705.45 −108.22 (−1.86%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,763.46 −378.08 (−0.90%)

DAX (DE40) 19,077.54 −179.80 (−0.93%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,110.10 −49.53 (−0.61%)

USD index 104.00 +0.02 (+0.02%)

News feed for: 2024.11.01

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Australia Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

01 Nov

AUDUSD holds near August lows: US dollar pressure remains strong

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair fell to 0.6566 on Friday, marking its lowest since early August. The US dollar continued to strengthen last night, bolstered by signs of resilience in the US economy. Additionally, investors hold significant expectations for Donald Trump’s success in the upcoming presidential election next week.

Meanwhile, an unexpected improvement in Chinese manufacturing activity provided noticeable support for the Aussie. Given that China is Australia’s key trade and economic partner, the Australian dollar is highly responsive to developments in China.

Annual inflation in Australia eased to 3.5% in Q3 but remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target range of 2.0-3.0%. Producer prices rose more than expected in the third quarter, while retail sales declined in September. These mixed signals are keeping the Aussie under pressure.

Baseline expectations suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% at its meeting next week.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD market completed a wave of decline to 0.6536. Today, the market is forming a consolidation range above this level. An upward breakout would signal the development of a growth wave towards 0.6656, viewed as a correction to the previous downtrend. Once this correction is completed, we may see a new decline towards 0.6492. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero near the lows and preparing to turn upwards.

On the H1 chart, the AUD/USD market has formed a consolidation range around 0.6561, with a potential extension towards 0.6530. After this, we may see the beginning of an upward wave targeting 0.6655 as the first objective. This growth structure is expected to be part of a broader correction. Technically, this scenario is also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 20 mark and preparing to rise towards 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Oct

Stock indices under pressure ahead of US elections. Oil strengthened due to lower inventories

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 0.22% on Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.33%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.79%. Stocks gave up early gains and suffered moderate losses as declines in chip company stocks impacted the broader market. AMD closed down more than 10%, leading to a decline in chip company stocks after fourth-quarter revenue guidance came in below consensus.

Better-than-expected US economic news on Wednesday boosted the outlook for a soft landing and lent support to the US dollar after Q3 personal consumption rose more than expected and the October ADP employment report showed employers added the most jobs in 15 months.

Shares of Garmin Ltd (GRMN) rose more than 23% and topped the S&P 500 leaderboard after the company reported third-quarter revenue of $1.59 billion, above the consensus estimate of $1.43 billion. Snap Inc (SNAP) closed higher by more than 15% after reporting 443 million daily active users in the third quarter, above the consensus projection of 441.16 million.

Equity markets in Europe were steadily declining on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.10%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.68%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.73%. European equity markets were set for declines on Thursday, marking the third consecutive session of declines as investors awaited preliminary inflation data from the region that could influence the European Central Bank’s approach to cutting interest rates. The overall inflation rate is expected to rise to 1.9% y/y from 1.7%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is expected to fall to 2.6% y/y from 2.7%.

Eurozone inflation will reach the European Central Bank’s 2% target during 2025, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with a French newspaper, largely echoing her recent statement.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $69 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains of more than 2% from the previous session, helped by an unexpected decline in US inventories. EIA data showed that US crude inventories fell by 0.5 million barrels last week, contradicting market expectations of a 2.3 million barrel increase. However, bearish pressure remains due to weak demand from China (the largest importer), while investors are assessing the supply outlook following reports that OPEC+ may postpone its planned December oil production increase by a month or more.

Asian markets were mostly down on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.96%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.55% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.83%.

Hong Kong stocks were up 0.7% from Thursday’s market open, partially recovering from the previous day’s decline amid gains across all sectors. Traders reacted to official PMI data for October, which showed factory activity in China rose for the first time in six months following a series of new stimulus measures designed to reverse slowing economic growth. Meanwhile, growth in the services sector was solid.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at around 0.25% at its October meeting. The BoJ remains bullish on further rate hikes if economic and price data matches its estimates. In its quarterly prognoses, the BoJ maintained its projection that core inflation will reach 2.5% in fiscal 2024, while inflation is expected to reach 1.9% in fiscal 2025 and 2026. As for GDP, the Central Bank maintained its growth estimate for 2024 at 0.6%. It also expects growth of 1.1% in FY 2025 and 1.0% in FY 2026.

Retail sales in Australia rose by 0.1% in September, well below the 0.7% increase recorded in August and below projections for a 0.3% increase as the positive effect of warmer weather in August wore off. In addition, a mixed quarterly domestic inflation report released earlier this week lowered expectations for an immediate rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Markets largely expect the RBA to keep rates at 4.35% at its upcoming meeting next week, with the first-rate cut not expected until May next year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,813.67 −19.25 (−0.33%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,141.54 −91.51 (−0.22%)

DAX (DE40) 19,257.34 −220.73 (−1.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,159.63 −59.98 (−0.73%)

USD Index 104.11 +0.11 (+0.11%)

News feed for: 2024.10.31

Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Oct

Australia has seen a sharp decline in inflationary pressures. Silver rose to $34 an ounce

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.36%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.98%.

The latest data from the JOLTs report showed that job openings are at their lowest level since January 2021, along with increased layoffs. In contrast, the Central Bank’s Consumer Confidence Index rose sharply, posting its highest increase since March 2021. Despite the mixed signals, the dollar remained near its highest levels in three months, helped by expectations that the Fed will take a more cautious approach to its easing strategy. In addition, speculation surrounding Donald Trump’s possible victory in the November 5 election lent further support to the currency as his policies on tariffs, taxes and immigration are perceived to be inflationary.

In after-hours trading, shares of Alphabet (GOOG) were up nearly 6% following impressive quarterly revenue growth in its cloud division. Snap (SNAP) and Reddit were also up significantly, climbing 10.6% and 24.8%, respectively, thanks to strong quarterly results. AMD (AMD), however, suffered a downturn, falling 7.6% after posting weak fourth-quarter earnings guidance.

Equity markets in Europe were steadily declining on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.61%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.91%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.80%. European stock markets were set for declines on Wednesday as investors prepared for the latest GDP and inflation data from the region, as well as the UK government’s budget announcement. It is also a busy day for corporate earnings as reports from such large companies are scheduled. Notable earnings news included Swiss lender UBS reporting a third-quarter profit of $1.43 billion, well above estimates of $667.5 million, thanks to the successful integration of clients from Credit Suisse. UK-based Standard Chartered also reported earnings that exceeded projections and raised its revenue outlook for 2024.

WTI crude prices rose to around $67.5 a barrel on Wednesday after two consecutive declines, helped by an unexpected drop in US inventories. API data showed that US crude inventories fell by 0.6 million barrels last week, contradicting expectations of a 2.3 million barrel increase. Nevertheless, the downward trend persists as investor attention has shifted to weak fundamentals, including weak Chinese demand and ample supply, while traders await December OPEC+ production plans.

Silver (XAG/USD) rose to $34 an ounce on Tuesday, following gains in gold prices as uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election and tensions in the Middle East continue to drive demand for precious metals.

Asian markets were mostly rising on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.78%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.49% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.34%.

The offshore yuan fell to around 7.15 per dollar as traders are cautious ahead of the expected China PMI data to be released tomorrow. The data is expected to shed light on the impact of the latest stimulus measures. In addition, traders await the National People’s Congress meeting scheduled for November 4–8 for more details on the anticipated fiscal support measures.

In Australia, annual inflation fell to 2.8% in the third quarter, down from 3.8% in the previous quarter and slightly below the expected 2.9%. This marked the first time inflation has returned to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2–3% since the end of 2021. Core inflation, which is closely monitored by the Reserve Bank, also fell to 3.5% from 4%, which was in line with expectations. The latest inflation data suggests that price pressures in the country are easing, giving the Central Bank an opportunity to consider a rate cut at one of its last meetings of the year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,832.92 +9.40 (+0.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,233.05 −154.52 (−0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 19,478.07 −53.55 (−0.27%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,219.61 −66.01 (−0.80%)

USD Index 104.28 −0.03 (−0.03%)

News feed for: 2024.10.30

Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 14:15 (GMT+2);
US GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Oct

AUD/USD Continues Downward Spiral Amid Economic Concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar remains under significant pressure, with AUD/USD extending its downtrend mid-week to reach 0.6539, the lowest since August. The decline, which began on 1 October, has been relentless, with the pair experiencing little to no respite from its downward trajectory.

Recent data indicating that Australia’s annual inflation cooled to 2.8% in Q3 from 3.8% in Q2, falling just below the expected 2.9%, has contributed to the accelerated sell-off. Although this brings inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3%, the core inflation gauge closely monitored by the RBA remains elevated at 3.5% year-on-year in Q3. Given the persistent core inflation, the RBA has no immediate impetus to lower interest rates.

The central bank maintains that inflation needs to stabilise before considering monetary easing. With the RBA’s next meeting scheduled for next week, market consensus does not anticipate a change in the current interest rate of 4.35% per annum. Rate cuts are not expected until at least May 2025.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD is persisting in its downward wave, targeting 0.6533. If this level is reached, a corrective phase towards 0.6613 may follow, and the downward trend is expected to resume towards 0.6491. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, as its signal line is well below zero, indicating a continuation of the downward momentum.

On the hourly chart, AUD/USD has established a consolidation range around 0.6570, breaking downwards to continue towards 0.6533. Once this level is achieved, a corrective move to 0.6613 may begin, with an intermediate target at 0.6570. This potential upward correction is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 20 but poised to rise towards 80, suggesting a brief respite from the selling pressure.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Oct

GBPUSD could be in for mid-week “sneaky surprise”

By ForexTime

GBPUSD’s forecasted volatility jumps 24% over past week

UK government set to issue most debt since 2020

US Treasury refunding announcement in focus

Friday’s US NFP triggered GBPUSD moves of ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 0.6% over past year

Bloomberg FX model: GBPUSD has 73% of trading within1.2836 – 1.3126 this week

Here’s something GBPUSD traders may not be aware of this week.

The UK and US governments are due to make twin announcements on Wednesday, October 30th that could translate into big moves for this FX pair.

Leading up to these announcements, the forecasted volatility for GBPUSD a.k.a “cable” has already risen by 24%, even though the period also covers the upcoming US presidential elections (but that’s a story for a not-too-distant article).

gbpusd w1

1) UK Autumn Budget 2024

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the new Labour government’s first annual budget on Wednesday at 12:30pm UK time.

Reeves is expected to announce a package of tax hikes and increased borrowing plans that will push UK debt sales to £293 billion – the highest since the response to Covid-19.

Investors will also keep an eye on any major updates on the country’s finances and the government’s plan for public spending.

This event will likely influence sentiment towards, not just the UK economy in the medium to longer term, but also GBPUSD in the immediate aftermath

The bigger picture…

Well, much attention will be on the debt sales worth the forecasted £293 billion.

This figure sets the market’s expectations for this pivotal announcement.

What does this mean?

Large debt sales may fuel concerns about inflation if they are seen as a sign of increased government spending.

High inflation expectations could even prevent the Bank of England from cutting rates as the expected pace.

Slower-than-expected BOE rate cuts could then lead to Sterling strength.

At the time of writing, traders have priced in a 25-basis point BoE cut in November with the probability of another 25 basis point cut by December at 60%.

How might this impact the GBPUSD?

The GBPUSD could jump if total debt sales surpass the £293 billion estimate as investors push back bets around faster BoE rate cuts.

Should total UK government debt sales announced below the $293 billion figure, this may weaken the GBPUSD as BoE rate cut expectations remain intact.

2) US Treasury quarterly refunding

On the other side of the Atlantic, the dollar could be rocked by heavy hitting reports on Wednesday including the Q3 GDP and ADP employment data.

The US economy is expected to remain resilient, with a forecasted 3% growth in Q3 along with 110,000 jobs added in October, according to the Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP).

But there’s another event you may not spot on most economic calendars that could serve a “sneaky surprise” for broader markets as well.

The US Treasury quarterly refunding, which is perhaps the focus of most bond traders, could have a major impact on the USD-side of GBPUSD on Wednesday.

The bigger picture…

This is where the US government announces how much new debt needs to be sold to markets to keep financing its budget for the quarter.

This event has sparked some action in the bond markets in the past, influencing the US dollar as result.

According to Bloomberg, bond dealers widely expect that the refunding auctions will total $125 billion for the third straight quarter.

How might this impact the GBPUSD?

As an oversimplification:

Falling Bond Prices –> Rising Yields –> Stronger Dollar (and vice versa)

With the above logic in mind …

A higher-than-$125 billion figure suggests that the US Treasury plans to sell more bonds to markets.
If this weakens Treasury prices, yields could push higher, boosting the USD. A stronger USD is seen dragging the GBPUSD lower.

A lower-than- $125 billion figure may boost bond prices, pulling yields lower and weakening the USD. Dollar weakness could see the GBPUSD jump.

But wait, there’s more!

3) US October nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report

Friday’s US jobs report, due at 12:30PM GMT on November 1st, will then come at the tail end of a busy and potentially volatile trading week for the GBPUSD.

This will be the final jobs report before the US election and something that could shape expectations around what action the Fed takes for the rest of 2024.

The US economy is expected to have created 110,000 jobs in October, a major drop from the 254,000 jobs seen in the previous month.

The also crucial unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Ultimately, a disappointing report may fuel speculation around Fed rate cuts, despite potential distortions in the NFP data from the effects of recent Hurricanes and industrial strikes.

Traders are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut by November with the odds of another 25 basis point rate cut by December at 70%.

Over the past year, the US NFP report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.5% or declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release for GBPUSD.

4) Technical forces

This currency pair nicknamed “cable” has shed almost 3% month-to-date, pressured by a dovish Bank of England (BoE) and recent dollar rebound.

Although prices are bearish on the daily charts, the upcoming events could determine whether GBPUSD enters the new month above or below the psychological 1.30 level.

A solid daily close below the 100-day SMA may open the doors toward the 200-day SMA at 1.2800.

Should the 100-day SMA prove to be reliable support, this may send prices toward 1.3070 and the 50-day SMA at 1.3140.

GBPUSD--

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2836 – 1.3126 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Oct

Bitcoin has reached the $70,000 mark. The Canadian dollar fell to last year’s lows

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) rose 0.65% on Monday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.27%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed at its opening price. Stocks rose amid lower geopolitical risks in the Middle East after Israel launched only a limited retaliatory strike on some Iranian military installations over the weekend and did not bomb oil infrastructure. Corporate earnings season for the third quarter remains in full swing. Those giants will be reporting this week. Of the companies in the S&P 500 that have already posted earnings, 76% beat estimates. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies, on average, are expected to report quarterly earnings growth of 4.3% y/y in Q3, below the consensus of 7.9% y/y growth seen in July.

Boeing (BA) is down 2.71% after it began selling $19 billion worth of shares to reduce debt and try to stave off a downgrade to undesirable. Coinbase (COIN) is up 5.48% thanks to support from Bitcoin’s 4.1% rally on Monday.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) broke the key $70,000 mark this week for the first time since June, driven by strong inflows into US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds. According to industry data, US Bitcoin funds have recorded inflows of more than $3 billion in the past two weeks, bringing year-to-date inflows to more than $25 billion. Betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election on November 5 has also contributed to the rise of crypto assets, as he has consistently voiced support for the crypto industry during his campaign.

In October, the Canadian dollar fell to 1.39 per US dollar, the weakest since October 2022, amid pressure from lower oil prices and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish stance. At its last meeting, the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 50 bps and signaled that more rate cuts are likely to follow, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve’s less accommodative outlook. This was driven by slowing inflation and a softening labor market, with inflation falling to 1.6% in September, below the 2% target for the first time in three years, and unemployment hitting a two-year high of 6.6%

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) slipped below 20 per dollar in October, hitting a seven-week low, as mid-month inflation data coincided with signals from recent Bank of Mexico meeting minutes hinting at a potentially looser monetary stance. Core inflation fell to 3.87% from 3.95% in the first two weeks of October, fueling speculation of a 0.25% interest rate cut in November, which could put pressure on the peso by curbing capital inflows.

Equity markets in Europe were steadily rising on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.79% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.77%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.45%.

As for oil, after the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the market’s attention shifted back to weak fundamentals, particularly sluggish demand growth in China and the expected increase in OPEC production. These factors have a negative impact on oil quotations.

Asian markets were predominantly rising on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.82%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.05%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.12%.

The offshore yuan fell to 7.15 per dollar, hitting a more than two-month low. It remains under pressure from a strengthening US dollar, supported by signs of resilience in the US economy and growing expectations of a possible victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. In addition, traders remained cautious as they awaited further details on anticipated fiscal stimulus measures from China’s top leaders at their upcoming meeting from November 4 to 8.

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar held near the three-month low reached in the previous session. Domestically, the kiwi remains under pressure as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to continue aggressively cutting interest rates now that inflation has returned to the target range. Investors are currently estimating a 0.5% rate cut at the Central Bank’s last meeting of the year in November, with some expecting a 75 basis point cut.

In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its parliamentary majority in elections over the weekend, raising policy uncertainty and further complicating the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) plans for a rate hike. Meanwhile, data showed Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August, the lowest in eight months. Investors now await the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Thursday, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,823.52 +15.40 (0.27%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,387.57 +273.17 (0.65%)

DAX (DE40) 19,531.62 +68.03 (0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,285.62 +36.78 (0.45%)

USD Index 104.30 +0.04 (+0.04%)

News feed for: 2024.10.29

German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

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