By RoboForex Analytical Department
The Australian dollar remains under significant pressure, with AUD/USD extending its downtrend mid-week to reach 0.6539, the lowest since August. The decline, which began on 1 October, has been relentless, with the pair experiencing little to no respite from its downward trajectory.
Recent data indicating that Australia’s annual inflation cooled to 2.8% in Q3 from 3.8% in Q2, falling just below the expected 2.9%, has contributed to the accelerated sell-off. Although this brings inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3%, the core inflation gauge closely monitored by the RBA remains elevated at 3.5% year-on-year in Q3. Given the persistent core inflation, the RBA has no immediate impetus to lower interest rates.
The central bank maintains that inflation needs to stabilise before considering monetary easing. With the RBA’s next meeting scheduled for next week, market consensus does not anticipate a change in the current interest rate of 4.35% per annum. Rate cuts are not expected until at least May 2025.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD
Free Reports:
Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.
Sign Up for Our Stock Market Newsletter – Get updated on News, Charts & Rankings of Public Companies when you join our Stocks Newsletter
The AUD/USD is persisting in its downward wave, targeting 0.6533. If this level is reached, a corrective phase towards 0.6613 may follow, and the downward trend is expected to resume towards 0.6491. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, as its signal line is well below zero, indicating a continuation of the downward momentum.
On the hourly chart, AUD/USD has established a consolidation range around 0.6570, breaking downwards to continue towards 0.6533. Once this level is achieved, a corrective move to 0.6613 may begin, with an intermediate target at 0.6570. This potential upward correction is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 20 but poised to rise towards 80, suggesting a brief respite from the selling pressure.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
- The Central Bank of Mexico kept its interest rate unchanged. Iran plans to introduce strict bans for US and Israeli vessels in the Strait of Hormuz Aug 7, 2026
- USD/JPY Holds Firm: Yen Loses Some Support Aug 7, 2026
- Australian trade balance returned to positive territory Aug 6, 2026
- Results in Line for Most Reporting Companies Aug 5, 2026
- Stock indices continue to break records. Oil is falling amid intensified diplomatic dialogue between the US and Iran Aug 5, 2026
- USD/JPY Holds Steady After Intervention: Outlook Remains Uncertain Aug 5, 2026
- EUR/USD: Busy Week Ahead Aug 3, 2026
- Positive sentiment in the AI sector supported stock indices. Oil prices remain volatile Aug 3, 2026
- The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ Index jumped by more than 3.3%. The offshore yuan is trading at its highest level since 2023 Jul 31, 2026
- USD/JPY After Volatility: Multiple Events in One Day Jul 31, 2026
