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Speculators boost Brazilian Real and Japanese Yen Bets to New Record Highs

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 29th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (18,451 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (18,347 contracts), the EuroFX (10,769 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (5,372 contracts), the Australian Dollar (4,639 contracts), the British Pound (3,469 contracts), the Japanese Yen (1,398 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,160 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (525 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets were Bitcoin (-425 contracts) and with the Canadian Dollar (-38 contracts) also seeing a tiny decline on the week.

Speculators boost Brazilian Real and Japanese Yen Bets to New Record Highs

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is new record high speculator levels for the both the Brazilian real and Japanese yen.

First up, the Brazilian real rose by over +18,000 contracts this week and have now risen for four straight weeks (by a total of over 31,000 contracts) to land at a total of 68,338 contracts. This is now the highest on record and surpasses the previous high of +50,496 contracts that was established on March 8th of 2022.

This has been sharp and swift turnaround for the BRL as net positions were negative as recent as January 28th. The overall net position had been in bearish territory from May 7th of 2024 continuously through January 28th of 2025 before turning bullish. February 4th saw a huge jump by over +38,000 contracts in just that week and set in motion the current bullish sentiment trend.

The Brazilian real exchange rate has been on the move higher since hitting a record low in December of 2024. Since that record low position, the currency has improved by over 10% versus the US dollar. The Brazilian real exchange rate has now risen in 13 out of the last 18 weeks but despite the all-time record high in speculative bets, the currency still resides at a relatively low level compared to the last 3 years, 5 years and 10 years time-frames.

The Japanese yen speculator bets also continued higher with new all-time high record levels. The yen speculator positions have made new all-time record highs for the fourth consecutive week and landed this week at +179,212 net contracts. The yen positions have risen higher in 13 out of the last 15 weeks for a cumulative gain of +208,623 net contracts over that 15 week period.

The yen exchange rate, however, has dipped in the last couple weeks following 3 consecutive weeks of gains versus the US dollar. The yen exchange rate, like the Brazilian real, remains historically low despite the all-time record high in speculator bets.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (59 percent), EuroFX (58 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Bitcoin (24 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (40 percent) and the Australian Dollar (41 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.7 percent)
EuroFX (57.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (53.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (51.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (37.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (59.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (100.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (85.0 percent)
Bitcoin (24.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.7 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (22 percent), the Swiss Franc (20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-67 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-16 percent) and the British Pound (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-15.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-36.9 percent)
EuroFX (6.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (19.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (20.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (23.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (31.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (33.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (30.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (5.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (22.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (6.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-67.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-50.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.2	28.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.5	23.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-449	1,548	-1,099
– Gross Longs:	19,093	9,388	2,515
– Gross Shorts:	19,542	7,840	3,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	97.1	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	16.3	-8.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 75,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	55.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	73.0	5.7
– Net Position:	75,797	-131,511	55,714
– Gross Longs:	196,388	401,746	97,376
– Gross Shorts:	120,591	533,257	41,662
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	36.4	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-13.3	50.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	28.7	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	44.2	13.4
– Net Position:	23,959	-29,723	5,764
– Gross Longs:	91,064	55,263	31,474
– Gross Shorts:	67,105	84,986	25,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	49.6	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	3.6	-7.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 179,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	28.6	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	83.8	5.9
– Net Position:	179,212	-201,897	22,685
– Gross Longs:	202,797	104,910	44,388
– Gross Shorts:	23,585	306,807	21,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.4	20.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	74.5	17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	39.4	18.8
– Net Position:	-24,314	25,264	-950
– Gross Longs:	5,567	53,620	12,562
– Gross Shorts:	29,881	28,356	13,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	40.7	74.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.4	-28.9	32.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -67,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	83.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	53.3	12.4
– Net Position:	-67,205	75,322	-8,117
– Gross Longs:	16,046	208,156	22,693
– Gross Shorts:	83,251	132,834	30,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	45.5	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.1	-30.5	7.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	66.6	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	40.2	11.8
– Net Position:	-49,943	48,803	1,140
– Gross Longs:	26,602	123,079	22,967
– Gross Shorts:	76,545	74,276	21,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	59.0	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-13.2	4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	73.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	39.3	6.3
– Net Position:	-21,523	21,302	221
– Gross Longs:	12,170	46,070	4,201
– Gross Shorts:	33,693	24,768	3,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	58.1	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-23.1	21.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.5	30.2	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	77.8	2.8
– Net Position:	59,512	-61,470	1,958
– Gross Longs:	83,287	39,019	5,554
– Gross Shorts:	23,775	100,489	3,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.1	42.6	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-2.6	8.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,887 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	32.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	88.5	1.1
– Net Position:	68,338	-70,574	2,236
– Gross Longs:	81,037	39,953	3,636
– Gross Shorts:	12,699	110,527	1,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.4	-22.0	-0.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.9	5.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.5	1.7	3.7
– Net Position:	-1,231	915	316
– Gross Longs:	22,355	1,360	1,307
– Gross Shorts:	23,586	445	991
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	86.3	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-67.0	66.4	24.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

03 May

Speculator Extremes: JPY, BRL, Wheat & 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 29th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing once again this week as the JPY speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 15 this week. The overall net speculator position reached a new all-time record high at a total of 179,212 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,398 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings this week as the BRL speculator level is also at 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 22 this week. The speculator position registered 68,338 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 18,451 contracts in speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The VIX speculator level resides at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -2 this week. The overall speculator position was 4,240 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,985 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 35 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with an increase by 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level sits at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12 this week.

The speculator position was 30,863 net contracts this week with a decline by -6,817 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at the bottom or 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -28 this week. The overall speculator position was -116,808 net contracts this week with a decrease of -22,839 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18 this week. The speculator position was -2,292,544 net contracts this week with a drop by -101,110 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The USD Index speculator level resides at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16 this week. The overall speculator position was -449 net contracts this week with a rise of 525 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6 this week. The speculator position was -20,034 net contracts this week with a decline by -7,483 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Finally, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5 this week. The speculator position was 177,209 net contracts this week with an advance by 6,254 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 May

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Weekly Changes led by Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (5,217 contracts) with Platinum (4,285 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-12,060 contracts), Copper (-5,396 contracts), Steel (-460 contracts) and with Palladium (-75 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

\Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (80 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (22 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (46.8 percent)
Silver (79.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (72.7 percent)
Copper (51.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.3 percent)
Platinum (39.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (29.4 percent)
Palladium (22.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (23.1 percent)
Steel (79.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.6 percent)

Copper & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all of the metals markets have negative trends currently. Copper (-5 percent) and Silver (-16 percent) have the lowest negative scores at the moment while Gold (-36 percent) and Platinum (-25 percent) have the most negative trends this week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-35.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (-23.1 percent)
Silver (-15.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-18.7 percent)
Copper (-5.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.7 percent)
Platinum (-24.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.8 percent)
Palladium (-18.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-17.5 percent)
Steel (-17.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-15.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 163,318 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.2	20.5	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	62.8	5.1
– Net Position:	163,318	-190,761	27,443
– Gross Longs:	240,377	92,787	50,675
– Gross Shorts:	77,059	283,548	23,232
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	53.7	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.9	34.0	0.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 49,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,217 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	27.0	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	72.4	6.0
– Net Position:	49,943	-69,264	19,321
– Gross Longs:	70,299	41,240	28,535
– Gross Shorts:	20,356	110,504	9,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	17.8	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	13.7	-0.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	33.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	43.5	6.8
– Net Position:	19,369	-20,064	695
– Gross Longs:	71,612	63,420	13,700
– Gross Shorts:	52,243	83,484	13,005
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	53.2	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	6.5	-10.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.6	24.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	43.4	5.2
– Net Position:	9,962	-14,822	4,860
– Gross Longs:	45,794	18,493	8,844
– Gross Shorts:	35,832	33,315	3,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	59.7	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	20.2	24.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -75 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	52.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.5	4.2	6.9
– Net Position:	-10,918	10,001	917
– Gross Longs:	6,233	10,873	2,351
– Gross Shorts:	17,151	872	1,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	12.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	73.6	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.2	20.1	-9.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	64.5	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	66.1	0.6
– Net Position:	658	-610	-48
– Gross Longs:	11,276	25,030	186
– Gross Shorts:	10,618	25,640	234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	22.0	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	18.6	-26.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

03 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led this week by 2-Year Bonds & SOFR-1M

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-M

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (91,618 contracts) with the SOFR 1-Month (61,386 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (34,569 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (22,131 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-141,796 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-101,110 contracts), the Fed Funds (-95,303 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-53,801 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-3,792 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (78 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (64 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (54 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (21 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (26 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (34.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (25.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (22.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (40.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (53.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (45.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (78.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (79.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (63.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (48.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (31.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (38.4 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (11 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-49.6 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-25 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-18 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-5.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-17.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-14.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-49.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-42.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (2.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-10.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (5.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (16.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -95,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,417 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	68.0	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	64.3	1.5
– Net Position:	-107,720	92,574	15,146
– Gross Longs:	428,336	1,729,750	54,431
– Gross Shorts:	536,056	1,637,176	39,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	58.9	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-8.1	-17.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -565,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -141,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -423,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	60.1	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	54.8	0.3
– Net Position:	-565,606	565,988	-382
– Gross Longs:	1,254,667	6,381,339	34,681
– Gross Shorts:	1,820,273	5,815,351	35,063
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	68.9	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-5.0	-3.0

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -19,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 61,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	66.6	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	65.2	0.2
– Net Position:	-19,404	21,480	-2,076
– Gross Longs:	231,199	1,064,063	846
– Gross Shorts:	250,603	1,042,583	2,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	36.8	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-5.8	41.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,206,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 91,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,297,995 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	77.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	51.7	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,206,377	1,073,007	133,370
– Gross Longs:	588,984	3,188,309	239,843
– Gross Shorts:	1,795,361	2,115,302	106,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	78.7	77.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-0.9	-1.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,292,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -101,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,191,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	82.8	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	52.5	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,292,544	2,079,747	212,797
– Gross Longs:	605,281	5,682,152	460,646
– Gross Shorts:	2,897,825	3,602,405	247,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	20.2	5.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -871,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 34,569 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -906,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	78.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	63.6	6.5
– Net Position:	-871,537	715,931	155,606
– Gross Longs:	496,546	3,818,873	472,429
– Gross Shorts:	1,368,083	3,102,942	316,823
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.7	66.4	98.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-9.8	20.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -221,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -53,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	76.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	65.7	10.7
– Net Position:	-221,689	237,815	-16,126
– Gross Longs:	295,654	1,738,406	229,056
– Gross Shorts:	517,343	1,500,591	245,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	56.0	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.6	47.6	9.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -85,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 22,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	75.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	75.9	7.3
– Net Position:	-85,556	-7,853	93,409
– Gross Longs:	188,518	1,362,011	225,910
– Gross Shorts:	274,074	1,369,864	132,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	36.7	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	23.7	-6.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -251,394 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	82.9	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	71.3	7.5
– Net Position:	-251,394	217,821	33,573
– Gross Longs:	126,053	1,557,821	173,657
– Gross Shorts:	377,447	1,340,000	140,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	23.0	55.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	0.6	3.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

03 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Cotton, Soybean Oil & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton, Soybean Oil & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (13,340 contracts) with Soybean Oil (9,774 contracts), Coffee (8,233 contracts), Sugar (5,530 contracts), Live Cattle (4,024 contracts), Soybeans (3,789 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,561 contracts) and Cocoa (1,775 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-44,414 contracts), Soybean Meal (-22,758 contracts) and with Wheat (-22,839 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (81 percent) and Live Cattle (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (74 percent), Soybeans (66 percent) and Corn (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent) and Soybean Meal (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (23 percent) and the Cocoa (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (59.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.7 percent)
Sugar (23.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (21.2 percent)
Coffee (73.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybeans (65.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (64.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (80.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (75.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.7 percent)
Live Cattle (80.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (76.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (54.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (52.0 percent)
Cotton (30.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.5 percent)
Cocoa (27.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (25.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (44 percent) and Cotton (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (17 percent), Sugar (2 percent) and Cocoa (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-9 percent), Corn (-9 percent) and Coffee (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-8.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.6 percent)
Sugar (2.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.8 percent)
Coffee (-6.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-14.9 percent)
Soybeans (17.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (44.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (34.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-8.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.3 percent)
Cotton (22.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.2 percent)
Cocoa (0.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.8 percent)
Wheat (-27.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 175,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -44,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 219,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	44.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	52.7	10.8
– Net Position:	175,429	-128,654	-46,775
– Gross Longs:	412,036	685,641	119,389
– Gross Shorts:	236,607	814,295	166,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	41.9	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	7.5	12.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	54.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	58.9	7.4
– Net Position:	38,765	-34,712	-4,053
– Gross Longs:	196,828	444,878	56,409
– Gross Shorts:	158,063	479,590	60,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	81.2	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	5.3	-36.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	37.0	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	70.6	4.0
– Net Position:	49,289	-52,194	2,905
– Gross Longs:	59,405	57,566	9,134
– Gross Shorts:	10,116	109,760	6,229
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	27.2	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	6.5	0.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	50.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	55.5	8.2
– Net Position:	59,473	-38,976	-20,497
– Gross Longs:	184,167	378,825	41,309
– Gross Shorts:	124,694	417,801	61,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	33.5	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-21.2	27.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 70,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	46.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	60.7	4.7
– Net Position:	70,165	-80,644	10,479
– Gross Longs:	151,088	251,914	35,994
– Gross Shorts:	80,923	332,558	25,515
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	20.5	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.2	-45.6	37.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -53,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	51.0	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	44.5	5.1
– Net Position:	-53,734	35,546	18,188
– Gross Longs:	112,251	279,114	46,066
– Gross Shorts:	165,985	243,568	27,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	91.8	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	8.7	-2.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,024 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	28.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	51.5	13.7
– Net Position:	103,030	-82,863	-20,167
– Gross Longs:	174,783	101,168	28,663
– Gross Shorts:	71,753	184,031	48,830
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	21.3	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-2.4	8.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	34.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	47.4	8.1
– Net Position:	34,857	-34,534	-323
– Gross Longs:	98,526	94,174	21,808
– Gross Shorts:	63,669	128,708	22,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	41.2	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-2.6	16.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	48.1	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	41.3	6.4
– Net Position:	-11,738	14,393	-2,655
– Gross Longs:	65,344	101,388	10,925
– Gross Shorts:	77,082	86,995	13,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	72.9	0.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.8	-19.3	-26.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	39.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	63.6	5.7
– Net Position:	17,352	-21,708	4,356
– Gross Longs:	27,337	35,318	9,480
– Gross Shorts:	9,985	57,026	5,124
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.7	71.8	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-2.1	12.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -116,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,969 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	39.3	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	14.8	6.9
– Net Position:	-116,808	109,606	7,202
– Gross Longs:	114,740	175,679	38,188
– Gross Shorts:	231,548	66,073	30,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	96.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.7	25.3	33.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by VIX & Russell 2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by VIX & Russell 2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (9,985 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (6,313 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (4,662 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (618 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-6,817 contracts) and the S&P500-Mini (-2,731 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (98 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (87 percent) and Russell-Mini (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, there are no markets at less than 50 percent of the past 3-year range.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (98.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (89.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (69.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (61.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (87.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (97.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (81.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (77.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (74.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (74.0 percent)

Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent), the DowJones-Mini (7 percent) and the Russell-Mini (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-1.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (10.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-26.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-28.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (7.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (12.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (23.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (6.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-26.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	43.3	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	46.1	9.3
– Net Position:	4,240	-7,837	3,597
– Gross Longs:	74,898	120,747	29,624
– Gross Shorts:	70,658	128,584	26,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	1.3	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-2.9	28.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -78,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	74.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	72.9	9.4
– Net Position:	-78,666	37,753	40,913
– Gross Longs:	240,096	1,592,776	240,722
– Gross Shorts:	318,762	1,555,023	199,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	40.5	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	34.3	-32.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	64.0	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	67.4	14.4
– Net Position:	5,549	-2,637	-2,912
– Gross Longs:	13,202	50,136	8,381
– Gross Shorts:	7,653	52,773	11,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.3	34.4	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-0.8	-22.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	53.8	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	63.3	16.2
– Net Position:	30,863	-23,292	-7,571
– Gross Longs:	77,026	132,873	32,433
– Gross Shorts:	46,163	156,165	40,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.0	28.5	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	19.5	-49.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	72.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	71.9	5.8
– Net Position:	-406	3,154	-2,748
– Gross Longs:	84,850	333,928	23,884
– Gross Shorts:	85,256	330,774	26,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	25.9	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-1.5	-20.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	88.2	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	87.1	1.2
– Net Position:	-10,432	4,960	5,472
– Gross Longs:	43,109	414,031	11,117
– Gross Shorts:	53,541	409,071	5,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.8	32.2	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	4.6	-11.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

02 May

Stock indices are rising amid the signing of trade agreements with the US. Natural gas prices rose to a 3-week high

By JustMarkets

Wall Street opened May on a strong note. The Dow Jones (US30) was up 0.21% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.63%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 1.10%. Strong earnings results from technology giants and optimism about global trade talks drove the rise. Microsoft shares jumped by 10% after the company predicted stronger-than-expected growth in its Azure cloud business, while Meta shares rose more than 6% on better-than-expected revenue. Meanwhile, General Motors shares rose by 1.5% after the company released new 2025 earnings expectations.

On trade, President Trump highlighted potential agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, and expressed confidence in reaching a deal with China. Meanwhile, economic data showed that initial jobless claims hit a nine-week high and jobless claims hit their highest since 2021, while US manufacturing contracted again in April amid tariff disruptions.

The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.3 in April 2025 from 46.3 in the previous month, marking the third consecutive deterioration in factory activity and the lowest reading since May 2020, driven by a sharp decline in output and new orders. Companies noted that tariffs and the unpredictable nature of US trade policy have weighed heavily on demand, with output and new work declining at a pace not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, and new export orders falling sharply over the past five years.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly closed yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40), France’s CAC 40 (FR40), and Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) indices were not trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.02%.

Oil fell more than 2% amid demand concerns and expectations of increased supply from OPEC+, with Saudi Arabia signaling that it may accept lower prices and demand an increase in production at the May 5 meeting. Despite the bearish sentiment, geopolitical risks remain: US lawmakers insist on imposing tough sanctions against Russia, as well as continued repression of Iranian and Venezuelan oil. On the demand side, weak economic data, including a contraction in US GDP and China’s worst manufacturing slowdown since 2023, had a negative impact.

In the week ended April 25, the US utilities added 107 billion cubic feet of gas to storage to 2.041 trillion cubic feet, in line with market expectations of 110 billion cubic feet and the sharpest increase in inventories in two years. Natural gas prices rose to a 3-week high of $3.4/MMBtu.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.13% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading yesterday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.24%.

Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% in March, slightly below expectations of 0.4%. Combined with a decline in core inflation, the latest data has reinforced market expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia soon. The RBA is widely expected to cut its money rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in May, with markets expecting a further cut to 2.85% by the end of the year.

Indonesian consumer prices rose to 1.95% y/y in April 2025, accelerating from March’s 1.03% increase. This was the highest annual rate since August 2024, driven by higher spending during Eid al-Fitr celebrations. Despite the increase, inflation remained within the Central Bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. Core inflation, which excludes food prices, rose to a 22-month high of 2.50%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,604.14 +35.08 (+0.63%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,752.96 +83.60 (+0.21%)

DAX (DE40) 22,496.98 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,496.80 +1.95 (+0.023%)

USD Index 100.19 +0.73 (+0.73%)

News feed for: 2025.05.02

Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

01 May

US GDP unexpectedly contracted. Oil prices fell by 18% over the month.

By JustMarkets

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.35%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.15%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 0.13%. Investors brushed off recession fears despite data showing the economy contracted for the first quarterly contraction in three years. The US economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter, missing expectations as businesses rushed to import goods before Trump’s tariffs took effect. While consumer spending rose a stronger-than-expected 0.7% in March, low hiring and government spending cuts underscored growing economic pressures.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.38 per dollar, its strongest level since October, after the Bank of Canada’s latest meeting minutes showed a marked pullback from its earlier dovish rhetoric. The minutes emphasized the need for caution, expressing concerns that further easing could jeopardize efforts to control inflation, thus lowering expectations of a rate cut soon. The longs were further boosted by preliminary data that Canada’s economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter, avoiding a technical recession and in sharp contrast to the US.

The Mexican peso is holding near 19.60 per US dollar, remaining at its highest level in six months, as investors digest the latest data on economic growth. The Mexican economy avoided a technical recession thanks to preliminary first-quarter GDP growth of 0.2%, beating expectations of stagnation and recovering from a 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.50% higher, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) Index fell by 0.59%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.37%. While the US economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, Eurozone GDP growth came in above analysts’ expectations. The German economy emerged from a brief downturn, posting a 0.2% growth in Q1 after contracting 0.2% in the previous quarter, which matched expectations. Meanwhile, German inflation fell for the second consecutive month to 2.1% in April, the lowest since October 2024, but still slightly above the market prognoses of 2.0%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 3.7% to $58.20 a barrel on Wednesday, posting their steepest monthly drop since the end of 2021, down 18% amid growing concerns about a global supply glut and weakening demand. Prices were pressured by Saudi Arabia’s signal to increase production and regain market share, while OPEC+ is reportedly considering additional production increases at its May 5 meeting, adding to fears of a renewed price war.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.57%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.61%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.51%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.69%.

In New Zealand, markets are firmly expecting a 25bps rate cut at the Central Bank’s meeting later this month, with rates set to be at 2.75% by October. On the economic front, recent data showed that business confidence in New Zealand deteriorated in April due to concerns over US tariffs. For April, the kiwi dollar rose strongly by 4.6%.

The Australian dollar climbed above US$0.64 on Thursday, building on gains made in the previous session following the release of strong trade balance data. Australia reported a trade surplus of A$6.9 billion in March, up significantly from February’s A$2.85 billion. The currency was further supported by April data, which showed that manufacturing activity continued to grow, and new orders increased at the fastest pace in almost two and a half years, which is a positive sign for domestic demand.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,569.06 +8.23 (+0.15%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,669.36 +141.74 (+0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 22,496.98 +71.15 (+0.32%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,494.85 +31.39 (+0.37%)

USD Index 99.64 (+0.41%)

News feed for: 2025.05.01

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Apr

Inflation in Australia continues to decline. China’s PMI data disappointed investors

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.75% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.58%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.61%. Stocks headed higher on Tuesday after weaker-than-expected reports on US job openings and consumer confidence crashed 10-year T-note yields to 3-week lows, raising the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Markets have moved to estimate a 100 bps Fed rate cut within a year, compared with the Central Bank’s 50 bps announcement last month.

A preliminary estimate saw the US trade deficit widen sharply to $162 billion in March 2025, a record high, exceeding the market consensus expectations of $146 billion, as tariffs threatened by the US government force domestic companies to increase imports.

The Canadian dollar hit 1.38 per dollar, trading near its highest level in six months, as G10 currencies continued to receive support from a flight from dollar assets and markets assessed the outlook for domestic economic policy under the newly elected Liberal Party government. Canada’s Liberal Party won its fourth consecutive election by a relatively small margin, which put little pressure on the CAD after expectations of a majority victory. Still, it made former Bank of England and BoE Governor Mark Carney the Prime Minister of a minority government. So far, the incumbent PM has refrained from prioritizing a trade deal with the US, emphasizing Canada’s influence and preferring to make deals with other countries. At the same time, the Bank of Canada noted that an uncertain US trade policy risks a recession in Canada if the US continues to impose an aggressive tariff package.

Equity markets in Europe traded without a single dynamic yesterday. German DAX (DE40) gained 0.69%, French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.24%, Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.66%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher 0.55%. Frankfurt’s DAX Index rose about 0.7% on Tuesday to 22,426, its highest level since early April and marking its sixth consecutive session of gains. The rise came as investors weighed a wave of corporate earnings and former President Trump’s proposal to cut tariffs on auto parts for US-made vehicles. Germany’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank, was also in the spotlight, rising 5% after posting better-than-expected first-quarter earnings.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 2% to below $61 a barrel, a two-week low, and extended a 1.5% decline in the previous session as global trade tensions and weak US data worsened the demand outlook. Oil is on track for its sharpest monthly decline since 2021, falling 15% in April, as fears grow that President Trump’s escalating tariffs could push the global economy into recession. The US consumer confidence fell, adding to signs of economic strain.

Asian markets were mostly rising on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.16%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.92%. Hong Kong stocks fell 72 points in early trading on Wednesday, reversing the previous session’s modest gains, as investors reacted to China’s April PMI data. Official data showed factory activity contracted by the most in 16 months, amid growing concerns about the impact of rising US tariffs. In contrast, the private survey showed unexpected growth in manufacturing, albeit at the slowest pace since January. Meanwhile, growth in the services sector also weakened, with the reading falling short of expectations.

Headline inflation in Australia rose by 2.4% in the first quarter, in line with the previous quarter’s pace and slightly above market expectations of 2.3%. However, core inflation fell to 2.9% from 3.3%, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut soon. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut its monetary rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in May, with markets’ pricing in further easing to 2.85% by year-end. The outlook is shaped by rising domestic economic uncertainty and heightened external risks, particularly the potential global impact of new US tariffs.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,560.83 +32.08 (+0.58%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,527.62 +300.03 (+0.75%)

DAX (DE40) 22,425.83 +154.16 (+0.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,463.46 +46.12 (+0.55%)

USD Index 99.19 +0.18 (+0.18%)

News feed for: 2025.04.30

Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Thailand BoT Interest Rate Decision at 10:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
German GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
Mexico GDP (q/q) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Apr

Japanese Yen Edges Lower as Weak Data Dampens Confidence

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is rising cautiously for a second consecutive day, reaching 142.48, as a string of underwhelming economic figures from Japan weighs on market sentiment.

Key factors driving USD/JPY Movement

March’s economic data revealed a larger-than-expected contraction in industrial production, while retail sales growth also fell short of forecasts. Collectively, these indicators point to potential challenges for Japan’s economy.

Market focus now shifts to the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.5%.

The BoJ’s commentary will likely remain cautious as policymakers assess the potential fallout from new US tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy.

In a recent development, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the Trump administration has extensively discussed a potential trade agreement with Japan – a sign that bilateral tensions may be easing.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has broken below the 142.75 level and continues to decline towards 141.56. This move is considered a correction within the broader upward trend. Once this correction ends, a new bullish wave towards 144.00 may begin. A breakout above 144.00 could pave the way for a further rise towards the local target of 146.40. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below zero and sloping decisively downwards.

On the H1 chart, USDJPY is consolidating around the 142.30 level. A rise towards 142.75 is possible today, followed by a decline to 141.67, which marks a local target for the corrective move. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 and preparing to reverse towards 20.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure amid a lacklustre economic performance while traders await fresh cues from the BoJ. While a technical rebound appears likely after the correction, the pair’s near-term trajectory will hinge on trade developments and US tariff policy.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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