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Metals Charts: COT Speculator Bets led by Copper & Palladium

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (2,334 contracts) with Palladium (927 contracts) and Steel (148 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-821 contracts), Silver (-691 contracts) and Platinum (-452 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (29 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (41.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.2 percent)
Silver (78.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.3 percent)
Copper (53.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.3 percent)
Platinum (38.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.5 percent)
Palladium (29.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.5 percent)
Steel (80.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (79.5 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets have negative trends currently.

Platinum (-10 percent) and Copper (-12 percent) have the least negative trends this week while Gold (-33.2 percent) has the most negative trend at the moment.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-33.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-35.9 percent)
Silver (-14.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.6 percent)
Copper (-11.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.4 percent)
Platinum (-9.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-24.9 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-18.2 percent)
Steel (-13.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-17.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 162,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly dip of -821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,318 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	19.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	61.7	5.1
– Net Position:	162,497	-192,103	29,606
– Gross Longs:	237,445	87,244	52,632
– Gross Shorts:	74,948	279,347	23,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	53.2	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.2	31.2	3.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 49,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	22.9	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	71.3	6.5
– Net Position:	49,252	-67,803	18,551
– Gross Longs:	70,335	32,146	27,737
– Gross Shorts:	21,083	99,949	9,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	19.4	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	14.3	-5.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	31.9	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	43.5	6.6
– Net Position:	21,703	-22,355	652
– Gross Longs:	71,777	61,510	13,342
– Gross Shorts:	50,074	83,865	12,690
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	51.2	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	10.5	1.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	24.0	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	42.0	5.3
– Net Position:	9,510	-14,040	4,530
– Gross Longs:	44,605	18,742	8,637
– Gross Shorts:	35,095	32,782	4,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.5	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	13.5	-30.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,918 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	51.8	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.1	7.6	7.2
– Net Position:	-9,991	9,512	479
– Gross Longs:	6,396	11,158	2,026
– Gross Shorts:	16,387	1,646	1,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	6.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	69.8	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	16.0	-18.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	62.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	64.4	0.8
– Net Position:	806	-744	-62
– Gross Longs:	10,534	21,095	218
– Gross Shorts:	9,728	21,839	280
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	21.4	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	14.6	-17.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

11 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by SOFR 3-Month & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month with a gain of 11,313 contracts for the week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-172,797 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-81,631 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-62,008 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-14,416 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13,381 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-10,233 contracts), the Fed Funds (-8,245 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-3,952 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (73 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (66 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (34.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (26.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (53.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (78.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (66.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (63.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (31.1 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (11 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (0 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-72 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-20 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-18 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (10.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-2.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-18.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-13.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-71.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-48.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-20.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (11.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (2.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (5.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -115,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	67.5	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	62.0	1.7
– Net Position:	-115,965	103,159	12,806
– Gross Longs:	313,631	1,265,461	45,399
– Gross Shorts:	429,596	1,162,302	32,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	60.8	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	2.1	-12.9

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -738,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -172,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -565,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	61.0	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	54.1	0.3
– Net Position:	-738,403	735,570	2,833
– Gross Longs:	1,195,710	6,541,847	35,761
– Gross Shorts:	1,934,113	5,806,277	32,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	77.6	85.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.2	1.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	63.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	62.4	0.2
– Net Position:	-8,091	10,503	-2,412
– Gross Longs:	198,034	721,268	283
– Gross Shorts:	206,125	710,765	2,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	34.1	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-14.2	35.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,220,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,206,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	78.3	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	52.2	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,220,793	1,073,415	147,378
– Gross Longs:	549,885	3,219,754	256,003
– Gross Shorts:	1,770,678	2,146,339	108,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	78.7	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	1.1	8.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,296,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,292,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	82.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	53.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,296,496	2,066,750	229,746
– Gross Longs:	603,900	5,833,463	461,099
– Gross Shorts:	2,900,396	3,766,713	231,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.3	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	19.5	10.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -953,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -81,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -871,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	78.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	62.5	6.4
– Net Position:	-953,168	812,188	140,980
– Gross Longs:	468,266	3,936,983	458,736
– Gross Shorts:	1,421,434	3,124,795	317,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	78.2	93.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	12.8	11.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -283,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -62,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -221,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	77.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	63.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-283,697	323,389	-39,692
– Gross Longs:	286,185	1,769,437	216,393
– Gross Shorts:	569,882	1,446,048	256,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	89.7	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-71.9	79.3	-1.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -95,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	75.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	75.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-95,789	-2,704	98,493
– Gross Longs:	187,829	1,361,393	230,957
– Gross Shorts:	283,618	1,364,097	132,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	38.2	85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.0	16.9	-0.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -264,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -251,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	82.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	70.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-264,775	239,311	25,464
– Gross Longs:	123,949	1,565,107	177,814
– Gross Shorts:	388,724	1,325,796	152,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.2	31.5	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	18.1	-17.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

11 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Wheat & Live Cattle this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (9,271 contracts) with Live Cattle (5,601 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,644 contracts), Cotton (1,662 contracts) and Coffee (52 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-59,530 contracts), Soybeans (-10,088 contracts), Sugar (-16,325 contracts), Soybean Meal (-221 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,260 contracts) and with Cocoa (-441 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (86 percent) and Soybean Oil (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (74 percent), Soybeans (63 percent) and Lean Hogs (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (5 percent), Wheat (6 percent) and Sugar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (51.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (59.7 percent)
Sugar (17.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.0 percent)
Coffee (73.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (73.6 percent)
Soybeans (63.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (80.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.4 percent)
Live Cattle (85.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.8 percent)
Cotton (31.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (30.6 percent)
Cocoa (27.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.7 percent)
Wheat (6.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Soybean Oil & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (50 percent) and Cotton (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (16 percent) and Lean Hogs (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-11 percent), Live Cattle (-9 percent) and Sugar (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-11.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.6 percent)
Sugar (-9.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.2 percent)
Coffee (-8.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-6.6 percent)
Soybeans (16.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (44.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-1.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-9.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.2 percent)
Cotton (26.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.8 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.9 percent)
Wheat (-17.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-27.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 115,899 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -59,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 175,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	45.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	50.1	11.0
– Net Position:	115,899	-75,297	-40,602
– Gross Longs:	376,617	701,110	129,869
– Gross Shorts:	260,718	776,407	170,471
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	49.4	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	9.2	22.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	53.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	55.5	8.2
– Net Position:	22,440	-18,002	-4,438
– Gross Longs:	196,150	424,216	61,109
– Gross Shorts:	173,710	442,218	65,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	85.7	14.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	14.8	-34.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 49,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 52 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.6	36.9	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	70.4	4.0
– Net Position:	49,341	-51,788	2,447
– Gross Longs:	59,594	56,913	8,598
– Gross Shorts:	10,253	108,701	6,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	27.6	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	9.0	-5.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 49,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	50.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	54.4	8.0
– Net Position:	49,385	-30,958	-18,427
– Gross Longs:	177,646	392,063	43,458
– Gross Shorts:	128,261	423,021	61,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	35.7	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-19.7	24.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	45.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	58.7	4.4
– Net Position:	66,905	-75,639	8,734
– Gross Longs:	155,811	262,712	33,834
– Gross Shorts:	88,906	338,351	25,100
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	23.0	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.9	-51.3	41.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	50.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	44.3	5.1
– Net Position:	-53,955	33,912	20,043
– Gross Longs:	119,134	285,863	49,215
– Gross Shorts:	173,089	251,951	29,172
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.3	91.2	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	1.0	11.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 108,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	27.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	49.7	13.5
– Net Position:	108,631	-84,943	-23,688
– Gross Longs:	185,603	105,351	27,847
– Gross Shorts:	76,972	190,294	51,535
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.6	18.8	14.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	11.7	-0.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	35.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	48.5	8.2
– Net Position:	37,501	-34,963	-2,538
– Gross Longs:	100,650	95,588	19,676
– Gross Shorts:	63,149	130,551	22,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	40.9	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.8	-0.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	47.1	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.1	6.2
– Net Position:	-10,076	13,137	-3,061
– Gross Longs:	64,851	103,419	10,468
– Gross Shorts:	74,927	90,282	13,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	72.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-23.3	-22.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	40.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	63.5	5.7
– Net Position:	16,911	-21,174	4,263
– Gross Longs:	27,028	36,520	9,402
– Gross Shorts:	10,117	57,694	5,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	72.3	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.6	8.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	38.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.9	16.4	6.7
– Net Position:	-107,537	101,506	6,031
– Gross Longs:	119,875	176,106	36,682
– Gross Shorts:	227,412	74,600	30,651
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	94.0	90.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.2	16.3	15.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

11 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led higher by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (6,703 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (5,840 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (2,261 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (1,984 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (246 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was the Russell-Mini with a drop of -14,422 contracts on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (90 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (83 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (65.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (69.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (69.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (90.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (81.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (83.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (37 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (35 percent), the VIX (17 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-4 percent) is the only market with a lower trend score currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (17.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-26.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (37.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (0.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (10.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	43.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	48.4	8.4
– Net Position:	10,943	-13,545	2,602
– Gross Longs:	71,127	121,604	25,910
– Gross Shorts:	60,184	135,149	23,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-13.5	-19.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -76,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	74.0	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	72.2	9.4
– Net Position:	-76,405	40,182	36,223
– Gross Longs:	251,351	1,579,940	237,311
– Gross Shorts:	327,756	1,539,758	201,088
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	40.9	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	11.1	-20.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	63.1	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	67.7	14.8
– Net Position:	5,795	-3,505	-2,290
– Gross Longs:	12,694	48,033	8,949
– Gross Shorts:	6,899	51,538	11,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	33.2	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-8.9	-23.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,847 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	52.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	61.4	15.9
– Net Position:	32,847	-22,754	-10,093
– Gross Longs:	85,091	135,792	31,046
– Gross Shorts:	52,244	158,546	41,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	29.1	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.4	1.2	-48.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	73.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.6	6.1
– Net Position:	-14,828	18,843	-4,015
– Gross Longs:	75,021	331,976	23,509
– Gross Shorts:	89,849	313,133	27,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	35.5	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	5.8	-28.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.3	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	88.8	1.0
– Net Position:	-4,592	-2,617	7,209
– Gross Longs:	42,076	411,014	11,942
– Gross Shorts:	46,668	413,631	4,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	23.1	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-7.4	-6.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

09 May

The US and UK signed a trade agreement. China’s trade balance data pleased investors

By JustMarkets

US stocks continued to rise on Thursday as expectations of tariff cuts from major trading partners triggered a rally in US capital markets. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.62%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.58%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.98%. President Trump unveiled a trade deal with the UK that keeps existing tariffs in place but signals fewer future US export restrictions. Stocks only gained momentum after the President acknowledged the possibility of lower tariffs against China after talks that begin this weekend.

Technology stocks surged, with Tesla (TSLA) jumping more than 4% and Palantir (PLTR) soaring 7.5%, reversing yesterday’s decline. Shares of Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG) also rose, partially recovering from last session’s decline.

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) strengthened to 19.50 per US dollar, again nearing a six-month-high, as Consumer Price Index data supported a cautious stance on rate cuts and optimism that trade tensions are easing. Core annual inflation accelerated to 3.93% in April, slightly above expectations, while the monthly figure rose by 0.49% month-on-month, suggesting the Bank of Mexico may need to slow interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rose about 9% this week, breaking the key psychological threshold of $100,000 for the first time since early February. Two US states passed legislation authorizing strategic bitcoin reserves. Meanwhile, the federal government confirmed that US banks can “responsibly” trade digital assets on behalf of customers and can outsource trading of digital currency and custody services to trusted third parties. These developments have reinforced the view of Bitcoin as a mature asset class.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.89%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.06%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) fell by 0.32%. On Thursday, European stocks held on to early gains and closed with solid gains. Most sectors rose as markets assessed recent developments in European trade and monetary policy. Sweden’s Riksbank kept its discount rate at 2.25% for May 2025, in line with expectations, citing increased global uncertainty, especially following the US trade policy shift, which has led to volatility in markets and weakened growth prospects in both the US and Europe. Norges Bank left its key rate unchanged at 4.5% at its May 2025 meeting, keeping it at a 15-year high for more than one year, in line with market expectations and Central Bank signals. Like other monetary authorities that monitor G10 currencies, Norges Bank emphasized that trade barriers imposed by the United States and other major economies are increasing uncertainty in the global macroeconomic backdrop.

WTI crude oil prices rose nearly 3.2% to reach $59.9 per barrel on Thursday, driven by renewed hopes of progress in upcoming trade talks between the US and China, key players in the global oil market. Lingering trade tensions between the US and China have raised concerns about a decline in global oil consumption, but signs of diplomatic engagement have helped ease market fears. At the same time, the announcement of a trade agreement between the US and the UK boosted positive sentiment.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.41%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.63%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.37%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.16%.

China’s trade surplus in April 2025 rose to US$96.18 billion from US$72.04 billion in the same period a year earlier and exceeded market expectations of US$89 billion. The sharp increase was mainly due to an 8.1% year-on-year rise in exports, well above market projections that expected a 1.9% rise, despite growth weakening from 12.4% in March as shipments to the US were weakened by Trump’s tariffs.

The New Zealand dollar fell as low as 0.588 US dollars on Friday, extending losses for a third straight session and hitting its lowest level in more than three weeks. The kiwi came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Britain, which he called “the first of many.” It also raised hopes for progress in talks between the US and China in Switzerland over the weekend.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,663.94 +32.66 (+0.58%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,368.45 +254.48 (+0.62%)

DAX (DE40) 23,352.69 +236.73 (+1.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,531.61 −27.72 (−0.32%)

USD Index 100.64 +1.02 (+1.03%)

News feed for: 2025.05.09

China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:40 (GMT+3);
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 May

Oil prices rose to 60 dollars per barrel. PBoC lowered reserve requirement ratios (RRR) by 50 bps

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) was down 0.95%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.77%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.88%. The US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as investor sentiment deteriorated amid mixed trade signals. President Trump’s wavering stance on trade — he said “we don’t have to sign deals” — contradicts recent optimism from Treasury officials and dampens hopes for tariff relief. Diplomatic tensions also rose after a sharp exchange with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said “Canada is not for sale,” prompting Trump to respond, “Never say never.”

The US trade deficit widened to $140.5 billion in March 2025, hitting a new record high, compared with expectations of a $137 billion deficit. Imports jumped 4.4% to a record $419 billion in anticipation of new tariff announcements in April.

Technology stocks weakened, with Meta down 1.8% and Tesla down 1.7% on disappointing European sales. Palantir Technologies fell by 12% after results fell short of investor expectations, while Ford rose 2.4%, even after warning that tariffs could cut the company’s 2025 earnings by about $2.5 billion.

The US Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The US Federal Reserve is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting in May 2025, as policymakers take into account slowing inflation amid a still-resilient labor market and increased uncertainty over trade policy.

Canada’s trade deficit in March 2025 was CAD 0.51 billion, down from the CAD 1.41 billion deficit recorded in February. The improvement came amid a sharper decline in imports compared to exports, driven by retaliatory tariffs by Ottawa in response to new US duties, as well as a voluntary boycott of US goods by Canadian retailers and households.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.40%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.09%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was up 0.01%. European stocks closed modestly lower on Tuesday, capping off the rally of the past four weeks, as markets digested earnings reports, political setbacks, and continued to assess how economic uncertainty is affecting corporate orders. German conservative leader Friedrich Merz was elected chancellor in the second round of voting in Germany’s Bundestag, but the first vote unexpectedly ended without his election. On the corporate front, technology, retail, and pharmaceutical stocks were among the top losers.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $60 a barrel on Wednesday, extending their gains of more than 3% from the previous session, helped by signs of lower production in the US and rising demand in Europe and China. Adding to the upbeat sentiment were reports that US and Chinese officials will meet this week, boosting hopes of easing tensions between the two biggest oil consumers. In addition, API data showed a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories, with a 4.5 million barrel drop last week, exceeding the expected 2.5 million barrel decline.

The US natural gas futures rose to $3.6/MMBtu on Tuesday after declining 2.2% in the previous session, helped by lower production and record LNG exports. Production fell about 4.8 Bcf/d to a seven-week low of 102.6 Bcf/d on Tuesday. In addition, the US remains the world’s top LNG exporter, supported by robust international demand despite the recent slowdown in the domestic market.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 1.04%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.51%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.70%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.08%.

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng announced a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on Wednesday, which could lead to an injection of around RMB1 trillion in liquidity. This is the first RRR cut in 2025 as Beijing seeks to support economic growth amid escalating trade tensions with the US. Meanwhile, the Central Bank decided to cut the rate on seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by 10 basis points to 1.40%, effective Thursday, May 8. This is the first key rate cut since September 2024 and could lead to a broader cut in rates on market and liquidity instruments.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,606.91 −43.47 (−0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,829.00 −389.83 (−0.95%)

DAX (DE40) 23,249.65 −94.89 (−0.41%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,597.42 +1.07 (+0.012%)

USD Index 99.19 −0.64 (−0.64%)

News feed for: 2025.05.07

New Zealand Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Federal Funds Rate at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 May

Tariff policy uncertainty persists. China’s service sector shows a decline

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was down 0.24%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.64%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.67%. Markets reacted to President Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs, including a 100% tax on foreign movies, but sentiment improved following stronger-than-expected ISM services sector data. Still, uncertainty remains after Trump said he has no plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping, causing investors to stay cautious. The energy sector led the decline, followed by the consumer discretionary and technology sectors.

The S&P Global Canada Services PMI for April 2025 rose slightly to 41.5 from 41.2 in the previous month, reflecting the fifth consecutive period of contraction in Canadian services activity at a historically high rate. While recovering slightly from March’s decline, business confidence remained historically weak amid continued uncertainty.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.12%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.55%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was not trading yesterday. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged following the release of a good employment report for April. Several major companies, including Continental, Hugo Boss, BMW, Fresenius, Infineon, Puma, Heidelberg Materials, Commerzbank, Zalando, and Siemens Energy are also due to report quarterly results this week. Volkswagen, meanwhile, reaffirmed its full-year outlook, excluding the potential impact of US tariffs, after reporting a 12.4% rise in first-quarter revenue, helped by higher sales of electric vehicles.

Swiss consumer prices were unchanged year-on-year in April 2025 after rising to 0.3% y/y in March and defeating expectations for a 0.2% increase. This is the lowest rate since deflation was recorded in March 2021. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 0.6% from 0.9% in March.

WTI crude futures rose more than 1% to $58 a barrel on Tuesday, breaking a two-day decline amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. On Monday, Israel launched airstrikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port and cement factory in response to an attack by Iranian-backed Houthis with ballistic missiles that hit Israel’s main airport a day earlier.

Silver (XAG/USD) prices rose more than 1% to $32.40 per ounce on Monday, recovering from last week’s losses amid a weaker US dollar, amid lingering concerns over trade relations between the US and China. President Donald Trump has said he has no plans to speak with his Chinese counterpart this week, but has signaled a willingness to cut tariffs on Chinese imports to boost trade. Last week, China said it might consider launching trade talks with the US, but emphasized that Washington must first lift all unilateral tariffs to demonstrate sincerity of intent.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.21%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.97%.

The Caixin China Services PMI fell to 50.7 in April 2025, down from March’s three-month high of 51.9 and below market expectations of 51.7, marking the lowest growth in the services sector since September last year. Business sentiment fell to the second-lowest level since data collection began in November 2005 due to concerns about the negative impact of trade policy changes.

Indonesia’s economy contracted by 0.98% QoQ in the first quarter of 2025, the first quarterly GDP contraction in a year and short of the market consensus expecting a 0.89% contraction. The decline followed a 0.53% rise in Q4, helped by a sharp contraction in government spending.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,650.38 −36.29 (−0.64%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,218.83 −98.60 (−0.24%)

DAX (DE40) 23,344.54 +257.89 (+1.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,596.35 +99.55 (+1.17%)

USD Index 99.81 −0.22 (−0.22%)

News feed for: 2025.05.06

Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 May

Japanese yen halts gains as US trade negotiations return to the spotlight

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY had an opportunity to correct after two consecutive days of decline, with Tuesday’s trading centred around 143.78.

Dollar strengthens on trade optimism and Fed anticipation

The US dollar regained ground as markets reacted to renewed expectations surrounding US-China trade negotiations. Investor caution also grew ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting, which begins today.

President Donald Trump cautiously suggested that the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports might be reduced. However, true to form, he offered only a vague hint, further adding to the already uncertain outlook for US-China relations.

Markets are also paying attention to the US-Japan bilateral talks regarding trade engagement. Tokyo aims to finalise an agreement before the June deadline, and any delays could complicate the process further.

Meanwhile, last week’s Bank of Japan meeting saw no change in the key interest rate, which remains at 0.5% per annum. However, the BoJ lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts, reinforcing the view that it does not intend to raise rates soon.

Japan observes a bank holiday on Tuesday, so no major domestic news is expected.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a growth wave towards 145.86, followed by the start of a corrective phase. The first downward impulse reached 143.72, followed by a correction to 145.05. The market is now forming a consolidation range around 144.30. A downward breakout from this range could send the pair to 142.75. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, as its signal line has exited the histogram area and points firmly downwards, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

On the H1 chart, the pair is building a corrective structure targeting 142.75. The local correction target of 143.53 has already been achieved. Today, there is a strong likelihood of a fifth downward wave in this correction, with 142.75 as the next target. Once this level is reached, a new upward wave towards 145.86 may begin. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line below 50 and heading sharply towards 20, indicating strong short-term downside momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is currently in a corrective phase as markets digest renewed trade hopes and prepare for the Fed’s decision. Technical indicators support further downside towards 142.75, with a possible reversal to 145.86 thereafter. Trade talks with both China and Japan, along with the Fed’s stance, will remain the key drivers of short-term volatility for the pair.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 May

The US labor market unexpectedly showed resilience. Oil prices fell sharply after the OPEC+ meeting

By JustMarkets

The US stocks rose on Friday thanks to a strong jobs report and signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China, which boosted investor confidence. The Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 1.39% (up +2.85% on the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 1.47% (for the week +2.85%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 1.60% (for the week +3.45%). Nonfarm Payrolls for April rose by 177,000, exceeding expectations and bolstering optimism about the labor market despite lingering uncertainty over tariffs. Further supporting sentiment was Beijing’s openness to a resumption of trade talks, subject to tariff reductions from the US. However, earnings results remained mixed, with Apple shares falling 3.7% after warning of a $900 million tariff hit, and Amazon down 0.1% after a cautious outlook. Exxon Mobil shares were up 0.4% and Chevron was up 1.7% after the results were released.

Canadian GDP rose slightly in March despite falling prices of key Canadian commodities and pessimism over the country’s trade war with the US, reinforcing expectations that GDP may be somewhat resilient to a weakening US economy. On the political front, the Liberal Party of Canada won its fourth consecutive election by a relatively small margin, putting little pressure on the Lonnie after expectations of a majority victory, but still making former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney prime minister of a minority government. So far, the incumbent PM has refrained from prioritizing a trade deal with the US, emphasizing Canada’s influence and preferring to make deals with other countries.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 2.62% (for the week +3.94%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 2.33% higher (for the week +2.71%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.20% (for the week +1.22%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.17% higher (for the week +2.15%). In Europe, encouraging economic data emerged with inflation unchanged at 2.2% in April, although core inflation rose slightly to 2.7% from 2.5%. Meanwhile, final PMI data for April showed tentative signs of a recovery in manufacturing activity. Shell shares rose by 1.9% after beating first-quarter earnings expectations and launching a $3.5 billion share buyback. Standard Chartered also beat projections thanks to profit gains in wealth management and global banking services.

WTI crude futures fell more than 3% to around $56 a barrel on Monday as OPEC+ agreed to increase production, adding to fears of a global supply glut. OPEC+ will boost oil production for the second straight month, increasing output by 411,000 bpd in June. That could put as much as 2.2 million bpd back on the market by November as group leader Saudi Arabia seeks to punish some members of the organization that have exceeded their quotas.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 4.08%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 1.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.92%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 3.39% over the past week.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.645 on Monday, hitting its highest level in nearly five months, after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese won a second three-year term in Saturday’s federal election. Albanese promised the government would act in a “disciplined and orderly” manner, focusing on addressing rising living costs and global trade tensions. He also reiterated commitments to expand renewable energy, cut taxes, ease the housing crisis, and invest in Australia’s strained health system. On monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in May.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around US$0.598 on Monday, extending gains from the previous session, helped by continued weakness in the US dollar as investors awaited clearer signals on trade relations between the US and China. On Sunday, President Trump reiterated his confidence that China wants a deal, although he did not provide any details. Meanwhile, Beijing signaled last week that it was open to talks but insisted that the US first remove all unilateral tariffs.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,686.67 +82.53 (+1.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,317.43 +564.47 (+1.39%)

DAX (DE40) 23,086.65 +589.67 (+2.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,596.35 +99.55 (+1.17%)

USD Index 100.04 -0.21 (-0.21%)

News feed for: 2025.05.05

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 May

Gold rises as demand for safe-haven assets returns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices climbed to 3,260 USD per troy ounce on Monday, as global uncertainty—particularly around US-China trade negotiations—continues to drive demand for safe-haven assets.

Trade tensions and a weaker dollar support gold

Market sentiment remains cautious after US President Donald Trump stated that China is ready to make a deal, yet offered no specifics on the content or timing of renewed negotiations.

Earlier, Beijing confirmed it was reviewing US proposals to restart talks but reiterated that certain conditions must be met before any dialogue can begin. This lingering uncertainty continues to bolster investor interest in gold.

Adding to the upside pressure, the US dollar weakened, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies.

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which begins on Tuesday and concludes on Wednesday evening. Markets widely expect the Fed to maintain current interest rates, despite renewed calls from Trump to lower them.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating around 3,266 USD. A decline to 3,165 USD is possible in the short term. After reaching this level, the market may correct back up to 3,266 USD. If the correction completes, another downward wave could unfold with a target at 3,033 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, gold broke below 3,266 USD, reached the local target of 3,202 USD, and then corrected back up to test 3,266 USD from below. The formation of another downside wave towards 3,179 USD is relevant today. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below 80 and heading directly towards 20, indicating continued downward momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening dollar, while technical indicators point to short-term downside potential before another possible corrective rebound. Key levels to watch are 3,179 USD and 3,165 USD as near-term support, with a broader bearish target at 3,033 USD. The Fed’s upcoming meeting may influence price direction depending on its tone regarding interest rates and the broader economic outlook.

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