InvestMacro

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.38% (for the week -0.95%), while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.88% (for the week -0.37%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed 1.31% higher (for the week -0.03%). The US stock markets ended Friday with solid gains amid a triple-witching derivatives expiration. AI-related stocks showed signs of recovery, with Oracle shares jumping over 7% following reports that TikTok agreed to sell its US business to a new joint venture involving Oracle and Silver Lake. Micron Technology gained 7%, building on a 10% gain from the previous day, while Nvidia rose more than 3% amid reports that the Trump administration is considering allowing the company to sell advanced AI chips to China. Meanwhile, Nike shares plummeted 11% following a report of declining revenue in China and the negative impact of higher tariffs on the company’s gross margins.

European equity markets mostly rose. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.37% (weekly -0.04)%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) finished up 0.01% (weekly +0.80%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.22% (weekly +1.40%), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.61% higher (weekly +2.57%). The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged starting from June 2025 confirms the bank’s current neutral stance, meaning the central bank sees no need to ease or tighten monetary policy without a significant shift in inflation or economic growth. ECB staff expectations point to moderate growth and inflation in the medium term.

Precious metal prices climbed, with silver showing particularly strong momentum. Gold continues to receive structural support from central banks. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in November to a total of 74.1 million troy ounces, marking the thirteenth consecutive month of accumulation. Additionally, the World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, a 28% increase compared to the second quarter.

Silver is further supported by concerns over a physical metal deficit in China. As of November 21, silver inventories in warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 519,000 kg, the lowest level in the last 10 years. Although the market faced pressure from profit-taking and ETF outflows after reaching record highs in mid-October, demand from funds has begun to recover, with long positions in silver ETFs reaching a nearly 3.5-year high on Tuesday.

Asian markets traded with mixed results last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.38%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.40%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 0.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive five-day result of 1.18%.

As expected, the People’s Bank of China maintained its key lending rates at historic lows, leaving the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. This decision, representing the seventh consecutive period of no change, confirms the regulator’s stance that there is no urgent need for additional stimulus to reach annual GDP growth targets, despite November statistics showing a slowdown in retail sales and industrial production growth.

The New Zealand dollar is showing a steady recovery, rising toward 0.577 USD and nearly fully reversing its drop to two-week lows amid a revision of market expectations regarding Reserve Bank policy. The currency was supported by third-quarter GDP data confirming the national economy’s exit from a long period of stagnation, which significantly reduced the likelihood of monetary easing. Since the existing economic downturn prevents inflation from rising in the near term, market expectations for rate hikes have become more modest, with the probability of such a move by July falling from 50% to 40%.

At the close of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.79%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 1.38%. The US stock markets grew steadily on Thursday amid unexpectedly soft US inflation data. Annual inflation in November slowed to 2.7%, below market expectations, while the core figure fell to 2.6% – the lowest level since spring 2021 – fueling expectations of further Fed rate cuts next year. The consumer and technology sectors were the main drivers of growth, with Micron Technology shares soaring approximately 10% following strong quarterly earnings and a positive outlook.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) strengthened to around 18 per US dollar, its highest level since July 2024, after the Bank of Mexico, as expected, lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7%. This move, part of an ongoing monetary easing cycle that began about a year ago, reflects the regulator’s confidence that inflation will gradually return to the 3% target, despite core inflation remaining above 4% and weak domestic economic dynamics.

European stock markets grew confidently yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.00%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.80%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.65% on Thursday. The ECB, as expected, left interest rates unchanged and reaffirmed its commitment to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, as updated growth and inflation forecasts for 2026 provided no reason to revise the current policy course. At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that inflation is in a “narrow range,” and core inflation has not changed significantly, remaining near the 2% target. In the region, the Norwegian and Swedish central banks also kept rates unchanged, while the Bank of England, as expected, cut them by 25 basis points.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell approximately 3% to $3.9 per MMBtu, nearing a seven-week low. Price pressure is stemming from record-high production volumes and comfortable inventory levels: December production in the Lower 48 states is estimated at 109.7 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, comparable to November’s record levels. According to EIA data, 167 bcf of gas was withdrawn from storage for the week, slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that inventories still exceed the five-year average by about 0.9%.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose to $1,720 per ounce, reaching their highest level since January 2023, amid expectations of rising demand and shrinking supply. The market was supported by regulatory changes in Europe: the European Commission proposed softening the ban on internal combustion engines to 2035, lowering the emission-reduction target from 100% to 90%, and allowing the sale of some non-electric vehicles after 2035. This decision potentially supports palladium demand, as gasoline and hybrid vehicles still require catalytic converters.

Asian markets mostly rose on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.12%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.04%.

At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.47%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.16%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 1.81%. The US stock markets finished significantly down on Wednesday, extending their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session. The main pressure came from the technology sector amid persistent concerns over high valuations and massive investments in AI-related projects. Oracle shares tumbled 5.4% following reports that its key data center partner, Blue Owl, declined to support a $10 billion data center construction project. Nvidia shares fell by 3.8%, Broadcom by 4.5%, and AMD by 5.3%. Against this backdrop, the energy sector outperformed the market, receiving support from rising oil prices following President Trump’s order for a “full and comprehensive” blockade of oil tankers associated with Venezuela.

European stock markets traded without a uniform dynamic yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.25%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.92%. The European Central Bank, the Swedish Riksbank, and the Norges Bank are expected to keep interest rates unchanged and will likely maintain current policy levels through 2026. Even with the Bank of England’s expected rate cut on Thursday, markets are still pricing in only one additional cut next year, despite softer inflation data.

WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 2% on Wednesday, exceeding $56 per barrel, rebounding from a nearly five-year low reached in the previous session. The market was supported by US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a “full and comprehensive” blockade on sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela, following the recent detention of blacklisted vessels and an increased US military presence in the region. An additional growth factor was reports of a new round of US sanctions being prepared against Russia’s energy sector to increase pressure on Moscow in the context of negotiations over Ukraine.

Platinum (XPT) rose above $1,930 per ounce, reaching its highest level since 2008, amid growing economic and political uncertainty in the US, which bolstered demand for alternative assets for diversification. Growth was also driven by supply risks, as production in South Africa, the world’s largest platinum producer, came in weaker than expected. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) prognoses a market deficit of 69,000 ounces in 2025, the third consecutive year of deficit, before a move toward a balanced market with a small surplus is expected in 2026.

On Wednesday, silver appreciated by more than 4%, exceeding $66 per ounce and setting a new all-time high. The market received an extra boost following statements by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who allowed for the possibility of a 1% point rate cut in the US, citing nearly zero job growth and the need for moderate policy easing to support the labor market. In a broader perspective, silver’s price increase of nearly 130% since the start of the year is supported by structural factors: shrinking inventories and steady demand from industrial and retail investors, primarily in the solar energy, electric vehicle, and data center sectors.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.92%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.16%.

The Bank of Indonesia (BI), at its December 2025 monetary policy meeting, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% for the third consecutive time. This decision aligns with expectations and is aimed at supporting the Rupiah despite signs of slowing economic growth. The move follows a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points since September of last year, bringing the rate to its lowest level since October 2022. This stance reflects the central bank’s view that inflation in 2025–2026 will remain within the target range of 2.5% ± 1% due to a stable Rupiah and ongoing measures to sustain economic growth.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.62%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.24%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.23%. The November labor market report indicated a moderate cooling of the economy: employment growth was only 64K, accompanied by a sharp downward revision of October data and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6% – the highest level since 2021. Weaker US labor market and consumption data strengthened expectations for further Fed easing in 2026. Stagnant retail sales served as an additional signal of weakening demand. The energy sector pressured the indices due to oil prices falling below $55 per barrel, while tech giants traded mixed; gains in Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla, along with a recovery in Broadcom and Oracle, supported the Nasdaq.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened above 18 per US dollar, hitting its highest level since July 2024, amid dollar weakness and the maintenance of a relatively tight monetary policy in Mexico. At the same time, Mexico’s November inflation came in above expectations at approximately 3.8%, and the core indicator accelerated to the mid-4% range, confirming Banxico’s cautious stance. Consequently, attractive real rates and a stable yield differential continue to support capital inflows and demand for the peso.

European stock markets mostly declined yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed lower by 0.23%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.70%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.68%. Preliminary PMI indices indicated mixed dynamics in the Eurozone economy: overall private sector activity slowed due to weakness in the services sector and a continuing slump in manufacturing. Germany was the key factor in the deterioration, where the decline in manufacturing activity intensified, while in France, the slowdown in the services sector was more pronounced than the market expected, heightening concerns regarding the region’s growth rate.

Silver (XAG) hit an all-time high on Wednesday, rising toward $66 per ounce, driven by increased demand for alternative assets following the mixed US labor market report. Silver is further supported by fundamental factors: since the beginning of the year, the metal has appreciated by nearly 130% amid declining inventories and steady demand from industry and retail, particularly from the solar energy, electric vehicle, and data center sectors.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices fell by more than 2%, trading around $55.5 per barrel, the lowest level since early 2021. This brought year-to-date losses to approximately 22%, the worst annual performance since 2018. Expectations that the war in Ukraine might be nearing an end increased the likelihood of easing restrictions on Russian oil supplies, which would limit potential supply disruptions in an already well-supplied market. Simultaneously, economic data from China points to ongoing weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, clouding the demand outlook. However, downside risks were partially offset by the possibility of US military action in Venezuela following the Trump administration’s seizure of a supertanker last week.

Asian markets traded lower on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.56%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 1.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.42%.

The Australian dollar remained virtually unchanged, holding around $0.662, breaking its recent decline as latest government budget adjustments had no notable impact on central bank policy expectations. The budget deficit for the 2025/26 financial year is expected to be slightly lower at AUD 36.8 billion due to higher-than-projected tax revenues, while bond issuance plans remained unchanged. Amid steady spending, investors increased expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might need to raise the cash rate from the current 3.6% as early as June to curb inflation: analysts at CBA and NAB now allow for a rate hike in February, while Westpac considers such a move premature.