Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 2

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Metals Speculator Bets lower across the board

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Metals Speculator Bets lower across the board

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower positioning.

Leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-11,789 contracts) with Platinum (-2,804 contracts) and Silver (-1,440 contracts), Palladium (-582 contracts), Copper (-423 contracts) and Steel (-350 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

The metals markets speculator positions continue to cool off after a roaring start to the year that had seen record high price levels almost across the board for the metals. Copper and Steel continue to have strong speculative positions as well as strong price trends. These two markets remain in extreme bullish strength levels (above 80%) currently (which shows their current levels across a range of the past three years) while the other precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) have seen their speculator bets come down as well as their price levels have come back down to earth in the second quarter.

Copper leads the Metals Market price performance.

Copper was the leading gainer for the Precious Metals price performance this week with a 2.38% gain. Steel came in next with a 0.65% uptick while Silver rounded out the gainers with a 0.62% rise.

On the downside, Gold was lower by less than a percent with a -0.80% decrease and was followed by Platinum which fell by -1.88%. Palladium was the biggest decliner over the past five days with a -3.34% drop.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

On the downside, Silver (28 percent) and Gold (36 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (36.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.1 percent)
Silver (28.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (30.8 percent)
Copper (99.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (55.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (62.8 percent)
Palladium (75.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (79.3 percent)
Steel (84.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (85.9 percent)

Copper & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (32 percent) and Silver (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (1.4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.5 percent)
Silver (2.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.7 percent)
Copper (31.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.3 percent)
Platinum (-0.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (11.0 percent)
Palladium (-7.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-5.7 percent)
Steel (-1.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (2.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 159,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -11,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,622 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.6	18.3	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	68.8	4.0
– Net Position:	159,833	-191,629	31,796
– Gross Longs:	211,018	69,520	47,082
– Gross Shorts:	51,185	261,149	15,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	59.4	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	0.9	-16.5

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,111 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	26.9	26.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	69.3	8.4
– Net Position:	24,671	-42,668	17,997
– Gross Longs:	34,591	27,108	26,423
– Gross Shorts:	9,920	69,776	8,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	69.0	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-6.0	13.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 75,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,309 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	32.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	65.5	3.4
– Net Position:	75,886	-85,499	9,613
– Gross Longs:	107,483	83,511	18,455
– Gross Shorts:	31,597	169,010	8,842
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.6	1.4	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.8	-27.9	-9.1

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,712 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	29.3	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	66.2	5.3
– Net Position:	17,908	-23,112	5,204
– Gross Longs:	26,148	18,426	8,545
– Gross Shorts:	8,240	41,538	3,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	46.9	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-0.2	2.4

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,915 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	40.6	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	31.5	9.5
– Net Position:	-2,497	1,563	934
– Gross Longs:	6,252	7,007	2,578
– Gross Shorts:	8,749	5,444	1,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.4	27.2	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	7.3	-2.9

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,456 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	64.6	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.1	93.2	0.2
– Net Position:	11,106	-11,521	415
– Gross Longs:	12,746	26,059	498
– Gross Shorts:	1,640	37,580	83
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	6.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.2	15.6	90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	0.9	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

24 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators up 2-Year and 5-Year Bonds bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

All the US bond markets continue to have overall negative speculator net positions at the moment, illustrating the negative views on the outlook for bond market prices. Speculators betting against bond market prices implies a viewpoint that interest rates will go higher (as prices fall, the interest rates of that market increases and vice versa).

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (41,775 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (11,629 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (11,594 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-330,187 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-66,885 contracts), the Fed Funds (-54,824 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-25,053 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-15,470 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-5,820 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The long U.S. Treasury Bond leads Bond Market price performance.

Over the past week, the U.S. Treasury Bond was the biggest gainer in the US Bond Markets with a 1.19% rise. The 10-Year Note came in second with a 0.44% increase while the Five-Year Bond was higher by 0.18%.

The 1-Month SOFR saw an uptick by 0.03%, and the 3-Month SOFR was higher by just a tick of 0.01%.

On the downside, the Fed Funds saw a -0.01% decrease while the Two-Year Bond also was a couple of ticks lower by -0.02%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (77 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (76 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 3-Months (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (22 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (49.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (77.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (76.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (35.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (43.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (77.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (83.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (21.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (23.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (75.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (53.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (14.7 percent)

2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-41.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-41 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-3.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (20.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-41.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-49.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (10.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-14.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-14.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-40.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-24.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -96,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -54,824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,000 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	67.1	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	62.4	1.8
– Net Position:	-96,824	89,193	7,631
– Gross Longs:	208,071	1,279,497	42,560
– Gross Shorts:	304,895	1,190,304	34,929
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	57.6	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	4.2	-13.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,473,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -330,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,143,587 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	63.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	52.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-1,473,774	1,474,436	-662
– Gross Longs:	1,674,583	8,525,818	37,330
– Gross Shorts:	3,148,357	7,051,382	37,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.5	40.7	-2.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -139,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 11,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,631 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	65.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	55.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-139,037	139,261	-224
– Gross Longs:	297,504	932,468	192
– Gross Shorts:	436,541	793,207	416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	46.5	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	14.2	-0.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,560,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 41,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602,612 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	48.3	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,560,837	1,498,142	62,695
– Gross Longs:	487,295	3,881,287	226,572
– Gross Shorts:	2,048,132	2,383,145	163,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	81.4	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.0	-16.1	-6.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,350,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 11,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,362,145 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	77.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	57.8	6.8
– Net Position:	-1,350,516	1,382,881	-32,365
– Gross Longs:	694,412	5,418,755	438,786
– Gross Shorts:	2,044,928	4,035,874	471,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	30.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-6.9	-32.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -848,052 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -66,885 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -781,167 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	74.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	61.4	6.3
– Net Position:	-848,052	786,275	61,777
– Gross Longs:	566,207	4,366,133	430,774
– Gross Shorts:	1,414,259	3,579,858	368,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	71.3	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	-1.8	18.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -114,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -25,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,901 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	70.2	13.1
– Net Position:	-114,954	235,846	-120,892
– Gross Longs:	263,782	2,071,478	221,012
– Gross Shorts:	378,736	1,835,632	341,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.1	37.4	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-8.8	-10.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -178,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -172,854 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	76.0	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	70.0	8.9
– Net Position:	-178,674	111,298	67,376
– Gross Longs:	182,942	1,427,336	234,918
– Gross Shorts:	361,616	1,316,038	167,542
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	74.6	27.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.6	39.9	-25.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -254,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -15,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,994 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	82.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	71.9	8.0
– Net Position:	-254,464	264,146	-9,682
– Gross Longs:	139,936	2,087,342	192,061
– Gross Shorts:	394,400	1,823,196	201,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	43.3	5.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	1.1	-8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

24 May

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Heating Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude & Heating Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets with a modest weekly rise was WTI Crude (2,703 contracts) with Heating Oil (2,635 contracts) and the Bloomberg Index (315 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-15,890 contracts), Brent Oil (-6,932 contracts) and with Gasoline (-3,596 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Energy Markets price performance lower across the board.

The Energy Markets saw lower prices across the board with all six of the markets we cover seeing weekly declines. The lowest weekly decline for the past five days was by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which fell by -1.94%. Natural Gas came in second with a -3.61% decline, and Gasoline fell by almost -4% with a -3.96% shortfall.

Heating Oil was next with a -5.42% decrease on the week, while WTI Crude Oil dropped by -6.78%. Brent Oil saw the biggest decline on the week with a -7.25% drop.

All the Energy Markets have seen higher percentages over the past 30 days, with Gasoline the highest at a 16.68% increase over the past 30 days.

Natural Gas is the only market with a decline over the past 90 days as it has fallen by -16.98%. Gasoline prices are up 78.39% over the past 90 days. Heating Oil, WTI Crude Oil, and Brent Oil are all higher by over 50% in these past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil

On the downside, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.3 percent) and Natural Gas (9.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was WTI Crude (42.8 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (42.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (41.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (55.4 percent)
Natural Gas (9.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (19.3 percent)
Gasoline (43.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (47.4 percent)
Heating Oil (50.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (47.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (0.0 percent)

Brent Oil tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (8.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets and was the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gasoline (-9.6 percent) and WTI Crude (-9.5 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Natural Gas (-5.3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-9.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-14.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (8.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (25.4 percent)
Natural Gas (-5.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-5.7 percent)
Gasoline (-9.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-15.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-4.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-9.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-100.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 172,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 2,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,877 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	45.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	55.0	2.5
– Net Position:	172,580	-200,409	27,829
– Gross Longs:	384,294	900,625	78,845
– Gross Shorts:	211,714	1,101,034	51,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	55.5	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	9.2	-1.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -6,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,034 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	34.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	25.6	2.4
– Net Position:	-24,966	20,829	4,137
– Gross Longs:	59,813	83,284	9,907
– Gross Shorts:	84,779	62,455	5,770
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	51.1	95.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-10.1	5.7

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -192,196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -15,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -176,306 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	36.2	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	25.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-192,196	174,224	17,972
– Gross Longs:	230,391	578,821	59,864
– Gross Shorts:	422,587	404,597	41,892
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	93.3	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	8.0	-9.9

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,525 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.4	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	67.5	4.3
– Net Position:	50,929	-64,242	13,313
– Gross Longs:	80,150	151,612	27,203
– Gross Shorts:	29,221	215,854	13,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	47.6	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	9.8	-5.1

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,008 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	46.3	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	58.6	9.4
– Net Position:	5,643	-31,776	26,133
– Gross Longs:	41,735	118,940	50,371
– Gross Shorts:	36,092	150,716	24,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.9	36.3	89.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	-1.5	13.1

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -76,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,730 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.5	55.7	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.8	24.6	0.0
– Net Position:	-76,415	75,902	513
– Gross Longs:	106,216	135,902	538
– Gross Shorts:	182,631	60,000	25
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1	21.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.3	99.7	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	1.2	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

24 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (18,509 contracts) with Wheat (14,684 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,088 contracts) and Soybean Oil (5 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-25,435 contracts) with Soybeans (-11,764 contracts), Cotton (-9,919 contracts), Coffee (-5,099 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,863 contracts), Cocoa (-2,507 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,616 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Performance Leaders led by Coffee

Coffee led the Soft Commodities price performances this week in an overall down week for most of the Soft Commodities markets. Coffee rose by over 2% with a 2.14% gain and was followed by Soybeans, which was virtually unchanged but had a 0.21% uptick.

On the downside, Soybean Oil dipped by -0.67%, followed by Sugar, which was lower by -0.68%, and by Corn, which declined by -0.91%.

Next, Soybean Oil fell by more than -2% with a -2.21% decline, followed by Wheat, which fell by -2.40%, and Lean Hogs, which dropped by -2.85%. Cocoa was lower by over -5% with a -5.26% shortfall, while Cotton was lower by -5.76% over the past five days.

The biggest negative gainer on the week was Live Cattle, which dropped by almost 7% with a -6.94% decrease for the past 5 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Wheat (99 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (94 percent), Cotton (94 percent) and Soybeans (91 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Lean Hogs (21 percent), Sugar (34 percent) and Coffee (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (84.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (88.4 percent)
Sugar (33.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (30.3 percent)
Coffee (39.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (44.3 percent)
Soybeans (90.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (93.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (94.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (94.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.5 percent)
Live Cattle (67.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (71.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (94.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (100.0 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.5 percent)
Wheat (99.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (87.2 percent)

Cotton & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (19 percent) and Soybean Meal (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (16 percent), Corn (9 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-13 percent), Coffee (-6 percent) and Sugar (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.6 percent)
Sugar (-1.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Coffee (-5.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-13.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (2.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-38.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-33.0 percent)
Cotton (18.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (32.1 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.7 percent)
Wheat (15.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 358,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -25,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 383,537 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	40.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	55.5	10.6
– Net Position:	358,102	-288,625	-69,477
– Gross Longs:	569,689	757,342	129,874
– Gross Shorts:	211,587	1,045,967	199,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.9	13.4	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-8.4	-9.9

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 18,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,418 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	50.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	42.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-78,909	71,445	7,464
– Gross Longs:	240,256	487,110	86,264
– Gross Shorts:	319,165	415,665	78,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	66.3	41.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	0.7	4.9

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,059 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.6	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	46.7	4.6
– Net Position:	15,960	-15,381	-579
– Gross Longs:	53,799	73,346	8,137
– Gross Shorts:	37,839	88,727	8,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	63.3	5.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.1	-9.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 212,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,002 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	46.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	64.8	7.9
– Net Position:	212,238	-183,266	-28,972
– Gross Longs:	288,551	479,743	52,144
– Gross Shorts:	76,313	663,009	81,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	10.7	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-1.4	7.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 158,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 5 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 158,102 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	44.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	68.9	4.0
– Net Position:	158,107	-172,756	14,649
– Gross Longs:	209,661	320,353	43,107
– Gross Shorts:	51,554	493,109	28,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.5	4.0	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-3.3	-6.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 159,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 11,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,653 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	39.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	69.1	4.4
– Net Position:	159,741	-183,762	24,021
– Gross Longs:	208,033	245,006	51,157
– Gross Shorts:	48,292	428,768	27,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	77.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-18.8	21.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 90,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -3,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,505 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.9	28.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	50.2	11.7
– Net Position:	90,889	-78,298	-12,591
– Gross Longs:	156,500	104,747	29,883
– Gross Shorts:	65,611	183,045	42,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.5	26.9	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	11.5	12.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -4,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,334 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	39.8	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	36.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-7,197	10,228	-3,031
– Gross Longs:	89,006	129,862	23,175
– Gross Shorts:	96,203	119,634	26,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	81.5	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.5	38.5	20.1

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -9,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,389 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	33.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	65.1	2.5
– Net Position:	92,470	-103,545	11,075
– Gross Longs:	137,278	110,947	19,326
– Gross Shorts:	44,808	214,492	8,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.1	7.3	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-18.2	14.5

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,981 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	52.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	45.0	5.2
– Net Position:	-15,488	14,704	784
– Gross Longs:	40,134	101,849	10,773
– Gross Shorts:	55,622	87,145	9,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	93.4	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.6	8.7

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 14,684 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,421 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	33.1	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	33.5	7.2
– Net Position:	263	-1,992	1,729
– Gross Longs:	143,267	157,233	36,126
– Gross Shorts:	143,004	159,225	34,397
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.5	0.9	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-17.0	3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

22 May

The situation in the Middle East remains uncertain

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, US stock indices posted gains after a volatile session. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.55%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.17%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.09%. The main driver of optimism was the third consecutive day of declining oil prices amid reports of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. Diplomatic signals indicating a narrowing of differences and a potential resolution of the conflict supported the broader market, allowing the utilities, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors to lead gains despite underperformance in the energy segment. Market pressure came from a more than 7% drop in Walmart shares after the retailer warned of business risks associated with persistently high fuel costs.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.53%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.39%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.42%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.11%. Market sentiment was also restrained by weak macroeconomic data: preliminary Eurozone PMI indices reflected a noticeable slowdown in private‑sector activity due to the consequences of the conflict.

WTI crude‑oil prices reversed downward, losing more than 2% after a morning gain of 3%, reflecting heightened market volatility amid diplomatic progress in resolving the conflict with Iran. Investor optimism was supported by a statement from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about encouraging signs of a possible agreement and reports of increased involvement from Pakistani mediators. In addition, Tehran’s willingness to limit exports of weapons‑grade uranium is seen as a constructive step toward meeting key US demands, reducing the risk of further escalation. Despite the current correction, oil prices remain nearly 50% above pre‑war levels, driven by a persistent structural supply deficit in the global market.

The US natural‑gas prices fell below $3.0 per MMBtu, retreating from two‑month highs. The main driver of the decline was a significant oversupply relative to current demand, confirmed by official statistics. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week ending May 15, 2026, US energy companies injected 101 billion cubic feet of gas into underground storage – well above analyst expectations (95 bcf) and the five‑year seasonal average (92 bcf). As a result, total gas inventories strengthened their surplus status ahead of the summer season.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 3.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 1.21%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 1.03%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) rose by 1.47%.

The Australian stock market continued its upward momentum. A key support factor was speculation about monetary policy: the unexpected drop in employment in April (-18.6 thousand jobs) led investors to believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia may pause its rate‑hike cycle after three rounds of tightening this year. However, buying activity remains cautious ahead of next week’s release of the April Consumer Price Index. In March, inflation in Australia jumped to 4.6% year‑over‑year – the highest level since September 2023 – driven by global oil price increases due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,445.72 +12.75 (+0.17%)

Dow Jones (US30) 50,285.66 +276.31 (+0.55%)

DAX (DE40) 24,606.77 −130.47 (−0.53%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,443.47 +11.13 (+0.11%)

USD Index 99.20 +0.11 (+0.21%)

News feed for: 2026.05.22

New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3) – NZD (MED)
Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (HIGH)
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
German GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 May

USD/JPY: Second Consecutive Week Closes Higher

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.04 at the end of the week, marking the yen’s second consecutive weekly decline. The Japanese currency came under pressure after weaker inflation data reduced expectations of imminent Bank of Japan policy tightening.

Core inflation in Japan slowed to 1.4% in April, down from 1.8% the previous month – the lowest level in four years. Moreover, the indicator has remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the third consecutive month.

At its April meeting, the BOJ sharply raised its core inflation forecast for the current year to 2.8%, up from 1.9%. The regulator attributed this revision to high oil prices amid the Middle East conflict and the continued pass-through of business costs to consumers.

Additional market attention has been drawn to reports that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering an additional budget to compensate for rising energy prices.

At the same time, markets continue to monitor the risk of fresh foreign exchange interventions. The yen remains near the 160-per-dollar level — the level that triggered Japanese authorities’ interventions in late April and early May.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 158.68 and is moving higher towards 160.09. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible pullback to 158.66, with scope for a further decline towards 157.00. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

USD/JPY is set to close its second consecutive week higher as the yen remains under pressure from softer-than-expected Japanese inflation data. Core inflation slowed to a four-year low of 1.4%, falling further below the BOJ’s 2% target and dampening expectations for near-term policy tightening. This contrasts with the BOJ’s upgraded inflation forecast of 2.8%, driven by energy costs related to the Middle East conflict. With the pair hovering near the critical 160 level, where Japanese authorities intervened in late April and early May, markets remain on high alert for potential intervention. Prime Minister Takaichi’s consideration of an additional budget to address energy prices adds another layer of complexity. Technically, further upside towards 160.09 appears likely in the near term.

Conclusion

GBP/USD stabilised following weaker-than-expected UK inflation data, easing concerns about aggressive Bank of England rate hikes. However, the pound faces headwinds from a soft labour market and rising oil prices, suggesting that any recovery may be short-lived. Technical indicators point to a near-term correction before a potential continuation of the broader trend.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 May

Australia’s labor‑market data disappoint. New Zealand’s trade balance shows a record surplus

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.31%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.08%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.66%. After Wednesday’s close, the US market maintained a positive tone thanks to strong earnings from Nvidia. Nvidia’s quarterly revenue exceeded $81 billion, beating market expectations and confirming sustained high demand for artificial‑intelligence infrastructure. However, the revenue outlook for the July quarter – around $91 billion – was less optimistic than some analysts expected, slightly cooling investor enthusiasm. Additional market support came from signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz after reports that three supertankers managed to leave the region with full oil cargoes.

The minutes of the April meeting of the FOMC showed that most Federal Reserve officials remain concerned about persistently high inflation and believe that further monetary tightening may become necessary if price growth continues to exceed the 2% target. Markets paid particular attention to the shift in tone within the Committee: many participants supported removing language implying a bias toward future policy easing – interpreted as an additional hawkish signal. This reflects growing concern that inflationary pressure, especially related to rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, may prove more persistent than previously expected.

Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.70%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.99%.

On Wednesday, silver prices broke above $76 per ounce, reacting to positive signals about a potential agreement between the US and Iran. The decline in the geopolitical premium in oil prices eased concerns about long‑term inflationary pressure, reducing expectations of aggressive monetary tightening.
WTI crude‑oil futures fell sharply by more than 5%, dropping below the psychological level of $100 per barrel. The main driver of the decline was optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump about the final stage of negotiations with Iran, which could lead to a rapid end to the conflict and the lifting of the maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Additional stabilization signals came from satellite data showing three supertankers passing through the strait, indicating a potential easing of logistical restrictions.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.23%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down 0.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped 1.26%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar fell to 0.71 USD, fully losing the gains of the previous session. The main disappointment for AUD buyers came from fresh Australian labor‑market data. Seasonally adjusted unemployment unexpectedly jumped to 4.5% in April, up from 4.3% in March and above analyst expectations – the highest level since November 2021. The reason was a sharp drop in employment: jobs fell by 18,600 (to 14.74 million), while the market expected an increase of 17,500. This first decline in employment in five months undermined investor confidence that the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise the cash rate to 4.6% at the June meeting.

The New Zealand dollar is holding near 0.586 USD, balancing between strong domestic data and unpredictable rhetoric from the White House. A powerful domestic driver came from fresh Stats NZ data: New Zealand’s trade surplus in April 2026 surged to an all‑time record of 1.92 billion NZD (prediction: 980 million). Exports rose 12% to 8.6 billion, driven by strong dairy, beef, and aluminum sales to the US and EU, while imports increased only 3.4% (to 6.7 billion), indicating weak domestic demand. Markets now price in a 30% probability of a rate hike at the end of May and a 90% probability of tightening in July, as the prolonged fuel crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to accelerate imported inflation.

At its May 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 5.25%, marking the first tightening since April 2024. The decision, accompanied by increases in deposit rates to 4.75% and lending rates to 6.0%, was driven by the need to support the national currency, which has fallen 2.2% since late April to 17,700 rupiah per dollar, and to curb imported‑inflation risks.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,432.97 +79.36 (+1.08%)

Dow Jones (US30) 50,009.35 +645.47 (+1.31%)

DAX (DE40) 24,737.24 +336.59 (+1.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,432.34 +101.79 (+0.99%)

USD Index 99.12 -0.21 (-0.21%)

News feed for: 2026.05.21

New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3) – NZD (MED)
Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (HIGH)
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Building Permit (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 May

GBP/USD Recovers Amid UK Inflation Data: Positive Signals Emerge

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD was trading at 1.3428 on Thursday, following a period of volatility after the release of UK inflation data, which came in weaker than expected despite geopolitical tensions over Iran and rising oil prices.

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.8% in April, down from 3.3% in March, while the market had anticipated a reading of 3%.

The market interpreted these figures as a signal that the Bank of England may not need to raise interest rates aggressively in the near term. This has reduced expectations of further tightening and weighed on the pound.

Weak labour market data in the UK added to the negative sentiment. Recent statistics indicated a slowdown in hiring and a decline in new vacancies, reflecting the impact of the broader economic environment.

It is important to note that the effect of slower inflation may be temporary. Since the onset of the Iran conflict, global oil prices have increased by approximately 50%, and this rise is likely to feed into the UK economy and consumer prices over time.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the pair is trading within a broad consolidation range above 1.3388, currently extending up to 1.3490. A move lower towards 1.3380 is likely. After this, the pair may consolidate, with potential to move to 1.3515 on the upside or decline towards 1.3200 on the downside. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with the signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3434, currently extending up to 1.3464. A move lower towards 1.3333 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 May

The People’s Bank of China keeps lending rates unchanged. The Canadian dollar weakens amid falling inflation

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, US stock indices continued to decline amid the ongoing sell‑off in US Treasury bonds and rising investor concerns about inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.67%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.67%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.61%. Pressure on the market intensified due to rising bond yields, as investors fear that high energy prices may force the Federal Reserve to maintain tight monetary policy for longer.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.38 per US dollar amid a decline in core inflation in Canada, which strengthened expectations that the Bank of Canada will continue to take a cautious approach and will not respond to rising energy prices with policy tightening. Despite headline inflation accelerating to 2.8% in April due to higher gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict, the key core inflation indicators monitored by the regulator fell more than expected, reaching their lowest levels in the past five years. This reinforced the market’s view that inflationary pressure outside the energy sector remains limited.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.07%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.48%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.07%.

WTI oil prices fell to around 103 dollars per barrel, partially pulling back after the recent rally. Pressure on prices emerged after US President Trump stated that he had canceled a planned military strike on Iran following requests from Gulf states and amid signs of a possible return to negotiations. Previously, oil had been supported by more than a week of gains driven by stalled US-Iran talks and the effective restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for global oil trade. An additional factor was a new US authorization allowing the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers, which added expectations of increased short‑term supply to the market.

Palladium prices (XPD) stabilized near 1,400 dollars per ounce, pausing their decline after reaching a seven‑week low. The market was supported by easing pressure on the precious metals sector after signs of possible progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. This somewhat reduced concerns about further increases in energy prices and the risk of a prolonged period of high interest rates. At the same time, the fundamental situation in the palladium market remains relatively tight. Concerns about limited supply from key producers continue to support prices. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan expects that palladium prices will rise to 1,600 dollars per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.44%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 0.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 1.17%.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan strengthened slightly to around 6.81 per dollar, partially recovering after the previous session’s decline. The Chinese currency was supported by the decision of the People’s Bank of China to keep key lending rates unchanged: the one‑year LPR remained at 3.0%, and the five‑year LPR stayed at 3.5%. This marks the twelfth consecutive month without changes, reflecting the cautious approach of Chinese authorities amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,353.61 −49.44 (−0.67%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,363.88 −322.24 (−0.65%)

DAX (DE40) 24,400.65 +92.73 (+0.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,330.55 +6.80 (+0.07%)

USD Index 99.31 +0.12 (+0.12%)

News feed for: 2026.05.20

China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (HIGH)
UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 May

EUR/USD Near Six-Week Low as Market Tensions Rise

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD slipped to 1.1598 on Wednesday, keeping the pair at its lowest level in six weeks. The US dollar is supported by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, which is increasing inflationary risks and raising expectations of potential Federal Reserve tightening.

US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could resume attacks on Iran within “two to three days” if Tehran does not accept the terms of a peace agreement. The ongoing conflict continues to restrict navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher and increasing global inflationary pressures.

Amid this backdrop, market expectations of a Fed rate cut this year have largely evaporated. Investors are increasingly anticipating another rate hike before the end of 2026.

Attention was also drawn to comments from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Anna Paulson. She expressed support for maintaining current interest rates and noted that any reduction in borrowing costs would likely only be feasible with a sustained slowdown in inflation.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 EUR/USD chart, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1600, with potential downside towards 1.1550. A corrective rebound to 1.1600 (testing from below) is possible, followed by a further decline towards 1.1460. The MACD indicator confirms this bearish scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued downside momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1614 and is now moving lower towards 1.1550. A rebound to 1.1615 may follow before a further decline towards 1.1460. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, supporting the US dollar. Technical indicators suggest further downside is likely, although short-term corrective moves are possible. Market focus will remain on US-Iran developments and upcoming US economic data for guidance.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.