InvestMacro

The US stock indices closed with a powerful surge, fully offsetting the losses of the previous session and recording one of the best days of the year. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.86%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.75%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up by 3.29%. The main driver of the explosive rally on Wall Street was the unexpected easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. During the day, US President Donald Trump shifted from warlike rhetoric to a conciliatory tone: after morning threats to deliver “very tough strikes tonight” and take control of Iran’s oil infrastructure (including Kharg Island), by the evening he announced on the social network Truth Social that the planned bombings were canceled. Trump stated that during high‑level negotiations a “big agreement” to end the war had been reached, and that it had been fundamentally approved by Iran, Israel, and key Arab allies.

An additional powerful boost to the market came from the technology sector, where preparations for the historic IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, scheduled for Friday, June 12 (the expected company valuation is $1.75-1.77 trillion), were in full swing.

On the macroeconomic front, the situation remained mixed. Fresh data on the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May indicated an acceleration in wholesale price growth, confirming the persistence of high inflation due to the recent commodity shock. This data strengthened market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) will be forced to raise interest rates at least one more time before the end of 2026 (traders consider December the most likely moment).
European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.48%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.81%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session higher by 0.48%. The central bank of Denmark (Danmarks Nationalbank) raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points as expected – to 1.85%. The current account rate, deposit certificates, and discount rate were fixed at this level, while the lending rate increased to 2.00%. The Danish regulator took this step immediately after a similar decision by the European Central Bank earlier the same day. The moves by Frankfurt and Copenhagen were driven by the need to combat inflation risks caused by the new escalation of the Middle East conflict and shocks in the energy market.

Platinum prices (XPT) showed a powerful rebound, soaring more than 4% and breaking above $1,730 per troy ounce. This sharp rise allowed the market to move away from the six‑month low recorded during the recent sell‑off.

Platinum’s dynamics fully matched the broad rally in the precious metals sector triggered by the large‑scale de‑escalation of geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, caution persists in the market. Experts emphasize that even in the event of diplomatic success, it will take considerable time to fully restore supply chains and oil export volumes. At the same time, platinum continues to be supported by a severe physical deficit in the long term. According to WPIC’s outlook, in 2026 the market will face a shortage of the metal for the fourth consecutive year.

Oil WTI prices stabilized around $90 per barrel, balancing between threats and diplomacy. On one hand, Donald Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s terminal on Kharg Island, although he ruled out a full‑scale war. On the other hand, the UAE and Iran held rare direct talks, restoring hope for de‑escalation. However, the decline in prices is limited by severe depletion of global inventories: reserves in the US continue to fall sharply, and fuel stocks in Singapore have plunged to their lowest level since 2013, confirming shortages at key hubs.
The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell more than 3% – below $3.10 per MMBtu, hitting a two‑week low. The trigger was the EIA report: underground storage inventories rose by 108 billion cubic feet for the week, exceeding the prediction of 101 billion.

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.65%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.23%. On Friday, the Chinese stock market showed a confident recovery. The positive dynamics in China followed the general rally across Asian markets. The main driver of optimism was Donald Trump’s statement that a peace agreement on the Middle East could be signed as early as this weekend. Investors expect that de‑escalation will allow safe commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to be restored in the shortest possible time. Despite Friday’s rebound, both Chinese indices recorded weekly declines due to high volatility.

The US stock indices plunged to multi‑week lows. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.87%, the S&P 500 (US500) declined 1.62%, and the tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 1.98% lower. The main trigger for the panic sell‑off was a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions around Iran after President Donald Trump threatened Tehran with a harsh military response for dragging out negotiations. This instantly brought fears of prolonged escalation back to the markets and sparked another jump in oil prices.

The technology sector took an additional hit as investors aggressively locked in profits in semiconductor and AI‑giant stocks amid concerns of overheated valuations. Sentiment was further pressured by growing caution ahead of the historic SpaceX IPO scheduled for this Friday (June 12), with funds actively freeing up liquidity for the mega‑listing valued at $1.77 trillion. As a result, sector leaders closed deep in the red: Broadcom plunged 5.1%, AMD 4.9%, Micron Technology 4.7%, and market favorite Nvidia lost 3.7%. Tesla shares dropped 3.8%, and the wave of selling spread into the heavy industrial sector as well.

On Wednesday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) posted a moderate gain against its US counterpart, stabilizing near 1.39 per USD. The symbolic strengthening of the loonie was driven by the Bank of Canada (BoC), which, as expected, kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem noted that economic uncertainty remains extremely high due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the threat of new US tariffs as part of the CUSMA review. Despite the BoC’s hawkish tone and rising market bets on a potential 25‑bp rate hike in December, the Canadian dollar still failed to meaningfully distance itself from its six‑month lows.

European indices mostly declined yesterday. By the close, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.97%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) ended 0.51% lower, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) slipped 0.18%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the session 0.27% higher. The main drag was the renewed wave of geopolitical tension in the Middle East following US military strikes on targets in Iran. In addition, market participants adopted a wait‑and‑see stance ahead of Thursday’s key ECB meeting, where the regulator is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.

Global crude oil prices resumed strong growth, adding more than 2%. Brent prices surged toward $92 per barrel, while US WTI rose to $88-89. President Donald Trump issued a harsh warning to Tehran on social media, stating that Iran had delayed peace talks for too long and would now “have to pay for it.” The statement followed attacks by pro‑Iranian forces on infrastructure in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait – retaliation for recent US “self‑defense strikes” after the destruction of an American helicopter. Additional support for oil came from fresh EIA data showing US commercial crude inventories plunged by 7.228 million barrels last week – the seventh consecutive weekly decline and nearly double analysts’ expectations.

The US natural gas prices (Henry Hub) posted moderate gains, stabilizing around $3.19-3.20 per MMBtu. Futures were supported by updated weather expectations predicting a return of abnormally hot temperatures above seasonal norms in the second half of June, which will inevitably boost electricity demand and strain cooling systems. However, prices still remain well below the local highs reached earlier this month.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.89%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed 0.61% lower, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.64%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) rose 0.57%.

In Australia, consumer inflation expectations calculated by the Melbourne Institute held at 5.6%, unchanged from the previous month and remaining near three‑year highs. The current stabilization comes against the backdrop of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) tight monetary stance: three rate hikes since the start of the year have pushed borrowing costs to 4.35%, gradually cooling domestic demand and preventing secondary effects from energy‑market shocks.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.17%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.26%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower by 1.12%. The technology sector once again came under a wave of selling. Notably, the decline occurred despite a positive external backdrop in the form of falling global oil prices. The main reason for the negative close was that Monday’s rebound in semiconductor stocks completely faded, and investors returned to profit‑taking.

The sector ETF iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) lost more than 3% by the end of the session, giving back a significant portion of yesterday’s 6% gain. Investor nervousness in the chip sector intensified after the fund suffered its biggest drop in six years last Friday – a 10% plunge driven by concerns over overheating valuations of companies linked to artificial intelligence.

Mexico’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.94% from 4.45% the previous month, hitting a four‑month low and returning to the Bank of Mexico’s target range (3% ±1%). This was supported by expanded government subsidies and tax incentives on fuel, which successfully insulated the domestic energy sector from the global commodity shock triggered by the recent conflict in the Middle East. The return of headline inflation to the target corridor significantly eases pressure on the Bank of Mexico and strengthens market expectations of a possible resumption of interest‑rate cuts at upcoming meetings.

European indices mostly declined yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.74%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a 0.05% gain, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.27%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down by 1.41%.

Global oil prices (WTI) fell by roughly 3%, dropping below $86 per barrel. This marked the lowest price level since April 17 of this year. The main driver of the decline was the long‑awaited agreement between Israel and Iran to halt mutual attacks following the recent escalation. Strong pressure on oil prices also came from fundamental supply‑and‑demand factors. Fresh Chinese customs data showed a collapse in crude oil imports last month to 7.8 million barrels per day. This is China’s worst reading in eight years and nearly 4 million barrels per day below the average level of 2025.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.17%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.24%.

The offshore yuan (CNY) strengthened to around 6.77 per US dollar. Market participants actively analyzed fresh May inflation data from China, which reflected a deep divergence between the consumer and industrial sectors. Consumer inflation (CPI) in China rose by 1.2% year‑on‑year in May, slightly below the analyst consensus of 1.3%. In contrast, the industrial sector saw a powerful price rally: the Producer Price Index jumped to 3.9% year‑on‑year in May compared with 2.8% in April. This is the highest reading since July 2022, confirming a confident exit of China’s heavy industry from a prolonged period of deflation. Further pass‑through of these costs into final goods could hit domestic consumption even harder, although current consumer frugality is still restraining this negative scenario.

The Australian dollar held near a nine‑week low below 0.705 USD. Pressure on risk assets resumed after the fragile Middle East ceasefire came under threat due to new US strikes on Iran and accusations by President Donald Trump regarding the destruction of a helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. Another round of escalation triggered a spike in energy prices, intensifying global inflation concerns and raising the risk of a prolonged period of high interest rates worldwide. Domestically, the situation is worsened by a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment in June amid the ongoing rise in the cost of living and fuel prices. Under these conditions, market attention is focused on next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, where – despite inflationary pressure – monetary policy settings are expected to remain unchanged.

On Monday, the US stock indices showed mixed dynamics, with the technology sector beginning to actively recover after Friday’s devastating sell‑off. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.06%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 1.58%. The main driver of the rebound was the return of optimism regarding AI infrastructure and massive buying of cheaper semiconductor assets. Additional support for sentiment came from signs of de‑escalation in the Middle East: reports of halted mutual strikes between Iran and Israel, as well as Donald Trump’s statement about continued negotiations, allowed WTI oil prices to correct downward, losing their morning gains.

In the chipmaker sector, the leaders of the previous session’s decline moved to confident growth: Micron Technology shares jumped 9.9%, AMD rose 5.1%, Broadcom recovered part of its losses, rising 2.8%, and Nvidia gained 1.7%. Tesla shares also had a strong session, rising 4.6%.

European indices closed mixed. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.58%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.23%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.66%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session slightly higher at 0.05%. A positive driver for the stock market was the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions: Iran announced the end of its current military operation against Israel, and Tel Aviv paused its retaliatory strikes, allowing the US to resume mediation talks with Tehran. Against this backdrop, yields on European government bonds declined, supporting a rebound in industrial and cyclical stocks.

The oil market saw large‑scale intraday volatility. During Asian trading, futures for US light crude WTI surged to 95 dollars per barrel amid news that Iran’s missile strikes on Israel had disrupted a fragile ceasefire. However, by the end of the session, prices sharply corrected downward, falling to 91 dollars per barrel after Tehran’s official statement announcing the cessation of military operations against Israel. The market was further cooled by comments from US President Donald Trump, who reported progress in dialogue with Iran and the proximity of a new agreement. In addition to diplomatic de‑escalation, prices were pressured by fundamental supply‑and‑demand factors. OPEC+ ministers approved a planned increase in production quotas in July by 188,000 barrels per day, ignoring local geopolitical risks. At the same time, the market absorbed weak statistics from Asia: China sharply reduced imports of raw materials from abroad. Due to high prices and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the largest Asian consumer shifted to using its own strategic oil reserves, which significantly limited purchases on the spot market and eased pressure on global hydrocarbon supply.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down 1.59%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) did not trade yesterday.

The offshore yuan (CNY) exchange rate showed remarkable stability, holding near 6.78 per US dollar. The national currency was supported by strong fresh data. China’s export sector demonstrated phenomenal resilience: in May, export volume jumped 19.4% year‑over‑year, reaching a historic high of 376.8 billion dollars. On the other hand, China’s imports in May also surprised, soaring by 27.4% to 271.4 billion dollars, significantly exceeding analysts’ conservative expectations of around 25%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) managed to rise above 0.705 US dollars, but this local move did not help the currency break out of its two‑month low zone. The “aussie” received some upward momentum amid overall improvement in global sentiment following news that Iran and Israel had announced a halt to mutual strikes. However, this moderate optimism is fully offset by harsh domestic economic realities and the persistent strength of the US dollar. According to fresh data from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute published on Tuesday, Australia’s Consumer Confidence Index fell by 2.9% (or almost 3%) in June, dropping to 80.6 points. This marked the fourth decline in the indicator since the beginning of the year.

On Friday, the American stock market went through one of the harshest crashes in recent times due to a massive investor exodus from the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.66% (week-to-date -0.58%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 2.64% (week-to-date -2.62%). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 4.77% (week-to-date -4.42%).

The catalyst for the tech panic was a strong US labor market report (172,000 new jobs versus the expectation of 85,000), which pushed the yield on 10‑year Treasury bonds above 4.5%, and 30‑year yields above 5%, intensifying fears of long-term high Fed rates. The main blow fell on semiconductor manufacturers, where Broadcom’s restrained outlook triggered a chain reaction and capital outflow from AI infrastructure. Broadcom’s own shares fell by more than 7% (continuing Thursday’s double‑digit decline), Marvell Technology and Micron Technology shares plunged by 16% and 13% respectively, while giants Intel and AMD lost about 11% of their value.

Statistics Canada published a strong labor market report that temporarily dispelled recession fears. The unemployment rate in the country unexpectedly fell by 0.3 percentage points in May – to 6.6% (the lowest level since January), while analysts had expected it to remain at 6.9%. The Canadian economy demonstrated surprising resilience despite triple pressure: the restrictive monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, prolonged tariff wars with Washington, and high energy prices caused by the Middle Eastern crisis.

European indices closed mixed on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.75% (week-to-date -1.29%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.32% (week-to-date +0.58%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.38% (week-to-date +0.08%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.08% (week-to-date -0.40%).

European stock indices closed in the red, reacting to the prolonged standoff between the US and Iran and the inevitable tightening of policy by major central banks. The main driver of sell-offs in Europe was the strong US labor market report, which strengthened expectations of a Fed rate hike, as well as the May acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone to 3.2%, causing markets to price in an almost 100% probability of an ECB rate increase at the June 11 meeting. The situation was worsened by a technical revision of Eurozone GDP for the first quarter: the bloc’s economy contracted by 0.2% due to a drop in Ireland’s GDP amid volatility in multinational companies’ financial flows.

Prices for American light crude oil WTI fell another 3%, dropping to $90.3 per barrel. While earlier in the week the main trigger for the decline was purely geopolitical, by the end of the week investors’ focus shifted to fundamental economic indicators signaling a noticeable cooling of global demand for raw materials. But on Monday, prices for American light crude oil WTI rose by more than 3%, surpassing $93 per barrel and fully recovering the late‑week decline. A powerful trigger for the renewed rally was a new escalation in the Middle East: Iran launched a direct missile strike on Israeli territory and issued a harsh warning about its readiness to expand military actions in Lebanon. Although Israeli air defense systems intercepted all missiles and no casualties were reported, this attack put the already fragile ceasefire agreement at risk, effectively bringing diplomatic efforts to a deadlock.

On Monday, platinum (XPT/USD) prices collapsed to around $1,760 per ounce, hitting the lowest level since December 2025. The precious metal came under heavy pressure due to the sharp deterioration of the geopolitical situation over the weekend, when Iran launched missile strikes on Israel. This step jeopardized the fragile truce and worsened the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors fear that entrenched cost inflation, combined with the recent strong US labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls), will force the Fed and other central banks to keep interest rates at a strictly restrictive level, reducing the attractiveness of precious metals. Nevertheless, the large-scale collapse in platinum prices is being limited by strong fundamental factors on the physical market side. According to fresh outlooks from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), the global market will record a supply deficit in 2026 for the fourth consecutive year.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.31% (week-to-date +0.34%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 1.62% (week-to-date -0.50%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.15% (week-to-date -0.87%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.70% (week-to-date -0.97%). Asian stock markets were swept by a powerful wave of sell-offs triggered by Friday’s crash on Wall Street. The main epicenter of the decline was South Korea’s KOSPI Index, which plunged by 8.8%, showing one of the worst days in its history. The catalyst for the panic was a massive capital outflow from semiconductor giants and companies linked to AI infrastructure, which began after Broadcom’s restrained prognoses. Other key regional markets – Japan, Australia, China, and Hong Kong – also came under cross‑pressure from macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks, recording deep declines. An additional blow to trader sentiment came from the sharp escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.