By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.25%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.45%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower yesterday by 1.16%. The technology sector came under strong pressure due to a sell‑off in semiconductor stocks. Investors focused on risks in the field of artificial intelligence: despite Samsung’s impressive results, the report failed to meet the market’s elevated expectations, which triggered declines in Micron (-4.7%), AMD (-6.5%), and Intel (-9.7%). An additional negative factor was reports that the Chinese company DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip, which heightened concerns about future competition. Sentiment also deteriorated due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on tankers triggered a spike in oil prices, leading to higher Treasury yields and raising concerns about inflation.

In May 2026, the US trade deficit widened significantly, reaching 77.6 billion dollars compared with the revised April figure of 54.6 billion dollars. This result was the largest gap since March 2025 and was close to market expectations, which expected around 78.5 billion dollars. The sharp increase in the deficit was driven by simultaneous growth in imports and a decline in exports of goods and services. Analysts note that the current dynamics of foreign trade may negatively affect GDP figures in the second quarter, while uncertainty in trade policy persists amid ongoing annual trade reviews and tariff measures.

Data on Canada’s Ivey PMI for June 2026 confirm a slowdown in economic growth. The Index fell to 56.2 points from May’s 58.2, below analysts’ expectations of 59.1. This decline ended a three‑month series of index increases and marked its lowest reading since March of this year.

European indices closed mixed on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.37%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.51%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.22%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 0.13%.

On Tuesday, oil prices surged sharply, rising 5% and reaching 72 dollars per barrel for WTI. The main catalyst for the price spike was the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, where an attack occurred on three tankers, including a Qatari LNG carrier, once again threatening the security of a key energy corridor and raising concerns about supply disruptions. In response to the escalation, the US Treasury announced the revocation of a general license that just weeks earlier had temporarily allowed the sale of Iranian oil. This decision, made less than three weeks after the easing was introduced, effectively ends the recent sanctions exemptions.

On Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.12%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.51%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.31%.

The New Zealand dollar strengthened to 0.571 USD after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly raised the base rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. This decision became the first step toward monetary tightening in more than three years, highlighting the regulator’s determination to contain inflation without creating excessive pressure on economic activity. Markets reacted optimistically to the news, as the bank provided clear signals of a likely continuation of the rate‑hike cycle this year. At present, most economists expect at least one or two additional increases, and the probability of a similar move in October is already almost fully priced in.

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar was trading near 0.694 USD, holding near its three‑month lows. Pressure on the Australian currency is driven by a sharp deterioration in global risk appetite amid the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Investors are massively shifting capital into the US dollar as a “safe haven,” especially after Washington carried out new strikes on Iran and revoked permission for Iranian oil exports, which once again triggered concerns about energy shortages and inflation risks. The deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that current oil price spikes negatively affect consumer and business confidence, but emphasized the overall resilience of the national economy.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan strengthened to 6.79 per dollar, beginning a recovery after recent declines. The main driver of optimism was the policy of the People’s Bank of China, which set the daily fixing at 6.8077 – only 59 points below analysts’ outlooks. Such a minimal gap between the official rate and market estimates indicates the regulator’s intention to actively curb the weakening of the national currency, which became a signal of increased state support for the yuan.

On Monday, US stock indices closed higher, supported by renewed interest in the technology sector and companies linked to artificial intelligence. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.72%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 1.12%. Market leaders were semiconductor manufacturers and major tech companies. The sector was supported by news of expanded partnership between Broadcom and Apple, as well as optimistic statements from Hon Hai Precision Industry regarding demand for AI technologies. Despite the fact that most stocks within the S&P 500 Index declined, the rise of heavyweight tech companies allowed the market to start the week on a positive note. Economic data published that day confirmed that the US services sector remains in expansion territory (PMI at 51.2), although growth has slightly slowed and companies continue hiring amid some easing of price pressure. Investors maintain cautious optimism ahead of Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which will help clarify the future trajectory of monetary policy as the regulator balances inflation risks and labor‑market dynamics.

European indices closed higher on Monday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.15% and updated its all‑time high. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.33%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.85%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 0.26%. Investor optimism was driven by expectations of strong quarterly reports from technology companies and falling oil prices. A significant event of the day was the German cabinet’s approval of the 2027 budget draft. The document proposes a sharp increase in government spending to 555.4 billion euros, with particular emphasis on defense: military expenditures are planned to rise to 109.7 billion euros, one‑third higher than this year’s levels. This decision aims to fulfill NATO commitments and strengthen the country’s sovereignty.

On Monday, WTI crude oil prices traded near 69 dollars per barrel, remaining at their lowest levels since late February. Pressure on prices intensified after OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day next month, confirming a course toward gradually expanding supply. The physical market also contributes to lower prices: exports from Saudi Arabia are approaching pre‑war volumes, and the United Arab Emirates have fully restored their maritime shipments.

Platinum prices (XPT) traded near 1,630 dollars per ounce, maintaining a sideways trend around the lowest levels since November 2025. The main pressure on the metal continues to come from the strengthening US dollar, although the decline in prices is limited by signs of cooling in the US labor market, which forces investors to reassess expectations regarding the pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Fundamentally, the platinum market remains structurally tight despite current price volatility. Production at South African mines continues to face disruptions due to electricity supply issues, and efforts to expand output in Russia have not yet led to a significant reduction in the structural deficit or an increase in limited above‑ground inventories.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.14%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.15%. On Tuesday, Chinese indices traded in the red. Market sentiment deteriorated noticeably after the World Bank published its economic expectation for China, predicting a slowdown in growth to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. The main reasons for this revision, according to experts, are the prolonged downturn in the real estate sector and subdued consumer demand. Despite the negative dynamics, Beijing and Hong Kong continue implementing initiatives to strengthen the city’s position as a leading offshore center for yuan operations, including the development of bond‑trading instruments and expansion of currency operations.

On Friday, US indices were not traded due to a public holiday in the United States. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 2.12%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 2.33%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 1.00% over five trading days.

This week, market attention in the US will be focused on the release of the minutes from the June meeting of the Federal Reserve (June 16-17, 2026), at which the regulator under its new chair Kevin Warsh kept the interest rate at 3.5-3.75%. Investors will look for details of discussions on future tightening, considering the committee’s hawkish signal about readiness for further rate hikes before year‑end to combat inflationary pressure. In addition, the macroeconomic calendar includes important indicators of economic conditions. The ISM services PMI is expected to show sector resilience, and existing home sales may reach their highest level since the beginning of the year. A significant widening of the trade deficit to 78.8 billion dollars is also expected amid rising imports and declining exports. The market will also pay attention to consumer credit data and inflation expectations, which will complement the overall picture of economic slowdown amid persistent high inflation.

The Canadian dollar continues to trade near yearly lows, holding around 1.42 USD. The main factor pressuring the national currency remains the combination of unfavorable conditions in energy markets and high uncertainty in trade relations with the US. Despite the general weakening of the US dollar after the release of weak US nonfarm payrolls data, the Canadian dollar could not fully benefit from this, as falling global oil prices negatively affected the country’s trade balance, reinforcing expectations of dovish policy from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

The Mexican peso at the beginning of July remains near 17.5 per dollar, balancing under the influence of conflicting factors. On one hand, the weakening of the US dollar amid weak June labor market statistics and correction in energy prices supports the national currency, reducing inflation risks. On the other hand, significant pressure comes from growing uncertainty surrounding North American trade relations, caused by the US administration’s decision not to extend the USMCA agreement in its current form.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.78% (weekly +4.27%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.39% (weekly +1.54%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.92% (weekly +2.37%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 0.25% (weekly +1.63%).

The European agenda for the current week is focused on central bank signals and industrial sector recovery. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the minutes of its June meeting, at which the regulator decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. Investors will analyze these details to assess the ECB’s further plans for monetary policy normalization amid slowing inflation. The macroeconomic calendar of Germany and other Eurozone countries shows cautious signs of recovery: German industrial production is expected to grow for the second consecutive month, and manufacturing orders are expected to begin recovering. At the same time, pressure on trade indicators persists: Germany’s trade surplus may shrink for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of geopolitical factors on exports.

Brent crude oil prices at the beginning of July 2026 stabilized around 70-72 dollars per barrel, showing a pronounced downward trend amid weakening geopolitical premium. The key factor behind this decline was progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, which led to the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz and normalization of hydrocarbon shipments. As logistics routes recovered, export volumes from Persian Gulf countries increased significantly: Saudi Arabia’s exports returned to 90% of pre‑war levels, and shipments from the UAE and Iraq also showed steady recovery. The rise in global supply, coinciding with signs of slowing demand from China, forced investors and major financial institutions such as UBS and Morgan Stanley to revise oil price expectations downward, removing concerns about large‑scale supply disruptions from market pricing.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.47% (weekly +0.19%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.57% (weekly -2.77%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.28% (weekly +1.73%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher by 1.37% (weekly +0.77%).

In the upcoming week, the economic landscape of the Asia‑Pacific region will be shaped by central bank decisions and key inflation indicators. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be in focus: despite broad expectations of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike to 2.5%, some analysts allow for the possibility of keeping the current level at 2.25% due to the impact of falling energy prices on overall inflation risks. China will publish inflation data, where consumer prices are expected to remain at 1.2% while producer inflation accelerates to 4.1%. In Japan, the market will focus on a wide range of data, including household spending, producer prices, and a 37.4% increase in machinery orders, which, amid pressure on the yen, makes these reports critically important for assessing the resilience of the Japanese economy.

On Thursday, US indices showed mixed dynamics, reflecting a deep split between the overheated technology sector and the “traditional” economy. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed at its opening price. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower by 0.80%. Semiconductor manufacturers (Micron, Applied Materials, AMD, SanDisk, Marvell) continued a second wave of sell‑offs amid doubts about the sustainability of AI‑company valuations, while the Dow Jones Index updated its historical high. The key driver of Dow’s growth was US employment data, which came in weaker than expected. This cooled market fears regarding immediate Fed tightening and offset negative sentiment.

European indices closed in the green on Thursday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.65%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.37%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 1.67%. On Thursday, the DAX 40 Index showed impressive growth, updating its historical high. The main driver of optimism was a large reform package from Friedrich Merz’s government, including tax relief for households and housing‑sector initiatives, which, combined with weakening hawkish expectations for Fed and ECB policy, created a favorable investment environment.

The US natural gas prices fell below 3.2 dollars per MMBtu amid oversupply and bearish dynamics in related energy markets. According to the EIA report, weekly storage injections reached 87 billion cubic feet, exceeding expectations and keeping inventories 6.2% above historical averages. Fundamental pressure is complemented by high production activity: output in the continental states remains near a record 110 billion cubic feet per day, while LNG export capacity is steadily loaded at 17.3 billion cubic feet per day.

Oil prices (WTI) fell by 2% to around 67 dollars per barrel, reaching pre‑war levels amid a sharp increase in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which exceeded 10 million barrels per day. The market is reacting to the recovery of export flows from the UAE and active releases of oil from reserves, which, along with one‑off sales by Saudi Arabia, form a persistent oversupply. Meanwhile, US domestic oil inventories have reached their lowest level since March 2025, reflecting the consequences of a twelve‑week period of continuous declines.

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.47%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 3.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.76%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher yesterday by 0.02%. Market optimism was driven by improved global risk sentiment after weak US labor‑market data, which reduced fears of further Fed rate hikes. Additional support for risk appetite came from falling oil prices amid normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which eased inflationary pressure and created a favorable backdrop for a wide range of assets.

The Australian dollar is strengthening for the second session in a row, approaching 0.690 USD and ending the week in the green. Growth is supported by the hawkish interpretation of the minutes from the June meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia: analysts at CBA and ANZ highlighted the regulator’s concern about excessive demand and capacity constraints, which signals persistent inflation risks despite market skepticism regarding further rate hikes.

The New Zealand dollar recovered to 0.570, breaking a prolonged downward trend and showing its first weekly gain in three weeks. The main catalyst for optimism was the weakening of the US dollar caused by disappointing US labor‑market data, which forced investors to revise expectations regarding aggressive Fed rate hikes. Positive dynamics for the kiwi are also supported by market anticipation of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision at the upcoming meeting. Despite expert discussions about the appropriateness of a pause in tightening due to falling global energy prices, market pricing reflects a roughly 78% probability of a rate hike.