Archive for Financial News – Page 2

29 Jul

GBP/USD at Month’s Lows: The Outlook Remains Weak

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD continued to consolidate at 1.3283 on Wednesday. The British pound hit a near one-month low in the previous session as investors monitored developments in the Middle East, while the dollar drew support from expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates today.

The suspension of US strikes on Iran contributed to a decline in oil prices and somewhat eased inflationary risks. However, US government bond yields fell only modestly, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

Attention is now turning to the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. The regulator is expected to hold rates at 3.75%, a view supported by fresh inflation data. In June, consumer price growth slowed to 2.6% on an annual basis – a 15-month low and below the Bank’s own expectations.

The rise in wholesale energy prices has not yet been fully reflected in regulated tariffs for British households. This has kept UK inflation below that of the US and the eurozone, where markets still anticipate rate hikes in September or October.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a downward move towards 1.3267. A wide consolidation range around the 1.3310 level is taking shape. An upside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.3375, while a downside breakout would suggest a move towards 1.3260, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.3190. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3309 level, currently extending down to 1.3272. A move higher towards 1.3310 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.3260. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a month as the dollar remains supported by expectations of a potential Fed rate hike. While the suspension of US strikes on Iran has helped lower oil prices and ease inflationary pressures, cautious sentiment persists as markets await the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later today. Attention will then shift to the Bank of England’s ** decision on Thursday, where rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.75%, supported by softer UK inflation data. Technically, sterling appears poised for further downside towards 1.3260 and potentially 1.3190, with the near-term outlook heavily dependent on central bank guidance and geopolitical developments.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
29 Jul

Crude oil falls below $80 per barrel. Australia sees inflation slowdown

By JustMarkets 

The US equity indices showed mixed performance on Tuesday. The Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.03%. The S&P 500 (US500) added 0.21%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed in negative territory at 0.22%. The main source of pressure on the market remained semiconductor stocks, which continued a broad sell‑off amid concerns over slowing AI‑infrastructure spending, the cyclical nature of data‑center investment, and intensifying competition following the successful IPO of China’s CXMT. As a result, Micron shares plunged 8.8%, AMD fell by 8.1%, Intel dropped 5.9%, and Sandisk collapsed 14.2%. Lower oil prices and strong corporate earnings supported defensive sectors and several large companies, allowing the Dow Jones to post a solid gain. Coca‑Cola shares jumped 5% on strong quarterly results and an upgraded full‑year outlook, while Microsoft rose 1.1% ahead of its earnings release.

European equity markets posted moderate gains on Tuesday, supported by strong corporate results and further declines in energy prices. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.63%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) slipped 0.07%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) advanced 0.83%. Positive momentum was driven by strong earnings from major companies: Unilever surged 8.5% after raising its full‑year sales outlook, Mercedes‑Benz gained 2.9% on solid profits despite lower deliveries in China, and LVMH added 1% on sales figures that met expectations.

Crude oil prices (WTI) fell to around $79 per barrel on Tuesday, hitting their lowest level in more than a week. The main driver was intensified diplomatic efforts to stabilize conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and improve the outlook for Middle Eastern supply routes. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and Oman on restoring maritime security. US President Donald Trump confirmed “constructive negotiations” with Tehran but warned that military strikes could resume if diplomacy fails – prompting Iran to threaten retaliatory measures.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) plunged 3.95%, China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 2.69%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.60%.

On Wednesday, Singapore’s SG20 Index reached a record high after a stable performance in the previous session. Gains were driven by financials, technology, and telecommunications. Investor confidence was supported by strong domestic macro data, political stability, and demand for dividend‑paying stocks, while strength in the banking sector offset the global tech sell‑off. Markets largely ignored the recent monetary tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), betting that negotiations between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will help ease Middle Eastern tensions and stabilize oil prices.

The Australian dollar (AUD) fell below 0.695 USD, hitting a two‑week low following weak macroeconomic data. Headline inflation unexpectedly slowed to a four‑month low of 3.8% in June (vs. 4.0% expected), while consumer prices posted a second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Core metrics also undershot expectations: annual trimmed‑mean inflation came in at 3.6%, and quarterly core inflation rose 0.8%. The probability of another rate hike this year dropped from over 90% to roughly 50%, and expectations of a rate increase at the upcoming August 11 meeting are now minimal.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,428.78 +15.60 (+0.21%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,747.32 +537.24 (+1.03%)

DAX (DE40) 25,464.01 +102.98 (+0.41%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,871.02 +89.27 (+0.83%)

USD Index 101.41 -0.12 (-0.12%)

News feed for: 2026.07.29

  • Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (HIGH)
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
  • US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)
  • US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)
  • US Fed Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
28 Jul

The US Tech sector hit by sell‑off. Oil prices decline on renewed negotiations

By JustMarkets

The US equity indices showed mixed performance on Monday ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow Jones (US30) rose 0.51%. The S&P 500 (US500) edged up 0.02%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed in negative territory at 0.32%.

The main source of pressure on the market came from semiconductor stocks. Nvidia plunged 5% after major headlines: the company signed a $500 billion deal with SK Hynix for memory‑chip supplies for AI systems and provided OpenAI with a $250 billion guarantee for leasing computing capacity under a data‑center project. This reignited investor concerns about the sustainability of circular financing schemes in AI infrastructure should capital expenditures by major players slow. Shares of AMD (‑5.2%), Sandisk (‑11%), Micron (‑2.2%), and Intel (‑0.7%) also declined.

European indices closed higher on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 1.04%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose 0.40%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) advanced 0.80%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) added 0.42%. European equities outperformed North America amid a sharp drop in sovereign‑bond yields. A temporary pause in the US-Iran conflict eased inflation risks and revived hopes for stable LNG and fuel supplies from the region.

Crude oil prices (WTI) continued to fall, sliding to $81 per barrel, supported by growing optimism over a potential Middle East settlement. President Donald Trump reported “constructive negotiations” with Iran and the possibility of a deal, while warning that strikes could resume if talks break down.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose 0.50% on Monday, China’s FTSE China A50 gained 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased 0.98%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 1.39%. On Tuesday, Asian equity markets saw a sharp decline. The main driver was the continued sell‑off in semiconductor stocks, triggered by mounting investor concerns over circular financing structures in the AI sector and intensifying competition from China.

Hong Kong’s trade deficit narrowed to $52 billion in June 2026 from $58.9 billion a year earlier. Exports surged 53.4% year‑on‑year to a record $641.1 billion. Exports to Asia rose 54.4%, while shipments to other key markets such as the United States (114.3%) and Mexico (94.2%) also saw strong gains. Import growth was particularly notable from mainland China and Hong Kong (41.0%) and South Korea (176.7%). From January to June, the cumulative trade deficit reached $294.6 billion.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,413.18 +1.20 (+0.02%)

Dow Jones (US30) 52,210.08 +262.83 (+0.51%)

DAX (DE40) 25,361.03 +262.03 (+1.04%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,781.75 +45.52 (+0.42%)

USD Index 101.53 +0.07 (+0.07%)

News feed for: 2026.07.28

  • Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 06:05 (GMT+3) – AUD (LOW)
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
28 Jul

Gold Declines, Focus on Fed and Falling Oil Prices

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold fell to 4,047 USD per ounce on Tuesday, erasing gains from the previous session. Pressure on the metal is mounting amid fears that the Federal Reserve may raise rates as early as this week.

Markets currently estimate the probability of such a move on Wednesday at over 33% – an unusually high level of uncertainty for the period immediately preceding a central bank meeting.

Investors speculate that a rate hike would allow Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to reaffirm his commitment to fighting inflation, following repeated promises to restore price stability.

The Fed meeting begins today and concludes on Wednesday evening with a rate decision and accompanying comments.

Additional pressure on gold came from falling oil prices after Donald Trump spoke of “good negotiations” with Iran. This eased inflation concerns, although the US President warned of a readiness to resume strikes if talks fail.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,110 USD level and, following a downside breakout, completed a downward move to 4,036 USD. A consolidation range is now forming around this level. A move lower towards 3,940 USD is expected. The MACD indicator confirms ongoing downside momentum, with its signal line above the centre line and turning lower.

On the H1 chart, the market broke below the 4,090 USD level and then moved lower to 4,036 USD. A correction towards 4,070 USD is expected next, with a wide consolidation range forming around this level. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 20 and pointing upwards towards 50, indicating the potential for a short-term corrective rebound.

Conclusion

Gold has come under pressure as markets brace for a potential Federal Reserve rate hike this week, with the probability of a move on Wednesday exceeding 33% – an unusually high level of pre-meeting uncertainty. Investors believe a hike would signal Chairman Warsh’s renewed commitment to tackling inflation. The Fed meeting gets underway today, with the rate decision due tomorrow. Further pressure came from falling oil prices following Trump’s comments on “good negotiations” with Iran, which temporarily eased inflation concerns despite the risk of renewed strikes. Technically, gold appears poised for further downside towards 3,940 USD, with any recovery likely to be capped by the Fed’s policy outlook. The central bank’s decision and forward guidance will be the key catalysts for gold’s near-term direction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
27 Jul

This week will be one of the most crowded for central‑bank meetings

By JustMarkets

The US equity indices ended Friday’s session mixed. The Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.46% on the day (‑0.40% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) edged up 0.05% (‑1.03% for the week). The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed in negative territory at 1.15% (‑2.57% for the week).

The current week will be one of the most event‑packed and critical periods of the corporate earnings season and macroeconomic calendar. Investor attention will center on quarterly results from major technology companies: Microsoft and Meta report on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. In addition, Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Ford Motor Company, PayPal, and other key corporates will release their financial results.

Equally important will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Markets will closely watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for guidance on the future trajectory of monetary policy. The US macro data block includes the advance estimate of Q2 GDP growth (expected at 2.3% annualized, supported by AI‑related investment, consumer activity, and the World Cup effect), as well as June personal income and spending figures. Additional releases include the core inflation gauge – the PCE Price Index – durable goods orders, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the University of Michigan Sentiment Index, labor‑market data, and trade statistics.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to around 17.48 per US dollar. The new US tariffs of 10-12.5%, affecting roughly 60 countries, largely bypassed Mexico’s exports. Goods meeting USMCA rules of origin remain fully exempt, while products outside the preferential regime face a minimal 10% tariff (versus 12.5% for countries without trade agreements).

European indices closed higher on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose 1.36% (+1.33% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.88% (+0.67% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) advanced 1.65% (+2.28% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished up 0.91% (+1.28% for the week). This week’s European market dynamics will be shaped by central‑bank decisions, key macro releases, and corporate earnings. The Bank of England (BoE) meets on Thursday and is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75%, with investors parsing the statement for clues on future moves. In the Eurozone, highlights include the preliminary Q2 GDP print, with expectations to show modest 0.2% growth driven by Spain, France, Germany, and Italy, as well as July inflation and unemployment data. Headline inflation is expected to tick up to 2.9%, unemployment to remain at 6.2%, and Germany’s Ifo business climate to improve for a third consecutive month. Corporate earnings from AstraZeneca, LVMH, Unilever, L’Oréal, Hermès International, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Linde will also influence sentiment.

Crude oil prices fell by 3% on Friday and another 3% on Monday, sliding to around $83 per barrel amid reports of diplomatic initiatives by Pakistan and China aimed at restarting the US-Iran negotiations. Beijing’s involvement – driven by concerns over economic interests and shipping stability in the Strait of Hormuz – boosted hopes of easing tensions. Despite the pullback, oil prices gained roughly 8% over the week amid persistent geopolitical confrontation.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped sharply by 2.73% on Friday (‑2.61% for the week). China’s FTSE China A50 fell 1.04% (+1.17% for the week), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.98% (+0.52% for the week), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed negative 0.75% (‑0.57% for the week).

China’s economic outlook this week will be shaped by the July Politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping, where policymakers will outline the key economic priorities for the second half of the year, with targeted support measures expected instead of broad stimulus. Markets will also assess official manufacturing and services PMIs and industrial‑profit data. In Japan, attention will focus on the Bank of Japan meeting, where policy settings are expected to remain unchanged after June’s rate hike; investors will watch for signals on future steps amid a projected acceleration in Tokyo core inflation to 1.8%. Australia’s calendar features June CPI, expected to rise to 4.1%, a key input for the Reserve Bank of Australia ahead of its August rate decision.

S&P 500 (US500) 7,411.98 +3.68 (+0.05%)

Dow Jones (US30) 51,947.25 +235.60 (+0.46%)

DAX (DE40) 25,099.00 +335.88 (+1.36%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,736.23 +97.06 (+0.91%)

USD Index 101.47 +0.02 (+0.02%)

News feed for: 2026.07.27

  • German ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
  • US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
27 Jul

EUR/USD Ahead of a Key Week: Holding Near Lows

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD enters the final week of July at 1.1369. Friday’s modest decline in energy prices reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates as early as its upcoming meeting, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the same time, the main currency pair remains very close to the monthly low recorded in late June. Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike before the end of the year.

Inflation risks have risen following a renewed escalation in the US–Iran conflict. Restrictions on the movement of energy tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have pushed oil and fuel prices higher.

Additional support for the dollar is coming from strong US economic data. S&P PMIs showed the fastest pace of private business activity growth this year. Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims fell at the fastest pace in nearly six decades, confirming the resilience of the labour market.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1389 level, currently extending between 1.1336 and 1.1413. This range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1420, followed by a decline to 1.1313. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1313. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1414 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower to 1.1390 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1420, and then a decline to 1.1370, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1313. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as it approaches the final week of July, hovering near monthly lows. The modest retreat in energy prices at the end of last week briefly reduced expectations of an immediate Fed rate hike, but markets continue to price in at least one increase before the end of the year. Renewed US–Iran tensions and supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation risks. Strong US economic data – including robust PMI readings and a sharp decline in jobless claims – continue to support the dollar. Technically, the pair may see a temporary corrective move towards 1.1420, but the broader bearish structure remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1313. The Federal Reserve meeting this week will be the key catalyst.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
26 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (9,592 contracts) with Steel (664 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-2,772 contracts), Silver (-1,609 contracts), Platinum (-1,264 contracts) and with Palladium (-114 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Silver leads major Metals Price Performances

The highest gainer in the Metals markets prices this week was Silver, which rose by 4.03% over the past five days. Copper was second with a modest 1.16% weekly gain, while Gold was next with a 0.99% rise. Rounding out the gainers was Steel with a 0.24% increase.

On the downside, Platinum saw a small decrease by -0.29% and was followed by Palladium, which was the biggest decliner on the week with a -0.56% drop.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (96 percent) and Steel (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (26 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being Platinum (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (46.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (47.2 percent)
Silver (26.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (29.0 percent)
Copper (95.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.0 percent)
Platinum (42.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.4 percent)
Palladium (58.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.6 percent)
Steel (74.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (71.5 percent)

 

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (4 percent) and Silver (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.4 percent)
Silver (2.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (1.9 percent)
Copper (-0.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.0 percent)
Platinum (-6.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-8.7 percent)
Palladium (-13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.0 percent)
Steel (-12.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-10.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 183,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,682 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.621.012.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.776.64.4
– Net Position:183,910-213,19929,289
– Gross Longs:224,78580,45746,143
– Gross Shorts:40,875293,65616,854
– Long to Short Ratio:5.5 to 10.3 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.150.751.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-4.96.1

 

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,074 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.530.125.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.568.19.8
– Net Position:23,465-40,45316,988
– Gross Longs:36,74132,05027,461
– Gross Shorts:13,27672,50310,473
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.372.646.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-0.1-6.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 73,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 9,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,385 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.031.27.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.661.64.1
– Net Position:73,977-82,1128,135
– Gross Longs:108,03484,12219,336
– Gross Shorts:34,057166,23411,201
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.65.556.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.41.5-7.0

 

Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 12,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -1,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,748 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.633.314.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.464.56.1
– Net Position:12,484-16,7794,295
– Gross Longs:21,80717,8927,594
– Gross Shorts:9,32334,6713,299
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.263.148.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.39.7-14.3

 

Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,889 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.047.511.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.222.010.0
– Net Position:-5,0034,701302
– Gross Longs:6,6438,7612,139
– Gross Shorts:11,6464,0601,837
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.946.428.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.515.1-15.0

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 9,053 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,389 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.964.00.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.186.30.1
– Net Position:9,053-9,252199
– Gross Longs:12,01726,604252
– Gross Shorts:2,96435,85653
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.7 to 14.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.626.050.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.513.1-22.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
26 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

Bonds Market Net Speculators Positions
The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (26,996 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (20,954 contracts), the Fed Funds (15,277 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8,004 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,057 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (2,880 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-48,031 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-7,734 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-339 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Major Bonds Price Performances were mostly lower on the week

The major Bond markets out of the US saw lower prices on the week with the Fed Funds being the only market that did not show a decline because it was virtually unchanged with a 0.00% return.

On the downside, the 1-month SOFR dipped by -0.12% and was followed by the 3-month SOFR, which declined by -0.16%. Next, the 2-year Bond was lower by -0.26% and was followed by the 5-year Bond, which slid by -0.56%.

The 10-Year Note declined on the week by -0.82%, and the long US Treasury Bond was the biggest decliner on the week with a -1.38% decrease.

Bonds Data:

Bonds Market Speculators Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

Bonds Market Strength Index Comparison
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (84 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 2-Year Bonds (70 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (2 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (7 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 10-Year Bonds (32 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (40 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (2.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (0.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (69.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (69.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (84.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (82.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (37.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (71.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (69.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (21.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (50.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (49.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (39.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (39.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (6.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (5.9 percent)

2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Bonds Market Trend Index Comparison
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bonds (8 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-1 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-30.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-38.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (22.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-8.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-6.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-1.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-5.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-3.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-14.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -392,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 15,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -407,579 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.867.12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.151.51.6
– Net Position:-392,302375,56216,740
– Gross Longs:308,6911,615,25256,321
– Gross Shorts:700,9931,239,69039,581
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.197.678.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.028.821.4

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,665,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 26,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,692,081 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.066.50.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.346.10.5
– Net Position:-2,665,0852,662,6982,387
– Gross Longs:1,563,8268,696,83162,396
– Gross Shorts:4,228,9116,034,13360,009
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.693.360.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.63.51.8

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -218,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -218,581 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.764.73.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.950.33.7
– Net Position:-218,920220,317-1,397
– Gross Longs:210,161993,05655,793
– Gross Shorts:429,081772,73957,190
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.560.664.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.92.1-3.0

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,154,597 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 2,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,157,477 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.377.75.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.952.63.6
– Net Position:-1,154,5971,087,80666,791
– Gross Longs:489,3673,368,264221,608
– Gross Shorts:1,643,9642,280,458154,817
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.934.416.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.8-7.91.7

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,273,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 20,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,294,283 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.683.06.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.362.46.3
– Net Position:-1,273,3291,268,4944,835
– Gross Longs:528,6675,105,602392,534
– Gross Shorts:1,801,9963,837,108387,699
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.023.813.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.8-3.00.6

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -879,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -48,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831,675 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.680.77.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.363.87.5
– Net Position:-879,706890,118-10,412
– Gross Longs:508,3184,254,929382,845
– Gross Shorts:1,388,0243,364,811393,257
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.685.94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.93.6-3.0

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -137,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 8,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -145,636 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.681.78.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.272.612.0
– Net Position:-137,632220,725-83,093
– Gross Longs:206,9581,975,623206,499
– Gross Shorts:344,5901,754,898289,592
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.133.441.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.4-2.222.6

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -186,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -7,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -179,056 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.174.613.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.369.68.0
– Net Position:-186,79092,42794,363
– Gross Longs:204,8481,374,093241,642
– Gross Shorts:391,6381,281,666147,279
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.469.846.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.26.3-0.8

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -321,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 3,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -324,407 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.285.48.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.473.47.3
– Net Position:-321,350293,47027,880
– Gross Longs:128,4212,088,806207,090
– Gross Shorts:449,7711,795,336179,210
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.654.543.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.0-10.230.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News
26 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

Speculators Nets Energy Futures COT Chart
The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (19,006 contracts) with Natural Gas (7,474 contracts), Gasoline (3,009 contracts) and Heating Oil (1,238 contracts) also having positive weeks.

Leading the markets with declines in speculator bets for the week was Brent Oil (-5,306 contracts) with Bloomberg Index (-117 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent and WTI Crude Oil lead Energy Price Performances

The Energy markets this week saw mostly higher prices throughout as the Iran war has come back in full force and sparked higher prices, especially amongst the Oil markets. Brent Oil was the highest Energy market price performer this week with an 11.10% increase.

WTI Crude Oil followed that with an almost 10% increase as it rose by 9.27%. Heating Oil was higher by 6.75%, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 3.04%. Gasoline rounded out the gainers with a 2.25% rise.

On the downside was Natural Gas, which dipped by -1.54%.

Energy Data:

Speculators Table Energy Futures COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Gasoline

Speculators Strength Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (56.2 percent), Gasoline (54.5 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.0 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, WTI Crude (13.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (22.7 percent) followed by Brent Oil (37.1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (13.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (37.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (45.4 percent)
Natural Gas (22.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (17.9 percent)
Gasoline (54.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (51.2 percent)
Heating Oil (56.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (54.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (53.1 percent)

 

Bloomberg Index & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bloomberg Index (44.3 percent) and Gasoline (15.4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Brent Oil (-28.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with WTI Crude (-15.7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-15.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-30.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-28.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-4.8 percent)
Natural Gas (14.6 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (4.8 percent)
Gasoline (15.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (2.6 percent)
Heating Oil (10.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (5.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (39.5 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 81,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 19,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,683 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.648.14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.353.92.7
– Net Position:81,689-108,60126,912
– Gross Longs:310,182896,29477,077
– Gross Shorts:228,4931,004,89550,165
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.583.654.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.719.0-26.7

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,424 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.835.93.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.626.62.4
– Net Position:-26,73023,0423,688
– Gross Longs:54,04588,9939,598
– Gross Shorts:80,77565,9515,910
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.157.068.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.133.0-28.0

 

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -171,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 7,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,612 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.632.53.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.823.02.7
– Net Position:-171,138159,10212,036
– Gross Longs:295,206545,82557,672
– Gross Shorts:466,344386,72345,636
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.780.233.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.6-10.6-15.6

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 60,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 3,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,985 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.240.77.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.762.73.8
– Net Position:60,994-72,80511,811
– Gross Longs:103,070134,56424,499
– Gross Shorts:42,076207,36912,688
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.539.171.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-13.9-0.5

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 1,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,476 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.643.119.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.956.210.1
– Net Position:9,714-33,89624,182
– Gross Longs:48,267111,77650,273
– Gross Shorts:38,553145,67226,091
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.234.384.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.4-7.2-0.9

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -30,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,195 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.946.30.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.431.00.0
– Net Position:-30,31229,880432
– Gross Longs:103,13090,367458
– Gross Shorts:133,44260,48726
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.5 to 117.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.047.079.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:44.3-44.2-1.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News
26 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (55,187 contracts) with Soybeans (50,243 contracts), Soybean Meal (26,823 contracts), Lean Hogs (16,426 contracts), Wheat (9,330 contracts), Soybean Oil (6,899 contracts) and Cocoa (6,677 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-14,691 contracts) with Sugar (-2,345 contracts), Coffee (-572 contracts) and with Cotton (-335 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soybean Meal leads the weekly Soft Commodities Price Performance Leaders

This week’s highest price performance for the Soft Commodities markets was Soybean Meal, which rose by over 5% with a 5.29% gain. Soybeans was next up with a 3.77% gain, followed by Soybean Oil, which rose by 3.42%. Not far behind was Corn with a 3.28% gain over the past five days, while Wheat was higher by 1.53%.

Live Cattle saw a small boost by 0.71% on the week, while Cotton rounded out the gainers with a 0.60% increase.

On the downside, Sugar saw a small dip by -0.40%. Coffee was lower by -2.15%, while Cocoa fell by almost 5% with a -4.97% decline. The biggest decliner on the week was Lean Hogs, which dropped by -12.42% over the past five days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton & Wheat

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (96 percent) and Wheat (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (83 percent), Soybean Meal (81 percent) and Soybean Oil (77 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (10 percent) and Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Live Cattle (32 percent) and the Sugar (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (61.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (54.1 percent)
Sugar (38.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (38.4 percent)
Coffee (50.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (51.1 percent)
Soybeans (82.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (71.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (76.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (73.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (81.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (70.5 percent)
Live Cattle (31.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (46.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (95.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (95.9 percent)
Cocoa (17.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (11.7 percent)
Wheat (93.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (85.5 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (43 percent) and Coffee (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (18 percent), Corn (11 percent) and Soybean Meal (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-4 percent) and Soybean Oil (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.3 percent)
Sugar (8.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.0 percent)
Coffee (21.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (14.5 percent)
Soybeans (5.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-13.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-3.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-16.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-28.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-15.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (11.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.1 percent)
Cocoa (17.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.0 percent)
Wheat (42.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (20.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 186,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 55,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 131,463 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.340.87.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.548.810.5
– Net Position:186,650-139,254-47,396
– Gross Longs:492,296710,336135,901
– Gross Shorts:305,646849,590183,297
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.636.164.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.3-13.12.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,145 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.547.17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.841.17.2
– Net Position:-64,49060,6153,875
– Gross Longs:268,757478,39677,257
– Gross Shorts:333,247417,78173,382
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.063.637.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-8.16.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,827 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.137.74.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.455.63.4
– Net Position:27,255-29,0891,834
– Gross Longs:52,39561,5507,362
– Gross Shorts:25,14090,6395,528
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.550.047.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.2-22.638.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 175,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 50,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,403 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.446.74.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.661.46.8
– Net Position:175,646-152,981-22,665
– Gross Longs:255,148488,30748,547
– Gross Shorts:79,502641,28871,212
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.617.642.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-7.118.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 114,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position uptick of 6,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,243 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.846.85.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.565.74.0
– Net Position:114,142-124,87510,733
– Gross Longs:170,407309,75637,450
– Gross Shorts:56,265434,63126,717
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.722.671.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.24.0-12.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 113,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 26,823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,037 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.641.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.263.44.6
– Net Position:113,860-135,00321,143
– Gross Longs:182,923256,75249,534
– Gross Shorts:69,063391,75528,391
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.419.760.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.5-10.2-17.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -14,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,705 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.036.49.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.952.611.4
– Net Position:55,014-48,925-6,089
– Gross Longs:103,155110,39828,352
– Gross Shorts:48,141159,32334,441
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.961.577.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.228.316.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,802 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position uptick of 16,426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,228 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.141.97.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.323.87.5
– Net Position:-48,80248,492310
– Gross Longs:64,456112,10420,434
– Gross Shorts:113,25863,61220,124
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.790.887.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.04.3-0.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,112 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,447 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.635.64.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.767.92.5
– Net Position:95,112-102,6787,566
– Gross Longs:135,353113,03715,433
– Gross Shorts:40,241215,7157,867
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.77.859.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.4-11.29.0

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 6,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,584 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.549.55.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.548.54.2
– Net Position:-3,9072,1571,750
– Gross Longs:35,31199,83910,125
– Gross Shorts:39,21897,6828,375
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.680.843.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.5-19.225.5

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position uptick of 9,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,339 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.138.67.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.635.98.4
– Net Position:-7,00912,187-5,178
– Gross Longs:109,575175,70133,254
– Gross Shorts:116,584163,51438,432
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.413.223.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:42.7-38.1-39.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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