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Archive for Financial News – Page 2

Fast fashion may seem cheap, but it’s taking a costly toll on the planet − and on millions of young customers

By Paula M. Carbone, University of Southern California

Fast fashion is everywhere – in just about every mall, in the feeds of influencers on social media promoting overconsumption, and in ads constantly popping up online.

Its focus on the continual production of new clothing is marked by speedy fashion cycles that give it its name. Fast fashion is intended to quickly copy high-end designs, but with low-quality materials, resulting in poorly made clothing intended to be worn once or twice before being thrown away.

One of fast fashion’s leading companies, Zara, has a mission to put clothes in stores 15 days after the initial design. Another, Shein, adds up to 2,000 new items to its website daily.

While others in the fashion industry are working toward more sustainable clothing, fast fashion is focused on profit. The market’s value was estimated at about US$100 billion in 2022 and growing quickly. It’s a large part of the reason global clothing production doubled from 2000 to 2014.

The big winners in this game are the corporations. The industry has a reputation for exploiting workers and for excessive pollution and extraordinary waste. Consumers are pulled into an unhealthy, spiraling pressure to buy more as cheap clothes fall apart fast.

Fast fashion also has a growing impact on the global climate. It is responsible for an estimated 8% to 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and its emissions are projected to grow quickly as the industry expands.

I teach courses that explore fast fashion and sustainability. The industry’s growth seems unstoppable – but a combination of legislation and willpower might just rein it in.

Understanding the harm

About 60% of fast-fashion items are made from synthetic textiles derived from plastics and chemicals that start their life as fossil fuels. When this synthetic clothing is laundered or thrown in landfills to decompose, it can release microplastics into the environment. Microplastics contain chemicals including phthalates and bisphenol A that can affect the health of humans and animals.

Natural fibers have their own impacts on the environment. Growing cotton requires large quantities of water, and pesticides can run off from farmlands into streams, rivers and bays. Water is also used in chemically treating and dyeing textiles. A 2005 United Nations-led report on cotton’s water use estimated that, on average, a single cotton T-shirt requires about 700 gallons (2,650 liters) of water from crop to clothing rack, with about 300 gallons (1,135 liters) of that water used for irrigation.

The chemicals used to process textiles for clothing for the fashion industry also contaminate wastewater with heavy metals, such as cadmium and lead, and toxic dyes. And that wastewater ends up in waterways in many countries, affecting the environment and wildlife.

Fast fashion’s high output also creates literally mountains of waste. More than 90 million tons of textile waste ends up in landfills globally each year, by one estimate, adding to greenhouse gases as it slowly decomposes. Only a small percentage of discarded clothing is recycled.

From fashionista to environmental guardian

In many cultures, people’s self-perception is intimately connected to fashion choices, reflecting culture and alliances.

The allure of buying new items comes from many sources. Influencers on social media play into FOMO – the fear of missing out. Cheap items can also lead to impulse buys.

Research shows that shopping can also create a euphoric sense of happiness. However, fast fashion’s speed and marketing can also train consumers into “psychological obsolescence,” causing them to dislike purchases they previously enjoyed, so they quickly replace them with new purchases.

Famous personalities may be helping to push back on this trend. Social media explodes when a first lady or Kate Middleton, the Princess of Wales, wears an outfit more than once. The movement #30wearschallenge is starting with small steps, by urging consumers to plan to wear every piece of clothing they buy at least 30 times.

Upcycling – turning old clothing into new clothing items – and buying sustainable and high-quality clothes that can last for years is being promoted by the United Nations and other organizations, including alliances in the fashion industry.

Some influencers are also promoting more sustainable fashion brands. Research has shown that peer influence can be a powerful driver for making more sustainable choices. The largest market for fast fashion is Gen Z, ages 12 to 27, many of whom are also concerned about climate change and might reconsider their fast-fashion buys if they recognized the connections between fast fashion and environmental harm.

Some governments are also taking steps to reduce waste from fashion and other consumer products. The European Union is developing requirements for clothing to last longer and prohibiting companies from throwing out unsold textiles and footwear. France has pending legislation that, if passed, would ban publicity for fast-fashion companies and their products, require them to post the environmental impact of their products, and levy fines for violations.

Changes in consumer habits, new technologies and legislation can each help reduce demand for unsustainable fashion. The cost of cheap clothes worn a few times also adds up. Next time you buy clothing, think about the long-term value to you and the planet.

This article, originally published Nov. 21, has been updated to correct the title of Kate, Princess of Wales.

About the Author:

Paula M. Carbone, Professor of Clinical Education, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Nov

“Trump trades” and geopolitics are the key factors driving market activity

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.97% (week-to-date +1.99%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.35% (week-to-date +1.62%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.17% (week-to-date +1.59%). Investor rotation from technology sectors to economically sensitive sectors such as financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary contributed to the broader market’s gains. On the economic front, S&P’s US PMI for November rose to 55.3, showing the fastest private sector growth since April 2022.

Mexico’s Q3 2024 GDP grew by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, the fastest pace since Q1 2022, beating estimates of 1%. Mexico’s annual inflation rate fell to 4.56% in mid-November, an eight-month low, down from 4.69% in October and below projections. Despite strong growth supporting gradual rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico, the peso (MXN) is under pressure from the US dollar rally driven by a strong labor market, sustained Fed policy expectations, and speculation about President-elect Trump’s inflationary policies. Reports of the appointment of trade hawk Robert Lighthizer as US Trade Representative and the potential appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State with his hardline stance on Latin America further add to concerns.

Investors who bet on “buying a digital asset and the dollar” after Trump’s victory are still in profit. Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 mark and is up about 50% since early October, when markets were leaning toward Trump’s election victory. The Dollar Index is up 3.6%. The Mexican peso has lost over 4%, and European stocks are down about 3%. However, resistance to Trump-related trades could increase if equity valuation concerns intensify or geopolitical risks challenge the rally in risk assets.

Equity markets in Europe were rising on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.92% (week-to-date +0.38%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.58% (week-to-date -0.27%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.39% (week-to-date +0.16%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.38% (week-to-date +2.46%). According to the ECB representatives, the European Central Bank’s policy will evolve regardless of what happens in the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg estimates that the Fed will cut rates in December, but policymakers will keep borrowing costs unchanged in January. Meanwhile, the ECB has cut rates three times since June and is expected to continue at its next four meetings.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Friday he would reintroduce negative interest rates if necessary, which has weakened the Swiss franc against the dollar and euro. Schlegel said the Central Bank doesn’t like negative rates but could use them if necessary to reduce investor appetite for the safe-haven franc. The SNB has cut the benchmark rate to 1% three times during 2024 and expects further cuts. There is currently a 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 28% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the Central Bank’s next meeting in December.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.6% to $71.2 a barrel on Friday, ending the week up more than 5%, helped by the escalating conflict in Ukraine, which added a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. China unveiled new policies aimed at boosting trade, including support for energy imports, amid concerns over Trump’s potential tariffs.

The US natural gas prices fell to $3.1 per mmbbl after hitting a one-year high of $3.35 in November 21 amid expectations of higher production next year. The EIA noted that US drillers are expected to increase production next year for the first time since the pandemic amid increased export capacity and global demand for US LNG. Nevertheless, prices rose nearly 20% in November as estimates of the colder weather accelerated expectations for the start of the storage withdrawal season.

Asian markets were flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.83%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.87%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.31%.

Japan’s Coincident Economic Index, which includes data such as output, employment, and retail sales, came in at 115.3 for September 2024, slightly below the prognoses of 115.7. Nevertheless, this result has improved compared to the six-month low of 114.0 recorded in August, reflecting a moderate economic recovery.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,969.34 +20.63 (+0.35%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,296.51 +426.16 (+0.97%)

DAX (DE40) 19,322.59 +176.42 (+0.92%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,262.08 +112.81 (+1.38%)

USD Index 107.49 +0.52 (+0.48%)

News feed for: 2024.11.25

Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Unemployment Level (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Nov

EUR/USD Amid Slowing European Economy

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD encountered significant pressure, testing a low of 1.0331 before rebounding to 1.0476, as market concerns mount over the potential economic slowdown in Europe and aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Recent business surveys indicating an accelerated economic contraction in Germany and France have starkly dampened the euro’s outlook. Additionally, under the newly elected President Donald Trump’s administration, potential new trade duties from the US threaten to exacerbate Germany’s already fragile economic state. Trump’s protectionist stance could notably impact German industries, intensifying existing internal challenges.

Investors are bracing for a scenario where the ECB might implement rate reductions more swiftly than anticipated. At the same time, the Federal Reserve may hold steady, expanding the interest rate differential unfavourably against the euro.

This backdrop has led to heightened investor nervousness about the euro’s future, with further potential declines in EUR/USD not ruled out amidst ongoing uncertainties regarding the full pricing-in of these expectations.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 chart: the EUR/USD has hit its projected low at 1.0331, subsequently initiating a rebound towards 1.0500. Upon reaching this level, a pullback to 1.0414 may occur. The market may form a consolidation range around 1.0414, with potential upward movements targeting 1.0570 and possibly extending to 1.0655. This EUR/USD outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which suggests an impending rise from below the zero level.

H1 chart: the pair is forming a rise to 1.0500, which is anticipated as an initial target. After this level, a corrective phase towards 1.0414 is expected, suggesting a test from above. The stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, indicating a readiness to descend from a mid-range position towards lower thresholds.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (2,443 contracts) with Palladium (19 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,403 contracts), Gold (-2,084 contracts), Silver (-1,319 contracts) and with Steel (-489 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (91 percent) and Silver (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (70 percent) and Gold (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (48 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (69.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.0 percent)
Silver (74.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (76.4 percent)
Copper (47.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.7 percent)
Platinum (69.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (63.8 percent)
Palladium (55.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (55.7 percent)
Steel (91.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (93.2 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7 percent) and Steel (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-26 percent), Gold (-17 percent) and Silver (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-16.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (-24.1 percent)
Silver (-10.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.7 percent)
Copper (-25.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.8 percent)
Platinum (-2.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-18.7 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (11.4 percent)
Steel (1.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 234,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 236,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.5	14.6	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	66.8	4.9
– Net Position:	234,367	-262,322	27,955
– Gross Longs:	309,354	73,459	52,421
– Gross Shorts:	74,987	335,781	24,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	27.9	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	15.0	7.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	24.4	21.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.5	8.0
– Net Position:	46,323	-65,081	18,758
– Gross Longs:	65,939	34,466	30,090
– Gross Shorts:	19,616	99,547	11,332
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.7	22.4	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	12.9	-15.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	35.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	45.7	5.2
– Net Position:	15,442	-21,842	6,400
– Gross Longs:	87,842	80,198	18,115
– Gross Shorts:	72,400	102,040	11,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	51.6	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	26.3	-17.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	18.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	51.6	3.6
– Net Position:	22,676	-29,759	7,083
– Gross Longs:	55,437	16,102	10,307
– Gross Shorts:	32,761	45,861	3,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	26.2	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.8	-4.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,313 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	47.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.8	16.4	9.1
– Net Position:	-6,294	5,696	598
– Gross Longs:	4,726	8,673	2,256
– Gross Shorts:	11,020	2,977	1,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	44.6	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-8.1	5.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	72.4	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	68.0	0.7
– Net Position:	-1,297	1,237	60
– Gross Longs:	6,088	20,174	261
– Gross Shorts:	7,385	18,937	201
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.4	9.3	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-0.9	-28.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

23 Nov

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra Treasury Bonds (15,980 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (6,123 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (4,701 contracts) also seeing small positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-113,816 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-91,701 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-61,073 contracts), the Fed Funds (-57,577 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-23,473 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-14,477 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (100 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 10-Year Bonds (22 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (44.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (55.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (30.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (71.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (68.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (100.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (93.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (36.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (35.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (44.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (47.9 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-35 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-23 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-20 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-45.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-44.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-15.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-20.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-22.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-19.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (24.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (22.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (14.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-34.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-43.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -55,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -57,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	66.3	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	63.0	2.1
– Net Position:	-55,140	57,093	-1,953
– Gross Longs:	144,425	1,126,402	32,994
– Gross Shorts:	199,565	1,069,309	34,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	52.4	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.6	43.0	19.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -300,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -61,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	58.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	55.4	0.5
– Net Position:	-300,954	319,102	-18,148
– Gross Longs:	1,462,583	6,428,182	35,198
– Gross Shorts:	1,763,537	6,109,080	53,346
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	56.1	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.6	35.8	-12.5

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -130,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -135,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	64.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	53.6	0.0
– Net Position:	-130,957	131,159	-202
– Gross Longs:	167,017	782,983	230
– Gross Shorts:	297,974	651,824	432
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	63.8	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-22.6	3.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,447,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,423,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	78.5	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	50.6	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,447,344	1,288,654	158,690
– Gross Longs:	508,805	3,626,185	276,844
– Gross Shorts:	1,956,149	2,337,531	118,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	96.6	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	18.7	-9.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,983,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -113,816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,869,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	82.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	55.3	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,983,026	1,861,574	121,452
– Gross Longs:	407,669	5,621,654	429,703
– Gross Shorts:	2,390,695	3,760,080	308,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	29.1	-13.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -907,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -91,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -815,801 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	78.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	60.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-907,502	856,303	51,199
– Gross Longs:	424,509	3,710,545	442,533
– Gross Shorts:	1,332,011	2,854,242	391,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	83.6	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	6.2	-23.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -171,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -156,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	74.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	63.3	13.2
– Net Position:	-171,268	249,454	-78,186
– Gross Longs:	312,413	1,678,313	219,354
– Gross Shorts:	483,681	1,428,859	297,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	68.0	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	30.1	-3.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	59.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	61.3	6.7
– Net Position:	-35,645	-36,093	71,738
– Gross Longs:	430,752	1,226,901	209,744
– Gross Shorts:	466,397	1,262,994	138,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	16.7	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-3.6	-20.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -225,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -241,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	77.2	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	65.7	9.2
– Net Position:	-225,304	210,507	14,797
– Gross Longs:	166,467	1,410,459	183,468
– Gross Shorts:	391,771	1,199,952	168,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-27.4	-2.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

23 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (3,616 contracts) with Coffee (450 contracts) and Live Cattle (408 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-29,061 contracts), Soybean Meal (-28,762 contracts), Cotton (-19,649 contracts), Corn (-14,345 contracts), Soybeans (-9,218 contracts), Wheat (-7,510 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,000 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,668 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (96 percent) and Coffee (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (79 percent), Live Cattle (71 percent) and Corn (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (21 percent), Soybeans (26 percent) and the Sugar (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (54.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (56.5 percent)
Sugar (26.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (25.4 percent)
Coffee (93.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.6 percent)
Soybeans (26.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (28.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (94.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (32.5 percent)
Live Cattle (70.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (70.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (96.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (10.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (47.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (49.0 percent)
Wheat (40.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (46.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (35 percent) and Live Cattle (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (16 percent), Coffee (6 percent) and Soybean Oil (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-26 percent), Cotton (-13 percent) and Sugar (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (16.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.5 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.6 percent)
Coffee (6.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (-8.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-47.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-37.5 percent)
Live Cattle (22.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (50.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.9 percent)
Cocoa (-3.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.1 percent)
Wheat (-25.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 163,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.3	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	54.1	10.8
– Net Position:	163,301	-113,151	-50,150
– Gross Longs:	418,990	787,938	129,840
– Gross Shorts:	255,689	901,089	179,990
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	47.5	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-17.7	8.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	50.6	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	62.1	5.5
– Net Position:	71,738	-101,154	29,416
– Gross Longs:	220,130	445,189	77,757
– Gross Shorts:	148,392	546,343	48,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	67.4	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	11.1	-9.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	36.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	72.7	2.8
– Net Position:	68,918	-73,015	4,097
– Gross Longs:	79,031	71,892	9,610
– Gross Shorts:	10,113	144,907	5,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.0	5.6	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.6	8.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -86,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,113 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	58.1	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	46.0	7.8
– Net Position:	-86,331	109,077	-22,746
– Gross Longs:	168,134	524,558	48,087
– Gross Shorts:	254,465	415,481	70,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	75.7	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.2	26.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	49.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	63.4	4.2
– Net Position:	68,164	-81,071	12,907
– Gross Longs:	161,005	285,534	37,163
– Gross Shorts:	92,841	366,605	24,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	22.9	64.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-9.4	43.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -28,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	46.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	47.6	5.5
– Net Position:	-16,256	-9,392	25,648
– Gross Longs:	145,560	286,611	59,727
– Gross Shorts:	161,816	296,003	34,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	74.0	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.6	46.9	-10.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 85,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.1	33.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	51.3	13.7
– Net Position:	85,187	-63,090	-22,097
– Gross Longs:	152,864	114,603	25,343
– Gross Shorts:	67,677	177,693	47,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	45.3	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-21.0	-12.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	29.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	47.9	9.0
– Net Position:	71,982	-62,301	-9,681
– Gross Longs:	157,401	102,204	21,302
– Gross Shorts:	85,419	164,505	30,983
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	5.4	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-33.5	-19.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	50.5	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	37.6	5.5
– Net Position:	-31,135	30,832	303
– Gross Longs:	58,166	121,093	13,578
– Gross Shorts:	89,301	90,261	13,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.1	88.9	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	12.6	-5.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	37.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	71.2	4.0
– Net Position:	36,594	-43,784	7,190
– Gross Longs:	55,932	48,440	12,337
– Gross Shorts:	19,338	92,224	5,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	48.1	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	3.2	1.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -46,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	38.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	26.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-46,039	53,723	-7,684
– Gross Longs:	116,397	173,884	30,822
– Gross Shorts:	162,436	120,161	38,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	64.0	16.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	27.3	-7.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (9,910 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (3,423 contracts) also showing a gaining week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-5,401 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,249 contracts), the VIX (-4,386 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-547 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (88 percent) and the Russell-Mini (84 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (70 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (88.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (92.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (69.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (68.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (84.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (87.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (10 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-5.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (10.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (6.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-5.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (10.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (0.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-8.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-4.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	41.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	38.9	7.4
– Net Position:	-8,809	8,476	333
– Gross Longs:	78,339	146,068	26,481
– Gross Shorts:	87,148	137,592	26,148
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.4	15.2	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	3.4	7.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	68.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	77.0	6.4
– Net Position:	34,911	-182,867	147,956
– Gross Longs:	348,339	1,556,553	291,954
– Gross Shorts:	313,428	1,739,420	143,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	14.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-13.1	22.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	52.8	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.2	11.8
– Net Position:	8,265	-14,757	6,492
– Gross Longs:	19,992	44,691	16,466
– Gross Shorts:	11,727	59,448	9,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	16.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	1.6	31.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	57.6	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	69.3	9.8
– Net Position:	19,803	-32,162	12,359
– Gross Longs:	66,681	158,513	39,446
– Gross Shorts:	46,878	190,675	27,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	17.2	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-8.1	1.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	72.5	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	78.1	3.5
– Net Position:	3,145	-27,356	24,211
– Gross Longs:	77,154	354,411	41,366
– Gross Shorts:	74,009	381,767	17,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	7.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	-5.4	32.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	88.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	82.3	1.8
– Net Position:	-32,018	28,405	3,613
– Gross Longs:	36,620	390,910	11,462
– Gross Shorts:	68,638	362,505	7,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	65.6	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	6.4	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

22 Nov

Bitcoin price is approaching 100,000. Natural gas prices rise due to declining inventories and cold weather

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was up 1.06%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed positive 0.53%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.36%.

The Dollar Index remained above 107, holding near two-year highs, as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Data released on Thursday showed that weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low, further evidence of a strong labor market. Investors await business activity data today and inflation data next week for more economic information.

Alphabet (GOOG) fell more than 6% after antitrust regulators said in court Wednesday that Google must get rid of Chrome, citing that the browser “reinforced” the company’s dominant position. Salesforce (CRM) is up more than 4% and tops the leaderboard in the Dow Jones Industrials after Stifel raised its price target on the company’s shares to $390 from $350. PDD Holdings (PDD) is down more than 9% and tops the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reporting third-quarter revenue of ¥99.35 billion, weaker than the consensus estimate of ¥102.83 billion.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rose more than 2%, hitting a new record high above $99,000 on optimism that President-elect Trump’s support for digital assets will boost the industry as the US moves toward friendly regulation of digital assets. Trump’s team has begun discussing creating a position in the White House dedicated to digital asset policy.

Inflationary pressures intensified in Canada, with producer prices rising 1.2% month-on-month in October, the strongest increase since April. Earlier data showed consumer inflation exceeded estimates on key indicators, with the average core inflation rate rising to 2.6% in October from a three-year low of 2.4% in September.

Equity markets in Europe ended trading yesterday on a strong note. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.74%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.21% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.79%. The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for November unexpectedly fell by 1.2 to a 5-month low of 13.7, weaker than expectations for a rise to 12.4.

The US natural gas prices rose by 7% to 4.3 million barrels per ton, extending yesterday’s 6% gain to the highest level in a year, as estimates of colder weather boosted heating demand and accelerated expectations for the start of the storage withdrawal season. EIA data showed that gas inventories in storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet in the week ending November 15 instead of the 5 billion cubic feet expected. This was the first accelerated decline this season, as relatively low prices in the previous week forced producers to cut production.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.53% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.04%.

Malaysia’s annualized inflation rate for October 2024 was 1.9%, slightly above market estimates, and September’s 1.8%, the lowest in five months. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative costs, rose to 1.8% y/y, holding steady for the second month and remaining at the lowest level in six months.

Australian manufacturing activity continued to contract for the 10th consecutive month in November, although the rate of decline slowed to its lowest level in six months. At the same time, service sector activity moved into contraction for the first time in ten months.

Japan’s core Consumer Price Index, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose to an annualized rate of 2.3% in October 2024. However, the increase was slightly above the market projections of 2.2%. Despite this, Japan’s core inflation has remained at or above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than two years, which has contributed to the Central Bank’s more hawkish stance.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,948.71 +31.60 (+0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,870.35 +461.88 (+1.06%)

DAX (DE40) 19,146.17 +141.39 (+0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,149.27 +64.20 (+0.79%)

USD Index 106.99 +0.31 (+0.29%)

News feed for: 2024.11.22

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Japan National Core CPI at 01:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
German GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks at 14:40 (GMT+2);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Nov

USD/JPY Awaits Potential Stimulus Impact

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair remains stable at approximately 154.30 amid global economic fluctuations and expectations of potential Japanese stimulus measures.

Japan’s latest inflation data for October revealed a decline to 2.3%, marking the lowest level in nine months and potentially easing pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) for immediate rate hikes. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has hinted at a possible rate increase in December due to the yen’s prolonged weakness.

Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted more than anticipated in November, while the service sector showed expansion, highlighting a mixed economic outlook.

Reports suggest the Japanese government may introduce a significant stimulus package worth 90 billion USD to mitigate the impact of inflation on households. While details remain undisclosed, the possibility of such measures has generated some optimism around the yen.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 Chart: the USD/JPY is forming a consolidation pattern around 154.45. A downward breakout could lead to further movement towards 153.00, while an upward breakout might pave the way to 156.20, potentially extending to 157.60. The MACD indicator supports this USD/JPY outlook, with its signal line positioned above zero but trending downwards, suggesting the pair is approaching a critical decision point.

H1 Chart: a consolidation around 154.45, potentially extending to 154.88, sets the stage for possible corrective movements towards 153.00. A subsequent recovery could push the pair to 156.20, marking a new growth phase. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, indicates overbought conditions, signalling a likely retraction to lower levels, aligning with the potential for a near-term correction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Nov

RBNZ may cut the rate by 0.75% next week. NVDA report did not meet investors’ expectations

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s end, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.32%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed at the opening price. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) declined 0.08%.

Nvidia (NVDA) reported fiscal third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates, but its plans for the current quarter fell short of investors’ inflated expectations amid hot demand for artificial intelligence. NVIDIA Corporation shares fell more than 2% in after-hours trading following the report. Qualcomm (QCOM) closed down more than 6%, leading to a decline in chip stocks after Susquehanna Financial cut its price target on the company’s shares to $210 from $230. Additionally, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Texas Instruments (TXN) were down more than 1%.

Of the 90% of S&P 500 companies that posted Q3 earnings, 75% beat estimates, slightly below the 3-year average. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies reported an average 8.5% year-over-year increase in Q3 quarterly earnings, more than double estimates.

Equity markets in Europe ended trading yesterday on a weak note. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.29%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.43%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.01%, the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.17%. Investors sold risk assets following reports that Ukraine fired UK-made Storm Shadow missiles at Russian territory for the first time since the war began in 2022. This followed the firing of US-made ATACMS missiles the same morning Russia expanded the scenario, justifying the use of nuclear weapons and raising fears of a wider conflict with possible NATO involvement. However, by the end of the day, geopolitical tensions in Europe had eased after Reuters reported that Russian President Putin was willing to discuss a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine with US President-elect Trump, which could roughly freeze the war on current front lines.

The US crude inventories rose by 545,000 barrels last week, exceeding market projections. Oil markets have come under pressure in recent months amid concerns about a possible oil glut next year due to slowing demand growth in China and record-high production levels, even as OPEC+ maintains current production levels.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices rose more than 6% to nearly $3.2/MMBtu, the highest since June 11, as colder weather in late November is expected to boost heating demand.

Asian markets were flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.16%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.21%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.57%.

On Thursday, the New Zealand Treasury said it is likely to revise its economic and fiscal estimates downward due to a prolonged slowdown in labor productivity growth. This has prompted investors to increasingly consider the possibility that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut its 4.75% cash rate by 75bps more aggressively at its meeting next week, with a 50bps cut already fully priced in.

China’s Central Bank left key lending rates unchanged this week as expected, but investors remain hopeful that Beijing will introduce additional stimulus measures to support economic growth. Meanwhile, the prospect of higher tariffs on Chinese goods under the upcoming Trump administration adds to concerns about the country’s economic outlook.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,917.11 +0.13 (+0.0022%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,408.47 +139.53 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 19,004.78 −55.53 (−0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,085.07 −13.95 (−0.17%)

USD Index 106.67 −0.47 (−0.44%)

News feed for: 2024.11.21

Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 07:10 (GMT+2);
Australia RBA Bullock Speech at 10:00 (GMT+2);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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