Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 18

RBA may hike rates as early as May. Natural gas prices plunge to a 4-month low

The US stock market demonstrated growth on Tuesday. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.76%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.77%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.09%. The main driver of optimism was a shift in the perception of risks associated with artificial intelligence: investors moved from fears regarding the displacement of traditional software to a realization of AI’s potential as a powerful supplement to existing business processes. The true victor of the day was AMD, whose shares soared by 8.8% (peaking at a 14% gain) following the announcement of a massive contract with Meta. This deal, bolstered by warrants for Meta to purchase AMD shares, confirms AMD’s status as a serious competitor to Nvidia.

Equity markets in Europe mostly declined on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) edged down by 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.26%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.54%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.04%. After a sharp fall the day before, the market entered a phase of cautious anticipation. Traders attempted to ignore the negative backdrop surrounding the AI sector, drawing optimism from the strong news out of Meta and awaiting tomorrow’s Nvidia report, which will be a defining moment for European tech stocks.

WTI oil prices recovered to $66.20 per barrel on Wednesday, breaking a two-day decline. The market has paused in anticipation of the third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva: positive signals from Tehran regarding a readiness for a deal are clashing with Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric. The primary factor of uncertainty remains security in the Strait of Hormuz, as any diplomatic failure threatens the transit of 20% of the world’s oil supply. Additional pressure on quotes is exerted by the implementation of the US 10% tariff. Traders fear that an escalation of trade wars and a possible hike in duties to 15% will slow global economic growth, inevitably leading to a drop in energy demand.

Silver prices (XAG) declined by nearly 1%, reaching $87.50 per ounce. Mass liquidation of assets on Chinese exchanges outweighed the global demand for safe-haven assets that arose amid the introduction of US 15% tariffs and expectations regarding the nuclear talks with Iran. The silver market remains in a correction phase following the shock collapse of 38% at the beginning of the month.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell below the $3 per MMBtu mark on Tuesday, reaching their lowest level since October. The primary factor for the decline was updated weather prognoses from NOAA, indicating abnormally high temperatures in the Western and Central states through the end of February. Weakening heating demand at the end of the winter season forced traders to reassess the likelihood of a fuel deficit, resulting in a sharp sell-off.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.87%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) showed a modest gain of 0.14%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.82%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.04%.
The economy of Hong Kong demonstrated robust growth of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its best performance in two years. Strengthening business confidence amid real estate market stabilization and the active implementation of AI technologies allowed the year to close with total GDP growth of 3.5%, significantly exceeding the 2024 result (2.6%). For 2026, growth rates are projected to remain in the range of 3.3-3.6%, provided that external trade frictions do not exert a critical impact on the logistics hub.

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.70 USD on Wednesday, reacting to unexpectedly high inflation data. The January figure of 3.8% (against projections of 3.7%) and an increase in core inflation to 3.4% confirmed market fears: price pressure in Australia remains persistent. Amid historically low unemployment and strong wage growth, these figures make the RBA the most “hawkish” among major central banks. Markets now see a 70% probability of a rate hike to 4.1% as early as May, with the prospect of another move in November.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,890.07 +52.32 (+0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,174.50 +370.44 (+0.76%)

DAX (DE40) 24,986.25 −5.72 (−0.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,680.59 −4.15 (−0.04%)

USD Index 97.87 +0.16% (+0.16%)

News feed for: 2026.02.25

Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2); – HKD (MED)
Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 10:40 (GMT+2); – AUD (LOW)
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Feb

GBP/USD Extends Gains for Fourth Consecutive Day as Investors Watch BoE Rate Outlook

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD continues to rise on Wednesday, reaching 1.3516.

Following recent comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, investors are seeking additional clarification on his decision to keep the rate unchanged at the last meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee left the rate unchanged, with a narrow margin.

The market expects two rate cuts in 2026, taking the rate down to 3.25%. However, the timing of the easing remains uncertain. If Bailey signals the possibility of a cut as early as March, the market could begin pricing in more than 50bps of easing this year.

An additional source of pressure stems from US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. The baseline tariff of 10% has already entered into force. However, it remains unclear when an increase to 15% might be introduced.

The focus is also on the by-election in the Gorton and Denton constituency in Manchester, which is seen as an important test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. Political uncertainty is adding to sterling volatility.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.3500 level. Today, an expansion towards 1.3560 is possible. Subsequently, a correction towards 1.3494 may follow. After completing this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. If it breaks to the upside, the next target would be 1.3622. If it breaks to the downside, the next target may be 1.3383. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and pointing upward.

On the H1 GBP/USD chart, the market formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3500 and, following an upside breakout, is developing a wave structure towards 1.3560. Subsequently, a downward move towards 1.3500 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the 50 level and pointing upward.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD extends its recovery for a fourth consecutive session as markets await clearer signals from BoE Governor Bailey on the timing of potential rate cuts. While the baseline scenario anticipates two reductions this year, any dovish surprise could trigger further repricing. Technically, the pair is building momentum within a broad consolidation range, with near-term resistance at 1.3560 and support at 1.3494. A sustained break above 1.3560 would open the door to 1.3622, while a failure could result in a retest of lower-range levels. Political uncertainty from the upcoming by-election and ongoing US trade policy risks add further volatility. The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish, but direction will depend on Bailey’s tone and market interpretation.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Feb

Final Approval Clears the Way for Full-Scale Uranium Push in Paraguay

Source: Streetwise Reports (2/23/26)

Vanguard Mining Corp. (UUU:CSE; UUUFF:OTC; SL51:FWB) received its final environmental licences for the Yuty PrometeoSan Jose Uranium Project in southeastern Paraguay. Read how the approvals complete the permitting process and coincide with Vanguards application for a Prospection Permit to advance uranium exploration.

Fraser Institute Jurisdiction Rating
Vanguard Mining Corp.

British Columbia (last modified 11/26/25)
Friendly Policies	67.42%
Best Practices Mineral Potential Index	85.45%
Socioeconomic Agreements/Community Development Conditions, aka Safety	40%
Political Stability	50%

Data from the
Fraser Institute’s Mining Survey

Vanguard Mining Corp. (UUU:CSE; UUUFF:OTC; SL51:FWB) announced that it has secured its final set of Environmental Licences from Paraguay’s Ministerio del Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (MADES), completing the licensing process for its 90,000-hectare Yuty Prometeo–San Jose Uranium Project in southeastern Paraguay.

The company reported that the Environmental Licences now cover the entire land position at Yuty Prometeo–San Jose, with no additional environmental approvals required. Concurrently, Vanguard has submitted an application for a Prospection Permit with Paraguay’s Vice Ministry of Mining and Energy (VMME), which is described as a critical step toward full-scale uranium exploration authorization.

This development coincides with Paraguay’s growing profile in the global critical minerals sector, highlighted by its participation alongside the United States in a high-level ministerial summit in Washington, D.C., hosted by the U.S. Department of State. The meeting on February 4 addressed cooperation on uranium, lithium, and rare earth element supply chains. Paraguay’s Deputy Minister of Mines and Energy, Mauricio Bejarano, cited rising global demand as a factor drawing international attention to the country.

David Greenway, Chief Executive Officer of Vanguard Mining, stated in a company news release, “The receipt of our final MADES Environmental Licences marks a significant permitting milestone and further advances the Yuty Prometeo–San Jose Uranium Project toward prospection authorization.”

According to the company, the project area spans four concessions — three San Jose and one Prometeo — within the Paraná Basin. The Prometeo Concession covers approximately 27,666 hectares and is adjacent to Uranium Energy Corp.’s (UEC) Yuty Project. Historical data referenced in the news release described uranium-bearing mineralization identified in seven of 27 drill holes completed on the Prometeo property, including one hole reporting values between 0.05% and 0.10% U₃O₈ across 107 meters. The San Jose concessions cover an additional 62,210 hectares. A radiometric car survey conducted over this area identified significant uranium anomalies.

Vanguard noted that all drill results are historical in nature and have not been independently verified. The company intends to complete confirmatory drilling to validate this information in accordance with NI 43-101.

Uranium Market Sees Rising Production and Tightening Supply

According to a February 2 report from Mining.com, uranium production forecasts increased as Kazatomprom projected 71.5 to 75.4 million pounds of U₃O₈ output, marking a 9% rise over the previous year. The company attributed the increase to ramp-up activities at its Budenovskoye joint venture in southern Kazakhstan. Analyst Alexander Pearce of BMO Capital Markets noted the projection was 6% higher than BMO’s internal estimates and commented that “the update could see some modest pressure on uranium prices via a slightly reduced supply deficit near-term.”

In a February 4 article published by Mining.com, Blair McBride reported that the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust purchased 250,000 pounds of uranium oxide, bringing its first-quarter total to 3.65 million pounds. That purchase contributed to a total inventory of 78.4 million pounds and marked Sprott’s second-highest quarterly acquisition in four years. The report noted that the uranium spot price fell from US$101.55 per pound to US$91.80 per pound during the same week.

Materials from Sprott.com released in February outlined broader sector dynamics. The firm stated there were 436 operational nuclear reactors globally, with 190 additional units either planned or under construction, based on data from the World Nuclear Association as of January 13. Sprott wrote that “global uranium production in 2024 covered less than 80% of reactor demand,” with the shortfall offset by inventory drawdowns and spot market activity. It also noted that uranium inventories at nuclear power plants had reached “strategic lows,” creating what the firm described as significant pent-up demand from utilities.

Sprott further explained that even if all existing and planned uranium mines operated at peak levels, they were not expected to meet projected reactor demand through 2045. The firm stated that this shortfall could reach 1.4 billion pounds under current scenarios and up to 3 billion pounds if global nuclear capacity were to triple. The report also highlighted that uranium and uranium miners had outperformed other major asset classes over the prior five-year period, based on internal performance tracking.

“Key Property of Interest”: Analyst Flags Vanguard’s Uranium Project as Standout Asset

¹In a December 23 technical commentary, John Newell of John Newell & Associates referred to Vanguard Mining Corp. as a situation where “the fundamentals, the asset base, and the technical picture are beginning to align.” He noted that the company held a diversified portfolio of uranium, copper, and gold assets across the Americas, with core uranium concessions in Paraguay’s Paraná Basin and base metals projects in British Columbia. He described the Yuty Prometeo Uranium Project as the company’s “key property of interest” and stated it had “the greatest potential to move Vanguard’s shares.”

Newell highlighted that the Prometeo Uno concession had returned uranium grades ranging from 0.05% to 0.10% U₃O₈ from 28 historical drill holes. He added that geophysical surveys and sampling suggested the property “aligns with the same regional trend” as known mineralization in the area. He called the setting “compelling” and pointed to upcoming confirmatory drilling as a “clear near-term catalyst that could materially de-risk the project.”

Regarding the company’s British Columbia assets, Newell stated that the Redonda Copper-Molybdenum Project and Brussels Creek Gold-Copper-Palladium Project were “prospective for porphyry-style systems.” He also noted that Vanguard held “an early-stage lithium brine project in Argentina” for exposure to the battery metals sector.

Newell acknowledged the company’s oversubscribed August 2025 financing and stated that Vanguard appeared “funded for upcoming exploration programs and reducing near-term financing risk.” He described the capital structure as “reasonable for a company at this stage and offers leverage to exploration success.”

From a technical perspective, he wrote that the stock’s chart showed “a long base forming after the sharp decline seen through late 2023 and early 2024,” along with a “progressive series of higher lows, accompanied by improving volume, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.” He identified several upside targets, including CA$0.32 (met), CA$0.50, CA$0.90, and a broader long-term target of CA$1.50.

Newell concluded, “With a tight share structure, experienced management, exposure to uranium and copper in proven jurisdictions, and a constructive technical setup, Vanguard Mining checks several boxes for speculative investors.” He assigned the company a “Speculative Buy rating.”

Upcoming Work and Regulatory Milestones

Vanguard Mining outlined several near-term programs and policy developments related to its uranium and copper-gold exploration assets in its investor presentation. In Paraguay, the company plans to conduct a confirmatory drill program. The objective of this program is to validate historical results and potentially align the concession with the adjacent uranium trend associated with UEC’s Yuty project. Vanguard noted that successful assays would support a maiden resource estimate pathway.

In British Columbia, the company has scheduled trenching and drilling at its Brussels Creek Project. These efforts are aimed at testing priority gold-copper targets identified through historical exploration. The company highlighted that the project’s proximity to infrastructure such as highways, power, and services may reduce exploration and development risk.

Additionally, the company’s August 2025 financing, which raised CA$2.32 million, was described in the investor presentation as providing funding for uranium exploration in Paraguay and gold-copper work in British Columbia.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Vanguard Mining Corp. (UUU:CSE; UUUFF:OTC; SL51:FWB)

Retail: 96.05%
Management & Insiders: 3.95%
Share Structure as of 2/18/2026

Market and policy catalysts identified in the company’s investor materials included increasing uranium spot prices, an expanding global fleet of nuclear reactors, and support from U.S. initiatives such as Section 232 tariffs on critical minerals. The company also pointed to rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence and data centers as a relevant factor supporting interest in nuclear energy.

Ownership and Share Structure²

3.95% of Vanguard Mining is owned by management and insiders.

The rest is retail.

Vanguard Mining Corp. has 76,306,621 shares outstanding and an estimated market capitalization of approximately US$12.36 million, based on recent trading prices. Shares trade in a 52-week range between US$0.06 and US$0.49.

Important Disclosures:

Vanguard Mining is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000. In addition, Vanguard Mining has a consulting relationship with Street Smart an affiliate of Streetwise Reports. Street Smart Clients pay a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Vanguard Mining.
James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

1. Disclosure for the quote from the John Newell article published on December 23, 2025

For the quoted article (published on December 23, 2025), the Company has paid Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, US$3,000.
Author Certification and Compensation: [John Newell of John Newell and Associates] was retained and compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart for writing this article. Mr. Newell holds a Chartered Investment Management (CIM) designation (2015) and a U.S. Portfolio Manager designation (2015). The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the companies discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly tied to the specific recommendations or views expressed.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

2. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Energy Financial News

24 Feb

EU and India begin freezing trade dialogues with the US over Trump’s new tariff initiative

By JustMarkets

On Monday, February 23, the US stock market was hit by a wave of sell-offs, resulting in a deep decline across major indices. By the end of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.66%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 1.04%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 1.13% lower. The primary pressure on the market came from a sharp shift in White House trade policy: after the Supreme Court blocked previous duties, Donald Trump utilized the rare mechanism of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, setting a global tariff at 15%. Investors fear that this measure, which remains in effect for 150 days without Congressional approval, will trigger full-scale trade wars, a concern already confirmed by the European Parliament’s decision to suspend work on a trade agreement with the US.

In parallel with political risks, the technology sector was struck by fears regarding the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence on established business models. IBM shares plummeted 13.1% as a reaction to Anthropic’s launch of new Claude Code tools capable of automating the modernization of legacy code (COBOL), threatening a significant portion of IBM’s consulting and mainframe business. Similar dynamics were observed in the financial sector: American Express shares fell 7.2% after the publication of a sensational report by Citrini Research, which predicts massive white-collar job cuts due to AI implementation, inevitably leading to a decline in consumer spending and transaction volumes.

On Monday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) declined to the 1.37 mark against the US dollar, holding near monthly lows. The currency’s dynamics reflect the market’s attempt to balance the sharp tightening of US trade policy against weakening domestic inflation expectations. Short-term optimism sparked by the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn previous duties was entirely neutralized by Donald Trump’s retaliatory move. On the commodities front, even a moderate strengthening of oil prices failed to support the “loonie.” Renewed protectionist risks and the threat of a large-scale trade confrontation with its largest partner outweigh any positive signals from the energy market.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 17.27 per US dollar, retreating from its mid-2024 peaks under the pressure of a new wave of American protectionism. The main factor for the decline was Donald Trump’s decision to invoke Section 122 of the Trade Act to introduce a 15% global tariff. This step, taken by bypassing the Supreme Court’s decision, creates serious risks for Mexico’s export model, as the 150-day tariff period could become a tool for heavy pressure on Mexico City regarding migration and security issues. Despite positive macroeconomic data from Mexico itself, where Q4 2025 GDP grew by 0.9% thanks to service sector resilience and industrial recovery, investors prefer to exit the peso.

Equity markets in Europe mostly declined on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.06%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.22%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.56%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.02%. The German market demonstrated weaker dynamics compared to other European platforms as investors reacted painfully to Donald Trump’s new tariff initiative. The situation is exacerbated by legal confusion. The European Parliament’s decision to freeze the ratification of the trade agreement with Washington until March triggered mass sell-offs in the Eurozone’s export-oriented industries. Investors are redistributing capital toward less volatile assets while awaiting official clarifications from Washington regarding the fate of existing transatlantic agreements.

WTI oil prices traded around $66.50 per barrel on Monday, holding near six-month highs. The market is in a state of tense anticipation, balancing signals of a possible diplomatic detente against threats of new trade barriers. Traders’ primary focus is on the meeting in Geneva at the end of the week, where the Iranian Foreign Minister and US Ambassador Steve Witkoff will attempt to find a way out of the nuclear impasse. Optimistic statements from Tehran regarding a reachable compromise have somewhat calmed investors; however, the risk of failed negotiations is still priced into current quotes.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) and the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade yesterday, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 2.53%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.61%. Market sentiment is largely defined by uncertainty surrounding Washington’s tariff policy. Donald Trump’s decision to introduce a 15% global tariff in response to the Supreme Court verdict and his threats against countries “playing games” with trade agreements are forcing investors to seek refuge in Chinese and Hong Kong protective government assets. Trump’s new flat rate may actually reduce the overall tariff burden on Chinese exports compared to previous “emergency” duties, which is preventing the market from entering a state of panic selling.

The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds decreased to 1.79% on Tuesday, February 24, returning to three-month lows. The return of investors after the Lunar New Year celebrations took place in an atmosphere of caution, caused by both external trade shocks and Beijing’s restrained stance. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its Loan Prime Rates (LPR) for the ninth consecutive time at 3.0% for one-year and 3.5% for five-year loans, confirming that authorities do not plan aggressive policy easing in the near term, preferring targeted support measures for specific sectors.

Also in the spotlight were sensational reports from Japanese media regarding hidden mechanisms for supporting the yen. It was revealed that in January, the US authorities, on their own initiative, conducted “rate checks”, a procedure that usually precedes actual currency interventions. This operation was led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Washington took this step without an official request from Tokyo, fearing that the political vacuum and volatility ahead of the recent general elections in Japan (held on February 8) could destabilize not only the Yen but also the global bond market.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,837.75 −71.76 (−1.04%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,804.06 −821.91 (−1.66%)

DAX (DE40) 24,991.97 −268.72 (−1.06%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,684.74 −2.15 (−0.02%)

USD Index 97.72 −0.08% (−0.08%)

News feed for: 2026.02.24

China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:15 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

24 Feb

USD/JPY in the Black as Investors Eye Geopolitical Flare-Up

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY rose to 154.91 on Tuesday. The yen surrendered the previous session’s gains, while the dollar found support despite uncertainty over US trade policy.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced his intention to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a Supreme Court decision that overturned his “reciprocal” duties. He also warned of tougher measures against countries that “play games” with existing trade agreements.

Tokyo urged Washington to ensure that the court’s decision does not harm Japanese companies and reaffirmed its commitment to the existing trade agreement with the US.

At the same time, Japanese media reported that US authorities held consultations last month on exchange rate policy to support the yen and are prepared to coordinate possible intervention at Japan’s request. The initiative was overseen by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent amid concerns that political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s general election could heighten market volatility.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the pair has formed a consolidation range around 154.00. It has now broken out to the upside, opening the way for a move towards 155.75. After reaching this level, a decline towards 151.80 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line holding above the zero level while turning clearly downward.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the pair has broken above 154.80 and is forming an upward wave structure targeting 155.75. Thereafter, a pullback to 154.70 cannot be ruled out. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line positioned above the 80 level and continuing to point firmly upward.

Conclusion

In summary, USD/JPY has resumed its upward momentum, breaking above recent consolidation as the dollar finds support despite escalating trade policy uncertainty. The market is weighing Trump’s aggressive tariff stance against signals that US authorities stand ready to support the yen if necessary.

Technically, the pair has cleared near-term resistance and is targeting 155.75, with indicators suggesting further short-term upside potential. However, the broader outlook remains clouded by geopolitical risks and the possibility of coordinated intervention should the yen weaken excessively. A sustained move above 155.75 would open the way towards 157.00, while a reversal below 154.70 could signal a return to range-bound trading.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Feb

Supreme Court rules Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs unlawful

By JustMarkets

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with gains. By the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) jumped by 0.47% (+0.38% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.69% (+1.10% for the week). The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.87% (+1.42% for the week). The positive dynamics were triggered by a Supreme Court decision that ruled the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs unlawful, sparking hopes for the return of approximately $175 billion to companies. Despite weak GDP data (+1.4%) and the President’s immediate promise to introduce a new 10% global tariff via executive order, investors focused on the short-term legal triumph. In the short term, traders are forced to balance optimism from court rulings against new regulatory risks that continue to pressure long-term yield expectations.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) declined to the 1.37 level against the US dollar, hitting a monthly low amid strengthening US bonds and a correction in the energy market. Despite the positive momentum from the US Supreme Court decision overturning global trade tariffs, Canada’s national currency came under pressure due to the widening yield gap with US assets. The Fed’s hawkish stance, supported by PCE inflation data at 3%, contrasts with the wait-and-see tactics of the Bank of Canada (BoC), which is holding the rate at 2.25% while the Domestic Consumer Price Index slows to 2.6%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated a confident rally, strengthening past the 17.15 per dollar mark, its best performance in a year and a half. The main driver of optimism was the US Supreme Court decision, which annulled the Trump administration’s global tariffs, thereby eliminating a critical risk for Mexico’s export sector. Investors remain focused on the policy of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), whose strategy of maintaining high interest rates continues to provide significant support to the peso amid fading trade uncertainty.

On Monday, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $65,000, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks. Pressure on the market intensified amid renewed concerns surrounding US tariff policy, which triggered volatility in global markets. Recently, Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have shown weak dynamics compared to other asset classes.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.87% (+1.09% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.39% (+2.31% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.94% (+2.47% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.56% (+2.30% for the week). European stock indices started the week with a decline amid intensifying trade confrontation with the US. Investors are reacting to Donald Trump’s decision to raise the announced global levy from 10% to 15%, the maximum level allowed under the 1974 law, after the US Supreme Court blocked his previous protectionist executive orders. The EU’s reaction was immediate: Brussels called on Washington to respect previously reached agreements and threatened to freeze the ratification of current trade agreements until legal clarifications are received from the American side. Despite assurances from US officials about maintaining the status quo for key partners, supply chain uncertainty is driving traders out of risky assets.

WTI oil prices ended the week with a confident gain of 5%, stabilizing around $66 per barrel. The main catalyst for the rally was a sharp increase in geopolitical risks: Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran and a massive buildup of the US military presence in the Middle East sparked fears regarding the stability of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Since Iran accounts for about 3% of global production, a potential conflict threatens significant volumes of crude, forcing investors to price in a high risk premium. Traders continue to closely monitor Tehran’s 15-day deadline, expecting further volatility depending on the outcome of nuclear negotiations.

US natural gas (XNG) prices ended Friday’s trading with a sharp jump above $3.1 per MMBtu, gaining more than 4% amid expected cold weather in the Northeast. Despite this local spike, quotes showed negative dynamics for the full week, losing about 4% in value. The main pressure on the market is exerted by a significant increase in production across the Lower 48 states, which in February closely approached the historical highs of December, reaching 108.7 billion cubic feet per day, offsetting concerns about supply shortages. Even maintaining record LNG export volumes cannot fully compensate for excessive domestic production and subdued heating demand, which limits the potential for a long-term price recovery.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.68% over the trading week, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade due to the Lunar New Year celebrations, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) depreciated by 3.06% during the short week, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.52% over the 5 days.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index showed an impressive 2.4% gain at Monday’s opening, reaching 27,056 points. Optimism swept through all sectors amid expectations for the reopening of mainland China markets after the Lunar New Year holiday. Investors interpreted Trump’s new 15% tariff as a measure that could unexpectedly play into Beijing’s hands by strengthening China’s position in global trade alliances. The Hong Kong market is currently acting as a leading indicator, pricing in a scenario where pragmatism in US-China relations outweighs tariff threats.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,909.51 +47.62 (+0.69%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,625.97 +230.81 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 25,260.69 +217.12 +(0.87%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,686.89 +59.85 (+0.56%)

USD Index 97.79 −0.14% (−0.14%)

News feed for: 2026.02.23

Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2); – SGD (MED)
German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Mexico GDP (q/q) at 14:00 (GMT+2); – MXN (MED)
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2). – EUR (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Copper Speculator Bets rebound after 7 Down Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,458 contracts) with Silver (1,048 contracts), Steel (344 contracts) and Platinum (263 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-97 contracts) and with Palladium (-21 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Copper Bets rebound after 7 Down Weeks

Highlighting the speculator bets this week was copper, which rebounded with a weekly gain of +13,458 net contracts. Copper had seen lower speculator bets in the preceding seven consecutive weeks, which had dropped the Copper speculator position to the lowest level since October.

This week’s positive rebound shoots the overall net speculator position back up over +59,000 contracts, the most bullish level since December 30th. Overall, Copper speculator positions have been consistently in a bullish standing, dating back to March 5th of 2024, a span of 102 consecutive bullish weeks.

Silver leads Metals Markets Price Performance this week

Silver bounced back this week with a 5.62% gain over the past five days. This was followed by Platinum which rose by 4.94% over that same period.

Gold was higher by 3.82% while Palladium showed a rise of 3.67%, and rounding out the gainers was Copper with a 1.86% increase.

Steel was virtually unchanged on the week with a -0.03% dip.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

On the downside, Gold (36 percent), Platinum (42 percent) and Silver (42 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (36.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.3 percent)
Silver (42.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (41.0 percent)
Copper (88.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (76.0 percent)
Platinum (41.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.2 percent)
Palladium (95.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.3 percent)
Steel (96.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (95.1 percent)

Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (12 percent) and Copper (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-28 percent), Platinum (-14 percent) and Silver (-7 percent) are the leaders of the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-27.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-29.2 percent)
Silver (-7.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.5 percent)
Copper (1.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.0 percent)
Platinum (-14.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-14.9 percent)
Palladium (-0.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.2 percent)
Steel (11.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 159,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -97 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	21.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	70.0	3.7
– Net Position:	159,915	-196,782	36,867
– Gross Longs:	213,432	88,237	51,821
– Gross Shorts:	53,517	285,019	14,954
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	57.3	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	30.2	-22.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	27.9	21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	60.1	7.7
– Net Position:	24,003	-42,347	18,344
– Gross Longs:	36,626	36,729	28,514
– Gross Shorts:	12,623	79,076	10,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	54.3	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	11.6	-22.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 59,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	33.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	60.6	3.6
– Net Position:	59,331	-73,886	14,555
– Gross Longs:	89,699	91,573	24,327
– Gross Shorts:	30,368	165,459	9,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	6.8	89.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.6	2.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	28.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	55.5	4.3
– Net Position:	12,347	-18,536	6,189
– Gross Longs:	28,826	19,913	9,175
– Gross Shorts:	16,479	38,449	2,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	58.6	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	13.8	4.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	36.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	45.9	7.8
– Net Position:	492	-1,634	1,142
– Gross Longs:	7,577	6,066	2,447
– Gross Shorts:	7,085	7,700	1,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	7.7	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	4.3	-21.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	56.8	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	90.0	0.5
– Net Position:	11,736	-12,085	349
– Gross Longs:	14,362	20,654	537
– Gross Shorts:	2,626	32,739	188
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.9	3.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-11.5	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

21 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (55,279 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (53,282 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (16,688 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (6,517 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-272,311 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-64,826 contracts), the Fed Funds (-56,451 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-42,478 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4,642 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

10-Year Note Leads Price Returns this week

Leading the price performance over the last five days, the 10-Year Note rose by a modest 0.27% followed by the US Treasury Bond which rose by 0.20%. The 5-Year Bond was marginally higher by 0.17%, and the 2-Year Bond was a tick higher at 0.07%.

The 1-Month SOFR was up a tick by 0.03% while the Fed Funds was virtually unchanged at -0.01%. The 3-Month SOFR was also lower by -0.06%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (23 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently while the next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (23.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (31.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (26.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (39.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (83.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (68.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (85.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (83.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (68.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (69.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (61.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (58.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (36.4 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (44 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-55.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-50.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (7.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (43.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (37.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (49.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-20.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-13.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -231,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -56,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -174,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	66.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	56.7	1.5
– Net Position:	-231,181	212,864	18,317
– Gross Longs:	169,495	1,422,169	51,309
– Gross Shorts:	400,676	1,209,305	32,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	75.1	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.6	55.9	-1.7

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -734,430 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -272,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -462,119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	58.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	53.4	0.3
– Net Position:	-734,430	732,874	1,556
– Gross Longs:	1,560,490	7,900,000	45,620
– Gross Shorts:	2,294,920	7,167,126	44,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	77.5	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.1	20.1	0.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -95,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	61.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	54.4	0.0
– Net Position:	-95,055	95,078	-23
– Gross Longs:	275,903	851,086	171
– Gross Shorts:	370,958	756,008	194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	38.9	66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.3	-37.2	-0.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,234,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 55,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	75.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	52.0	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,234,408	1,125,715	108,693
– Gross Longs:	707,467	3,577,502	230,853
– Gross Shorts:	1,941,875	2,451,787	122,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	76.5	43.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-10.2	-10.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,157,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -42,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,114,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	80.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	52.8	4.2
– Net Position:	-2,157,242	2,019,604	137,638
– Gross Longs:	541,351	5,943,599	451,754
– Gross Shorts:	2,698,593	3,923,995	314,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	75.3	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-6.8	-8.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -877,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -64,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -813,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	78.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	63.9	6.6
– Net Position:	-877,853	806,961	70,892
– Gross Longs:	500,097	4,461,711	449,456
– Gross Shorts:	1,377,950	3,654,750	378,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	74.2	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-0.5	-11.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -100,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 53,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	78.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	68.9	13.9
– Net Position:	-100,029	236,624	-136,595
– Gross Longs:	283,246	2,017,361	222,759
– Gross Shorts:	383,275	1,780,737	359,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	37.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.7	-19.9	-68.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	71.6	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	79.7	6.5
– Net Position:	6,425	-147,788	141,363
– Gross Longs:	207,041	1,315,962	261,044
– Gross Shorts:	200,616	1,463,750	119,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.6	1.4	82.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-10.7	16.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -275,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -270,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	71.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-275,188	253,624	21,564
– Gross Longs:	153,460	1,860,075	197,124
– Gross Shorts:	428,648	1,606,451	175,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	39.3	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	10.0	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Feb

COT Energy Charts: WTI Crude Speculator Bets rise to highest level since August

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (23,529 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (80 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-13,947 contracts), Heating Oil (-4,050 contracts), Gasoline (-1,214 contracts) and with Brent Oil (-185 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

WTI Crude Speculator Bets rise to highest level since August

Leading the energy markets for speculative bets this week was WTI Crude Oil, which rose by over +23,000 contracts on the week. This was the fifth week out of the past six that the WTI net large speculative positions improved.

This recent positive sentiment has pushed the overall net speculative standing above the +100,000 contract level for the first time since September. This week’s speculative position (+141,343 net contracts) is now at the highest standing since August 5th of 2025, a span of 28 weeks.

Heating Oil and Brent Oil lead the Energy Market Price Performances on the Week

Leading the energy markets over the past week was Heating Oil with a 7.55% gain. Brent Crude Oil was not far behind with a 6.27% increase, while WTI Crude Oil also advanced by 5.85%. Gasoline was higher by 4.70% and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 3.03% uptick on the week.

Natural Gas was the only market over the last five trading periods that was lower with a -3.38% decrease.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gasoline & Heating Oil

On the downside, Natural Gas (5.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Brent Oil (29.4 percent) and then WTI Crude (32.7 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (32.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (25.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (29.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (29.7 percent)
Natural Gas (5.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (15.1 percent)
Gasoline (85.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (86.4 percent)
Heating Oil (63.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (55.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (55.0 percent)

WTI Crude & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that WTI Crude (27.1 percent) and Gasoline (20.7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-14.2 percent) and Brent Oil (-12.0 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-4.6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (27.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (17.2 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-12.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-12.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-14.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-11.9 percent)
Gasoline (20.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (18.7 percent)
Heating Oil (-4.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (2.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (13.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (25.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 141,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	41.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	49.7	2.0
– Net Position:	141,343	-181,629	40,286
– Gross Longs:	321,645	855,378	81,123
– Gross Shorts:	180,302	1,037,007	40,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	61.3	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-33.9	55.5

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	41.8	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	28.7	2.3
– Net Position:	-36,267	35,690	577
– Gross Longs:	59,005	113,992	6,755
– Gross Shorts:	95,272	78,302	6,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	73.8	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	15.9	-22.6

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -185,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -171,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	38.2	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	27.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-185,812	174,798	11,014
– Gross Longs:	205,853	615,910	53,277
– Gross Shorts:	391,665	441,112	42,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	95.1	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	14.1	-1.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	46.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	68.2	3.2
– Net Position:	88,742	-101,984	13,242
– Gross Longs:	117,261	214,865	28,300
– Gross Shorts:	28,519	316,849	15,058
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.1	9.8	97.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-27.7	50.6

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	48.6	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	58.0	7.5
– Net Position:	15,402	-35,615	20,213
– Gross Longs:	63,052	183,343	48,508
– Gross Shorts:	47,650	218,958	28,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	32.6	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	-7.6	31.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 80 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	69.3	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	64.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-10,939	10,174	765
– Gross Longs:	54,901	136,855	790
– Gross Shorts:	65,840	126,681	25
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	31.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	42.9	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-19.1	53.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

21 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (45,457 contracts) with Wheat (16,200 contracts), Corn (10,495 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,974 contracts), Live Cattle (5,979 contracts) and Cocoa (1,328 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-18,191 contracts), Lean Hogs (-15,873 contracts), Cotton (-4,407 contracts), Soybean Oil (-1,306 contracts) and with Coffee (-1,071 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Wheat leads Price Price Performance Leaders

Price performance leaders were Wheat and Soybean Oil this week. Wheat was the highest riser in the past five days with a 3.89% gain and Soybean Oil was higher by 3.25% in the same period.

Lean Hogs rose by 2.58%, Cotton was higher by 2.35%, and Sugar also got a boost by over 2% on the week. Live Cattle rose by approximately 1% and Soybean Meal saw a gain of 0.62%. Soybeans and Corn were virtually unchanged on the week.

Leading the declines on the week was Cocoa, which dropped sharply by approximately -15% and followed by Coffee which was also lower by -4.87%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybeans, Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybeans (86 percent), Lean Hogs (74 percent) and Soybean Oil (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Wheat (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cocoa (1 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (35.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.7 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.4 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (37.2 percent)
Soybeans (86.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (76.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (37.2 percent)
Live Cattle (68.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (73.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (85.3 percent)
Cotton (5.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.5 percent)
Cocoa (1.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (55.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (41.6 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (60 percent) and Wheat (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (19 percent), Lean Hogs (18 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-19 percent), Coffee (-18 percent) and Cotton (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.7 percent)
Sugar (-18.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.3 percent)
Coffee (-17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-10.7 percent)
Soybeans (19.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (59.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (10.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.8 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.1 percent)
Cocoa (-19.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-20.6 percent)
Wheat (29.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	46.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	45.3	9.3
– Net Position:	-7,835	25,990	-18,155
– Gross Longs:	336,717	831,608	146,498
– Gross Shorts:	344,552	805,618	164,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	61.1	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	10.3	0.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -253,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	56.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	32.7	8.6
– Net Position:	-253,592	265,824	-12,232
– Gross Longs:	171,981	625,812	82,477
– Gross Shorts:	425,573	359,988	94,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	17.6	-7.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	42.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	50.0	5.0
– Net Position:	12,860	-12,616	-244
– Gross Longs:	47,502	65,722	7,517
– Gross Shorts:	34,642	78,338	7,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	66.0	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.4	-22.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 191,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	47.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	63.1	8.5
– Net Position:	191,791	-157,771	-34,020
– Gross Longs:	274,388	463,652	49,618
– Gross Shorts:	82,597	621,423	83,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.2	16.5	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-15.4	-54.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	47.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	55.8	3.7
– Net Position:	51,971	-62,880	10,909
– Gross Longs:	155,039	335,704	37,409
– Gross Shorts:	103,068	398,584	26,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	25.8	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	59.6	-62.7	67.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	60.7	5.5
– Net Position:	18,346	-36,473	18,127
– Gross Longs:	109,382	283,091	47,273
– Gross Shorts:	91,036	319,564	29,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	61.3	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-14.4	37.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 91,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	31.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	54.7	12.3
– Net Position:	91,735	-78,353	-13,382
– Gross Longs:	150,433	102,308	27,276
– Gross Shorts:	58,698	180,661	40,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	26.8	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-11.5	-5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	32.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	47.6	8.3
– Net Position:	67,022	-57,027	-9,995
– Gross Longs:	147,998	119,956	20,920
– Gross Shorts:	80,976	176,983	30,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	30.3	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-16.8	-21.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	46.2	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	30.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-55,733	54,389	1,344
– Gross Longs:	99,583	156,452	15,630
– Gross Shorts:	155,316	102,063	14,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	92.3	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.3	-19.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	48.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	37.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-17,618	17,159	459
– Gross Longs:	29,310	74,716	11,431
– Gross Shorts:	46,928	57,557	10,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	98.6	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	17.9	10.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	35.5	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	23.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-55,058	58,384	-3,326
– Gross Longs:	122,049	167,707	32,177
– Gross Shorts:	177,107	109,323	35,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	46.2	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-26.4	-37.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

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Archive for Financial News – Page 18

News feed for: 2026.02.25

Fraser Institute Jurisdiction Rating Vanguard Mining Corp.

Data from the Fraser Institute’s Mining Survey

Uranium Market Sees Rising Production and Tightening Supply

“Key Property of Interest”: Analyst Flags Vanguard’s Uranium Project as Standout Asset

Upcoming Work and Regulatory Milestones

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Ownership and Share Structure2

News feed for: 2026.02.24

Technical Analysis

Conclusion

News feed for: 2026.02.23

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

Copper Bets rebound after 7 Down Weeks

Silver leads Metals Markets Price Performance this week

Metals Data:

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

10-Year Note Leads Price Returns this week

Bonds Data:

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

WTI Crude Speculator Bets rise to highest level since August

Heating Oil and Brent Oil lead the Energy Market Price Performances on the Week

Energy Data:

Strength Scores led by Gasoline & Heating Oil

WTI Crude & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Natural Gas Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Wheat

Wheat leads Price Price Performance Leaders

Soft Commodities Data:

Strength Scores led by Soybeans, Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Fraser Institute Jurisdiction Rating
Vanguard Mining Corp.

Data from the
Fraser Institute’s Mining Survey

Ownership and Share Structure²