Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 167

EURUSD Sustains Strength Near Six-Week Highs

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair remains steadfast near 1.0710 on Tuesday, maintaining proximity to the six-week highs set the previous day.

The U.S. dollar has seen a tempered performance, influenced by recent U.S. labor market statistics for October and the resultant stock market adjustments. The data pointed to pockets of weakness in the employment sector, leading investors to infer that the cooling may be an effect of tighter credit and monetary policies. Consequently, there has been a recalibration of expectations regarding the trajectory of future Federal Reserve rate hikes.

In detail, the U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%, slightly higher than the previous 3.8%. Nonfarm payrolls showed an increase of 150 thousand, which was shy of the forecasted 178 thousand. Additionally, the average wage increment was a modest 0.2% month-over-month, missing the anticipated mark.

Market sentiment now appears to lean towards the belief that the current interest rates may represent the zenith of the present monetary tightening cycle.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart for EUR/USD, the currency pair has attained the correctional target at 1.0755. The trend now seems to be tilting downwards, with a trajectory set towards the 1.0655 level. A consolidation phase around this mark is probable. A break below this consolidation could signal a further decline to 1.0633, and potentially, should this support give way, a fall to 1.0515 could be on the horizon. The MACD indicator suggests a peak formation, with its signal line at the highs and anticipating a downturn.

The H1 chart reveals a continuation of the downward wave targeting 1.0655. Should the pair touch this level, a corrective move upwards to around 1.0700 might ensue. Subsequent to this correction, the market may witness a renewed descent towards 1.0633. The Stochastic oscillator provides technical affirmation for this bearish outlook, with its signal line dropping below 50 and aiming for the 20 level.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Nov

SPX500 _m in “impasse” after stunning rally

By ForexTime

SPX500_m printed a doji candlestick on Monday
Doji candlestick reveals traders’ indecision
Bulls see impasse as calm before surge to 4400
Countertrend opportunity beckons for bears
Benchmark stock index still exposed to US Treasury yields moves

SPX500_m may revert to one of its widely-followed moving averages, following the mute session on Monday 6th November.

Note how this index posted a doji on the daily timeframe yesterday.

A doji candlestick typically reveals traders’ indecision.

Hence, Monday’s candlestick formation on the daily timeframe implies that traders are on the hunt for a fresh reason, either to extend the recent surge, or pull back.

SPX500_m bulls may have entered an impasse after last Friday’s (November 3rd) breakout of a downward sloping channel drawn from the September 14th close .

The index is currently sitting well above its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) and the bears may see an opportunity to retest these key support areas:

50-day SMA
4339.0: the 78.6 Fibonacci level
4313.7: downward channel resistance (now acting as support)
4289.2: 21-day SMA converging with the golden 61.8 Fibonacci level

A break back into the downward-sloping channel, with a solid close below its golden 61.8 Fibonacci level at 4289.0, may see a further decline in the SPX500_m where bears may set sights on new lows below 4106.0.

The Fibonacci retracement level is drawn from the October 12th high of 4402 to the October 27th low of 4106.0.

From a bullish perspective, this impasse may be the calm before another raging rally.

The S&P 500 may persist with its gains if investors keep hold of the perception that US bond yields have peaked and could unwind further.

A failure to retest the support areas mentioned above, or a failure to hold a close below 4313.7, may see SPX500_m bulls aim for highs above 4400.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

07 Nov

RoboMarkets Wins “Best Trading Conditions” Accolade at World Economic Magazine Awards 2023

European broker RoboMarkets is proud to announce its recent triumph at the prestigious World Economic Magazine Awards 2023 ceremony. The company was honoured with the “Best Trading Conditions (Europe)” award, recognising the unparalleled trading conditions it provides to its clients.

What sets RoboMarkets’ trading conditions ahead in Europe?

A diverse range of trading instruments: RoboMarkets offers an extensive array of US stocks and ETFs comprising over 3,000 trading and investment instruments. The commission for one-way stock and ETF transactions (buying or selling) starts at a mere 0.009 USD per share for standard accounts. Moreover, commission-free accounts are also available.

Cutting-edge trading platforms: RoboMarkets equips its clients with a broad range of advanced trading solutions, including its proprietary web platforms R StocksTrader and R WebTrader, along with the mobile app R MobileTrader. Clients also have the flexibility to harness the industry-leading trading terminals, MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5.

Lightning-fast order execution: RoboMarkets ensures that clients’ transactions are processed in as little as 0.1 seconds, ensuring rapid trade execution.

Tight spreads: The company also offers narrow spreads, starting at 0 points for ECN and Prime accounts.

RoboMarkets takes pride in its continuous dedication to enhancing its trading conditions and commitment, making it possible for clients to achieve their financial goals. The “Best Trading Conditions (Europe)” award from the World Economic Magazine Awards 2023 is an acknowledgement of the company’s remarkable contributions in this field.

About RoboMarkets

RoboMarkets is a financial brokerage company operating under CySEC license No. 191/13. RoboMarkets offers investment services in many European countries and provides traders working in financial markets with access to its proprietary platforms. Visit www.robomarkets.com to find out more about the Company’s products and activities.

“Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69.88% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.”

Finance Press Release Financial News

06 Nov

RoboForex Wins “Best Partner Program” Award at World Economic Magazine Awards 2023

RoboForex, a company that offers brokerage services in financial markets, is proud to announce its recent victory at the industry-renowned World Economic Magazine Awards 2023 ceremony. The company has earned the prestigious “Best Partner Program” award for its outstanding achievements in this field.

The RoboForex Partner Programme was acknowledged as the best in its category among several other international businesses, and this recognition is well-deserved. RoboForex Partners enjoy unique advantages that make this programme stand out:

1. VIP and Expert programmes

RoboForex provides access to two types of programmes – VIP and Expert. The VIP programme is designed for Partners who actively attract clients. It allows Partners to earn up to 70% of the company’s income from first-level clients and 10% from sub-partners for the activity of second-level clients they attract. The Expert programme is suitable for those who create a partner network with several levels, allowing earnings from 35% to 10% of the company’s income from various-level sub-partners.

2. Loyalty programme

RoboForex Partners can receive additional payments of up to 20% of the total partner award, depending on its volume from the previous month. Partners can earn up to 84% of the company’s total income, making this offer unique in the market.

3. Affiliate accounts

Affiliate accounts enable Partners to earn up to 70% of RoboForex’s income from trading operations conducted by clients. These accounts are designed for Partners who offer additional services and information to their clients.

RoboForex also has several other advantages, including:

Round-the-clock information support for Partner businesses
A Personal Members Area with banners, informers, and other advertising content for Partners’ online platforms
No restrictions on the maximum size of the Partner reward
Partner rewards are paid for all the trades of attracted clients without exception

The “Best Partner Program” award from the World Economic Magazine reaffirms RoboForex’s position as a leader in the industry, committed to delivering quality and innovation in the realm of partner programmes. RoboForex will continue refining its programme, ensuring Partners maximise their profits.

View detailed information about the RoboForex partner programme on our official website.

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

Finance Press Release Financial News

06 Nov

The Bank of Japan is once again adopting a more dovish bias. The Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing to raise the rate

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.66% (+4.68% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.94% (+5.29% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.38% (+5.71% for the week) on Friday. All three indices closed in positive territory and hit their monthly highs. A weak US unemployment report supported speculation after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting that the Fed’s rate hiking regime is over.

The US unemployment report released on Friday showed weaker-than-expected labor market dynamics. The US employment number for October rose by 150,000, which was weaker than expectations of 180,000. In addition, the September data was revised downward to 297,000 from 336,000. October’s US unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to a nearly 2-year high of 3.9%, indicating a slight weakening of the labor market versus expectations of an unchanged 3.8%. A positive for inflation was the 0.2% m/m increase in average hourly earnings in October, which was slightly weaker than expectations of 0.3%.

Friday’s ISM Services Business Activity Index for October fell by 1.8 points to 51.8, which was weaker than expectations of a decline to 53.0. At the same time, the final October S&P US services PMI was revised downward. The PMI reports indicate some slowdown in the US services sector.

Equity markets in Europe traded without any unified dynamics on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30% (+2.83% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.19% (+3.23% for the week) on Friday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.36% (+3.78% for the week), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.39% (+1.73% for the week).

The Eurozone unemployment rate for September rose by 0.1 points to 6.5%, indicating a slightly weaker labor market compared to expectations of an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.4%. Germany’s trade report showed weakness in the economy, with exports for September down by 2.4% m/m and imports down by 1.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of 2.0% and 0.1%, respectively.

Tensions continue to rise not only in the Middle East but globally as the conflict between Israel and the Gaza Strip continues to intensify. As each side continues to call on their potential allies, the likelihood of a larger conflict could increase. If this happens, we could begin to see sell-offs in stock markets and rising oil and gold prices.

Asian markets were predominantly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 4.02% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.35% over five trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 2.55%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 3.12%. Most Asian indices rose sharply on Monday as weaker-than-expected US jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve has ended its rate hike cycle, while attention also shifted to upcoming economic data from China.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing to raise interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday, following signs of renewed inflation and some hawkish comments from central bank officials. The RBA is expected to raise its target money rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% as stronger-than-expected third-quarter inflation data released in October prompted a number of analysts to adjust their expectations. Australian banks ANZ and Westpac pushed back their November rate hike forecasts from December, while UBS and ING also expect a rate hike at the RBA’s November 7 meeting.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said on Monday that the central bank needs to have more confidence that wages will continue to rise (rising wages lead to higher prices for services, which will fuel inflation), and as the economy remains strong, it is premature to think about an exit from accommodative policy.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,358.34 +40.56 (+0.94%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,061.32 +222.24 (+0.66%)

DAX (DE40) 15,189.25 +45.65 (+0.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,417.73 −28.80 (−0.39%)

USD Index 105.07 +0.05 (+0.05%)

News feed for 2023.11.06:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 06:10 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Nov

Trade of the Week: Gold hovers near $2k ahead of Powell

By ForexTime

Gold kicks off Monday on shaky note amid risk-on mood
Fed speeches + Powell may influence precious metal
Gold bullish but RSI overbought on daily charts
Key levels of interest at $1968, $2000 and $2010

Gold prices have kicked off the new week on a wobbly note despite punching above the psychological $2000 level last Friday.

The precious metal jumped almost $15 within minutes after the US jobs report printed weaker than expected last week. With the US economy adding 150,000 jobs in October compared to the 180,000 forecast, and previous months numbers revised lower – bets jumped around the Fed not raising rates further.

While rising hopes around no more Fed hikes is good news for zero-yielding gold, this has also boosted overall risk sentiment – capping upside gains as investors shop for riskier assets.

Nevertheless, gold is still up more than 8% since the Hamas attacks on Israel with prices hovering near the psychological $2000 level. Taking a quick look at the technical picture, prices are bullish on the weekly charts but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowly approaching overbought conditions.

Zooming out on the monthly chart, prices remain in a very wide range with key resistance at $2000 and support at $1800.

Fun fact: Gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level.

Although this is a much quieter week on the risk calendar, some events could impact gold over the next few days:

Fed speeches + Powell

The week is jampacked with speeches from numerous Fed speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

Investors will be looking for fresh clues on the Fed’s interest rate path, especially when considering how the central bank has not fully ruled out future hikes. While Powell has dropped hints about the Fed done with hikes, he has also warned that there was still much work to be done on inflation.

After last Friday’s jobs report, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December is now at single digits. Interestingly, traders have priced in a rate cut by June 2024.

Gold prices may edge higher if Powell and Co. adopt a dovish tone and hint that the Fed is done with hikes. However, gains could be capped if these remarks support risk sentiment.
Any unexpected hawkish cues from Fed speeches that spark a rebound in dollar and Treasury yields may drag gold prices away from the psychological $2000 level.

Geopolitical risks

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East remain a major element of uncertainty for global markets.

Should fears intensify over a potential spillover from the Israel-Hamas conflict, this could spark a fresh wave of risk aversion, sending investors towards safe-haven destinations like gold. It’s not only the developments in the Middle East but also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that could fan fears about a global recession. Although the focus seems to have shifted back towards interest rates, geopolitics may play a role in shaping gold’s outlook.

Should tensions in the Middle East hit risk sentiment, this could provide room for gold to push higher.
Any fresh signs of easing geopolitical tensions could boost overall risk sentiment, dragging gold lower as a result.

Technical forces: breakout?

There seems to be a fierce tug of war around the $2000 level as bulls and bears fight for control.

The scales of power swing in favour of bulls on the daily charts with technical indicators signalling further upside. Prices are above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD is trading above zero. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that prices are overbought on the daily timeframe. Key support can be found around $1968 with resistance at $2010 but the pivotal level remains at $2000.

A strong daily close above $2000 may provide the foundation for bulls to target $2010 and $2018, respectively.
Should prices remain capped below $2000, this could trigger a decline back towards $1968 and $1945.

Currently, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 76% chance that Gold will trade within the $1956.63 – $2024.73 range this week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals

05 Nov

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (27,807 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (27,106 contracts) also recording a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets were the 5-Year Bonds (-182,686 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-64,336 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-38,841 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-19,143 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-11,136 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-2,438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,506,359	98	244,972	85	-244,907	15	-65	88
FedFunds	2,028,290	91	-178,027	31	201,942	73	-23,915	44
2-Year	4,188,473	99	-1,435,448	0	1,312,083	100	123,365	95
Long T-Bond	1,377,938	83	-155,381	29	101,237	47	54,144	88
10-Year	4,691,536	88	-627,698	22	531,947	73	95,751	94
5-Year	5,746,137	98	-1,191,589	5	1,110,941	92	80,648	91

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (85 percent) leads the bond markets this week and the only market over 50 percent currently.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (36.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (48.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (37.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (84.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (87.1 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bond (7 percent) and the Fed Funds (7 percent) are the next positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-22 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-13 percent) following next.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (6.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-4.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-12.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-13.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (7.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (17.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-21.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-19.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (22.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-2.0 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 244,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -38,841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	56.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	58.9	0.4
– Net Position:	244,972	-244,907	-65
– Gross Longs:	2,164,995	5,947,333	42,010
– Gross Shorts:	1,920,023	6,192,240	42,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	14.9	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	14.9	3.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -178,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -205,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	76.0	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	66.0	2.6
– Net Position:	-178,027	201,942	-23,915
– Gross Longs:	158,853	1,540,620	28,230
– Gross Shorts:	336,880	1,338,678	52,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	72.7	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-7.3	3.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,435,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,424,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	82.5	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	51.1	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,435,448	1,312,083	123,365
– Gross Longs:	408,762	3,453,960	266,889
– Gross Shorts:	1,844,210	2,141,877	143,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	94.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.6	3.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,191,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -182,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	83.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	64.0	5.6
– Net Position:	-1,191,589	1,110,941	80,648
– Gross Longs:	469,045	4,790,920	403,102
– Gross Shorts:	1,660,634	3,679,979	322,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	92.0	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	13.7	3.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -627,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -64,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -563,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	76.1	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	64.7	7.8
– Net Position:	-627,698	531,947	95,751
– Gross Longs:	572,295	3,568,418	461,152
– Gross Shorts:	1,199,993	3,036,471	365,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	72.7	94.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-14.6	11.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -252,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	63.2	12.6
– Net Position:	-252,307	283,428	-31,121
– Gross Longs:	196,655	1,555,303	222,295
– Gross Shorts:	448,962	1,271,875	253,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	94.9	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	9.2	43.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -155,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	76.2	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	68.8	10.7
– Net Position:	-155,381	101,237	54,144
– Gross Longs:	100,784	1,049,386	202,248
– Gross Shorts:	256,165	948,149	148,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	47.1	87.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-20.1	7.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -336,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 27,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -363,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	82.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	63.0	9.4
– Net Position:	-336,440	307,001	29,439
– Gross Longs:	90,876	1,290,048	176,509
– Gross Shorts:	427,316	983,047	147,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	48.8	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-22.0	-9.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

05 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (14,040 contracts) with Platinum (11,306 contracts), Copper (3,599 contracts), Steel (2,869 contracts) and Palladium (987 contracts) also coming along with positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Silver with a decrease of -4,121 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	475,808	25	163,425	49	-182,707	53	19,282	31
Silver	126,549	15	20,211	47	-33,139	54	12,928	38
Copper	222,566	60	-17,161	16	18,395	87	-1,234	11
Palladium	22,943	100	-10,253	8	10,163	92	90	47
Platinum	74,768	65	10,826	41	-14,186	64	3,360	13

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Gold (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (8.2 percent) and Copper (16 percent) are at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (49.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (42.8 percent)
Silver (47.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.0 percent)
Copper (16.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.9 percent)
Platinum (40.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (14.5 percent)
Palladium (8.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.7 percent)
Steel (89.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.9 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (12 percent) and Steel (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.2 percent)
Silver (7.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (-0.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.3 percent)
Platinum (1.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (-0.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.5 percent)
Steel (10.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 163,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	22.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	60.7	5.4
– Net Position:	163,425	-182,707	19,282
– Gross Longs:	261,053	105,971	44,792
– Gross Shorts:	97,628	288,678	25,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	53.4	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-11.5	4.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	32.0	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	58.1	10.2
– Net Position:	20,211	-33,139	12,928
– Gross Longs:	48,025	40,441	25,863
– Gross Shorts:	27,814	73,580	12,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	53.7	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-4.1	-9.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	36.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	28.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-17,161	18,395	-1,234
– Gross Longs:	69,909	81,000	14,745
– Gross Shorts:	87,070	62,605	15,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	86.9	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	5.0	-32.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.2	22.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	41.6	5.1
– Net Position:	10,826	-14,186	3,360
– Gross Longs:	44,291	16,925	7,145
– Gross Shorts:	33,465	31,111	3,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	64.1	13.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	0.9	-17.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	51.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.9	7.6	7.5
– Net Position:	-10,253	10,163	90
– Gross Longs:	5,096	11,915	1,807
– Gross Shorts:	15,349	1,752	1,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	91.8	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.3	13.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	76.7	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	62.6	1.7
– Net Position:	-2,600	2,531	69
– Gross Longs:	3,103	13,774	380
– Gross Shorts:	5,703	11,243	311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.3	11.2	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-11.5	39.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

05 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & Russell 2000-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (7,615 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,744 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (4,040 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (253 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14,986 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-5,848 contracts)and DowJones-Mini (-151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,174,689	18	4,337	65	-33,976	35	29,639	49
Nikkei 225	14,806	28	-1,875	53	1,084	42	791	38
Nasdaq-Mini	259,306	45	6,737	49	-6,592	36	-145	69
DowJones-Mini	103,936	70	-36,111	0	40,621	100	-4,510	22
VIX	353,533	49	-13,979	100	18,713	0	-4,734	72
Nikkei 225 Yen	54,580	44	4,776	49	9,666	37	-14,442	61

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above 50 percent.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (65.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (0.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (49.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (48.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (45.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (53.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (51.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (12.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.7 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (21 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (14 percent), the VIX (10 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-15 percent) and the Nikkei USD (-10 percent) coming in next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (9.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (11.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (21.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-40.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-50.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-9.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (14.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-18.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	45.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	40.0	9.1
– Net Position:	-13,979	18,713	-4,734
– Gross Longs:	95,012	160,163	27,346
– Gross Shorts:	108,991	141,450	32,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-10.2	4.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 4,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	72.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	73.6	10.6
– Net Position:	4,337	-33,976	29,639
– Gross Longs:	283,793	1,566,648	260,265
– Gross Shorts:	279,456	1,600,624	230,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	35.2	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-21.9	6.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,960 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	66.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.6	27.0	14.6
– Net Position:	-36,111	40,621	-4,510
– Gross Longs:	23,780	68,690	10,657
– Gross Shorts:	59,891	28,069	15,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.5	40.7	-24.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,737 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	55.9	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	58.4	14.6
– Net Position:	6,737	-6,592	-145
– Gross Longs:	72,368	144,956	37,843
– Gross Shorts:	65,631	151,548	37,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	36.3	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.7	2.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -39,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	79.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	72.4	4.6
– Net Position:	-39,427	40,876	-1,449
– Gross Longs:	80,998	441,734	24,237
– Gross Shorts:	120,425	400,858	25,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	53.5	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-11.0	-13.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 253 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	72.6	22.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	65.3	17.5
– Net Position:	-1,875	1,084	791
– Gross Longs:	679	10,745	3,382
– Gross Shorts:	2,554	9,661	2,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	42.5	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	12.3	-7.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -45,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	91.4	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	80.2	2.3
– Net Position:	-45,485	44,671	814
– Gross Longs:	21,077	363,693	9,868
– Gross Shorts:	66,562	319,022	9,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	90.9	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	16.6	-9.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

05 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (13,342 contracts) with Coffee (4,071 contracts) and Lean Hogs (2,532 contracts) also recording a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-39,416 contracts), Soybeans (-20,194 contracts), Sugar (-11,106 contracts), Wheat (-9,620 contracts), Cocoa (-7,543 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,671 contracts), Soybean Oil (-6,037 contracts) and Cotton (-16 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,671,255	24	262,258	31	-308,767	67	46,509	73
Gold	475,808	25	163,425	49	-182,707	53	19,282	31
Silver	126,549	15	20,211	47	-33,139	54	12,928	38
Copper	222,566	60	-17,161	16	18,395	87	-1,234	11
Palladium	22,943	100	-10,253	8	10,163	92	90	47
Platinum	74,768	65	10,826	41	-14,186	64	3,360	13
Natural Gas	1,186,140	46	-54,652	53	39,924	52	14,728	15
Brent	139,933	19	-31,488	51	28,628	51	2,860	50
Heating Oil	299,928	36	31,391	80	-52,127	27	20,736	66
Soybeans	706,923	35	16,260	0	-1,813	96	-14,447	69
Corn	1,412,108	29	-87,696	5	114,053	94	-26,357	98
Coffee	203,130	20	22,279	50	-21,876	54	-403	8
Sugar	865,859	40	213,589	68	-258,587	30	44,998	61
Wheat	460,210	100	-69,567	17	68,593	84	974	72

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (81 percent) and Sugar (68 percent) led the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (68 percent) and Coffee (50 percent) come in as the next highest with strength scores above 50 percent.

On the downside, Soybeans (0 percent), Corn (5 percent), Lean Hogs (15 percent) and the Wheat (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (4.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.5 percent)
Sugar (67.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (71.9 percent)
Coffee (50.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (32.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (60.6 percent)
Live Cattle (33.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (40.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.6 percent)
Cotton (25.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.8 percent)
Cocoa (80.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (88.5 percent)
Wheat (17.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.2 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (27 percent) and Soybean Meal (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (2 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-21 percent), Cocoa (-19 percent), Soybeans (-18 percent) and Soybean Oil (-17 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.0 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.1 percent)
Coffee (27.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (35.7 percent)
Soybeans (-17.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-53.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-38.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.4 percent)
Cotton (-21.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-21.6 percent)
Cocoa (-19.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.8 percent)
Wheat (-9.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -87,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -39,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	46.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	38.6	12.1
– Net Position:	-87,696	114,053	-26,357
– Gross Longs:	278,919	659,639	144,375
– Gross Shorts:	366,615	545,586	170,732
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	94.3	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.2	12.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 213,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,695 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	38.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	68.7	4.8
– Net Position:	213,589	-258,587	44,998
– Gross Longs:	310,643	336,357	86,511
– Gross Shorts:	97,054	594,944	41,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	30.2	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	11.0	-7.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	41.9	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.6	5.0
– Net Position:	22,279	-21,876	-403
– Gross Longs:	54,727	85,014	9,706
– Gross Shorts:	32,448	106,890	10,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	54.1	7.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.4	-25.3	-15.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	57.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	57.4	9.0
– Net Position:	16,260	-1,813	-14,447
– Gross Longs:	103,628	404,124	49,384
– Gross Shorts:	87,368	405,937	63,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.2	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	14.5	10.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,139 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	49.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	55.3	5.5
– Net Position:	25,102	-30,434	5,332
– Gross Longs:	103,802	241,470	32,168
– Gross Shorts:	78,700	271,904	26,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	66.8	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	17.6	-16.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 119,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	63.5	6.1
– Net Position:	119,668	-138,842	19,174
– Gross Longs:	149,649	191,134	51,015
– Gross Shorts:	29,981	329,976	31,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	32.2	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-20.1	14.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	35.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	50.9	12.0
– Net Position:	50,186	-43,839	-6,347
– Gross Longs:	96,331	100,461	27,680
– Gross Shorts:	46,145	144,300	34,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	69.1	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.2	48.2	52.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -18,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	39.4	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	29.1	10.3
– Net Position:	-18,189	20,010	-1,821
– Gross Longs:	54,521	76,620	18,275
– Gross Shorts:	72,710	56,610	20,096
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	88.2	75.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	16.7	4.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	47.4	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	57.8	4.9
– Net Position:	22,664	-24,680	2,016
– Gross Longs:	63,750	112,247	13,608
– Gross Shorts:	41,086	136,927	11,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	73.6	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.4	23.6	-39.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 69,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	26.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	50.0	3.9
– Net Position:	69,477	-72,106	2,629
– Gross Longs:	128,136	82,848	14,576
– Gross Shorts:	58,659	154,954	11,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	19.6	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	19.6	-7.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	34.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	19.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-69,567	68,593	974
– Gross Longs:	122,955	157,363	36,998
– Gross Shorts:	192,522	88,770	36,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	83.8	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	14.5	-22.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Financial News – Page 167

EUR/USD technical analysis

SPX500_m may revert to one of its widely-followed moving averages, following the mute session on Monday 6th November.

A doji candlestick typically reveals traders’ indecision.

From a bullish perspective, this impasse may be the calm before another raging rally.

What sets RoboMarkets’ trading conditions ahead in Europe?

1. VIP and Expert programmes

2. Loyalty programme

3. Affiliate accounts

Gold prices have kicked off the new week on a wobbly note despite punching above the psychological $2000 level last Friday.

While rising hopes around no more Fed hikes is good news for zero-yielding gold, this has also boosted overall risk sentiment – capping upside gains as investors shop for riskier assets.

Fun fact: Gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level.

Fed speeches + Powell

Geopolitical risks

Technical forces: breakout?

Currently, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 76% chance that Gold will trade within the $1956.63 – $2024.73 range this week.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

SOYBEANS Futures: