InvestMacro

Week Ahead: EURUSD bear flag waits for fresh catalyst

By ForexTime

*Note: This report was written before the US NFP data was published*

Euro could see volatility next week thanks to EU data dump

Powell remarks could trigger move in USD

EURUSD bear flag waits for fresh spark on D1 charts

Key levels of interest found at 1.0690, 1.0530 and 1.0450

Caution remains the name of the game as the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday, 3rd November) approaches.

Even with the growing anticipation, some keen investors may be keeping tab on what’s to come in the week ahead:

Monday, 6th November

EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, Germany factory orders
JPY: BoJ September meeting minutes
GBP: BoE chief economic Huw Pill speech

Tuesday, 7th November

CNH: China trade, forex reserves
AUD: RBA rate decision
EUR: Eurozone PPI, Germany industrial production
JPY: Japan household spending
USD: US trade, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speech

Wednesday, 8th November

EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Germany CPI
GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
USD: US wholesale inventories, New York Fed President John Williams speech
WSt30_m: Walt Disney earnings

Thursday, 9th November

CNH: China CPI, PPI, money supply, new yuan loans
GBP: BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks
USD: US initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Friday, 10th November

JPY: Japan M2 money stock
NZD: New Zealand PMI
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
GBP: UK industrial production, GDP
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speak

Our focus falls on none other than the world’s most traded currency, which is set to be influenced by numerous reports from Europe and the United States, along with speeches from Fed officials including Jerome Powell.

Before we discuss what to expect from the EURUSD next week, it is worth noting that the currency pair is under pressure with a bearish flag pattern in play on the daily charts.

A bearish flag is a candlestick chart pattern that signals the continuation of a downtrend once the technical bounce is finished.

A fresh fundamental spark could be required to trigger a significant technical move on the EURUSD. Here are 3 potential catalysts to keep an eye on in the week ahead:

EU data dump

The euro could see heightened volatility due to top-tier data from Europe in the first half of the week.

Concerns remain elevated over Europe’s outlook with economic growth contracting 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023. However, inflation has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years – strengthening the case for ECB doves and boosting expectations that the ECB will not raise rates further.

Investors will be paying close attention to some key data pieces ranging from Eurozone PMI’s, PPI and retail sales along German factory orders and industrial production among other significant releases from the region.

The EURUSD could find itself under fresh selling pressure if overall economic data disappoints and boosts speculation around rate cuts in the first half of 2024.
Euro bulls may draw support from strong economic data, especially if this supports expectations around rates remaining higher for longer

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in an 82% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by April 2024.

Powell remarks + US data

The Fed not only left interest rates unchanged at its November meeting but Powell also hinted that the central bank could be done with its most aggressive tightening cycle in 40 years.

Powell expressed optimism over the US economy but still warned that there was a long way to go on the inflation fight. Speeches from various Fed officials will be in sharp focus but on Thursday the spotlight shine on Powell as he participates in a panel on monetary policy challenges at the IMF’s annual research conference in Washington. It will be wise to keep an eye on US economic data which could influence monetary policy expectations.

Should Fed officials strike a dovish tone and overall US data disappoint, this could strengthen the argument around the Fed being done with hikes – supporting the EURUSD as a result amid dollar weakness.
If Powell along with Fed officials sounds more hawkish and US data beats forecasts, expectations could rise around one more Fed hike before the end of 2023, pulling the EURUSD lower as the dollar strengthens.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 32% probability of a 25 basis point Fed hike by the end of 2023.

Technical forces: bear flag

A bear flag technical pattern could be in play on the daily charts with prices flirting around the 50-day SMA as of writing. Prices are trading below the 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. Key resistance can be found at 1.0730 and 1.0690. Support may be identified at 1.0530 and 1.0450.

Sustained weakness below 1.0730 may encourage prices to slip back towards 1.0530 before targeting the 1.0450 level.
Should prices break above 1.0730, this may trigger a move towards the 200-day SMA around 1.0800.

According to Bloomberg’s FX model, there is a 74% chance that the EURUSD will trade between 1.0539 and 1.0768 range over the coming week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Source: Clive Maund (11/2/23)

Canadian Mining Co. An Immediate Speculative Buy

Technical Analyst Clive Maund takes a look at Collective Mining’s 6-month chart to tell you why now is the time to buy this stock.

Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL:TSXV) is rated an Immediate Strong Speculative Buy as close to the open this morning as possible. Its chart is looking very positive and the news came out that it has drilled its best hole to date.

On its latest 6-month chart below, we can see that when it broke down in September and tumbled along with many other gold and silver stocks, its Accumulation line held up well and has even been making new highs. This bodes well for recovery, even without the good news just out.

Right now, it appears to be at the second low of a Double Bottom with the strong Accumulation line already mentioned, still rising 200-day moving average, and positive divergence of momentum (MACD), all pointing to imminent recovery.

Collective Mining is therefore rated an Immediate Strong Speculative Buy as close to the open as possible.

Collective Mining’s website.

Collective Mining Ltd. closed at CA$4.46, $3.19 on October 27, 2023. Collective Mining is thinly traded on the US OTC market, where limit orders should always be employed.

_{Originally posted at Clivemaund.com at 9.25 EDT on October 30, 2023.}

Important Disclosures:

Clive Maund: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Financial News Metals

Source: Jeffery Hunter (11/2/23)

Oil and Gas Company Trading at 25% Of Book Value Production Set to Double

Jeffery Hunter of BullishBriefs shares his thoughts on energy company Avila Energy’s stock.

Avila Energy Corp. (PTRVF:OTCMKTS;VIK:CSE) is an overlooked opportunity trading at a steep discount to book value. After the share price was hit hard after a dramatic SPAC merger breakdown, this diversified energy company currently has a market capitalization under US$5 million, despite having total equity of US$21.3 million on the books. That means Avila Energy’s stock trades at around 25% of its book value per share of US$0.15.

With the price of Western Canadian crude oil sustaining over US$64 per barrel, now could be the ideal time to take advantage of Avila’s discounted share price. The company is focused on ramping up near-term production to capitalize on high commodity prices.

Avila currently produces approximately 570 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from its operations in Alberta, Canada. The company plans to double production to 950-1,040 boe/d through a combination of workovers, recompletions, and new drilling. Assuming the lower end of production, US$64 WCS oil and US$3.10 natural gas, my math gives me about 8.1m in annual revenue, considerably higher than their current market cap.

To help fund this growth, Avila Energy is undertaking a US$2.2 million private placement. The capital raised will go directly toward adding barrels and increasing cash flow at a time when market conditions are favorable.

Beyond conventional oil and gas production, Avila Energy is making moves into the clean energy space. The company is developing carbon capture and sequestration technology to reduce the emissions from its upstream operations. Avila is also launching a Vertically Integrated Energy Business using patented micro-turbine technology.

This micro-turbine technology enables modular power generation for homes and businesses. By selling the power directly to consumers, Avila can establish a stable recurring revenue stream. The company estimates each customer could generate around US$500 per month on average.

Avila Energy is positioning itself for the global energy transition. Through a balanced mix of oil and gas production and clean energy sales, the goal is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2024 and net zero emissions by 2027.

With fossil fuel production providing steady cash flow and clean energy initiatives driving future growth, Avila aims to become a unique diversified energy provider. The company has the team and vision to bridge the gap between traditional and renewable energy.

Trading at just a fraction of book value, with near-term production set to double and a pivotal move into clean energy, Avila Energy offers substantial upside for investors. With the CEO owning a whopping 28% of outstanding shares, the opportunity is compelling for those who see the long-term potential in the strategic transition Avila is undertaking.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Avila Energy Corp.
Jeffery Hunter: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Energy Financial News

Germany’s unemployment rate is on the rise. SNB has reached its inflation target

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.70%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive at 1.78% yesterday. All three indices hit two-week highs. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again drove bond yields lower and supported stocks.

Thursday’s economic news out of the US was primarily dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 5,000 to 217,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 210,000. Nonfarm labor productivity rose by 4.7% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations of 4.3% and the highest in 3 years.

Apple (AAPL) posted its fourth consecutive loss on revenue of $89.5 billion, down 1% from the previous quarter. The company’s stock fell more than 3.5% on the report. Starbucks (SBUX) closed higher by more than 9% after reporting Q4 comparable sales growth of 8.0%, beating the consensus forecast of 6.31%. Qualcomm (QCOM) closed higher by more than 5% after reporting adjusted Q4 revenue of $8.67 billion. Moderna (MRNA) declined more than 6% and topped the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reporting a third-quarter loss per share of $9.53 after including $3.1 billion in redundancy costs and tax benefits. Airbnb (ABNB) closed down more than 3% after reporting Q4 revenue guidance of $2.13 billion to $2.17 billion, which was worse than expected.

Equity markets in Europe were mainly up yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.48%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.85% yesterday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 2.04%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive at 1.42%.

The number of unemployed in Germany for October rose by 30,000, exceeding expectations of 14,000, indicating a weakening labor market. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 5.8% in October, matching expectations and the highest rate in 2 years. Comments from ECB Governing Council spokesman Knott indicate that he favors a pause in ECB rate hikes.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) voted 6-3 to keep its key interest rate at 5.25%. It said the restrictive policy will likely be needed for an extended period to contain inflation. Bank of England Governor Bailey said policymakers are watching to see if further rate hikes will be required and that it is very early to think about cutting rates.

Swiss inflation remained at 1.7% y/y in October, matching the market consensus. The core rate rose to 1.5% y/y from 1.3%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has ensured that inflation is within the 0%-2% target range. One of the reasons the SNB has been able to keep inflation below target is the strong Swiss franc, which has kept inflation from rising. However, the SNB has expressed concern that inflation could exceed the 2% ceiling as electricity, rent, and public transportation costs have increased.

The EIA natural gas inventories report released Thursday showed an increase of 79 Bcf, which was in line with the consensus forecast but above the 5-year average of 57 Bcf. As of October 27, natural gas inventories were up 7.9% y/y and 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating ample natural gas reserves ahead of the winter months.

In the Middle East, Israeli soldiers entered Gaza City, completing the encirclement of the urban area that is home to the main forces of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, but now face a host of challenges in fighting in the dense urban environment.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.10% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.75% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday positive at 0.90%.

Major Australian banks, including ANZ, ING, and Macquarie, raised home loan interest rates in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising the cash rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,317.78 +79.92 (+1.89%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,839.08 +564.50 (+1.70%)

DAX (DE40) 15,143.60 +220.33 (+1.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,446.53 +104.10 (+1.42%)

USD Index 106.14 −0.75 (−0.70%)

News feed for 2023.11.03:

– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

RoboForex Unveils Commission Schemes for CopyFX Traders on MT5

RoboForex, a well-established financial brokerage company, has unveiled new commission structures designed to empower skilled traders to maximise their potential earnings through the Performance Fee and Subscription Fee models while using the MT5 platform.

RoboForex has expanded its CopyFX service on the MT5 platform with meticulously crafted commission schemes tailored to create a balanced economic framework for the benefit of both traders and investors. The new “Performance Fee” and “Subscription Fee” schemes aim to foster a conducive trading environment where commissions align harmoniously with the profitability of investors’ trades.

Under the Performance Fee scheme, traders earn a portion of the overall profit generated by their subscribed investors from all deals copied for all subscription time. Alternatively, the Subscription Fee scheme ensures traders a fixed commission.

It should be noted that investors only incur the fee if the overall result turns out to be profitable.

A Symbiotic Relationship Between Traders and Investors

This initiative promotes a mutually beneficial relationship between traders and investors. Skilled traders can explore additional income streams, as their commissions are directly linked to the profits investors earn through copied transactions. In parallel, investors have the flexibility to select traders based on their performance, creating an ecosystem where traders are motivated to enhance their trading strategies. Consequently, higher profits for investors translate into more substantial commissions for traders.

What CopyFX Can Offer Clients on MT5

CopyFX on MT5 offers a combination of cost-effectiveness with a minimal deposit requirement of 100 USD. It also provides a secure, flexible, and user-friendly investment management infrastructure. With just an MT5 hedge account, traders and investors can access one of the most celebrated trading terminals in the market. Traders can use one of the best terminals on the market with cutting-edge analytical tools and lowest ping VPS from MetaQuotes. All the essential tools for copying transactions and acquiring subscribers to MT5 accounts are readily accessible in the Members Area under the “Investments” section. Notably, fees are only charged to investors when trades result in profits.

About CopyFX

Established in 2012, CopyFX is RoboForex’s flagship copy-trading platform, ingeniously designed to bridge the gap between novice investors and experienced traders. This innovative system empowers investors to enhance their trading skills by seamlessly subscribing to and replicating the strategies of seasoned traders. Expert traders, in turn, have the opportunity to earn commissions through followers’ strategic adoption.

CopyFX is available across RoboForex’s MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, and R StocksTrader accounts. It offers an enhanced trading experience by extending its robust functionalities through seamless integration with the R StocksTrader and R MobileTrader applications, ensuring a genuinely versatile, multi-device trading journey.

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

Source: Clive Maund (11/1/23)

One US Graphite Stock Should Benefit From China’s Exports Controls

With Western companies attempting to compete with Chinese graphite, Technical Analyst Clive Maund takes a look at one graphite stock he believes is an Immediate Buy.

There was a big flurry of activity in graphite stocks on Friday, and the reason for this was that China has imposed export controls on graphite, which means that countries like Canada and the U.S. will have to look elsewhere to secure supplies — the U.S., in particular, will be impacted because it is by far the biggest importer of Chinese graphite so this news is a big deal as China produces two-thirds of the world’s graphite so clearly China — after being provoked — is adopting a “hit ’em where it hurts” approach.

Demand for graphite is rapidly growing due to its use in electric vehicle batteries and other energy storage applications so its price is likely to ramp up significantly, which will be good news for non-Chinese producers. Current production of graphite in the U.S. is non-existent, but Graphite One has a sizeable deposit that it is working on bringing to production.

As it says on the company’s website . . . “The Graphite Creek Property, located on the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska about 60 kilometers north of Nome, has been discovered to hold America’s highest grade large flake graphite deposit, with 10.95 million tonnes of measured and indicated resources at a grade of 7.8% that could yield as much as 850,000 tonnes of contained graphite material.

Overall, an assumed 44 million tonnes of graphite mineralization at 7% contained graphite (Cg) available to be mined from the company’s Graphite Creek Property could support a project life of 40 years, producing 60,000 tonnes per year of graphite concentrate at 95% Cg with an 80% yield. In response to the news about China, a number of graphite stocks posted big gains on Friday, notably South Star Battery Metals Corp. (STS:TSX.V; STSBF:OTCBB), which surged 24% on huge volume and NextSource Materials Inc. (NEXT:TSX;NSRCF:OTCQB), which shot up by 28% again on huge volume.

NEXT closed well off its highs, but the chart looks very bullish, so the only reason that it closed well off its highs was due to trapped earlier buyers who weren’t aware of the news dumping onto the higher price. So, it is expected to forge ahead and is also rated an Immediate Buy.

The gain in Graphite One Inc. (GPH:TSX.V) was more modest at 7.7%, but it was on the strongest volume since July, and so it is expected to “join the party,” which is why we are looking at it here. Now, let’s look at its charts.

Starting with the 20-year chart, we see that the company has been around for a long time and started trading back in 2007. Its performance — up to now — has been unimpressive as although there have been some tradable wild swings, it is still well down on its price in 2007.

In mid-2020, it broke out of a huge bullish Falling Wedge pattern that had formed over many years and proceeded to advance until late 2021 before rolling over again and dropping. This advance included a couple of big spikes, which are characteristic of this stock that could work to our advantage if it does another of them soon.

Zooming in via the 5-year chart, we see that the retreat from late 2021 high brought it back to a zone of strong support in the CA$0.90 – CA$1.00 area, which generated another short-lived spike early this year before it came rattling back down to the support again which it has just arrived at, and given the price / volume action on Friday and the important news that triggered it, it is very well placed to do another spike and this time, given that the news is “game-changing,” the spike could be bigger than previous ones and more of the gains resulting from it could stick.

Lastly, looking at the 1-year chart, we see that the decline from the highs last February – March has taken the form of a fairly orderly downtrend channel, and the interesting thing is that, in addition to bringing the price down closer to the strong support mentioned in the last paragraph, it has also brought it down close to the lower boundary of the broad downtrend channel so that it is currently substantially oversold relative to its now flat 200-day moving average, which increases snapback potential.

This month’s new low was not confirmed by momentum (MACD), which has shown a positive divergence, and Friday’s gain on the biggest upside volume since July was clearly a bullish development, especially given the strong performance of other stocks across the sector.

Graphite One is therefore considered to be most attractive here and rated a Strong Buy. While there is overhead resistance on the way up, its effect should be mitigated by the abrupt change of sentiment resulting from the news out of China, meaning that it could do a big spike anyway, resistance or not.

Graphite One’s website.

Graphite One closed at CA$1.12, $0.83 on October 20, 2023.

_{Originally posted at Clivemaund.com at 5:00 pm EDT on October 22, 2023.}

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Graphite One Inc.
The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

Financial News Metals

Today, the focus of traders’ attention is on the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting.

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock exchange on Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) index rose by 0.67%, and the S&P 500 (US500) index rose by 1.05%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive at 1.64% yesterday. The S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (US100) indices hit one-week highs, and the Dow Jones Industrials index hit a 10-day-high. Weaker-than-expected ADP employment and ISM manufacturing reports in the US lowered bond yields and boosted stocks. Meanwhile, stock indices continued to rise in the afternoon after the FOMC committee left the rate unchanged at 5.5%, and Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed may suspend the interest rate hike campaign indefinitely: “Given how far we have come, along with the uncertainties and risks we face, the FOMC is proceeding carefully.”

Currently, markets are pricing a 19% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 and a 27% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the January 30-31, 2024 FOMC meeting.

The latest economic data showed that the change in US employment numbers for October from ADP was positive 113,000, which was weaker than expectations of 150,000. The US Manufacturing Activity Index for October unexpectedly declined by 2.3 to 46.7, which was weaker than expected. JOLTS job openings in the US for September unexpectedly rose by 53,000 to a 4-month high of 9.553 million, stronger than expectations of a decline to 9.400 million.

Equity markets in Europe were mainly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.76%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) gained 0.68% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.51%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.28%.

The Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting today. Investors expect the Bank of England to keep rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%, with policymakers predicted to reiterate that rates should remain at current levels for an extended period of time despite growing signs of weakness in the economy. But it should not be forgotten that while inflation in the UK has fallen, it remains the highest among major economies and is difficult to contain. So, any hawkish remarks from the Governor of the Bank of England may give temporary support to the British currency.

Silver prices came under pressure yesterday amid weaker-than-expected news from China and the US on weaker demand for industrial metals following unexpected declines in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI and US ISM manufacturing PMI for October.

Oil prices retreated from their best levels after the dollar index rose to a 4-week-high yesterday and on signs of weakness in manufacturing activity in China and the US. Crude oil inventories rose by 773,000 barrels, according to the EIA, less than expectations of 1.8 million barrels. Also, keep in mind that geopolitical risks are supporting oil prices due to fears that an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas could jeopardize oil supplies from the Middle East.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.41% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.84%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday positive 0.85%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index added 1.2% on Thursday, extending gains for the third consecutive session after the Bank of Japan took a less hawkish stance earlier in the week than many expected. A rise in technology stocks helped Australia’s ASX 200 index (AU200) climb 1.3% despite the country’s September trade surplus data falling to a 2.5-year low.

New Zealand’s unemployment rate has been on the rise. Unemployment rose to 3.9% from 3.6% in the last quarter. The employment report showed growing spare capacity in the labor market as higher interest rates cool the economy. Aggressive rate tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has led to lower inflation, which fell to 5.6% in the third quarter. Inflation expectations are also falling, an encouraging sign that the RBNZ will seek to avoid a rate hike at its November meeting.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,237.86 +44.06 (+1.05%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,274.58 +221.71 (+0.67%)

DAX (DE40) 14,923.27 +112.93 (+0.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,342.43 +20.71 (+0.28%)

USD Index 106.63 −0.03 (−0.03%)

News feed for 2023.11.02:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Norwegian Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Will BOE help Sterling break out of downtrend?

By ForexTime

Bank of England unlikely to change benchmark rate today
“Hawkish hold” could keep Sterling supported, though still stuck in downtrend
GBPUSD bulls must first conquer 21-day SMA resistance
1.2130 region offering support since late-September
GBPUSD likeliest to trade within 1.2025 – 1.2304 range over one week

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates at 5.25% today.

This is in tune with current market pricing, with only a 29% chance of another hike by February.

Further hikes may be needed if the bank gets more evidence of persistent inflation.

Other data since the last BOE meeting has been broadly soft with weak GDP and PMIs in September and October stuck in contractionary territory so signalling a gloomy growth outlook.

This implies the bar is relatively high now for another rate hike, especially due to the slightly surprising unchanged decision at the September meeting.

Updated economic projections and the press conference may allow policymakers to show their hand.

Higher inflation forecasts, with the 2% target being hit halfway through 2025, might imply rates need to stay higher for longer.

However, BOE Governor Bailey may stress the lagged effects of this tightening cycle, with higher mortgage rates still to hit many households.

Market rate expectations are noticeably lower after the summer’s repricing with the first rate cut fully priced in by September 2024.

How much caution there is towards the poor outlook compared to the potential re-emergence of upside risks to inflation will be key.

A “hawkish hold” should see GBP relatively well supported as it battles to break out of its long-term downtrend.

From a technical perspective …

A bear channel, with a series of lower highs and lower lows, has been in place since the mid-July top above 1.31.

For immediate consideration, GBPUSD bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) must first secure a daily close above its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Further resistance northwards may arrive at:

1.220: upper boundary of its bear channel
1.22889: intraday high on October 24th
1.2300: psychologically-important level, close to 50 Fibonacci level from GBPUSD’s June 2021 – September 2022 peak-to-trough action

Looking the other way, the 1.2130 region should offer strong support, as has largely been the case over the past five weeks.

Ultimate immediate-term support may arrive around the recent cycle low in early October which sits at 1.20372.

The support and resistance levels listed above fits nicely with the forecasted trading range, as per Bloomberg’s FX model, which cites a …

74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2025 – 1.2304 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

01 Nov

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 01.11.2023

By RoboForex.com

The price of BTC rose to 34,430 USD on Wednesday.

Following the figures from the past week, the daily gain of 0.5% and a weekly increase of 0.8% may appear unimpressive. However, it is vital to keep in mind that a crucial moment is currently unfolding: the market is on standby, refraining from engaging in sales.

The stakes are high for a rise in the price of the flagship cryptocurrency. Therefore, all news related to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs holds significant importance.

The scenario involving a corrective decline of BTC to 29,500 USD is currently on hold. The short-term target for an increase is set at 34,800 USD, with the next level being 35,800 USD.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has reached 1.28 trillion USD. BTC’s market share has decreased to 53.0%, while ETH’s share has increased to 17.1%.

Startup Bastion receives licences in the US

Obtaining licenses in both New Hampshire and Arkansas enables the young company to provide services to retail clients in the digital asset sphere. Bastion expects to secure more licences. The company began operations in mid-September, coinciding with the launch of its initial funding round of 25 million USD.

Profitable Bitcoin addresses reach 40 million

As of 30 October, the number of Bitcoin wallets showing a profit has reached 39.1 million. This figure is the highest in the history of cryptocurrency. The last time similar levels were witnessed in the market was in the autumn of 2021, but at that time, the BTC price was 50% higher than it is now.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

01 Nov

Fed expected to hold rates steady – what investors should do now

By George Prior

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly hold interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row today at the highest level in some 22 years.

This would support expectations from deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, of a year-end rally in 2023.

It also means that most investors will need to revise their investment portfolios.

The analysis from Nigel Green, deVere Group CEO and Founder, comes ahead of the US central bank’s Big Decision on interest rates at 2pm ET (7pm GMT).

He comments: “The markets will be buoyed by the Fed not raising rates as it means we’re nearer to the end of the most aggressive rate-hiking programme in generations.

“But the markets have already fully priced-in this Fed decision, so we don’t expect it to send stocks skyrocketing on this news alone.

“However, the Fed holding rates steady again does add fuel to our expectation of a 2023 year-end rally.”

On Tuesday, the deVere CEO told the media: “History shows that November is the second-best month of the year for markets, behind April.

“This November could be even more positive as some markets are currently in correction territory – falling by more than 10% – and so a swing to the upside will be more pronounced.

“Over 72 years there have been 34 market declines. Only 12 of these have turned into bear markets. When does a recovery typically happen? 96 days after the start of the correction. We’re now around day 90.

“If all this data holds up, we’re about to see a year-end rally, which investors would not want to miss out on.”

While the Fed may be done hiking, there is a wider expectation that they’re going to keep rates higher for longer.

As interest rates are anticipated to remain elevated for an extended period and a year-end market rally is expected, investors must adopt a prudent approach to navigate these evolving financial landscapes.

To thrive in such conditions, Nigel Green suggests five important strategies that investors should consider.

“First, maintain a well-diversified portfolio that spreads risk across various asset classes. Diversification can help mitigate the impact of rising interest rates and market volatility.

“Second, evaluate your risk tolerance and investment goals. Ensure that your portfolio aligns with your financial objectives, and consider adjusting your asset allocation accordingly.

“Third, given the potential for higher market volatility, active management can be valuable. Reassess and rebalance your portfolio as needed to capitalise on opportunities and manage risks effectively.

“Four, explore fixed-income investments that are less sensitive to interest rate changes, such as short-term bonds, structured notes or inflation-protected securities.

“Five, keep a long-term perspective and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements. Stick to your investment strategy and avoid trying to time the market.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.