Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 154

23 Jan

EURUSD waits on ECB meeting

By ForexTime

EURUSD in bearish flag pattern

ECB meeting looms large

Prices wedged between 21 & 50 EMA

Significant move could be on horizon

Selloff expected if bearish flag breaks

The past few days have been a choppy affair for the EURUSD.

Prices remain trapped within a range on the daily charts as bulls and bears wait for a fresh fundamental spark.

This could come in the form of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Although the central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, much focus will be on President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for fresh clues on the outlook for rate cuts. It is worth keeping in mind that it was only last week Lagarde said that the ECB is likely to cut rates in Summer. Should she reiterate this message and push back on rate-cut bets, euro bears could enter the building.

Traders are currently pricing in a 64% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by April, with a cut by June fully priced in.

Beyond the ECB meeting, it will be wise to keep an eye on key US economic data which could also influence the currency pair.

Focusing on the technical picture, the EURUSD could be gearing up for a significant move.

A bearish flag pattern can be observed on the daily timeframe.

Note: A bearish flag is a short-term bearish continuation pattern.

A proper flag should have a flagpole (where price nearly goes vertical), leading to price action bounded by two parallel lines, and often tilting against the existing trend.

With the flagpole often used as an estimated target after a breakout out from the flag, this current flag has a target of about 138 pips.

The location of this flag however may point towards a potential failed flag/ “false flag”.

The flag sits right on the upward-sloping trend line (a demand zone where bulls look to initiate new buys) drawn from October 3rd, 2023, and has been tested a few times after.

A close above the flag’s resistance may encourage bulls (those looking to see this pair rally) to push EURUSD higher.

As bulls join the rally in fiber to a possible new high above the December 28th high at 1.11396, attention should be given to the following potential resistance levels

1.09214: The 21-day exponential moving average

1.09321: The 50 Fibonacci retracement level

1.09813: The 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level level

1.10421: The 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level.

However, if the bearish flag breaks, below the support zone of the flag, its target objective maybe 1.04659 which is the 100.0 Fibonacci level

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Jan

Brent Crude Oil Prices Inch Upwards Amid Demand Speculations

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices are witnessing a moderate rise as the week begins, with the cost per barrel currently near $78.40. This upward trend is primarily influenced by the evolving outlook on energy demand. Recent macroeconomic data have cast some doubts on future demand, somewhat offsetting factors previously buoying prices, such as tensions in the Middle East.

Currently, Brent crude seems poised for a phase of consolidation within a specific price range. Despite some existing downward pressures, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are maintaining a significant risk premium in crude oil prices. Market dynamics are also reflected in the backwardation between the current Brent price and its six-month futures, suggesting an anticipation of potential future oil supply limitations.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The H4 chart for Brent indicates a recent rise to $79.74, followed by a correction to $78.06. It’s likely that a tight consolidation range will form above this level today. A break above this range could signal a growth trajectory towards $80.00, and potentially higher to $81.84 as a local target. The MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero, supports the likelihood of continued growth.

On the H1 chart, a correction phase appears to have concluded. The price may start ascending towards $79.79. Following this, a new consolidation phase around this level is anticipated. An upward breakout from this range could propel the price further to $81.84. This outlook is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, indicating a signal line trajectory from above 20, aiming towards 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

22 Jan

US stock indices hit all-time highs. PBoC left key lending rates unchanged

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 1.05% (+0.12% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.23% (+1.01% for the week) on Friday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.70% on Friday (up +2.07% for the week). At the same time, all three indices updated their all-time highs.

Stocks rose to record highs on Friday on optimism about the US economic outlook. According to the University of Michigan, inflation expectations in the US fell this month, bolstering hopes that the Fed could provide a soft landing for the economy. In addition, Friday’s rally in chip stocks is also boosting tech stocks and the broader market after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co gave an upbeat outlook for this year, bolstering hopes for a rebound in chip sales.

Weakening political risks supported stocks after Congress passed a resolution late Thursday night to keep the government running through March and avoid a shutdown on Saturday. The temporary measure would fund some US agencies through March 1 and others through March 8.

Shares of iRobot fell by more than 25% after Bloomberg reported that the European Union’s antitrust authority intends to block the company’s planned acquisition of Amazon.com.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.07% (-1.01% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) fell by 0.40% (-1.29% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.22% (-2.58% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.04% (2.14% for the week).

Over the past week, expectations of an ECB interest rate cut have weakened. In the swap market, the probability of an ECB rate cut at the March meeting has fallen to 16% from over 50% at the beginning of the month. Swaps currently estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 3% at the next meeting on January 25 and 16% at the next meeting on March 7. The first-rate cut is now expected in April. Germany’s producer price index for December fell more than expected, which is dovish for ECB policy.

In December, UK retailers suffered their biggest drop in sales in nearly three years, raising the risk that the economy slipped into recession late last year. UK retail sales in December 2023 fell by 2.4% compared to the same month in 2022, driven by a marked decline in sales. This was the largest monthly fall since January 2021.

Crude oil and gasoline prices declined moderately on Friday. Expectations that global oil supplies will remain ample despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East are weighing on crude oil prices. But against the backdrop of OPEC+ production cuts, as well as periodic escalation of the conflict in the Red Sea, traders should not expect a significant decline in prices for black gold in the coming weeks.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 0.92%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) remained unchanged in price for five trading days, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.54% for the week, and Australian ASX 200 (AU200) gained 1.02%.

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept key lending rates unchanged amid downward pressure on the yuan, disappointing investors expecting stimulus measures. Last week, the People’s Bank of China surprised markets by leaving the medium-term lending rate unchanged. Chinese markets continued to decline amid lingering concerns about a slowing economic recovery.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,839.81 +58.87 (+1.23%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,863.80 +395.19 (+1.05%)

DAX (DE40) 16,555.13 −12.22 (−0.07%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,461.93 +2.84 (+0.04%)

USD Index 103.24 −0.30 (−0.29%)

News feed for 2024.01.22:

– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Stock Market News

22 Jan

Trade Of The Week: SPX500_m bulls charge to record highs

By ForexTime

S&P500 hits all-time high

US earnings + key data in focus

Prices bullish for RSI overbought

Key level of interest at 4798

Can bulls maintain hunger for gains?

US equity bulls were back in action last Friday as optimism over expected Fed rate cuts and surging tech stocks pushed the SPX500_m to all-time highs!

Note: The SPX500_m tracks the underlying S&P 500 index

The index has not only topped the previous record set in January 2022 but also confirmed that it has been in a bull market since the October 2022 low. When considering the shaky start to the new year, it looks like SPX500_m bulls have regained their mojo.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hit 70, signalling that prices are heavily overbought.

With all the above said, this could be a wild week for the SPX500_m due to technical and fundamental forces. Given how prices are trading at record highs, the key question is whether bulls can maintain their hunger for more gains.

Here are 3 key factors that could influence the index:

US earnings season

US earnings season is in full swing with some of the largest companies in the world publishing their quarterly results.

The likes of Netflix, Tesla, Intel, and Visa among other companies listed in the S&P500 will be under the spotlight over the next few days. Both Netflix and Tesla are expected to report record quarterly revenues which could provide fresh support to the index. Intel is forecast to post its first revenue and profit growth in almost two years while Visa’s revenue could be supported by a better-than-expected holiday season.

The SPX500_m could push higher if overall earnings exceed market expectations.
If earnings disappoint, the SPX500_m could trade lower.

Key US data

The string of incoming key US data may influence expectations around Fed rate cuts – ultimately impacting the SPX500_m which has a handful of tech stocks.

All eyes will be on the Q4 GDP figures, PMIs, and latest PCE report for fresh insight into the health of the largest economy in the world. The US economy is expected to have expanded by 1.9% in Q4 while the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure is forecast to cool 3% in December vs 3.2% in the prior month. Given the market sensitivity to Fed cut expectations, the US data could translate to increased market volatility this week.

Should overall US economic data fuel speculation around Fed rate cuts, this could push the SPX500_m higher.
A set of strong reports and hotter-than-expected inflation figures may dampen hopes on early Fed rate cuts, dragging the SPX500_m lower.

Technical forces

The SPX500_m is firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero. Although bulls are in a position of power, the RSI signals that prices are heavily overbought – suggesting a potential throwback down the road.

The current upside momentum could take prices towards the next round psychological level at 4900.
Should prices slip back below the 4798 dynamic support, this could open a path back towards 4700.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

20 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets fall this week led by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets fall this week led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-12,139 contracts), Platinum (-10,984 contracts), Gold (-8,721 contracts), Palladium (-1,977 contracts), Silver (-769 contracts) and with Steel (-316 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Major Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) and Gold (57 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) and Copper (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (57.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.4 percent)
Silver (57.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (58.2 percent)
Copper (9.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (20.3 percent)
Platinum (44.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (69.9 percent)
Palladium (0.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.9 percent)
Steel (89.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.7 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (17 percent) and Palladium (-1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (-16 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-21 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-10.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (-5.2 percent)
Silver (-15.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.8 percent)
Copper (-21.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.4 percent)
Platinum (17.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.2 percent)
Palladium (-1.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.8 percent)
Steel (-6.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-4.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 179,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 188,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.6	22.3	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	64.7	4.5
– Net Position:	179,893	-207,420	27,527
– Gross Longs:	262,360	109,287	49,640
– Gross Shorts:	82,467	316,707	22,113
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	40.7	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	8.0	12.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 25,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	27.6	22.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	60.8	8.9
– Net Position:	25,593	-43,759	18,166
– Gross Longs:	54,001	36,482	29,933
– Gross Shorts:	28,408	80,241	11,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	38.5	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	10.4	13.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	42.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	32.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-25,306	22,851	2,455
– Gross Longs:	62,408	93,533	14,856
– Gross Shorts:	87,714	70,682	12,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	90.6	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	17.1	16.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.6	23.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	48.3	4.8
– Net Position:	12,557	-18,498	5,941
– Gross Longs:	43,243	17,774	9,509
– Gross Shorts:	30,686	36,272	3,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.6	55.2	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-19.3	25.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	60.6	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.9	7.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-11,449	10,874	575
– Gross Longs:	3,623	12,370	2,226
– Gross Shorts:	15,072	1,496	1,651
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	8.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.3	96.2	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	-2.6	36.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	80.1	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	72.6	1.1
– Net Position:	-1,793	1,595	198
– Gross Longs:	3,114	16,956	440
– Gross Shorts:	4,907	15,361	242
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.5	10.7	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	7.0	-23.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

20 Jan

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (70,133 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (65,855 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (36,150 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (28,000 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13,627 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with decreases in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-102,365 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-26,655 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-9,423 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (100 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (54 percent) and the Fed Funds (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (21 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (54.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (17.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (18.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (39.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (29.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (54.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (57.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (100.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (96.6 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the Fed Funds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (17 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-24 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (18.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (14.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (14.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (14.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-23.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (0.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-18.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (12.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (8.2 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 751,218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 685,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	50.0	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	57.4	0.4
– Net Position:	751,218	-744,978	-6,240
– Gross Longs:	1,980,330	5,041,095	32,482
– Gross Shorts:	1,229,112	5,786,073	38,722
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-12.4	-1.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -66,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 70,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	65.9	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	61.2	3.1
– Net Position:	-66,060	84,651	-18,591
– Gross Longs:	245,775	1,193,992	36,694
– Gross Shorts:	311,835	1,109,341	55,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	47.7	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-17.1	-13.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,202,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 36,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,238,657 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	80.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	52.9	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,202,507	1,088,522	113,985
– Gross Longs:	437,046	3,153,891	248,329
– Gross Shorts:	1,639,553	2,065,369	134,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	82.2	87.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-17.8	-10.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,196,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -26,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,170,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	65.8	4.8
– Net Position:	-1,196,837	1,045,883	150,954
– Gross Longs:	470,260	4,939,008	432,568
– Gross Shorts:	1,667,097	3,893,125	281,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	78.8	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-18.1	3.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -889,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -102,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -787,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	80.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	63.5	7.3
– Net Position:	-889,385	822,775	66,610
– Gross Longs:	421,532	3,836,497	411,684
– Gross Shorts:	1,310,917	3,013,722	345,074
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	30.4	3.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -160,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -173,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	73.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	62.2	13.3
– Net Position:	-160,172	236,238	-76,066
– Gross Longs:	332,232	1,539,371	203,162
– Gross Shorts:	492,404	1,303,133	279,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	78.5	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-20.3	-3.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -127,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 28,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -155,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	73.3	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	68.4	9.6
– Net Position:	-127,752	70,146	57,606
– Gross Longs:	181,558	1,056,607	195,609
– Gross Shorts:	309,310	986,461	138,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.0	37.2	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-4.7	7.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -322,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -313,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	79.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	61.5	9.1
– Net Position:	-322,618	306,074	16,544
– Gross Longs:	165,101	1,339,541	170,046
– Gross Shorts:	487,719	1,033,467	153,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	46.3	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	6.2	-6.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

20 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybeans & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (5,473 contracts) with Coffee (3,794 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,621 contracts) and Cocoa (1,316 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-55,619 contracts), Corn (-46,935 contracts), Wheat (-13,221 contracts), Soybean Meal (-8,752 contracts), Sugar (-8,743 contracts), Lean Hogs (-987 contracts) and Live Cattle (-559 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Major Softs – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (82 percent) and Coffee (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (35 percent), Cotton (17 percent) and Sugar (12 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Live Cattle (4 percent), Soybean Oil (4 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Sugar (12 percent) and Cotton (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.1 percent)
Sugar (12.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (15.5 percent)
Coffee (78.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (74.2 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (16.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.6 percent)
Live Cattle (3.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.5 percent)
Cotton (17.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.2 percent)
Cocoa (81.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (80.2 percent)
Wheat (35.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (44.3 percent)

Coffee & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (16 percent) and Wheat (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (4 percent) and Cocoa (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-68 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-38 percent), Soybeans (-33 percent) and Soybean Oil (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-14.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.1 percent)
Sugar (-38.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-49.3 percent)
Coffee (15.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.4 percent)
Soybeans (-33.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-25.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-67.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-70.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-17.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.6 percent)
Cotton (3.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (3.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.8 percent)
Wheat (14.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (44.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -219,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -46,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -173,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	47.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	31.7	11.4
– Net Position:	-219,968	242,217	-22,249
– Gross Longs:	252,825	718,815	148,520
– Gross Shorts:	472,793	476,598	170,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	14.0	8.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 60,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	57.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	68.0	6.8
– Net Position:	60,215	-81,568	21,353
– Gross Longs:	167,220	463,362	75,786
– Gross Shorts:	107,005	544,930	54,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	84.4	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.1	32.8	-2.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	35.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	58.6	3.9
– Net Position:	49,382	-51,147	1,765
– Gross Longs:	72,967	78,642	10,343
– Gross Shorts:	23,585	129,789	8,578
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	25.0	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-15.2	1.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -93,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -55,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	59.8	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	43.2	9.7
– Net Position:	-93,668	112,439	-18,771
– Gross Longs:	85,450	406,415	47,386
– Gross Shorts:	179,118	293,976	66,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.1	32.0	-3.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	50.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	45.9	5.1
– Net Position:	-27,587	25,234	2,353
– Gross Longs:	101,070	273,291	30,152
– Gross Shorts:	128,657	248,057	27,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.8	95.4	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	16.9	-8.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	48.9	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	50.3	6.8
– Net Position:	-11,242	-6,171	17,413
– Gross Longs:	87,316	227,973	49,045
– Gross Shorts:	98,558	234,144	31,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-67.9	69.7	-19.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	40.3	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	48.6	12.4
– Net Position:	22,808	-22,619	-189
– Gross Longs:	71,847	109,224	33,303
– Gross Shorts:	49,039	131,843	33,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	95.1	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	12.6	23.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	39.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	22.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-25,483	31,462	-5,979
– Gross Longs:	58,540	75,951	15,122
– Gross Shorts:	84,023	44,489	21,101
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	97.4	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	1.8	-5.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,950 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	45.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	50.7	5.9
– Net Position:	11,423	-10,695	-728
– Gross Longs:	61,411	94,659	11,495
– Gross Shorts:	49,988	105,354	12,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.3	83.1	11.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-3.7	3.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	25.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	47.3	4.7
– Net Position:	70,197	-72,315	2,118
– Gross Longs:	126,075	81,839	17,499
– Gross Shorts:	55,878	154,154	15,381
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.6	19.4	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.3	-8.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	38.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	24.7	9.5
– Net Position:	-46,611	54,064	-7,453
– Gross Longs:	109,221	153,035	30,403
– Gross Shorts:	155,832	98,971	37,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	66.9	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-13.7	-8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

20 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500 & Russell

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX with a small gain of 409 contracts for the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-52,197 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-6,767 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-6,692 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-1,820 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-969 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-205 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Major Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (95 percent), the Russell-Mini (95 percent), the DowJones-Mini (89 percent) and the VIX (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (80.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (39.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (47.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (89.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (100.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (95.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (95.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (100.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (34.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (47.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.3 percent)

Russell-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (49 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (43 percent), the DowJones-Mini (28 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (20 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the S&P500-Mini (-18 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (8.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (2.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-18.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-7.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (79.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (45.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (49.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (54.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-19.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-2.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (20.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (34.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -43,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	47.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	34.2	8.6
– Net Position:	-43,760	48,439	-4,679
– Gross Longs:	70,938	171,136	26,368
– Gross Shorts:	114,698	122,697	31,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	19.4	72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-6.1	-18.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -169,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -52,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	69.0	8.9
– Net Position:	-169,246	102,434	66,812
– Gross Longs:	260,119	1,632,215	263,465
– Gross Shorts:	429,365	1,529,781	196,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	54.0	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.2	14.1	7.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	50.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	68.0	14.4
– Net Position:	17,387	-17,616	229
– Gross Longs:	32,708	49,137	14,319
– Gross Shorts:	15,321	66,753	14,090
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.1	11.5	45.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.9	-30.1	16.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	54.8	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.0	13.2
– Net Position:	36,571	-38,733	2,162
– Gross Longs:	83,692	149,969	38,187
– Gross Shorts:	47,121	188,702	36,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	9.5	83.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.4	-27.7	-8.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	74.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	79.7	4.4
– Net Position:	14,245	-23,482	9,237
– Gross Longs:	89,004	366,952	30,721
– Gross Shorts:	74,759	390,434	21,484
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	5.4	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.4	-47.7	15.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	67.6	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	48.9	14.1
– Net Position:	-4,478	3,317	1,161
– Gross Longs:	2,076	11,981	3,669
– Gross Shorts:	6,554	8,664	2,508
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	56.1	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	13.9	8.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -30,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	89.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	83.7	2.0
– Net Position:	-30,095	24,686	5,409
– Gross Longs:	29,826	381,532	13,776
– Gross Shorts:	59,921	356,846	8,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	62.4	44.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-20.8	2.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

19 Jan

Houthi rebels continue to cause problems in the Red Sea. The Bank of Malaysia intends to hold the current rate until the end of 2024

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.54%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.88% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.35%, with the index setting a record high. Stocks found support on Thursday as political risks eased after the Senate passed a continuing resolution that will fund the government through March and avoid a shutdown on Saturday.

Economic news out of the US on Thursday was mixed. Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 16,000 to a 16-month low of 187,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected at 205,000. In addition, December housing starts fell by 4.3% m/m to 1.460 million, stronger than expectations of 1.425 million. December building permits, an indicator of future construction, rose by 1.9% m/m to 1.495 million, stronger than expectations of 1.477 million. On the downside, the Philadelphia Fed’s January business outlook survey rose by 2.2 to negative 10.6, weaker than expectations of negative 6.5.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said yesterday that he wants to see more evidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target and that he expects the first-rate cut in the third quarter of this year. Markets are pricing in a 3% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 and a 55% chance of such a 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20 meeting.

Apple (AAPL) rose by more than 3% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials Index after Bank of America upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” with a $225 price target. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are up more than 1% after Cowen raised its target price on the stock to $185 from $130. Marvel Technology (MRVL) shares are up more than 4% after Cowen raised its price target on the stock to $75 from $65. Boeing (BA) is up more than 4% after it received an order for 150 Max jets from Indian airline Akasa Air.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) gained 1.13% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.13% on Thursday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.17%.

The report on the ECB’s December 13-14 meeting was somewhat hawkish as policymakers brushed off expectations of a rate cut and said they were concerned that market speculation over monetary easing could derail the disinflationary process. Swaps put the odds of an ECB rate cut at -25 bps at 3% at the next meeting on January 25 and 23% at the March 7 meeting.

On Thursday, the IEA again raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2024, although its forecast remains below OPEC expectations, and said the market looks well-supplied thanks to strong growth outside the producer group. The IEA expects global oil supply to grow by 1.5 mb/d to a new high of 103u5 mb/d in 2024, helped by record output from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. However, according to the report, there are concerns that the conflict between the US and China may regain attention as the US elections approach, which would negatively impact energy demand.

Attacks on ships by Houthi rebels continued on Thursday. Tanker traffic through the Bab-el-Mandab Strait is down 58% from 2023 at this time, according to consultancy Vortexa.

Asian markets were mixed yesterday. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up by 1.59% on Thursday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.75% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.63% on Thursday.

Japan’s Core Machinery Orders for November fell by 4.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.8% m/m and the biggest decline in 6 months. The nationwide core CPI fell from 2.5% to 2.3% y/y as expected. This situation pushes back the Bank of Japan’s plans for policy normalization. There is a high probability of no change until April as policymakers need to see stronger wage growth, which will only become evident after the spring wage negotiations.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is likely to leave the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.00% on Jan 24 and hold it at least until the end of 2024 as price pressures are expected to intensify and economic growth remains robust. This forecast was made even though inflation fell to 1.5% in November — the lowest level since March 2021 — and remains below the government’s 3%-4% forecast for 2023, partly due to BNM raising rates by 125 basis points between May 2022 and May 2023. With the Malaysian ringgit appreciating nearly 3% against the US dollar in 2024 and markets expecting the US Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively this year, the need for BNM to ease policy in the near term will be limited.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,780.94 +41.73 (+0.88%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,468.61 +201.94 (+0.54%)

DAX (DE40) 16,567.35 +135.66 (+0.83%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,459.09 +12.80 (+0.17%)

USD Index 103.40 -0.05 (-0.05%)

News feed for 2024.01.19:

– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– World Economic Forum Annual Meetings at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 23:15 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

18 Jan

Solar Energy Company Expands Network Overseas

Source: Streetwise Reports (1/16/24)

Three Sixty Solar Ltd. has signed an MOU with a variety of partners in the U.S., the Middle East, and Turkey. Read on to see why analysts rated this company’s stock as a Buy.

Three Sixty Solar Ltd. (VSOL:NEO; VSOLF:OTC) announced in a press release on January 10, 2024, that the company had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Infraforward Strategies, Tareeq Al-Ahmadi Company, Fibercom Company, and Zamil Group Trade and Services Company for vertical solar tower systems.

Together, the companies that Three Sixty Solar signed with represent the installation of solar towers in the United States, Iraq, Turkey, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Infraforward’s focus is on digital infrastructure and green energy, while Tareeq Al-Ahmadi and Fibercom focus on construction, and Zamil Group is primarily a trading company with partnerships overseas.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund published an updated review of Three Sixty Solar, where he reaffirmed his positive view of the company and rated it as “an Immediate Strong Buy.”

The co-founder of Infraforward Strategies, Ahmed Alomary, commented, “We are excited to have signed this MOU with Three Sixty Solar and our partners in the Middle East and Turkey. Since meeting Three Sixty Solar early in 2023, we have held the belief that their technology can be well applied in the renewable energy and telecom projects that we have been working on overseas.”

Alomary continued, “With the addition of our partners in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, we believe that we can achieve deployment of the technology quickly and, with our partners in Turkey, we believe we can make the costs competitive.”

6.9% Expected Annual Growth

According to Grand View Research, the market for solar energy is expected to grow by 15.7% by 2030 and is estimated to be worth US$160.3 billion in 2021. Grand View identified government initiatives prioritizing green energy as major drivers for solar energy, as well as the research race on the part of both private companies and government entities for more efficient energy production.

Fortune Business Insights predicted that the market will be worth US$373.84 billion in 2029 and grow by 6.9% each year. Fortune identified the development of photovoltaic technology as a major focus of the market and reported that the majority of solar panel manufacturing, at about 70%, is focused in China, representing a shortage of supply for solar panels manufactured elsewhere.

An Immediate Strong Buy

On July 24, 2023, Technical Analyst Clive Maund published an updated review of Three Sixty Solar, where he reaffirmed his positive view of the company and rated it as “an Immediate Strong Buy.”

Maund commented on the company’s stock patterns, “The shorter-term 6-month chart shows recent action in more detail, and the most important point to observe is the really big volume on the rally so far this month and how it drove the Accumulation line up to clear new highs which certainly looks bullish.”

In March of 2023, Maund had also reviewed the company as “a Very Strong Buy” and stated that he believed that the company was a great long-term investment opportunity, especially given its bullish stock patterns.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Three Sixty Solar (VSOL:NEO;VSOLF:OTC)

	Retail: 79.92%
	Institutions: 17.12%
	Management and Insiders: 2.96%

79.9%

17.1%

^*Share Structure as of 1/11/2024

Source: Three Sixty Solar

The company has a number of reports, according to the company’s investor presentation, including its 5-year goal to establish 500 MW of solar towers internationally and to develop 25 solar farms in North America and Europe by 2027.

Ownership and Share Structure

Reuters provided a breakdown of the company’s ownership and share structure, where management and insiders own approximately 2.96% of the company. According to Reuters, CEO Brian P. Roth owns 2.79% of the company with 1.25 million shares, and Director Scott McLeod owns 0.17% of the company with 0.08 million shares.

Reuters reports that institutional investors own approximately 17.12% of the company, as 0996996 BC Ltd. owns 17.06% of the company with 7.64 million shares, and Carret Asset Management, L.L.C. owns 0.06% of the company with 0.03 million shares.

According to Reuters, there are 44.78 million shares outstanding with 35.82 million free float traded shares, while the company has a market cap of CA$5.02 million and trades in the 52-week period between CA$0.14 and CA$0.91.

Important Disclosures:

Three Sixty Solar Ltd. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Three Sixty Solar Ltd.
Amanda Duvall wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

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Archive for Financial News – Page 154

The past few days have been a choppy affair for the EURUSD.

A bearish flag pattern can be observed on the daily timeframe.

1.09214: The 21-day exponential moving average

1.09321: The 50 Fibonacci retracement level

1.09813: The 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level level

1.10421: The 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level.

US equity bulls were back in action last Friday as optimism over expected Fed rate cuts and surging tech stocks pushed the SPX500_m to all-time highs!

US earnings season

Key US data

Technical forces

Weekly Speculator Bets fall this week led by Copper & Platinum

Major Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

Bonds – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybeans & Corn

Major Softs – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

Coffee & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

Major Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

Russell-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts: