Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 106

Oil prices have fallen to November 2021 lows. OPEC+ lowered demand estimates

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.45%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.84%. A 4.3% drop in the price of WTI crude oil to a 16-month low on Tuesday hamstrung energy stocks. However, the broad market closed in positive territory due to gains in technology companies. Tesla (TSLA) shares rose by 4.6% and were the second-best performer among Nasdaq 100 stocks after Deutsche Bank named it a top pick with a “buy” recommendation and a $295 price target. Oracle (ORCL) rose by 11.44% and led the S&P 500 higher after reporting adjusted first-quarter revenue of $13.31 billion, better than the consensus estimate of $13.26 billion.

The Dollar Index fell below 101.5 on Wednesday, trimming recent gains as investors reacted to the first and only debate between US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump before the November election. Analysts suggested that the chances of a Harris presidency had increased slightly, which put pressure on the dollar, supported by expectations of higher tariffs and increased fiscal spending under another Trump presidency.

The Mexican peso fell to 20 per dollar in September, hitting a two-year low amid concerns over judicial reform and dovish expectations for the Bank of Mexico. Investor sentiment was dampened by the judicial reform bill. The reform, perceived as a threat to judicial independence and foreign investment, prompted warnings from financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Julius Baer of possible credit downgrades.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.96%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.24%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.61%, the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.78%. The worst-performing sector was the automotive sector, which fell 3.8% after Continental announced that it would have to lay off a significant amount of money due to warranty problems with one of its brake systems. The news also impacted BMW, which lowered its profitability estimate for 2024, citing the brake problem and other factors; BMW shares fell by 11%, and Continental shares fell more than 10%.

WTI crude prices fell more than 4% to $65.7 a barrel on Tuesday, hitting their lowest level since November 2021, after OPEC cut demand prognoses for the second time in two months. OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down 80,000 bpd from the previous estimate. For 2025, OPEC revised its demand growth prognosis to 1.7 million bpd, down 40,000 bpd from the previous estimate. This reduction is due to lower oil consumption in China, especially as rising sales of electric vehicles reduce demand for conventional fuels.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.16%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.22% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.30%. The Hang Seng Index (HK50) fell to its lowest level in nearly five weeks and Chinese stocks were on the verge of falling to a seven-month low as strong mainland export data for August failed to ease growing concerns over deflation risks and ongoing trade friction with the US-led West. Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives on Monday passed a bill aimed at restricting business with some Chinese biotech companies on national security grounds.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) board spokeswoman Junko Nakagawa said the Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates if inflation moves in line with its prognosis. She added that a tight labor market and the continued rise in import prices also pose upward risks to inflation. In addition, she noted that real interest rates remain deeply negative despite the July rate hike.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,495.52 +24.47 (+0.45%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,736.96 −92.63 (−0.23%)

DAX (DE40) 18,265.92 −177.64 (−0.96%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,205.98 −64.86 (−0.78%)

USD Index 101.67 +0.12 (+0.12%)

News feed for: 2024.09.11

UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Sep

EUR/USD halted its decline: the market awaits US inflation data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD halted its decline near a four-week low at 1.1034 on Wednesday. The information flow currently appears congested. The market is awaiting today’s US inflation release for August and is keeping an eye on the upcoming political debates between the main US presidential nominees. In addition, yesterday, the Fed outlined a plan to increase the capital of large banks by 9%. The banking sector was disappointed by this, with the proposal immediately gaining many critics.

Despite the abundance of news and events ahead, none of them is likely to influence the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision. The meeting is scheduled for next week. The main scenario suggests a 25-basis-point reduction in borrowing costs, with the likelihood of the scenario estimated at 67%.

As for inflation expectations, CPI could have decreased to 2.6% y/y in August from the previous 2.9%. The indicator is projected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month as in July. Core inflation could have remained at 3.2% y/y. This data appears rather moderate largely due to core prices remaining unchanged. This may mean that the trend towards easing inflationary pressures is not as strong as wished to be.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the EUR/USD H4 chart, the market is forming a downward wave structure, aiming for 1.0985. The price could reach this target level today. Subsequently, a consolidation range is expected to develop, extending up to 1.1026 and down to 1.0960. A breakout below the 1.0960 level may be considered a signal for a continuation of the trend to 1.0818. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below the zero level and pointing sharply downwards.

On the EUR/USD H1 chart, the market has completed a downward wave, reaching 1.1015, and today corrected towards 1.1049. The price is expected to decline to 1.0985. Subsequently, a consolidation range might form above this level, with the price expected to break below it. The third downward wave is forming, targeting 1.0818. This scenario is also technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 and poised for a decline to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Sep

Brent remains under pressure: China and rapid growth in OPEC+ production to blame

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The oil market remains under pressure. A barrel of Brent oil declined to 71.80 USD by Tuesday. The commodity erased all early-week gains as fears of slowing demand in China outweighed the risk of energy shortages due to the storm in the Persian Gulf.

In recent weeks, market participants have been paying close attention and analysing the whole range of news related to China. The sluggish economic growth rate combined with the global strategy of transition to low-carbon raw materials is reducing China’s need for oil. This negatively impacts Chinese oil imports and naturally affects market prices as China is considered the world’s largest raw material consumer.

Investors are also confident that oil consumption in Europe and the US will reduce following the active driving season. Additionally, some oil refineries are going into maintenance mode, meaning they will not need as many raw materials as before. OPEC+ had previously postponed the planned increase in oil output for a couple of months. Yes, the market now has a respite but the likelihood of an imminent commodity oversupply is still looming over prices

Storm Francine is expected to intensify near Texas, US and could become a Category 2 storm, which means a hurricane threat. Some production facilities in Texas may be shut down until weather conditions improve.

Brent technical analysis

The BRENT H4 chart shows that the market has broken below the 74.96 level and completed a downward wave, reaching 70.50. A consolidation range could form at the current lows today. An upward breakout will open the potential for growth to 75.00 (testing from below). With a downward breakout, the range could expand to the local target of 69.69. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below the zero level at the lows and poised for growth.

The BRENT H1 chart shows that the market has reached the downward wave’s local target of 70.50. Today, the market is forming a consolidation range above this level. The range expanded up to 71.90 and down to 70.46. A breakout above the 71.90 level will open the potential for a corrective wave towards 75.00. With a breakout below 70.46, the range could expand downwards, with the wave continuing to 69.69. This scenario is technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 20 and poised for growth.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

10 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on Natural gas prices fell by 4%. Oil also remains under pressure from weak demand

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 1.16%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index added 1.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.30%. A rise in chip company stocks provided support for the broader market. In addition, positive corporate news drove the stock higher. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed higher by more than 13%, and Dell Technologies (DELL) closed higher by more than 3% after news that both companies will join the S&P 500 in the index’s latest quarterly change before trading opens on September 23. Boeing (BA) also closed higher by more than 3% on optimism that an agreement with its largest labor union will avoid a strike at factories.

Mexico’s annualized inflation rate fell to 4.99% in August 2024, down from a 14-month high of 5.57% in the prior period and slightly below market estimates of 5.09%. The annualized core inflation rate fell to 4% in August, the lowest since February 2021, down from 4.05% in the previous month. Lower inflationary pressures could be negative for the MXN currency.

Equity markets in Europe’s advantage rallied yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) gained 0.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.99%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.89%, the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.09%. In Europe, the focus is on Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy decision, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected. Investors are also awaiting the final French inflation data, which is due out on Friday.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $68.6 a barrel on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains. Concerns over weak consumption in China persist as a shift to low-carbon fuels and a sluggish economy continue to slow demand growth in the world’s top oil consumer. In addition, consumption in Europe and the US is expected to decline as the summer season ends.

US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 3% to below $2.35 per MMBtu due to a looming hurricane expected to hit Louisiana this week. The hurricane, which the National Hurricane Center predicts will form in the Gulf of Mexico and hit Louisiana, where several large LNG plants are located, could reduce demand, cause power outages, and disrupt LNG exports.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.48%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 1.22%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.34%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.32%.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.11 per dollar, marking the third straight session of declines, as the US dollar strengthened on expectations that the Federal Reserve will opt for a modest interest rate cut at its meeting next week. Traders assessed the latest economic data from China. On Tuesday, China reported a sharp widening of its trade surplus to 91.02 billion US dollars in August 2024 from 67.81 billion US dollars a year earlier. Export growth slowed to a four-month low of 4.6% year-on-year, falling short of the projected 6.5% growth, compared with a 7% increase in the previous month. Meanwhile, import growth slowed to 2.5% from a three-month high of 7.2% in July, although slightly above the expected 2% increase.

NAB Australia’s August 2024 business confidence index fell to 4 from July’s reading of 1. This was the first negative reading in three months and the lowest in a year amid sharp declines in leisure and personal services, transport and utilities, construction, and manufacturing.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,471.05 +62.63 (+1.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,829.59 +484.18 (+1.20%)

DAX (DE40) 18,443.56 +141.66 (+0.77%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,270.84 +89.37 (+1.09%)

USD Index 101.62 +0.44 (+0.44%)

News feed for: 2024.09.10

Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Macklem Speeaks (m/m) at 15:10 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on The Bank of Canada is likely to continue cutting rates amid a weak labor market. OPEC+ postponed the planned production increase

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 1.01% (for the week -2.47%), while the S&P 500 (US500) was down 1.73% (for the week -3.64%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 2.55% (for the week -5.44%). The Dow Jones (US30) and S&P 500 (US500) fell to 3-week lows, while the NASDAQ (US100) fell to 4-week lows. Weakness in chip company stocks hurt the overall market on Friday, led by a 10% drop in Broadcom (AVGO) shares after the company gave a disappointing fourth-quarter earnings outlook. The weakness in the US labor market is a negative for the economy, and stocks rose less than expected after the US Nonfarm Payrolls rose less than expected in August, and the July employment number was revised downward.

US Nonfarm Payrolls for August rose by 142,000, weaker than expectations of 165,000. In addition, July Nonfarm Payrolls were revised downward to 89,000 from the previously announced 114,000. The August unemployment rate fell 0.1 to 4.2%, which aligned with expectations. Average hourly earnings in the US rose by 0.4% m/m and 3.8% y/y in August, slightly stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that it is now appropriate for the Central Bank to lower interest rates given the progress in reducing inflation and cooling the labor market.

As 2025 approaches, analysts at Capital Economics said this week that they expect a moderate recovery for most of the world’s major economies after a challenging second half of 2024. According to the company’s analysis, two key themes will drive advanced economies: normalizing inflation and loosening monetary policy, which should support GDP growth.

Canada’s unemployment rate climbed to 6.6%, the highest since October 2021, reflecting the Bank of Canada’s fears of a cooling labor market, as evidenced by its recent 25 bps rate cut. In addition, economic activity contracted for the first time in 13 months. Ivey’s PMI fell to 48.2, the lowest since December 2020, as employment growth slowed and price pressures intensified, further supporting the need for further easing.

Equity markets in Europe were declining on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 1.48% (for the week -3.23%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.07% (for the week -3.63%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down 0.89% (for the week -1.94%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.73% (for the week -2.33%). Eurozone GDP growth for the second quarter was revised downward to 0.2%, in line with concerns that restrictive monetary policy has a greater impact on the bloc’s economy, especially in its largest representative, Germany. Consequently, markets have increased bets that the central bank will stay on course for another 25 bps rate cut next week.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to hit $67.70 a barrel on Friday, the lowest since June 2023. As oil began to fall sharply in price, OPEC+ postponed a planned 180,000 barrels a day production increase until December, which would have added about 2.2 million barrels a day to the market by the end of next year. However, recent economic data from China and the US have highlighted weakness in their manufacturing sectors, raising concerns about further demand weakness.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 6.75%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 1.48%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 2.34%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.97% for the week. The Hang Seng Index (HK50) was near its lowest level in three weeks after fresh data showed that China’s consumer prices rose less than expected in August, and the decline in producer prices continued. The fall was topped by data on foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong, which hit a five-month high last month, while on the mainland, they were the highest since 2015.

China’s annual consumer prices rose to a six-month high of 0.6% in August 2024 from 0.5% in the previous month, although the increase fell short of the projection of a 0.7% rise. The moderate rise in consumer inflation reflects Beijing’s continued efforts to boost domestic consumption amid a slowing economy. Meanwhile, China’s producer prices continued their downward trend, falling 1.8% year-on-year in August, following a 0.8% decline in July and exceeding the expected 1.4% drop. This marked the 23rd consecutive month of producer price deflation and the sharpest decline since April, indicating continued weakness in domestic demand.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,408.42 −94.99 (−1.73%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,345.41 −410.34 (−1.01%)

DAX (DE40) 18,301.90 −274.60 (−1.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,181.47 −60.24 (−0.73%)

USD Index 101.19 +0.08 (+0.08%)

News feed for: 2024.09.09

Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 Sep

USDJPY pauses, but this is temporary

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USDJPY pair halted its decline around 142.98 on Monday. However, this pause in the yen’s rally should not be misleading, as it comes amid uncertainty surrounding the extent of the anticipated monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. The latest US employment report provided little information for adjusting forecasts of the Fed’s interest rate trajectory. Investors must assess fresh inflation data this week before drawing any fundamental conclusions.

Over the past week, the JPY strengthened by almost 3.0% against the US dollar. The USDJPY pair dropped to its annual low amid expectations of decisive action from the Bank of Japan. The BoJ is expected to raise rates by the end of the year, which will be supported by steady economic growth, wage increases, and ongoing inflationary pressure.

If the Bank of Japan’s monetary policymakers’ projections regarding macroeconomic aspects materialise, the central bank will be ready to adjust its monetary policy parameters more actively. Meanwhile, the latest data reflected weak GDP growth in Japan in Q2. The economy expanded by only 2.9% year-on-year, compared to the preliminary estimate of 3.1%.

Technical analysis of USDJPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around the 143.43 level. Due to recent news, the range has widened upwards to 144.00 and downwards to 141.76. Today, a rise towards the 143.43 level (testing from below) is possible, followed by a decline towards 141.70. Breaking this level could signal a continuation of the trend towards 139.70, with the potential for further development towards 137.77. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY completed a downward impulse towards 141.76 and a subsequent rise to 143.00. A new consolidation range has almost formed. Today, a breakout below the lower boundary of this range is likely, with the downward wave continuing towards 140.30 and potentially further towards 139.70. After reaching this level, a correction towards 143.43 is possible. This scenario is also technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 and pointing sharply downwards.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel (1,160 contracts) with Palladium (227 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-14,345 contracts), Gold (-6,887 contracts), Silver (-6,127 contracts) and with Copper (-4,184 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (17 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (97.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (100.0 percent)
Silver (79.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (88.0 percent)
Copper (45.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.2 percent)
Platinum (21.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.0 percent)
Palladium (16.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (82.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.7 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-29 percent) and Copper (-27 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.9 percent)
Silver (-7.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.8 percent)
Copper (-27.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.9 percent)
Platinum (-28.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.3 percent)
Steel (10.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 287,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.4	15.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	76.8	5.3
– Net Position:	287,558	-311,887	24,329
– Gross Longs:	339,157	80,416	51,198
– Gross Shorts:	51,599	392,303	26,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.2	4.0	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-4.2	-12.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	23.3	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.6	8.2
– Net Position:	46,059	-64,529	18,470
– Gross Longs:	64,099	30,538	29,148
– Gross Shorts:	18,040	95,067	10,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	22.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	10.3	-19.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.3	35.0	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	44.4	6.4
– Net Position:	12,961	-18,964	6,003
– Gross Longs:	77,290	70,738	18,996
– Gross Shorts:	64,329	89,702	12,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	54.1	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.2	29.0	-26.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	27.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	38.7	4.6
– Net Position:	1,388	-10,141	8,753
– Gross Longs:	41,924	23,587	12,771
– Gross Shorts:	40,536	33,728	4,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	64.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	26.8	12.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	61.5	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.5	8.9	7.0
– Net Position:	-11,633	11,622	11
– Gross Longs:	6,145	13,590	1,551
– Gross Shorts:	17,778	1,968	1,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	86.9	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	1.2	-38.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	69.8	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	50.9	1.2
– Net Position:	-3,732	3,836	-104
– Gross Longs:	4,066	14,153	135
– Gross Shorts:	7,798	10,317	239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	19.2	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.9	20.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

07 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators raised their Fed Funds and SOFR 3-Months bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (95,931 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (80,807 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (46,648 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (29,496 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24,032 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-88,390 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-62,403 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-62,439 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-18,810 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (100 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (93 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (46.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (31.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (28.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (40.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (35.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (72.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (78.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (100.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (86.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (38.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (55.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (92.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (88.7 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (79 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (26 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-40 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-30 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-22.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-4.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-29.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-22.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (10.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (79.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (69.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-40.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (25.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (34.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -90,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 95,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	70.3	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	63.9	2.5
– Net Position:	-90,734	106,172	-15,438
– Gross Longs:	226,762	1,163,911	25,969
– Gross Shorts:	317,496	1,057,739	41,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	53.6	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-5.5	-39.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 631,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 80,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 550,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	53.8	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	59.4	0.5
– Net Position:	631,571	-630,902	-669
– Gross Longs:	1,960,048	6,047,347	50,527
– Gross Shorts:	1,328,477	6,678,249	51,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.9	6.9	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-25.8	-1.0

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -104,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -62,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	63.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	53.5	0.1
– Net Position:	-104,183	104,828	-645
– Gross Longs:	193,472	683,928	332
– Gross Shorts:	297,655	579,100	977
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	61.4	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.3	40.1	2.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -982,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 46,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,029,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	77.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	57.9	2.5
– Net Position:	-982,462	814,688	167,774
– Gross Longs:	614,392	3,261,747	272,379
– Gross Shorts:	1,596,854	2,447,059	104,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	61.8	89.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-11.9	1.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,718,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -62,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,656,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	83.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	60.1	3.7
– Net Position:	-1,718,696	1,475,139	243,557
– Gross Longs:	548,634	5,348,029	478,777
– Gross Shorts:	2,267,330	3,872,890	235,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	99.1	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	11.1	8.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,002,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -88,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -914,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	78.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	61.1	7.0
– Net Position:	-1,002,827	846,839	155,988
– Gross Longs:	430,206	3,782,720	494,696
– Gross Shorts:	1,433,033	2,935,881	338,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	93.6	99.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.6	39.6	8.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -83,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	75.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	69.1	12.3
– Net Position:	-83,759	127,871	-44,112
– Gross Longs:	287,562	1,588,757	216,022
– Gross Shorts:	371,321	1,460,886	260,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	39.8	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-13.0	9.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,234 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	63.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	68.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-33,044	-85,532	118,576
– Gross Longs:	350,527	1,092,273	244,254
– Gross Shorts:	383,571	1,177,805	125,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-22.3	23.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -240,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 29,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -269,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	78.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	65.7	9.5
– Net Position:	-240,202	212,830	27,372
– Gross Longs:	159,543	1,320,086	187,073
– Gross Shorts:	399,745	1,107,256	159,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	79.1	-88.7	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

07 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Corn & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (58,051 contracts) with Sugar (24,887 contracts), Soybeans (22,241 contracts), Soybean Oil (21,488 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,966 contracts), Wheat (4,939 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,043 contracts) and Cocoa (1,738 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-3,440 contracts), Cotton (-1,079 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,986 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (88 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Wheat (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (3 percent), Soybeans (8 percent) and Live Cattle (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (22.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.0 percent)
Sugar (27.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.3 percent)
Coffee (88.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (91.1 percent)
Soybeans (8.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (34.4 percent)
Live Cattle (11.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (25.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (22.2 percent)
Cotton (2.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.5 percent)
Cocoa (42.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.8 percent)
Wheat (50.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (46.5 percent)

Corn & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (17 percent) and Lean Hogs (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (13 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and Soybean Meal (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-6 percent), Coffee (-3 percent) and Cotton (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (16.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.5 percent)
Sugar (13.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.9 percent)
Coffee (-2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.0 percent)
Soybeans (-5.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-0.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-6.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-14.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.3 percent)
Cotton (-2.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-6.4 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.1 percent)
Wheat (5.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -90,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 58,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	44.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	35.5	12.0
– Net Position:	-90,483	122,906	-32,423
– Gross Longs:	335,231	605,741	131,166
– Gross Shorts:	425,714	482,835	163,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	78.8	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-14.5	-29.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 72,802 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 24,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	54.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	64.2	7.2
– Net Position:	72,802	-78,891	6,089
– Gross Longs:	185,306	455,449	66,162
– Gross Shorts:	112,504	534,340	60,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	73.8	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-13.7	13.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 63,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.1	37.5	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	71.5	2.6
– Net Position:	63,921	-66,756	2,835
– Gross Longs:	80,574	73,587	8,016
– Gross Shorts:	16,653	140,343	5,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	11.7	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	2.3	2.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -162,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 22,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -184,266 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	65.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	42.7	7.5
– Net Position:	-162,025	184,576	-22,551
– Gross Longs:	111,107	538,620	39,691
– Gross Shorts:	273,132	354,044	62,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.3	94.4	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	8.7	-30.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	53.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	51.8	4.8
– Net Position:	-8,305	6,912	1,393
– Gross Longs:	133,596	283,945	26,951
– Gross Shorts:	141,901	277,033	25,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.9	66.3	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	3.9	-25.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	46.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	56.1	5.1
– Net Position:	29,015	-50,660	21,645
– Gross Longs:	122,853	242,812	48,556
– Gross Shorts:	93,838	293,472	26,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	57.6	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-3.6	18.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	36.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	43.1	13.0
– Net Position:	30,329	-18,370	-11,959
– Gross Longs:	95,135	109,383	26,606
– Gross Shorts:	64,806	127,753	38,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	100.0	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	19.8	0.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	38.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	33.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-7,742	12,341	-4,599
– Gross Longs:	97,199	95,993	17,559
– Gross Shorts:	104,941	83,652	22,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	75.8	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-16.4	-13.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	50.3	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	33.2	6.2
– Net Position:	-38,154	39,133	-979
– Gross Longs:	53,387	115,192	13,259
– Gross Shorts:	91,541	76,059	14,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	97.0	10.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	1.6	6.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	32.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	60.0	3.5
– Net Position:	31,930	-38,437	6,507
– Gross Longs:	52,248	44,648	11,329
– Gross Shorts:	20,318	83,085	4,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	53.5	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.6	6.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	35.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	26.7	9.4
– Net Position:	-27,742	33,399	-5,657
– Gross Longs:	134,551	134,830	29,968
– Gross Shorts:	162,293	101,431	35,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.4	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-5.7	2.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

07 Sep

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell Minis

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (33,089 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (15,541 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,641 contracts), the VIX (4,583 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (4,548 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-1,233 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-586 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (85 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) and DowJones-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (41 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (82.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (73.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (79.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (72.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (85.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (74.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (40.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (32.6 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent) and the Russell-Mini (41 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (35 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (28 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (34.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (34.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-5.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-6.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-11.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (24.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (40.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (22.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (29.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-10.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	47.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	40.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-25,889	24,890	999
– Gross Longs:	69,226	179,907	29,448
– Gross Shorts:	95,115	155,017	28,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	7.1	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.8	-44.3	37.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 33,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	68.9	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.2	8.0
– Net Position:	-48,819	-47,646	96,465
– Gross Longs:	322,215	1,451,604	265,814
– Gross Shorts:	371,034	1,499,250	169,349
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	33.3	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	6.6	-4.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	58.8	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	67.2	15.9
– Net Position:	7,136	-7,196	60
– Gross Longs:	19,772	50,054	13,594
– Gross Shorts:	12,636	57,250	13,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	27.8	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	10.8	-16.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	52.7	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	68.7	11.8
– Net Position:	25,988	-40,818	14,830
– Gross Longs:	67,895	133,799	44,849
– Gross Shorts:	41,907	174,617	30,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	7.8	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.2	-25.9	-5.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	72.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	75.1	4.4
– Net Position:	260	-12,603	12,343
– Gross Longs:	77,438	313,046	31,430
– Gross Shorts:	77,178	325,649	19,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	12.4	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.7	-36.6	-1.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	60.2	25.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	51.1	16.9
– Net Position:	-2,439	1,252	1,187
– Gross Longs:	1,939	8,230	3,499
– Gross Shorts:	4,378	6,978	2,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	35.2	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.0	-16.4	-18.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	88.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	84.3	1.5
– Net Position:	-26,037	18,072	7,965
– Gross Longs:	29,958	356,777	13,856
– Gross Shorts:	55,995	338,705	5,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	54.9	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.0	3.5

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Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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