Archive for COT Updates – Page 69

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

25 Sep

Soybean Meal Bullish Speculator bets leads weekly COT Soft Commodities changes

By InvestMacro

Soft Commodities Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soybean Meal leads positive Weekly Speculator Changes while Sugar see weekly drop

Soft Commodities Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (12,293 contracts) with Corn (11,108 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,953 contracts), Wheat (4,099 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,830 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,947 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-30,985 contracts) with Soybeans (-7,337 contracts), Cotton (-4,086 contracts), Coffee (-1,195 contracts) and Cocoa (-67 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Soft Commodities data is the gains in Soybean Meal speculator bets. Speculative net positions rose for a second straight week and for the ninth time out of the past twelve weeks. This recent bullishness has pushed Soybean Meal net positions to the highest level of the past 26 weeks, dating back to March 22nd of this year. The speculator positioning for this market currently represents the highest strength score among all the futures markets (50+ markets) we cover with a 97.9 percent score and an extreme bullish reading.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,481,5451239,8788-261,5689421,69036
Gold469,395565,7220-75,4281009,7060
Silver132,1070-1,64012-5,629907,2694
Copper163,0584-20,2862223,21582-2,9298
Palladium5,9931-1,081171,26182-18033
Platinum62,900272,39012-5,496893,1065
Natural Gas960,2361-155,71132121,3086934,40362
Brent164,02511-37,9034836,732541,17125
Heating Oil292,6343214,09763-25,9414411,84439
Soybeans656,3101884,77339-55,48570-29,28822
Corn1,330,8419305,67769-241,23838-64,4396
Coffee191,433541,07274-42,998301,92617
Sugar744,972837,34544-35,86061-1,4856
Wheat285,5670-4,029149,98274-5,95380

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (97.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (74.3 percent), Corn (69.1 percent) and Live Cattle (67.6 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (11.0 percent) and Wheat (13.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Soft Commodities Speculator Strength Scores
Strength Statistics:
Corn (69.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (67.7 percent)
Sugar (44.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (50.7 percent)
Coffee (74.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (75.4 percent)
Soybeans (39.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (41.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (97.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (91.0 percent)
Live Cattle (67.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (65.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (49.4 percent)
Cotton (46.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (49.3 percent)
Cocoa (11.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (11.0 percent)
Wheat (13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (27.3 percent) and Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) sentiment have led the positive moves  over the past six weeks. Corn (12.1 percent), Coffee (9.2 percent) and Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-1.3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the next markets with lower trend scores being Wheat (-0.8 percent), Cocoa (-0.4 percent) and Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent).

Soft Commodities Strength Score Trends (6 Week)
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.9 percent)
Sugar (2.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.0 percent)
Coffee (9.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-1.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (16.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (27.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (39.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.6 percent)
Cotton (5.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-0.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-9.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 305,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.544.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.662.613.6
– Net Position:305,677-241,238-64,439
– Gross Longs:432,909591,425116,001
– Gross Shorts:127,232832,663180,440
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.137.56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.1-11.5-8.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 37,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -30,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.057.08.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.061.88.9
– Net Position:37,345-35,860-1,485
– Gross Longs:164,043424,44364,709
– Gross Shorts:126,698460,30366,194
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.361.36.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-1.0-7.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.447.44.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.969.93.7
– Net Position:41,072-42,9981,926
– Gross Longs:52,37790,7269,048
– Gross Shorts:11,305133,7247,122
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.330.217.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.2-10.610.2

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.354.66.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.463.010.7
– Net Position:84,773-55,485-29,288
– Gross Longs:159,789358,17240,819
– Gross Shorts:75,016413,65770,107
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.469.621.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.32.3-5.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.150.37.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.966.85.6
– Net Position:57,411-66,7409,329
– Gross Longs:89,528203,40331,920
– Gross Shorts:32,117270,14322,591
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.458.248.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-19.316.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.239.912.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.078.66.4
– Net Position:126,470-151,85425,384
– Gross Longs:138,080156,67750,445
– Gross Shorts:11,610308,53125,061
– Long to Short Ratio:11.9 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.94.064.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-8.712.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.232.410.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.754.112.7
– Net Position:70,367-65,032-5,335
– Gross Longs:120,43296,99832,801
– Gross Shorts:50,065162,03038,136
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.624.275.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.3-24.1-17.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.834.39.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.854.313.3
– Net Position:50,115-41,565-8,550
– Gross Longs:89,17871,38519,095
– Gross Shorts:39,063112,95027,645
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.344.452.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.12.8-11.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.147.56.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.770.54.1
– Net Position:43,954-49,7135,759
– Gross Longs:71,269102,27614,638
– Gross Shorts:27,315151,9898,879
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.553.847.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-6.919.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -67 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.746.34.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.745.43.5
– Net Position:-5,9412,7793,162
– Gross Longs:97,755138,57213,754
– Gross Shorts:103,696135,79310,592
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.090.328.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.40.6-2.5

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.039.69.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.536.112.0
– Net Position:-4,0299,982-5,953
– Gross Longs:88,644113,05528,213
– Gross Shorts:92,673103,07334,166
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.873.979.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.80.12.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities
25 Sep

S&P500 Mini Futures led the Stock Market Speculator Bets before Fed Rate hike

By InvestMacro

Stock Market Open Interest

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The COT data this week is from the day before the US Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate 75 basis points to the 3 to 3.25 percent range. This data shows the trader positioning prior to the rate hike and considering the way the stock markets have gone since Wednesday, positions could have been reversed shortly after.

S&P500 Mini & VIX lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

Stocks Futures Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT stock market speculator bets were slightly lower through Tuesday as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the S&P500 Mini (61,553 contracts) with the VIX (16,728 contracts) and MSCI EAFE Mini (1,723 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets with declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq Mini (-8,321 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-7,686 contracts), Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-3,748 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT stocks data was the SP500 Mini speculator bets that jumped this week by over +60,000 contracts. This was the fourth week in the past five weeks that bets had improved for the SP-Mini. The positioning was likely heavily influenced by the Fed interest rate decision coming the day after (Wednesday) the data was collected. Digging into the data showed that the positive result for the SP500 Mini net positioning was due to a large number of traders reducing their gross short positions (by -75,190 contracts) on Tuesday. Speculators also reduced their gross long positions but by a much smaller number for the week (by -13,637 contracts). Overall, the SP500 Mini net position at -219,451 contracts remains extremely bearish and has been in a negative bearish position for the past fourteen straight weeks, dating back to June 21st.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,141,0221-219,45116313,69892-94,2477
Nikkei 22514,15110-4,641552,949441,69250
Nasdaq-Mini271,815553,4857721,58240-25,0674
DowJones-Mini65,49021-15,4341815,84080-40636
VIX345,34140-81,7986890,84233-9,04448
Nikkei 225 Yen42,355181043418,61174-18,71536

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (77.0 percent) and the VIX (68.3 percent) lead the stock markets for the week. The Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) comes in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores.

On the downside, the Russell2000-Mini (7.4 percent), the S&P500-Mini (15.5 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (17.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are all in extreme bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Stock Strength Scores

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (59.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (15.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (17.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (77.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (81.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (7.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (22.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (8.2 percent) and the EAFE-Mini (7.8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The S&P500-Mini (4.6 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (3.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) followed by the DowJones-Mini (-3.6 percent).

Stocks Strength Trends

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (8.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (0.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-9.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (9.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-7.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (3.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (7.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 16,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.056.66.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.730.38.9
– Net Position:-81,79890,842-9,044
– Gross Longs:45,066195,41321,807
– Gross Shorts:126,864104,57130,851
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.333.347.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-6.0-20.0

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -219,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 61,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -281,004 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.378.68.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.663.913.0
– Net Position:-219,451313,698-94,247
– Gross Longs:221,1581,681,942184,903
– Gross Shorts:440,6091,368,244279,150
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.592.36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.60.2-5.5

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,748 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.458.417.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.034.218.5
– Net Position:-15,43415,840-406
– Gross Longs:15,31638,24011,687
– Gross Shorts:30,75022,40012,093
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.880.236.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.6-1.821.7

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.160.910.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.853.019.7
– Net Position:3,48521,582-25,067
– Gross Longs:73,741165,61928,531
– Gross Shorts:70,256144,03753,598
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.039.84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.814.0-9.9

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.188.74.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.368.34.3
– Net Position:-106,838107,880-1,042
– Gross Longs:32,486470,31921,997
– Gross Shorts:139,324362,43923,039
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.491.624.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-5.010.9

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.253.334.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.032.522.3
– Net Position:-4,6412,9491,692
– Gross Longs:1,7297,5484,844
– Gross Shorts:6,3704,5993,152
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.444.449.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.8-1.337.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.392.12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.388.51.7
– Net Position:-15,70914,2601,449
– Gross Longs:20,659360,9398,009
– Gross Shorts:36,368346,6796,560
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.478.931.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.8-6.7-7.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates investing Opinions Stock Market News
25 Sep

WTI Crude Oil leads Energy Speculator Bet Changes this week

By InvestMacro

Energy Futures Open Interest OI Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil leads the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT energy market speculator bets were a little higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (12,821 contracts) with Gasoline (1,481 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (1,120 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-9,996 contracts) with Heating Oil (-1,967 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,481,5451239,8788-261,5689421,69036
Gold469,395565,7220-75,4281009,7060
Silver132,1070-1,64012-5,629907,2694
Copper163,0584-20,2862223,21582-2,9298
Palladium5,9931-1,081171,26182-18033
Platinum62,900272,39012-5,496893,1065
Natural Gas960,2361-155,71132121,3086934,40362
Brent164,02511-37,9034836,732541,17125
Heating Oil292,6343214,09763-25,9414411,84439
Soybeans656,3101884,77339-55,48570-29,28822
Corn1,330,8419305,67769-241,23838-64,4396
Coffee191,433541,07274-42,998301,92617
Sugar744,972837,34544-35,86061-1,4856
Wheat285,5670-4,029149,98274-5,95380

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) and Heating Oil (63.2 percent) lead the energy category this week and are the only two markets above their midpoint of the past three years (50 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (19.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent). Natural Gas (31.8 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) are the next lowest strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (4.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (45.7 percent)
Natural Gas (31.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (34.8 percent)
Gasoline (19.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.6 percent)
Heating Oil (63.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (66.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (67.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-10.5 percent)
Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.2 percent)
Gasoline (1.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-5.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-8.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (8.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 239,878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.139.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.957.43.5
– Net Position:239,878-261,56821,690
– Gross Longs:342,588589,44573,243
– Gross Shorts:102,710851,01351,553
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.793.736.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-6.3-9.5

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.653.74.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.831.34.0
– Net Position:-37,90336,7321,171
– Gross Longs:25,66388,0067,706
– Gross Shorts:63,56651,2746,535
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.654.425.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.27.2-8.5

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -155,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -145,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.943.56.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.230.83.3
– Net Position:-155,711121,30834,403
– Gross Longs:153,110417,43166,185
– Gross Shorts:308,821296,12331,782
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.869.261.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.110.9-10.1

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.549.67.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.168.56.8
– Net Position:47,073-48,1921,119
– Gross Longs:77,904126,88718,448
– Gross Shorts:30,831175,07917,329
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.185.120.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.62.0-24.2

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.854.713.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.063.69.3
– Net Position:14,097-25,94111,844
– Gross Longs:40,428160,16539,038
– Gross Shorts:26,331186,10627,194
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.243.639.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.311.2-0.6

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.270.00.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.355.30.1
– Net Position:-10,31710,031286
– Gross Longs:17,20047,853361
– Gross Shorts:27,51737,82275
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 14.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.031.920.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-9.00.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing
17 Sep

COT Forex Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, British Pound Sterling & Euro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Japanese Yen & British Pound Sterling

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (24,512 contracts) with the Mexican peso (4,079 contracts) and the Brazilian real (2,093 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Japanese yen (-22,503 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-17,654 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,485 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,268 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,555 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,350 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,196 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies this week was the further deterioration of the Japanese yen speculative positions. The yen speculator bets have now fallen for five straight weeks and by a total of -55,660 contracts over that period. This recent weakness followed an improvement in the yen positions in ten out of the previous thirteen weeks through August 9th. The overall speculator standing this week has dipped to the most bearish level of the past fourteen weeks, dating back to June 7th. The USDJPY currency pair has continued to see the dollar surge against the yen with the USDJPY above the 142.90 exchange rate to end the week. The pair has hit a high right below the 145.00 level for two straight weeks which is the highest exchange rate for the dollar versus the yen since September of 1998.

The British pound sterling speculator positions fell for a third consecutive week this week. The sterling bets have now declined by a total of -40,120 contracts over the past three weeks to bring the overall standing to a 14-week low. The GBPUSD currency pair has also dropped to a multi-decade low against the US dollar with the pound hitting a 37-year low this week. The GBPUSD closed the week just above the 1.1400 exchange rate after falling in four out of the past five weeks.

On the positive side of the COT data this week is the Euro. The European common currency bounced back this week with a strong +24,512 contracts and has now risen for two straight weeks. This recent improvement has taken the overall speculator standing to a level of just -11,837 contracts. With the EURUSD currency pair trading virtually at parity as it closed the week at the 1.0017 exchange rate, it is an interesting situation trying to read the large trader positioning. The speculators, especially in currencies, usually exhibit trend following behavior and would be expected to have a position of at least -100,000 contracts in this type of environment.

This could mean the speculators feel that the parity level will be close to the bottom for this pair and it is too risky to add to the short positioning. Or, the speculator short positioning could start to rise if the pair keeps its downtrend below parity. One thing for sure is that there are a huge amount of positions open in the market currently. The open interest level this week of 742,244 contracts is in the 99th percentile of the past three years. We know from open interest analysis that many times turning points coincide with peaks in open interest. However, with a possible recession for the Eurozone on the way combined with strong inflationary pressures and a potential energy crisis from the Russia-Ukraine war, the fundamental backdrop is very cloudy. It will undoubtedly take some time but will be very interesting to see how the large trader positioning and situation resolves itself.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index62,0779335,66984-38,380152,71146
EUR742,244100-11,83731-11,4237323,26013
GBP303,965100-68,0861187,32592-19,2397
JPY281,716100-80,6921998,29984-17,60718
CHF44,85331-7,3053816,51270-9,20726
CAD149,5563012,42553-13,476571,05132
AUD182,28769-57,8503167,01869-9,16830
NZD51,07946-5,301629,40845-4,1074
MXN208,40353-25,3811721,333824,04860
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL51,5824232,95383-34,577181,62484
Bitcoin13,0897412679-320019417

 

Strength Scores led by US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (82.8 percent) lead the currency markets near the top of their respective ranges and both are in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (79.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent).

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent), Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels and all three are in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (85.2 percent)
EuroFX (31.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (53.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.8 percent)
Brazil Real (82.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (80.7 percent)
Bitcoin (79.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (100.0 percent)

Brazilian Real leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Brazilian Real (33.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (15.2 percent), Bitcoin (12.3 percent) and the Euro (8.3 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) followed by the Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.4 percent)
EuroFX (8.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-1.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.2 percent)
Brazil Real (33.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,107 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.99.18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.470.94.2
– Net Position:35,669-38,3802,711
– Gross Longs:48,9845,6475,342
– Gross Shorts:13,31544,0272,631
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.1 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.414.846.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.16.0-1.1

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.055.312.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.656.88.8
– Net Position:-11,837-11,42323,260
– Gross Longs:207,778410,36488,806
– Gross Shorts:219,615421,78765,546
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.472.812.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-7.6-0.1

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.576.47.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.947.713.3
– Net Position:-68,08687,325-19,239
– Gross Longs:41,129232,34621,161
– Gross Shorts:109,215145,02140,400
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.992.47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.09.9-7.0

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -22,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.075.48.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.640.514.5
– Net Position:-80,69298,299-17,607
– Gross Longs:39,323212,37523,186
– Gross Shorts:120,015114,07640,793
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.283.617.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.423.4-20.5

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.260.220.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.523.441.4
– Net Position:-7,30516,512-9,207
– Gross Longs:7,70426,9889,355
– Gross Shorts:15,00910,47618,562
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.069.826.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.2-10.82.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.244.720.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.953.720.0
– Net Position:12,425-13,4761,051
– Gross Longs:48,10266,86630,933
– Gross Shorts:35,67780,34229,882
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.357.532.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.814.1-18.3

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.066.012.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.829.317.1
– Net Position:-57,85067,018-9,168
– Gross Longs:29,218120,39322,049
– Gross Shorts:87,06853,37531,217
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.268.930.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.83.7-7.3

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.153.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.535.312.9
– Net Position:-5,3019,408-4,107
– Gross Longs:17,94927,4582,498
– Gross Shorts:23,25018,0506,605
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.5 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.444.94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.37.0-9.5

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.842.83.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.032.61.6
– Net Position:-25,38121,3334,048
– Gross Longs:103,77289,2607,469
– Gross Shorts:129,15367,9273,421
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.581.760.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.00.37.2

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.812.06.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.979.03.1
– Net Position:32,953-34,5771,624
– Gross Longs:42,1926,1863,203
– Gross Shorts:9,23940,7631,579
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.817.583.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.5-33.2-0.8

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.44.27.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.56.65.7
– Net Position:126-320194
– Gross Longs:10,268546944
– Gross Shorts:10,142866750
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.149.017.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.3-27.4-3.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT excel data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions
17 Sep

Weekly COT Metals Speculator bets led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market having decreasing contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Silver (8,144 contracts) with Copper (5,004 contracts), Platinum (4,872 contracts) and Palladium (329 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold with a decline of -6,513 contracts the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week was Silver’s gain that stopped a streak of three straight weeks of declines. Silver speculator positions had fallen by a total of -16,292 contracts in the past three weeks to drop to the most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver price has been showing resilience between the $18 to $20 range over the past twelve weeks and closed this week over the $19.30 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,498,0593227,0574-244,0079816,95028
Gold463,674397,3442-110,9389913,5949
Silver135,5303-4,6409-2,551937,1914
Copper157,9000-18,9862320,51280-1,52616
Palladium6,0851-1,273161,45583-18233
Platinum68,57436-1,8797-2,051933,93017
Natural Gas977,1164-145,71535110,7946634,92163
Brent164,41512-39,0234634,919514,10465
Heating Oil290,9163116,06466-31,3533815,28951
Soybeans643,0181592,11042-61,42468-30,68619
Corn1,310,4116294,56968-234,17939-60,3908
Coffee197,6571042,26775-44,360292,09319
Sugar751,873968,33051-79,4265311,09622
Wheat287,0460-8,128812,97778-4,84985

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (22.7 percent) leads the metals markets and is just out of a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

On the downside, all the other markets are currently below 20 percent and in bearish extreme positions. Gold (1.8 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level and near the bottom of it 3-Year range. Platinum (6.6 percent), Silver (9.0 percent) and Palladium (15.7 percent) are the next lowest markets.


Strength Statistics:
Gold (1.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.0 percent)
Copper (22.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.8 percent)
Platinum (6.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.0 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.8 percent)

Strength Trends led by Palladium and Copper

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (6.6 percent) and Platinum (0.9 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-10.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by Silver with a -6.2 percent trend score.


Move Statistics:
Gold (-10.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (-6.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.1 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.0 percent)
Platinum (0.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.1 percent)
Palladium (7.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 97,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.727.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.751.35.8
– Net Position:97,344-110,93813,594
– Gross Longs:225,932126,95040,556
– Gross Shorts:128,588237,88826,962
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.899.19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.38.96.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.438.216.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.840.110.8
– Net Position:-4,640-2,5517,191
– Gross Longs:53,37351,82221,808
– Gross Shorts:58,01354,37314,617
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.092.83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.26.2-4.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.249.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.336.89.7
– Net Position:-18,98620,512-1,526
– Gross Longs:44,57478,68213,738
– Gross Shorts:63,56058,17015,264
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.779.616.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-5.3-7.3

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.638.611.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.341.65.3
– Net Position:-1,879-2,0513,930
– Gross Longs:30,55226,4737,567
– Gross Shorts:32,43128,5243,637
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.693.416.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-0.4-4.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.761.115.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.637.217.9
– Net Position:-1,2731,455-182
– Gross Longs:1,3823,720910
– Gross Shorts:2,6552,2651,092
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.782.933.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-7.20.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions
17 Sep

Weekly Bonds Speculator bets led by Fed Funds and Ultra 10-Year Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds and Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (29,311 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (23,388 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (15,926 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (10,818 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Eurodollar (-94,668 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-31,439 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (-15,568 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-9,754 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,494,35913-2,877,32203,227,08299-349,76027
FedFunds1,585,4274847,96146-33,14956-14,81222
2-Year2,008,78010-358,18110436,181100-78,00016
Long T-Bond1,225,02449-94,9715466,5283428,44375
10-Year3,639,62139-352,88919462,61377-109,72454
5-Year3,982,52750-521,4597676,94996-155,49038

 

US Treasury Bond at top of Bond Market Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (53.7 percent) led the bonds markets and is the only market above its 3-Year midpoint (above 50 percent). The Fed Funds (45.5 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (43.8 percent) come in as the next highest bond market in strength scores.

On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.2 percent), the 5-Year Bond (6.7 percent), the 2-Year Bond (9.9 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (18.8 percent) come in as the lowest markets and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (45.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (41.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (53.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (43.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (39.4 percent)
Eurodollar (0.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (1.9 percent)

Strength Trends show 2-Year Bond on sharp downtrend

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The Fed Funds (6.3 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-52.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the 5-Year Bond (-28.1 percent), US Treasury Bond (-12.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (6.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-15.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-52.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-47.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-28.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-26.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
Eurodollar (-1.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,877,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -94,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,782,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.471.44.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.837.48.1
– Net Position:-2,877,3223,227,082-349,760
– Gross Longs:612,2956,777,674415,183
– Gross Shorts:3,489,6173,550,592764,943
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.298.727.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.71.60.3

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 29,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.470.02.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.472.13.3
– Net Position:47,961-33,149-14,812
– Gross Longs:228,5681,110,14137,571
– Gross Shorts:180,6071,143,29052,383
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.555.922.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.3-5.7-8.5

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -358,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -31,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -326,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.085.67.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.863.911.0
– Net Position:-358,181436,181-78,000
– Gross Longs:100,1961,720,285142,700
– Gross Shorts:458,3771,284,104220,700
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.9100.016.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-52.248.12.2

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -521,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -505,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.984.57.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.067.511.4
– Net Position:-521,459676,949-155,490
– Gross Longs:276,6683,365,483299,655
– Gross Shorts:798,1272,688,534455,145
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.795.838.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.130.0-16.6

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -352,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.279.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.967.112.3
– Net Position:-352,889462,613-109,724
– Gross Longs:297,0342,903,201336,640
– Gross Shorts:649,9232,440,588446,364
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.876.854.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.79.5-5.4

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.379.09.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.870.617.0
– Net Position:-6,786114,915-108,129
– Gross Longs:128,4331,087,797126,105
– Gross Shorts:135,219972,882234,234
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.069.855.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-9.65.3

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -94,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.076.614.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.871.111.7
– Net Position:-94,97166,52828,443
– Gross Longs:73,918937,965171,546
– Gross Shorts:168,889871,437143,103
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.734.375.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.78.312.5

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -346,597 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -357,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.882.110.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.959.58.2
– Net Position:-346,597310,61235,985
– Gross Longs:79,3751,129,862148,787
– Gross Shorts:425,972819,250112,802
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.867.054.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.31.3-5.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News investing
17 Sep

Weekly Soft Commodities Speculator bets led higher by Soybeans, Sugar and Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Soybeans, Sugar and Corn

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while XX markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybeans (10,859 contracts) and Sugar (10,559 contracts) with Corn (8,022 contracts), Soybean Meal (7,042 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,799 contracts), Live Cattle (5,590 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,821 contracts) and Wheat (1,631 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Cocoa (-10,338 contracts) and Coffee (-4,901 contracts) with Cotton (-2,672 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,498,0593227,0574-244,0079816,95028
Gold463,674397,3442-110,9389913,5949
Silver135,5303-4,6409-2,551937,1914
Copper157,9000-18,9862320,51280-1,52616
Palladium6,0851-1,273161,45583-18233
Platinum68,57436-1,8797-2,051933,93017
Natural Gas977,1164-145,71535110,7946634,92163
Brent164,41512-39,0234634,919514,10465
Heating Oil290,9163116,06466-31,3533815,28951
Soybeans643,0181592,11042-61,42468-30,68619
Corn1,310,4116294,56968-234,17939-60,3908
Coffee197,6571042,26775-44,360292,09319
Sugar751,873968,33051-79,4265311,09622
Wheat287,0460-8,128812,97778-4,84985

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (91.0 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (75.4 percent) and Corn (67.7 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (8.5 percent) and Cocoa (11.0 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (66.6 percent)
Sugar (50.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (48.5 percent)
Coffee (75.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (79.6 percent)
Soybeans (41.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (38.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (91.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (87.1 percent)
Live Cattle (65.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (49.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (46.3 percent)
Cotton (49.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.2 percent)
Cocoa (11.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.3 percent)
Wheat (8.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (39.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Oil (16.6 percent), Coffee (13.0 percent) and Corn (11.9 percent) fill out the next highest top movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-9.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cocoa (-3.9 percent) followed by Lean Hogs (-0.6 percent) and Soybeans (-0.1 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.8 percent)
Sugar (7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-1.3 percent)
Coffee (13.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.0 percent)
Soybeans (-0.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.3 percent)
Live Cattle (39.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.0 percent)
Cotton (7.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.0 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.0 percent)
Wheat (-9.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 294,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 286,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.444.98.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.962.813.5
– Net Position:294,569-234,179-60,390
– Gross Longs:424,311588,143116,795
– Gross Shorts:129,742822,322177,185
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.738.58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-12.1-4.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.354.19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.264.67.5
– Net Position:68,330-79,42611,096
– Gross Longs:182,761406,40967,735
– Gross Shorts:114,431485,83556,639
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.753.121.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.0-8.412.7

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 42,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.747.44.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.369.83.6
– Net Position:42,267-44,3602,093
– Gross Longs:54,74993,6139,237
– Gross Shorts:12,482137,9737,144
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.429.018.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.0-14.912.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.454.26.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.163.811.0
– Net Position:92,110-61,424-30,686
– Gross Longs:163,326348,79540,216
– Gross Shorts:71,216410,21970,902
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.767.819.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.11.3-6.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.751.08.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.067.25.6
– Net Position:54,581-64,4179,836
– Gross Longs:86,257203,17032,312
– Gross Shorts:31,676267,58722,476
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.459.750.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.6-20.632.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 114,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.242.312.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.478.26.6
– Net Position:114,177-137,76623,589
– Gross Longs:127,398162,43748,950
– Gross Shorts:13,221300,20325,361
– Long to Short Ratio:9.6 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.011.355.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.5-2.96.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.032.810.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.153.912.5
– Net Position:68,420-62,992-5,428
– Gross Longs:116,37597,89631,907
– Gross Shorts:47,955160,88837,335
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.227.066.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:39.5-35.6-20.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.036.79.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.351.913.9
– Net Position:39,162-30,253-8,909
– Gross Longs:75,48072,96618,664
– Gross Shorts:36,318103,21927,573
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.457.750.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.61.9-5.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 48,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.845.66.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.971.73.7
– Net Position:48,040-54,6856,645
– Gross Longs:74,99295,65914,436
– Gross Shorts:26,952150,3447,791
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.350.653.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-10.231.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.846.64.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.746.03.6
– Net Position:-5,8741,9173,957
– Gross Longs:98,670140,38814,705
– Gross Shorts:104,544138,47110,748
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.089.436.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.91.820.7

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.741.59.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.537.011.5
– Net Position:-8,12812,977-4,849
– Gross Longs:88,091119,21928,202
– Gross Shorts:96,219106,24233,051
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.578.185.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.63.027.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Reports: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities
17 Sep

Natural Gas and Gasoline lead the COT Energy Speculator bets lower

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Natural Gas and Gasoline

The COT energy market speculator bets were sharply lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil  with a total gain on the week of 12,579 contracts.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-7,077 contracts), Gasoline (-3,574 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-2,635 contracts) with Heating Oil (-1,796 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (-14 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,498,0593227,0574-244,0079816,95028
Gold463,674397,3442-110,9389913,5949
Silver135,5303-4,6409-2,551937,1914
Copper157,9000-18,9862320,51280-1,52616
Palladium6,0851-1,273161,45583-18233
Platinum68,57436-1,8797-2,051933,93017
Natural Gas977,1164-145,71535110,7946634,92163
Brent164,41512-39,0234634,919514,10465
Heating Oil290,9163116,06466-31,3533815,28951
Soybeans643,0181592,11042-61,42468-30,68619
Corn1,310,4116294,56968-234,17939-60,3908
Coffee197,6571042,26775-44,360292,09319
Sugar751,873968,33051-79,4265311,09622
Wheat287,0460-8,128812,97778-4,84985

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) and Heating Oil (66.1 percent) lead the energy markets. These two markets are the only ones in energy that are above the 3-year midpoint at the current time (above 50 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (4.3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level followed by Gasoline (17.6 percent) and both are in bearish extreme readings (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (4.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (1.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (50.1 percent)
Natural Gas (34.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (37.0 percent)
Gasoline (17.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (21.2 percent)
Heating Oil (66.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (68.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (67.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Brent Crude Oil (-10.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is followed by Heating Oil (-8.8 percent), WTI Crude Oil (-7.0 percent), Natural Gas (-6.2 percent) and Gasoline (-5.2 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-7.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-10.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (8.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.1 percent)
Gasoline (-5.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (3.8 percent)
Heating Oil (-8.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (20.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 227,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 214,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.740.15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.656.43.9
– Net Position:227,057-244,00716,950
– Gross Longs:340,716600,61875,790
– Gross Shorts:113,659844,62558,840
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.398.428.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.07.8-3.6

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -39,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.753.75.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.432.53.3
– Net Position:-39,02334,9194,104
– Gross Longs:27,45588,3219,542
– Gross Shorts:66,47853,4025,438
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.751.364.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.55.142.7

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -145,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.042.86.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.931.53.3
– Net Position:-145,715110,79434,921
– Gross Longs:155,945418,58067,120
– Gross Shorts:301,660307,78632,199
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.865.862.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.27.3-5.8

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.548.67.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.267.07.1
– Net Position:45,592-45,909317
– Gross Longs:76,103121,49118,029
– Gross Shorts:30,511167,40017,712
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.687.314.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.210.9-41.0

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.155.014.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.665.89.0
– Net Position:16,064-31,35315,289
– Gross Longs:41,005160,00041,349
– Gross Shorts:24,941191,35326,060
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.137.951.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.84.36.8

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.970.40.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.255.60.2
– Net Position:-10,43410,122312
– Gross Longs:18,40248,090447
– Gross Shorts:28,83637,968135
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 13.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.632.221.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.4-8.73.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Reports: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing
17 Sep

COT Stock Market Speculator bets sharply down led by S&P500 Mini & the Nasdaq Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by the S&P500 Mini & the Nasdaq Mini

The COT stock market speculator bets had a down week this week as all of the seven stock markets we cover had lower positioning.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-42,284 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (-10,240 contracts), VIX (-9,792 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-6,664 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-3,547 contracts), Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-2,078 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts) also recording lower bets for the week.

Overall, the stock markets we cover all have current negative or bearish net positioning with the exception of the Nasdaq Mini.

Highlighting the weakness in sentiment is the S&P500 Mini which has hit its lowest speculative positioning (-281,004 contracts currently) in the past 117 weeks, dating back to June of 2020. The S&P500 Mini speculator positions have now been below the -200,000 contract threshold for ten straight weeks. The S&P Mini has been in a bearish level for thirteen consecutive weeks since turning bearish on June 21st.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,603,04620-281,0044370,284100-89,2808
Nikkei 22514,15110-4,641552,949441,69250
Nasdaq-Mini314,9698011,8068215,54536-27,3510
DowJones-Mini92,57759-11,6862313,52277-1,83629
VIX348,67241-98,52660105,68041-7,15457
Nikkei 225 Yen46,260231,0333721,75480-22,78728

 

Nasdaq-Mini, VIX and Nikkei lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini continues to leads the stocks with an 81.6 percent score. The Nasdaq strength score in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent) but has been sliding over the past few weeks. The VIX (59.9 percent) and the Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores and their scores are above the 3-year midpoints (50 percent).

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (4.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level followed by the Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) and both markets are in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (64.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (22.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (25.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (81.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (13.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (20.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.8 percent)

EAFE, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EAFE-Mini (15.4 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The DowJones-Mini (9.0 percent) and the VIX (0.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the S&P500-Mini (-9.1 percent) followed by the Nasdaq-Mini (-7.2 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (0.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (1.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-9.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (15.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-7.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-5.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (15.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -98,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.258.98.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.428.610.3
– Net Position:-98,526105,680-7,154
– Gross Longs:42,480205,32528,804
– Gross Shorts:141,00699,64535,958
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.940.656.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.2-0.1-0.1

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -281,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -42,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.076.310.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.862.114.3
– Net Position:-281,004370,284-89,280
– Gross Longs:234,7951,986,386282,571
– Gross Shorts:515,7991,616,102371,851
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.1100.07.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.110.5-5.9

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.357.613.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.943.015.0
– Net Position:-11,68613,522-1,836
– Gross Longs:20,66253,29812,067
– Gross Shorts:32,34839,77613,903
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.777.128.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-12.614.5

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.958.212.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.253.321.0
– Net Position:11,80615,545-27,351
– Gross Longs:75,279183,44038,679
– Gross Shorts:63,473167,89566,030
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.636.10.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.215.2-22.4

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -99,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.486.34.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.367.86.0
– Net Position:-99,152107,746-8,594
– Gross Longs:37,156504,08026,407
– Gross Shorts:136,308396,33435,001
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.791.61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.7-8.2-15.5

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.253.334.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.032.522.3
– Net Position:-4,6412,9491,692
– Gross Longs:1,7297,5484,844
– Gross Shorts:6,3704,5993,152
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.444.449.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.8-1.337.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.290.05.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.886.84.8
– Net Position:-17,43215,6271,805
– Gross Longs:20,356438,60725,389
– Gross Shorts:37,788422,98023,584
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.580.434.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-11.4-30.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News investing Stock Market News
11 Sep

COT Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

By InvestMacro

Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that large forex speculators raised their bets for most of the currency futures markets. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian real (22,001 contracts) and the Euro (11,327 contracts) with the Australian dollar (893 contracts), US Dollar Index (592 contracts), New Zealand dollar (378 contracts) and the Bitcoin (26 contracts) having positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the British pound sterling (-21,262 contracts) and the Japanese yen (-16,658 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-6,269 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,775 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-430 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency changes this week is the sharp gain in the Brazilian Real speculator positions this week. Speculators boosted the Brazilian currency bets by the largest weekly amount since March and have increased bullish bets in six out of the past eight weeks. The overall speculator standing now sits at the most bullish level in ten weeks, dating back to June 28th. The Real futures and spot prices have been range-bound in trading and are expected to stay that way as a presidential election comes up on October 2nd.

The Euro currency bets this week jumped by the most in fourteen weeks (+11,327 contracts) as the European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on Thursday. This week’s gain broke a streak of three weeks of speculator bet declines. The overall speculator positioning is relatively tame at a level of just -36,349 contracts despite the Euro currency’s exchange rate versus the US Dollar. The EURUSD is currently trading right near parity (1.0048) and not too far from 20-year lows. Comparatively, when the Euro speculator positions were last consistently near or below -100,000 net contracts in 2019, the EURUSD was trading above the 1.20 exchange rate. The outlook for the European economy is not looking great as a low growth environment could combine with a potential energy crisis shaping up for this winter (due to the Russia-Ukraine war) – so it will be interesting to see if speculator positioning follows the Euro lower or if the exchange rate is near a bottom.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index61,6629236,10785-38,458152,35142
EUR721,67891-36,3492419,6108216,7392
GBP280,937100-50,4322969,95878-19,5266
JPY281,266100-58,1893377,66974-19,48014
CHF48,22637-4,0374616,86770-12,83014
CAD160,5673717,91059-18,916531,00632
AUD178,23266-56,5003263,78466-7,28435
NZD46,79637-2,746676,50040-3,7548
MXN199,16149-29,4601525,310834,15061
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL50,0054030,86081-32,482201,62284
Bitcoin15,337901,322100-1,3010-2112

 

Bitcoin, US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real at top of Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (100.0 percent), the US Dollar Index (85.2 percent) and the Brazilian Real (80.7 percent) lead the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are all in bullish extreme positions with scores above 80 percent. The New Zealand Dollar (66.7 percent) and Canadian Dollar (59.5 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (14.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level below 20 percent. The next lowest strength scores are for the EuroFX (23.8 percent), the British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (32.4 percent).

Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (85.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (84.2 percent)
EuroFX (23.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (20.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (43.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (50.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (66.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (66.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.0 percent)
Brazil Real (80.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (59.1 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (99.5 percent)

Bitcoin, Real and Swiss Franc lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Bitcoin (25.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (18.8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (18.4 percent) fill out the next highest movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-8.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the only other market with a lower trend scores was the US Dollar Index (-7.4 percent).

Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.9 percent)
EuroFX (1.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-1.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (21.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (2.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.7 percent)
Brazil Real (18.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-1.6 percent)
Bitcoin (25.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:85.33.18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.865.55.1
– Net Position:36,107-38,4582,351
– Gross Longs:52,6071,9125,476
– Gross Shorts:16,50040,3703,125
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.214.742.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.47.7-4.7

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.456.711.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.554.09.2
– Net Position:-36,34919,61016,739
– Gross Longs:205,277409,46083,493
– Gross Shorts:241,626389,85066,754
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.881.62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.60.3-10.2

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.867.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.742.615.0
– Net Position:-50,43269,958-19,526
– Gross Longs:52,731189,61722,607
– Gross Shorts:103,163119,65942,133
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.278.46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-0.7-5.8

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,531 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.968.08.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.640.315.5
– Net Position:-58,18977,669-19,480
– Gross Longs:56,002191,13824,109
– Gross Shorts:114,191113,46943,589
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.073.513.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.01.9-14.6

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.655.119.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.920.146.6
– Net Position:-4,03716,867-12,830
– Gross Longs:10,88226,5849,620
– Gross Shorts:14,9199,71722,450
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 12.7 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.370.414.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.4-6.0-11.9

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.641.420.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.553.219.9
– Net Position:17,910-18,9161,006
– Gross Longs:57,18566,48533,039
– Gross Shorts:39,27585,40132,033
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.553.032.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.42.7-10.9

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.766.710.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.430.915.0
– Net Position:-56,50063,784-7,284
– Gross Longs:33,305118,81719,403
– Gross Shorts:89,80555,03326,687
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.466.534.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.59.8-9.9

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.755.35.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.541.513.4
– Net Position:-2,7466,500-3,754
– Gross Longs:17,16525,9002,540
– Gross Shorts:19,91119,4006,294
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.3 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.740.48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.4-1.7-3.8

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.845.63.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.632.91.6
– Net Position:-29,46025,3104,150
– Gross Longs:97,11290,8827,269
– Gross Shorts:126,57265,5723,119
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.883.460.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.2-0.64.7

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.914.46.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.279.33.5
– Net Position:30,860-32,4821,622
– Gross Longs:39,4517,1773,374
– Gross Shorts:8,59139,6591,752
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.719.683.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-19.48.5

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 26 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:83.10.46.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.58.96.4
– Net Position:1,322-1,301-21
– Gross Longs:12,74363956
– Gross Shorts:11,4211,364977
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.01.312.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.2-57.5-5.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our Weekly COT Newsletter by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

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