COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 27

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency Speculators pared back bets before Fed Interest Rate Reduction

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by the Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Swiss Franc (4,196 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,425 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (1,070 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-27,309 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-26,080 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-19,303 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-18,412 contracts), the EuroFX (-11,787 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,197 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,942 contracts) and Bitcoin (-620 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators pared back bets before Fed Interest Rate Reduction

Highlighting the COT data for the week was the sharp pullback in positions for most of the major currencies. The COT data is updated through Tuesday, September 17th which was one day before the Federal Reserve decreased the US interest rate by 50 basis points. The uncertainty of the Fed meeting outcome spurred speculators to reduce their positions and this can be seen by the strong decline in the open interest levels this week. Open interest measures the amount of open positions in the market and a fall in open interest means those positions were closed out or found an offsetting buyer or seller. Many of the major currencies experienced the largest open interest decreases of the year on Tuesday.

Weekly Forex Roundup:

The US dollar index saw the fourth highest weekly decline in speculator bets on record this week with a shortfall by -18,412 contracts. This broke a three-week streak of rising bullish positions and drops the overall bullish level back to just +1,798 contracts – the lowest level since May. The dollar index exchange rate is hovering around the significant level of 100.00 with this week’s close at 100.74 and has decreased in seven out of the past eight weeks.

The Australian dollar speculators dropped their bets by over -26,000 contracts this week to bring the total spec standing to -40,122 contracts. The AUD speculator standing remains bearish but has come off the lows of earlier in the year. The AUD positioning had fallen to a record bearish level in March at a total of -107,538 contracts before turning around. The AUD exchange rate has been bouncing around in a range approximately between 0.60 and 0.70 for the past few years and is currently near the top of that range at 0.6807 this week.

The British pound sterling bets dropped by -27,309 contracts this week following a decline by -17,790 contracts last week. The overall position remains bullish with a total standing of +62,979 contracts this week. The GBP positioning has had a strong bullish tilt this year and hit an all-time record high position in July at a total of +142,183 contracts. The GBP exchange versus the USD has been on the rise as well with the GBP hitting the highest level since 2022 with a close at 1.3322 this week. The GBP is now up over 25 percent from the low-point reached in September of 2022.

The Mexican peso positioning fell sharply this week by over -18,000 contracts. The peso speculator positions have been deteriorating sharply since June and have now fallen for eleven straight weeks through Tuesday. From March 5th to June 11th, the peso spec standing had been over +100,000 contracts in each of those fifteen weeks. Since then, peso bets have declined and now stand at just +7,723 contracts which is the lowest level since March 7th of 2023, a span of eighty weeks. The peso exchange rate has been on the downtrend since hitting an almost decade high in April of this year. The peso has fallen by approximately fifteen percent since the April high and has declined for four out of the past five weeks.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by the Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) led the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (66 percent), the British Pound (64 percent), Australian Dollar (57 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (55 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (8 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Brazilian Real (21 percent), the Mexican Peso (35 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (7.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.1 percent)
EuroFX (50.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (55.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (64.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (76.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (66.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (57.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (55.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (56.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (78.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (35.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (44.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (23.3 percent)
Bitcoin (51.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (61.1 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (49 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (28 percent), the Brazilian Real (21 percent) and the EuroFX (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-28 percent), Bitcoin (-23 percent) and the British Pound (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-30.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.9 percent)
EuroFX (15.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-5.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-9.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (53.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (10.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (26.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (15.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-28.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-19.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (10.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-22.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (9.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.2	22.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.9	21.6	15.4
– Net Position:	1,798	83	-1,881
– Gross Longs:	15,897	5,438	1,935
– Gross Shorts:	14,099	5,355	3,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	100.0	3.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.6	33.3	-15.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 69,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	57.0	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	73.9	6.2
– Net Position:	69,646	-114,402	44,756
– Gross Longs:	182,281	386,396	86,454
– Gross Shorts:	112,635	500,798	41,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	46.4	72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-21.2	46.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	22.4	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	59.9	9.9
– Net Position:	62,979	-79,751	16,772
– Gross Longs:	124,822	47,645	37,880
– Gross Shorts:	61,843	127,396	21,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	29.7	97.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	0.5	21.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.8	28.5	21.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	64.6	13.8
– Net Position:	56,840	-71,839	14,999
– Gross Longs:	97,332	56,915	42,545
– Gross Shorts:	40,492	128,754	27,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-31.5	38.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -17,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	59.7	24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	29.5	25.6
– Net Position:	-17,108	17,728	-620
– Gross Longs:	8,579	34,982	14,395
– Gross Shorts:	25,687	17,254	15,015
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	28.4	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-18.6	29.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	77.1	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	50.6	10.6
– Net Position:	-73,150	68,061	5,089
– Gross Longs:	21,464	197,838	32,218
– Gross Shorts:	94,614	129,777	27,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	44.2	45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.6	-48.3	26.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -40,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	50.1	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.4	31.3	11.4
– Net Position:	-40,122	31,978	8,144
– Gross Longs:	53,941	85,069	27,547
– Gross Shorts:	94,063	53,091	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	41.2	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-8.8	35.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	46.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	46.8	7.0
– Net Position:	-1,890	-262	2,152
– Gross Longs:	20,758	22,813	5,579
– Gross Shorts:	22,648	23,075	3,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	55.1	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.6	-35.5	57.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,026 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.1	57.4	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	62.2	4.4
– Net Position:	7,723	-6,352	-1,371
– Gross Longs:	48,486	74,941	4,349
– Gross Shorts:	40,763	81,293	5,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	65.9	8.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.3	27.5	-0.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,364 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	69.1	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.3	20.6	4.0
– Net Position:	-32,306	32,321	-15
– Gross Longs:	15,913	46,077	2,665
– Gross Shorts:	48,219	13,756	2,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	79.5	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.4	-20.4	-4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.0	5.0	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.1	3.1	2.8
– Net Position:	-973	596	377
– Gross Longs:	23,866	1,544	1,238
– Gross Shorts:	24,839	948	861
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.8	79.9	21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	33.5	4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

21 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (27,565 contracts) with Silver (13,556 contracts), Platinum (11,975 contracts), Copper (6,870 contracts) and with Palladium (3,988 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decrease was Steel with a shortfall by -346 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (81 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (89.3 percent)
Silver (96.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (77.9 percent)
Copper (51.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.2 percent)
Platinum (76.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.7 percent)
Palladium (50.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.4 percent)
Steel (81.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.7 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (46 percent) and Platinum (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (28 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (0 percent) is the lowest trend score currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (27.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.9 percent)
Silver (12.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.8 percent)
Copper (0.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-10.9 percent)
Platinum (31.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.5 percent)
Palladium (45.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.4 percent)
Steel (7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (8.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 310,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 282,501 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.8	13.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	76.2	5.2
– Net Position:	310,066	-335,127	25,061
– Gross Longs:	369,734	74,647	52,976
– Gross Shorts:	59,668	409,774	27,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.6	-24.2	-18.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	20.0	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	75.0	7.1
– Net Position:	58,298	-77,306	19,008
– Gross Longs:	74,978	28,131	29,005
– Gross Shorts:	16,680	105,437	9,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.3	8.3	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-8.5	-7.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	34.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	46.9	5.9
– Net Position:	19,682	-25,602	5,920
– Gross Longs:	79,235	70,413	17,898
– Gross Shorts:	59,553	96,015	11,978
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	48.4	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	2.3	-16.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	24.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	58.2	5.3
– Net Position:	21,978	-27,031	5,053
– Gross Longs:	42,679	19,028	9,283
– Gross Shorts:	20,701	46,059	4,230
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	19.5	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-29.6	-9.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	58.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.7	20.1	11.1
– Net Position:	-7,000	7,226	-226
– Gross Longs:	5,102	10,983	1,853
– Gross Shorts:	12,102	3,757	2,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.7	55.5	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.8	-34.6	-66.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	72.4	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	57.3	1.0
– Net Position:	-3,923	3,795	128
– Gross Longs:	3,807	18,213	376
– Gross Shorts:	7,730	14,418	248
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	19.1	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-8.4	24.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

21 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Gold, Yen, Fed Funds & VIX lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Gold speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 27.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 310,066 net contracts this week with a gain of 27,565 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 28.3 this week. The speculator position registered 56,840 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 1,070 contracts in speculator bets.

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Fed Funds speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 54.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 178,807 net contracts this week with a surge of 235,228 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 37.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -6,513 net contracts this week with an increase by 8,598 contracts in the speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Silver speculator level sits at a 96.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12.5 this week.

The speculator position was 58,298 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,556 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,094,026 net contracts this week with a drop of -71,921 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 0.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.3 this week. The speculator position was -13,385 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,424 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level resides at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 145,328 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,314 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 7.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.2 this week. The speculator position was 16,749 net contracts this week with an increase of 1,112 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 7.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -30.6 this week. The speculator position was 1,798 net contracts this week with a drop of -18,412 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

21 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (235,228 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (126,136 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10,506 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-77,632 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-71,921 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-44,450 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-45,481 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-20,204 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-15,145 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (100 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (95 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (84 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 10-Year Bond (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (100.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (50.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (28.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (30.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (48.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (46.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (45.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (61.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (84.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (91.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (18.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (94.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (98.7 percent)

Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (55 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) was the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-45.7 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-25 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-18 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (54.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (32.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (5.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-24.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-23.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-6.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (47.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (73.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-45.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-41.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (15.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (29.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 178,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 235,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,421 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	53.6	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	60.5	2.8
– Net Position:	178,807	-155,837	-22,970
– Gross Longs:	564,701	1,215,899	40,036
– Gross Shorts:	385,894	1,371,736	63,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.7	-52.3	-20.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 666,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -77,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 744,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	54.5	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	60.2	0.4
– Net Position:	666,595	-675,562	8,967
– Gross Longs:	2,000,550	6,449,299	50,395
– Gross Shorts:	1,333,955	7,124,861	41,428
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	4.6	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.2	7.0

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -180,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -44,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	64.5	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	50.6	0.3
– Net Position:	-180,527	184,536	-4,009
– Gross Longs:	219,572	856,650	379
– Gross Shorts:	400,099	672,114	4,388
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	82.4	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.7	46.4	-24.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,026,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,006,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	77.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	56.9	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,026,420	867,872	158,548
– Gross Longs:	637,164	3,321,163	279,299
– Gross Shorts:	1,663,584	2,453,291	120,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	65.7	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-4.9	-3.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,593,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 126,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,719,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	82.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	60.5	4.0
– Net Position:	-1,593,860	1,391,327	202,533
– Gross Longs:	607,540	5,260,229	455,505
– Gross Shorts:	2,201,400	3,868,902	252,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	91.7	91.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-3.8	-8.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,094,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -71,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,022,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	79.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	60.6	6.7
– Net Position:	-1,094,026	943,854	150,172
– Gross Longs:	431,039	3,910,709	479,362
– Gross Shorts:	1,525,065	2,966,855	329,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	98.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	36.5	2.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -45,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	73.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	68.8	12.9
– Net Position:	-45,640	105,997	-60,357
– Gross Longs:	325,963	1,559,701	212,603
– Gross Shorts:	371,603	1,453,704	272,960
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	33.9	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.7	-21.5	-23.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -109,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	65.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	65.2	7.7
– Net Position:	-109,711	-2,942	112,653
– Gross Longs:	358,317	1,142,280	247,909
– Gross Shorts:	468,028	1,145,222	135,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	27.9	96.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	11.2	12.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -274,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -259,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	77.4	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	64.2	9.0
– Net Position:	-274,303	228,728	45,575
– Gross Longs:	176,456	1,335,723	200,411
– Gross Shorts:	450,759	1,106,995	154,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.2	8.0	72.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.3	-64.6	34.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Sep

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (8,598 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (6,446 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-63,560 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-11,500 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-6,393 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-2,741 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (87 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (84 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (25 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (91.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (46.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (84.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (73.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (78.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (87.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (89.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (25.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (37.4 percent)

VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (37 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (12 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (10 percent) and the Russell-Mini (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (37.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (34.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-23.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-10.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (10.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (36.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-20.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-10.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,598 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,111 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	42.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	39.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-6,513	11,303	-4,790
– Gross Longs:	73,617	150,291	25,574
– Gross Shorts:	80,130	138,988	30,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.1	-45.3	34.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -122,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -63,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	72.1	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	70.7	7.4
– Net Position:	-122,948	37,745	85,203
– Gross Longs:	298,516	1,860,927	277,262
– Gross Shorts:	421,464	1,823,182	192,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	45.1	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	21.6	0.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	56.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	73.1	15.1
– Net Position:	14,614	-15,981	1,367
– Gross Longs:	22,588	55,756	16,195
– Gross Shorts:	7,974	71,737	14,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	15.0	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-12.6	8.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	55.4	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	67.7	10.6
– Net Position:	19,233	-32,928	13,695
– Gross Longs:	68,287	148,042	42,112
– Gross Shorts:	49,054	180,970	28,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	16.4	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-1.6	-9.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	73.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	76.0	3.7
– Net Position:	2,986	-15,705	12,719
– Gross Longs:	78,186	384,670	32,407
– Gross Shorts:	75,200	400,375	19,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.2	10.4	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-5.9	12.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -40,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	90.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	83.4	2.6
– Net Position:	-40,750	34,144	6,606
– Gross Longs:	28,094	463,792	19,771
– Gross Shorts:	68,844	429,648	13,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	71.6	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	19.6	2.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

21 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Cotton & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (19,749 contracts) with Soybeans (9,593 contracts), Sugar (8,847 contracts), Coffee (6,681 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,390 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,171 contracts), Wheat (2,114 contracts) and Cocoa (1,528 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-18,535 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-4,028 contracts) and Live Cattle (-2,551 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

On the downside, Live Cattle (12 percent), Cotton (12 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (27.8 percent)
Sugar (26.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.8 percent)
Coffee (94.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.7 percent)
Soybeans (14.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (12.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (38.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (43.4 percent)
Live Cattle (11.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.1 percent)
Cotton (11.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (44.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.8 percent)
Wheat (59.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (58.3 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (22 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (17 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Corn (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.0 percent)
Sugar (16.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.4 percent)
Soybeans (5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (22.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-29.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.4 percent)
Cotton (9.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.2 percent)
Cocoa (2.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.7 percent)
Wheat (18.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -66,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	43.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	36.5	12.2
– Net Position:	-66,295	104,089	-37,794
– Gross Longs:	337,834	623,438	135,315
– Gross Shorts:	404,129	519,349	173,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	76.3	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-9.2	-21.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 72,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	54.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	64.6	8.0
– Net Position:	72,250	-79,058	6,808
– Gross Longs:	174,439	409,670	67,622
– Gross Shorts:	102,189	488,728	60,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	73.7	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-16.9	16.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	36.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	72.6	2.5
– Net Position:	70,128	-73,522	3,394
– Gross Longs:	83,448	76,124	8,553
– Gross Shorts:	13,320	149,646	5,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.2	5.2	69.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-11.4	12.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -134,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	62.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	43.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-134,638	155,638	-21,000
– Gross Longs:	111,373	526,047	42,565
– Gross Shorts:	246,011	370,409	63,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	87.2	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-4.3	-18.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	50.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	48.8	4.9
– Net Position:	-8,897	6,668	2,229
– Gross Longs:	141,892	277,776	29,225
– Gross Shorts:	150,789	271,108	26,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	66.2	22.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-19.1	-6.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	47.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	59.1	5.4
– Net Position:	43,288	-61,679	18,391
– Gross Longs:	123,866	246,500	46,358
– Gross Shorts:	80,578	308,179	27,967
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	53.3	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-0.1	0.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	36.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	42.3	13.4
– Net Position:	30,498	-17,976	-12,522
– Gross Longs:	96,606	107,831	27,425
– Gross Shorts:	66,108	125,807	39,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	100.0	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	18.9	-4.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	38.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	35.8	9.4
– Net Position:	-3,310	6,745	-3,435
– Gross Longs:	93,358	98,065	20,404
– Gross Shorts:	96,668	91,320	23,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	69.7	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-20.2	1.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	47.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	37.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-26,362	24,854	1,508
– Gross Longs:	59,144	112,312	13,978
– Gross Shorts:	85,506	87,458	12,470
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	86.8	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.8	24.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	62.6	3.0
– Net Position:	33,753	-39,580	5,827
– Gross Longs:	51,815	50,202	10,154
– Gross Shorts:	18,062	89,782	4,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	52.3	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-2.5	-1.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	35.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	29.7	10.1
– Net Position:	-14,189	20,379	-6,190
– Gross Longs:	124,164	124,609	29,368
– Gross Shorts:	138,353	104,230	35,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	40.5	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-20.2	2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

15 Sep

Forex Speculators push Japanese Yen bets higher for record 10-week gain

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (20,447 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (14,654 contracts), the US Dollar Index (781 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (578 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-18,585 contracts), the British Pound (-17,790 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,178 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,453 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,077 contracts), Bitcoin (-461 contracts) and with the Canadian Dollar (-409 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Forex Speculators push Japanese Yen bets higher for record 10-week gain

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the boost in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Japanese yen bets have continued their remarkable turnaround over the past couple of months with this week marking a tenth consecutive weekly gain.

This week’s increase in the speculator positioning was the second straight weekly rise by over +14,000 contracts and brings the total increase in speculator bets over the past ten weeks to a total of +239,993 contracts — the highest 10-week cumulative change on record. The yen speculator standing has now gone from a total of -184,223 contracts on July 2nd to a total standing this week at +55,770 contracts. This week’s standing also marks the most bullish level since October 4th of 2016.

The yen sentiment has been boosted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) who is changing their interest rate policy from negative rates previously to a cautious increase of rates beginning with their recent July hike. According to Reuters, analysts are expecting the BOJ to increase their rates again by the end of the year.

The yen exchange rate versus the US dollar has benefited from a change in BOJ policy and has improved by approximately 15 percent from the low-point reached in July, according to this week’s closing prices. The yen rose this week by over 1 percent for a second consecutive weekly gain.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (77 percent), Bitcoin (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (23 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (35 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength score is the Mexican Peso (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (45.5 percent)
EuroFX (55.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (62.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (76.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (84.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (93.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (57.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (56.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (78.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (84.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (34.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (44.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (23.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (3.9 percent)
Bitcoin (61.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.0 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (57 percent) and the Japanese Yen (54 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (27 percent), the Swiss Franc (27 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.6 percent)
EuroFX (27.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-9.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-15.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (53.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (61.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (26.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (14.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (0.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (15.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-19.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-19.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (10.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-8.4 percent)
Bitcoin (9.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.0	24.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	61.5	8.5
– Net Position:	20,210	-17,979	-2,231
– Gross Longs:	32,116	11,949	1,916
– Gross Shorts:	11,906	29,928	4,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	62.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	0.5	-35.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 81,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,585 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	55.4	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	72.1	6.8
– Net Position:	81,433	-123,807	42,374
– Gross Longs:	192,821	411,082	92,555
– Gross Shorts:	111,388	534,889	50,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	42.9	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-31.1	44.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 90,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.2	25.7	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	65.1	9.3
– Net Position:	90,288	-107,278	16,990
– Gross Longs:	142,072	69,944	42,246
– Gross Shorts:	51,784	177,222	25,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	18.7	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	6.3	11.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 55,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,116 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	59.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	77.1	8.4
– Net Position:	55,770	-66,719	10,949
– Gross Longs:	98,894	223,698	42,728
– Gross Shorts:	43,124	290,417	31,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	53.8	-55.2	40.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	66.7	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	40.7	19.0
– Net Position:	-21,304	20,885	419
– Gross Longs:	8,082	53,642	15,706
– Gross Shorts:	29,386	32,757	15,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	33.6	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-39.5	50.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	70.4	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	43.7	11.5
– Net Position:	-68,953	66,918	2,035
– Gross Longs:	23,773	176,814	30,986
– Gross Shorts:	92,726	109,896	28,951
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	43.7	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	57.1	-56.3	28.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	49.7	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	48.6	8.1
– Net Position:	-14,042	2,620	11,422
– Gross Longs:	74,259	114,426	30,094
– Gross Shorts:	88,301	111,806	18,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	21.0	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-20.8	35.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	49.5	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	50.0	5.1
– Net Position:	-3,315	-347	3,662
– Gross Longs:	21,394	31,511	6,929
– Gross Shorts:	24,709	31,858	3,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	54.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-26.2	79.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	58.2	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	70.9	3.5
– Net Position:	27,026	-24,212	-2,814
– Gross Longs:	62,614	110,666	3,879
– Gross Shorts:	35,588	134,878	6,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	57.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	20.4	-13.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -30,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	68.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.3	23.0	4.3
– Net Position:	-30,364	30,599	-235
– Gross Longs:	18,115	46,011	2,631
– Gross Shorts:	48,479	15,412	2,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	77.9	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.5	2.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.6	3.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.8	3.6	3.4
– Net Position:	-353	85	268
– Gross Longs:	22,969	1,097	1,225
– Gross Shorts:	23,322	1,012	957
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	66.9	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-6.2	-9.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

14 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Yen, VIX, Cotton & WTI Crude Oil top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 10th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a maximum 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 53.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 55,770 net contracts this week with a jump by 14,654 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is now at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 37.4 this week. The speculator position registered -15,111 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 10,778 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 98.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 29.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 744,227 net contracts this week with a huge boost of 112,656 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 14.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 282,501 net contracts this week with a dip of -5,057 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level sits at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 73.0 this week.

The speculator position was -259,158 net contracts this week with a decline of -18,956 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Cotton speculator level is at the lowest possible value of a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -46,111 net contracts this week with a drop of -7,957 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a just 0.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -36.2 this week. The speculator position totaled 140,014 net contracts this week with a slide of -37,021 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,719,996 net contracts this week with a small dip by -1,300 contracts in the speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 1.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,022,105 net contracts this week with a fall by -19,278 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gasoline

Finally, the Gasoline speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 5.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.3 this week. The speculator position was 15,637 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,221 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

14 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (8,615 contracts) with Palladium (645 contracts) and Steel (155 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,057 contracts), Silver (-1,317 contracts) and with Copper (-149 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (95 percent) and Steel (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (21 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength scores are Platinum (45 percent) and Copper (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (95.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (97.2 percent)
Silver (77.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.7 percent)
Copper (45.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.3 percent)
Platinum (44.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (21.7 percent)
Palladium (21.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.7 percent)
Steel (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.1 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (15 percent) and Palladium (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-11 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (6.0 percent)
Silver (-5.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.2 percent)
Copper (-10.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-27.2 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-28.9 percent)
Palladium (15.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.6 percent)
Steel (8.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (10.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 282,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 287,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.5	15.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	75.3	5.2
– Net Position:	282,501	-306,899	24,398
– Gross Longs:	340,006	78,232	50,937
– Gross Shorts:	57,505	385,131	26,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	5.9	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-13.1	-6.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.8	23.6	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	71.7	8.4
– Net Position:	44,742	-62,086	17,344
– Gross Longs:	61,649	30,386	28,230
– Gross Shorts:	16,907	92,472	10,886
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	25.3	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	9.2	-19.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -149 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	34.8	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	43.9	6.8
– Net Position:	12,812	-18,448	5,636
– Gross Longs:	74,754	70,851	19,482
– Gross Shorts:	61,942	89,299	13,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	54.6	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	14.8	-33.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.6	24.0	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	43.4	4.8
– Net Position:	10,003	-16,416	6,413
– Gross Longs:	45,427	20,370	10,508
– Gross Shorts:	35,424	36,786	4,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	47.8	63.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	12.3	-4.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	60.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.5	11.1	7.3
– Net Position:	-10,988	11,049	-61
– Gross Longs:	6,245	13,513	1,569
– Gross Shorts:	17,233	2,464	1,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	82.8	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-4.7	-69.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	70.0	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	54.0	0.8
– Net Position:	-3,577	3,579	-2
– Gross Longs:	4,327	15,668	169
– Gross Shorts:	7,904	12,089	171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	18.3	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-9.3	14.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

14 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (112,656 contracts) with the Fed Funds (34,313 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27,613 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-31,894 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-31,186 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-23,754 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-19,278 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-18,956 contracts) and with the 5-Year Bonds (-1,300 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (99 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (91 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (1 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (30 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (54.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (46.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (30.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (31.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (46.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (40.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (61.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (72.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (91.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (38.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (98.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (92.9 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (73 percent) and the Fed Funds (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (29 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bond (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-41.4 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-24 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-6 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (10.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (6.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-3.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-24.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-29.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (11.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-6.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (10.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (79.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-41.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-40.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (25.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -56,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 34,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	66.7	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	62.1	3.0
– Net Position:	-56,421	81,935	-25,514
– Gross Longs:	264,595	1,193,172	28,812
– Gross Shorts:	321,016	1,111,237	54,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.0	48.3	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-59.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 744,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 112,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 631,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	52.6	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	59.2	0.4
– Net Position:	744,227	-752,497	8,270
– Gross Longs:	2,097,158	5,997,593	51,852
– Gross Shorts:	1,352,931	6,750,090	43,582
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	0.7	92.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.2	-29.7	4.9

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -136,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -31,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	66.8	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	54.7	0.1
– Net Position:	-136,077	137,023	-946
– Gross Longs:	175,113	757,537	312
– Gross Shorts:	311,190	620,514	1,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	69.9	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.4	41.0	13.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,006,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -23,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -982,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	76.7	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	57.1	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,006,216	852,132	154,084
– Gross Longs:	666,817	3,328,782	269,001
– Gross Shorts:	1,673,033	2,476,650	114,917
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	64.5	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-4.3	-12.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,719,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,718,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	83.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	59.9	3.8
– Net Position:	-1,719,996	1,491,140	228,856
– Gross Longs:	522,020	5,302,218	472,348
– Gross Shorts:	2,242,016	3,811,078	243,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	100.0	96.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	6.9	-3.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,022,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,002,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	79.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	60.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-1,022,105	901,605	120,500
– Gross Longs:	409,121	3,799,096	474,433
– Gross Shorts:	1,431,226	2,897,491	353,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.3	100.0	92.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	33.8	5.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -56,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 27,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	74.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	69.2	12.4
– Net Position:	-56,146	101,353	-45,207
– Gross Longs:	311,481	1,557,384	216,428
– Gross Shorts:	367,627	1,456,031	261,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	32.6	85.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-12.3	-5.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -64,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -31,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	65.1	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	67.5	7.6
– Net Position:	-64,230	-41,310	105,540
– Gross Longs:	353,380	1,124,907	236,559
– Gross Shorts:	417,610	1,166,217	131,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	14.9	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	1.3	9.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -259,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -240,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.0	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	64.5	9.5
– Net Position:	-259,158	229,154	30,004
– Gross Longs:	168,767	1,329,192	192,521
– Gross Shorts:	427,925	1,100,038	162,517
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	8.2	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	73.0	-82.5	9.1

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