COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 2

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq-Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a gain of 10,232 contracts on the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-29,716 contracts), the VIX (-13,822 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-8,962 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,462 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,552 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (85 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (77 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (66 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (48.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (77.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (79.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (69.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (74.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (42 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-17.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-16.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (28.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-20.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	44.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	35.1	8.5
– Net Position:	-33,202	31,526	1,676
– Gross Longs:	66,912	152,286	30,871
– Gross Shorts:	100,114	120,760	29,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	34.8	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	34.8	-15.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -108,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,894 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	72.2	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	74.0	6.5
– Net Position:	-108,610	-40,012	148,622
– Gross Longs:	257,606	1,646,683	295,702
– Gross Shorts:	366,216	1,686,695	147,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	34.4	98.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	10.8	21.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	52.1	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	66.8	13.8
– Net Position:	10,500	-13,613	3,113
– Gross Longs:	26,196	48,062	15,863
– Gross Shorts:	15,696	61,675	12,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	18.5	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	1.1	6.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	54.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	68.7	9.7
– Net Position:	29,691	-40,965	11,274
– Gross Longs:	89,355	160,837	39,675
– Gross Shorts:	59,664	201,802	28,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.2	7.6	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.9	-30.5	1.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	75.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	78.5	3.4
– Net Position:	-11,574	-15,176	26,750
– Gross Longs:	65,152	379,981	43,620
– Gross Shorts:	76,726	395,157	16,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	14.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.8	11.2	34.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	89.2	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	83.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-31,200	26,345	4,855
– Gross Longs:	37,113	406,070	10,977
– Gross Shorts:	68,313	379,725	6,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	63.5	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-3.3	-1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (12,221 contracts) with Lean Hogs (10,520 contracts), Soybeans (7,453 contracts), Cotton (3,311 contracts), Live Cattle (3,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,862 contracts) and Corn (359 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-9,345 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,665 contracts), Coffee (-3,886 contracts) and Cocoa (-1,570 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Coffee (91 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (84 percent), Soybean Oil (56 percent) and Corn (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Cotton (22 percent), Soybeans (23 percent) and Wheat (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (51.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (51.3 percent)
Sugar (32.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.3 percent)
Coffee (90.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (94.7 percent)
Soybeans (23.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (21.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (56.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (13.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.7 percent)
Live Cattle (83.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (91.8 percent)
Cotton (21.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (47.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (49.5 percent)
Wheat (28.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (35.7 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (33 percent) and Live Cattle (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (15 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-35 percent), Soybean Oil (-23 percent) and Soybeans (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.1 percent)
Sugar (-1.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-10.4 percent)
Coffee (0.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.6 percent)
Soybeans (-4.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-42.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-40.1 percent)
Live Cattle (26.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (33.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.7 percent)
Cotton (-4.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.2 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.7 percent)
Wheat (-35.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 137,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	46.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	53.1	10.5
– Net Position:	137,228	-101,968	-35,260
– Gross Longs:	404,920	711,737	125,015
– Gross Shorts:	267,692	813,705	160,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	49.0	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-17.1	12.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 88,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	50.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	62.7	6.0
– Net Position:	88,315	-108,348	20,033
– Gross Longs:	228,964	449,489	73,180
– Gross Shorts:	140,649	557,837	53,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	65.3	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	6.1	-21.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,613 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.6	35.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	69.6	2.9
– Net Position:	66,727	-69,817	3,090
– Gross Longs:	78,015	70,936	9,014
– Gross Shorts:	11,288	140,753	5,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.9	8.7	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-0.2	-3.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -98,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	56.4	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	43.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-98,484	115,653	-17,169
– Gross Longs:	158,897	520,431	49,744
– Gross Shorts:	257,381	404,778	66,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	77.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.4	6.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	53.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	59.4	4.7
– Net Position:	26,828	-32,252	5,424
– Gross Longs:	138,699	303,490	32,253
– Gross Shorts:	111,871	335,742	26,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	47.0	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	22.8	-15.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	45.9	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	44.0	5.5
– Net Position:	-33,970	11,231	22,739
– Gross Longs:	132,664	277,159	55,879
– Gross Shorts:	166,634	265,928	33,140
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	82.2	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.0	40.8	-2.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 97,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	31.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	51.6	13.7
– Net Position:	97,044	-72,727	-24,317
– Gross Longs:	163,456	109,258	24,090
– Gross Shorts:	66,412	181,985	48,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	33.6	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-26.3	-9.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 91,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	28.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	50.5	8.9
– Net Position:	91,759	-82,933	-8,826
– Gross Longs:	180,550	103,197	23,829
– Gross Shorts:	88,791	186,130	32,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.1	-33.8	-12.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	46.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	40.4	5.6
– Net Position:	-13,590	13,602	-12
– Gross Longs:	59,802	107,282	12,854
– Gross Shorts:	73,392	93,680	12,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	78.2	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	4.3	-4.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	35.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	69.4	4.1
– Net Position:	37,165	-43,594	6,429
– Gross Longs:	56,340	46,774	11,738
– Gross Shorts:	19,175	90,368	5,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	49.3	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	3.1	6.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	38.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	22.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-61,537	66,335	-4,798
– Gross Longs:	125,216	162,383	29,486
– Gross Shorts:	186,753	96,048	34,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	74.1	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	35.2	3.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

24 Nov

USD Index Bets continue divergence, Speculators cut their Euro bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (18,034 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (1,803 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (300 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-35,120 contracts), the British Pound (-15,735 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,778 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,179 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,377 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-1,177 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-401 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-286 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

USD Index Bets continue divergence, Speculators cut their Euro bets

Highlighting the COT currency’s data for the week was the continued divergence in the US Dollar Index price and the US Dollar Index speculator positioning.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions decreased for a third straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past ten weeks. This is a total decline of -22,923 contracts over the ten-week period and has brought the USD Index positioning to a new multi-year low dating back to March 3rd of 2021.

Despite this recent sentiment deficit, the US Dollar Index (DX) price has continued to go the opposite way of the speculators – which are usually trend-following and buying price on the way up while doing the opposite on the way down.

The DX rose by almost 1 percent this week and has now gained for three weeks in a row as well as for seven increases out of the past eight weeks. The DX broke through the 106.50-107.00 resistance level this week with a high above 108.00 before settling back to close the week at approximately 107.50. This is the highest weekly close since the fourth quarter of 2022. Next up, look for overhead resistance in the 109.00-110.00 areas if the bullish trend continues.

Euro bets drop sharply, exchange rate on the downswing

Euro currency bets dropped sharply by over -35,120 net contracts this week and pretty much erased the gains of the past two weeks (+14,216 contracts on Nov 12th and +28,651 contracts on Nov. 5th). Speculator positioning in the Euro has been volatile in the past few months but overall, bets have been going mostly bearish for the currency. Over the past eleven weeks, Euro net positions have in total dropped by -142,575 contracts and have taken the position from a total of +100,018 contracts on September 3rd to this week’s standing of -42,557 net contracts.

The Euro exchange rate has been taking it on the chin and has dropped by over 1 percent in each of the past three weeks. After ascending to a 2024-high in September at over 1.1200, the Euro has spiraled lower in quick work and closed this week at approximately 1.0420. This is over a 7 percent decrease in just two months. If the currency continues to slide through the 1.0400 resistance, we can look for the 1.0250 level and eventually the Euro could test parity at 1.00 to the US Dollar. The Euro last fell to parity and below in the second half of 2022 with the Euro dropping all the way to the 0.9602 level which marked the lowest level in over two decades.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (99 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (55 percent) and the British Pound (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the EuroFX (3 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent), the Canadian Dollar (5.7 percent) and Bitcoin (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.8 percent)
EuroFX (3.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (18.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (54.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (61.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (47.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (25.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (97.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (38.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (45.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (44.9 percent)
Bitcoin (5.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.1 percent)

Brazilian Real tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies and is currently the only positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-38 percent), EuroFX (-34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-33 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-1.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.2 percent)
EuroFX (-34.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-26.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-23.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-16.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-33.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-48.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-29.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-37.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (29.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-2.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	23.8	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.9	18.7	8.3
– Net Position:	-2,713	1,921	792
– Gross Longs:	22,613	8,883	3,891
– Gross Shorts:	25,326	6,962	3,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-1.2	15.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -35,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	60.6	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	57.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-42,557	21,047	21,510
– Gross Longs:	154,305	399,002	76,465
– Gross Shorts:	196,862	377,955	54,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	96.1	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.4	35.6	-32.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 40,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	36.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	54.1	13.3
– Net Position:	40,315	-39,066	-1,249
– Gross Longs:	101,713	80,547	28,148
– Gross Shorts:	61,398	119,613	29,397
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	45.8	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	27.4	-33.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -46,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	52.8	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.5	33.4	15.7
– Net Position:	-46,868	49,209	-2,341
– Gross Longs:	78,973	134,065	37,427
– Gross Shorts:	125,841	84,856	39,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	46.6	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.3	31.9	-8.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -37,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	84.0	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.7	20.4	29.7
– Net Position:	-37,071	52,622	-15,551
– Gross Longs:	4,036	69,499	9,009
– Gross Shorts:	41,107	16,877	24,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	85.3	5.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.6	41.5	-49.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -183,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -182,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	82.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.6	27.3	10.7
– Net Position:	-183,566	190,676	-7,110
– Gross Longs:	23,904	285,755	30,046
– Gross Shorts:	207,470	95,079	37,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	94.6	9.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.3	43.0	-29.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.7	35.8	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	50.7	15.8
– Net Position:	31,598	-27,106	-4,492
– Gross Longs:	86,703	64,987	24,189
– Gross Shorts:	55,105	92,093	28,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	13.8	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	13.8	-54.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	64.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	35.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-18,438	21,323	-2,885
– Gross Longs:	21,762	47,092	3,323
– Gross Shorts:	40,200	25,769	6,208
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	94.6	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.9	45.4	-64.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,179 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.5	50.0	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	57.9	4.7
– Net Position:	14,014	-11,007	-3,007
– Gross Longs:	60,642	69,581	3,539
– Gross Shorts:	46,628	80,588	6,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	63.6	6.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	8.1	-9.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	32.7	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.0	24.1	3.0
– Net Position:	-7,277	7,003	274
– Gross Longs:	43,898	26,555	2,703
– Gross Shorts:	51,175	19,552	2,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.2	55.8	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-2.5	-0.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	4.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.7	1.5	2.5
– Net Position:	-2,084	1,294	790
– Gross Longs:	31,152	1,917	1,833
– Gross Shorts:	33,236	623	1,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	95.7	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	10.5	28.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Ultra T-Bonds, AUD, 5-Year & USD Index lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 19th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a positive 24.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -225,304 net contracts this week with an increase by 15,980 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is now at a 98.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score has tailed off a bit and was -1.3 this week. The speculator position registered 31,598 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 1,803 contracts in speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level resides at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 34.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 71,982 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,000 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week and continues to see strong speculator sentiment. The Coffee speculator level is at a 93.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a modest change of 6.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 68,918 net contracts this week with a small rise of 450 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 91.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 1.9 this week.

The speculator position leveled at -1,297 net contracts this week with a dip of -489 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at the lowest level in 3 years or a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -20.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,983,026 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -113,816 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range despite a rising price.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.7 this week. The speculator position was -2,713 net contracts this week and had a decrease by -401 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at just 0.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.5 this week. The overall speculator position is standing at -16,138 net contracts this week with a drop of -6,622 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,447,344 net contracts this week with a decline of -23,473 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro

Finally, the Euro speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Euro speculator level is at a 3.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed a strong negative sentiment at -34.4 this week. The speculator position was -42,557 net contracts this week with a huge drop of -35,120 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

23 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (2,443 contracts) with Palladium (19 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,403 contracts), Gold (-2,084 contracts), Silver (-1,319 contracts) and with Steel (-489 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (91 percent) and Silver (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (70 percent) and Gold (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (48 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (69.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.0 percent)
Silver (74.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (76.4 percent)
Copper (47.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.7 percent)
Platinum (69.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (63.8 percent)
Palladium (55.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (55.7 percent)
Steel (91.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (93.2 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7 percent) and Steel (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-26 percent), Gold (-17 percent) and Silver (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-16.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (-24.1 percent)
Silver (-10.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.7 percent)
Copper (-25.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.8 percent)
Platinum (-2.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-18.7 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (11.4 percent)
Steel (1.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 234,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 236,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.5	14.6	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	66.8	4.9
– Net Position:	234,367	-262,322	27,955
– Gross Longs:	309,354	73,459	52,421
– Gross Shorts:	74,987	335,781	24,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	27.9	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	15.0	7.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	24.4	21.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.5	8.0
– Net Position:	46,323	-65,081	18,758
– Gross Longs:	65,939	34,466	30,090
– Gross Shorts:	19,616	99,547	11,332
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.7	22.4	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	12.9	-15.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	35.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	45.7	5.2
– Net Position:	15,442	-21,842	6,400
– Gross Longs:	87,842	80,198	18,115
– Gross Shorts:	72,400	102,040	11,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	51.6	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	26.3	-17.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	18.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	51.6	3.6
– Net Position:	22,676	-29,759	7,083
– Gross Longs:	55,437	16,102	10,307
– Gross Shorts:	32,761	45,861	3,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	26.2	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.8	-4.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,313 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	47.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.8	16.4	9.1
– Net Position:	-6,294	5,696	598
– Gross Longs:	4,726	8,673	2,256
– Gross Shorts:	11,020	2,977	1,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	44.6	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-8.1	5.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	72.4	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	68.0	0.7
– Net Position:	-1,297	1,237	60
– Gross Longs:	6,088	20,174	261
– Gross Shorts:	7,385	18,937	201
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.4	9.3	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-0.9	-28.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

23 Nov

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra Treasury Bonds (15,980 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (6,123 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (4,701 contracts) also seeing small positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-113,816 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-91,701 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-61,073 contracts), the Fed Funds (-57,577 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-23,473 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-14,477 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 10-Year Bonds (22 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (44.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (55.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (30.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (71.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (68.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (100.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (93.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (36.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (35.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (44.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (47.9 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-35 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-23 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-20 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-45.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-44.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-15.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-20.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-22.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-19.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (24.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (22.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (14.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-34.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-43.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -55,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -57,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	66.3	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	63.0	2.1
– Net Position:	-55,140	57,093	-1,953
– Gross Longs:	144,425	1,126,402	32,994
– Gross Shorts:	199,565	1,069,309	34,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	52.4	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.6	43.0	19.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -300,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -61,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	58.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	55.4	0.5
– Net Position:	-300,954	319,102	-18,148
– Gross Longs:	1,462,583	6,428,182	35,198
– Gross Shorts:	1,763,537	6,109,080	53,346
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	56.1	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.6	35.8	-12.5

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -130,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -135,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	64.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	53.6	0.0
– Net Position:	-130,957	131,159	-202
– Gross Longs:	167,017	782,983	230
– Gross Shorts:	297,974	651,824	432
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	63.8	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-22.6	3.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,447,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,423,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	78.5	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	50.6	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,447,344	1,288,654	158,690
– Gross Longs:	508,805	3,626,185	276,844
– Gross Shorts:	1,956,149	2,337,531	118,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	96.6	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	18.7	-9.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,983,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -113,816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,869,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	82.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	55.3	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,983,026	1,861,574	121,452
– Gross Longs:	407,669	5,621,654	429,703
– Gross Shorts:	2,390,695	3,760,080	308,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	29.1	-13.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -907,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -91,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -815,801 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	78.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	60.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-907,502	856,303	51,199
– Gross Longs:	424,509	3,710,545	442,533
– Gross Shorts:	1,332,011	2,854,242	391,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	83.6	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	6.2	-23.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -171,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -156,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	74.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	63.3	13.2
– Net Position:	-171,268	249,454	-78,186
– Gross Longs:	312,413	1,678,313	219,354
– Gross Shorts:	483,681	1,428,859	297,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	68.0	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	30.1	-3.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	59.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	61.3	6.7
– Net Position:	-35,645	-36,093	71,738
– Gross Longs:	430,752	1,226,901	209,744
– Gross Shorts:	466,397	1,262,994	138,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	16.7	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-3.6	-20.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -225,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -241,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	77.2	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	65.7	9.2
– Net Position:	-225,304	210,507	14,797
– Gross Longs:	166,467	1,410,459	183,468
– Gross Shorts:	391,771	1,199,952	168,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-27.4	-2.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

23 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (3,616 contracts) with Coffee (450 contracts) and Live Cattle (408 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-29,061 contracts), Soybean Meal (-28,762 contracts), Cotton (-19,649 contracts), Corn (-14,345 contracts), Soybeans (-9,218 contracts), Wheat (-7,510 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,000 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,668 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (96 percent) and Coffee (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (79 percent), Live Cattle (71 percent) and Corn (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (21 percent), Soybeans (26 percent) and the Sugar (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (54.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (56.5 percent)
Sugar (26.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (25.4 percent)
Coffee (93.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.6 percent)
Soybeans (26.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (28.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (94.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (32.5 percent)
Live Cattle (70.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (70.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (96.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (10.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (47.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (49.0 percent)
Wheat (40.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (46.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (35 percent) and Live Cattle (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (16 percent), Coffee (6 percent) and Soybean Oil (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-26 percent), Cotton (-13 percent) and Sugar (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (16.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.5 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.6 percent)
Coffee (6.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (-8.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-47.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-37.5 percent)
Live Cattle (22.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (50.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.9 percent)
Cocoa (-3.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.1 percent)
Wheat (-25.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 163,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.3	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	54.1	10.8
– Net Position:	163,301	-113,151	-50,150
– Gross Longs:	418,990	787,938	129,840
– Gross Shorts:	255,689	901,089	179,990
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	47.5	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-17.7	8.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	50.6	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	62.1	5.5
– Net Position:	71,738	-101,154	29,416
– Gross Longs:	220,130	445,189	77,757
– Gross Shorts:	148,392	546,343	48,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	67.4	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	11.1	-9.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	36.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	72.7	2.8
– Net Position:	68,918	-73,015	4,097
– Gross Longs:	79,031	71,892	9,610
– Gross Shorts:	10,113	144,907	5,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.0	5.6	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.6	8.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -86,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,113 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	58.1	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	46.0	7.8
– Net Position:	-86,331	109,077	-22,746
– Gross Longs:	168,134	524,558	48,087
– Gross Shorts:	254,465	415,481	70,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	75.7	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.2	26.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	49.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	63.4	4.2
– Net Position:	68,164	-81,071	12,907
– Gross Longs:	161,005	285,534	37,163
– Gross Shorts:	92,841	366,605	24,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	22.9	64.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-9.4	43.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -28,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	46.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	47.6	5.5
– Net Position:	-16,256	-9,392	25,648
– Gross Longs:	145,560	286,611	59,727
– Gross Shorts:	161,816	296,003	34,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	74.0	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.6	46.9	-10.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 85,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.1	33.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	51.3	13.7
– Net Position:	85,187	-63,090	-22,097
– Gross Longs:	152,864	114,603	25,343
– Gross Shorts:	67,677	177,693	47,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	45.3	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-21.0	-12.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	29.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	47.9	9.0
– Net Position:	71,982	-62,301	-9,681
– Gross Longs:	157,401	102,204	21,302
– Gross Shorts:	85,419	164,505	30,983
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	5.4	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-33.5	-19.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	50.5	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	37.6	5.5
– Net Position:	-31,135	30,832	303
– Gross Longs:	58,166	121,093	13,578
– Gross Shorts:	89,301	90,261	13,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.1	88.9	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	12.6	-5.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	37.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	71.2	4.0
– Net Position:	36,594	-43,784	7,190
– Gross Longs:	55,932	48,440	12,337
– Gross Shorts:	19,338	92,224	5,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	48.1	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	3.2	1.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -46,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	38.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	26.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-46,039	53,723	-7,684
– Gross Longs:	116,397	173,884	30,822
– Gross Shorts:	162,436	120,161	38,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	64.0	16.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	27.3	-7.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (9,910 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (3,423 contracts) also showing a gaining week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-5,401 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,249 contracts), the VIX (-4,386 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-547 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (88 percent) and the Russell-Mini (84 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (70 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (88.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (92.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (69.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (68.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (84.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (87.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (10 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-5.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (10.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (6.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-5.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (10.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (0.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-8.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-4.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-2.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	41.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	38.9	7.4
– Net Position:	-8,809	8,476	333
– Gross Longs:	78,339	146,068	26,481
– Gross Shorts:	87,148	137,592	26,148
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.4	15.2	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	3.4	7.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	68.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	77.0	6.4
– Net Position:	34,911	-182,867	147,956
– Gross Longs:	348,339	1,556,553	291,954
– Gross Shorts:	313,428	1,739,420	143,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	14.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-13.1	22.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	52.8	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.2	11.8
– Net Position:	8,265	-14,757	6,492
– Gross Longs:	19,992	44,691	16,466
– Gross Shorts:	11,727	59,448	9,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	16.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	1.6	31.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	57.6	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	69.3	9.8
– Net Position:	19,803	-32,162	12,359
– Gross Longs:	66,681	158,513	39,446
– Gross Shorts:	46,878	190,675	27,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	17.2	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-8.1	1.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	72.5	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	78.1	3.5
– Net Position:	3,145	-27,356	24,211
– Gross Longs:	77,154	354,411	41,366
– Gross Shorts:	74,009	381,767	17,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	7.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	-5.4	32.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	88.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	82.3	1.8
– Net Position:	-32,018	28,405	3,613
– Gross Longs:	36,620	390,910	11,462
– Gross Shorts:	68,638	362,505	7,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	65.6	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	6.4	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

17 Nov

Currency Speculators cut US Dollar Index bets despite rising price

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Large Speculator bets led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (14,216 contracts) with the British Pound (10,966 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (4,948 contracts) also pulling out a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-20,735 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-10,902 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-7,160 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,461 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,713 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,407 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-1,181 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-341 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators cut US Dollar Index bets despite rising price

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decrease in the speculative bets for the US Dollar Index market despite the rising Dollar Index price.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell this week for the second straight week and have now declined for seven out of the past nine weeks. The nine-week decrease amounts to a total of -22,522 contracts being taken off the speculator position. This weakness has now taken the US Dollar Index spec standing, currently at -2,312 contracts, to the lowest level since March 9th of 2021, a distance of 192 weeks ago.

The US Dollar Index speculator positioning is currently in stark contrast with the pricing action of the USD at the moment. The Dollar Index or DX futures prices have been on a strong uptrend with gains in six out of the past seven weeks. The DX has gone from a price of approximately 100.20 at the end of September to this week’s close at 106.61 on Friday. This is a strong rise of over 6 percent in just seven weeks.

Speculators, especially in currencies, usually act as trend-followers and are typically buying prices that are on the rise (or selling prices on the decline) but have not been participating in this move on a net basis.

One way for this situation to resolve itself can be with the speculators closing out their shorts and switching to longs which could add to the Dollar’s strength, and potentially push the USD Index through the resistance area of 106.50-107.00. Prices recently were stopped at this resistance level in October of 2023 and in April of 2024. Otherwise, prices could stall out here at this level again and head lower which would bring prices back in line with the current small bearish speculator positioning. One helpful clue will be if open interest (OI) starts to rise as currently OI is relatively low at just approximately 33 percent of the 3-Year range. An increase in open interest is needed to bring more fuel to the market and keep a trend going.

The US Federal Reserve also has their next central bank interest rate meeting on December 18th and the currently, there is a 62 percent probability for a 25 basis point rate cut and a 38 percent probability for a rate hold at the current level of 4.5-4.75 percent, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. The coming weeks and into the new year will likely be pivotal in terms of where the Dollar heads to next.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (97 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The British Pound (61 percent), the Japanese Yen (48 percent), the Brazilian Real (45 percent) and the Mexican Peso (41 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the Canadian Dollar (6 percent), Bitcoin (12 percent), the Euro (18 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.1 percent)
EuroFX (18.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (12.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (61.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (56.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (56.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (34.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (97.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (98.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (18.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (44.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (40.2 percent)
Bitcoin (12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (19.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (29 percent) and the Australian Dollar (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-50 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-49 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-26 percent) and the Euro (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-5.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.8 percent)
EuroFX (-26.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-39.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-16.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-18.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-48.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-44.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-19.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-21.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-50.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-49.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (30.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-26.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-13.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (9.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (29.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (23.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-2.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	21.1	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.5	18.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-2,312	1,100	1,212
– Gross Longs:	22,958	7,778	4,443
– Gross Shorts:	25,270	6,678	3,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.2	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	-0.9	30.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	57.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	60.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-7,437	-18,274	25,711
– Gross Longs:	160,003	366,805	78,432
– Gross Shorts:	167,440	385,079	52,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	81.6	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	28.0	-28.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 56,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	25.7	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	53.6	12.4
– Net Position:	56,050	-59,148	3,098
– Gross Longs:	119,992	54,642	29,405
– Gross Shorts:	63,942	113,790	26,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	37.8	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	20.8	-30.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -64,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -20,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	59.7	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.0	31.7	16.8
– Net Position:	-64,902	72,173	-7,271
– Gross Longs:	64,038	153,738	35,915
– Gross Shorts:	128,940	81,565	43,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	55.0	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-48.6	51.1	-41.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -32,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	80.2	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.6	24.0	27.0
– Net Position:	-32,694	44,011	-11,317
– Gross Longs:	5,365	62,851	9,858
– Gross Shorts:	38,059	18,840	21,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	71.2	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	36.3	-57.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -182,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -175,229 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	82.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.7	26.8	11.0
– Net Position:	-182,389	191,332	-8,943
– Gross Longs:	22,011	283,278	28,728
– Gross Shorts:	204,400	91,946	37,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	94.9	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.4	53.9	-55.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 29,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.6	34.6	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	53.6	13.8
– Net Position:	29,795	-32,634	2,839
– Gross Longs:	83,555	59,537	26,542
– Gross Shorts:	53,760	92,171	23,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.4	10.5	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	0.7	-42.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	58.7	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.8	38.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-11,660	13,012	-1,352
– Gross Longs:	22,871	37,696	3,317
– Gross Shorts:	34,531	24,684	4,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	79.4	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	33.7	-61.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,902 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	45.9	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	57.0	4.5
– Net Position:	20,193	-16,321	-3,872
– Gross Longs:	73,269	67,882	2,818
– Gross Shorts:	53,076	84,203	6,690
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	61.1	1.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	4.0	-13.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	33.5	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.5	23.3	3.2
– Net Position:	-7,577	7,540	37
– Gross Longs:	39,465	24,800	2,378
– Gross Shorts:	47,042	17,260	2,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	56.3	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-27.5	-7.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	4.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.8	1.7	2.5
– Net Position:	-1,798	1,151	647
– Gross Longs:	30,887	1,792	1,604
– Gross Shorts:	32,685	641	957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	92.1	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-7.5	23.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover lower speculator contracts.

Leading markets with declines in speculator bets were Gold (-18,878 contracts) with Platinum (-8,808 contracts), Silver (-5,704 contracts), Copper (-2,825 contracts), Palladium (-2,646 contracts) and Steel (-394 contracts) also showing lower contracts for the week.

The metals markets have now seen multiple down weeks in a row with Copper recording six straight weeks of declines while Gold and Silver have fallen for three straight weeks of declines. Steel, Palladium and Platinum have also had two straight weeks of falling contracts as well. Despite the recent weakness, the metals markets are still in strong positions compared to their 3-Year ranges as all the markets have at least a 50 percent strength score or, in other words, the speculator positions are in the top half of their 3-Year ranges. Steel, Silver and Gold are in the top 70 percent of their ranges at the moment.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (93 percent) and Silver (76 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (70 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Copper (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Palladium (56 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (70.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (77.2 percent)
Silver (76.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.6 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.3 percent)
Platinum (63.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (84.6 percent)
Palladium (55.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (75.1 percent)
Steel (93.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.7 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (11 percent) and Steel (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-21 percent) and Platinum (-19 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-24.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-22.8 percent)
Silver (-11.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.2 percent)
Copper (-20.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.8 percent)
Platinum (-18.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (11.0 percent)
Palladium (11.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.5 percent)
Steel (7.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 236,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 255,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	14.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	63.6	5.2
– Net Position:	236,451	-265,582	29,131
– Gross Longs:	316,225	75,347	56,838
– Gross Shorts:	79,774	340,929	27,707
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.0	26.7	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	22.3	5.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	22.5	21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	68.2	7.7
– Net Position:	47,642	-67,407	19,765
– Gross Longs:	68,951	33,197	31,167
– Gross Shorts:	21,309	100,604	11,402
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	19.9	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	13.1	-12.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	33.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	46.5	4.6
– Net Position:	20,845	-30,413	9,568
– Gross Longs:	93,941	77,575	20,369
– Gross Shorts:	73,096	107,988	10,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	44.2	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.8	17.6	11.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.9	18.9	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	50.9	3.6
– Net Position:	20,233	-28,419	8,186
– Gross Longs:	53,283	16,825	11,361
– Gross Shorts:	33,050	45,244	3,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	29.2	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	11.9	40.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,313 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	48.4	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.6	20.3	7.3
– Net Position:	-6,313	5,183	1,130
– Gross Longs:	4,667	8,919	2,480
– Gross Shorts:	10,980	3,736	1,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	41.0	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-16.5	36.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	71.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	68.2	0.7
– Net Position:	-808	727	81
– Gross Longs:	6,257	18,343	256
– Gross Shorts:	7,065	17,616	175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	7.4	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-6.3	-17.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

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