COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Metals Charts: Copper Speculator Bets rebound after 7 Down Weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,458 contracts) with Silver (1,048 contracts), Steel (344 contracts) and Platinum (263 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-97 contracts) and with Palladium (-21 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Copper Bets rebound after 7 Down Weeks

Highlighting the speculator bets this week was copper, which rebounded with a weekly gain of +13,458 net contracts. Copper had seen lower speculator bets in the preceding seven consecutive weeks, which had dropped the Copper speculator position to the lowest level since October.

This week’s positive rebound shoots the overall net speculator position back up over +59,000 contracts, the most bullish level since December 30th. Overall, Copper speculator positions have been consistently in a bullish standing, dating back to March 5th of 2024, a span of 102 consecutive bullish weeks.

Silver leads Metals Markets Price Performance this week

Silver bounced back this week with a 5.62% gain over the past five days. This was followed by Platinum which rose by 4.94% over that same period.

Gold was higher by 3.82% while Palladium showed a rise of 3.67%, and rounding out the gainers was Copper with a 1.86% increase.

Steel was virtually unchanged on the week with a -0.03% dip.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

On the downside, Gold (36 percent), Platinum (42 percent) and Silver (42 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (36.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.3 percent)
Silver (42.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (41.0 percent)
Copper (88.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (76.0 percent)
Platinum (41.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.2 percent)
Palladium (95.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.3 percent)
Steel (96.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (95.1 percent)

Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (12 percent) and Copper (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-28 percent), Platinum (-14 percent) and Silver (-7 percent) are the leaders of the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-27.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-29.2 percent)
Silver (-7.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.5 percent)
Copper (1.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.0 percent)
Platinum (-14.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-14.9 percent)
Palladium (-0.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.2 percent)
Steel (11.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 159,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -97 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	21.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	70.0	3.7
– Net Position:	159,915	-196,782	36,867
– Gross Longs:	213,432	88,237	51,821
– Gross Shorts:	53,517	285,019	14,954
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	57.3	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	30.2	-22.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	27.9	21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	60.1	7.7
– Net Position:	24,003	-42,347	18,344
– Gross Longs:	36,626	36,729	28,514
– Gross Shorts:	12,623	79,076	10,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	54.3	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	11.6	-22.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 59,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	33.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	60.6	3.6
– Net Position:	59,331	-73,886	14,555
– Gross Longs:	89,699	91,573	24,327
– Gross Shorts:	30,368	165,459	9,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	6.8	89.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.6	2.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	28.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	55.5	4.3
– Net Position:	12,347	-18,536	6,189
– Gross Longs:	28,826	19,913	9,175
– Gross Shorts:	16,479	38,449	2,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	58.6	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	13.8	4.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	36.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	45.9	7.8
– Net Position:	492	-1,634	1,142
– Gross Longs:	7,577	6,066	2,447
– Gross Shorts:	7,085	7,700	1,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	7.7	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	4.3	-21.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	56.8	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	90.0	0.5
– Net Position:	11,736	-12,085	349
– Gross Longs:	14,362	20,654	537
– Gross Shorts:	2,626	32,739	188
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.9	3.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-11.5	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

21 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (55,279 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (53,282 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (16,688 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (6,517 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-272,311 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-64,826 contracts), the Fed Funds (-56,451 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-42,478 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4,642 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

10-Year Note Leads Price Returns this week

Leading the price performance over the last five days, the 10-Year Note rose by a modest 0.27% followed by the US Treasury Bond which rose by 0.20%. The 5-Year Bond was marginally higher by 0.17%, and the 2-Year Bond was a tick higher at 0.07%.

The 1-Month SOFR was up a tick by 0.03% while the Fed Funds was virtually unchanged at -0.01%. The 3-Month SOFR was also lower by -0.06%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

On the downside, the Fed Funds (23 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently while the next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (23.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (31.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (26.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (39.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (83.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (68.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (85.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (83.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (68.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (69.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (61.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (58.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (36.4 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (44 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-55.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-50.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (7.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (43.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (37.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (49.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-20.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-13.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -231,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -56,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -174,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	66.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	56.7	1.5
– Net Position:	-231,181	212,864	18,317
– Gross Longs:	169,495	1,422,169	51,309
– Gross Shorts:	400,676	1,209,305	32,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	75.1	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.6	55.9	-1.7

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -734,430 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -272,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -462,119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	58.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	53.4	0.3
– Net Position:	-734,430	732,874	1,556
– Gross Longs:	1,560,490	7,900,000	45,620
– Gross Shorts:	2,294,920	7,167,126	44,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	77.5	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.1	20.1	0.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -95,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	61.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	54.4	0.0
– Net Position:	-95,055	95,078	-23
– Gross Longs:	275,903	851,086	171
– Gross Shorts:	370,958	756,008	194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	38.9	66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.3	-37.2	-0.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,234,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 55,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	75.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	52.0	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,234,408	1,125,715	108,693
– Gross Longs:	707,467	3,577,502	230,853
– Gross Shorts:	1,941,875	2,451,787	122,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	76.5	43.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-10.2	-10.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,157,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -42,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,114,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	80.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	52.8	4.2
– Net Position:	-2,157,242	2,019,604	137,638
– Gross Longs:	541,351	5,943,599	451,754
– Gross Shorts:	2,698,593	3,923,995	314,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	75.3	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-6.8	-8.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -877,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -64,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -813,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	78.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	63.9	6.6
– Net Position:	-877,853	806,961	70,892
– Gross Longs:	500,097	4,461,711	449,456
– Gross Shorts:	1,377,950	3,654,750	378,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	74.2	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-0.5	-11.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -100,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 53,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	78.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	68.9	13.9
– Net Position:	-100,029	236,624	-136,595
– Gross Longs:	283,246	2,017,361	222,759
– Gross Shorts:	383,275	1,780,737	359,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	37.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.7	-19.9	-68.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	71.6	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	79.7	6.5
– Net Position:	6,425	-147,788	141,363
– Gross Longs:	207,041	1,315,962	261,044
– Gross Shorts:	200,616	1,463,750	119,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.6	1.4	82.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-10.7	16.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -275,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -270,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	71.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-275,188	253,624	21,564
– Gross Longs:	153,460	1,860,075	197,124
– Gross Shorts:	428,648	1,606,451	175,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	39.3	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	10.0	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Feb

COT Energy Charts: WTI Crude Speculator Bets rise to highest level since August

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (23,529 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (80 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-13,947 contracts), Heating Oil (-4,050 contracts), Gasoline (-1,214 contracts) and with Brent Oil (-185 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

WTI Crude Speculator Bets rise to highest level since August

Leading the energy markets for speculative bets this week was WTI Crude Oil, which rose by over +23,000 contracts on the week. This was the fifth week out of the past six that the WTI net large speculative positions improved.

This recent positive sentiment has pushed the overall net speculative standing above the +100,000 contract level for the first time since September. This week’s speculative position (+141,343 net contracts) is now at the highest standing since August 5th of 2025, a span of 28 weeks.

Heating Oil and Brent Oil lead the Energy Market Price Performances on the Week

Leading the energy markets over the past week was Heating Oil with a 7.55% gain. Brent Crude Oil was not far behind with a 6.27% increase, while WTI Crude Oil also advanced by 5.85%. Gasoline was higher by 4.70% and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 3.03% uptick on the week.

Natural Gas was the only market over the last five trading periods that was lower with a -3.38% decrease.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gasoline & Heating Oil

On the downside, Natural Gas (5.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Brent Oil (29.4 percent) and then WTI Crude (32.7 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (32.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (25.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (29.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (29.7 percent)
Natural Gas (5.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (15.1 percent)
Gasoline (85.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (86.4 percent)
Heating Oil (63.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (55.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (55.0 percent)

WTI Crude & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that WTI Crude (27.1 percent) and Gasoline (20.7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-14.2 percent) and Brent Oil (-12.0 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-4.6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (27.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (17.2 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-12.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-12.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-14.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-11.9 percent)
Gasoline (20.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (18.7 percent)
Heating Oil (-4.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (2.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (13.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (25.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 141,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	41.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	49.7	2.0
– Net Position:	141,343	-181,629	40,286
– Gross Longs:	321,645	855,378	81,123
– Gross Shorts:	180,302	1,037,007	40,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	61.3	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-33.9	55.5

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	41.8	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	28.7	2.3
– Net Position:	-36,267	35,690	577
– Gross Longs:	59,005	113,992	6,755
– Gross Shorts:	95,272	78,302	6,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	73.8	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	15.9	-22.6

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -185,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -171,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	38.2	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	27.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-185,812	174,798	11,014
– Gross Longs:	205,853	615,910	53,277
– Gross Shorts:	391,665	441,112	42,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	95.1	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	14.1	-1.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	46.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	68.2	3.2
– Net Position:	88,742	-101,984	13,242
– Gross Longs:	117,261	214,865	28,300
– Gross Shorts:	28,519	316,849	15,058
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.1	9.8	97.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-27.7	50.6

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	48.6	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	58.0	7.5
– Net Position:	15,402	-35,615	20,213
– Gross Longs:	63,052	183,343	48,508
– Gross Shorts:	47,650	218,958	28,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	32.6	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	-7.6	31.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 80 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	69.3	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	64.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-10,939	10,174	765
– Gross Longs:	54,901	136,855	790
– Gross Shorts:	65,840	126,681	25
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	31.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	42.9	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-19.1	53.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

21 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (45,457 contracts) with Wheat (16,200 contracts), Corn (10,495 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,974 contracts), Live Cattle (5,979 contracts) and Cocoa (1,328 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-18,191 contracts), Lean Hogs (-15,873 contracts), Cotton (-4,407 contracts), Soybean Oil (-1,306 contracts) and with Coffee (-1,071 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Wheat leads Price Price Performance Leaders

Price performance leaders were Wheat and Soybean Oil this week. Wheat was the highest riser in the past five days with a 3.89% gain and Soybean Oil was higher by 3.25% in the same period.

Lean Hogs rose by 2.58%, Cotton was higher by 2.35%, and Sugar also got a boost by over 2% on the week. Live Cattle rose by approximately 1% and Soybean Meal saw a gain of 0.62%. Soybeans and Corn were virtually unchanged on the week.

Leading the declines on the week was Cocoa, which dropped sharply by approximately -15% and followed by Coffee which was also lower by -4.87%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybeans, Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybeans (86 percent), Lean Hogs (74 percent) and Soybean Oil (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Wheat (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cocoa (1 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (35.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.7 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.4 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (37.2 percent)
Soybeans (86.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (76.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (37.2 percent)
Live Cattle (68.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (73.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (85.3 percent)
Cotton (5.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.5 percent)
Cocoa (1.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (55.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (41.6 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (60 percent) and Wheat (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (19 percent), Lean Hogs (18 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-19 percent), Coffee (-18 percent) and Cotton (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.7 percent)
Sugar (-18.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.3 percent)
Coffee (-17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-10.7 percent)
Soybeans (19.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (59.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (10.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.8 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.1 percent)
Cocoa (-19.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-20.6 percent)
Wheat (29.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	46.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	45.3	9.3
– Net Position:	-7,835	25,990	-18,155
– Gross Longs:	336,717	831,608	146,498
– Gross Shorts:	344,552	805,618	164,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	61.1	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	10.3	0.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -253,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	56.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	32.7	8.6
– Net Position:	-253,592	265,824	-12,232
– Gross Longs:	171,981	625,812	82,477
– Gross Shorts:	425,573	359,988	94,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	17.6	-7.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	42.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	50.0	5.0
– Net Position:	12,860	-12,616	-244
– Gross Longs:	47,502	65,722	7,517
– Gross Shorts:	34,642	78,338	7,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	66.0	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.4	-22.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 191,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	47.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	63.1	8.5
– Net Position:	191,791	-157,771	-34,020
– Gross Longs:	274,388	463,652	49,618
– Gross Shorts:	82,597	621,423	83,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.2	16.5	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-15.4	-54.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	47.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	55.8	3.7
– Net Position:	51,971	-62,880	10,909
– Gross Longs:	155,039	335,704	37,409
– Gross Shorts:	103,068	398,584	26,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	25.8	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	59.6	-62.7	67.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	60.7	5.5
– Net Position:	18,346	-36,473	18,127
– Gross Longs:	109,382	283,091	47,273
– Gross Shorts:	91,036	319,564	29,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	61.3	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-14.4	37.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 91,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	31.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	54.7	12.3
– Net Position:	91,735	-78,353	-13,382
– Gross Longs:	150,433	102,308	27,276
– Gross Shorts:	58,698	180,661	40,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	26.8	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-11.5	-5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	32.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	47.6	8.3
– Net Position:	67,022	-57,027	-9,995
– Gross Longs:	147,998	119,956	20,920
– Gross Shorts:	80,976	176,983	30,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	30.3	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-16.8	-21.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	46.2	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	30.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-55,733	54,389	1,344
– Gross Longs:	99,583	156,452	15,630
– Gross Shorts:	155,316	102,063	14,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	92.3	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.3	-19.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	48.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	37.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-17,618	17,159	459
– Gross Longs:	29,310	74,716	11,431
– Gross Shorts:	46,928	57,557	10,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	98.6	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	17.9	10.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	35.5	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	23.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-55,058	58,384	-3,326
– Gross Longs:	122,049	167,707	32,177
– Gross Shorts:	177,107	109,323	35,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	46.2	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-26.4	-37.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Feb

Currency Speculators boost Euro bets to highest since 2023, CAD bets go Bullish

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (31,227 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,972 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (18,176 contracts), the Japanese Yen (14,711 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (13,451 contracts), the Brazilian Real (12,117 contracts), the US Dollar Index (3,553 contracts), the British Pound (2,251 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,176 contracts) and Bitcoin (318 contracts) with also showing positive weeks.

The currency seeing declines in speculator bets on the week was the Mexican Peso with a drop by -12,522 contracts on the week.

Currency Speculators sharply boost Euro bets to highest since 2023, CAD bets go Bullish

Highlighting this week’s currency speculator changes were the strong gains in the Euro, the Australian Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar.

First off, the Euro jumped by over 30,000 contracts this week and this week’s gain marked the largest one-week gain since March of 2025, when speculative bets surged by over +46,000 contracts. This week’s surge follows last week’s rise by over 20,000 contracts and has now pushed the overall speculative level to a total of 163,361 net contracts, which marks the highest level for the Euro bets dating back to August 1st of 2023. The European currency’s speculative standing has now been above +100,000 net contracts for 10 consecutive weeks, and for 30 out of the last 34 weeks as well. The Euro exchange rate this week dipped slightly for a second consecutive week and closed out the week around the 1.1840 exchange level. Last week, however, the Euro hit its highest level since 2021 with a high around 1.2110 before retreating. We’ll see in the weeks to come if the Euro will threaten the 1.20 psychological threshold once again.

Next up, the Australian Dollar speculative bets surged higher for a second consecutive week, and are now in an overall bullish position also for a second straight week. Last week marked the first time since December of 2024 that the Australian Dollar speculative position was in bullish territory. And this week, the position grew further. The Australian Dollar exchange rate has risen for three consecutive weeks, and this week closed at the highest levels since 2023, where it closed above the 0.700 significant psychological level. The Australian Dollar is up by over 5% against the U.S. Dollar this year so far, and is higher by about 14% since the start of 2025. The weekly RSI for the Australian Dollar is currently in overbought position so we’ll see if the Aussie can hold these multi-year high levels.

The Canadian Dollar speculator positions rose for a third consecutive week, as well as the eighth time in the last ten weeks that speculator bets have been bullish. Overall, the net standing for the Canadian Dollar speculators this week went bullish with a total of 2,130 net contracts. This is the first time the Canadian Dollar has seen a bullish net contract level since August 1st of 2023, a span of 131 straight weeks. The turnaround in the Canadian Dollar speculator positions has been fast and furious as the net position totaled a -130,600 contracts as recently as December 9th. And then eight weeks later, the net position has managed to turn bullish. In the foreign exchange markets, the Canadian Dollar trades right around its 200-week moving average at the 0.7333 exchange rate. This week, the CAD fell a little bit, but has been higher in total over the past three weeks. Time will tell if the CAD can break through its 200-weekly moving average level and can work its way back to the strong support and resistance level of 0.7500.

The US Dollar Index saw improving bets for the second consecutive week and for the ninth time out of the last 10 weeks. This has taken the speculator level from a total of -16,347 net contracts down to a tiny bearish level of just -852 net contracts this week. Overall, the Dollar Index has consistently been in a bearish level dating back to June 10th of 2025, a span of 34 consecutive weeks. In the foreign exchange market, the US Dollar Index saw a boost this week after falling for the previous two weeks and trades at the 97.50 level. Since the beginning of 2025, the Dollar Index has fallen by over 10%, however, prices have bounced off the 96.00 area three times since June. We’ll see if the Dollar Index can hold this level and can find its way higher or will eventually break lower.

Finally, the Swiss Franc positions rose modestly for a third consecutive week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. Interestingly, the Swiss Franc speculator net position is highly bearish and has been in an overall bearish level dating all the way back to September of 2021 while the Swiss Franc exchange rate is at the strongest levels it has traded since 2011. The dichotomy in the speculator positions versus the strength of the currency can be explained through hedging, as there has been reports that many business entities are hedging away the historic strength of the Swiss Franc at the current time while the Franc is also a sought-after safe haven in an uncertain geopolitical time. Currently, the Swiss Franc trades at 1.2946 against the U.S. Dollar in the exchange markets. Since the beginning of 2025, the Franc is up by approximately 18% against the U.S. Dollar and looks to be threatening the 1.30 major level.

Mexican Peso leads Currency Price Returns this week

The major currency markets price performance was led by the Mexican Peso this week. The Peso was the highest riser by 1.25% over the past five days. The Brazilian Real followed that up with a 0.99% gain. The Australian Dollar was higher by 0.79%. The US Dollar Index showed a 0.60% rise. The New Zealand Dollar was virtually unchanged at a 0.04% dip, followed by the euro which fell by 0.26%. The Canadian Dollar was lower by 0.28%. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.30%. The British Pound was lower by 0.48%. The Japanese Yen was lower by over 1% with a 1.48% decrease.

Bitcoin was the biggest loser on the week with a 16.45% drop.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Canadian Dollar (98 percent) and the Australian Dollar (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (91 percent), Bitcoin (74 percent) and the Mexican Peso (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent), the British Pound (34 percent) and the US Dollar Index (42 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (41.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (32.2 percent)
EuroFX (91.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (33.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (32.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (45.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (41.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (97.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (88.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (81.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (72.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (79.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (62.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.6 percent)
Bitcoin (74.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (67.3 percent)

Australian Dollar & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (34 percent) and the Bitcoin (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (29 percent), the British Pound (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-6 percent), Japanese Yen (-6 percent) and the EuroFX (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (8.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (1.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (11.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-5.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-8.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (28.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (34.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (33.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-5.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.2 percent)
Bitcoin (31.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.9	25.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.9	20.3	10.2
– Net Position:	-852	1,529	-677
– Gross Longs:	16,610	7,239	2,188
– Gross Shorts:	17,462	5,710	2,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	60.7	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-8.8	1.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 163,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 31,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 132,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	53.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	77.2	4.2
– Net Position:	163,361	-218,541	55,180
– Gross Longs:	302,301	483,911	93,181
– Gross Shorts:	138,940	702,452	38,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.0	6.7	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-3.1	11.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	42.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.7	39.0	12.0
– Net Position:	-13,911	7,064	6,847
– Gross Longs:	94,893	96,004	34,151
– Gross Shorts:	108,804	88,940	27,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	63.0	71.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-14.3	24.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	40.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	35.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-19,222	14,417	4,805
– Gross Longs:	114,428	122,665	39,140
– Gross Shorts:	133,650	108,248	34,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	54.6	49.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.1	0.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,717 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	69.9	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	28.2	17.3
– Net Position:	-40,717	39,012	1,705
– Gross Longs:	9,687	65,424	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	50,404	26,412	16,153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	63.1	86.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-7.1	4.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	48.1	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	51.8	11.8
– Net Position:	2,130	-7,916	5,786
– Gross Longs:	77,397	104,119	31,230
– Gross Shorts:	75,267	112,035	25,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.9	6.8	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.6	-28.7	20.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	36.4	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	55.3	7.7
– Net Position:	26,118	-48,060	21,942
– Gross Longs:	118,751	92,582	41,430
– Gross Shorts:	92,633	140,642	19,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.8	1.3	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.9	-30.9	9.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	76.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.8	28.4	5.7
– Net Position:	-34,294	34,376	-82
– Gross Longs:	11,883	54,596	3,988
– Gross Shorts:	46,177	20,220	4,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.7	72.8	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-11.9	10.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 90,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.6	37.3	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	79.7	1.1
– Net Position:	90,592	-95,803	5,211
– Gross Longs:	132,392	84,224	7,660
– Gross Shorts:	41,800	180,027	2,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	27.3	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	5.7	1.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.5	28.0	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	68.2	1.1
– Net Position:	30,962	-35,133	4,171
– Gross Longs:	57,232	24,421	5,163
– Gross Shorts:	26,270	59,554	992
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	5.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	36.2	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	10.4	11.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.2	2.3	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.8	6.5	5.2
– Net Position:	1,008	-968	-40
– Gross Longs:	18,939	521	1,151
– Gross Shorts:	17,931	1,489	1,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	35.1	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-31.6	-3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Palladium, CAD, Sugar & Cocoa lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Palladium speculator level is currently at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 7 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 1,133 net contracts this week with an increase of 449 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week with the CAD speculator level now at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a jump by 29 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 2,130 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 18,176 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score came in at an increase by 8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 11,487 net contracts this week with a dip of -853 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 25,855 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,965 contracts in the speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The AUD speculator level sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a jump of 34 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 26,118 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 18,972 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the Sugar speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -12 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -210,289 net contracts this week with a fall of -42,536 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -16 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -14,508 net contracts this week with a rise of 994 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -7 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -42,744 net contracts this week with a decrease of -3,777 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge higher by 1 percentage point this week. The speculator position was -1,347,602 net contracts this week with a decline of -128,603 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

Next, the Natural Gas speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the Natural Gas speculator level at a 15 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -11 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -172,310 net contracts this week with a decrease by -8,704 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

08 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculators drop Gold Bets for 5th time in 6 Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (2,174 contracts) with Palladium (449 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-39,792 contracts), Steel (-853 contracts), Platinum (-816 contracts) and with Copper (-576 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculator drop Gold Bets for 5th time in 6 Weeks to 37-Week Low

Highlighting the metals data this week was sharp reduction in the Gold speculator positions. The large speculative traders sharply reduced their bullish bets again this week, which is a decline for the third consecutive week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The reduction in the bullish position now totals -85,634 contracts over just the past three weeks brings the overall Gold speculator bullish position down to a total of 165,604 contracts. This marks the lowest level for the Gold position since last May, which is a span of 37 weeks.

The Gold futures price has settled in to end the week at approximately $4,980 and rebounded this week after a hugely volatile past couple weeks. The Gold price shot all the way to $5,625 on January 29th before turning around and then falling all the way back down to a low at approximately $4,430 before rebounding. Gold is still in a parabolic uptrend overall and from the beginning of 2024 to now, the price has jumped by over 144% and has continually hit new all-time highs.

Gold leads Metals Price Performance this week

Precious metals markets were mixed on the week in their price performance. Gold was the highest mover over the past five days with a 2.3% increase. Palladium was next this week with a 1.78% rise while Steel also advanced by 0.51%.

Copper dropped by -0.52% on the week while Palladium was lower by -2.99% and Silver came out the biggest loser on the week with a -6.9% loss.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (99 percent) and Steel (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Gold (39 percent), Platinum (44 percent) and Silver (45 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (38.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (54.9 percent)
Silver (44.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (42.0 percent)
Copper (77.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (78.3 percent)
Platinum (43.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.8 percent)
Palladium (99.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (96.4 percent)
Steel (95.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (100.0 percent)

Steel & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (8 percent) and Palladium (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-18 percent) and Platinum (-16 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-30.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.7 percent)
Silver (-13.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-16.9 percent)
Copper (-17.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-15.3 percent)
Platinum (-15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.5 percent)
Palladium (6.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.9 percent)
Steel (8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (17.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 165,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -39,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 205,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	21.5	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	72.2	3.5
– Net Position:	165,604	-207,778	42,174
– Gross Longs:	214,508	87,964	56,610
– Gross Shorts:	48,904	295,742	14,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	52.9	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.8	30.4	-1.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	24.6	22.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	56.6	8.8
– Net Position:	25,877	-45,725	19,848
– Gross Longs:	38,883	35,248	32,469
– Gross Shorts:	13,006	80,973	12,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	50.1	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	10.6	8.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.9	31.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	53.7	3.1
– Net Position:	47,814	-62,551	14,737
– Gross Longs:	97,407	87,240	23,314
– Gross Shorts:	49,593	149,791	8,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.8	16.5	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	15.4	7.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	26.8	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	54.3	3.7
– Net Position:	13,106	-20,207	7,101
– Gross Longs:	31,468	19,742	9,851
– Gross Shorts:	18,362	39,949	2,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	54.4	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	13.3	12.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	31.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	44.8	8.0
– Net Position:	1,133	-2,307	1,174
– Gross Longs:	8,518	5,453	2,557
– Gross Shorts:	7,385	7,760	1,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	3.6	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-4.1	-11.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	54.9	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	90.3	0.5
– Net Position:	11,487	-11,980	493
– Gross Longs:	13,849	18,584	679
– Gross Shorts:	2,362	30,564	186
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	4.0	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.3	35.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

08 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1-Months, SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Months, SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (104,956 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (47,235 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (44,056 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,382 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-128,603 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-67,934 contracts), the Fed Funds (-78,674 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-5,437 contracts) and with the 10-Year Bonds (-3,263 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Overall in the bond market standings, speculator net positions continue to be bearish for all the bond markets we cover ranging from a small bearish position in the long US Treasury Bond (-13,604 contracts) to large bearish levels in the 2-Year Bonds (-1,347,602 contracts) and even larger bearish levels for the 5-Year Bonds (-2,158,980 contracts).

Bond Market Price Performances were led by the long US Treasury Bond

The bond market prices were mixed this week and were led by the US Treasury bond which was the highest mover on the week with a 0.47% increase. The 10-Year Note was also marginally higher by 0.14% while the 1-Month SOFR was up by 0.03% and followed by the 3-Month SOFR which saw an uptick of 0.02%.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond fell by -0.03% while the Fed Funds was down by -0.04% and the 2-Year Bond was marginally lower by -0.16%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (79 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (70 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (60 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the Fed Funds (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (26.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (27.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (49.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (50.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (60.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (48.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (78.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (80.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (70.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (68.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (59.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (41.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (32.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (29.6 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (58 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-64 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the the SOFR 3-Months (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-63.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-55.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-6.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-1.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (13.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (57.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (41.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-25.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-21.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -194,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -78,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	65.8	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	56.0	1.5
– Net Position:	-194,703	173,303	21,400
– Gross Longs:	181,635	1,162,282	47,582
– Gross Shorts:	376,338	988,979	26,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	69.5	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-63.8	64.1	-1.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -546,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 47,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -594,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	58.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	54.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-546,807	546,500	307
– Gross Longs:	1,616,585	8,021,109	40,586
– Gross Shorts:	2,163,392	7,474,609	40,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	67.9	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	25.6	-0.2

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -103,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 104,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	64.0	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	55.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-103,083	103,205	-122
– Gross Longs:	226,426	778,656	120
– Gross Shorts:	329,509	675,451	242
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	40.3	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	57.5	-57.9	6.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,347,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -128,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,218,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	75.3	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	48.4	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,347,602	1,247,780	99,822
– Gross Longs:	755,987	3,495,535	234,959
– Gross Shorts:	2,103,589	2,247,755	135,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	90.2	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	1.2	-12.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,158,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -67,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,091,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	82.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	53.1	4.5
– Net Position:	-2,158,980	2,030,958	128,022
– Gross Longs:	543,500	5,693,498	440,462
– Gross Shorts:	2,702,480	3,662,540	312,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	75.9	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-8.3	-7.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -729,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -726,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	75.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	63.6	6.5
– Net Position:	-729,414	664,990	64,424
– Gross Longs:	698,068	4,160,322	423,256
– Gross Shorts:	1,427,482	3,495,332	358,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	54.2	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	0.9	-6.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -185,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 44,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -229,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	78.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	67.2	12.5
– Net Position:	-185,818	306,416	-120,598
– Gross Longs:	291,036	2,065,570	207,872
– Gross Shorts:	476,854	1,759,154	328,470
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	56.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.8	-8.7	-63.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	74.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	79.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-13,604	-83,622	97,226
– Gross Longs:	173,194	1,285,239	237,672
– Gross Shorts:	186,798	1,368,861	140,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	19.1	53.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	11.1	-23.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -269,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -273,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	83.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	71.3	8.7
– Net Position:	-269,089	268,015	1,074
– Gross Longs:	149,389	1,828,456	191,098
– Gross Shorts:	418,478	1,560,441	190,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	44.8	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	18.3	-11.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

08 Feb

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude & Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (27,583 contracts) with Brent Oil (7,638 contracts) and Heating Oil (1,444 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-8,704 contracts), Gasoline (-2,782 contracts) and with the Bloomberg Index (-1,171 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The Energy Markets Prices were mostly lower on the week.

Gasoline was the only energy market that rose over the past five days with a small 0.09% uptick.

On the downside, Brent Oil fell by -2.82%, followed by WTI Crude Oil which fell by -3.18% and the Bloomberg Commodity Index which dipped by -3.28%. Heating oil saw a shortfall of -5.05% while Natural Gas saw a sharpest decline at -21.48%.

Over the past 30 days, all the energy markets have seen higher levels with Heating Oil up by 12.8% followed by Brent Oil which is higher by 11.2% in that time-frame. Also, over the past 90 days, all the energy markets have seen higher levels with the Bloomberg Commodity Index showing the largest gain of 15.69%.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Bloomberg Index

On the downside, Natural Gas (14.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the WTI Crude (27.3 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (27.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (18.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (32.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (21.6 percent)
Natural Gas (14.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (20.9 percent)
Gasoline (71.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (74.6 percent)
Heating Oil (76.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (72.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (78.3 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (45.2 percent) and WTI Crude (19.2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-11.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-5.4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (19.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (13.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-5.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-14.9 percent)
Natural Gas (-11.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-24.9 percent)
Gasoline (6.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (3.1 percent)
Heating Oil (15.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (11.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (45.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (72.1 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 124,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	42.1	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	49.4	2.0
– Net Position:	124,565	-152,499	27,934
– Gross Longs:	315,529	879,932	70,726
– Gross Shorts:	190,964	1,032,431	42,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	70.2	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-25.8	50.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	37.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	23.8	2.0
– Net Position:	-34,110	33,458	652
– Gross Longs:	57,804	90,456	5,467
– Gross Shorts:	91,914	56,998	4,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	70.4	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	8.7	-22.1

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -172,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -163,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	37.5	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	27.6	2.4
– Net Position:	-172,310	163,456	8,854
– Gross Longs:	215,099	620,513	48,080
– Gross Shorts:	387,409	457,057	39,226
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	87.5	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	10.7	0.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 76,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	46.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	65.1	3.2
– Net Position:	76,431	-88,857	12,426
– Gross Longs:	116,257	216,553	27,515
– Gross Shorts:	39,826	305,410	15,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	23.0	93.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-12.5	39.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	46.5	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	58.6	7.8
– Net Position:	25,279	-44,051	18,772
– Gross Longs:	62,759	170,829	47,433
– Gross Shorts:	37,480	214,880	28,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.8	24.6	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-13.1	4.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	72.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	69.1	0.0
– Net Position:	-7,246	6,537	709
– Gross Longs:	44,675	133,218	732
– Gross Shorts:	51,921	126,681	23
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	31.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	25.5	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.2	-46.3	4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

08 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Sugar Speculator Bets hit All-Time Record Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,433 contracts) with Wheat (13,894 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,118 contracts), Soybeans (6,736 contracts), Live Cattle (2,871 contracts) and Cocoa (994 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-42,536 contracts), Coffee (-14,370 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,369 contracts), Cotton (-3,777 contracts) and with Corn (-3,027 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft commodities price performance was led by Lean Hogs, Soybean Oil, and Soybeans

The top movers this week in price performance for the soft commodities markets were Lean Hogs with a gain of 3.74%, followed by Soybean Oil which rose by 3.17%, and Soybeans which rose by 3.46% over the past five days. Corn was virtually unchanged with a small rise of 0.11%, while Live Cattle was unchanged on the week.

On the downside, Sugar fell by -0.76%, while Cocoa was lower by -1.10% and wheat was down by -1.29%. Cotton dropped by over two percent with a -2.30% decline, while Soybean Meal fell by -3.76%. Coffee was the biggest decliner on the week with a sharp drop of -10.05%.

Sugar Speculator Bets hit all-time low

Highlighting the soft commodities changes this week was an all-time record low hit in the Sugar speculator positions. The large speculator bets for Sugar fell for the fifth consecutive week, and have now fallen by over -72,000 contracts in just these past five weeks. This week’s decline by over -42,000 contracts marked the largest shortfall in spec bets since September, a span of 21 weeks.

Sugar bets for speculators were positive as recently as May of last year, but turned negative on June 3rd, and have now been in an overall bearish position for 36 consecutive weeks. The speculator bets have pushed their bearish positions greater than -100,000 net contracts for 22 consecutive weeks. This weak sentiment culminated in an all-time record low standing for speculators at a total position of -210,289 contracts through Tuesday.

The Sugar price in the futures market has been on a deep, strong downtrend and has fallen approximately 34% in the past 52 weeks. The Sugar price had been on a strong uptrend starting from April of 2020 all the way through November of 2023, where prices rose by over 200%. Since that 2022 high, however, prices have gone the other way and have declined by over 50% and are currently hovering near five-year lows.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (83 percent) and Live Cattle (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Soybeans (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cocoa (3 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (31.9 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.7 percent)
Coffee (41.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.0 percent)
Soybeans (57.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (64.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (29.8 percent)
Live Cattle (68.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (65.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (82.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (73.2 percent)
Cotton (13.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.9 percent)
Cocoa (3.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.2 percent)
Wheat (46.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (34.4 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (54 percent) and Lean Hogs (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (13 percent) and Wheat (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-16 percent), Corn (-14 percent) and Sugar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-13.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.3 percent)
Sugar (-12.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.1 percent)
Coffee (-5.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (2.8 percent)
Soybeans (-20.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-30.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (54.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-0.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.5 percent)
Live Cattle (12.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.1 percent)
Cotton (-6.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-15.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-16.5 percent)
Wheat (5.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	44.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	41.6	9.2
– Net Position:	-34,698	52,916	-18,218
– Gross Longs:	344,781	777,607	142,658
– Gross Shorts:	379,479	724,691	160,876
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	65.2	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	14.2	6.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -210,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -42,536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	57.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	35.0	9.9
– Net Position:	-210,289	236,034	-25,745
– Gross Longs:	154,357	606,374	78,697
– Gross Shorts:	364,646	370,340	104,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	14.4	-25.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	44.2	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	54.7	4.6
– Net Position:	18,364	-18,837	473
– Gross Longs:	49,342	79,405	8,768
– Gross Shorts:	30,978	98,242	8,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	60.0	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	6.0	-14.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	51.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	56.3	8.2
– Net Position:	64,167	-43,272	-20,895
– Gross Longs:	177,970	454,017	51,496
– Gross Shorts:	113,803	497,289	72,391
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	42.7	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	24.5	-35.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	47.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	53.5	4.3
– Net Position:	35,907	-39,953	4,046
– Gross Longs:	138,652	317,654	32,766
– Gross Shorts:	102,745	357,607	28,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	38.1	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.2	-54.2	35.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	52.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	55.0	6.0
– Net Position:	2,824	-15,616	12,792
– Gross Longs:	113,333	284,653	45,555
– Gross Shorts:	110,509	300,269	32,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	69.3	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	0.1	2.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 91,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	32.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	55.9	11.9
– Net Position:	91,849	-79,657	-12,192
– Gross Longs:	151,701	108,319	27,757
– Gross Shorts:	59,852	187,976	39,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	25.2	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-17.0	3.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 79,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,936 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	30.2	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	49.0	8.6
– Net Position:	79,369	-70,574	-8,795
– Gross Longs:	161,832	113,508	23,472
– Gross Shorts:	82,463	184,082	32,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	20.0	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.9	-29.5	-18.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,777 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	49.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	38.0	3.7
– Net Position:	-42,744	42,398	346
– Gross Longs:	101,788	186,654	14,382
– Gross Shorts:	144,532	144,256	14,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	85.7	25.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	6.1	0.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	47.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	39.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-14,508	13,961	547
– Gross Longs:	31,042	76,466	10,089
– Gross Shorts:	45,550	62,505	9,542
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.2	95.7	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	12.8	23.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	36.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	24.2	6.1
– Net Position:	-65,496	67,064	-1,568
– Gross Longs:	121,319	198,550	31,828
– Gross Shorts:	186,815	131,486	33,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.7	54.8	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-5.3	-5.9

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COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

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