COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculators continue to raise US Dollar Index Bets into 2025

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were just slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (11,436 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (4,084 contracts), the EuroFX (3,727 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (2,535 contracts) and Bitcoin (145 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-14,068 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-9,222 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,198 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,394 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,897 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-813 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators continue to raise US Dollar Index Bets into 2025

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increase in the speculator’s positioning for the US Dollar Index that’s carried over from December into the new year. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions rose this week by over 4,000+ contracts and have now gained for five consecutive weeks. This recent rise in speculator sentiment has been carried over each week from December 17th to January 14th for a total +15,953 net contract boost over the 5-week period.

This has pushed the overall bullish speculator position above the +10,000 contract threshold for the first time since September 10th. The Dollar Index bets, previously, had spent a total of seven weeks in October, November and early December in bearish or negative contract territory before finally turning around in mid-December.

The Dollar Index futures price (DX) was slightly lower to close this week but overall the trend has been higher for the DX. Since the last short-term bottom on the weekly charts in September – the DX has advanced by over 9 percent and broken through previous resistance areas from 107.50 to 109.00. Currently, the Dollar Index price is sitting right around the 109.40 level with the weekly RSI signaling a slightly overbought level of 70.10.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Japanese Yen

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (3 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent), the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (33.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (24.6 percent)
EuroFX (5.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (36.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (42.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (61.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (65.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (24.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (31.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (35.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.8 percent)
Bitcoin (80.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.3 percent)

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (64 percent) and the US Dollar Index (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Australian Dollar (-70 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-34 percent), Brazilian Real (-17 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (32.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (23.7 percent)
EuroFX (-1.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-3.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-8.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (1.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-3.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-11.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-70.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-74.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-33.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-24.1 percent)
Bitcoin (63.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (52.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.5	24.0	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	55.2	5.4
– Net Position:	12,729	-14,288	1,559
– Gross Longs:	29,512	10,978	4,033
– Gross Shorts:	16,783	25,266	2,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	65.9	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.7	-31.7	3.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	56.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	48.4	10.0
– Net Position:	-60,397	48,337	12,060
– Gross Longs:	162,760	341,025	72,682
– Gross Shorts:	223,157	292,688	60,622
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	97.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	4.7	-24.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	47.0	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	39.5	18.5
– Net Position:	438	14,985	-15,423
– Gross Longs:	80,557	94,313	21,817
– Gross Shorts:	80,119	79,328	37,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	67.3	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	9.5	-10.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	39.3	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	25.5	18.7
– Net Position:	-29,411	31,023	-1,612
– Gross Longs:	91,434	88,113	40,268
– Gross Shorts:	120,845	57,090	41,880
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	39.9	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	11.5	1.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -813 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	23.8	26.5
– Net Position:	-38,701	56,343	-17,642
– Gross Longs:	7,557	78,690	7,316
– Gross Shorts:	46,258	22,347	24,958
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	91.3	4.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	4.9	-22.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	83.6	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	31.8	11.9
– Net Position:	-167,153	181,481	-14,328
– Gross Longs:	23,031	292,957	27,533
– Gross Shorts:	190,184	111,476	41,861
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	90.8	0.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	6.6	-21.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -77,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	69.9	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	24.4	17.2
– Net Position:	-77,631	87,297	-9,666
– Gross Longs:	26,135	134,239	23,314
– Gross Shorts:	103,766	46,942	32,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	82.0	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-70.3	65.3	-27.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -52,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	83.8	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.4	24.4	6.7
– Net Position:	-52,089	54,644	-2,555
– Gross Longs:	10,921	77,144	3,632
– Gross Shorts:	63,010	22,500	6,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	97.2	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	33.1	-1.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	54.5	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	57.1	4.2
– Net Position:	5,997	-3,765	-2,232
– Gross Longs:	57,188	77,842	3,823
– Gross Shorts:	51,191	81,607	6,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	72.3	10.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.0	0.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,977 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	68.0	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.8	20.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-34,874	36,067	-1,193
– Gross Longs:	19,951	51,899	2,111
– Gross Shorts:	54,825	15,832	3,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	83.0	14.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	16.3	0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,335 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,190 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.7	3.7	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.9	8.0	3.2
– Net Position:	1,335	-1,520	185
– Gross Longs:	28,966	1,330	1,304
– Gross Shorts:	27,631	2,850	1,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	25.5	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	63.9	-63.9	-27.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

19 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Coffee, NZD & Euro lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 14th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 25.3 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 123,285 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,740 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is now at a 96.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.8 this week. The speculator position registered 72,642 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 8,508 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 88.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -0.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,183 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 414 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 87.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -11.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 76,542 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,797 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gold speculator level sits at a 86.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.5 this week.

The speculator position was 279,363 net contracts this week with a rise of 24,452 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 3.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -52,089 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,535 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 5.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.1 this week. The speculator position was -60,397 net contracts this week with a move up by 3,727 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 6.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 14,162 net contracts this week with a drop of -35,665 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Cotton speculator level is at a 7.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.9 this week. The speculator position was -35,741 net contracts this week with a decline by -3,657 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 10.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.4 this week. The speculator position was -1,777,621 net contracts this week with a boost of 23,282 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

19 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led higher by Gold, Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (24,452 contracts) with Copper (7,568 contracts), Silver (5,132 contracts), Palladium (784 contracts) and Steel (414 contracts) also coming in with positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Platinum with a dip by -2,287 contracts over the period.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

On the downside, Palladium (41 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (86.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (77.0 percent)
Silver (74.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.9 percent)
Copper (44.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (37.2 percent)
Platinum (52.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (58.2 percent)
Palladium (40.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (35.2 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.4 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (7 percent) and Silver (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (7.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.7 percent)
Silver (3.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.3 percent)
Copper (1.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.3 percent)
Platinum (-11.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.9 percent)
Palladium (-19.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-25.4 percent)
Steel (-0.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 279,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.4	17.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	74.9	4.8
– Net Position:	279,363	-302,452	23,089
– Gross Longs:	312,568	92,075	48,250
– Gross Shorts:	33,205	394,527	25,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.3	13.4	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-5.8	-12.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,948 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.6	21.5	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	61.2	8.9
– Net Position:	46,080	-59,676	13,596
– Gross Longs:	71,511	32,379	27,024
– Gross Shorts:	25,431	92,055	13,428
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	28.4	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	2.6	-25.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	36.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.0	43.5	6.1
– Net Position:	11,838	-14,543	2,705
– Gross Longs:	84,904	76,426	15,377
– Gross Shorts:	73,066	90,969	12,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	57.9	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	0.2	-9.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.8	20.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	47.8	5.9
– Net Position:	15,560	-20,344	4,784
– Gross Longs:	47,098	15,507	9,246
– Gross Shorts:	31,538	35,851	4,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	47.3	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	18.8	-54.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.6	44.8	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.6	7.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-8,330	7,506	824
– Gross Longs:	7,855	9,114	2,279
– Gross Shorts:	16,185	1,608	1,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	5.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	57.5	73.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	19.0	1.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	68.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	60.3	0.7
– Net Position:	-2,183	2,120	63
– Gross Longs:	7,148	18,659	263
– Gross Shorts:	9,331	16,539	200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	12.7	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	0.7	-0.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

19 Jan

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (104,511 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (23,282 contracts), SOFR 1-Month (18,448 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (16,879 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,966 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-280,332 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-64,188 contracts), the Fed Funds (-19,504 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6,845 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (84 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (82 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (11 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (20.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (23.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (54.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (44.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (37.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (38.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (83.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (77.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (81.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (79.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (66.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (62.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (23.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (37.5 percent)

10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (31 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (20 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-29 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-29.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-22.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-3.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (30.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (10.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-10.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-20.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (26.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (49.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-9.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.6 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -186,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	70.9	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	60.3	2.2
– Net Position:	-186,720	190,792	-4,072
– Gross Longs:	187,498	1,268,975	35,226
– Gross Shorts:	374,218	1,078,183	39,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	76.7	77.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	29.7	-10.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -720,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -280,332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -440,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	61.1	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	54.1	0.2
– Net Position:	-720,849	716,108	4,741
– Gross Longs:	1,221,391	6,283,050	24,000
– Gross Shorts:	1,942,240	5,566,942	19,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	76.6	90.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	8.5	10.9

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	61.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	60.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-7,524	7,757	-233
– Gross Longs:	343,490	849,795	143
– Gross Shorts:	351,014	842,038	376
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	33.5	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-26.7	-3.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,257,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -64,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,193,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	76.6	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	50.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,257,206	1,144,456	112,750
– Gross Longs:	570,377	3,295,697	252,707
– Gross Shorts:	1,827,583	2,151,241	139,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	85.4	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	6.3	-8.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,777,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,800,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.1	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.0	57.8	4.9
– Net Position:	-1,777,621	1,669,604	108,017
– Gross Longs:	362,051	5,210,168	407,806
– Gross Shorts:	2,139,672	3,540,564	299,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	87.8	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-4.6	-2.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -567,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 104,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -672,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	74.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	63.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-567,935	508,311	59,624
– Gross Longs:	677,811	3,505,753	440,081
– Gross Shorts:	1,245,746	2,997,442	380,457
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	41.0	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.6	-40.9	2.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -140,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,387 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	74.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	66.8	12.1
– Net Position:	-140,232	177,767	-37,535
– Gross Longs:	306,385	1,660,363	231,947
– Gross Shorts:	446,617	1,482,596	269,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	35.7	89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-14.3	9.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 52 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 16,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	64.2	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	67.1	8.1
– Net Position:	52	-56,832	56,780
– Gross Longs:	454,757	1,245,292	214,663
– Gross Shorts:	454,705	1,302,124	157,883
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	9.7	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-15.4	-8.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -242,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	81.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	67.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-242,422	250,327	-7,905
– Gross Longs:	149,112	1,471,577	173,518
– Gross Shorts:	391,534	1,221,250	181,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.8	27.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	22.2	-29.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

19 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Wagers led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (64,519 contracts) with Soybean Oil (28,603 contracts), Corn (28,262 contracts), Coffee (8,508 contracts), Live Cattle (4,740 contracts) and Lean Hogs (3,797 contracts) also coming in with a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-35,665 contracts), Soybean Meal (-3,865 contracts), Cotton (-3,657 contracts), Wheat (-2,735 contracts) and with Cocoa (1,066 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (100 percent) and Coffee (97 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (87 percent), Corn (78 percent) and Soybean Oil (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (6 percent), Cotton (7 percent), Wheat (12 percent) and Soybean Meal (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (78.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (74.6 percent)
Sugar (6.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.0 percent)
Coffee (96.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybeans (50.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (60.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (44.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (16.7 percent)
Live Cattle (100.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (95.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (87.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (84.0 percent)
Cotton (7.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.5 percent)
Cocoa (47.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.5 percent)
Wheat (11.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.1 percent)

Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (27 percent) and Corn (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (25 percent), Coffee (6 percent) and Soybean Oil (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-16 percent), Cotton (-15 percent) and Lean Hogs (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (26.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.3 percent)
Sugar (-26.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-9.3 percent)
Coffee (5.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-6.3 percent)
Soybeans (26.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-16.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.0 percent)
Live Cattle (25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (23.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-11.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.6 percent)
Cotton (-14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-10.2 percent)
Cocoa (-0.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.0 percent)
Wheat (-16.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-21.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 348,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 319,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	43.8	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	58.6	10.4
– Net Position:	348,075	-272,419	-75,656
– Gross Longs:	534,428	805,779	116,368
– Gross Shorts:	186,353	1,078,198	192,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	26.3	7.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-22.6	-53.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -35,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	54.1	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	55.2	7.0
– Net Position:	14,162	-9,913	-4,249
– Gross Longs:	228,583	534,962	64,921
– Gross Shorts:	214,421	544,875	69,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	93.6	14.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	28.3	-31.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 72,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	30.6	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.4	71.3	3.7
– Net Position:	72,642	-76,440	3,798
– Gross Longs:	80,944	57,474	10,766
– Gross Shorts:	8,302	133,914	6,968
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	2.3	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-6.4	11.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,518 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 64,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	55.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	53.4	8.7
– Net Position:	14,518	18,411	-32,929
– Gross Longs:	186,047	459,142	38,496
– Gross Shorts:	171,529	440,731	71,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	53.3	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-24.1	-41.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	55.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	61.0	5.2
– Net Position:	34,403	-33,971	-432
– Gross Longs:	132,019	310,204	28,665
– Gross Shorts:	97,616	344,175	29,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	46.1	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-0.8	-22.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	50.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	48.0	5.6
– Net Position:	-30,026	10,882	19,144
– Gross Longs:	97,806	278,713	50,339
– Gross Shorts:	127,832	267,831	31,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.1	82.0	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-0.1	-16.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 123,285 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	27.1	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	53.2	14.2
– Net Position:	123,285	-96,439	-26,846
– Gross Longs:	192,036	100,399	25,870
– Gross Shorts:	68,751	196,838	52,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	4.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.3	-28.7	-8.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 76,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	32.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	55.7	9.8
– Net Position:	76,542	-69,200	-7,342
– Gross Longs:	129,741	98,041	21,949
– Gross Shorts:	53,199	167,241	29,291
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.0	11.7	34.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	11.7	8.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	48.5	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	34.7	5.6
– Net Position:	-35,741	35,448	293
– Gross Longs:	63,438	124,563	14,607
– Gross Shorts:	99,179	89,115	14,314
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.0	91.7	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	13.5	1.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.4	38.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	73.1	4.0
– Net Position:	36,860	-43,101	6,241
– Gross Longs:	49,216	48,250	11,182
– Gross Shorts:	12,356	91,351	4,941
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	49.8	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	0.5	-1.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -82,209 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	34.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	17.8	6.6
– Net Position:	-82,209	79,485	2,724
– Gross Longs:	138,772	164,182	33,946
– Gross Shorts:	220,981	84,697	31,222
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	84.6	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	10.5	41.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

19 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led higher by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (31,661 contracts) with the VIX (4,324 contracts), the Russell-Mini (2,089 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (626 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-8,236 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (-1,313 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-244 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (81 percent) and the VIX (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (72.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (68.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (60.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (64.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (55.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (68.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (81.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (79.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (42.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (42.9 percent)

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (12 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (7 percent) and the VIX (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-15 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-10.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-15.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-29.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (7.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (4.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	44.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	34.9	9.2
– Net Position:	-26,730	28,181	-1,451
– Gross Longs:	63,637	135,636	26,958
– Gross Shorts:	90,367	107,455	28,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	31.9	72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-2.8	-12.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 31,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,203 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	71.6	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	75.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-30,542	-85,660	116,202
– Gross Longs:	256,358	1,462,893	268,436
– Gross Shorts:	286,900	1,548,553	152,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.2	28.1	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-6.3	-12.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	61.7	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	70.2	12.5
– Net Position:	1,446	-6,960	5,514
– Gross Longs:	14,679	50,479	15,757
– Gross Shorts:	13,233	57,439	10,243
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.7	28.1	86.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	9.7	14.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	57.7	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	67.2	10.4
– Net Position:	10,534	-24,050	13,516
– Gross Longs:	62,849	146,458	40,041
– Gross Shorts:	52,315	170,508	26,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.5	27.7	80.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.7	18.1	4.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	73.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	76.7	4.1
– Net Position:	-1,095	-15,457	16,552
– Gross Longs:	67,859	332,601	35,166
– Gross Shorts:	68,954	348,058	18,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	14.5	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-0.2	-28.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	70.5	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	45.2	18.6
– Net Position:	-2,818	2,628	190
– Gross Longs:	946	7,317	2,117
– Gross Shorts:	3,764	4,689	1,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	44.8	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	9.6	-19.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -27,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	88.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	83.2	1.7
– Net Position:	-27,025	23,935	3,090
– Gross Longs:	36,119	386,373	10,665
– Gross Shorts:	63,144	362,438	7,575
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	58.2	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-2.7	-8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

22 Dec

US Dollar Index Speculator bets rise for 1st time in 7 weeks, AUD bets plunge

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Swiss Franc & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Swiss Franc (13,192 contracts) with the EuroFX (9,678 contracts), the US Dollar Index (8,865 contracts), the Mexican Peso (6,686 contracts) and Bitcoin (891 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-70,016 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-19,791 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-14,300 contracts), the British Pound (-5,478 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-4,544 contracts) and with the Canadian Dollar (-501 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculator bets rise for 1st time in 7 weeks, AUD bets plunge

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increase in the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions jumped this week for the first time in the past seven weeks and by the highest weekly amount (+8,865 contracts) since June.

The Dollar Index bets had fallen for seven straight weeks and spec positions were in bearish territory for the past five weeks before this week’s gain. Now, the Dollar Index is back in a bullish standing and at the highest level since September. Speculators had been cutting their bullish bets despite the strong buying action in the markets for the Dollar.

The Dollar Index futures (DX) rose again this week for a third consecutive week and have now been higher in ten out of the past twelve weeks. This week’s high level over 108 is the highest point touched since 2022 and the DX managed to close over the 107.00 level for the first time since November.

Australian dollar bets plunge

The Australian dollar speculator positions fell by the most on record this week with a huge drop by -70,016 contracts. This surpasses the previous most bearish weekly plunge of -56,065 contracts that took place in 2007 around the time of the Great Financial Crisis.

The Australian Dollar exchange versus the US Dollar has been falling sharply with declines in eleven out of the past twelve weeks as well. The AUD exchange level closed at 0.6267 on Friday, marking the lowest close since the fourth quarter of 2022.

The strong Dollar has been laying waste to most of the other major currencies as the Euro, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso and the Brazilian real are all trading at or near multi-year lows.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (76 percent) and the Swiss Franc (57 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent), the EuroFX (4 percent), the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the US Dollar Index (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (18.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.0 percent)
EuroFX (3.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (76.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (83.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (56.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (82.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (19.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (36.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (32.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (32.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (36.5 percent)
Bitcoin (55.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (35.6 percent)

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (36 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (17 percent) and the US Dollar Index (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-66 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-47 percent), EuroFX (-17 percent) and the British Pound (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (11.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-10.2 percent)
EuroFX (-16.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-17.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-3.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-65.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-46.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-13.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-8.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.5 percent)
Bitcoin (35.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,224 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.9	25.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	42.9	5.0
– Net Position:	5,641	-7,349	1,708
– Gross Longs:	25,145	10,353	3,753
– Gross Shorts:	19,504	17,702	2,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	79.6	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-14.4	18.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	58.4	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	50.1	9.3
– Net Position:	-65,895	48,089	17,806
– Gross Longs:	152,671	340,837	72,006
– Gross Shorts:	218,566	292,748	54,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	97.7	10.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	16.2	-7.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.2	38.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	47.0	16.2
– Net Position:	21,647	-16,258	-5,389
– Gross Longs:	88,265	71,728	24,964
– Gross Shorts:	66,618	87,986	30,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	54.9	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	15.6	-33.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	31.4	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	33.1	20.7
– Net Position:	5,961	-3,101	-2,860
– Gross Longs:	87,208	57,107	34,688
– Gross Shorts:	81,247	60,208	37,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	27.4	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.0	-18.5	0.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,800 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	71.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	24.6	29.7
– Net Position:	-21,800	40,379	-18,579
– Gross Longs:	16,872	61,407	6,853
– Gross Shorts:	38,672	21,028	25,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	65.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	1.4	-38.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -182,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.9	88.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	48.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-182,055	195,457	-13,402
– Gross Longs:	19,170	430,972	28,710
– Gross Shorts:	201,225	235,515	42,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	96.6	2.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	6.0	-20.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -61,531 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -70,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	64.4	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.7	23.3	18.3
– Net Position:	-61,531	71,099	-9,568
– Gross Longs:	32,929	111,276	21,997
– Gross Shorts:	94,460	40,177	31,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	72.3	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-65.6	61.3	-27.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	84.1	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	26.9	8.4
– Net Position:	-42,507	46,323	-3,816
– Gross Longs:	9,370	68,108	2,967
– Gross Shorts:	51,877	21,785	6,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	4.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-46.8	47.8	-30.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	50.3	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	60.1	4.7
– Net Position:	14,614	-12,332	-2,282
– Gross Longs:	55,529	63,901	3,680
– Gross Shorts:	40,915	76,233	5,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	67.9	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	7.5	10.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	55.6	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.8	26.9	4.5
– Net Position:	-20,937	22,320	-1,383
– Gross Longs:	31,931	43,312	2,103
– Gross Shorts:	52,868	20,992	3,486
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	70.1	13.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.4	-3.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.8	4.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.4	5.2	3.1
– Net Position:	171	-483	312
– Gross Longs:	33,073	1,720	1,639
– Gross Shorts:	32,902	2,203	1,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	51.4	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.5	-35.2	-16.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Dec

Speculator Extremes: New Zealand Dollar, Euro & CAD lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 17th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 17.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 93,410 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,888 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 98.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 34.5 this week. The speculator position registered 110,778 net contracts this week with a weekly gain by 8,077 contracts in speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 31.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 36,082 net contracts this week with an increase by 509 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 17.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -219,304 net contracts this week with a change of -2,932 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 86.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.8 this week.

The speculator position was 62,147 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 73 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -46.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,507 net contracts this week with a drop by -14,300 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 3.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.8 this week. The speculator position was -65,895 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,678 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level resides at a 6.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -182,055 net contracts this week with a dip of -501 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 9.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.3 this week. The speculator position was -44,844 net contracts this week with a decline by -15,616 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 11.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,762,317 net contracts this week with a rise of 28,113 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (218,551 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (142,799 contracts), the Fed Funds (52,914 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (29,668 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (28,113 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-6,810 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6,403 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-4,349 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2,932 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (91 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (67 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) and 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (38.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (25.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (42.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (43.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (67.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (69.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (90.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (91.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (58.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (54.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.4 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (27 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-11.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-11.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-44.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (8.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (17.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (35.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (26.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-14.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 52,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	68.6	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	66.4	2.2
– Net Position:	-35,557	39,263	-3,706
– Gross Longs:	266,577	1,226,907	35,971
– Gross Shorts:	302,134	1,187,644	39,677
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	49.2	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	10.3	4.9

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -108,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 218,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -327,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	59.3	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	58.3	0.6
– Net Position:	-108,925	117,411	-8,486
– Gross Longs:	1,543,408	6,609,849	56,269
– Gross Shorts:	1,652,333	6,492,438	64,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	45.7	83.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	1.0	-3.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -39,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 29,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	62.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	59.6	0.0
– Net Position:	-39,662	40,010	-348
– Gross Longs:	392,112	954,943	141
– Gross Shorts:	431,774	914,933	489
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	41.4	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-26.9	0.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,259,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,254,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	78.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	51.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,259,273	1,129,720	129,553
– Gross Longs:	487,339	3,297,104	248,447
– Gross Shorts:	1,746,612	2,167,384	118,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	84.9	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-15.0	-7.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,762,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,790,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	84.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	57.2	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,762,317	1,670,044	92,273
– Gross Longs:	435,419	5,139,765	395,530
– Gross Shorts:	2,197,736	3,469,721	303,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	87.8	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	3.5	-11.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -732,917 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 142,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -875,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	77.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	62.6	7.8
– Net Position:	-732,917	651,759	81,158
– Gross Longs:	492,529	3,448,078	431,228
– Gross Shorts:	1,225,446	2,796,319	350,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	58.6	82.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-6.8	-6.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -112,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	72.9	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	66.2	12.4
– Net Position:	-112,485	145,015	-32,530
– Gross Longs:	332,600	1,582,159	237,065
– Gross Shorts:	445,085	1,437,144	269,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	34.6	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-19.0	19.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -46,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	65.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	67.6	7.1
– Net Position:	-46,303	-34,197	80,500
– Gross Longs:	407,771	1,224,408	213,331
– Gross Shorts:	454,074	1,258,605	132,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	17.4	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	0.8	4.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -219,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -216,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	79.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	68.8	9.1
– Net Position:	-219,304	198,644	20,660
– Gross Longs:	144,952	1,432,440	184,033
– Gross Shorts:	364,256	1,233,796	163,373
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	4.6	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-28.9	28.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decidedly lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-13,545 contracts), Copper (-5,019 contracts), Palladium (-1,282 contracts), Platinum (-1,085 contracts), Silver (-901 contracts) and with Steel (-778 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (83 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (39 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength scores were Platinum (49 percent) and Palladium (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (84.9 percent)
Silver (67.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (68.2 percent)
Copper (38.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.4 percent)
Platinum (48.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.0 percent)
Palladium (48.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)
Steel (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.7 percent)

Gold tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-27 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (2.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.2 percent)
Silver (-16.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-24.3 percent)
Copper (-16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.9 percent)
Platinum (-36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-49.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.2 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-10.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 262,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 275,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	13.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	74.2	5.4
– Net Position:	262,041	-285,233	23,192
– Gross Longs:	302,978	61,012	48,388
– Gross Shorts:	40,937	346,245	25,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	19.6	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-0.8	-16.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	23.9	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	63.1	8.3
– Net Position:	40,264	-57,510	17,246
– Gross Longs:	68,183	35,135	29,396
– Gross Shorts:	27,919	92,645	12,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	30.8	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	18.5	-17.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	35.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	41.5	5.6
– Net Position:	5,940	-11,750	5,810
– Gross Longs:	81,540	74,275	17,360
– Gross Shorts:	75,600	86,025	11,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	60.3	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	19.4	-28.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	19.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	41.1	4.3
– Net Position:	13,744	-21,341	7,597
– Gross Longs:	56,233	18,959	11,841
– Gross Shorts:	42,489	40,300	4,244
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	45.1	81.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.2	32.4	13.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	48.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.9	10.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-7,311	6,358	953
– Gross Longs:	5,633	8,182	2,356
– Gross Shorts:	12,944	1,824	1,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	49.3	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.7	26.9	-5.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	67.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	56.2	0.7
– Net Position:	-3,558	3,550	8
– Gross Longs:	7,338	20,911	226
– Gross Shorts:	10,896	17,361	218
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	18.1	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	12.4	-13.1

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