COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to lowest level since 2019

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (23,418 contracts) with the British Pound (7,799 contracts), the Swiss Franc (6,102 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,744 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,021 contracts) and Bitcoin (875 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,208 contracts), the EuroFX (-18,084 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-12,916 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,899 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-170 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to lowest level since 2019

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent large drop in the speculator’s positioning for the New Zealand ‘Kiwi’ Dollar.

Large speculative New Zealand Dollar (NZD) currency positions fell this week by almost -5,000 net contracts and the NZD net positions have now declined in nine out of the past ten weeks. This ten-week drop totals -30,177 contracts and has taken the NZD from a positive net position of +1,970 contracts on October 1st to this week’s net position of +28,207 contracts.

This shortfall in positions has knocked the NZD down to the most bearish level in the past two hundred and sixty-three weeks, dating back to November 26th of 2019. Our strength indicator, which measures a market’s speculator level compared to it’s past three years, shows the NZD at a 0 percent strength score or at a bottom for the past three year’s range.

Nudging the NZD speculator sentiment lower has been recent cuts in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and economic weakness. The RBNZ dropped its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in November to 4.25 percent as the bank stated, “Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased.” The RBNZ also reduced the interest rate by 50 basis points in October and by 25 basis points in August. This lowering of interest rates can hurt a currency because lower interest rates can spur traders to sell the currency to find other countries (currencies) with higher interest rates. The higher interest rate will provide a higher interest return and, in turn, if enough traders join in, can help spur the higher interest currency higher as well on a capital gains basis.

The NZD exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the decline in tandem with the fall in speculator bets over these past three months. The NZDUSD closed at a multi-year low of 0.5762 this week which marked the lowest level since October of 2022. The NZD had been as high as 0.6385 in September but the rate cuts and economic outlook has pushed the Kiwi lower in ten out of the past eleven weekly closes for an approximate decline by 10 percent versus the US Dollar.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (84 percent) and the Australian Dollar (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent), the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (83.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (74.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (17.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (82.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (32.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (36.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (35.6 percent)
Bitcoin (35.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.5 percent)

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-18 percent), Mexican Peso (-14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.2 percent)
EuroFX (-9.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-17.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-24.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-17.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-44.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-39.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-10.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.9 percent)
Bitcoin (25.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	26.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.9	22.2	6.8
– Net Position:	-3,224	1,940	1,284
– Gross Longs:	22,883	10,986	4,052
– Gross Shorts:	26,107	9,046	2,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	6.4	17.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -75,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	62.2	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	54.7	8.7
– Net Position:	-75,573	54,716	20,857
– Gross Longs:	157,375	452,311	84,363
– Gross Shorts:	232,948	397,595	63,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	7.9	4.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	52.3	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	59.3	10.2
– Net Position:	27,125	-21,904	-5,221
– Gross Longs:	102,763	162,912	26,568
– Gross Shorts:	75,638	184,816	31,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	52.7	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	20.8	-27.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	42.9	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	51.8	13.8
– Net Position:	25,752	-24,598	-1,154
– Gross Longs:	97,938	117,775	36,894
– Gross Shorts:	72,186	142,373	38,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	19.4	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-19.4	5.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -34,992 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	81.5	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	33.7	23.9
– Net Position:	-34,992	52,309	-17,317
– Gross Longs:	4,796	89,188	8,877
– Gross Shorts:	39,788	36,879	26,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	84.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	17.3	-43.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -181,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	81.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	33.7	10.9
– Net Position:	-181,554	195,936	-14,382
– Gross Longs:	29,034	333,506	30,191
– Gross Shorts:	210,588	137,570	44,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	96.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	8.9	-20.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.1	46.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	47.1	14.4
– Net Position:	8,485	-735	-7,750
– Gross Longs:	88,751	111,884	26,561
– Gross Shorts:	80,266	112,619	34,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	29.5	28.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	22.1	-47.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	71.2	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	38.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-28,207	31,847	-3,640
– Gross Longs:	19,605	69,879	3,520
– Gross Shorts:	47,812	38,032	7,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	7.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.2	45.4	-28.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	46.7	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	50.5	3.6
– Net Position:	7,928	-6,173	-1,755
– Gross Longs:	61,643	75,013	4,073
– Gross Shorts:	53,715	81,186	5,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	71.0	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.0	9.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.4	48.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.6	23.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-16,393	17,176	-783
– Gross Longs:	32,187	33,982	2,279
– Gross Shorts:	48,580	16,806	3,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	65.3	16.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	12.0	-3.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.9	4.6	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.8	4.0	3.0
– Net Position:	-720	236	484
– Gross Longs:	31,168	1,721	1,627
– Gross Shorts:	31,888	1,485	1,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	69.3	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-25.1	-10.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

15 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs & Nasdaq lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 10th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing once again this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 99.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 23.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 91,522 net contracts this week with a small dip of -237 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nasdaq speculator level is now at a 94.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 47.2 this week. The speculator position registered 35,573 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 5,882 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level resides at a 91.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 35.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -216,372 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,020 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 89.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 102,701 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,657 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 86.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week.

The speculator position was 62,074 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,653 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -32,954 net contracts this week with a drop of -10,675 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -44.2 this week. The speculator position was -28,207 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -4,899 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Euro speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -75,573 net contracts this week with a decrease by -18,084 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week. The speculator position was -3,224 net contracts this week with a dip of -170 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

Finally, the Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 6.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was -181,554 net contracts this week with a decrease of -22,208 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

15 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (15,850 contracts) with Copper (493 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-5,657 contracts), Silver (-2,095 contracts), Palladium (-386 contracts) and with Steel (-784 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (86 percent) and Gold (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is the only market that is below the midpoint line (50 percent) of the past three years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (84.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (78.9 percent)
Silver (68.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.8 percent)
Copper (43.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.0 percent)
Platinum (51.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.4 percent)
Palladium (57.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.6 percent)
Steel (85.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.7 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-1 percent) is leading the past six weeks trends for metals by falling the least in that time period. All of the metals markets are seeing negative 6-week trends with Platinum (-49 percent) recording the largest downside trend score currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.8 percent)
Silver (-24.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-29.2 percent)
Copper (-11.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.5 percent)
Platinum (-49.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-34.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.1 percent)
Steel (-10.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 275,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.1	13.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	75.1	5.2
– Net Position:	275,586	-296,871	21,285
– Gross Longs:	324,332	66,025	46,448
– Gross Shorts:	48,746	362,896	25,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.9	15.4	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	2.4	-13.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	24.1	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	63.7	7.9
– Net Position:	41,165	-59,843	18,678
– Gross Longs:	72,515	36,376	30,557
– Gross Shorts:	31,350	96,219	11,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	28.2	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	24.7	-15.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	34.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	43.1	5.2
– Net Position:	10,959	-16,889	5,930
– Gross Longs:	84,585	72,711	16,766
– Gross Shorts:	73,626	89,600	10,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	55.9	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	15.0	-27.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	20.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.2	44.6	3.8
– Net Position:	14,829	-23,288	8,459
– Gross Longs:	54,105	20,299	12,146
– Gross Shorts:	39,276	43,587	3,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.0	40.7	95.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.0	40.7	39.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	49.8	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	17.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-6,029	5,105	924
– Gross Longs:	5,205	7,770	2,194
– Gross Shorts:	11,234	2,665	1,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	40.4	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	24.7	5.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	66.8	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	57.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-2,780	2,776	4
– Gross Longs:	7,354	19,961	250
– Gross Shorts:	10,134	17,185	246
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.7	15.2	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	10.6	-15.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

15 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3M & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3M & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (209,405 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (70,670 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (57,215 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (47,335 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (19,282 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (16,185 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-59,567 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-52,025 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2,020 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (92 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (70 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (38.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (49.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (25.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (43.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (29.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (63.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (91.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (92.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (51.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (39.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (32.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (51 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-45 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-14 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-6 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-44.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-30.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-5.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-0.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-25.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (48.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (51.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (32.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-14.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-25.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -88,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -59,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	71.9	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	65.9	2.8
– Net Position:	-88,471	95,143	-6,672
– Gross Longs:	170,536	1,131,257	36,896
– Gross Shorts:	259,007	1,036,114	43,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	59.3	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.7	41.0	30.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -327,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 209,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -536,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	59.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	56.2	0.4
– Net Position:	-327,476	337,197	-9,721
– Gross Longs:	1,466,029	6,611,792	33,875
– Gross Shorts:	1,793,505	6,274,595	43,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	57.0	82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	14.1	1.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 47,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	67.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	62.1	0.0
– Net Position:	-69,330	69,643	-313
– Gross Longs:	238,301	858,711	131
– Gross Shorts:	307,631	789,068	444
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	48.7	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	51.4	-51.3	2.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,254,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -52,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,202,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	78.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	52.2	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,254,924	1,113,690	141,234
– Gross Longs:	481,986	3,348,411	260,916
– Gross Shorts:	1,736,910	2,234,721	119,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	83.8	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.3	-15.0	-6.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,790,430 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 70,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,861,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	85.1	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	57.3	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,790,430	1,682,114	108,316
– Gross Longs:	419,439	5,145,585	408,423
– Gross Shorts:	2,209,869	3,463,471	300,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	88.6	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	12.0	-14.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -875,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -891,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	79.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	60.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-875,716	815,384	60,332
– Gross Longs:	438,538	3,516,621	416,813
– Gross Shorts:	1,314,254	2,701,237	356,481
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.3	78.6	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	3.1	-11.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -106,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 57,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -163,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	73.3	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	66.0	12.6
– Net Position:	-106,082	161,350	-55,268
– Gross Longs:	346,401	1,620,031	223,359
– Gross Shorts:	452,483	1,458,681	278,627
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	39.8	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-7.0	15.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,493 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	65.6	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	67.3	7.1
– Net Position:	-39,493	-31,489	70,982
– Gross Longs:	410,909	1,221,804	203,350
– Gross Shorts:	450,402	1,253,293	132,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	18.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	0.5	-11.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -216,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	80.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	69.4	8.7
– Net Position:	-216,372	191,705	24,667
– Gross Longs:	144,422	1,433,739	180,858
– Gross Shorts:	360,794	1,242,034	156,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.7	1.5	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.8	-51.7	31.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

15 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (87,195 contracts) with Soybean Oil (16,035 contracts), Soybeans (12,268 contracts), Sugar (9,012 contracts) Live Cattle (5,657 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,742 contracts) and Wheat (2,247 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-5,938 contracts), Coffee (-4,653 contracts), Lean Hogs (-237 contracts) and with Cocoa (-188 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (86 percent), Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Corn (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (15 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybeans (26 percent) and the Wheat (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (62.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (51.3 percent)
Sugar (35.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (32.6 percent)
Coffee (86.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (90.9 percent)
Soybeans (26.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (23.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (64.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (56.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (13.5 percent)
Live Cattle (89.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (17.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.9 percent)
Cocoa (47.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.9 percent)
Wheat (30.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (28.3 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (24 percent) and Live Cattle (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (18 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Soybean Oil (-12 percent) and Cotton (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (18.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.2 percent)
Sugar (5.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-1.8 percent)
Coffee (-3.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.4 percent)
Soybeans (1.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-23.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-23.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-42.0 percent)
Live Cattle (22.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (23.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (33.1 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.2 percent)
Cocoa (-0.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-28.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-35.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 224,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 137,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	44.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	56.3	10.2
– Net Position:	224,423	-183,482	-40,941
– Gross Longs:	465,806	707,447	121,307
– Gross Shorts:	241,383	890,929	162,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	38.1	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.0	-19.5	7.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	50.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	63.0	5.8
– Net Position:	97,327	-115,926	18,599
– Gross Longs:	237,266	469,791	72,554
– Gross Shorts:	139,939	585,717	53,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.7	63.1	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	0.4	-20.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,653 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	34.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	66.7	3.1
– Net Position:	62,074	-65,126	3,052
– Gross Longs:	76,217	71,110	9,346
– Gross Shorts:	14,143	136,236	6,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.4	13.3	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	2.8	5.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	55.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	44.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-86,216	102,553	-16,337
– Gross Longs:	160,946	508,774	50,637
– Gross Shorts:	247,162	406,221	66,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.1	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.1	-3.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 42,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	52.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	61.8	4.5
– Net Position:	42,863	-50,751	7,888
– Gross Longs:	144,344	298,265	33,370
– Gross Shorts:	101,481	349,016	25,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	37.9	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	9.4	9.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -29,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	44.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	44.0	5.2
– Net Position:	-29,228	5,021	24,207
– Gross Longs:	135,659	275,022	55,954
– Gross Shorts:	164,887	270,001	31,747
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	79.7	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	23.4	-12.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 102,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	30.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	53.2	14.1
– Net Position:	102,701	-77,914	-24,787
– Gross Longs:	167,119	102,578	23,110
– Gross Shorts:	64,418	180,492	47,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.7	27.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-24.5	-2.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	29.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	51.3	9.0
– Net Position:	91,522	-79,905	-11,617
– Gross Longs:	179,204	105,332	20,747
– Gross Shorts:	87,682	185,237	32,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.8	2.6	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-21.9	-24.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -19,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	47.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	38.7	5.7
– Net Position:	-19,528	19,378	150
– Gross Longs:	59,508	108,927	13,293
– Gross Shorts:	79,036	89,549	13,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	81.8	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	4.0	7.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	36.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	70.1	4.5
– Net Position:	36,977	-43,622	6,645
– Gross Longs:	54,366	46,915	12,396
– Gross Shorts:	17,389	90,537	5,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	49.3	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	1.0	-4.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -59,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	38.8	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	23.7	7.9
– Net Position:	-59,290	64,282	-4,992
– Gross Longs:	126,404	165,145	28,783
– Gross Shorts:	185,694	100,863	33,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	72.4	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	26.2	20.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

15 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (25,277 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,237 contracts), the Russell-Mini (9,417 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (5,882 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (571 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,968 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-139 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (94 percent) and the Russell-Mini (81 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (55.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (66.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (52.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (48.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (77.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (94.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (85.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (80.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (74.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (58.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (59.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (49.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.3 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (47 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-22 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-39.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-21.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-19.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (2.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (47.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (41.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-9.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-20.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-21.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -45,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	45.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	33.0	8.7
– Net Position:	-45,170	45,739	-569
– Gross Longs:	68,746	162,472	30,353
– Gross Shorts:	113,916	116,733	30,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	46.9	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.5	41.1	-19.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -83,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 25,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	71.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	74.1	6.4
– Net Position:	-83,333	-66,801	150,134
– Gross Longs:	288,876	1,654,888	299,379
– Gross Shorts:	372,209	1,721,689	149,245
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	30.7	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	15.3	14.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	51.3	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	69.4	13.4
– Net Position:	11,071	-16,301	5,230
– Gross Longs:	23,614	45,997	17,256
– Gross Shorts:	12,543	62,298	12,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	14.6	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-4.9	12.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	52.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	69.2	9.7
– Net Position:	35,573	-49,864	14,291
– Gross Longs:	91,735	152,035	42,649
– Gross Shorts:	56,162	201,899	28,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.3	0.0	81.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.2	-36.1	6.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	74.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	79.6	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,157	-24,300	26,457
– Gross Longs:	74,100	390,127	44,304
– Gross Shorts:	76,257	414,427	17,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	9.0	99.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	1.7	31.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	1.5	58.1	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	45.9	14.3
– Net Position:	-2,603	1,844	759
– Gross Longs:	224	8,786	2,919
– Gross Shorts:	2,827	6,942	2,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.0	39.3	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	11.3	17.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.1	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	85.3	1.4
– Net Position:	-17,963	12,546	5,417
– Gross Longs:	40,742	397,687	11,784
– Gross Shorts:	58,705	385,141	6,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.4	49.1	44.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-20.1	11.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

08 Dec

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets into small bullish level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (24,967 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,073 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (726 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-10,375 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-9,847 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-5,344 contracts), the British Pound (-2,308 contracts), the EuroFX (-1,480 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,418 contracts), Bitcoin (-399 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-255 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets into small bullish level

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent bullish moves in the Japanese yen speculator position.

The Japanese yen speculator positions rose this week by almost +25,000 contracts following a similar gain by +24,235 contracts last week and by +18,034 contracts two weeks ago. Yen positions have now increased by a total of +67,236 contracts over these past three weeks which has totally erased the bearish net positioning of the prior five weeks. The positive sentiment by the speculators has pushed the overall net position into a small bullish level of +2,334 contracts which is the first bullish standing since October 22nd.

Over the year, the yen speculator positions have been highly bearish with a weekly average of -75,251 contracts for 2024 so far. The yen positioning fell as low as -184,223 contracts on July 2nd but speculators bearish bets have eased off in the second half of the year and specs did have an eleven-week streak of bullish positions from August to October. The speculator strength score (the percent of current speculator’s level compared to the past 3-years) is a strong 75 percent at the moment.

The yen exchange rate has been on an extremely weak trajectory throughout 2024 as well with the Japanese currency falling to multi-decade lows multiple times. Currently, the yen is still within 8 percent of the latest low with the USDJPY currency pair trading around 150.00.

The yen seems to be at a crossroads at the moment with a lot of money on the sidelines that could take this small bullish position in either direction. The overall direction of the US Dollar will be a major factor in whether this might be near the yen bottom or just another step in a weaker Japanese currency.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (91 percent) and the Japanese Yen (75 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (2 percent), Bitcoin (16 percent), the Canadian Dollar (17 percent) and the Swiss Franc (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (74.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (64.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (18.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (91.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (98.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (30.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (44.9 percent)
Bitcoin (16.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)

Bitcoin tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-25 percent), Swiss Franc (-17 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-8.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.5 percent)
EuroFX (-11.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-29.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-28.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-17.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-27.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-4.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-41.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-43.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-10.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-13.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.3 percent)
Bitcoin (1.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.4	25.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.5	20.7	7.3
– Net Position:	-3,054	1,801	1,253
– Gross Longs:	21,903	9,563	4,009
– Gross Shorts:	24,957	7,762	2,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.6	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	4.8	16.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,009 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	59.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	54.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-57,489	34,476	23,013
– Gross Longs:	167,693	401,120	77,569
– Gross Shorts:	225,182	366,644	54,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	12.6	-12.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	46.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.5	13.8
– Net Position:	19,326	-8,995	-10,331
– Gross Longs:	98,056	114,068	23,219
– Gross Shorts:	78,730	123,063	33,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	57.8	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	28.7	-35.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	43.3	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	43.3	16.2
– Net Position:	2,334	-164	-2,170
– Gross Longs:	93,622	111,171	39,431
– Gross Shorts:	91,288	111,335	41,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	28.4	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	3.8	-0.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	83.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	20.4	25.6
– Net Position:	-41,094	53,351	-12,257
– Gross Longs:	4,874	70,719	9,565
– Gross Shorts:	45,968	17,368	21,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	86.4	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	27.6	-39.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -159,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	80.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	29.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-159,346	165,505	-6,159
– Gross Longs:	21,696	261,571	31,609
– Gross Shorts:	181,042	96,066	37,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	84.3	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.9	5.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	37.4	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	49.1	13.0
– Net Position:	21,401	-22,286	885
– Gross Longs:	86,699	71,206	25,601
– Gross Shorts:	65,298	93,492	24,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.5	16.7	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	11.5	-33.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	66.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	34.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-23,308	25,730	-2,422
– Gross Longs:	21,213	53,338	3,446
– Gross Shorts:	44,521	27,608	5,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	96.3	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.7	45.1	-41.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	52.5	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	53.8	4.2
– Net Position:	4,184	-1,838	-2,346
– Gross Longs:	55,114	77,150	3,777
– Gross Shorts:	50,930	78,988	6,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.9	73.2	9.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.8	3.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	53.5	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.4	22.7	5.7
– Net Position:	-17,414	18,647	-1,233
– Gross Longs:	25,853	32,419	2,213
– Gross Shorts:	43,267	13,772	3,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	66.7	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	14.6	-5.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.7	4.4	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.0	1.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,595	1,040	555
– Gross Longs:	30,625	1,615	1,600
– Gross Shorts:	32,220	575	1,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	2.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	89.4	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.8	1.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, T-Bonds, US Dollar & Euro lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 3rd.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 33.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 91,759 net contracts this week with a rise by 10,520 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is now at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 48.9 this week. The speculator position registered -214,352 net contracts this week with a weekly decrease by -19,666 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Australian Dollar speculator level resides at a 91.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -4.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 21,401 net contracts this week with a drop by -10,375 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 90.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 0.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 66,727 net contracts this week with a decrease of -3,886 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.5 this week.

The speculator position was -1,996 net contracts this week with a small rise by 107 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -3,054 net contracts this week with a small decline of -255 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.8 this week. The speculator position was -57,489 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,480 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 0.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -22,279 net contracts this week with a small gain of 179 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 1.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -41.7 this week. The speculator position was -23,308 net contracts this week with an increase of 1,073 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,861,100 net contracts this week with a drop by -95,529 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News

07 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as all six of the metals markets we cover had slightly higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (9,398 contracts) with Platinum (1,826 contracts), Copper (541 contracts), Silver (477 contracts), Steel (107 contracts) and Palladium (9 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) and Gold (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (78.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.3 percent)
Silver (70.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.2 percent)
Copper (43.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (42.5 percent)
Platinum (64.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.1 percent)
Palladium (60.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.6 percent)
Steel (88.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.3 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that there are no positive movers currently in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week with Copper (-20 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-13.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.7 percent)
Silver (-29.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.2 percent)
Copper (-20.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.8 percent)
Platinum (-34.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.0 percent)
Palladium (-4.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.7 percent)
Steel (-3.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 259,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 250,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	13.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	75.6	4.7
– Net Position:	259,736	-286,275	26,539
– Gross Longs:	307,611	63,251	48,337
– Gross Shorts:	47,875	349,526	21,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	19.2	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.8	-7.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.9	24.4	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	70.6	8.0
– Net Position:	43,260	-62,019	18,759
– Gross Longs:	64,285	32,688	29,478
– Gross Shorts:	21,025	94,707	10,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	25.8	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	25.8	-1.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,466 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	35.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	42.5	5.7
– Net Position:	10,466	-14,783	4,317
– Gross Longs:	86,478	75,871	16,412
– Gross Shorts:	76,012	90,654	12,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	57.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.5	25.1	-42.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	18.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	48.6	3.8
– Net Position:	20,486	-28,718	8,232
– Gross Longs:	55,415	17,292	11,849
– Gross Shorts:	34,929	46,010	3,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	28.5	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.0	26.9	37.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	49.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.6	18.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-5,643	4,841	802
– Gross Longs:	5,402	7,728	2,015
– Gross Shorts:	11,045	2,887	1,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	38.5	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	3.2	5.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	66.5	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	59.8	0.6
– Net Position:	-1,996	1,926	70
– Gross Longs:	7,486	19,039	248
– Gross Shorts:	9,482	17,113	178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	12.0	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	3.5	0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

07 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by SOFR 1-Month, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (110,282 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (34,702 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (31,747 contracts) and the Fed Funds (16,165 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-108,271 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-95,529 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-43,833 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-19,666 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-11,361 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (92 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (63 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 10-Year Bonds (24 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (49.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (46.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (29.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (40.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (63.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (67.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (92.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (39.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (12.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (32.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (38.1 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (49 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-25 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-30.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-7.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-4.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-25.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (4.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (48.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (48.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (32.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-2.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-25.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-28.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 16,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	67.0	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	65.2	2.7
– Net Position:	-28,904	27,431	1,473
– Gross Longs:	215,615	1,023,438	43,078
– Gross Shorts:	244,519	996,007	41,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	47.0	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.5	25.8	42.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -536,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -108,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -428,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	60.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	55.5	0.4
– Net Position:	-536,881	552,005	-15,124
– Gross Longs:	1,269,597	6,701,108	29,815
– Gross Shorts:	1,806,478	6,149,103	44,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	68.1	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.0	26.1	-10.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -116,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 110,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -226,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	67.5	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	57.9	0.0
– Net Position:	-116,665	116,518	147
– Gross Longs:	234,263	819,843	660
– Gross Shorts:	350,928	703,325	513
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	60.2	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.7	-32.9	11.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,202,899 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,234,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	77.5	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	52.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,202,899	1,061,813	141,086
– Gross Longs:	506,365	3,324,264	259,271
– Gross Shorts:	1,709,264	2,262,451	118,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	79.9	80.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-10.4	-11.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,861,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -95,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,765,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	85.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	56.5	4.8
– Net Position:	-1,861,100	1,741,156	119,944
– Gross Longs:	402,072	5,148,595	409,306
– Gross Shorts:	2,263,172	3,407,439	289,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	92.3	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	18.0	-11.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -891,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -926,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	79.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	60.7	8.4
– Net Position:	-891,901	842,621	49,280
– Gross Longs:	434,911	3,572,758	425,946
– Gross Shorts:	1,326,812	2,730,137	376,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	81.9	75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	12.3	-12.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -163,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	74.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	64.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-163,297	216,058	-52,761
– Gross Longs:	323,901	1,609,439	224,218
– Gross Shorts:	487,198	1,393,381	276,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	57.3	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.4	24.7	13.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -58,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	65.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	66.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-58,775	-11,133	69,908
– Gross Longs:	408,017	1,217,310	206,464
– Gross Shorts:	466,792	1,228,443	136,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0	25.1	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	2.5	-15.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -214,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -194,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	79.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	68.1	9.4
– Net Position:	-214,352	200,509	13,843
– Gross Longs:	150,423	1,410,435	181,097
– Gross Shorts:	364,775	1,209,926	167,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	5.5	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.9	-62.2	16.5

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