COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Brazilian Real Speculator bets jump, Yen bets hit new record high & Euro bets gain

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (40,789 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (37,671 contracts), the EuroFX (15,319 contracts), the British Pound (14,111 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,685 contracts) and Bitcoin (410 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-9,274 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-5,864 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,653 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,056 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-994 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

FX Roundup: Brazilian Real bets jump, Japanese Yen bets hit new record high, Euro bets rise

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the sharp gains in some of the major currencies versus the US Dollar.

Brazilian Real: The Brazilian currency positioning saw a huge jump by over +40,000 net contracts this week. The net speculator position has now risen in four out of the past five weeks and is in bullish territory after a 39-week streak in bearish territory from May 2024 until January 28th 2025.

The BRL exchange rate remains near the lowest levels on record versus the US Dollar that were reached in December but there has been recent momentum as the BRL has gained in eight out of the past ten weeks.

Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen speculator positions rose sharply again this week with a second consecutive weekly gain by more than +35,000 contracts. Overall, the yen speculator bets have surged higher for seven straight weeks and by a total of +163,062 contracts in that time-frame. This has pushed the current net position to a new all-time record high level of +133,651 contracts this week and breaking last week’s record.

The JPY exchange rate continues to see positive movement as the futures price climbs and the USDJPY broke down through the 150 barrier on its way towards 145.00. The USDJPY is currently trading at 147.55 and has JPY improvement in six out the past eight weeks.

Euro: The Euro speculator position has steadily improved over the past few months and has increased for three straight weeks. The Euro bets have gained by a total of +59,458 contracts over the past nine weeks and brings the current net position to a total of -10,106 contracts. This is the lowest bearish position since November and contracts could go positive in the upcoming week as the Euro has been back in favor due to dollar weakness and policy announcements.

The EUR exchange rate had a huge week with a jump by almost 5 percent. The EURUSD was trading at 1.0200 in the middle of January and with the recent surges, the EUR closed out the week over the 1.0830 exchange level.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent), the Brazilian Real (93 percent) and Bitcoin (65 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (44 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (24 percent), the Swiss Franc (24 percent) and the EuroFX (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (37.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (39.3 percent)
EuroFX (24.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (19.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (38.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (88.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (38.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (43.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (93.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.5 percent)
Bitcoin (64.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (55.7 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (74 percent) and the Japanese Yen (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (20 percent), the Australian Dollar (16 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-0.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.2 percent)
EuroFX (19.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (13.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (46.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (39.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (3.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (16.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-5.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-1.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (10.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (73.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (35.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-2.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-24.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.1	17.1	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	55.6	6.6
– Net Position:	14,738	-15,048	310
– Gross Longs:	27,785	6,675	2,886
– Gross Shorts:	13,047	21,723	2,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.2	64.4	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	2.9	-15.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	55.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	57.9	7.9
– Net Position:	-10,106	-19,259	29,365
– Gross Longs:	185,223	376,930	83,321
– Gross Shorts:	195,329	396,189	53,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	74.7	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-21.7	24.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,111 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,463 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	40.6	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	47.4	16.2
– Net Position:	18,574	-13,710	-4,864
– Gross Longs:	81,866	81,410	27,706
– Gross Shorts:	63,292	95,120	32,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	55.9	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-16.9	32.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 133,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 37,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	28.8	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	70.0	9.3
– Net Position:	133,651	-145,919	12,268
– Gross Longs:	183,955	102,081	45,054
– Gross Shorts:	50,304	248,000	32,786
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.7	-45.5	15.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	81.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	31.5	22.9
– Net Position:	-37,775	48,071	-10,296
– Gross Longs:	5,572	78,617	11,964
– Gross Shorts:	43,347	30,546	22,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	77.8	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-15.8	23.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -143,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	79.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	33.9	10.5
– Net Position:	-143,770	154,980	-11,210
– Gross Longs:	22,175	270,391	24,406
– Gross Shorts:	165,945	115,411	35,616
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	79.9	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.3	2.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,653 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	55.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	27.0	16.5
– Net Position:	-48,233	57,029	-8,796
– Gross Longs:	55,151	111,644	24,680
– Gross Shorts:	103,384	54,615	33,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	63.9	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-13.6	-0.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -55,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	78.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.0	19.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-55,765	58,610	-2,845
– Gross Longs:	17,843	77,550	3,282
– Gross Shorts:	73,608	18,940	6,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.4	-2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.3	49.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	61.6	3.9
– Net Position:	19,456	-17,305	-2,151
– Gross Longs:	65,679	72,102	3,500
– Gross Shorts:	46,223	89,407	5,651
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	65.3	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-10.1	-7.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 40,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.8	27.2	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	68.6	2.1
– Net Position:	43,167	-43,814	647
– Gross Longs:	73,933	28,866	2,899
– Gross Shorts:	30,766	72,680	2,252
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.3	7.8	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	73.5	-74.4	10.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.7	3.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.6	5.2	4.6
– Net Position:	614	-516	-98
– Gross Longs:	24,469	937	1,186
– Gross Shorts:	23,855	1,453	1,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	50.6	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	12.2	-27.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Japanese Yen, Brent, NZ Dollar & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 4th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as sentiment has shifted significantly for the yen in a quick period of time. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent or a maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength change in score totaled 46.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 133,651 net contracts this week (a new record high) with a huge boost of 37,671 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Brent Oil speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 20.0 this week. The speculator position registered -5,400 net contracts this week with a weekly jump by 23,056 contracts in speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level now resides at a 93.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 73.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 43,167 net contracts this week with a giant gain of 40,789 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is at a 91.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,340 net contracts this week despite a change of -557 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level sits at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.7 this week.

The speculator position was -231,904 net contracts this week with a dip of -4,169 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent or at the minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -55,765 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,056 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.5 this week. The speculator position was -62,137 net contracts this week with a drop of -18,651 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -55,904 net contracts this week with a decrease by -19,792 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 7.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -68.0 this week. The speculator position was 154,841 net contracts this week with a reduction of -16,357 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 9.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,798,361 net contracts this week with a decline by -172,588 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals category this week was Silver with a small gain of 454 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-18,364 contracts), Copper (-6,010 contracts), Platinum (-2,324 contracts), Steel (-557 contracts) and with Palladium (-385 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (92 percent) and Silver (84 percent) led the metals markets this week. Gold (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (41 percent) and Copper (45 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (72.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (83.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.0 percent)
Copper (45.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.0 percent)
Platinum (48.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.2 percent)
Palladium (40.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (43.4 percent)
Steel (91.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.5 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (23 percent) and Silver (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-4 percent) and Copper (-3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-21.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-6.7 percent)
Silver (7.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (8.6 percent)
Copper (-3.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.7 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-3.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.5 percent)
Steel (22.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (28.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 243,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.0	13.4	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	68.8	4.4
– Net Position:	243,261	-271,115	27,854
– Gross Longs:	303,132	65,713	49,602
– Gross Shorts:	59,871	336,828	21,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	24.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	20.0	7.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 53,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	21.2	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	69.8	7.2
– Net Position:	53,316	-70,944	17,628
– Gross Longs:	73,315	30,890	28,190
– Gross Shorts:	19,999	101,834	10,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	15.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-8.8	10.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	32.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	39.5	6.2
– Net Position:	13,012	-16,189	3,177
– Gross Longs:	88,987	70,271	16,778
– Gross Shorts:	75,975	86,460	13,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	56.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	4.8	-11.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.8	20.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	46.6	4.6
– Net Position:	13,852	-20,401	6,549
– Gross Longs:	48,163	16,532	10,229
– Gross Shorts:	34,311	36,933	3,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	47.2	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	0.5	8.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	45.0	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.8	7.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-8,519	7,573	946
– Gross Longs:	7,984	8,966	2,523
– Gross Shorts:	16,503	1,393	1,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	6.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	55.5	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	1.9	10.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	58.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	67.1	0.6
– Net Position:	3,340	-3,500	160
– Gross Longs:	13,014	22,292	380
– Gross Shorts:	9,674	25,792	220
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.9	8.6	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-23.1	9.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

09 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month with a gain of 42,737 contracts also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-233,685 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-172,588 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-114,073 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-58,709 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-21,846 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-21,236 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-12,185 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4,169 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (10 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (21 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (40.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (75.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (83.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (77.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (97.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (60.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (49.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (16.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.8 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (36 percent) and the lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 1-Month (-17 percent), the US Treasury Bond (-15 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (36.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (32.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-14.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-17.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-16.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-8.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -240,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -233,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	69.2	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	56.7	1.4
– Net Position:	-240,075	220,897	19,178
– Gross Longs:	214,528	1,224,314	43,847
– Gross Shorts:	454,603	1,003,417	24,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	82.2	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	4.8	30.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -838,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -114,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -724,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	61.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	53.5	0.4
– Net Position:	-838,944	814,365	24,579
– Gross Longs:	1,367,058	6,463,732	66,088
– Gross Shorts:	2,206,002	5,649,367	41,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	81.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	7.7	9.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 42,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	54.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	50.3	2.0
– Net Position:	-33,587	54,688	-21,101
– Gross Longs:	311,799	699,458	4,676
– Gross Shorts:	345,386	644,770	25,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.2	45.0	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	22.1	-55.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,171,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,149,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	74.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	47.2	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,171,299	1,032,223	139,076
– Gross Longs:	553,273	2,841,528	240,539
– Gross Shorts:	1,724,572	1,809,305	101,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	75.7	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-0.2	-0.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,798,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -172,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,625,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	82.8	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	56.5	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,798,361	1,632,826	165,535
– Gross Longs:	447,699	5,131,809	430,704
– Gross Shorts:	2,246,060	3,498,983	265,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	85.4	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-2.4	8.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -712,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -699,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	75.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	61.4	7.4
– Net Position:	-712,040	653,140	58,900
– Gross Longs:	637,490	3,542,653	408,077
– Gross Shorts:	1,349,530	2,889,513	349,177
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	58.7	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	10.8	12.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -74,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,957 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	73.6	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	68.3	12.3
– Net Position:	-74,193	118,891	-44,698
– Gross Longs:	339,134	1,641,606	228,663
– Gross Shorts:	413,327	1,522,715	273,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	9.1	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.3	-40.4	3.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -58,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	67.5	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	71.7	6.9
– Net Position:	-17,797	-82,656	100,453
– Gross Longs:	341,103	1,303,352	234,473
– Gross Shorts:	358,900	1,386,008	134,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	15.0	87.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	2.3	23.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -231,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -227,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	80.9	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	69.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-231,904	200,977	30,927
– Gross Longs:	143,596	1,425,013	185,058
– Gross Shorts:	375,500	1,224,036	154,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	5.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	-12.6	40.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

09 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all eleven softs markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the softs markets was Corn (-105,723 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-29,827 contracts), Soybeans (-23,733 contracts), Wheat (-22,791 contracts), Lean Hogs (-21,162 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,792 contracts), Cotton (-18,651 contracts), Live Cattle (-11,216 contracts), Sugar (-7,482 contracts), Cocoa (-1,800 contracts) and Coffee (-346 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (83 percent) and Corn (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Lean Hogs (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybean Meal (4 percent), Wheat (10 percent) and Sugar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (76.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (90.0 percent)
Sugar (18.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (21.3 percent)
Coffee (82.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.2 percent)
Soybeans (39.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (44.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.6 percent)
Live Cattle (67.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (78.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (63.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (80.2 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (11.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (29.8 percent)
Wheat (9.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (27.9 percent)

Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-20 percent), Lean Hogs (-18 percent) and Coffee (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-7.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.9 percent)
Sugar (18.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.2 percent)
Coffee (-15.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-12.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-21.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.7 percent)
Cocoa (-20.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-17.8 percent)
Wheat (-9.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 335,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -105,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 441,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	40.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	55.0	10.1
– Net Position:	335,438	-272,829	-62,609
– Gross Longs:	492,878	744,078	124,822
– Gross Shorts:	157,440	1,016,907	187,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	26.3	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	5.5	18.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	51.4	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	54.3	6.5
– Net Position:	26,009	-26,402	393
– Gross Longs:	191,009	464,615	59,086
– Gross Shorts:	165,000	491,017	58,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	83.5	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-16.5	5.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	32.9	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	71.1	4.1
– Net Position:	58,837	-62,034	3,197
– Gross Longs:	73,038	53,470	9,875
– Gross Shorts:	14,201	115,504	6,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.9	17.8	70.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	15.7	-17.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -34,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	58.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	49.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-34,283	67,504	-33,221
– Gross Longs:	161,354	472,116	38,291
– Gross Shorts:	195,637	404,612	71,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	65.2	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.1	0.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	55.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	59.5	4.7
– Net Position:	14,490	-20,749	6,259
– Gross Longs:	112,638	312,712	32,698
– Gross Shorts:	98,148	333,461	26,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.4	52.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	9.4	19.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	52.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	45.6	5.9
– Net Position:	-55,904	39,090	16,814
– Gross Longs:	100,013	292,120	49,575
– Gross Shorts:	155,917	253,030	32,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.5	93.2	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.5	-8.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 90,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,232 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	30.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	49.4	13.1
– Net Position:	90,016	-68,986	-21,030
– Gross Longs:	157,737	106,632	25,730
– Gross Shorts:	67,721	175,618	46,760
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	38.2	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.7	26.5	23.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	34.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	49.3	9.1
– Net Position:	46,665	-42,376	-4,289
– Gross Longs:	104,957	99,331	21,945
– Gross Shorts:	58,292	141,707	26,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	34.5	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	18.0	13.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -62,137 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,486 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	52.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	30.0	5.1
– Net Position:	-62,137	61,640	497
– Gross Longs:	70,011	145,796	14,670
– Gross Shorts:	132,148	84,156	14,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	13.4	-6.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	40.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	62.1	5.4
– Net Position:	17,651	-21,717	4,066
– Gross Longs:	29,410	41,221	9,501
– Gross Shorts:	11,759	62,938	5,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	71.7	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	23.1	-25.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -84,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,051 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	38.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	19.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-84,842	81,058	3,784
– Gross Longs:	116,367	165,082	35,060
– Gross Shorts:	201,209	84,024	31,276
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	85.9	77.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	9.8	-2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

09 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (64,882 contracts) with the VIX (28,878 contracts), the Russell-Mini (16,757 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (2,021 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,011 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,914 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-780 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the S&P500-Mini (84 percent) and the Russell-Mini (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (75 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The VIX (60 percent) the comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 3-year midpoint of 50 percent.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (83.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (72.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (58.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (79.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (78.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (74.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (81.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (75.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (77.9 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (19 percent), the Nikkei 225 (18 percent) and the Russell-Mini (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-11.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-38.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (19.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-3.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (23.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-13.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (17.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -40,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly jump by 28,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	47.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	37.0	8.0
– Net Position:	-40,225	40,231	-6
– Gross Longs:	87,215	184,876	31,279
– Gross Shorts:	127,440	144,645	31,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	42.2	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	12.6	-10.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 64,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	68.0	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	75.7	7.0
– Net Position:	32,103	-167,315	135,212
– Gross Longs:	366,510	1,483,119	287,647
– Gross Shorts:	334,407	1,650,434	152,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	9.9	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-16.0	-0.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	59.3	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	62.6	16.5
– Net Position:	1,110	-2,519	1,409
– Gross Longs:	15,227	44,551	13,813
– Gross Shorts:	14,117	47,070	12,404
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.1	34.6	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	4.4	-10.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 21,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	53.9	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	67.9	9.2
– Net Position:	21,766	-40,222	18,456
– Gross Longs:	82,749	155,447	44,972
– Gross Shorts:	60,983	195,669	26,516
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	10.3	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-3.8	0.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	73.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	74.1	5.2
– Net Position:	-4,574	-3,580	8,154
– Gross Longs:	66,840	326,541	31,232
– Gross Shorts:	71,414	330,121	23,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	21.7	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-3.8	-29.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -661 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	1.9	75.5	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	70.6	20.6
– Net Position:	-661	553	108
– Gross Longs:	215	8,400	2,402
– Gross Shorts:	876	7,847	2,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.5	30.3	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-15.0	1.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	85.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	84.3	1.4
– Net Position:	-11,821	5,592	6,229
– Gross Longs:	49,088	371,895	12,435
– Gross Shorts:	60,909	366,303	6,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	33.0	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.8	-26.8	14.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

02 Mar

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen Bets Up to New Record High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (35,411 contracts) with the EuroFX (25,995 contracts), the Mexican Peso (14,057 contracts), the Australian Dollar (11,143 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (6,737 contracts), the British Pound Sterling (5,042 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,438 contracts) and Bitcoin (571 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-1,546 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,036 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-1,101 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets up to New Record High

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued boost in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Japanese yen speculator positions have continued their remarkable run of bullish bets since January and increased for a sixth consecutive weekly gain. This week’s rise in speculator bets was by over +35,000 contracts and marks the fifth time out of the past six weeks positions have gained by over +10,000 contracts.

Overall, the last six weeks have added a total of +125,391 contracts to the net positioning and has brought the total net position to a new all-time record high of +95,980 contracts. The previous record high was +71,870 contracts that took place in 2016 and the previous high (before 2016) was in March of 2008.

Japanese 10-Year Bond Yields

The yen exchange rate, despite the record high sentiment, has not exactly shared the same upside as of yet. The yen futures dipped this week by approximately -1 percent but had risen in five out of the previous six weeks. The yen exchange versus the US Dollar remains close to the lowest levels since the 1990’s at the 0.0066 futures price level and the USDJPY currency pair still holds above the major level of 150.00.

The Bank of Japan has raised its interest rate this year to the highest level in 17 years with some forecasts expecting the BOJ to increase it at least one more time. The Japanese 10-year bond yield has been rising strongly as well with the recent yield of 1.45 percent marking the highest level since 2009.

The strengthening speculator sentiment could signal a shift in the views toward the Japanese currency and which could take the currency’s fortunes some time to build upon. It could also possibly be a false start in which an unwinding of the speculator bets would once again put downward pressure on the JPY exchange rate into new multi-decade depths. Either way, this development bears watching.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) leads the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (56 percent) and the Brazilian Real (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (1 percent) and the EuroFX (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (21 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (39.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (41.4 percent)
EuroFX (19.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (38.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (87.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (20.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (23.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (43.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (36.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (54.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.0 percent)
Bitcoin (55.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.3 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (45 percent) and the Brazilian Real (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the EuroFX (13 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-2 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.8 percent)
EuroFX (13.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (44.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (32.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-34.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.1	17.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	58.9	7.0
– Net Position:	15,732	-15,861	129
– Gross Longs:	25,906	6,543	2,808
– Gross Shorts:	10,174	22,404	2,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	62.8	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-3.1	-16.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 25,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	55.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	55.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-25,425	-640	26,065
– Gross Longs:	182,699	362,477	78,634
– Gross Shorts:	208,124	363,117	52,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	81.0	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-16.7	31.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	47.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	44.4	17.8
– Net Position:	4,463	6,186	-10,649
– Gross Longs:	74,089	95,277	24,992
– Gross Shorts:	69,626	89,091	35,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	63.8	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-3.5	10.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 95,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 35,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,569 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.2	28.3	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	61.4	10.0
– Net Position:	95,980	-108,945	12,965
– Gross Longs:	171,751	93,060	45,737
– Gross Shorts:	75,771	202,005	32,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.8	-46.1	35.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	84.2	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	32.0	22.2
– Net Position:	-39,460	50,769	-11,309
– Gross Longs:	5,019	81,861	10,235
– Gross Shorts:	44,479	31,092	21,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	82.2	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-9.1	26.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -137,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	81.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.6	37.0	10.2
– Net Position:	-137,906	142,821	-4,915
– Gross Longs:	20,523	261,075	27,768
– Gross Shorts:	158,429	118,254	32,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.9	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-15.9	24.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	56.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	28.4	16.7
– Net Position:	-45,580	52,332	-6,752
– Gross Longs:	50,873	105,108	24,241
– Gross Shorts:	96,453	52,776	30,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	61.1	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-20.8	7.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	79.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	18.9	5.9
– Net Position:	-53,709	55,044	-1,335
– Gross Longs:	13,628	72,094	3,958
– Gross Shorts:	67,337	17,050	5,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	97.7	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	0.5	15.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	49.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	66.8	3.9
– Net Position:	28,730	-26,207	-2,523
– Gross Longs:	70,337	74,354	3,415
– Gross Shorts:	41,607	100,561	5,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	60.7	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-11.5	-1.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	51.1	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	53.7	1.6
– Net Position:	2,378	-3,962	1,584
– Gross Longs:	63,879	77,856	3,952
– Gross Shorts:	61,501	81,818	2,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	45.5	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.4	-37.5	15.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.3	4.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.6	5.5	4.4
– Net Position:	204	-261	57
– Gross Longs:	25,737	1,489	1,480
– Gross Shorts:	25,533	1,750	1,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	56.9	14.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.7	31.4	-9.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Yen, US Bonds, NZ Dollar & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 25th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position continued higher and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 44.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 95,980 net contracts this week with a boost of 35,411 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

US Treasury Bond

The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is now at a 97.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 14.2 this week. The speculator position registered 40,912 net contracts this week with a weekly reduction by -6,869 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 94.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 28.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,897 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,193 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 90.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 441,161 net contracts this week with a decrease by -27,563 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level sits at a 87.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.6 this week.

The speculator position was -227,735 net contracts this week with a rise of 18,507 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 1.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -53,709 net contracts this week with a dip by -1,546 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.1 this week. The speculator position was -43,486 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,418 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 12.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,112 net contracts this week with a drop by -14,516 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 14.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -60.5 this week. The speculator position was 171,198 net contracts this week with a reduction by -26,396 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 19.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 8.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,625,773 net contracts this week with a gain of 111,760 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Positions led by Copper & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,475 contracts) with Steel (4,618 contracts) also coming in with a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-7,361 contracts), Gold (-7,049 contracts), Palladium (-2,503 contracts) and with Silver (-1,592 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (90 percent) and Silver (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (80 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (42 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (82.3 percent)
Silver (83.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (85.0 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (54.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (71.6 percent)
Palladium (42.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.7 percent)
Steel (89.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.3 percent)

Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (25 percent) and Copper (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.2 percent)
Silver (8.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.1 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (1.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (13.5 percent)
Palladium (1.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.5 percent)
Steel (25.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 268,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.9	14.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	70.3	4.4
– Net Position:	261,625	-288,100	26,475
– Gross Longs:	316,948	71,796	48,803
– Gross Shorts:	55,323	359,896	22,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	18.6	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.2	12.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 52,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.9	23.3	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	66.2	7.8
– Net Position:	52,862	-70,188	17,326
– Gross Longs:	78,469	38,149	30,082
– Gross Shorts:	25,607	108,337	12,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	16.8	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-11.6	18.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	41.0	5.7
– Net Position:	20,896	-24,842	3,946
– Gross Longs:	104,032	75,169	17,858
– Gross Shorts:	83,136	100,011	13,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	49.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.3	-7.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	18.8	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	46.7	4.3
– Net Position:	16,176	-23,660	7,484
– Gross Longs:	52,850	15,967	11,117
– Gross Shorts:	36,674	39,627	3,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	39.9	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-7.4	42.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	44.9	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.6	9.8	6.7
– Net Position:	-8,134	6,620	1,514
– Gross Longs:	6,692	8,471	2,779
– Gross Shorts:	14,826	1,851	1,265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	4.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	51.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-6.3	31.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	58.7	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	0.5
– Net Position:	2,855	-3,034	179
– Gross Longs:	9,630	18,379	348
– Gross Shorts:	6,775	21,413	169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.7	10.7	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-26.2	19.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

01 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year, Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year, Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (140,066 contracts), the Fed Funds (137,915 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (111,760 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (38,476 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (16,557 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (9,672 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,675 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was the SOFR 1-Month (-127,401 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-6,869 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (98 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (83 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (19.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (23 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (23 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (53.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (41.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (83.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (68.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (97.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (82.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (49.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (81.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.0 percent)

Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (33 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (4.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-6.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (32.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-16.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (19.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-15.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 137,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	59.9	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	60.3	1.5
– Net Position:	-6,390	-8,353	14,743
– Gross Longs:	420,888	1,254,622	47,031
– Gross Shorts:	427,278	1,262,975	32,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.4	40.5	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.3	-36.2	25.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -724,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 16,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -741,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	60.8	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	54.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-724,871	701,660	23,211
– Gross Longs:	1,470,019	6,375,832	29,317
– Gross Shorts:	2,194,890	5,674,172	6,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.8	75.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.7	10.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -76,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -127,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	56.2	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	50.9	0.8
– Net Position:	-76,324	85,618	-9,294
– Gross Longs:	416,124	908,842	3,211
– Gross Shorts:	492,448	823,224	12,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	52.6	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	19.1	-24.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,149,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 140,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	72.4	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	48.6	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,149,453	1,006,450	143,003
– Gross Longs:	521,528	3,063,965	270,344
– Gross Shorts:	1,670,981	2,057,515	127,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.0	73.6	81.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-11.1	9.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,625,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 111,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,737,533 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	79.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	57.8	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,625,773	1,452,453	173,320
– Gross Longs:	370,975	5,315,137	474,030
– Gross Shorts:	1,996,748	3,862,684	300,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	74.0	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-13.8	12.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -699,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -709,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	72.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	60.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-699,855	646,801	53,054
– Gross Longs:	677,868	3,780,605	429,465
– Gross Shorts:	1,377,723	3,133,804	376,411
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	58.0	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	16.9	-1.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -52,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 38,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	70.0	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	66.1	11.9
– Net Position:	-52,957	96,118	-43,161
– Gross Longs:	346,258	1,719,027	248,084
– Gross Shorts:	399,215	1,622,909	291,245
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	0.1	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-32.2	-4.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	62.3	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	68.4	6.3
– Net Position:	40,912	-134,212	93,300
– Gross Longs:	415,998	1,373,857	233,255
– Gross Shorts:	375,086	1,508,069	139,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	0.0	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-22.5	25.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -239,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -243,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	68.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-239,941	214,843	25,098
– Gross Longs:	152,029	1,450,800	179,900
– Gross Shorts:	391,970	1,235,957	154,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	11.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-14.0	43.9

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