Archive for Blog Posts

Week 35: FX Speculators push Canadian Dollar, British Pound & Yen bets higher for multiple weeks

COT | Data | Leaders | What is COT? | Excel | COT Dashboard

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes. Data updated through September 3rd.


Currency Speculators push Canadian Dollar, British Pound & Yen bets higher for multiple weeks

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as ten out of the eleven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (41,458 contracts) with the British Pound (18,147 contracts), the Japanese Yen (15,248 contracts), the Australian Dollar (11,295 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (8,078 contracts), the EuroFX (7,180 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,730 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,152 contracts), the US Dollar Index (516 contracts) and with Bitcoin (274 contracts) also having a positive week.

The only currency seeing a decline in speculator bets was the Mexican Peso with a small reduction by -241 contracts on the week. See full article…


Weekly Market Price Changes

VIX, Wheat & Natural Gas lead weekly price gains

WTI Crude Oil, Gasoline & Brent Oil lead the price declines

See Weekly Price Changes for major markets and their performance.


COT Speculator Extremes

Speculator Extremes: Ultra T-Bonds, Yen, 5-Year & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. See full article…


COT Bonds

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators raised their Fed Funds and SOFR 3-Months bets this week

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (95,931 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (80,807 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (46,648 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (29,496 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24,032 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-88,390 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-62,403 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-62,439 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-18,810 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. See full article…


COT Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel (1,160 contracts) with Palladium (227 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-14,345 contracts), Gold (-6,887 contracts), Silver (-6,127 contracts) and with Copper (-4,184 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week. See full article…


COT Soft Commodities

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (58,051 contracts) with Sugar (24,887 contracts), Soybeans (22,241 contracts), Soybean Oil (21,488 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,966 contracts), Wheat (4,939 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,043 contracts) and Cocoa (1,738 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-3,440 contracts), Cotton (-1,079 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,986 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. See full article…


COT Stock Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell Minis

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher speculator net contract positions.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (33,089 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (15,541 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,641 contracts), the VIX (4,583 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (4,548 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-1,233 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-586 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. See full article…


Have a Wonderful Trading Week

By InvestMacro.com

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators, non-commercials (for-profit traders), commercial traders and small traders were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Week 11: Mexican Peso Speculator bets touching most bullish levels in 4 years

COT | Data | Leaders | What is COT? | Excel | COT Dashboard

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes. Data updated through March 12th.


Mexican Peso Speculator bets touching most bullish levels in 4 years

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (16,521 contracts) with the British Pound (12,066 contracts), the EuroFX (8,096 contracts), the US Dollar Index (3,087 contracts), the Brazilian Real (407 contracts) and Bitcoin (358 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,037 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,097 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,763 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,294 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-319 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

See full article…


Weekly Market Price Changes

Gasoline, Palladium & Cocoa Futures lead weekly price gains

See Weekly Price Changes for major markets and their performance.


COT Speculator Extremes

Speculator Extremes: GBP, Peso, Soybeans & Australian Dollar lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. See full article…


COT Bonds

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (313,749 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (109,712 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (61,465 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (51,988 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (29,753 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,866 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (3,503 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

See full article…


COT Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (12,663 contracts) with Platinum (11,783 contracts), Copper (10,754 contracts), Gold (10,309 contracts) and Palladium (2,016 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only metals market with declines in speculator bets was Steel with a reduction by -560 contracts on the week.

See full article…


COT Soft Commodities

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,857 contracts) with Soybeans (16,828 contracts), Soybean Oil (16,286 contracts), Live Cattle (3,932 contracts), Sugar (3,186 contracts), Coffee (2,959 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,622 contracts) and Cocoa (2,469 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-8,981 contracts), Cotton (-3,599 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,812 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

See full article…


COT Stock Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (3,729 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (1,604 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,085 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (760 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-35,387 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,688 contracts) and the VIX (-3,151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

See full article…


Have a Wonderful Trading Week

By InvestMacro.com

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators, non-commercials (for-profit traders), commercial traders and small traders were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Week 7: FX Speculators push British Pound bullish bets to 25-week high

COT | Data | Leaders | What is COT? | Excel | COT Dashboard

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes. Data updated through February 13th.


FX Speculators push British Pound bullish bets to 25-week high

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


Weekly Market Price Changes

Lean Hogs, VIX & Palladium lead weekly price gains

NamePctChg_5_Days
Lean Hogs15.96
VIX9.54
Palladium9.52
Bitcoin9.14
Cotton6.21
Silver3.88
Platinum3.81
Cocoa Futures2.69
WTI Crude Oil2.41
Brent Oil1.80

 

Natural Gas, Soybean Oil & Wheat lead the price declines

NamePctChg_5_Days
Natural Gas-11.45
Soybean Oil-4.05
Wheat-3.65
Sugar-2.92
Heating Oil-2.32
Corn-2.29
Soybean Meal-2.19
Steel-1.69
Soybeans-1.44
Nasdaq-1.24

 

See Weekly Price Changes for major markets and their performance.


COT Speculator Extremes

Speculator Extremes: Mexican Peso, Dow, Corn & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. See full article…


COT Bonds

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 2-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


COT Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts. See full article…


COT Soft Commodities

Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator bets led by Cotton & Sugar

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


COT Stock Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


Have a Wonderful Trading Week

By InvestMacro.com

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators, non-commercials (for-profit traders), commercial traders and small traders were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Week 5: Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

COT | Data | Leaders | What is COT? | Excel | COT Dashboard

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes. Data updated through January 30th.


Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (6,063 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (5,294 contracts), British Pound (2,716 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,267 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (703 contracts) and the EuroFX (447 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-9,810 contracts) the Brazilian Real (-5,452 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,175 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,275 contracts) and Bitcoin (-137 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

See full article…


Weekly Market Price Changes

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds, Cocoa Futures & Coffee lead weekly price gains

NamePctChg_5_Days
Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds7.68
Cocoa Futures7.16
Coffee3.88
VIX3.20
US Treasury Bond2.55
Lean Hogs2.02
Bitcoin1.98
Nikkei 2251.53
S&P500 Mini1.26
Live Cattle1.14

 

Steel, Gasoline & WTI Crude Oil lead the price declines

NamePctChg_5_Days
Steel-9.94
Gasoline-7.97
WTI Crude Oil-7.55
Brent Oil-6.86
Natural Gas-3.68
Heating Oil-2.95
Platinum-2.45
Bloomberg Commodity Index-2.38
Soybean Oil-2.00
Wheat-1.76

 

See Weekly Price Changes for major markets and their performance.


COT Speculator Extremes

Speculator Extremes: DowJones, Nasdaq, Soybeans & Corn lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. See full article…


COT Bonds

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


COT Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher speculator contracts. See full article…


COT Soft Commodities

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


COT Stock Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq & DowJones

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


Have a Wonderful Trading Week

By InvestMacro.com

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators, non-commercials (for-profit traders), commercial traders and small traders were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Week 3: Currency Speculators drop their US Dollar Index bets to 133-week low

COT | Data | Leaders | What is COT? | Excel | COT Dashboard

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes. Data updated through January 16th.


Currency Speculators drop their US Dollar Index bets to 133-week low

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


Weekly Market Price Changes

VIX, Sugar & Cocoa Futures lead weekly price gains

NamePctChg_5_Days
VIX13.59
Sugar5.71
Cocoa Futures4.31
Nasdaq2.80
Live Cattle2.39
Gasoline2.14
WTI Crude Oil1.59
Cotton1.41
Brent Oil1.30
S&P500 Mini1.19

 

Natural Gas, Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds & Wheat lead the price declines

NamePctChg_5_Days
Natural Gas-17.25
Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds-4.38
Wheat-4.13
Palladium-3.61
Bitcoin-3.39
US Treasury Bond-2.80
Corn-2.69
Coffee-2.23
Japanese Yen-2.18
New Zealand Dollar-2.13

 

See Weekly Price Changes for major markets and their performance.


COT Speculator Extremes

Speculator Extremes: SOFR-3M, Nasdaq, Corn & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. See full article…


COT Bonds

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


COT Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets fall this week led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts. See full article…


COT Soft Commodities

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


COT Stock Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500 & Russell

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


Have a Wonderful Trading Week

By InvestMacro.com

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators, non-commercials (for-profit traders), commercial traders and small traders were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Week 2: FX Speculators push British Pound bets to highest since September

COT | Data | Leaders | What is COT? | Excel | COT Dashboard

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes. Data updated through January 9th.


Currency Speculators push British Pound bets to highest since September

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


Weekly Market Price Changes

Natural Gas, Lean Hogs & Nikkei 225 lead weekly price gains

NamePctChg_5_Days
Natural Gas14.85
Lean Hogs5.14
Nikkei 2254.39
Heating Oil3.30
Nasdaq3.27
S&P500 Mini2.03
Cotton1.55
Sugar1.36
MSCI EAFE MINI1.21
Soybean Oil1.02

 

VIX, Palladium & Soybean Meal lead the price declines

NamePctChg_5_Days
VIX-11.96
Palladium-5.90
Soybean Meal-5.19
Platinum-5.15
Corn-2.97
Steel-2.18
Soybeans-1.87
Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds-1.62
Wheat-1.59
Copper-1.42

 

See Weekly Price Changes for major markets and their performance.


COT Speculator Extremes

Speculator Extremes: DowJones & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. See full article…


COT Bonds

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


COT Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets go lower led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts. See full article…


COT Soft Commodities

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


COT Stock Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by S&P500 & Russell

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning. See full article…


Have a Wonderful Trading Week

By InvestMacro.com

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators, non-commercials (for-profit traders), commercial traders and small traders were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

What is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)?

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate or SOFR for short, is a benchmark interest rate created by the US Federal Reserve. The SOFR has recently been implemented in order to better reflect the actual cost of borrowing cash overnight for large banking and financial firms. The financing interest rate is calculated using data from overnight repurchase agreement (REPO) transactions. REPO market transactions are essentially loans between market participants that are backed and collateralized by Treasury securities.

Banks, pension funds, insurance companies, brokers, money market funds and asset managing companies are some examples of participants active in the REPO markets.

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) replaces LIBOR

The SOFR serves as a replacement for the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) in U.S. dollar-denominated derivatives and other financial contracts. LIBOR is not secured by Treasuries and is based on a survey of banks, which can be subject to manipulation. In fact, the LIBOR market had a major scandal where major banking institutions colluded to manipulate the LIBOR rate for their own benefit. Scandals aside, the usefulness of LIBOR started to wane after 2008 with less transactions taking place in the LIBOR markets. This prompted a need for a replacement benchmark lending rate that was more accurate and robust.

The SOFR has many advantages over LIBOR including that it is based on actual transactions as over $1 trillion dollars a day are traded in the REPO markets. This makes the SOFR a more accurate measure of the cost of borrowing cash for the participants of these markets. It is also seen as a risk-free alternative as transactions are backed by US Treasury bonds and notes.

The SOFR will also be used as the reference rate for a new type of overnight repo transaction called a standing repo facility. The standing repo facility will be available to a broad range of counterparties, including banks, broker-dealers, money market funds, and non-bank financial companies. The standing repo facility will help reduce funding pressures in the event of a market disruptions.

Where to get Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) Data?

sofr_secured_overnight_financing_rate

You can freely download or reference daily SOFR data and up to date interest rates from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or from FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

About the Author:

Taylor Wilman is an experienced financial trader and stock market investor that writes for the InvestMacro finance blog.