COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Wheat, Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat, Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (33,391 contracts) with Corn (30,483 contracts), Soybean Meal (24,649 contracts), Soybeans (12,596 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,577 contracts), Cotton (7,019 contracts), Cocoa (2,145 contracts) and Coffee (2,204 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-11,963 contracts) with Sugar (-2,872 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-807 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Wheat leads Soft Commodities Price Performances this week

The top market this week in the Soft Commodities price performances was Wheat, which rose by a strong 7.17% over the past five days. Soybean Oil comes in next with a 2.84% rise on the week, while Lean Hogs was up by 2.68%.

Soybeans had a modest 0.52% gain on the week, and Corn rounded out the gainers with a 0.16% increase.

On the downside, Sugar dipped by -0.27%, followed by Soybean Meal, which fell by a similar -0.30%. Cotton dropped by more than -2.5% with a -2.88% decline, while Live Cattle dropped by -4.27%, and Coffee fell by -4.93% over the past five days.

The biggest decliner on the week was Cocoa, which saw a reduction by -6.08%.

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Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Cotton & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (96 percent) and Wheat (86 percent) currently lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (74 percent), Soybeans (71 percent) and Soybean Meal (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (38 percent) and the Live Cattle (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (54.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (50.0 percent)
Sugar (38.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (39.0 percent)
Coffee (51.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.9 percent)
Soybeans (71.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (68.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (68.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (70.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (60.5 percent)
Live Cattle (46.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.5 percent)
Cotton (95.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (91.7 percent)
Cocoa (11.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.8 percent)
Wheat (85.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.5 percent)

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Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (21 percent) and Coffee (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (9 percent), Cocoa (6 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-17 percent), Soybean Oil (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-27.4 percent)
Sugar (9.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.1 percent)
Coffee (14.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (9.0 percent)
Soybeans (-13.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-20.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-28.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-37.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-5.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-24.2 percent)
Cotton (6.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.4 percent)
Cocoa (6.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.1 percent)
Wheat (20.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-33.9 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position increase of 30,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,980 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	41.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	46.8	10.4
– Net Position:	131,463	-94,976	-36,487
– Gross Longs:	482,223	703,349	140,668
– Gross Shorts:	350,760	798,325	177,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	42.8	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	2.5	44.2

 

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SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,273 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	47.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	41.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-62,145	58,263	3,882
– Gross Longs:	270,018	477,149	74,460
– Gross Shorts:	332,163	418,886	70,578
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	63.2	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-8.6	4.3

 

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COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,623 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	38.2	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	55.9	3.3
– Net Position:	27,827	-29,450	1,623
– Gross Longs:	53,913	63,817	7,156
– Gross Shorts:	26,086	93,267	5,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	49.7	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-15.5	26.3

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 125,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 12,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,807 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	49.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	59.8	7.0
– Net Position:	125,403	-101,014	-24,389
– Gross Longs:	220,823	500,119	46,389
– Gross Shorts:	95,420	601,133	70,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	29.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	14.6	-4.8

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 107,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,666 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	66.0	4.0
– Net Position:	107,243	-118,359	11,116
– Gross Longs:	159,949	302,751	36,891
– Gross Shorts:	52,706	421,110	25,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	25.1	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	14.6	17.7

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 87,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 24,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,388 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	43.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	62.0	4.5
– Net Position:	87,037	-111,252	24,215
– Gross Longs:	170,509	260,244	51,424
– Gross Shorts:	83,472	371,496	27,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	29.2	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.0	26.0	27.4

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 69,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -11,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,668 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.2	33.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.1	11.6
– Net Position:	69,705	-61,324	-8,381
– Gross Longs:	122,352	104,345	27,905
– Gross Shorts:	52,647	165,669	36,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	46.0	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	6.7	36.9

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -65,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decline of -807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,421 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	43.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	21.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-65,228	63,153	2,075
– Gross Longs:	62,355	124,457	22,248
– Gross Shorts:	127,583	61,304	20,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	14.7	31.4

 

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COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 95,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,428 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	35.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	67.8	2.5
– Net Position:	95,447	-105,278	9,831
– Gross Longs:	134,337	113,271	17,856
– Gross Shorts:	38,890	218,549	8,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.9	6.4	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-6.4	9.1

 

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COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,729 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	50.2	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	45.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-10,584	9,170	1,414
– Gross Longs:	33,972	102,317	10,134
– Gross Shorts:	44,556	93,147	8,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	86.9	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.9	12.6

 

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WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 33,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,730 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	39.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	36.3	7.9
– Net Position:	-16,339	15,634	705
– Gross Longs:	117,880	171,307	34,741
– Gross Shorts:	134,219	155,673	34,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.5	16.2	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-19.7	-9.3

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.