Australian trade balance returned to positive territory

On Wednesday, the US stock indices finished trading near historical highs amid strong corporate earnings and an improving macroeconomic backdrop. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.49%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.17%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed Wednesday in negative territory at 0.83%. The main driver behind easing inflation concerns came from the commodity market: oil prices continued to decline following reports that Iran had reached an agreement with Oman on an alternative shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, along with US confirmation of progress in restoring trade flows.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed slightly higher at 0.03%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.17%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.08%. On Wednesday, European stock indices showed mixed dynamics, holding near the historical highs reached earlier in the week.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices (WTI) consolidated below 76 dollars per barrel, stabilizing after a drop of more than 5% over the previous two sessions. The market is pricing in strong optimism regarding the imminent conclusion of a temporary agreement to unblock shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The US, Iran, and Oman are close to signing a 60‑day deal to open the strategic waterway without additional fees, and an official statement from Washington could come as early as Wednesday. President Donald Trump confirmed a positive outlook, noting the successful nature of negotiations with Tehran and promising to reveal details within the next 48 hours.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.66%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed higher at 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed yesterday up 0.90%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) is steadily holding above 0.705 USD. The main driver of the currency’s strengthening was unexpected trade data: in June, Australia’s trade balance returned to a surplus of 1.9 billion AUD (after a revised deficit of 2.4 billion AUD in May). A sharp recovery in gold and iron ore exports, along with stabilized imports, provided significant support to the national economy.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened slightly to around 0.589 USD, returning to a two‑month high amid rising global risk appetite driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A day earlier, the New Zealand currency had been under pressure due to weak labor‑market statistics, which reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will proceed gradually. Nevertheless, market participants still price in a 0.25‑percentage‑point rate hike in September.