COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil & Heating Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil (3,225 contracts) with Heating Oil (3,214 contracts) and the Bloomberg Index (1,701 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-13,305 contracts), WTI Crude (-13,066 contracts) and Gasoline (-239 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Oil, WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline lead Energy Market Price Performances

In the Energy markets this week, all of the six markets that we cover were higher on the week. Leading the gains was Brent Oil, which jumped by 12.07% and was followed by WTI Crude Oil, which advanced by a similar 11.65%. Next up, Gasoline advanced by 11.08% on the week.

Heating Oil was higher by 8.45%, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index was above a 4% gain with a 4.35% rise. Rounding out the gainers with a small rise was Natural Gas, which edged up by 0.03%.

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Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Bloomberg Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (54.6 percent) and Bloomberg Index (53.1 percent) lead the energy markets this week. Gasoline (51.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude (7.4 percent) and Natural Gas (17.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (40.4 percent)
Natural Gas (17.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (26.4 percent)
Gasoline (51.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (51.4 percent)
Heating Oil (54.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (50.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (51.6 percent)

 

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Bloomberg Index tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (39.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Heating Oil (5.8 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-30.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-4.8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-30.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-27.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-4.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (12.9 percent)
Natural Gas (4.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (24.3 percent)
Gasoline (2.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (4.0 percent)
Heating Oil (5.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (39.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (38.0 percent)

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Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -13,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,749 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	49.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	53.8	2.7
– Net Position:	62,683	-85,088	22,405
– Gross Longs:	302,429	923,364	72,706
– Gross Shorts:	239,746	1,008,452	50,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.4	90.8	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.0	31.5	-19.4

 

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Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -21,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 3,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,649 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	35.1	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	27.7	2.4
– Net Position:	-21,424	18,505	2,919
– Gross Longs:	52,462	86,863	8,741
– Gross Shorts:	73,886	68,358	5,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	49.7	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	9.5	-29.5

 

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Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -178,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -13,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,307 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	32.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	22.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-178,612	165,528	13,084
– Gross Longs:	287,255	536,312	56,425
– Gross Shorts:	465,867	370,784	43,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	84.3	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-5.4	2.2

 

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Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -239 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,224 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	43.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	64.6	4.4
– Net Position:	57,985	-68,653	10,668
– Gross Longs:	97,460	140,933	25,057
– Gross Shorts:	39,475	209,586	14,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	43.2	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-1.8	-2.6

 

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#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 3,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,262 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	43.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	55.8	10.2
– Net Position:	8,476	-32,395	23,919
– Gross Longs:	49,219	114,396	50,855
– Gross Shorts:	40,743	146,791	26,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	35.7	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-1.2	-8.7

 

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Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -30,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 1,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,896 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	48.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.5	32.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-30,195	29,772	423
– Gross Longs:	92,871	90,259	436
– Gross Shorts:	123,066	60,487	13
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	33.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.9	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.5	-39.4	-1.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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