By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (63,072 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (44,881 contracts), Fed Funds (42,519 contracts), and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17,598 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.
The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-145,148 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-19,500 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-16,429 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (-11,716 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (71 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (67 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (34 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (36 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (62.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (33.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (34.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (14.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (35.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (29.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (27.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (57.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (64.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (66.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (59.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (71.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (78.5 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (41 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (10 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The US Treasury Bonds (-21 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (40.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-0.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (11.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (14.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-21.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (13.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (10.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-8.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.8 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SOFR 3-Months Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.9 | 55.7 | 0.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.9 | 57.7 | 0.3 |
| – Net Position: | 207,937 | -205,509 | -2,428 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,737,995 | 5,712,438 | 31,071 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,530,058 | 5,917,947 | 33,499 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.0 | 29.0 | 86.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.6 | 8.4 | 2.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.5 | 66.8 | 2.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.1 | 64.7 | 2.4 |
| – Net Position: | -30,696 | 39,787 | -9,091 |
| – Gross Longs: | 330,432 | 1,262,667 | 37,050 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 361,128 | 1,222,880 | 46,141 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 62.0 | 38.2 | 73.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 40.7 | -39.0 | -14.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.
| 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.5 | 79.2 | 6.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.0 | 57.5 | 3.7 |
| – Net Position: | -946,290 | 835,258 | 111,032 |
| – Gross Longs: | 480,808 | 3,054,858 | 255,152 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,427,098 | 2,219,600 | 144,120 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.9 | 63.8 | 86.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.2 | 1.8 | -8.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.5 | 83.5 | 6.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.9 | 64.8 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | -1,239,420 | 1,135,137 | 104,283 |
| – Gross Longs: | 453,736 | 5,069,821 | 414,045 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,693,156 | 3,934,684 | 309,762 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 14.7 | 84.6 | 84.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.8 | 5.9 | -6.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.3 | 77.1 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.0 | 65.7 | 9.2 |
| – Net Position: | -506,885 | 499,361 | 7,524 |
| – Gross Longs: | 494,910 | 3,362,732 | 407,654 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,001,795 | 2,863,371 | 400,130 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 35.7 | 58.8 | 75.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.8 | -14.9 | -9.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.1 | 73.8 | 10.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.9 | 62.4 | 14.0 |
| – Net Position: | -159,423 | 232,177 | -72,754 |
| – Gross Longs: | 287,329 | 1,507,019 | 214,044 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 446,752 | 1,274,842 | 286,798 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 24.1 | 72.3 | 70.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.2 | -7.3 | -0.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.0 | 71.5 | 12.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.9 | 68.6 | 10.4 |
| – Net Position: | -75,190 | 44,815 | 30,375 |
| – Gross Longs: | 228,657 | 1,092,218 | 189,742 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 303,847 | 1,047,403 | 159,367 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 57.3 | 33.0 | 70.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -21.3 | 31.7 | -12.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.6 | 80.1 | 11.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.1 | 61.6 | 11.1 |
| – Net Position: | -295,855 | 296,883 | -1,028 |
| – Gross Longs: | 138,457 | 1,283,593 | 176,373 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 434,312 | 986,710 | 177,401 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 66.9 | 41.7 | 36.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.0 | 4.6 | -31.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
By JustMarkets At Wednesday's close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index increased by 0.88%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index…
By ForexTime USDInd bears take home 600 points! Soybean: No fireworks but H1 bullish target…
By RoboForex Analytical Department The yen’s exchange rate rose to the US dollar on Thursday in…
By JustMarkets At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.32%, while the…
By Derek Lemoine, University of Arizona To understand how important weather and climate risks are…
By ForexTime GameStop ↑ 179% this week ↑ as much as 32.6% pre-market 2nd most traded…
This website uses cookies.
