24 Feb

Supreme Court rules against Trump’s emergency tariffs – but leaves key questions unanswered

By Kent Jones, Babson College 

President Donald Trump’s economic agenda took a major hit when the Supreme Court struck down many of his most sweeping tariffs. While Trump has options to restore some of the tariffs, he’s losing his most powerful tool to impose them almost at will as a bargaining chip with other countries.

In a 6-3 decision on Feb. 20, 2026, the court ruled that Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to unilaterally impose tariffs on other countries was unconstitutional. Since January 2025, Trump has used the act to impose tariffs on nearly every other country.

As a trade economist, I wasn’t particularly surprised by the ruling. In the oral arguments, several justices were openly skeptical about the president’s ability to claim virtually unlimited powers to set tariffs without specific congressional language to authorize them. While the ruling answers some questions about the legality of Trump’s tariffs, it leaves many others unanswered.

What are the tariffs the court ruled against?

The tariffs that the court ruled are illegal include the “reciprocal” tariffs Trump imposed to match the value of trade barriers set by other countries. They ranged from 34% on China to a baseline of 10% for the rest of the world.

They also include a 25% tariff on some goods from Canada, China and Mexico over those countries’ supposed failure to curb the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.

By striking down these tariffs, the Supreme Court will presumably force U.S. tariff schedules to revert to the status quo before they were imposed on April 2, 2025, or “liberation day,” as Trump called it.

Why did the Supreme Court rule against the tariffs?

Most of the tariffs Trump has imposed used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to provide legal justification. While the law allows the president to respond to economic emergencies with measures such as embargoes and asset seizures, it does not specifically authorize the use of tariffs imposed unilaterally.

This was a major point made in the Supreme Court decision. In every other statute available to the president to use tariffs, there is specific language stating the way in which tariffs can be imposed, language that is absent in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act statute.

The majority decision, in which the court’s liberal justices were joined by three of its conservatives, determined that the president overreached his powers to set tariffs, based on Article 1, Section 8, of the U.S Constitution. Any delegation of tariff-making powers in an emergency to the president must be consistent with this provision.

It is also noteworthy that Trump openly declared that one of the benefits of the tariffs was how much revenue they bring in. But the majority decision noted that this represented an unauthorized presidential power to tax, which is also governed by the Article 1, Section 8, provision that assigns this power exclusively to Congress.

What does this mean for Trump’s trade policy?

Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs as leverage to negotiate numerous bilateral deals with U.S. trading partners. Now that the tariffs have been declared unconstitutional, many countries may demand that the deals be renegotiated.

The decision does not cover all of the administration’s tariffs, including national security tariffs imposed under Section 232 for specific industries such as autos, steel and aluminum, and Section 301, a statute that allows the president to impose tariffs against individual countries if they have imposed unfair or discriminatory trade actions against the U.S. This covers some of the tariffs on imports from China.

What other options does Trump have to achieve similar results?

Trump has often used or threatened to use International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs for political reasons, including against Brazil over its prosecution of a former president, Mexico over immigration and Canada over its plans to sign a trade deal with China, and other reasons.

The Supreme Court decision will make it more difficult for Trump to use tariffs and tariff threats in that way. One outcome is that constitutional limits the justices set on presidential tariff-making powers should constrain the justification of tariffs for political reasons.

The main avenues for new tariffs in response to the Supreme Court decision are sections 232 and 301. The president could potentially try to get Congress to pass new legislation expanding his tariff powers, but that seems unlikely in an election year.

However, it is important to understand that he chose to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as the mainspring of his trade policy because he interpreted it as providing him with full discretion in the unlimited power to impose tariffs without further congressional constraints.

In order to impose similar tariffs under Section 232, for example, each tariff order must be focused on a single industry, and the Commerce Department must issue a report documenting the emergency as it applies to that industry. Presumably, Trump will be preparing to use Section 232 for a large numbers of industries in addition to those currently covered by that statute.

For at least some of the countries with which Trump has already negotiated bilateral trade deals, many of their exports would not be covered by Section 232 tariffs, hence the likelihood that those countries will demand a renegotiation.

Will US companies get refunds for the tariffs they’ve already paid?

The Supreme Court decision appears not to address the question of tariff rebates, but many companies have already indicated that they will demand them.

In principle, any U.S. company in possession of tariff receipts documenting their payment of tariffs would be eligible for a refund if the Supreme Court approves this remedy.

What are the political consequences of this decision?

Since public opinion about Trump’s tariffs is already negative, the president will have to deal with a likely backlash against any attempts to replace the rejected tariffs with new ones.

It will be interesting to see how Republicans in Congress react to Trump’s tariff strategy in view of the upcoming midterm elections. For example, Republicans from states that border Canada may push back against further efforts to curb trade with their northern neighbor.

This may impose a further constraint on Trump’s tariff policy.The Conversation

About the Author:

Kent Jones, Professor Emeritus, Economics, Babson College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
24 Feb

Final Approval Clears the Way for Full-Scale Uranium Push in Paraguay

Source: Streetwise Reports (2/23/26) 

Vanguard Mining Corp. (UUU:CSE; UUUFF:OTC; SL51:FWB) received its final environmental licences for the Yuty PrometeoSan Jose Uranium Project in southeastern Paraguay. Read how the approvals complete the permitting process and coincide with Vanguards application for a Prospection Permit to advance uranium exploration.

Fraser Institute Jurisdiction Rating
Vanguard Mining Corp.

British Columbia
(last modified 11/26/25)
Friendly Policies 67.42%
Best Practices Mineral Potential Index 85.45%
Socioeconomic Agreements/Community Development Conditions, aka Safety 40%
Political Stability 50%

Data from the
Fraser Institute’s Mining Survey

Vanguard Mining Corp. (UUU:CSE; UUUFF:OTC; SL51:FWB) announced that it has secured its final set of Environmental Licences from Paraguay’s Ministerio del Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (MADES), completing the licensing process for its 90,000-hectare Yuty Prometeo–San Jose Uranium Project in southeastern Paraguay.

The company reported that the Environmental Licences now cover the entire land position at Yuty Prometeo–San Jose, with no additional environmental approvals required. Concurrently, Vanguard has submitted an application for a Prospection Permit with Paraguay’s Vice Ministry of Mining and Energy (VMME), which is described as a critical step toward full-scale uranium exploration authorization.

This development coincides with Paraguay’s growing profile in the global critical minerals sector, highlighted by its participation alongside the United States in a high-level ministerial summit in Washington, D.C., hosted by the U.S. Department of State. The meeting on February 4 addressed cooperation on uranium, lithium, and rare earth element supply chains. Paraguay’s Deputy Minister of Mines and Energy, Mauricio Bejarano, cited rising global demand as a factor drawing international attention to the country.

David Greenway, Chief Executive Officer of Vanguard Mining, stated in a company news release, “The receipt of our final MADES Environmental Licences marks a significant permitting milestone and further advances the Yuty Prometeo–San Jose Uranium Project toward prospection authorization.”

According to the company, the project area spans four concessions — three San Jose and one Prometeo — within the Paraná Basin. The Prometeo Concession covers approximately 27,666 hectares and is adjacent to Uranium Energy Corp.’s (UEC) Yuty Project. Historical data referenced in the news release described uranium-bearing mineralization identified in seven of 27 drill holes completed on the Prometeo property, including one hole reporting values between 0.05% and 0.10% U₃O₈ across 107 meters. The San Jose concessions cover an additional 62,210 hectares. A radiometric car survey conducted over this area identified significant uranium anomalies.

Vanguard noted that all drill results are historical in nature and have not been independently verified. The company intends to complete confirmatory drilling to validate this information in accordance with NI 43-101.

Uranium Market Sees Rising Production and Tightening Supply

According to a February 2 report from Mining.com, uranium production forecasts increased as Kazatomprom projected 71.5 to 75.4 million pounds of U₃O₈ output, marking a 9% rise over the previous year. The company attributed the increase to ramp-up activities at its Budenovskoye joint venture in southern Kazakhstan. Analyst Alexander Pearce of BMO Capital Markets noted the projection was 6% higher than BMO’s internal estimates and commented that “the update could see some modest pressure on uranium prices via a slightly reduced supply deficit near-term.”

In a February 4 article published by Mining.com, Blair McBride reported that the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust purchased 250,000 pounds of uranium oxide, bringing its first-quarter total to 3.65 million pounds. That purchase contributed to a total inventory of 78.4 million pounds and marked Sprott’s second-highest quarterly acquisition in four years. The report noted that the uranium spot price fell from US$101.55 per pound to US$91.80 per pound during the same week.

Materials from Sprott.com released in February outlined broader sector dynamics. The firm stated there were 436 operational nuclear reactors globally, with 190 additional units either planned or under construction, based on data from the World Nuclear Association as of January 13. Sprott wrote that “global uranium production in 2024 covered less than 80% of reactor demand,” with the shortfall offset by inventory drawdowns and spot market activity. It also noted that uranium inventories at nuclear power plants had reached “strategic lows,” creating what the firm described as significant pent-up demand from utilities.

Sprott further explained that even if all existing and planned uranium mines operated at peak levels, they were not expected to meet projected reactor demand through 2045. The firm stated that this shortfall could reach 1.4 billion pounds under current scenarios and up to 3 billion pounds if global nuclear capacity were to triple. The report also highlighted that uranium and uranium miners had outperformed other major asset classes over the prior five-year period, based on internal performance tracking.

“Key Property of Interest”: Analyst Flags Vanguard’s Uranium Project as Standout Asset

1In a December 23 technical commentary, John Newell of John Newell & Associates referred to Vanguard Mining Corp. as a situation where “the fundamentals, the asset base, and the technical picture are beginning to align.” He noted that the company held a diversified portfolio of uranium, copper, and gold assets across the Americas, with core uranium concessions in Paraguay’s Paraná Basin and base metals projects in British Columbia. He described the Yuty Prometeo Uranium Project as the company’s “key property of interest” and stated it had “the greatest potential to move Vanguard’s shares.”

Newell highlighted that the Prometeo Uno concession had returned uranium grades ranging from 0.05% to 0.10% U₃O₈ from 28 historical drill holes. He added that geophysical surveys and sampling suggested the property “aligns with the same regional trend” as known mineralization in the area. He called the setting “compelling” and pointed to upcoming confirmatory drilling as a “clear near-term catalyst that could materially de-risk the project.”

Regarding the company’s British Columbia assets, Newell stated that the Redonda Copper-Molybdenum Project and Brussels Creek Gold-Copper-Palladium Project were “prospective for porphyry-style systems.” He also noted that Vanguard held “an early-stage lithium brine project in Argentina” for exposure to the battery metals sector.

Newell acknowledged the company’s oversubscribed August 2025 financing and stated that Vanguard appeared “funded for upcoming exploration programs and reducing near-term financing risk.” He described the capital structure as “reasonable for a company at this stage and offers leverage to exploration success.”

From a technical perspective, he wrote that the stock’s chart showed “a long base forming after the sharp decline seen through late 2023 and early 2024,” along with a “progressive series of higher lows, accompanied by improving volume, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.” He identified several upside targets, including CA$0.32 (met), CA$0.50, CA$0.90, and a broader long-term target of CA$1.50.

Newell concluded, “With a tight share structure, experienced management, exposure to uranium and copper in proven jurisdictions, and a constructive technical setup, Vanguard Mining checks several boxes for speculative investors.” He assigned the company a “Speculative Buy rating.”

Upcoming Work and Regulatory Milestones

Vanguard Mining outlined several near-term programs and policy developments related to its uranium and copper-gold exploration assets in its investor presentation. In Paraguay, the company plans to conduct a confirmatory drill program. The objective of this program is to validate historical results and potentially align the concession with the adjacent uranium trend associated with UEC’s Yuty project. Vanguard noted that successful assays would support a maiden resource estimate pathway.

In British Columbia, the company has scheduled trenching and drilling at its Brussels Creek Project. These efforts are aimed at testing priority gold-copper targets identified through historical exploration. The company highlighted that the project’s proximity to infrastructure such as highways, power, and services may reduce exploration and development risk.

Additionally, the company’s August 2025 financing, which raised CA$2.32 million, was described in the investor presentation as providing funding for uranium exploration in Paraguay and gold-copper work in British Columbia.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Vanguard Mining Corp. (UUU:CSE; UUUFF:OTC; SL51:FWB)

Retail: 96.05%
Management & Insiders: 3.95%
Share Structure as of 2/18/2026

Market and policy catalysts identified in the company’s investor materials included increasing uranium spot prices, an expanding global fleet of nuclear reactors, and support from U.S. initiatives such as Section 232 tariffs on critical minerals. The company also pointed to rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence and data centers as a relevant factor supporting interest in nuclear energy.

Ownership and Share Structure2

3.95% of Vanguard Mining is owned by management and insiders.

The rest is retail.

Vanguard Mining Corp. has 76,306,621 shares outstanding and an estimated market capitalization of approximately US$12.36 million, based on recent trading prices. Shares trade in a 52-week range between US$0.06 and US$0.49.

Important Disclosures:

  1. Vanguard Mining is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000. In addition, Vanguard Mining has a consulting relationship with Street Smart an affiliate of Streetwise Reports. Street Smart Clients pay a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Vanguard Mining.
  3. James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

1. Disclosure for the quote from the John Newell article published on December 23, 2025

  1. For the quoted article (published on December 23, 2025), the Company has paid Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, US$3,000.
  2. Author Certification and Compensation: [John Newell of John Newell and Associates] was retained and compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart for writing this article. Mr. Newell holds a Chartered Investment Management (CIM) designation (2015) and a  U.S. Portfolio Manager designation (2015). The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the companies discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly tied to the specific recommendations or views expressed.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

2. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Energy Financial News
24 Feb

Supreme Court delivers Trump a heavy tariff blow

By ForexTime 

  • Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs 6-3
  • Trump announces new global tariffs of up to 15%
  • USD set for big week due to high-risk events
  • Precious metals rally on risk-off mode

After the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs on Friday, he fought back, announcing new global tariffs of 10% – which were hiked to 15% over the weekend.

This development has certainly opened a can of worms:

  • The $175 billion problem – The US government may have to refund ~$175 billion in duties already collected. *Note: Polymarket are forecasting a 20% chance*
  • Fiscal woes – Tariffs were projected to bring in trillions of dollars over the course of Trump’s term and beyond. With this gone, the fiscal outlook deteriorated further.
  •  Existing trade deals – Senior US officials have also urged that Trump’s defeat won’t unravel deals negotiated with trade partners…

Renewed global trade uncertainty could spell trouble for US equities while supporting safe-haven assets.

Markets kicked off Sunday evening with price gaps from Friday’s close as investors reacted to the weekend turmoil.

  • USDInd: -0.3%
  •  XAUUSD: +1%
  • XAGUSD: +3%

 

USDInd set for rollercoaster week?

DID YOU KNOW:

FXTM’s USDInd has gained roughly 1% month-to-date with prices lingering below 98.00.

WHAT COULD MOVE USDInd THIS WEEK:

It could be a pivotal week for the greenback thanks to a triple risk cocktail revolving around Trump.

  • Trump’s tariff chaos: A renewed sense of uncertainty over global trade following the Supreme Court’s decision and the ramifications it may have on the US economy could hit the dollar.
  • Trump’s State of the Union address: On Tuesday, President Trump will deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term. Any comments on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy may shake the greenback.
  • Trump’s threat to strike Iran: The United States and Iran are to hold the next round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday after tensions escalated in recent days. Whatever the outcome of the talks may impact the US dollar.

Beyond these high-impact events, top US data and speeches by various Fed officials could add to the overall volatility.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • BULLISH: A strong daily close above 98.00 may open a path toward the 200-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 99.00.
  • BEARISH: Weakness below 98.00 could signal a decline toward 97.00 and 96.50.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
24 Feb

EU and India begin freezing trade dialogues with the US over Trump’s new tariff initiative

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, February 23, the US stock market was hit by a wave of sell-offs, resulting in a deep decline across major indices. By the end of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.66%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 1.04%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 1.13% lower. The primary pressure on the market came from a sharp shift in White House trade policy: after the Supreme Court blocked previous duties, Donald Trump utilized the rare mechanism of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, setting a global tariff at 15%. Investors fear that this measure, which remains in effect for 150 days without Congressional approval, will trigger full-scale trade wars, a concern already confirmed by the European Parliament’s decision to suspend work on a trade agreement with the US.

In parallel with political risks, the technology sector was struck by fears regarding the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence on established business models. IBM shares plummeted 13.1% as a reaction to Anthropic’s launch of new Claude Code tools capable of automating the modernization of legacy code (COBOL), threatening a significant portion of IBM’s consulting and mainframe business. Similar dynamics were observed in the financial sector: American Express shares fell 7.2% after the publication of a sensational report by Citrini Research, which predicts massive white-collar job cuts due to AI implementation, inevitably leading to a decline in consumer spending and transaction volumes.

On Monday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) declined to the 1.37 mark against the US dollar, holding near monthly lows. The currency’s dynamics reflect the market’s attempt to balance the sharp tightening of US trade policy against weakening domestic inflation expectations. Short-term optimism sparked by the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn previous duties was entirely neutralized by Donald Trump’s retaliatory move. On the commodities front, even a moderate strengthening of oil prices failed to support the “loonie.” Renewed protectionist risks and the threat of a large-scale trade confrontation with its largest partner outweigh any positive signals from the energy market.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 17.27 per US dollar, retreating from its mid-2024 peaks under the pressure of a new wave of American protectionism. The main factor for the decline was Donald Trump’s decision to invoke Section 122 of the Trade Act to introduce a 15% global tariff. This step, taken by bypassing the Supreme Court’s decision, creates serious risks for Mexico’s export model, as the 150-day tariff period could become a tool for heavy pressure on Mexico City regarding migration and security issues. Despite positive macroeconomic data from Mexico itself, where Q4 2025 GDP grew by 0.9% thanks to service sector resilience and industrial recovery, investors prefer to exit the peso.

Equity markets in Europe mostly declined on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.06%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.22%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.56%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.02%. The German market demonstrated weaker dynamics compared to other European platforms as investors reacted painfully to Donald Trump’s new tariff initiative. The situation is exacerbated by legal confusion. The European Parliament’s decision to freeze the ratification of the trade agreement with Washington until March triggered mass sell-offs in the Eurozone’s export-oriented industries. Investors are redistributing capital toward less volatile assets while awaiting official clarifications from Washington regarding the fate of existing transatlantic agreements.

WTI oil prices traded around $66.50 per barrel on Monday, holding near six-month highs. The market is in a state of tense anticipation, balancing signals of a possible diplomatic detente against threats of new trade barriers. Traders’ primary focus is on the meeting in Geneva at the end of the week, where the Iranian Foreign Minister and US Ambassador Steve Witkoff will attempt to find a way out of the nuclear impasse. Optimistic statements from Tehran regarding a reachable compromise have somewhat calmed investors; however, the risk of failed negotiations is still priced into current quotes.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) and the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade yesterday, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 2.53%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.61%. Market sentiment is largely defined by uncertainty surrounding Washington’s tariff policy. Donald Trump’s decision to introduce a 15% global tariff in response to the Supreme Court verdict and his threats against countries “playing games” with trade agreements are forcing investors to seek refuge in Chinese and Hong Kong protective government assets. Trump’s new flat rate may actually reduce the overall tariff burden on Chinese exports compared to previous “emergency” duties, which is preventing the market from entering a state of panic selling.

The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds decreased to 1.79% on Tuesday, February 24, returning to three-month lows. The return of investors after the Lunar New Year celebrations took place in an atmosphere of caution, caused by both external trade shocks and Beijing’s restrained stance. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its Loan Prime Rates (LPR) for the ninth consecutive time at 3.0% for one-year and 3.5% for five-year loans, confirming that authorities do not plan aggressive policy easing in the near term, preferring targeted support measures for specific sectors.

Also in the spotlight were sensational reports from Japanese media regarding hidden mechanisms for supporting the yen. It was revealed that in January, the US authorities, on their own initiative, conducted “rate checks”, a procedure that usually precedes actual currency interventions. This operation was led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Washington took this step without an official request from Tokyo, fearing that the political vacuum and volatility ahead of the recent general elections in Japan (held on February 8) could destabilize not only the Yen but also the global bond market.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,837.75 −71.76 (−1.04%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,804.06 −821.91 (−1.66%)

DAX (DE40) 24,991.97 −268.72 (−1.06%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,684.74 −2.15 (−0.02%)

USD Index 97.72 −0.08% (−0.08%)

News feed for: 2026.02.24

  • China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
  • UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:15 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
24 Feb

USD/JPY in the Black as Investors Eye Geopolitical Flare-Up

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY rose to 154.91 on Tuesday. The yen surrendered the previous session’s gains, while the dollar found support despite uncertainty over US trade policy.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced his intention to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a Supreme Court decision that overturned his “reciprocal” duties. He also warned of tougher measures against countries that “play games” with existing trade agreements.

Tokyo urged Washington to ensure that the court’s decision does not harm Japanese companies and reaffirmed its commitment to the existing trade agreement with the US.

At the same time, Japanese media reported that US authorities held consultations last month on exchange rate policy to support the yen and are prepared to coordinate possible intervention at Japan’s request. The initiative was overseen by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent amid concerns that political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s general election could heighten market volatility.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the pair has formed a consolidation range around 154.00. It has now broken out to the upside, opening the way for a move towards 155.75. After reaching this level, a decline towards 151.80 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line holding above the zero level while turning clearly downward.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the pair has broken above 154.80 and is forming an upward wave structure targeting 155.75. Thereafter, a pullback to 154.70 cannot be ruled out. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line positioned above the 80 level and continuing to point firmly upward.

Conclusion

In summary, USD/JPY has resumed its upward momentum, breaking above recent consolidation as the dollar finds support despite escalating trade policy uncertainty. The market is weighing Trump’s aggressive tariff stance against signals that US authorities stand ready to support the yen if necessary.

Technically, the pair has cleared near-term resistance and is targeting 155.75, with indicators suggesting further short-term upside potential. However, the broader outlook remains clouded by geopolitical risks and the possibility of coordinated intervention should the yen weaken excessively. A sustained move above 155.75 would open the way towards 157.00, while a reversal below 154.70 could signal a return to range-bound trading.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
24 Feb

OpenAI has deleted the word ‘safely’ from its mission – and its new structure is a test for whether AI serves society or shareholders

By Alnoor Ebrahim, Tufts University 

OpenAI, the maker of the most popular AI chatbot, used to say it aimed to build artificial intelligence that “safely benefits humanity, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return,” mission statement. But the ChatGPT maker seems to no longer have the same emphasis on doing so “safely.”

While reviewing its latest IRS disclosure form, which was released in November 2025 and covers 2024, I noticed OpenAI had removed “safely” from its mission statement, among other changes. That change in wording coincided with its transformation from a nonprofit organization into a business increasingly focused on profits.

OpenAI currently faces several lawsuits related to its products’ safety, making this change newsworthy. Many of the plaintiffs suing the AI company allege psychological manipulation, wrongful death and assisted suicide, while others have filed negligence claims.

As a scholar of nonprofit accountability and the governance of social enterprises, I see the deletion of the word “safely” from its mission statement as a significant shift that has largely gone unreported – outside highly specialized outlets.

And I believe OpenAI’s makeover is a test case for how we, as a society, oversee the work of organizations that have the potential to both provide enormous benefits and do catastrophic harm.

Tracing OpenAI’s origins

OpenAI, which also makes the Sora video artificial intelligence app, was founded as a nonprofit scientific research lab in 2015. Its original purpose was to benefit society by making its findings public and royalty-free rather than to make money.

To raise the money that developing its AI models would require, OpenAI, under the leadership of CEO Sam Altman, created a for-profit subsidiary in 2019. Microsoft initially invested US$1 billion in this venture; by 2024 that sum had topped $13 billion.

In exchange, Microsoft was promised a portion of future profits, capped at 100 times its initial investment. But the software giant didn’t get a seat on OpenAI’s nonprofit board – meaning it lacked the power to help steer the AI venture it was funding.

A subsequent round of funding in late 2024, which raised $6.6 billion from multiple investors, came with a catch: that the funding would become debt unless OpenAI converted to a more traditional for-profit business in which investors could own shares, without any caps on profits, and possibly occupy board seats.

Establishing a new structure

In October 2025, OpenAI reached an agreement with the attorneys general of California and Delaware to become a more traditional for-profit company.

Under the new arrangement, OpenAI was split into two entities: a nonprofit foundation and a for-profit business.

The restructured nonprofit, the OpenAI Foundation, owns about one-fourth of the stock in a new for-profit public benefit corporation, the OpenAI Group. Both are headquartered in California but incorporated in Delaware.

A public benefit corporation is a business that must consider interests beyond shareholders, such as those of society and the environment, and it must issue an annual benefit report to its shareholders and the public. However, it is up to the board to decide how to weigh those interests and what to report in terms of the benefits and harms caused by the company.

The new structure is described in a signed in October 2025 by OpenAI and the California attorney general, and endorsed by the Delaware attorney general.

Many business media outlets heralded the move, predicting that it would usher in more investment. Two months later, SoftBank, a Japanese conglomerate, finalized a $41 billion investment in OpenAI.

Changing its mission statement

Most charities must file forms annually with the Internal Revenue Service with details about their missions, activities and financial status to show that they qualify for tax-exempt status. Because the IRS makes the forms public, they have become a way for nonprofits to signal their missions to the world.

In its forms for 2022, , OpenAI said its mission was “to build general-purpose artificial intelligence (AI) that safely benefits humanity, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return.”

This is the top of the front page of the 2023 990 form for OpenAI, with its mission stated at the bottom of the screenshot.
OpenAI’s mission statement as of 2023 included the word ‘safely.’
IRS via Candid

That mission statement has changed, as of – which the company filed with the IRS in late 2025. It became “to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.”

This is the top of the front page of the 2024 990 form for OpenAI, with its mission stated at the bottom of the screenshot.
OpenAI’s mission statement as of 2024 no longer included the word ‘safely.’
IRS via Candid

OpenAI had dropped its commitment to safety from its mission statement – along with a commitment to being “unconstrained” by a need to make money for investors. According to Platformer, a tech media outlet, it has also disbanded its “mission alignment” team.

In my view, these changes explicitly signal that OpenAI is making its profits a higher priority than the safety of its products.

To be sure, OpenAI continues to mention safety when it discusses its mission. “We view this mission as the most important challenge of our time,” it states on its website. “It requires simultaneously advancing AI’s capability, safety, and positive impact in the world.”

Revising its legal governance structure

Nonprofit boards are responsible for key decisions and upholding their organization’s mission.

Unlike private companies, board members of tax-exempt charitable nonprofits cannot personally enrich themselves by taking a share of earnings. In cases where a nonprofit owns a for-profit business, as OpenAI did with its previous structure, investors can take a cut of profits – but they typically do not get a seat on the board or have an opportunity to elect board members, because that would be seen as a conflict of interest.

The OpenAI Foundation now has a 26% stake in OpenAI Group. In effect, that means that the nonprofit board has given up nearly three-quarters of its control over the company. Software giant Microsoft owns a slightly larger stake – 27% of OpenAI’s stock – due to its $13.8 billion investment in the AI company to date. OpenAI’s employees and its other investors own the rest of the shares.

Seeking more investment

The main goal of OpenAI’s restructuring, which it called a “recapitalization,” was to attract more private investment in the race for AI dominance.

It has already succeeded on that front.

As of early February 2026, the company was in talks with SoftBank for an additional $30 billion and stands to get up to a total of $60 billion from Amazon, Nvidia and Microsoft combined.

OpenAI is now valued at over $500 billion, up from $300 billion in March 2025. The new structure also paves the way for an eventual initial public offering, which, if it happens, would not only help the company raise more capital through stock markets but would also increase the pressure to make money for its shareholders.

OpenAI says the foundation’s endowment is worth about $130 billion.

Those numbers are only estimates because OpenAI is a privately held company without publicly traded shares. That means these figures are based on market value estimates rather than any objective evidence, such as market capitalization.

When he announced the new structure, California Attorney General Rob Bonta said, “We secured concessions that ensure charitable assets are used for their intended purpose.” He also predicted that “safety will be prioritized” and said the “top priority is, and always will be, protecting our kids.”

Steps that might help keep people safe

At the same time, several conditions in the OpenAI restructuring memo are designed to promote safety, including:

  1. A safety and security committee on the OpenAI Foundation board has the authority to that could potentially include the halting of a release of new OpenAI products based on assessments of their risks.
  2. The for-profit OpenAI Group has its own board, which must consider only OpenAI’s mission – rather than financial issues – regarding safety and security issues.
  3. The OpenAI Foundation’s nonprofit board gets to appoint all members of the OpenAI Group’s for-profit board.

But given that neither the mission of the foundation nor of the OpenAI group explicitly alludes to safety, it will be hard to hold their boards accountable for it.

Furthermore, since all but one board member currently serve on both boards, it is hard to see how they might oversee themselves. And doesn’t indicate whether he was aware of the removal of any reference to safety from the mission statement.

Identifying other paths OpenAI could have taken

There are alternative models that I believe would serve the public interest better than this one.

When Health Net, a California nonprofit health maintenance organization, converted to a for-profit insurance company in 1992, regulators required that 80% of its equity be transferred to another nonprofit health foundation. Unlike with OpenAI, the foundation had majority control after the transformation.

A coalition of California nonprofits has argued that the attorney general should require OpenAI to transfer all of its assets to an independent nonprofit.

Another example is The Philadelphia Inquirer. The Pennsylvania newspaper became a for-profit public benefit corporation in 2016. It belongs to the Lenfest Institute, a nonprofit.

This structure allows Philadelphia’s biggest newspaper to attract investment without compromising its purpose – journalism serving the needs of its local communities. It’s become a model for potentially transforming the local news industry.

At this point, I believe that the public bears the burden of two governance failures. One is that OpenAI’s board has apparently abandoned its mission of safety. And the other is that the attorneys general of California and Delaware have let that happen.The Conversation

About the Author:

Alnoor Ebrahim, Professor of International Business, The Fletcher School & Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Programming
23 Feb

Supreme Court rules Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs unlawful

By JustMarkets 

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with gains. By the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) jumped by 0.47% (+0.38% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.69% (+1.10% for the week). The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.87% (+1.42% for the week). The positive dynamics were triggered by a Supreme Court decision that ruled the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs unlawful, sparking hopes for the return of approximately $175 billion to companies. Despite weak GDP data (+1.4%) and the President’s immediate promise to introduce a new 10% global tariff via executive order, investors focused on the short-term legal triumph. In the short term, traders are forced to balance optimism from court rulings against new regulatory risks that continue to pressure long-term yield expectations.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) declined to the 1.37 level against the US dollar, hitting a monthly low amid strengthening US bonds and a correction in the energy market. Despite the positive momentum from the US Supreme Court decision overturning global trade tariffs, Canada’s national currency came under pressure due to the widening yield gap with US assets. The Fed’s hawkish stance, supported by PCE inflation data at 3%, contrasts with the wait-and-see tactics of the Bank of Canada (BoC), which is holding the rate at 2.25% while the Domestic Consumer Price Index slows to 2.6%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated a confident rally, strengthening past the 17.15 per dollar mark, its best performance in a year and a half. The main driver of optimism was the US Supreme Court decision, which annulled the Trump administration’s global tariffs, thereby eliminating a critical risk for Mexico’s export sector. Investors remain focused on the policy of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), whose strategy of maintaining high interest rates continues to provide significant support to the peso amid fading trade uncertainty.

On Monday, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $65,000, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks. Pressure on the market intensified amid renewed concerns surrounding US tariff policy, which triggered volatility in global markets. Recently, Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have shown weak dynamics compared to other asset classes.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.87% (+1.09% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.39% (+2.31% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.94% (+2.47% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.56% (+2.30% for the week). European stock indices started the week with a decline amid intensifying trade confrontation with the US. Investors are reacting to Donald Trump’s decision to raise the announced global levy from 10% to 15%, the maximum level allowed under the 1974 law, after the US Supreme Court blocked his previous protectionist executive orders. The EU’s reaction was immediate: Brussels called on Washington to respect previously reached agreements and threatened to freeze the ratification of current trade agreements until legal clarifications are received from the American side. Despite assurances from US officials about maintaining the status quo for key partners, supply chain uncertainty is driving traders out of risky assets.

WTI oil prices ended the week with a confident gain of 5%, stabilizing around $66 per barrel. The main catalyst for the rally was a sharp increase in geopolitical risks: Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran and a massive buildup of the US military presence in the Middle East sparked fears regarding the stability of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Since Iran accounts for about 3% of global production, a potential conflict threatens significant volumes of crude, forcing investors to price in a high risk premium. Traders continue to closely monitor Tehran’s 15-day deadline, expecting further volatility depending on the outcome of nuclear negotiations.

US natural gas (XNG) prices ended Friday’s trading with a sharp jump above $3.1 per MMBtu, gaining more than 4% amid expected cold weather in the Northeast. Despite this local spike, quotes showed negative dynamics for the full week, losing about 4% in value. The main pressure on the market is exerted by a significant increase in production across the Lower 48 states, which in February closely approached the historical highs of December, reaching 108.7 billion cubic feet per day, offsetting concerns about supply shortages. Even maintaining record LNG export volumes cannot fully compensate for excessive domestic production and subdued heating demand, which limits the potential for a long-term price recovery.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.68% over the trading week, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade due to the Lunar New Year celebrations, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) depreciated by 3.06% during the short week, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.52% over the 5 days.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index showed an impressive 2.4% gain at Monday’s opening, reaching 27,056 points. Optimism swept through all sectors amid expectations for the reopening of mainland China markets after the Lunar New Year holiday. Investors interpreted Trump’s new 15% tariff as a measure that could unexpectedly play into Beijing’s hands by strengthening China’s position in global trade alliances. The Hong Kong market is currently acting as a leading indicator, pricing in a scenario where pragmatism in US-China relations outweighs tariff threats.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,909.51 +47.62 (+0.69%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,625.97 +230.81 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 25,260.69 +217.12 +(0.87%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,686.89 +59.85 (+0.56%)

USD Index 97.79 −0.14% (−0.14%)

News feed for: 2026.02.23

  • Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2); – SGD (MED)
  • German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Mexico GDP (q/q) at 14:00 (GMT+2); – MXN (MED)
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2). – EUR (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
21 Feb

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen, USD Index Bets into Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, AUD & CAD

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (32,061 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,722 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (12,550 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,378 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,057 contracts), the Brazilian Real (681 contracts) and Bitcoin (621 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-16,594 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,825 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-829 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-94 contracts) registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen, USD Index Bets into Bullish Positions

Highlighting the currency data this week, there were strong gains by the Japanese Yen, the Australian Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar while the US Dollar Index saw its first bullish position in quite a while.

The Japanese yen speculator position this week rose by over +32,000 weekly contracts. This was the highest jump in one-week contracts since October. The Japanese weekly speculator contracts have now risen for five consecutive weeks and in seven out of the last nine weeks. This positive sentiment has brought the Japanese yen net speculator position back into a bullish level with a total net standing of 12,955 contracts this week. This is the first positive week out of the last six weeks for the Japanese yen position in the FOREX markets. The Japanese yen has continued to be a subdued currency against the US dollar and saw a shortfall this week. The USD/JPY currency pair this week closed above the 155.00 level, which remains near historic Japanese yen weakness. However, this currency pair has bounced off of resistance at the 160.00 level for the third time in the past year.

The Australian Dollar speculator position continues to improve week to week. This week’s gain was over +12,000 contracts, and the Australian Dollar speculator position has now risen for 12 consecutive weeks. The spec position has jumped by over +130,000 contracts in the past 12 weeks, which has brought the position from a -84,176 contracts on November 25th to this week’s total of 45,931 net contracts. The Australian Dollar speculator level had been so consistently bearish that we have not seen a net position above this week’s level since October of 2017. In the forex markets, the Australian Dollar keeps chugging along higher against the US Dollar and this week closed above the 0.7075 level, marking the highest close since 2023. The Australian Dollar is higher by approximately 6% since the beginning of 2026.

Next up, the Canadian Dollar has also been on a rise as the speculator position has now risen for five consecutive weeks and has been higher in 10 out of the last 12 weeks. In just these last 12 weeks alone, the speculator position has surged by +176,240 contracts, taking the overall net position from a super bearish total of -150,414 net contracts on November 25th to this week’s bullish position of 25,826 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar has also been modestly rising in the currency markets against the US Dollar. Since November, the CAD is up by approximately 3% and the CAD currently trades just below its 200-week moving average at the 0.7312 exchange rate.

Next up, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen four consecutive weekly gains in speculator positions and has now seen higher speculator bets on a weekly basis in 11 out of the past 12 weeks. This week’s gain brought the overall USD Index net positioning to a small bullish position of just +328 contracts. This is the first bullish position since June of 2025, a span of 36 weeks. In the foreign exchange markets this week, the USD Index was higher by almost 1% on the week, but price gains were rejected around the 98.00 resistance level. Since the start of 2025, the DXY is down by approximately 11% and currently, the DXY has overhead resistance at 98.00, while looking lower around the 96.50 level, there has been strong support found.

U.S. Dollar Index Leads Price Gains This Week

The U.S. Dollar Index was the highest riser over the past five days, with a 1.01% increase on the week. The Mexican Peso was marginally higher with a 0.22% increase, followed by the Australian Dollar, which rose by 0.12%.

On the downside, the biggest decline was seen by Bitcoin which fell by -1.58% followed by the Japanese Yen, which dipped by -1.49%. The British Pound Sterling was lower by -1.23% followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which declined by -1.10%, and the Swiss Franc, which fell by -0.94%. The Euro dipped by -0.74% while the Canadian Dollar was lower by -0.40%, and the Brazilian Real saw a modestly lower return by -0.24%.

Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Canadian Dollar (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (95 percent), Bitcoin (87 percent) and the Mexican Peso (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is the lone currency in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (22 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (25 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.2 percent)
EuroFX (95.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (97.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (94.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (24.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (68.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (68.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (63.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (62.5 percent)
Bitcoin (87.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (74.2 percent)

Bitcoin & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (50 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (30 percent), the US Dollar Index (11 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-5 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (11.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.7 percent)
EuroFX (4.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-5.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (1.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (24.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (35.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-14.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-7.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.2 percent)
Bitcoin (50.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (32.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.026.77.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.724.111.3
– Net Position:328694-1,022
– Gross Longs:15,4167,0941,996
– Gross Shorts:15,0886,4003,018
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.058.518.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.2-10.1-7.1

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 174,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 180,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.053.110.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.078.04.7
– Net Position:174,480-227,67753,197
– Gross Longs:311,549487,21996,673
– Gross Shorts:137,069714,89643,476
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.23.686.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.4-4.00.4

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.348.213.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.132.411.8
– Net Position:-42,40437,6544,750
– Gross Longs:82,015115,02232,847
– Gross Shorts:124,41977,36828,097
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.674.965.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.03.39.0

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 32,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.440.011.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.844.610.1
– Net Position:12,955-16,1683,213
– Gross Longs:143,172141,76639,166
– Gross Shorts:130,217157,93435,953
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.346.845.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.1-1.0-0.4

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.568.720.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.228.418.3
– Net Position:-40,88138,5962,285
– Gross Longs:10,07265,77319,844
– Gross Shorts:50,95327,17717,559
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.162.488.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.2-4.614.5

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.042.914.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.256.811.9
– Net Position:25,826-30,3744,548
– Gross Longs:89,60193,65330,479
– Gross Shorts:63,775124,02725,931
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.058.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.9-28.40.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.032.317.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.161.26.8
– Net Position:45,931-73,98928,058
– Gross Longs:117,82082,85445,601
– Gross Shorts:71,889156,84317,543
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:42.3-36.912.5

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -94 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.376.36.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.330.14.7
– Net Position:-35,01333,7091,304
– Gross Longs:11,18355,7194,750
– Gross Shorts:46,19622,0103,446
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.972.069.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-11.828.1

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.639.13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.578.21.2
– Net Position:84,122-88,6654,543
– Gross Longs:128,19788,4497,231
– Gross Shorts:44,075177,1142,688
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.232.048.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.414.31.6

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.627.36.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.168.20.7
– Net Position:31,643-36,4744,831
– Gross Longs:58,39524,2715,456
– Gross Shorts:26,75260,745625
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.4 to 18.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.035.248.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.66.111.2

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:71.12.05.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.19.34.7
– Net Position:1,638-1,70769
– Gross Longs:16,5934631,163
– Gross Shorts:14,9552,1701,094
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.418.640.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:50.3-52.6-0.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
21 Feb

Speculator Extremes: AUD, CAD, Steel & Palladium lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the AUD speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 42 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 45,931 net contracts this week with a boost of 12,722 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Canadian Dollar

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in also tied in the extreme standings this week. The CAD speculator level is now at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score was a jump by 30 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 25,826 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 12,550 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 12 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 11,736 net contracts this week with a small gain of 344 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Euro speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the EUR speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4 percentage points this week with the overall speculator position sitting at 174,480 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,825 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Palladium speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Palladium speculator level also sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -1 percentage point this week.

The speculator position was 492 net contracts this week with a small edge lower by -21 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table

Sugar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Sugar speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -19 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -253,592 net contracts this week with a decline of -18,191 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cocoa speculator level is close to the bottom at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a slide by -19 percentage points this week while the speculator position totaled -17,618 net contracts this week following a small boost by 1,328 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Natural Gas speculator level resides at just a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -14 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position totaled -185,812 net contracts this week after a decrease of -13,947 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Cotton speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Cotton speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position totaled -55,733 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,407 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

Extreme Bearish Leader
Next, the Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the CHF speculator level residing at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small dip by -1 percentage points this week and the speculator position totaled -40,881 net contracts this week following an increase of 1,378 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions
21 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Copper Speculator Bets rebound after 7 Down Weeks

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,458 contracts) with Silver (1,048 contracts), Steel (344 contracts) and Platinum (263 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-97 contracts) and with Palladium (-21 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Copper Bets rebound after 7 Down Weeks

Highlighting the speculator bets this week was copper, which rebounded with a weekly gain of +13,458 net contracts. Copper had seen lower speculator bets in the preceding seven consecutive weeks, which had dropped the Copper speculator position to the lowest level since October.

This week’s positive rebound shoots the overall net speculator position back up over +59,000 contracts, the most bullish level since December 30th. Overall, Copper speculator positions have been consistently in a bullish standing, dating back to March 5th of 2024, a span of 102 consecutive bullish weeks.

Silver leads Metals Markets Price Performance this week

Silver bounced back this week with a 5.62% gain over the past five days. This was followed by Platinum which rose by 4.94% over that same period.

Gold was higher by 3.82% while Palladium showed a rise of 3.67%, and rounding out the gainers was Copper with a 1.86% increase.

Steel was virtually unchanged on the week with a -0.03% dip.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (97 percent) and Palladium (95 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Gold (36 percent), Platinum (42 percent) and Silver (42 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (36.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.3 percent)
Silver (42.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (41.0 percent)
Copper (88.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (76.0 percent)
Platinum (41.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.2 percent)
Palladium (95.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.3 percent)
Steel (96.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (95.1 percent)

 

Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (12 percent) and Copper (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-28 percent), Platinum (-14 percent) and Silver (-7 percent) are the leaders of the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-27.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-29.2 percent)
Silver (-7.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.5 percent)
Copper (1.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.0 percent)
Platinum (-14.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-14.9 percent)
Palladium (-0.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.2 percent)
Steel (11.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 159,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -97 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.421.712.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.170.03.7
– Net Position:159,915-196,78236,867
– Gross Longs:213,43288,23751,821
– Gross Shorts:53,517285,01914,954
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.3 to 13.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.357.373.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.830.2-22.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.927.921.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.660.17.7
– Net Position:24,003-42,34718,344
– Gross Longs:36,62636,72928,514
– Gross Shorts:12,62379,07610,170
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.454.354.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.011.6-22.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 59,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.933.58.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.160.63.6
– Net Position:59,331-73,88614,555
– Gross Longs:89,69991,57324,327
– Gross Shorts:30,368165,4599,772
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.6 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.56.889.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.4-1.62.1

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.628.713.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.855.54.3
– Net Position:12,347-18,5366,189
– Gross Longs:28,82619,9139,175
– Gross Shorts:16,47938,4492,986
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.958.669.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.413.84.4

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.136.114.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.245.97.8
– Net Position:492-1,6341,142
– Gross Longs:7,5776,0662,447
– Gross Shorts:7,0857,7001,305
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.27.759.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.64.3-21.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.556.81.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.290.00.5
– Net Position:11,736-12,085349
– Gross Longs:14,36220,654537
– Gross Shorts:2,62632,739188
– Long to Short Ratio:5.5 to 10.6 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.93.480.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.8-11.51.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
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