InvestMacro

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by WTI Crude Oil

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (16,865 contracts) with Gasoline (2,538 contracts), Brent Oil (1,496 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (30 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-16,397 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-474 contracts) also seeing slightly lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas leads Energy Price Changes

The energy markets price changes were mixed this week. Natural Gas was the highest mover with a muted 0.37% gain over the past 5 days. Natural Gas has been down -7.12% over the past 30 days while dropping a sharp -31.52% over the past 90 days.

Next up, Heating Oil was higher by 0.25% this week. Heating Oil is up 2.65% over the past 30 days while seeing a gain of 10.57% over the past 90 days.

WTI Crude Oil edged higher this week by 0.22% and has been up 8.73% over the past 90 days.

Brent Crude Oil was modestly lower by -0.38% over the past week. Brent Crude Oil has been up by approximately 1.5% in the past 30 days and is higher by 9% in the past 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next lowest with a -0.43% return on the week while Gasoline saw the highest decline on the week with a -0.81% dip. Gasoline has been higher by 3.5% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 6% over the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

On the downside, WTI Crude (6.3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is the only market currently in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (6.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Natural Gas (53.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (66.3 percent)
Gasoline (44.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (40.9 percent)
Heating Oil (68.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (44.7 percent)

Gasoline tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gasoline (13.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Heating Oil (0.9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-16.1 percent), Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) and the Bloomberg Index (-9.8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-16.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-27.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-3.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-5.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.8 percent)
Gasoline (13.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.7 percent)
Heating Oil (0.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-6.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-9.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-10.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 98,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	41.8	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	47.7	2.5
– Net Position:	98,709	-114,749	16,040
– Gross Longs:	278,276	820,579	64,779
– Gross Shorts:	179,567	935,328	48,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	95.5	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	19.9	-26.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	43.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	32.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-24,699	23,024	1,675
– Gross Longs:	40,627	88,732	8,347
– Gross Shorts:	65,326	65,708	6,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	54.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	3.5	3.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	31.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	25.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-110,944	104,419	6,525
– Gross Longs:	283,441	520,328	52,273
– Gross Shorts:	394,385	415,909	45,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	54.8	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	22.3	-29.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	49.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	64.3	4.3
– Net Position:	43,659	-54,863	11,204
– Gross Longs:	86,260	183,418	27,051
– Gross Shorts:	42,601	238,281	15,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	49.3	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-17.7	31.1

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	44.5	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	56.1	7.4
– Net Position:	18,983	-45,749	26,766
– Gross Longs:	56,751	176,526	56,062
– Gross Shorts:	37,768	222,275	29,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	23.0	94.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-8.2	22.2

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	73.2	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	67.1	3.7
– Net Position:	-13,749	13,449	300
– Gross Longs:	33,754	162,851	8,485
– Gross Shorts:	47,503	149,402	8,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	54.8	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	9.5	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

21 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by Sugar & Corn

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall decisively higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (33,266 contracts) with Corn (18,075 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,621 contracts), Soybeans (12,864 contracts), Wheat (9,980 contracts), Cotton (8,685 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,351 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,514 contracts), Coffee (1,659 contracts) and Cocoa (1,391 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets was Live Cattle with a drop by -4,952 contracts on the week.

Live Cattle leads Softs Price Changes this week

Soft commodities market changes this week were overall lower. Live Cattle was the price change leader over the past 5 days with a gain of 1.05%. Live Cattle is up by almost 2% over the last 30 days and is higher by 12.43% over the past 90 days.

Wheat comes in second with a 0.36% gain on the week. However, Wheat has been down by -2.89% over the past 30 days and lower by -4.21% over the past 90 days. Next up, Cocoa was minimally higher by 0.25% on the week. Cocoa has been cruising higher by 20% over the past 30 days and is up by 21.46% over the past 90 days.

Cotton was down by -0.43% this week followed by Corn which was lower by -1.01% while Soybeans fell by -1.48% and Soybean Meal was down by -1.99%. Sugar dipped by -2.17% this week followed by Lean Hogs which saw a decline by -2.19% and Soybean Oil dropped by -3.09%.

Coffee came in as the biggest loser on the week with a -7.03% decline. However, Coffee has been higher by 26.89% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 5% over the past 90 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (99 percent) and Live Cattle (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (68 percent), Coffee (65 percent) and Soybeans (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (8 percent), Cotton (12 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and the Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.8 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (64.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (63.2 percent)
Soybeans (55.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (16.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.3 percent)
Live Cattle (78.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (96.5 percent)
Cotton (11.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.6 percent)
Cocoa (18.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.0 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.1 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (17 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (14 percent), Coffee (11 percent) and Corn (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-7 percent), Live Cattle (-5 percent) and Cotton (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.8 percent)
Sugar (-7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.4 percent)
Soybeans (15.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-15.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-29.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.1 percent)
Cotton (-4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.9 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.0 percent)
Wheat (5.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	44.4	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	40.0	10.4
– Net Position:	-36,169	68,373	-32,204
– Gross Longs:	346,750	679,858	126,706
– Gross Shorts:	382,919	611,485	158,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	67.5	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-12.1	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -106,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 33,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	56.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	43.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-106,344	112,398	-6,054
– Gross Longs:	175,246	514,370	75,162
– Gross Shorts:	281,590	401,972	81,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	94.2	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	4.8	9.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	37.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	62.1	3.5
– Net Position:	40,176	-43,585	3,409
– Gross Longs:	63,063	65,689	9,579
– Gross Shorts:	22,887	109,274	6,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	35.4	75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-13.1	48.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	56.6	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	57.5	7.4
– Net Position:	21,187	-8,293	-12,894
– Gross Longs:	167,351	507,053	53,482
– Gross Shorts:	146,164	515,346	66,376
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	41.8	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-17.1	7.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	45.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	54.2	4.4
– Net Position:	47,501	-55,005	7,504
– Gross Longs:	133,827	292,585	35,467
– Gross Shorts:	86,326	347,590	27,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	33.6	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	15.8	-17.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	51.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	46.5	5.3
– Net Position:	-44,608	29,001	15,607
– Gross Longs:	118,194	317,392	48,569
– Gross Shorts:	162,802	288,391	32,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	86.5	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-13.4	-11.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 101,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	30.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	51.8	13.3
– Net Position:	101,726	-83,348	-18,378
– Gross Longs:	180,326	118,626	33,510
– Gross Shorts:	78,600	201,974	51,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.8	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.5	14.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 95,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	25.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	48.4	7.7
– Net Position:	95,098	-88,856	-6,242
– Gross Longs:	184,169	96,648	23,341
– Gross Shorts:	89,071	185,504	29,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.1	0.3	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-16.6	-8.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	49.9	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	33.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-42,649	42,601	48
– Gross Longs:	70,118	129,115	12,948
– Gross Shorts:	112,767	86,514	12,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	89.1	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	3.0	14.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	47.0	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	58.6	8.2
– Net Position:	8,337	-11,290	2,953
– Gross Longs:	24,775	45,550	10,941
– Gross Shorts:	16,438	56,840	7,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	82.4	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.1	-3.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -72,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,139 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	36.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	20.6	6.9
– Net Position:	-72,159	73,100	-941
– Gross Longs:	127,443	167,332	30,903
– Gross Shorts:	199,602	94,232	31,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	64.4	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-7.0	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

19 Sep

Wall Street indices close at record highs. Norges Bank cuts key rate

By JustMarkets

By the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.27%. The S&P500 Index (US500) gained 0.48%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology Index closed higher by 0.94%. All three major Wall Street indices closed at record highs on Thursday. Investors welcomed the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut and the prospect of two additional reductions, interpreting the move as a shift toward supporting growth rather than strictly controlling inflation. Technology stocks led the rally, with Intel shares soaring more than 22% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in a joint chip development, and Nvidia shares gained 3.5%. Economically, initial jobless claims fell sharply to 231,000 from a four-year high, easing some concerns about labor market weakness.

The Mexican peso fell to 18.35 per US dollar, retreating from its strongest level since July 2024 at 18.29. In Mexico, headline inflation in August was 3.57% and core inflation was around 4.23%, which is relatively subdued but still keeps Banxico cautious, limiting aggressive rate cuts. Meanwhile, growth forecasts have softened, industrial production has shown a contraction, and the outlook for private spending has cooled, which reduces demand for peso-denominated assets.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.35%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed up 0.87%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.32%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively on Thursday at 0.21%. The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4%, with two members voting for a 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%. The MPC also voted 7-2 to slow quantitative tightening, reducing gold holdings by £70 billion over the next year to £488 billion. Policymakers noted progress in disinflation after past shocks, supported by a restrictive policy, although inflation remains above the target. The CPI was 3.8% in August, and is expected to rise slightly in September before returning to the 2% level. Looking ahead, the committee emphasized the need for a gradual, data-driven approach without a predetermined path for rate cuts, maintaining flexibility to respond to future developments.

In September 2025, Norges Bank reduced its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated that it would continue to lower rates next year if the economy develops as anticipated. This was the second rate cut in the last five years, following a brief pause in August. The bank’s committee noted that the current policy is restrictive, helping to cool the economy and reduce inflation.

US natural gas prices fell by more than 3% to below $2.99/MMBtu after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected increase in storage inventories. In the week leading up to September 12, companies injected 90 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, exceeding forecasts of 81 billion cubic feet, compared to 56 billion cubic feet a year earlier and a five-year average of 74 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets were mostly lower yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.15%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.44%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.83% yesterday.

In September 2025, the Bank of Japan left its key short-term rate unchanged at 0.5%, keeping borrowing costs at their highest level since 2008 and meeting market expectations. The decision, made by a 7-2 vote, came amid uncertainty about Japan’s political outlook and the impact of US tariffs. It followed the US Fed’s rate cut earlier this week: the first since December. During Friday’s meeting, the Bank of Japan announced that it would begin selling its holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs). The board noted that the Japanese economy has recovered at a moderate pace despite some weaknesses. Private consumption remained robust due to improved employment and income conditions. Inflation expectations rose moderately, with the core CPI projected to increase gradually.

The New Zealand dollar fluctuated around $0.598 on Friday after falling more than 1% in the previous session to a nearly two-week low. The drop was fueled by a sharper-than-expected economic downturn, which increased bets on further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank. GDP fell by 0.9% in the June quarter, which was worse than the forecasted 0.3% decline. This followed a revised growth of 0.9% in the previous quarter. The contraction was primarily due to weakness in the construction and manufacturing sectors, as well as a decline in exports. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with the probability of a more significant 50-basis-point reduction estimated at around 25%. They also anticipate an additional 71 basis points of easing, up from 50 basis points previously. Additionally, data released today indicated that New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed to NZ$1.2 billion in August, compared to NZ$2.3 billion in the same month last year. However, it still exceeded market expectations of NZ$0.7 billion.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,631.96 +31.61 (+0.48%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,142.42 +124.10 (+0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 23,674.53 +315.35 (+1.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,228.11 +19.74 (+0.21%)

USD index 97.38 +0.51 (+0.52%)

News feed for: 2025.09.19

New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

19 Sep

EUR/USD Corrects Lower in Post-Fed Pause

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair extended its decline on Friday, retreating further following the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The US dollar found support as the Fed’s rhetoric proved less dovish than markets had anticipated.

While the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points and signalled two additional cuts in 2025, it projected only one further reduction in 2026, tempering expectations for more aggressive easing. Chair Jerome Powell described the decision as a “risk management” response to a softening labour market, emphasising that the Fed saw “no need to rush” into further moves.

The dollar drew additional strength from initial jobless claims data, which fell to 231,000 – below forecasts of 241,000 and well under the previous week’s revised figure of 264,000.

Earlier in the week, eurozone inflation held steady at 2.0% year-on-year in August, unchanged from July and slightly better than the 2.1% forecast.

Despite this week’s pullback, the broader trend for EUR/USD remains bullish.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range around 1.1800 USD before breaking downward. The pair is now extending its decline towards 1.1680 USD. Once this target is reached, a corrective rebound towards 1.1800 USD may follow. The MACD indicator supports this view: its signal line remains above zero but is trending firmly lower, reflecting building near-term selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed a downward move to 1.1777 USD and a corrective bounce to 1.1845 USD. The market is now forming a new downward structure towards 1.1720 USD, with further downside potential to 1.1680 USD. A brief correction towards 1.1800 USD is possible before any renewed decline towards 1.1630 USD, and eventually 1.1550 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms the near-term bearish momentum, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downward towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is undergoing a technical correction after the Fed tempered expectations for aggressive easing. While the dollar has found near-term support, the euro’s underlying fundamentals remain steady, with inflation under control and growth concerns limited. The pair’s broader uptrend is likely to resume once the current corrective phase concludes, though a deeper retracement cannot be ruled out if US data continues to surprise to the upside. Traders will be watching next week’s eurozone PMI and US PCE data for fresh directional catalysts.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Sep

Scams and frauds: Here are the tactics criminals use on you in the age of AI and cryptocurrencies

By Rahul Telang, Carnegie Mellon University

Scams are nothing new – fraud has existed as long as human greed. What changes are the tools.

Scammers thrive on exploiting vulnerable, uninformed users, and they adapt to whatever technologies or trends dominate the moment. In 2025, that means AI, cryptocurrencies and stolen personal data are their weapons of choice.

And, as always, the duty, fear and hope of their targets provide openings. Today, duty often means following instructions from bosses or co-workers, who scammers can impersonate. Fear is that a loved one, who scammers also can impersonate, is in danger. And hope is often for an investment scheme or job opportunity to pay off.

AI-powered scams and deepfakes

Artificial intelligence is no longer niche – it’s cheap, accessible and effective. While businesses use AI for advertising and customer support, scammers exploit the same tools to mimic reality, with disturbing precision.

Deepfake scams use high-tech tools and old-fashioned emotional manipulation.

Criminals are using AI-generated audio or video to impersonate CEOs, managers or even family members in distress. Employees have been tricked into transferring money or leaking sensitive data. Over 105,000 such deepfake attacks were recorded in the U.S. in 2024, costing more than US$200 million in the first quarter of 2025 alone. Victims often cannot distinguish synthetic voices or faces from real ones.

Fraudsters are also using emotional manipulation. The scammers make phone calls or send convincing AI-written texts posing as relatives or friends in distress. Elderly victims in particular fall prey when they believe a grandchild or other family member is in urgent trouble. The Federal Trade Commission has outlined how scammers use fake emergencies to pose as relatives.

Cryptocurrency scams

Crypto remains the Wild West of finance — fast, unregulated and ripe for exploitation.

Pump-and-dump scammers artificially inflate the price of a cryptocurrency through hype on social media to lure investors with promises of huge returns – the pump – and then sell off their holdings – the dump – leaving victims with worthless tokens.

Pig butchering is a hybrid of romance scams and crypto fraud. Scammers build trust over weeks or months before persuading victims to invest in fake crypto platforms. Once the scammers have extracted enough money from the victim, they vanish.

Pig-butchering scams lure people into fake online relationships, often with devastating consequences.

Scammers also use cryptocurrencies as a means of extracting money from people in impersonation scams and other forms of fraud. For example, scammers direct victims to bitcoin ATMs to deposit large sums of cash and convert it to the untraceable cryptocurrency as payment for fictitious fines.

Phishing, smishing, tech support and jobs

Old scams don’t die; they evolve.

Phishing and smishing have been around for years. Victims are tricked into clicking links in emails or text messages, leading to malware downloads, credential theft or ransomware attacks. AI has made these lures eerily realistic, mimicking corporate tone, grammar and even video content.

Tech support scams often start with pop-ups on computer screens that warn of viruses or identity theft, urging users to call a number. Sometimes they begin with a direct cold call to the victim. Once the victim is on a call with the fake tech support, the scammers convince victims to grant remote access to their supposedly compromised computers. Once inside, scammers install malware, steal data, demand payment or all three.

Fake websites and listings are another current type of scam. Fraudulent sites impersonating universities or ticket sellers trick victims into paying for fake admissions, concerts or goods.

One example is when a website for “Southeastern Michigan University” came online and started offering details about admission. There is no such university. Eastern Michigan University filed a complaint that Southeastern Michigan University was copying its website and defrauding unsuspecting victims.

The rise of remote and gig work has opened new fraud avenues.

Victims are offered fake jobs with promises of high pay and flexible hours. In reality, scammers extract “placement fees” or harvest sensitive personal data such as Social Security numbers and bank details, which are later used for identity theft.

How you can protect yourself

Technology has changed, but the basic principles remain the same: Never click on suspicious links or download attachments from unknown senders, and enter personal information only if you are sure that the website is legitimate. Avoid using third-party apps or links. Legitimate businesses have apps or real websites of their own.

Enable two-factor authentication wherever possible. It provides security against stolen passwords. Keep software updated to patch security holes. Most software allows for automatic update or warns about applying a patch.

Remember that a legitimate business will never ask for personal information or a money transfer. Such requests are a red flag.

Relationships are a trickier matter. The state of California provides details on how people can avoid being victims of pig butchering.

Technology has supercharged age-old fraud. AI makes deception virtually indistinguishable from reality, crypto enables anonymous theft, and the remote-work era expands opportunities to trick people. The constant: Scammers prey on trust, urgency and ignorance. Awareness and skepticism remain your best defense.

About the Author:

Rahul Telang, Professor of Information Systems, Carnegie Mellon University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Cryptocurrencies Opinions

18 Sep

The discovery of a gravitational wave 10 years ago shook astrophysics – these ripples in spacetime continue to reveal dark objects in the cosmos

By Chad Hanna, Penn State

Scientists first detected ripples in space known as gravitational waves from the merger of two black holes in September 2015. This discovery marked the culmination of a 100-year quest to prove one of Einstein’s predictions.

Two years after this watershed moment in physics came a second late-summer breakthrough in August 2017: the first detection of gravitational waves accompanied by electromagnetic waves from the merger of two neutron stars.

Gravitational waves are exciting to scientists because they provide a completely new view of the universe. Conventional astronomy relies on electromagnetic waves – like light – but gravitational waves are an independent messenger that can emanate from objects that don’t emit light. Gravitational wave detection has unlocked the universe’s dark side, giving scientists access to phenomena never observed before.

As a gravitational wave physicist with over 20 years of research experience in the LIGO Scientific Collaboration, I have seen firsthand how these discoveries have transformed scientists’ knowledge of the universe.

This summer, in 2025, scientists with the LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration also marked a new milestone. After a long hiatus to upgrade its equipment, this collaboration just released an updated list of gravitational wave discoveries. The discoveries on this list provide researchers with an unprecedented view of the universe featuring, among other things, the clearest gravitational wave detection yet.

A map showing five yellow points indicating operational gravitational wave observatories: two in the US, two in Europe and one in Japan, and one orange point in India indicating a planned observatory. — The more operational gravitational-wave observatories there are around the globe, the easier it is to pin down the locations and sources of gravitational waves coming from space.
Caltech/MIT/LIGO Lab

What are gravitational waves?

Albert Einstein first predicted the existence of gravitational waves in 1916. According to Einstein’s theory of gravity, known as general relativity, massive, dense celestial objects bend space and time.

When these massive objects, like black holes and neutron stars – the end product of a supernova – orbit around each other, they form a binary system. The motion from this system dynamically stretches and squeezes the space around these objects, sending gravitational waves across the universe. These waves ever so slightly change the distance between other objects in the universe as they pass.

Detecting gravitational waves requires measuring distances very carefully. The LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration operates four gravitational wave observatories: two LIGO observatories in the U.S., the Virgo observatory in Italy and the KAGRA observatory in Japan.

Each detector has L-shaped arms that span over two miles. Each arm contains a cavity full of reflected laser light that precisely measures the distance between two mirrors.

As a gravitational wave passes, it changes the distance between the mirrors by 10^-18 meters — just 0.1% of the diameter of a proton. Astronomers can measure how the mirrors oscillate to track the orbit of black holes.

These tiny changes in distance encode a tremendous amount of information about their source. They can tell us the masses of each black hole or neutron star, their location and whether they are spinning on their own axis.

An L-shaped facility with two long arms extending out from a central building. — The LIGO detector in Hanford, Wash., uses lasers to measure the minuscule stretching of space caused by a gravitational wave.
LIGO Laboratory

A neutron star-black hole merger

As mentioned previously, the LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration recently reported 128 new binary mergers from data taken between May 24, 2023, and Jan. 16, 2024 – which more than doubles the previous count.

Among these new discoveries is a neutron star–black hole merger. This merger consists of a relatively light black hole with mass between 2.5 and 4.5 times the mass of our Sun paired with a neutron star that is 1.4 times the mass of our Sun.

In this kind of system, scientists theorize that the black hole tears the neutron star apart before swallowing it, which releases electromagnetic waves. Sadly, the collaboration didn’t manage to detect any such electromagnetic waves for this particular system.

Detecting an electromagnetic counterpart to a black hole tearing apart a neutron star is among the holy grails of astronomy and astrophysics. These electromagnetic waves will provide the rich datasets required for understanding both the extreme conditions present in matter, and extreme gravity. Scientists hope for better fortune the next time the detectors spot such a system.

A massive binary and clear gravitational waves

In July 2025, the LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration also announced they’d found the most massive binary black hole merger ever detected. The combined mass of this system is more than 200 times the mass of our Sun. And, one of the two black holes in this system likely has a mass that scientists previously assumed could not be produced from the collapse of a single star.

When two astrophysical objects – like black holes – merge, they send out gravitational waves.

The most recent discovery announced by the LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration, in September 2025, is the clearest gravitational wave observation to date. This event is a near clone of the first gravitational wave observation from 10 years ago, but because LIGO’s detectors have improved over the last decade, it stands out above the noise three times as much as the first discovery.

Because the observed gravitational wave signal is so clear, scientists could confirm that the final black hole that formed from the merger emitted gravitational waves exactly as it should according to general relativity.

They also showed that the surface area of the final black hole was greater than the surface area of the initial black holes combined, which implies that the merger increased the entropy, according to foundational work from Stephen Hawking and Jacob Bekenstein. Entropy measures how disordered a system is. All physical interactions are expected to increase the disorder of the universe, according to thermodynamics. This recent discovery showed that black holes obey their own laws similar to thermodynamics.

The beginning of a longer legacy

The LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA collaboration’s fourth observing run is ongoing and will last through November. My colleagues and I anticipate more than 100 additional discoveries within the coming year.

New observations starting in 2028 may bring the tally of binary mergers to as many as 1,000 by around 2030, if the collaboration keeps its funding.

Gravitational wave observation is still in its infancy. A proposed upgrade to LIGO called A# may increase the gravitational wave detection rate by another factor of 10. Proposed new observatories called Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope that may be built in 10 to 20 years would increase the rate of gravitational wave detection by 1,000, relative to the current rate, by further reducing noise in the detector.

About the Author:

Chad Hanna, Professor of Physics, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

18 Sep

The US Fed and the Bank of Canada have cut interest rates as expected

By JustMarkets

By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.57%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.10%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed lower by 0.33%. US stocks closed mixed as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s outlook following an expected 25-basis-point rate cut. The median FOMC prognosis suggests two more rate cuts this year, but strong growth, a low unemployment rate, and an upward revision of core inflation have raised doubts about the pace of easing in 2026. Chairman Powell also showed caution, refraining from expressing confidence in further rate cuts. The Fed expects to cut rates by another 50 basis points by the end of 2025 and by a quarter-point in 2026, which is slightly more than anticipated in June. GDP growth expectations were revised upward for 2025 (1.6% vs 1.4% in the Jun prognosis), 2026 (1.8% vs 1.6%), and 2027 (1.9% vs 1.8%). PCE inflation this year is projected at 3%, the same as in June, but expectations for 2026 were revised upward (2.6% vs 2.4%). The core PCE inflation expectations also remained at 3.1% for 2025 but were revised upward for 2026 to 2.6% from 2.4%. The unemployment rate is still expected to be 4.5% for 2025, but the projections for next year were revised downward to 4.4% from 4.5%. Meanwhile, technology stocks were under pressure, with shares of Avidia and Broadcom falling by 2.5% and 3.5% amid reports of Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chip purchases.

The Canadian dollar fell to 1.375 per US dollar after the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% and signaled that the easing campaign would continue. The move reflected a sharper-than-expected slowdown in activity, including a 1.6% contraction in Q2 GDP and a 27% drop in exports. The deteriorating labor market situation strengthened the case for policy easing: in August, net job losses and the unemployment rate rose to 7.1%, which reduced wage pressures and took the edge off inflation.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.40%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 0.24%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively at 0.14%. The Eurozone’s consumer price inflation for August 2025 was revised downward to 2.0% from a preliminary 2.1%, which is in line with the ECB’s target. Top gainers included Continental (+1.9%), Adidas (+1.7%), Bayer (+1.6%), and Infineon Technologies (+1.3%). In contrast, Commerzbank and Siemens Energy suffered the biggest losses, falling by 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $64 per barrel on Wednesday. European officials reported plans to accelerate the reduction of Russian fossil fuel imports and called for more decisive measures to increase economic pressure on Moscow. Additionally, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 9.3 million barrels last week, the largest drop in three months.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.25%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.63%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.78%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.67%.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, following the US Fed, lowered borrowing costs to 4.5%, the lowest since November 2022. Chief Executive Eddie Yue stated that the move should support the real estate market and the broader economy.

The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% at its September 2025 policy meeting. Since last September, the Central Bank has lowered rates by 150 basis points, bringing the key rate to its lowest level since October 2022. Recent data showed that in Q2, GDP grew by 5.12% y/y, the fastest pace in two years, and annual inflation in August fell to 2.31%. Earlier this week, the government unveiled a stimulus package worth around $1 billion for Q4 to accelerate GDP growth.

The Australian dollar traded around $0.665 on Thursday. Data showed that net employment in August fell by 5,400 against projections of a 21,500 increase, driven by a sharp reduction of 40,900 full-time jobs. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. Despite the weak data, markets imply only a 20% chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its September 30 meeting, with expectations for November rising to 70% as inflation remains above target and policymakers show caution.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.592 after weaker-than-expected GDP data spurred bets on interest rate cuts. New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.9%, worse than the expected contraction of 0.3%. Markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut to 2.75% at the Reserve Bank’s October meeting, with a 24% chance of a more significant half-percent cut.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,600.35 −6.41 (−0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,018.32 +260.42 (+0.57%)

DAX (DE40) 23,359.18 +29.94 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,208.37 +12.71 (+0.14%)

USD Index 96.98 +0.35 (+0.36%)

News feed for: 2025.09.18

New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
Norwegian Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

18 Sep

Fed rate cut is attempt to prevent recession without sending prices soaring

By Ryan Herzog, Gonzaga University

The Federal Reserve on Sept. 17, 2025, cut its target interest rate as it shifts focus from fighting inflation to supporting the choppy labor market.

As financial markets expected, the Fed lowered rates a quarter point to a range of 4% to 4.25%, its first cut since December 2024.

The Fed’s decision to begin cutting rates comes as evidence mounts that the U.S. labor market is losing momentum. The headline unemployment rate has stayed steady at near record lows, but the underlying trends are more concerning.

At the same time, the fight against inflation is not over yet. While a cooling jobs market could lead to a recession, cutting rates too much could drive inflation higher.

So if you’re the Fed, what do you do?

I’m an economist who tracks labor market data and monetary policy, examining how changes in hiring, wages and unemployment influence the Federal Reserve’s efforts to steer the economy. There’s an incredibly large amount of data the Fed, investors, economists like me and many others use to understand the state of the economy – and much of it often tells conflicting stories.

Here are some the data points I’ve been following most closely to better understand where the U.S. economy might go from here – and the tough choices the Fed has to make.

Underlying trouble in the labor market

The labor market looks stable on the surface, but more granular data tells a different story.

The unemployment rate has remained close to historic lows at 4.3% as of August 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But the number of long-term unemployed – people out of work for 27 weeks or longer – rose to 1.9 million in August, up 385,000 from a year earlier. These workers now make up 25.7% of all unemployed people, the highest share since February 2022. Persistent long-term joblessness often signals deeper cracks forming in the labor market.

At the same time, new claims for unemployment benefits are spiking. Initial claims for unemployment insurance – a leading indicator of labor market stress – jumped by 27,000 to 263,000 for the week ending Sept. 6, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That’s the sharpest increase in months and well above economists’ forecasts. It suggests layoffs are becoming more common.

We also got news that past payroll growth was overstated. In a process the Bureau of Labor Statistics undertakes annually to double-check its data, the bureau recently revised its jobs data downward from April 2024 through March 2025 by 911,000. In other words, the economy created roughly 75,000 fewer jobs per month than previously reported. This implies the labor market was weaker than it appeared all along.

Finally, workers are losing confidence. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported in August that the confidence of people who lost their jobs in finding another fell to its lowest level – 44.9% – since it started surveying consumers in June 2013. That’s another sign workers are feeling less secure about their prospects.

Taken together, these data points paint a clear picture: The labor market is not collapsing, but it is softening. That helps explain why the Fed is beginning to cut rates now – hoping to stimulate spending – before the job market breaks more sharply.

Tariffs are complicating the inflation data

Even as the labor market softens, tariffs are pushing certain prices higher than they otherwise would be, complicating the Federal Reserve’s effort to bring inflation down.

Government data shows that businesses have begun passing the costs of President Donald Trump’s new import tariffs to consumers. In August, clothing prices rose 0.5% and grocery prices rose 0.6%, with especially strong gains for tariff-sensitive items such as coffee.

Lower-income households are getting hit hardest because they spend more of their budget on imported goods, which tend to be the lower-cost items most affected by tariffs. A report from the Yale Budget Lab found that core goods prices are about 1.9% above pre-2025 trends as tariffs raise costs for basic items such as appliances and electronics.

Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, said recently that Trump’s tariffs have pushed inflation higher than CBO analysts had expected, even as overall economic activity has weakened since January.

Typically, a slowdown in the labor market is met with slower inflation. But while the CBO now projects that the tariffs will reduce the federal budget deficit by about US$4 trillion over the next decade – roughly $3.3 trillion in new revenue and $700 billion in lower debt service costs – but it will come at the cost of near-term upward pressure on prices.

This creates a difficult balancing act for the Fed: Cut rates too quickly, and tariff-driven price pressures could reignite inflation; move too slowly, and the softening labor market could tip into recession.

A narrow path to a soft landing

As it resumes cutting rates, the Federal Reserve is trying to thread a narrow needle – easing policy enough to keep the labor market from cracking while not reigniting inflation, which is proving stickier in part because of tariffs.

Markets are betting the Fed will keep cutting. The futures market is betting the Fed will cut rates by another half point by the end of the year. And the one-year Treasury yield has dropped about 150 basis points (1.5%) since June, signaling that investors expect a series of rate cuts through 2025 and into 2026.

At its latest meeting, the Fed signaled two more rate cuts in 2025 and at least one rate cut in 2026.

Such cuts would ultimately bring the federal funds rate closer to 3% and hopefully reduce 30-year mortgage rates to around 5% – from an average of 6.35% as of Sept. 11. If the labor market continues to weaken – with jobless claims climbing, payrolls revised down and more workers stuck in long-term unemployment – that expectation will likely harden into consensus.

But the path is far from certain. Cutting rates too quickly could cause inflation to spike, while going too slow could lead to further deterioration in the labor market. Either outcome would jeopardize the Fed’s credibility – whether by appearing unable to control prices or by allowing unemployment to rise unnecessarily. That would undermine its ability to influence markets and enforce its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.

Another tricky issue is Trump’s public campaign to push the Fed to cut rates – appearing to do his bidding could also undercut Fed credibility. For what it’s worth, the Sept. 17 rate cut appears driven less by politics than by economic data. The Fed itself was projecting a year ago that rates would be much lower today than they actually are, suggesting it’s been following the data.

The economy appears to be slowing but remains resilient, which is why the Fed is likely to move gradually. The risk is that the window for a soft landing is closing. The coming months will determine whether the Fed can ease early enough to avoid recession, or whether it has already waited too long.

About the Author:

Ryan Herzog, Associate Professor of Economics, Gonzaga University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

18 Sep

GBP Holds Near Highs as Market Awaits BoE Decision

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair stabilised around 1.3626 USD on Thursday, following a highly volatile session on Wednesday. The pair remains close to its highest level in over ten weeks, as markets await the Bank of England’s policy decision later today.

The BoE is widely expected to maintain rates at 5.25% (note: corrected from 4% based on current BoE rate) and may signal a reduction in its £100 billion annual bond-purchase program.

Recent data showed UK inflation held steady at 3.8% in August, matching both forecasts and July’s 18-month high. Labour market figures were broadly in line with expectations: unemployment remained at 4.7%, wage growth (ex-bonuses) came in at 4.8% (4.7% including bonuses), and payrolls declined by 8,000.

Market expectations for a BoE rate cut remain subdued, with only a one-in-three chance priced in for a reduction by December.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut yesterday, with traders now expecting at least two additional cuts by the end of 2025.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD completed an upward move to 1.3723 USD, followed by a downward impulse to 1.3620 USD. The pair is now likely to form a consolidation range around this level. A break below 1.3620 USD could initiate a decline towards 1.3528 USD. A corrective rebound towards 1.3620 USD may then follow. Renewed selling pressure could subsequently drive the pair towards 1.3500 USD, with further downside potential to 1.3277 USD. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned above zero but turning decisively downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed a downward impulse to 1.3620 USD. A consolidation phase is expected around this level. A break lower would likely trigger the first wave of a new downtrend towards 1.3530 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this near-term bearish view, as its signal line lies below 50 and is trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound is trading near multi-week highs as markets await guidance from the BoE. While UK inflation remains elevated, softening labour data and a dovish Fed have limited the GBP’s upside. Technically, the pair appears vulnerable to a near-term correction, particularly if the BoE maintains a cautious tone. Today’s decision and accompanying communications will be critical in determining whether cable extends its rally or enters a deeper corrective phase.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Sep

Canadian dollar declines after inflation data. Investors take profits ahead of the Fed meeting

By JustMarkets

By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.27%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.13%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed down 0.07%. US stocks edged lower on Tuesday as investors took profits ahead of the highly anticipated September Federal Reserve meeting. Traders widely expect the Fed to cut the rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, which would be the first cut since December. Meanwhile, positive retail sales data for August signaled resilient consumer spending despite stagnant inflation and a softening labor market. Investors were also watching developments between the US and China. Progress on trade and a new TikTok framework boosted sentiment and contributed to a rise in Oracle shares.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.38 per US dollar in September, reaching monthly highs after domestic data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada would take a cautious approach to rate cuts. The core Consumer Price Index in August rose by 1.9% year-on-year – below the consensus of 2.0%. However, key metrics, specifically the average and median values, remain near 3.0%, indicating persistent underlying inflation after excluding volatile goods. These readings, along with signs of economic resilience, suggest that the Bank of Canada may keep policy restrictive for longer and decrease the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle; markets now expect only a modest 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.00%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 1.51%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negatively on Tuesday at 0.88%. On Tuesday, European stocks closed sharply lower, pressured by aggressive losses in the financial sector. Traders were cautious ahead of key monetary policy decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England this week, as well as trade talks between China and the US, while US President Trump begins his visit to the UK today. On the data front, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany surprisingly rose, while UK employment data continued to signal a slowdown in the labor market.

WTI crude oil prices rose more than 1.5% on Tuesday to $64.5 per barrel, continuing to climb on risks related to Russian supply. Ukraine launched another strike on oil refineries as part of a broader campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including the Primorsk export hub. Goldman Sachs estimates that recent attacks have taken about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity offline in August and early September. Reuters also reported that pipeline operators are restricting oil storage for producers, which is exacerbating the problem. Meanwhile, the EU is considering new sanctions, including against firms in India and China that facilitate Moscow’s oil trade.

The US natural gas prices rose to $3/MMBtu, the highest level in a week, amid falling production. The average output in September was 107.4 billion cubic feet per day, down from August’s record high of 108.3. However, inventory growth was limited by weak demand prognoses, ample storage capacity, and stagnant LNG exports. Gas inventories are about 6% above the seasonal average, and injections are expected to continue.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.50%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.03%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.28%.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.597, ending a two-day rally as traders showed caution ahead of Thursday’s GDP data release. The economy is expected to have contracted by 0.3% in the June quarter, which would reinforce the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish outlook. Markets now expect a 25 basis point rate cut at the October meeting, with rates expected to fall to 2.50% by early 2026.

The People’s Bank of China has released a draft rule aimed at easing restrictions on gold imports, proposing to expand the use of “reusable permits,” extend their validity from six to nine months, remove restrictions on use, and allow more ports to clear bullion. These measures also apply to exports, though permits are still rarely issued due to strict capital controls and the People’s Bank of China’s drive to build reserves. The move comes as China continues to buy gold for the ninth consecutive month, increasing its reserves to approximately 73.96 million troy ounces in August 2025.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,606.76 −8.52 (−0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,757.90 −125.55 (−0.27%)

DAX (DE40) 23,329.24 −419.62 (−1.77%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,195.66 −81.37 (−0.88%)

USD Index 96.65 −0.65 (−0.67%)

News feed for: 2025.09.17

Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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