InvestMacro

Australia’s monthly CPI hits 13-month high. Riksbank unexpectedly cuts rate

The record US stock rally took a breather on Tuesday as investors weighed cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials and concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven trading. The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.19%, the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.55%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.73% lower. Nvidia plunged 2.8% after a sharp Monday gain related to its $100 billion investment in OpenAI, as investors questioned the deal’s structure and energy requirements. Oracle and Amazon also fell, down 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described stock prices as “quite richly valued” and stressed the need to balance inflation risks with a weakening labor market. Other Fed officials supported the cautious tone: Goolsbee warned against reigniting inflation, while Michelle Bowman noted that rate cuts could accelerate if job losses intensify.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI for September 2025 dropped to 53.6 from 54.6 in August, falling short of market expectations. Although the figure marks a second consecutive month of slower growth, it still points to the strongest quarterly expansion since late 2024. Service sector activity slowed to its weakest pace since June, while manufacturing output growth eased from August’s 39-month high. The services PMI fell to 53.9 from 54.5, largely in line with market expectations of 54 and marking the slowest growth since June, according to the flash estimate.

European stock markets were mostly up. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.36%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.54% higher, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.50%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) had closed negative 0.04%. Data for September showed an acceleration in Germany’s private sector activity, as well as strengthening growth in the Eurozone’s service sector. In the UK, private sector growth slowed to its lowest level since May, with services expanding at a slower pace and manufacturing contracting further. Meanwhile, the OECD slightly raised its UK growth expectations to 1.4% for 2025 but indicated that inflation could reach 3.5% by year-end, the highest among major economies.

Sweden’s Central Bank, the Riksbank, unexpectedly lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% at its September meeting, defying market expectations for a hold. Policymakers stated the decision was aimed at supporting economic activity and returning inflation to target in the medium term. The Riksbank noted that conditions for stronger growth remain, and recent data provides confidence that elevated inflation is likely temporary. For now, the Central Bank stated that if its inflation and growth outlook holds, the rate is likely to remain at this level “for some time.”

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.99%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.27%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.40% higher. Sentiment weakened as China’s policy measures fell short of expectations following a Monday press briefing by top financial regulators, including the head of the PBoC. Hong Kong closed ahead of Super Typhoon Ragasa, with most flights suspended until Thursday.

The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.661 USD as investors processed stronger-than-expected consumer price growth in August. Data showed headline inflation accelerated to a one-year high, although core inflation eased, indicating mixed price pressures. The numbers did not change expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep rates unchanged at 3.6% at its September meeting, while the probability of a rate cut in November fell from 70% to 60% before the data release.

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.586 USD, returning to a more than two-week low after a brief lift in the previous session. The currency is also pressured by expectations of further rate cuts, after unexpectedly weak Q2 GDP data reinforced prospects for additional policy easing. Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis-point rate cut to 2.75% in October, with about a 25% chance of a larger, half-point move. On Wednesday, New Zealand’s Minister of Finance announced the appointment of Anna Breman as the country’s new Central Bank head, making her the first woman to hold the position. Breman, currently the first deputy governor of Sweden’s Central Bank, the Riksbank, will take up her post at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on December 1st. Breman is also the first foreign national appointed to the role in 37 years.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,656.92 −36.83 (−0.55%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,292.78 −88.76 (−0.19%)

DAX (DE40) 23,611.33 +84.28 (+0.36%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,223.32 −3.36 (−0.04%)

USD Index 97.24 −0.11 (−0.11%)

News feed for: 2025.09.24

Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
German ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

24 Sep

Gold Holds Near Record Highs as Demand Sustains Rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold traded around 3,760 USD per ounce on Wednesday, hovering near the record high established the previous day. The market continued to digest commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell.

Powell acknowledged the Fed’s challenging position, citing a combination of accelerating inflation and sluggish employment growth, which together heighten risks for the labour market. While he expressed satisfaction with the current policy trajectory, he left the door open for further interest rate cuts if warranted by economic conditions.

Market pricing in futures contracts indicates expectations for two additional 25-basis-point cuts this year, potentially in October and December. Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the August PCE index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – as well as scheduled speeches from other Fed officials.

Geopolitical tensions are providing additional support for the precious metal. NATO’s recent warning that it is prepared to deploy all necessary measures, both military and non-military, in its defence has bolstered gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 3,734 USD before breaking upwards to complete an upward move towards 3,790 USD. Following a correction to 3,750 USD, a new upward impulse has begun. The immediate focus is now on a break above the 3,790 USD level, which could open the path for a continuation towards 3,840 USD, with a longer-term prospect of reaching 3,878 USD. This bullish scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is well above the zero line and trending higher.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair consolidating around 3,717 USD before initiating an upward move targeting 3,808 USD. Upon reaching this level, a corrective pullback towards 3,730 USD is possible. Following this, a resumption of the uptrend towards at least 3,820 USD is anticipated. This outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold remains well-supported fundamentally by a dovish-leaning Fed and geopolitical risks, while the technical picture suggests the bullish momentum is intact. A sustained break above the immediate resistance could trigger the next leg higher towards fresh record levels.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

23 Sep

Wall Street extends its record run. Weak PMI data pressures AUD

By JustMarkets

Wall Street extended its record-breaking streak on Monday, fueled by optimism in megacap companies. The Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.14%, the S&P 500 (US500) rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq (US100) was up 0.55%. Nvidia shares surged 4% after announcing an investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, while Oracle jumped 6.3% following a leadership change and continued enthusiasm for AI. Apple shares increased by 4.3% on strong demand for the iPhone 17, and Tesla climbed 1.9%, reaching its 2025 high as investors anticipated new product launches and enhancements to its self-driving system.

The US President Donald Trump is set to announce this week that the deal to sell TikTok’s US operations to its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, complies with the 2024 law. Under the plan, ByteDance will hold less than a 20% stake, and TikTok US will be controlled by a group of existing American and international companies, as well as new investors not affiliated with ByteDance. Key investors include Oracle and Silver Lake, with Trump specifically highlighting US backers like Lachlan Murdoch, Larry Ellison, and Michael Dell. Trump will sign an executive order confirming the legality of the deal, which mandates storing US user data in Oracle’s cloud infrastructure.

European stock markets were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.30% lower, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) declined 1.17%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) had closed 0.11% higher. Carmakers faced losses after Porsche lowered its profit outlook for the year and delayed an EV launch due to weak demand, causing its shares to fall 7.2%. Volkswagen shares, a major Porsche shareholder, dropped 7.1%, and Stellantis fell more than 2%. Meanwhile, BBVA underperformed tech stocks, dropping 2.7% after raising its offer to acquire Banco Sabadell by 10% to €17 billion.

WTI crude oil prices were trading around $62 a barrel as traders weighed geopolitical risks against concerns over tariffs and slowing demand. Over the weekend, reports of Russian airstrikes on western Ukraine near the Polish border, airspace violations in Estonia, and a Russian military plane entering neutral Baltic airspace heightened fears of further regional escalation. Adding to the tension, the EU introduced its 19th package of sanctions against Russia on Friday, including a ban on LNG imports and restrictions on 118 additional shadow vessels. In the Middle East, geopolitical uncertainty also remained a focus as several countries officially recognized the state of Palestine ahead of a UN summit.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.99%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.76%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.43% higher.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar weakened to above the $0.658 level, giving up gains from the previous session as investors digested disappointing PMI data. Preliminary estimates showed the composite PMI fell to 52.1 in September from 55.5 in August. Market attention is now focused on the monthly CPI Index, due on Wednesday, which will clarify whether the inflation spike in July was caused by the end of electricity subsidies or broader price pressures. If inflation remains high or accelerates, expectations for an RBA rate cut could be pushed into next year.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.3% in August 2025 from 1.2% in the previous month, its highest reading since April and in line with market expectations. Food prices increased 2.0% year-over-year, slightly above the ten-month low of 1.9% in July. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1%, matching the gain from the previous four months.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate eased to 0.5% in August 2025, below market expectations and the 0.6% recorded in the previous month. The latest figure marked the lowest inflation level since January 2021. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.5% in August. Meanwhile, annual core inflation declined to 0.3% in August, the lowest since February 2021, compared to market prognoses of 0.4% and the July figure of 0.5%.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,693.75 +29.39 (+0.44%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,381.54 +66.27 (+0.14%)

DAX (DE40) 23,527.05 −112.36 (−0.48%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,226.68 +10.01 (+0.11%)

USD Index 97.33 −0.32 (−0.33%)

News feed for: 2025.09.23

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 19:35 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Sep

EUR/USD Extends Gains as US Dollar Weakens on Fed Uncertainty and Shutdown Fears

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair advanced to 1.1804 on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive day of gains. The US dollar faced sustained pressure as markets digested mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding the interest rate outlook.

Several Fed members advocated for caution on further easing, pointing to signs of stabilising inflation. However, this stance was countered by new Governing Council member Stephen Miran, who warned that the central bank may be underestimating current policy tightness and risks damaging the labour market without more decisive rate cuts.

Investors are now focused on the upcoming release of the PCE price index on Friday – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – which is expected to provide critical guidance for future monetary policy.

Adding to the market’s unease are the ongoing US congressional budget negotiations. Lawmakers are working to avert a potential government shutdown by the 30 September deadline, creating a fresh layer of uncertainty.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD completed a decline to 1.1727, followed by a correction to 1.1818. The current expectation is for a resumption of the downward move towards an initial target of 1.1704. Upon reaching this level, a subsequent rebound towards 1.1800 is anticipated. This bearish scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is around the zero line and pointing decisively downwards.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair completed its descent to 1.1727 and is now forming a corrective structure. Today’s price action has created an upward move towards 1.1818. From here, we expect a decline to 1.1777. A further rise to 1.1824 could then unfold, completing the corrective phase and setting the stage for a new downward wave targeting 1.1704. This outlook is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 50 and falling sharply towards 20.

Conclusion

While the euro is capitalising on a weaker dollar driven by divergent Fed commentary and political risks, the technical structure suggests the upside may be limited. The broader trend appears poised for a resumption of declines, contingent on the key PCE data and developments in Washington.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Sep

China is keeping its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at a record low. Meanwhile, silver prices have hit a new 14-year high

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.37% (ending the week up +1.02%). The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.49% (ending the week up +0.92%), and the Nasdaq (US100) technology Index closed 0.70% higher (ending the week up +1.85%). The US stocks closed at new highs on Friday, continuing a record-breaking streak. Investors were buoyed by positive corporate results, the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025, and signs of progress in US-China relations. FedEx jumped 2.3% after reporting stronger-than-expected results, while Apple rose by 3.2% following a price target upgrade from J.P. Morgan and the launch of a new iPhone. Tesla shares climbed 2.2% after Baird upgraded its rating to “outperform,” which helped lift the technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Markets also monitored a lengthy conversation between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, in which Trump noted progress.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.375 per US dollar, nearing its September highs. Preliminary estimates show that retail sales rose by about 1.0% in August, reversing July’s 0.8% decline. This points to stronger household demand than markets had feared, which lowered the probability of a sharp policy easing by the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada recently cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% after a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown, including a 1.6% contraction in Q2 GDP and a 27% collapse in exports. The deteriorating labor market, with a net job loss and an unemployment rate of 7.1% in August, has eased wage pressures and supported the case for policy easing.

European stock markets were mixed on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.15% (down -0.61% for the week), while the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.01% (up +0.07% for the week). The Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.56% (down -0.65% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.12% (down -0.72% for the week).

On Monday, silver prices surged to $43.5 per ounce, reaching a new 14-year high as expectations of further rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve supported demand for precious metals. Strong fundamentals have bolstered silver, with limited supply helping to maintain its upward momentum. On the demand side, robust consumption in the solar energy, electric vehicle, and electronics sectors provided additional support.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.4% on Friday to $62.70 per barrel, marking the third consecutive session of losses. A supply surplus and concerns about weakening demand outweighed hopes that the recent US Fed rate cut would boost consumption. Traders also monitored developments in US-China and US-India relations, which could affect Russian oil flows, along with a strengthening dollar that reduced demand for dollar-denominated commodities.

The US natural gas prices dropped to $2.90/MMBtu, their lowest in three weeks, thanks to ample gas in storage and expectations for milder weather, which will reduce near-term demand. Record production earlier this year allowed for more gas than usual to be put into storage, and supplies are currently about 6% above average. On Thursday, the EIA reported a 90 billion cubic foot storage build for the week ending September 12, exceeding last year’s 56 billion cubic feet and the five-year average of 74 billion cubic feet, as mild temperatures limited heating and cooling demand.

Asian markets had a mixed performance last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.54%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.90%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week down 0.54%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, for the fourth straight month, despite the recent US Fed rate cuts. Authorities are holding back on major stimulus measures even as economic data points to a slowdown. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that he and Xi Jinping had approved a TikTok deal during a “productive” phone call, although Beijing has not confirmed this information.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is continuing to closely monitor economic developments, though recent data is broadly in line with expectations, according to Governor Michele Bullock on Monday. Speaking to lawmakers, Bullock noted that the Central Bank is nearing its inflation and employment goals, with inflation on track to reach the 2-3% range and the labor market close to full employment. The board has gradually eased policy, cutting rates in February, May, and August to 3.6%, with further action depending on incoming data.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,664.36 +32.40 (+0.49%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,315.27 +172.85 (+0.37%)

DAX (DE40) 23,639.41 −35.12 (−0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,216.67 −11.44 (−0.12%)

USD Index 97.65 +0.30 (+0.31%)

News feed for: 2025.09.22

China 1-y Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
China 5-y Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Sep

USD/JPY Soars as Yen Weakens on BoJ Policy Concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 148.31 on Monday, extending its gains from the previous week as the US dollar strengthened across the board. The yen faced additional pressure from heightened anticipation around upcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials and the release of critical US inflation data.

Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point cut – its first since December. The central bank’s projections indicated two further reductions before the end of the year.

This contrasts sharply with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) stance. Last Friday, the BoJ held its key rate at 0.5% per annum for a fifth consecutive meeting, a decision that was squarely in line with market forecasts. In its accompanying statement, the central bank described a moderate economic recovery but pointed to persistent weak spots and warned of risks stemming from global trade policy.

In a more significant step, the regulator unanimously approved plans to begin selling ETFs and J-REITs from its vast portfolio. This detail is particularly noteworthy and can be interpreted as a cautious signal that the bank is preparing to wind down its long-standing asset purchase program.

This week, investor focus will shift to the latest PMI data and inflation figures for Tokyo, alongside the release of the minutes from the BoJ’s July meeting. These documents may provide crucial insights into the timing and nature of the regulator’s next policy steps.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY found solid support at the 147.20 level and is now developing a fresh upward move targeting 148.88. We expect this target to be tested today. Following this, a corrective pullback towards 147.20 is likely. Following this correction, we anticipate another upward move aiming for the 150.00 psychological level. This outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero and pointing sharply upwards.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair completed an upward move to 148.23, followed by a correction to 147.20. The current momentum is building for a further advance towards 148.88. Upon reaching this level, a corrective pullback towards 147.20 is possible. The broader upward trajectory is then expected to resume, with a minimum target of 150.00. This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 and rising firmly towards the 80 level.

Conclusion

The yen remains under significant pressure, caught between a resilient US dollar and the Bank of Japan’s cautious, gradual approach to policy normalisation. The path of least resistance for USD/JPY remains higher, contingent on this week’s key data releases reinforcing the current fundamental and technical picture.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Sep

US Dollar Index Speculators push Bets to most bearish level since 2021

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (28,071 contracts), the British Pound (27,025 contracts), the Brazilian Real (6,135 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,261 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,799 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (1,740 contracts) and Bitcoin (488 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-30,232 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-9,261 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-7,336 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-7,918 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Speculators push Bets to most bearish level since 2021

This week’s Currency Speculator positioning is highlighted by the number of big changes on the week. We had three currency positions changed by over 25,000 contracts and three others by 7,500 contracts or more.

Starting off, the U.S. Dollar Index positions fell this week by -7,336 net contracts. This was the second straight week of declines and the third out of the last four weeks. This was influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates on September 17th by 25 basis points. The overall U.S. Dollar Index positioning has now been in a negative or bearish standing for 14 consecutive weeks. This week’s current standing at -12,894 contracts is the most bearish level for the U.S. Dollar Index since February 23, 2021, a span of 238 weeks. At that time, the U.S. Dollar Index price was right around the 90.90 exchange rate, compared to today, where the U.S. Dollar Index resides at 97.27 to close out last week.

Next up, the biggest gain on the week was by the Australian Dollar with a rise by 28,071 contracts. Over the past three weeks, Australian Dollar contracts have risen by almost +50,000 positions after dropping to a -100,000 contract (close to a record bearish low) standing on August 26th. Overall, AUD speculator positions have been highly bearish since December of 2024 and have now been in negative territory for 40 consecutive weeks. The Australian Dollar exchange rate has risen by over 7% this year against the U.S. Dollar but remains under its 200-week moving average, with the AUD closing this week at 0.6602.

The British Pound Sterling had the next highest gain of the week as spec positions jumped by over 27,000 contracts. This week’s gain followed three weeks of declines as well as decreases in eight out of the previous nine weeks. Overall, the British Pound Sterling has now been in a bearish position for eight consecutive weeks but the strong rebound this week brings the overall net standing for the British Pound Sterling to a small bearish position of -6,580 net contracts. In terms of exchange rates, the British Pound Sterling has been up by 10.33% against the U.S. Dollar this year as the British Pound closed out the week at 1.3472.

The Japanese Yen saw the largest decline this week by a -30,232 net contract shortfall. The yen positions had started out the year of 2025 on a sharp incline but has been trending the other way and has been quickly shedding its bullish positions with declines in eight out of the past 12 weeks for a loss of -70,866 net contracts over the past 12 weeks. The Japanese Yen position has eroded after reaching an all-time high in April at a total of +179,212 net contracts. This week the overall net position came in at a +61,411 net contracts, the lowest level of the past 30 weeks. The Japanese Yen exchange rate does remain higher against the U.S. Dollar by approximately 8% on the year but has cooled off and has been sliding since hitting a yearly high in April.

Brazilian Real leads FX Price Changes this week

Leading this week’s currency market price changes was the Brazilian Real, which advanced by 0.56%. The Real has now been up by approximately 2% over the last 30 days and is higher now by 5.86% over the past 90 days.

The Canadian Dollar comes up next with a 0.41% increase on the week. The ‘Loonie’ Dollar has turned positive over the past 90 days with a 1.41% rise. The Mexican Peso follows next with a 0.27% edge higher on the week. The Peso has advanced by approximately 6% over the past 90 days.

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up by 0.16% this week, followed by the Euro and the Swiss Franc, which were virtually unchanged but up by 0.09% each for the past 5 days.

The Japanese Yen dipped by -0.24% on the week, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which saw a slide by -0.67%. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.84%, while Bitcoin declined by -1.20%. And finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -1.68% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (95 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (69 percent), Japanese Yen (68 percent) and the Bitcoin (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores is the British Pound (23 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.1 percent)
EuroFX (73.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (9.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (67.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (44.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (54.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (68.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.1 percent)
Bitcoin (53.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (42.8 percent)

Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-14 percent), US Dollar Index (-13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-12.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.1 percent)
EuroFX (0.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-5.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-13.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-0.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-15.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (26.1 percent)
Bitcoin (32.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	54.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	19.3	8.9
– Net Position:	-12,894	13,534	-640
– Gross Longs:	12,491	20,961	2,776
– Gross Shorts:	25,385	7,427	3,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	16.2	-31.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	57.3	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	76.9	5.3
– Net Position:	117,759	-167,380	49,621
– Gross Longs:	253,261	490,481	94,620
– Gross Shorts:	135,502	657,861	44,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	24.2	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-1.3	4.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	48.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	50.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-6,580	-5,099	11,679
– Gross Longs:	80,796	112,620	37,259
– Gross Shorts:	87,376	117,719	25,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	63.9	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-16.2	23.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 61,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	31.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	54.6	11.2
– Net Position:	61,411	-68,338	6,927
– Gross Longs:	161,673	95,157	40,523
– Gross Shorts:	100,262	163,495	33,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	33.7	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	4.8	3.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	68.9	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	29.6	24.8
– Net Position:	-26,040	28,198	-2,158
– Gross Longs:	6,235	49,405	15,606
– Gross Shorts:	32,275	21,207	17,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	45.5	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-8.0	15.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	82.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	39.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-107,177	114,181	-7,004
– Gross Longs:	20,975	218,993	22,611
– Gross Shorts:	128,152	104,812	29,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	60.5	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	12.9	-4.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	53.0	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.1	26.8	12.5
– Net Position:	-51,160	40,651	10,509
– Gross Longs:	40,276	82,083	29,912
– Gross Shorts:	91,436	41,432	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	54.2	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.0	-25.0	25.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	70.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	31.0	10.3
– Net Position:	-18,004	19,416	-1,412
– Gross Longs:	9,251	34,634	3,655
– Gross Shorts:	27,255	15,218	5,067
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	56.0	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	14.9	-1.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 77,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.7	34.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	79.5	1.5
– Net Position:	77,993	-82,741	4,748
– Gross Longs:	112,395	61,957	7,553
– Gross Shorts:	34,402	144,698	2,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	31.7	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.7	6.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 62,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	31.4	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	86.1	0.8
– Net Position:	62,222	-65,752	3,530
– Gross Longs:	72,832	37,805	4,483
– Gross Shorts:	10,610	103,557	953
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.0	3.9	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-30.4	1.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	4.0	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	5.6	3.1
– Net Position:	20	-453	433
– Gross Longs:	23,788	1,151	1,323
– Gross Shorts:	23,768	1,604	890
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.5	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-36.7	6.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, Brazil Real & EAFE lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 16th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level sits currently at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 17 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 95,098 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,514 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The BRL speculator level is now at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 31 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 62,222 net contracts this week with a weekly boost by 6,135 contracts in speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings with the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level residing at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 9,549 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,034 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is at a 81 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled an advance by 11 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 266,410 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,670 contracts in the speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Silver speculator level sits at a 79 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge higher by 1 percentage point this week.

The speculator position was 51,538 net contracts this week with a dip by -2,399 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the SOFR 1-Month speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a large drop by -64 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -297,794 net contracts this week with a decline of -88,017 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -13 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -12,894 net contracts this week with a decrease of -7,336 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The VIX speculator level resides at just a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -101,689 net contracts this week with a change of 6,121 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -16 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 98,709 net contracts this week with a boost by 16,865 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -7 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,403,470 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,509 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News

21 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (4,670 contracts) with Copper (3,107 contracts) and Platinum (847 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-2,399 contracts), Palladium (-270 contracts) and with Steel (-28 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Silver leads Metals Price Changes this week

Silver was the leader in this week’s metals market’s price performance changes. Silver was up by 1.8% over the last 5 days and has been higher by 12.28% over the past 30 days, while also surging by 31.72% over the past 90 days.

Gold comes in next with a gain of 1.09% on the week. Gold has risen by 8.31% in the past 30 days and is up by 13.74% over the past 90 days. Platinum also rose modestly this week with a 0.45% gain. Platinum has seen its price shoot up by 5.44% in the past 30 days and by a whopping 42.27% in the past 90 days.

Copper dipped by -0.28% this week. Copper has been up by approximately 4% in the past 30 days, but over the past 90 days copper has fallen by -1.24%. Steel dropped this week by -3.59%. However, Steel has been higher by over 3% in the past 30 days and is up by approximately 19% in the past 90 days.

Palladium came in as the biggest loser this week with a -5.39% decline. Palladium, however, has been higher by over 2% in the past 30 days and has increased by approximately 20% over the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (81 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Platinum (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (81.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (79.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (82.3 percent)
Copper (61.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (58.6 percent)
Platinum (49.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (46.9 percent)
Palladium (74.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.4 percent)
Steel (59.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (60.0 percent)

Gold & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) and Copper (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-13 percent) and Platinum (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.5 percent)
Silver (1.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.3 percent)
Copper (9.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.4 percent)
Platinum (-3.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-15.6 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.2 percent)
Steel (0.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 266,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.3	15.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	73.7	4.8
– Net Position:	266,410	-302,371	35,961
– Gross Longs:	326,778	77,867	60,872
– Gross Shorts:	60,368	380,238	24,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.4	13.5	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-11.6	9.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 51,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	26.5	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	70.3	7.7
– Net Position:	51,538	-71,389	19,851
– Gross Longs:	71,623	43,118	32,407
– Gross Shorts:	20,085	114,507	12,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	18.1	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.0	-8.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	31.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	49.1	4.3
– Net Position:	30,348	-38,424	8,076
– Gross Longs:	69,370	69,990	17,621
– Gross Shorts:	39,022	108,414	9,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.5	37.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-4.9	-24.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	21.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	42.3	4.9
– Net Position:	15,203	-21,087	5,884
– Gross Longs:	54,061	21,326	10,757
– Gross Shorts:	38,858	42,413	4,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	52.1	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	4.9	-5.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	38.6	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.6	27.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-4,012	2,140	1,872
– Gross Longs:	8,024	7,660	3,113
– Gross Shorts:	12,036	5,520	1,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	13.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	11.0	8.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -84 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -28 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	73.1	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	73.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-84	-74	158
– Gross Longs:	4,491	15,641	442
– Gross Shorts:	4,575	15,715	284
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	40.4	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	0.2	-4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

21 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (167,521 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (117,989 contracts), the Fed Funds (87,943 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (38,673 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8,102 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (4,470 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-88,017 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-28,509 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,274 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Fed Funds leads Bonds Price Changes

Leading the bond market’s price performance this week was the Fed Funds, with a modest gain of 0.29%. The Fed Funds have been up by 0.28% over the past 30 days, and are higher by 1.34% over the past 90 days.

Next up, we have the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which rose by 0.25% followed by the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which was a tick higher by 0.09%. Both of these markets are up by over 1% in the last 90 days, respectively.

The 2-Year Bonds were virtually unchanged, with a 0.04% gain on the week. The 2-year bond has been higher by 0.75% over the past 90 days.

The 5-Year Bonds were slightly lower, with a -0.15% decline on the week. However, the 5-Year Bonds have increased by over 2% in the past 90 days. The 10-Year Bonds were lower by -0.39%. The 10-Year Bonds are up by 1% over the past 30 days, and higher by over 3% in the past 90 days.

Finally, the U.S. Treasury Bond was lower by -1.03% over the past week. However, the U.S. Treasury Bond has been higher by 1.54% in the past 30 days, and has advanced by 3.22% in the past 90 days.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (72 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (55 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 1-Month (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (36.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (38.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (36.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (49.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (20.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (55.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (46.5 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-64 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (16.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-36.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-64.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-14.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (17.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (12.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -119,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 87,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -207,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	63.6	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	59.4	1.4
– Net Position:	-119,513	107,071	12,442
– Gross Longs:	359,323	1,606,503	47,927
– Gross Shorts:	478,836	1,499,432	35,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	54.6	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-17.8	3.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 167,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,004 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	55.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-98,483	97,806	677
– Gross Longs:	1,999,586	7,670,131	35,703
– Gross Shorts:	2,098,069	7,572,325	35,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	44.6	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-18.9	11.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -297,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -88,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -209,777 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	71.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	53.4	0.0
– Net Position:	-297,794	297,793	1
– Gross Longs:	193,227	1,182,295	273
– Gross Shorts:	491,021	884,502	272
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.0	64.2	-2.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,403,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,374,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	78.5	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	51.0	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,403,470	1,248,246	155,224
– Gross Longs:	569,143	3,564,142	258,784
– Gross Shorts:	1,972,613	2,315,896	103,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.0	90.8	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	5.9	6.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,436,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 117,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,554,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.8	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	50.7	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,436,774	2,234,545	202,229
– Gross Longs:	519,377	5,660,026	458,365
– Gross Shorts:	2,956,151	3,425,481	256,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	86.8	87.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-4.6	-2.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -819,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -857,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	75.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	63.4	6.0
– Net Position:	-819,299	659,945	159,354
– Gross Longs:	728,767	4,088,798	481,431
– Gross Shorts:	1,548,066	3,428,853	322,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	53.5	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-25.8	14.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -266,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -274,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	75.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	61.3	12.4
– Net Position:	-266,822	332,797	-65,975
– Gross Longs:	345,310	1,791,967	228,464
– Gross Shorts:	612,132	1,459,170	294,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	63.4	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.0	-20.8	-14.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -94,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	77.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	79.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-94,138	-41,776	135,914
– Gross Longs:	151,579	1,412,245	258,901
– Gross Shorts:	245,717	1,454,021	122,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	26.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-12.6	22.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -263,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -248,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-263,219	262,589	630
– Gross Longs:	135,468	1,645,379	183,916
– Gross Shorts:	398,687	1,382,790	183,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	42.7	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.2	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

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