Why do big oil companies invest in green energy?

By Michael Oxman, Georgia Institute of Technology 

Some major oil companies such as Shell and BP that once were touted as leading the way in clean energy investments are now pulling back from those projects to refocus on oil and gas production. Others, such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron, have concentrated on oil and gas but announced recent investments in carbon capture projects, as well as in lithium and graphite production for electric vehicle batteries.

National oil companies have also been investing in renewable energy. For example, Saudi Aramco has invested in clean energy while at the same time asserting that it’s unrealistic to phase out oil and gas entirely.

But the larger question is why oil companies would invest in clean energy at all, especially at a time when many federal clean energy incentives are being eliminated and climate science is being dismantled, at least in the United States.

Some answers depend on whom you ask. More traditional petroleum industry followers would urge the companies to keep focused on their core fossil fuel businesses to meet growing energy demand and corresponding near-term shareholder returns. Other shareholders and stakeholders concerned about sustainability and the climate – including an increasing number of companies with sustainability goals – would likely point out the business opportunities for clean energy to meet global needs.

Other answers depend on the particular company itself. Very small producers have different business plans than very large private and public companies. Geography and regional policies can also play a key role. And government-owned companies such as Saudi Aramco, Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corp. control the majority of the world’s oil and gas resources with revenues that support their national economies.

Despite the relatively modest scale of investment in clean energy by oil and gas companies so far, there are several business reasons oil companies would increase their investments in clean energy over time.

The oil and gas industry has provided energy that has helped create much of modern society and technology, though those advances have also come with significant environmental and social costs. My own experience in the oil industry gave me insight into how at least some of these companies try to reconcile this tension and to make strategic portfolio decisions regarding what “green” technologies to invest in. Now the managing director and a professor of the practice at the Ray C. Anderson Center for Sustainable Business at Georgia Tech, I seek ways to eliminate the boundaries and identify mutually reinforcing innovations among business interests and environmental concerns.

Diversification and financial drivers

Just like financial advisers tell you to diversify your 401(k) investments, companies do so to weather different kinds of volatility, from commodity prices to political instability. Oil and gas markets are notoriously cyclical, so investments in clean energy can hedge against these shifts for companies and investors alike.

Clean energy can also provide opportunities for new revenue. Many customers want to buy clean energy, and oil companies want to be positioned to cash in as this transition occurs. By developing employees’ expertise and investing in emerging technologies, they can be ready for commercial opportunities in biofuels, renewable natural gas, hydrogen and other pathways that may overlap with their existing, core business competencies.

Fossil fuel companies have also found what other companies have: Clean energy can reduce costs. Some oil companies not only invest in energy efficiency for their buildings but use solar or wind to power their wells. And adding renewable energy to their activities can also lower the cost of investing in these companies.

Public pressure

All companies, including those in oil and gas, are under growing pressure to address climate change, from the public, from other companies with whom they do business and from government regulators – at least outside the U.S. For example, campaigns seeking to reduce investment in fossil fuels are increasing along with climate-related lawsuits. Government policies focused on both mitigating carbon emissions and enhancing energy independence are also making headway in some locations.

In response, many oil companies are reducing their own operational emissions and setting targets to offset or eliminate emissions from products that they sell – though many observers question the viability of these commitments. Other companies are investing in emerging technologies such as hydrogen and methods to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

Some companies, such as BP and Equinor, have previously even gone so far as rebranding themselves and acquiring clean energy businesses. But those efforts have also been criticized as “greenwashing,” taking actions for public relations value rather than real results.

How far can this go?

It is even possible for a fossil fuel company to reinvent itself as a clean energy operation. Denmark’s Orsted – formerly known as Danish Oil and Natural Gas – transitioned from fossil fuels to become a global leader in offshore wind. The company, whose majority owner is the Danish government, made the shift, however, with the help of significant public and political support.

But most large oil companies aren’t likely to completely reinvent themselves anytime soon. Making that change requires leadership, investor pressure, customer demand and shifts in government policy, such as putting a price or tax on carbon emissions.

To show students in my sustainability classes how companies’ choices affect both the environment and the industry as a whole, I use the MIT Fishbanks simulation. Students run fictional fishing companies competing for profit. Even when they know the fish population is finite, they overfish, leading to the collapse of the fishery and its businesses. Short-term profits cause long-term disaster for the fishery and the businesses that depend on it.

The metaphor for oil and gas is clear: As fossil fuels continue to be extracted and burned, they release planet-warming emissions, harming the planet as a whole. They also pose substantial business risks to the oil and gas industry itself.

Yet students in a recent class showed me that a more collective way of thinking may be possible. Teams voluntarily reduced their fishing levels to preserve long-term business and environmental sustainability, and they even cooperated with their competitors. They did so without in-game regulatory threats, shareholder or customer complaints, or lawsuits.

Their shared understanding that the future of their own fishing companies was at stake makes me hopeful that this type of leadership may take hold in real companies and the energy system as a whole. But the question remains about how fast that change can happen, amid the accelerating global demand for more energy along with the increasing urgency and severity of climate change and its effects.The Conversation

About the Author:

Michael Oxman, Professor of the Practice of Sustainable Business, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Why aren’t companies speeding up investment? A new theory offers an answer to an economic paradox

By David Ikenberry, University of Colorado Boulder 

For years, I’ve puzzled over a question that seems to defy common sense: If stock markets are hitting records and tech innovation seems endless, why aren’t companies pouring money back into new projects?

Yes, they’re still investing – but the pace of business spending is slower than you’d expect, especially outside of AI.

And if you’ve noticed headlines about sluggish business spending even as corporate profits soar, you’re not alone. It’s a puzzle that’s confounded economists, policymakers and investors for decades. Back in 1975, U.S. public companies reinvested an average of 25 cents for every dollar on their balance sheets. Today, that figure is closer to 12 cents.

In other words, corporate America is flush with cash, but it’s surprisingly stingy about reinvesting in its own future. What happened?

I’m an economist, and my colleague Gustavo Grullon and I recently published a study in the Journal of Finance that turns the field’s conventional wisdom on its head. Our research suggests the issue isn’t cautious executives or jittery markets – it’s about how economists have historically measured companies’ incentives to invest in the first place.

Asking the wrong Q

For decades, economists have relied on a simple but appealing ratio – Tobin’s Q, named after the famous economist James Tobin – to gauge whether companies should ramp up investment.

They calculate this by dividing a company’s market value – what it would take to purchase the firm outright with cash – by its replacement value, or how much it would cost to rebuild the company from scratch. The result is called “Q.” The higher the Q, the theory goes, the more incentive executives have to invest.

But reality hasn’t conformed to fit the theory. Over the past half-century, Tobin’s Q has gone up, yet investment rates have gone down sharply.

Why the disconnect? Our research points to one key culprit: excess capacity. Many U.S. companies already have more factories, machines or service capability than they can use. By not correcting for this issue, the traditional Tobin’s Q will overstate the incentive that companies have to grow.

To see this, consider a commercial real estate company that owns a portfolio of office buildings. In recent years, with the rise of e-commerce and remote work, many of their properties have been running well below capacity. Now suppose a few new tenants start paying rent and begin absorbing a portion of that empty space. Stock prices will rise in response to seeing these new cash flows, which in turn will lead Q to rise.

Traditionally, this increase in Q would suggest that it’s a good time to invest in new buildings – but the reality is quite different with idle capacity still in the system. Why pour money into building another office tower if existing ones still have empty floors?

This key idea is that what matters isn’t the average value of all assets – it’s the marginal value of adding one more dollar of investment. And because capacity utilization has been steadily eroding over the past half-century, many firms see little reason to invest.

That last point may come as a surprise, but the U.S. economy, with all its factories and offices, isn’t nearly as abuzz with activity as it was after, say, World War II. Today, many sectors operate well below full throttle. This growing slack in the system over time helps explain why companies have pulled back on their rate of investment, even as profits and market values climb.

Why has capacity utilization fallen so much over the past half-century? It’s not entirely clear, but what economists call “structural economic rigidities” – things such as regulatory hurdles, labor market frictions or shifts in cost structure – seem to be part of the answer. These factors can drag businesses into a state of chronic underuse, especially after recessions.

Why it matters

This isn’t just an academic debate. The implications are profound, whether you closely follow Wall Street or just enjoy armchair economic policy debates. For one thing, this dynamic might help explain why tax cuts haven’t spurred investment the way supporters have hoped.

Take the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which slashed the top corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and introduced full expensing for equipment investments. Supporters promised a wave of new investment.

But when my colleague and I looked at the numbers, we found the opposite. In the four years before the tax cuts, publicly traded U.S. firms had an aggregate investment rate, including intangibles, of 13.9%. In the four years after the tax cut, the average investment rate fell to 12.4% – in other words, no evidence of a bump.

Where did those liberated cash flows go? Instead of plowing this newfound cash after the tax cuts into new projects, many companies funneled it into stock buybacks and dividends.

In retrospect, this makes sense. If a company has excess capacity, the incentive to invest should be more muted, even if new machines are suddenly cheaper thanks to tax breaks. If the demand isn’t there, why buy them?

Even with the most generous tax incentives, the core challenge remains: You can’t force-feed investment into an economy already swimming in excess capacity. If companies don’t see real, scalable demand, tax breaks alone aren’t likely to unlock a new era of business spending.

That doesn’t mean tax policy doesn’t matter – it does, especially for smaller firms with real growth prospects. But for the large, well-established firms that make up the lion’s share of the economy, the bigger challenge is demand. Rather than trying to stimulate even more investment, policymakers should prioritize understanding why demand is sagging relative to supply and reducing economic rigidities where they can. That way, the capacity generated by new investment has somewhere useful to go.The Conversation

About the Author:

David Ikenberry, Professor of Finance, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

WTI oil prices fell by more than 3%. The RBA maintained the interest rate at 3.6%

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.15%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.26%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.48% higher. The US stocks closed up on Monday, driven by gains in technology and AI company stocks like Nvidia (+2.1%), AMD (+1.2%), and Micron Technology (+4.2%). Shares of the video game company Electronic Arts (EA) jumped 4.5% following the announcement of a $55 billion stock buyback deal by a Saudi Arabian company. Market participants are closely monitoring the risk of a US government shutdown, which could delay the release of key economic data, including Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, increasing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut decisions.

The Canadian dollar recovered to the 1.39 level against the US dollar as a weaker USD following the August PCE data release and stronger domestic economic activity reduced both external and internal pressure on the Canadian currency. Statistics Canada revised July GDP up to 0.2% month-over-month and reported that economic activity was virtually flat in August, easing concerns about a Canadian economic recession and shifting market focus back to growth data. The Bank of Canada’s 25-basis-point rate cut to 2.5% on September 17 was widely anticipated. Therefore, it did not trigger unexpected capital outflows.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.13%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 0.22%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.16% higher.

WTI oil prices fell by more than 3% to $63.4 a barrel after Iraq’s Kurdish region resumed oil exports on Saturday following a two-and-a-half-year hiatus, and as OPEC+ plans another output increase this week, compounding oversupply fears. The agreement between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil companies operating in the region will initially allow 180,000-190,000 barrels per day to flow to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. This follows pressure from the US to get Kurdish oil back on international markets, with volumes eventually expected to rise to approximately 230,000 barrels per day. The return of Kurdish oil coincides with efforts by OPEC+ to increase output to further win market share. The group is reportedly likely to approve an increase in production of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November at its meeting this week.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) held firm around $3.20/MMBtu, a ten-week high, driven by lower production. Output in the US 48 states declined to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day in September from a record 108.3 billion cubic feet per day in August. Earlier supply surges led to a significant increase in inventories, which are 6% above the five-year average and 1% higher than last year.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.69%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.89%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 0.85%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, in line with market expectations. The Board noted that headline and trimmed mean inflation remained in the 2-3% range in the second quarter of 2025, though partial and volatile data suggest third-quarter inflation may be higher than anticipated. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains around domestic economic activity and inflation amid elevated global risks. The status of US tariffs and the retaliatory actions by other countries is becoming clearer, reducing the probability of extreme outcomes, but the expected evolution of trade is still anticipated to weigh on global growth.

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 in September 2025, surpassing both the August reading of 50.5 and the market consensus expectations of 50.3. This was the highest reading since March. Production grew at the fastest pace in three months, and new export orders rose for the first time in six months.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,661.21 +17.51 (+0.26%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,316.07 +68.78 (+0.15%)

DAX (DE40) 23,745.06 +5.59 (+0.024%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,299.84 +15.01 (+0.16%)

USD Index 97.94 -0.21 (-0.22%)

News feed for: 2025.09.30

  • Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • Australia RBA Cash Rate at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • Australia RBA Rate Statement at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • Australia RBA Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:50 (GMT+3);
  • US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

USD/JPY Under Pressure: All Eyes on Bank of Japan Rhetoric

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell to 148.49, marking a third consecutive day of declines as markets digest mixed signals from the Bank of Japan.

The recently published summary of opinions from the September meeting revealed a divided policy committee. Some members advocated for further rate hikes, assuming current growth and inflation forecasts hold. Others, however, argued for maintaining low rates to help cushion the economy from the impact of new US tariffs.

Further highlighting the internal debate, one board member emphasised a wait-and-see approach, stressing the need to monitor global trade policy, the yen’s exchange rate, and domestic price and wage dynamics. In contrast, another member noted that with over six months having passed since the last policy shift, it was time to consider another increase.

Weakening Japanese economic data added to the downward pressure. August retail sales fell 1.1%, missing forecasts for 1.0% growth and marking the first decline since February 2022. Industrial production figures also came in worse than expected.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a tight consolidation range around 148.80. Today’s downside breakout has extended the correction, with the next target at 147.72. Upon reaching this level, we anticipate a potential new growth wave towards 149.95. This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above zero but pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair completed a decline to 148.80 and consolidated around this level. The subsequent downside breakout has confirmed the continuation of the bearish wave structure towards 147.72. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line below 50 and falling sharply towards 20.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains under pressure amid divergent signals from the BoJ and soft domestic data. While the near-term technical bias is bearish, the current decline is viewed as a correction within a broader uptrend, with the potential for a renewed upward move upon completion of the current wave.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Silver breaks price records again. RBA expected to hold rates at tomorrow’s meeting

By JustMarkets

The US stocks closed higher on Friday as investors reacted positively to a PCE inflation report that met expectations, yet factored in President Trump’s new wave of tariffs and softening consumer sentiment. The Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.65% (+0.09% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.59% (-0.16% for the week), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.44% higher (-0.34% for the week). The August PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed core inflation at 2.9% year-over-year, supporting expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at upcoming meetings. However, new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, heavy trucks, and furniture announced by President Trump added uncertainty, alongside fears of a potential government shutdown.

Last week, the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% for the first time since March, citing a weak labor market. The Central Bank stated it would be prepared for another cut if the economy continues to face risks in the coming months. However, economists believe this month’s rate cut is not enough to eliminate the “slack” in Canada’s labor market. Many are confident the next cut should occur in October and should bring the rate to the lower end of the two percent target range to address Canada’s persistent economic weakness and low business investment, which have been exacerbated by the trade conflict.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.87% (+0.73% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.97% (+0.29% for the week), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) advanced 1.30% (+0.82% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.77% higher (+0.74% for the week).

The UK faces 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical products imported into the US. Late last week, Trump announced the 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, which will apply to companies unless they establish a manufacturing presence in the US. The EU and Japan are exempt from this new tariff threat as both countries have secured trade deals capping pharmaceutical duties at 15%. According to US trade data, pharmaceutical imports from the UK represented about 3.3% of total US drug imports in 2024.

WTI crude oil gained 1.1% on Friday to settle at $65.70 a barrel, marking its largest weekly gain in three months, up over 4%. The rally was fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure prompted Moscow to restrict diesel and gasoline exports, leading to supply deficits in several regions. Further support came from increasing pressure from the US and NATO, including threats of sanctions and calls for allies to cut Russian oil purchases.

Silver climbed over 1% on Monday to top $46.5 per ounce, hitting a new 14-year high amid a weakening dollar due to mounting risks of a US government shutdown. Friday’s PCE report showed stable inflationary pressures, strengthening expectations that the Fed has room for further rate cuts this year. Markets are now pricing in about a 90% chance of a rate cut next month and about 65% in December. Supply-demand imbalances added support, with the Silver Institute expecting a fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025 as demand outpaces supply by over 100 million ounces, leading to further stock depletion.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.61%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 1.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week down 0.13%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold its meeting tomorrow. Investors largely expect the RBA to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.60%, while a 25 basis point cut is widely anticipated at the November meeting. The RBA has already cut the rate three times in 2025. Despite the easing, Governor Michele Bullock continues to emphasize a cautious, data-dependent approach, reaffirming the bank’s commitment to the 2-3% inflation target. Second-quarter CPI data confirmed that inflation continues to ease, with headline inflation slowing from 2.4% to 2.1% and trimmed mean CPI falling from 2.9% to 2.7%. However, the August monthly CPI surprised some by rising slightly from 2.8% to 3.0%.

The New Zealand dollar remains pressured by expectations of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets are mostly pricing in a quarter-point rate cut to 2.75% next week, with some even suggesting a slight possibility of a larger half-percent reduction. These expectations have been reinforced by a series of weak economic data, including a Q2 GDP contraction, though comments from new RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, who stressed a commitment to low and stable inflation, have added uncertainty to the policy outlook.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,643.70 +38.98 (+0.59%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,247.29 +299.97 (+0.65%)

DAX (DE40) 23,739.47 +204.64 (+0.87%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,284.83 +70.85 (+0.77%)

USD Index 98.18 -0.37 (-0.38%)

News feed for: 2025.09.29

  • US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR/USD Gains on US Shutdown Fears and Data Watch

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair extended gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.1727. The move reflects market concerns over a potential US government shutdown and caution ahead of key economic releases due this week.

A partial shutdown of US federal agencies could begin as early as Wednesday if Congress fails to pass a funding bill before the fiscal year ends on Tuesday. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with congressional leaders in an effort to reach a compromise.

Investor attention is also focused on upcoming US data, including the September non-farm payrolls report, JOLTS job openings, the ADP private employment survey, and the ISM manufacturing index. Strong indicators last week have tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing, with markets now pricing in roughly 40 basis points of rate cuts by year-end.

Broad-based US dollar weakness has provided additional support for the euro.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD established a consolidation range above 1.1645 before breaking upward into a corrective phase. We expect the pair to advance toward 1.1730, followed by a pullback to 1.1695. A subsequent rise toward 1.1780 is anticipated, at which point the corrective potential is likely to be exhausted. A new decline toward 1.1625 may then develop. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line below zero but exiting the histogram zone—suggesting potential upward momentum toward the zero line.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the completion of a decline to 1.1645, followed by the formation of a corrective structure. The initial advance to 1.1730 appears complete. A dip toward 1.1695 is possible before another rise toward 1.1780. Once this correction concludes, a new decline toward 1.1625 is expected. A break below this level could open the way toward 1.1470. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line above 80 and turning downward toward 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is drawing support from US fiscal uncertainty and a softer dollar, though the broader technical structure remains corrective. Traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of critical US employment and activity data, which may determine the near-term direction for the pair.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USD/JPY Rally Pauses as Yen Seeks Footing

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair slowed its ascent on Friday, stabilising near 149.69 – close to its lowest level in nearly two months. The yen remained under pressure from broad US dollar strength, fueled by robust economic data that tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing.

Recent figures reinforced the resilience of the US economy: weekly jobless claims fell to 218,000, while second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.8% year-on-year, marking the fastest pace in nearly two years.

In Japan, data provided mixed signals. Core inflation in Tokyo held steady at 2.5% in September, matching the August reading but falling short of the 2.8% forecast. The minutes from the Bank of Japan’s July policy meeting revealed that some members are inclined toward further rate hikes, contingent on aligned economic and inflation trends. While rates were held unchanged in September, two dissenting votes suggest that monetary tightening may be approaching sooner than anticipated.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed an initial advance to 149.90. The pair is now forming a consolidation range below this level. A downward breakout would likely initiate a correction towards 148.78, with a potential extension to 147.77 (testing the level from above). Once this correction concludes, a new upward move targeting 151.05 is expected to develop. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains well above zero, although a pullback towards the zero line is anticipated.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair forming a consolidation range around 148.78 before breaking upward and achieving its first target at 149.90. A new range is now forming below this peak. An expected downside breakout should trigger a correction towards 148.78. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is below 50 and falling sharply towards 20.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is taking a breather after its recent rally, caught between a strong US dollar and growing speculation around a more hawkish BoJ. The near-term technical bias suggests a corrective pullback is likely, which could offer a more solid foundation for the next leg upward. Traders will be watching for clearer signals from both central banks to determine the pair’s next sustained move.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Banxico cuts rate by 0.25% as expected. Silver hits $45 per ounce

By JustMarkets 

The US indices fell for a third consecutive session on Thursday as investors weighed strong economic data against expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Dow Jones (US30) dropped by 0.38%, the S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.50%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.50% lower. Data showed the labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims falling to 218,000 for the week ending September 20. Furthermore, Q2 GDP growth was revised higher to an annual rate of 3.8%, supported by robust consumer spending and business investment. Market participants are now repricing the Fed’s next moves, with investor bets on an additional 25 basis point (bp) rate cut in October falling sharply. Technology stocks were hit the hardest, with Oracle tumbling 5% and Tesla dropping 4%. Meanwhile, Intel jumped 9% on news it approached Apple with an investment proposal. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Index, for clues on the Central Bank’s path.

Mexico’s Central Bank, Banxico, cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5% on Thursday. In its statement, the Central Bank noted that global economic activity expanded at a slower pace in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. The bank pointed to persistent trade tensions, which are expected to cause an economic slowdown both globally and in the United States this year and in 2026. The Central Bank still projects headline inflation to reach its 3% target by the third quarter of 2026.

European equity markets declined yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.41%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) dropped 0.27%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.39% lower. The GfK Consumer Climate Index in Germany surprisingly improved slightly for October, though it remained in negative territory. Shares of German company Siemens Healthineers fell approximately 3.5% after the US Administration announced a new national security investigation into imports of robotics, medical devices, and industrial machinery. The European Commission plans to impose tariffs of 25% to 50% on Chinese steel and related products in the coming weeks to protect domestic producers, as the global overcapacity continues to pressure profits and constrain investment in the decarbonization of the European steel industry. Analysts expect China’s steel exports to reach a record high this year, increasing by 4-9% to an estimated 115-120 million tonnes.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) surged over 3% to $2.94 per million British thermal units (mmBTU), reaching a one-week high and continuing a three-session rally. The EIA reported a storage build of 75 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending September 19, which matched expectations. Meanwhile, projections point to warmer-than-normal weather in early October. Feedgas flows to LNG facilities averaged 15.7 bcf/d in September, a slight reduction from August.

Silver (XAG/USD) climbed above $45 per ounce on Thursday, hitting a new 14-year high. Increased industrial demand and tight physical supply outweighed stronger-than-expected US macroeconomic data, which typically pushes up yields and the dollar. On the demand side, greater shipments of photovoltaic panels and electronics, where silver is difficult to substitute, are supporting near-term consumption. Regarding supply, most silver is produced as a byproduct of base metal mining and cannot be quickly ramped up; recent disruptions at smelting and processing facilities in key refining hubs have reduced refining availability, lowered delivery promptness, and increased near-term metal premiums.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by .27%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.59%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) finished 0.09% higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.13%. Weak economic data in New Zealand prompted traders to price in greater policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 bp rate cut to 2.75% in October, with a 30% probability of a larger 50 bp cut. The ANZ-Roy Morgan survey, meanwhile, showed that New Zealand consumer confidence improved in September, suggesting that earlier rate cuts are starting to take effect. The New Zealand dollar lost over 1% for the week, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.

The offshore Yuan stabilized at 7.14 per dollar on Friday but still showed a significant weekly drop amid a strengthening US dollar. The dollar continued to gain as traders revised expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts following a series of better-than-expected economic releases. Adding further pressure on the Yuan was President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new round of punitive tariffs. Effective October 1, a 100% tariff will be placed on branded and proprietary pharmaceutical imports, except for companies that establish manufacturing capacity in the US.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,604.72 −33.25 (−0.50%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,947.32 −173.96 (−0.38%)

DAX (DE40) 23,534.83 −131.98 (−0.56%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,213.98 −36.45 (−0.39%)

USD Index 98.46 +0.59 (+0.60%)

News feed for: 2025.09.26

  • Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:30 (GMT+3);
  • Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Oil prices jumped to $65 a barrel. The Canadian dollar fell to a 4-month low

By JustMarkets 

The US stocks declined for a second consecutive day on Wednesday. The Dow Jones (US30) dropped 0.37%, the S&P 500 (US500) was down 0.28%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) fell by 0.31%. Individual stocks also saw mixed results. Nvidia dropped almost 1% despite announcing a $100 billion partnership with OpenAI. Oracle fell by 1.7%, and Micron Technology was down 2.9% even after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Conversely, Alibaba’s pledge to increase AI spending beyond its initial $50 billion commitment lifted its US-listed shares by 8.2%. Broader market sentiment was weighed down by overvaluation concerns after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation and labor market risks persist and warned that stock prices remain overvalued. On the economic front, new home sales unexpectedly rose in August, a bright spot amid fears of slowing growth and seasonal market weakness.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) fell to a four-month low, breaking the 1.39 mark against the US dollar. This was driven by weaker domestic data and a strengthening US dollar. Markets are repricing a more aggressive easing path for the Bank of Canada (BoC) after the Central Bank cut its policy rate and signaled the possibility of further easing, which reduced the appeal of CAD fixed-income assets. At the same time, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August was 1.9%, with core measures largely holding steady, giving the BoC room to ease and lowering the incentive for foreign capital to remain in the country.

European stock markets were mixed yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.57%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.24%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.04%. The DAX in Frankfurt saw a slight gain for the second day, primarily supported by defense stocks following comments from Donald Trump about Ukraine. Trump signaled a major policy shift on Tuesday, suggesting that Ukraine could retake all its territory from Russia. In other news, German business sentiment in September unexpectedly dropped sharply from August, according to IFO data. On the corporate front, defense companies like Renk (+7%), Hensoldt (+6.7%), and Rheinmetall (+3.5%) were notable standouts. Other top performers included Commerzbank (+4.4%), Zalando (+2.7%), and Siemens Energy (+2.3%).

WTI crude oil prices rose over 2% to the $65 per barrel mark on Wednesday, extending a 1.8% gain from the previous session. This was fueled by a drop in US crude inventories, which intensified supply concerns. Data from the EIA showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 0.607 million barrels, defying market expectations for a build. This came after talks to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan stalled as two major producers demanded debt repayment guarantees, keeping pipeline flows to Turkey halted. Geopolitical risks also continued to support prices, as NATO pledged a “resolute” response to Russia’s airspace incursions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and pipelines.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.47%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.37%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) finished the day down 0.92%.

Sentiment improved after reports that China is developing new regulations to boost competition in the food delivery sector, including capping service fees for restaurants, increasing subsidy transparency, and limiting platform fees. Alibaba rose nearly 10% after pledging over $53 billion in AI investments, surpassing its previous target, and releasing a new model. However, further gains were capped by concerns over Typhoon Ragasa, the world’s most powerful cyclone this year. Cathay Pacific announced it would cancel more than 500 regional flights, reposition aircraft, and gradually resume operations from Thursday into Friday.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose to $0.659 on Thursday, recovering some of its losses from the previous session, as reduced bets on domestic policy easing outweighed a strengthening US dollar. Investors scaled back expectations for a near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after recent data showed Australia’s monthly CPI grew by 3.0% in August, the fastest pace in a year and slightly above expectations of 2.9%. Markets are now pricing in just a 6.5% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the RBA’s meeting next week, and a 38.2% chance of a cut at the following meeting in November.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,637.97 −18.95 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,121.28 −171.50 (−0.37%)

DAX (DE40) 23,666.81 +55.48 (+0.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,250.43 +27.11 (+0.29%)

USD Index 97.89 +0.63 (+0.64%)

News feed for: 2025.09.25

  • Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland SNB Policy Rate at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

GBP/USD Under Pressure as Markets Question Bank of England’s Stance

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure, trading around 1.3460, as it contends with a mix of conflicting factors.

In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that inflation is expected to decline next year but confirmed that the central bank’s policy will remain restrictive. He pointed to a weakening labour market and cautious consumers, whose savings are twice as high as pre-pandemic levels. Bailey acknowledged that interest rates would likely continue to fall but emphasised that the pace of easing would be strictly dependent on incoming inflation data.

Across the Atlantic, the US dollar is holding its ground following the Fed’s rate cut last week. Markets are currently pricing in approximately 43 basis points of additional easing by year-end, although there is no clear consensus on whether a move will occur at the next meeting. Recent comments from Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials consistently underscore that any further action will be data-dependent, hinging on fresh inflation and employment figures.

Consequently, the pound is weighed down by domestic economic concerns and the BoE’s cautious stance. The dollar, in turn, finds support from expectations of a gradual and measured Fed policy. This creates a stalemate marked by uncertainty, which is clearly reflected in the current range-bound dynamics of GBP/USD.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 1.3544 before breaking lower to achieve the local target of the decline at 1.3427. Today, we anticipate the development of a consolidation range above this level. An upward breakout from this range would open the potential for a corrective move towards 1.3544 (testing it as resistance from below). Following this, we would expect the resumption of the downtrend targeting 1.3366. This bearish outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is located below zero and pointing decisively downward.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair forming the second leg of a downward impulse towards 1.3422, marking a local target. Upon its completion, we anticipate a potential correction towards the 1.3544 level. This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 80 and falling sharply towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair is caught between a cautious BoE and a data-dependent Fed, leading to a tentative equilibrium. The technical structure leans bearish, suggesting that any near-term rebounds are likely to be corrective within a broader downtrend, contingent on upcoming economic data from both sides of the Atlantic.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.