InvestMacro

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Market Mashup

It is certainly shaping up to be another wild week for financial markets thanks to the US debt limit saga. The risk pendulum continues to swing back and forth on this major development with volatility expected to intensify as the so-called default X-date looms.

Markets could be injected with even more volatility thanks to geopolitical tensions, growth concerns, and more data from major economies. Later today, investors will direct their attention towards the minutes from the May FOMC meeting which could offer more clues about the central bank’s next move.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on ahead of the Fed minutes.

Dollar holds firm

The dollar has been trading a little firmer despite the impasse in US debt-ceiling negotiations. Bulls seem to be drawing strength from hawkish Fed speakers and technical forces. Prices have turned bullish on the daily charts with support found at 103.00. The upside momentum has already taken prices towards 103.80 with 104.00 the next key level of interest.

EURUSD breakdown alert?

The EURUSD remains bearish on the daily charts with bears grinding down the 1.0760 support level. A solid daily close below this point could signal a decline toward 1.0686. Should bulls push back above 1.8110 – where the 100-day SMA resides, this could open a path back toward 1.0845 and 50-day SMA at 1.0900.

GBPUSD wobbles above 1.2370

Sterling seems to be under pressure despite the UK inflation figures printing higher than expected. A solid breakdown below the 1.2370 level could open a path toward 1.2280. Should 1.2370 prove to be reliable support, prices may rebound back toward 1.2550.

AUDUSD poised to sink further?

The AUDUSD has smashed into the 0.6570 support level. A breakdown below this point may see 0.6480. If bulls are able to defend 0.6570, prices could rebound toward 0.6630.

NZDUSD breaches key support

Our trade of the week (NZDUSD), tumbled this morning after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates by 25 basis points and signalled that it could be done with rate hikes. Prices are trading below the 200-day SMA as of writing and could hit 0.6100 in the short term. Below this level may see the NZDUSD hit levels not seen since November 2022 around 0.6070.

USDJPY upwards and onwards

After creating a fresh higher low of around 137.40, USDJPY bulls continue to eye higher levels. Further upside could be expected if a solid daily close above 139.00 is achieved. If prices slip back below 137.40, tough support around the 200-day SMA may limit downside losses.

SPX500_m trapped in wide range.

The index remains trapped within a range with support at 4050 and resistance at 4200. A potent fundamental catalyst may be needed for prices to experience a bullish or bearish breakout.

Gold approaches 50-day SMA

Gold remains heavily influenced by fundamental forces. Prices are choppy and noisy on the daily timeframe. Should $1970 prove to be reliable support, the upside could take prices towards the 50-day SMA and psychological $2000 level. If prices dip back under $1970, gold may see $1945.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 May

Is generative AI bad for the environment? A computer scientist explains the carbon footprint of ChatGPT and its cousins

By Kate Saenko, Boston University

Generative AI is the hot new technology behind chatbots and image generators. But how hot is it making the planet?

As an AI researcher, I often worry about the energy costs of building artificial intelligence models. The more powerful the AI, the more energy it takes. What does the emergence of increasingly more powerful generative AI models mean for society’s future carbon footprint?

“Generative” refers to the ability of an AI algorithm to produce complex data. The alternative is “discriminative” AI, which chooses between a fixed number of options and produces just a single number. An example of a discriminative output is choosing whether to approve a loan application.

Generative AI can create much more complex outputs, such as a sentence, a paragraph, an image or even a short video. It has long been used in applications like smart speakers to generate audio responses, or in autocomplete to suggest a search query. However, it only recently gained the ability to generate humanlike language and realistic photos.

AI chatbots and image generators run on thousands of computers housed in data centers like this Google facility in Oregon.
Tony Webster/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Using more power than ever

The exact energy cost of a single AI model is difficult to estimate, and includes the energy used to manufacture the computing equipment, create the model and use the model in production. In 2019, researchers found that creating a generative AI model called BERT with 110 million parameters consumed the energy of a round-trip transcontinental flight for one person. The number of parameters refers to the size of the model, with larger models generally being more skilled. Researchers estimated that creating the much larger GPT-3, which has 175 billion parameters, consumed 1,287 megawatt hours of electricity and generated 552 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, the equivalent of 123 gasoline-powered passenger vehicles driven for one year. And that’s just for getting the model ready to launch, before any consumers start using it.

Size is not the only predictor of carbon emissions. The open-access BLOOM model, developed by the BigScience project in France, is similar in size to GPT-3 but has a much lower carbon footprint, consuming 433 MWh of electricity in generating 30 tons of CO2eq. A study by Google found that for the same size, using a more efficient model architecture and processor and a greener data center can reduce the carbon footprint by 100 to 1,000 times.

Larger models do use more energy during their deployment. There is limited data on the carbon footprint of a single generative AI query, but some industry figures estimate it to be four to five times higher than that of a search engine query. As chatbots and image generators become more popular, and as Google and Microsoft incorporate AI language models into their search engines, the number of queries they receive each day could grow exponentially.

AI bots for search

A few years ago, not many people outside of research labs were using models like BERT or GPT. That changed on Nov. 30, 2022, when OpenAI released ChatGPT. According to the latest available data, ChatGPT had over 1.5 billion visits in March 2023. Microsoft incorporated ChatGPT into its search engine, Bing, and made it available to everyone on May 4, 2023. If chatbots become as popular as search engines, the energy costs of deploying the AIs could really add up. But AI assistants have many more uses than just search, such as writing documents, solving math problems and creating marketing campaigns.

Another problem is that AI models need to be continually updated. For example, ChatGPT was only trained on data from up to 2021, so it does not know about anything that happened since then. The carbon footprint of creating ChatGPT isn’t public information, but it is likely much higher than that of GPT-3. If it had to be recreated on a regular basis to update its knowledge, the energy costs would grow even larger.

One upside is that asking a chatbot can be a more direct way to get information than using a search engine. Instead of getting a page full of links, you get a direct answer as you would from a human, assuming issues of accuracy are mitigated. Getting to the information quicker could potentially offset the increased energy use compared to a search engine.

Ways forward

The future is hard to predict, but large generative AI models are here to stay, and people will probably increasingly turn to them for information. For example, if a student needs help solving a math problem now, they ask a tutor or a friend, or consult a textbook. In the future, they will probably ask a chatbot. The same goes for other expert knowledge such as legal advice or medical expertise.

While a single large AI model is not going to ruin the environment, if a thousand companies develop slightly different AI bots for different purposes, each used by millions of customers, the energy use could become an issue. More research is needed to make generative AI more efficient. The good news is that AI can run on renewable energy. By bringing the computation to where green energy is more abundant, or scheduling computation for times of day when renewable energy is more available, emissions can be reduced by a factor of 30 to 40, compared to using a grid dominated by fossil fuels.

Finally, societal pressure may be helpful to encourage companies and research labs to publish the carbon footprints of their AI models, as some already do. In the future, perhaps consumers could even use this information to choose a “greener” chatbot.

About the Author:

Kate Saenko, Associate Professor of Computer Science, Boston University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

23 May

JPY plunged into devaluation again. Overview for 23.05.2023

By RoboForex.com

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, continues to decline. The current USDJPY quote is 138.37.

The strong US dollar, which is in demand as a safe haven asset, is having a remarkable influence on the Japanese yen.

Fresh Japanese statistics have attracted attention. The PMI report turned out positive: the services sector is reviving thanks to the rebound of the tourist flow into the country. Activity is also increasing in the manufacturing sector.

Both reports are favourable for Japan’s economy, which is still lagging behind its global counterparts in terms of recovery. Providers of services report noticeable demand and a record increase in business activity. Service-oriented businesses rebounded noticeably after Japan lifted restrictions on the entry of foreign tourists to the country.

Earlier, Japan presented its first-quarter GDP report, which also turned out favourable. It is clear that the Japanese economy has gained momentum. This could eventually be a good signal for the JPY.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 May

Intel is changing the vector of development. The Japanese index reached a 33-year-high

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices traded multidirectional yesterday. By the close of the stock market Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42%, S&P 500 (US500) was up by 0.02%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.50% on Monday.

The uncertainty in the financial markets still remains. On the one hand, there is still no decision by politicians concerning the US government debt increase. On the other hand, the FOMC is divided on whether to raise the interest rate in June by another 0.25% or to stop the tightening cycle. At the moment, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 75% chance that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged next month. But a week ago, there was a 95% chance of that scenario.

On Monday, Intel Corp. (INTC) revealed some new details about the artificial intelligence (AI) computing chip it plans to introduce in 2025. The company plans to radically change its development strategy to compete with Nvidia (NVDA) Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Inc. At a supercomputer conference in Germany on Monday, Intel said its future Falcon Shores chip would have 288 gigabytes of memory and support 8-bit floating-point computing. These specifications are important for artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT services.

Yesterday, China banned some sales of Micron Technology Inc (MU) chips to key industries in its country, citing national security concerns. MU shares fell more than 3%.

Equity markets in Europe also traded without a single dynamic yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.32%, French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.18% on Monday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) was up by 0.57%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.18% yesterday.

The European Central Bank needs to raise interest rates some more and then leave them in restrictive territory for a while to bring inflation down to its medium-term target of 2%, Spanish Central Bank Governor Pablo Hernández de Cos said Monday. Investors expect the ECB to raise borrowing costs above 4% by the end of the summer.

Analysts at UBS are forecasting gold prices rising to $2100 an ounce by the end of 2023 and to $2200 an ounce by the end of 2024 as the reasons are given for the preservation of increased geopolitical risks and high inflation.

Oil prices rose Monday in response to a more positive tone in negotiations between the White House and its congressional Republicans to raise the US national debt ceiling before the June 1 default deadline. Higher demand and gasoline prices have also influenced energy trade sentiment ahead of the upcoming Memorial Day celebration on May 29, which unofficially marks the start of summer car travel in the United States.

European gas prices, which have been falling in recent weeks, are expected to remain low amid record-high supplies of liquefied natural gas by US exporters. European Union gas supplies are safe for the summer, and it is too early to tell if the EU will be able to prevent price shocks in the winter.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday, except for the Australian index. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.90% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 1.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.17% on the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.61%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.22% on the day.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 reached a 33-year high. Japanese stocks have been on the rise over the past two weeks, boosted in large part by strong seasonal reports and bets that the Bank of Japan will maintain its ultra-loose policy. Data on Tuesday showed that the country’s manufacturing sector rose unexpectedly in May, while service sector growth hit a record high, indicating some resilience in the world’s third-largest economy.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,192.63 +0.65 (+0.016%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,286.58 −140.05 (−0.42%)

DAX (DE40) 16,223.99 −51.39 (−0.32%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,770.99 +14.12 (+0.18%)

USD Index 103.26 +0.06 +0.06%

Important events for today:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone French Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 May

Markets Gripped By US Debt Ceiling Talks

By ForexTime

Asian markets gave up earlier gains on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance after US debt ceiling negotiations ended “productive talks” without a deal. However, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy both expressed optimism about reaching a breakthrough to avoid a default. European futures are pointing to a positive open ahead of the preliminary PMI figures for the eurozone in May. Wall Street closed mixed and remains influenced by the US debt ceiling developments. In the currency space, the dollar crept higher drawing strength from hawkish Federal officials while gold fell for a second day amid hints of progress towards avoiding a US default.

Big week for USD

The dollar could be injected with fresh volatility this week due to the US debt limit negotiations, Fed minutes, and top-tier US economic data.

Dollar bulls were able to draw support in the previous session from the productive US debt limit talks and hawkish comments from Fed officials. Midweek, all eyes will be on the minutes from the May FOMC meeting which could offer more clues about the central bank’s next move. After proceeding with a 25-basis point hike in May, the Fed signalled a potential pause. It will be interesting to see what the minutes show in regard to the thinking of policymakers and how united they were around the idea of 5.25% being the peak level of rates. Of course, we have heard from a slew of Fed officials since the meeting which could make the minutes relatively stale.

On the data front, much focus will be on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) scheduled to be released on Friday. The April PCE report is forecast to show headline prices rising 0.3% month-over-month after March’s 0.1% increase, while the core PCE deflator is projected to rise 0.3%, the same as March. The core personal consumption expenditures price index is seen rising 4.6% year-over-year, the same as seen in March. Any further evidence of cooling inflationary pressures may reinforce the argument around the Fed pausing and eventually cutting interest rates later in 2023.

Currency spotlight – GBPUSD

GBPUSD could see more weakness if the pending UK inflation data on Wednesday shows signs of cooling inflationary pressures. Markets forecast inflation cooling to 8.2% in April, down from the 10.1% in March. If expectations match reality, this would be the sharpest decline in more than 30 years, bringing an end to seven consecutive months of double-digit inflation. Looking at the technical picture, GBPUSD may slip towards 1.2370 on expectations around the BoE potentially pausing rate hikes. A solid breakdown below 1.2370 could signal a further selloff towards 1.2280. If prices push back above 1.2450, bulls may target 1.2550.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold

Gold prices got no love on Tuesday morning, shedding 0.5% as optimism over the US debt ceiling developments dampened its allure. This promises to be another volatile week for the precious metal thanks to the cocktail of risk events and economic releases. If US debt talks continue to head in the right direction and hopes continue to rise over a deal reached, this could drag prices lower as risk appetite returns. Expect gold to also be influenced by the Fed minutes and key US data including the inflation report on Friday. Focusing on the technicals, sustained weakness below $1970 may open a path toward $1945 and $1900 respectively. Bulls need to claw their way back above $2000 to get back into the game.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 May

The US Federal Reserve officials are hinting at a pause in the rate hike cycle. China has kept rates at historic lows

By JustMarkets

Problems with the US debt ceiling were back in the spotlight late last week. Investors are scared by the likelihood of default if politicians can’t reach an agreement. While the probability of such a scenario is low, the rise in the dollar last week showed how investors were buying dollars as a safe haven currency. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33% (+0.32% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.14% (+1.58% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down 0.24% on Friday (+2.90% for the week).

US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet again today to continue negotiations on raising the debt ceiling. Speaking to reporters at the US Capitol, McCarthy said positive discussions had taken place to resolve the crisis. Before leaving Japan after the G7 summit earlier Sunday, Biden indicated that he was willing to cut spending along with tax adjustments to reach an agreement, but the Republicans’ latest ceiling proposal was unacceptable.

In his speech Friday, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a pause in the rate hike cycle, indicating that the Fed can afford to examine the situation, given how far it has come. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said he might support keeping interest rates on hold at the Central Bank’s next meeting in June to give officials more time to assess the impact of past rate hikes and inflation forecasts.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) jumped by 0.69% (+1.93% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.61% on Friday (+0.65% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 Index (ES35) added 0.50% (-0.11% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was on the rise by 0.19% (+0.03% for the week).

G7 leaders on Saturday agreed to a new initiative to counter economic coercion and pledged to take measures to ensure that any actors attempting to use economic dependence as a weapon would fail and face the consequences. The world is facing an alarming increase in cases of economic coercion aimed at exploiting economic vulnerabilities. Analysts believe that China will be the first to be affected. In turn, the G7 countries call on China to put pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine and respect Taiwan’s status and fair trade rules. The statement also commits G7 leaders to deepen cooperation to strengthen supply chains and calls for a greater role for low-income countries in building economic resilience.

Britain on Friday published plans to ban imports of Russian diamonds, copper, aluminum, and nickel and announced new sanctions against Russia targeting companies linked to suspected Ukrainian grain theft.

Oil prices fell Friday as investors fear that US policymakers will fail to agree on a new debt ceiling and trigger a default that would hurt the economy and reduce fuel demand. On the other hand, according to energy company Baker Hughes Co. the number of oil rigs in the US, an indicator of future production, fell by 11 last week to 575, the biggest weekly drop since September 2021. Analysts at the National Australia Bank said that while the possibility of additional rate hikes adds to concerns about weak demand in the United States, oil prices could rise because of stronger demand in China during 2023.

Asian markets traded without a single trend last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 4.27% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.60% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.38% for the week, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) lost 0.80%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up 0.31% for the week.

The People’s Bank of China on Monday (PBoC) kept its key lending rate near an all-time low of 3.65%, but the slowdown in the country’s growth has markets bracing for a possible rate cut this year.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+14.43%), cotton (+7.6%), orange juice (+6.86%), gasoline (+6.16%), coffee (+4.29%), cocoa (+2.85%), and WTI oil (+2.66%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on soybeans (-6.1%), corn (-5.12%), and wheat (-4.76%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,191.98 −6.07 (−0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,426.63 −109.28 (−0.33%)

DAX (DE40) 16,275.38 +112.02 (+0.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,756.87 +14.57 (+0.19%)

USD Index 103.19 -0.39 -0.38%

Important events for today:

– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
– Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 17:50 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 17:50 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 May

Trade Of The Week: 3 Reasons Why NZDUSD Could Breakout

By ForexTime

This could be a wild week for the New Zealand Dollar thanks to fundamental and technical forces.

The New Zealand dollar is the best-performing G10 currency month-to-date, gaining roughly 1.7% against the dollar.

On the fundamental side, the NZD bulls continue to draw support from expectations around a 25-basis point hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) at its May meeting. Taking a glance at the technicals, prices remain trapped within a wide range with key support at 0.6150 where the 200-day SMA resides while resistance is just above the 100-day SMA at 0.6320.

A major breakout could be on the horizon for the NZDUSD and here are 3 reasons why…

Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision

Markets widely expect the RBNZ to raise interest rates by 25bps, taking the cash rate to 5.5%. This would be the highest among G10 nations and 12th straight increase.

Although inflationary pressures slightly cooled in the first quarter of 2023, policymakers still see more upside risks due to severe weather events. Investors will also keep a close on the bank’s new projections for growth and inflation which could offer fresh insight into the RBNZ’s next move. Any hawkish bias has the potential to strengthen NZD bulls.

Buying sentiment towards the New Zealand dollar may receive a boost if the RBNZ moves ahead with the expected 25 bps rate hike and signals further increases. This may push the NZDUSD towards the 0.6380 resistance.
If the RBNZ shocks market with a 50-basis point hike like what was witnessed back in April, this could send the NZD surging across the board, pushing prices beyond 0.6830.

Extreme dollar volatility

This could be an explosively volatile trading week for the US dollar thanks to the US debt limit negotiations, Fed minutes, speeches, and key US economic data.

Despite the recent news around debt limit talks resuming on Monday, investors are likely to remain jittery as the window to strike a deal shrinks by the day. The Fed minutes and speeches from policymakers could provide more clues about the central bank’s next move. On top of this, much attention will be on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – especially after the central bank stressed that incoming data would influence monetary policy decisions. With so many forces influencing the dollar, this could translate to heightened volatility.

If dollar bulls dominate the scene this week, this could see the NZDUSD decline back toward the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6150.
Should all the combined forces translate to a weaker dollar, the New Zealand dollar has a stronger potential to experience a bullish breakout.

NZDUSD in breakout mode?

The NZDUSD has been trapped within a wide range since early February 2023.

The first major resistance can be found at 0.6380 and secondary resistance at 0.6310. Looking at support levels, there is strong support at 0.6150, followed by another level of defence at 0.6100. It seems that the currency pair needs a potent fundamental spark to experience a strong breakout from this current range.

Should bulls seize the driving seat this week, prices could experience a breakout above 0.6310 and 0.6380, respectively. A weekly close above 0.6380 could signal a further incline toward 0.6460. Alternatively, if 0.6310 proves to be reliable resistance, bears may target the 0.6150 support – where the 200-day SMA resides and 0.6100.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 May

Currency Speculators raise British Pound bullish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (8,065 contracts) with the EuroFX (7,667 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,603 contracts), Swiss Franc (2,608 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,506 contracts) and Bitcoin (588 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-4,401 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,776 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,642 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-727 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-988 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise British Pound bullish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rising bullishness of the speculator’s positioning in the British pound sterling. Large speculative pound Sterling positions gained this week for a second consecutive week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks.

Sterling weekly positions have now increased by a total of +36,677 contracts over the past seven-week period. This bullish turn in bets has taken the overall net speculator position from a total of -24,084 contracts on March 28th to a total of +12,593 contracts this week, the best level since November of 2021. The sterling position has been in a bullish level for five straight weeks after a streak of sixty straight weeks in bearish territory through April 11th.

The sterling’s front-month future’s price has been on the uptrend since bottoming in September with a low at the 1.0392 exchange rate. This week’s closing price of 1.2457 is approximately 20 percent higher than that September low.

Helping boost the sterling in recent months is the rising interest rate as the Bank of England increased it’s Bank Rate to 4.5 percent at the May 11th meeting. The inflation rate in the UK currently is right around 10 percent (with a target of 2 percent) and investor’s are expecting more rate rises to come, according to ING.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	30,880	25	9,514	41	-12,357	56	2,843	48
EUR	789,930	88	187,089	90	-238,333	10	51,244	61
GBP	247,165	66	12,593	80	-17,729	22	5,136	68
JPY	200,515	47	-64,791	29	76,137	73	-11,346	30
CHF	43,681	48	-1,859	50	2,838	50	-979	54
CAD	161,195	38	-42,990	14	44,533	86	-1,543	19
AUD	167,020	63	-53,594	35	61,902	65	-8,308	32
NZD	36,187	24	-2,075	48	1,943	51	132	52
MXN	254,037	57	73,635	100	-79,465	0	5,830	92
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	50,633	40	33,606	79	-36,899	19	3,293	70
Bitcoin	13,043	56	1,011	95	-1,463	0	452	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (90 percent), British Pound (80 percent) and the Brazilian Real (79 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (29 percent) and the Australian Dollar (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (40.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.5 percent)
EuroFX (90.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (87.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (72.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (31.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (49.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (48.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.8 percent)
Bitcoin (94.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (84.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (24 percent), the EuroFX (17 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-8 percent) and Japanese Yen (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (16.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (13.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-24.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (5.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (24.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (14.1 percent)
Bitcoin (28.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.9	9.1	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	49.1	9.1
– Net Position:	9,514	-12,357	2,843
– Gross Longs:	20,669	2,817	5,644
– Gross Shorts:	11,155	15,174	2,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	56.1	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	6.0	8.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 187,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	52.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	82.9	5.3
– Net Position:	187,089	-238,333	51,244
– Gross Longs:	258,736	416,383	93,212
– Gross Shorts:	71,647	654,716	41,968
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	10.0	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-14.7	-0.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	50.8	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	58.0	10.4
– Net Position:	12,593	-17,729	5,136
– Gross Longs:	77,388	125,675	30,873
– Gross Shorts:	64,795	143,404	25,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	22.0	68.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-18.1	-1.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	71.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	33.0	18.9
– Net Position:	-64,791	76,137	-11,346
– Gross Longs:	29,494	142,392	26,570
– Gross Shorts:	94,285	66,255	37,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	72.8	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	11.6	-32.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	42.4	33.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	35.9	35.7
– Net Position:	-1,859	2,838	-979
– Gross Longs:	8,561	18,524	14,600
– Gross Shorts:	10,420	15,686	15,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	49.7	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-13.2	6.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	60.9	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	33.2	20.0
– Net Position:	-42,990	44,533	-1,543
– Gross Longs:	28,514	98,089	30,767
– Gross Shorts:	71,504	53,556	32,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	86.4	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-9.3	-4.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -53,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	58.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	21.7	16.8
– Net Position:	-53,594	61,902	-8,308
– Gross Longs:	43,903	98,069	19,676
– Gross Shorts:	97,497	36,167	27,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	65.1	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	18.7	3.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	49.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	43.8	9.8
– Net Position:	-2,075	1,943	132
– Gross Longs:	14,610	17,789	3,695
– Gross Shorts:	16,685	15,846	3,563
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	51.1	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-1.8	-14.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 73,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	43.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	75.0	1.2
– Net Position:	73,635	-79,465	5,830
– Gross Longs:	133,268	111,178	8,968
– Gross Shorts:	59,633	190,643	3,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-11.3	3.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.4	14.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	87.6	2.4
– Net Position:	33,606	-36,899	3,293
– Gross Longs:	38,661	7,439	4,485
– Gross Shorts:	5,055	44,338	1,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	19.3	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-26.2	13.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.1	1.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.3	12.5	6.8
– Net Position:	1,011	-1,463	452
– Gross Longs:	10,055	163	1,334
– Gross Shorts:	9,044	1,626	882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.6	0.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.4	-53.7	-7.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 May

Bonds Speculators continue to raise record bearish bets in 2-Year and 5-Year Treasuries

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (286,007 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (39,256 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25,171 contracts), the Eurodollar (18,226 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (11,539 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (11,548 contracts), and the Fed Funds (7,746 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-103,690 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-13,271 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Speculators continue to raise record bearish bets in 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds

Highlighting the COT bonds data once again this week was an increase in the record bearish speculator positions for both the 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds.

The large speculators in the 2-Year bonds sharply added to their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Speculators have now added more than -100,000 contracts to the bearish position in each of the past two weeks. There has been a total of -356,734 contracts added to the overall bearish standing in the past five weeks which has taken the position from -496,841 on April 11th to a total new historical record bearish level of -853,575 contracts this week.

Meanwhile, the 5-Year Bond speculator positions only edged slightly lower this week but have now been more bearish for four straight weeks. The last four weeks have added a total of -169,411 contracts to the net speculator level and has brought the current bearish position to a record total of -923,913 contracts.

The 2-Year and 5-Years front-month futures prices were on retreat this week as were most of the bonds across the US Treasury yield curve. The 5-Year price closed at the 108.22 level but remains approximately 3 percent higher from the most recent low hit in October. The 2-Year futures price closed the week at 102.19 and only approximately 1.25 percent higher than the recent low reached in March.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	550,147	0	-36,884	73	39,568	23	-2,684	99
FedFunds	1,585,578	54	-67,571	31	88,368	71	-20,797	50
2-Year	3,164,301	100	-853,575	0	772,391	100	81,184	95
Long T-Bond	1,236,267	67	-61,581	65	-315	10	61,896	94
10-Year	4,718,099	100	-692,442	6	570,703	83	121,739	100
5-Year	5,100,803	100	-923,913	0	872,715	99	51,198	95

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (81 percent) and the Eurodollar (73 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (31.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (30.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (60.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (23.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.5 percent)
Eurodollar (73.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (72.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (81.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (57.8 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the Eurodollar (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (10 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-37 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (11.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-23.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-14.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-28.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (8.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
Eurodollar (15.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (2.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-32.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,884 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	60.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	53.5	11.5
– Net Position:	-36,884	39,568	-2,684
– Gross Longs:	155,249	333,675	60,427
– Gross Shorts:	192,133	294,107	63,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	22.7	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-18.5	35.7

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -166,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 286,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -452,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	61.5	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	59.8	0.5
– Net Position:	-166,821	176,705	-9,884
– Gross Longs:	1,503,562	6,133,861	41,542
– Gross Shorts:	1,670,383	5,957,156	51,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	19.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-2.4	-2.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -67,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	76.7	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	71.1	3.3
– Net Position:	-67,571	88,368	-20,797
– Gross Longs:	69,674	1,216,347	31,381
– Gross Shorts:	137,245	1,127,979	52,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	70.6	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-8.3	-21.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -853,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -103,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -749,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	82.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	58.1	4.6
– Net Position:	-853,575	772,391	81,184
– Gross Longs:	290,539	2,612,188	227,803
– Gross Shorts:	1,144,114	1,839,797	146,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	94.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.3	35.3	29.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -923,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -910,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	81.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	64.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-923,913	872,715	51,198
– Gross Longs:	435,965	4,177,142	368,639
– Gross Shorts:	1,359,878	3,304,427	317,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.1	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	12.3	6.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -692,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 39,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -731,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	76.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	64.0	7.1
– Net Position:	-692,442	570,703	121,739
– Gross Longs:	527,490	3,588,001	454,956
– Gross Shorts:	1,219,932	3,017,298	333,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	82.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	-5.2	25.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -186,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 25,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -211,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	62.1	14.3
– Net Position:	-186,427	267,999	-81,572
– Gross Longs:	173,884	1,340,651	164,624
– Gross Shorts:	360,311	1,072,652	246,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	91.6	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-2.4	6.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	76.1	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	76.2	9.9
– Net Position:	-61,581	-315	61,896
– Gross Longs:	91,193	941,115	183,809
– Gross Shorts:	152,774	941,430	121,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	10.5	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.1	-29.5	10.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -388,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -400,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	80.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	58.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-388,980	328,975	60,005
– Gross Longs:	97,884	1,192,422	183,052
– Gross Shorts:	486,864	863,447	123,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	65.3	99.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-12.6	5.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

20 May

Palladium Speculators trim bearish bets for 2nd week as sentiment & prices improve

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals this week was Palladium with a gain of 731 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-16,000 contracts), Silver (-8,545 contracts), Copper (-7,742 contracts), Steel (-524 contracts) and Platinum (-2,261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium speculators trim their bearish bets for 2nd week as sentiment & prices improve

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the improvement in bets for the Palladium speculative positions. Palladium was the only metal with a gain in speculator bets this week and has now risen for two straight weeks. Palladium has also gained in three out of the past five weeks. The current net speculator position of -4,916 contracts is the least bearish standing out of the past fourteen weeks.

The speculator positioning has been improving for Palladium as the strength index score (speculator positioning range of past three years) came out of a bearish extreme position this week for the first time since February 7th. Palladium’s strength index has improved by 16 percentage points over the past six weeks.

Fundamentally, the outlook for Palladium has taken a hit with car manufacturers looking to use Platinum instead of Palladium for parts, especially in electric cars. Despite the pullback from manufacturers, recent reports have shown the both Platinum and Palladium supply will be in deficits this year, possibly putting a floor under prices.

Palladium prices have bounced off of a major support level at $1,400 in recent weeks and closed this week above $1,520. Palladium raced as high as $3,425 in March of 2022 before dropping sharply into a downtrend that has extended into this year. Palladium bulls hope that the recent drop to $1,333 in March marks a new bottom as it coincides with the 2020 pandemic low-point as well.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	521,832	46	179,814	56	-211,557	42	31,743	60
Silver	140,139	26	23,815	52	-37,067	49	13,252	40
Copper	210,415	51	-32,607	0	28,695	98	3,912	43
Palladium	12,761	93	-4,916	20	5,388	82	-472	13
Platinum	73,410	83	25,823	75	-30,405	31	4,582	30

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (75 percent) and Steel (60 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Silver (52 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (56.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.3 percent)
Silver (52.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (64.4 percent)
Copper (0.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.9 percent)
Platinum (75.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (80.4 percent)
Palladium (20.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.4 percent)
Steel (60.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (61.9 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (24 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (-7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-26 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (6.2 percent)
Silver (3.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.1 percent)
Copper (-26.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.7 percent)
Platinum (24.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.9 percent)
Palladium (16.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.3 percent)
Steel (-0.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 179,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	26.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	67.0	4.4
– Net Position:	179,814	-211,557	31,743
– Gross Longs:	255,250	138,322	54,852
– Gross Shorts:	75,436	349,879	23,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	42.3	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	2.6	21.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	30.7	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	57.2	8.8
– Net Position:	23,815	-37,067	13,252
– Gross Longs:	60,440	43,026	25,607
– Gross Shorts:	36,625	80,093	12,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	49.0	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-6.8	17.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	47.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	33.9	7.3
– Net Position:	-32,607	28,695	3,912
– Gross Longs:	59,693	100,023	19,241
– Gross Shorts:	92,300	71,328	15,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.8	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.3	28.5	-24.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	28.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	70.3	3.7
– Net Position:	25,823	-30,405	4,582
– Gross Longs:	39,962	21,228	7,282
– Gross Shorts:	14,139	51,633	2,700
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	30.6	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.0	-23.2	10.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	61.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	19.7	12.6
– Net Position:	-4,916	5,388	-472
– Gross Longs:	1,782	7,900	1,136
– Gross Shorts:	6,698	2,512	1,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	82.4	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-13.6	-6.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	62.4	1.0
– Net Position:	-4,420	4,502	-82
– Gross Longs:	2,997	21,755	185
– Gross Shorts:	7,417	17,253	267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	40.1	8.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	1.6	-34.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

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