InvestMacro

Japanese Yen Awaits Intervention Amid Weakness

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair stabilised around 151.35 by Tuesday, not far from its recent peaks, as the weakness of the Japanese yen has prompted verbal interventions from Japanese authorities.

Japan’s Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, mentioned that measures to normalise the yen are quite likely. He cited excessive volatility as increasing uncertainty for the country’s trading partners and creating adverse conditions for business operations.

Monetary policy official Masato Kanda remarked that the yen’s current weakness does not reflect fundamental factors, labelling recent depreciation waves as speculative. Kanda stated that authorities are closely monitoring currency movements and feel the need to “keep a finger on the pulse” of the market. Japan is ready to respond to yen volatility appropriately, though decisions are yet to be made.

The yen’s decline gained momentum last week when the Bank of Japan raised its interest rate for the first time in 17 years, ending eight years of negative interest rates. The capital market was prepared for this move, as the BoJ had meticulously laid the groundwork for such a step.

The Bank of Japan intends to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for an extended period, which acts against the yen’s value.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart of USD/JPY, a growth wave to 151.85 has been completed. This target is local and estimated. The market is currently forming a consolidation range below this level. With a downward breakout from this range, a correction to 149.12 is possible, after which a new growth wave to 152.70 is anticipated. The MACD oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line directed downwards towards the zero line.

On the H1 chart of USD/JPY, a narrow consolidation range has formed around 151.31. A downward breakout and continuation of the correction to 150.75 are expected. Breaking through this level would open potential towards reaching 149.20, followed by an increase to 151.85. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and preparing for a decline to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Mar

NETH25 index chasing new record highs!

By ForexTime

FXTM launches 6 new stock indices
NETH25 gaining more than Gold, US stock indices so far in 2024
NETH25 tracks 25 largest and most-traded Dutch stocks
NETH25 index includes ASML – Europe’s most-valuable tech company
Experts predict this stock index could rise another 8.6% in 12 months

FXTM’s new NETH25 stock index has been on an unrelenting search for new record highs!

The current ATH (all-time high) for this stock index stands at 879.3, posted yesterday (Monday, March 25th).

NOTE: 11 of the 18 different stock indices offered across FXTM’s platforms have posted record highs respectively so far in 2024!

Although the uptrend is on a pause at the time of writing,

the NETH25 index is still up by about 11.5% so far this year!

The NETH25’s index’s year-to-date gains have outperformed those of other popular assets:

NAS100 stock index: +8.6%
Gold: +5.3%
US Dollar index: +2.8%

What is a stock index?

Imagine a stock index being a basket of many different stocks.

The index measures the overall performance of those stocks inside that “basket”.

What does the NETH25 stock index track?

FXTMs NETH25 stock index tracks the performance of the AEX index – the Amsterdam Exchange index.

The AEX index measures the overall performance of the 25 biggest and most actively traded shares on Euronext Amsterdam.

The AEX index includes well-known companies such as ASML, Shell, Unilever, ING, Universal Music Group, and Heineken, among others.

FUN FACT: The Amsterdam Stock Exchange is generally considered to be the oldest stock exchange in the world, established in 1602.

3 key things to know about the NETH25 index:

1) NETH25 is a tech-heavy stock index

Tech stocks account for over 25% of the AEX index, led by ASML – Europe’s most-valuable tech company.

Note how tech companies leading the charge upwards for many stock markets around the world, from Nvidia in the US, to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in Taiwan.

In similar fashion, the NETH25 index is also soaring upwards thanks to the ongoing AI-mania which is bolstering demand for semiconductors.

2) NETH25 battling for 2nd-best performing FXTM stock index so far in 2024

Here are the top-5 biggest gainers of the 18 stock indices offered across FXTM’s platforms:

JAP225: +20.7%
EU50: 11.6%
NETH25: 11.5%
TWN: +9.7%
US500: 9.4%

9 of the AEX Index’s 25 member stocks have already posted double-digit year-to-date gains, which is helping the NETH25 keep pace with the overall surge in global stock indices.

3) NETH25 index forecasted to climb another 8.6% over next 12 months

Over the next 12 months, the AEX index is expected by expert financial analysts to cross over the 950 level.

If so, that marks 8.6% in potential gains, with a further upside of 76 index points.

Of course, markets hardly ever move in a straight line, and there are bound to be twists and turns along the way, presenting trading opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

Still, over the longer-term horizon, as long as a AI-mania can keep chugging along, bolstered further by a rosier outlook for the European economy, thanks to incoming rate cuts by the European Central Bank …

that should enable the NETH25 index to post multiple new record highs along the way.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

25 Mar

Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling

Here are details of “The Great Cash-Out”

By Elliott Wave International

Corporate insiders may sell the shares of their company for any number of reasons but one of them is not because they think the price is going up.

In other words, insider selling can serve as a warning.

For example, the January 2022 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, noted:

Only one group is selling. … Corporate insiders sold a record $64.5 billion of their firms’ shares through November [2021]. As the December [2021] Theorist noted, insiders “know what their companies are worth,” and “they’ve been selling their heads off.”

This commentary was published within days of the January 2022 highs in the Dow Industrials and S&P 500.

What does all this have to do with today?

You guessed it, insiders are in a selling mood again.

Here are just a few prominent examples:

In the last two months of 2023, Mark Zuckerberg, the executive chairman of Meta Platforms (Facebook), sold $400 million worth of Meta stock. He then sold another $661 million between January 31 and February 21.

Around this time, on Jan. 20, Bloomberg noted:

… a total of 1,000 insiders sold their own stock and 128 bought shares, leaving the sell-to-buy ratio poised for the highest monthly reading in data going back to 1988.

Then, on Feb. 27, we had this headline from Fortune:

The Great Cash-Out: Jeff Bezos, Leon Black, Jamie Dimon, and the Walton family have now sold a combined $11 billion in company stock this month …

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Apollo Global Management co-founder Leon Black sold shares in their companies for the first time ever.

The Walton family unloaded $1.5 billion of Walmart shares and Jeff Bezos sold $8.5 billion of Amazon stock.

Also of note are the stock market activities of another very rich person — or shall I say the lack of activities.

Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway is holding onto a record high stockpile of cash: $167.7 billion. The Oracle of Omaha says he sees “no candidates for capital deployment.”

Of course, major corporate insider selling is by no means the only indicator investors should watch.

Market participants may also want to monitor the repetitive patterns of investor psychology — which show up as Elliott waves on price charts.

If you’d like to delve into the details of Elliott wave analysis, read Frost & Prechter’s definitive text on the subject — Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from this Wall Street classic:

It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.

The ability to identify such junctures is remarkable enough, but the Wave Principle is the only method of analysis that also provides guidelines for forecasting. Many of these guidelines are specific and can occasionally yield stunningly precise results.

Get more insights into the Wave Principle by reading the entire online version of the book for free.

Just follow the link and you can have the Wall Street bestseller on your computer screen in moments: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

25 Mar

Inflationary pressures are rising in Singapore and Malaysia. Japan’s currency policymakers are again talking about intervention

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.77% (for the week +1.67%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.14% (for the week +1.54%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.16% (for the week +1.70%).

Lululemon Athletica shares closed down more than 15% on Friday after warning of a slowdown in US store visits and forecasting 2025 net revenue below consensus. Nike (NKE) also closed down more than 6% after warning of low single-digit sales declines in the first half of the fiscal year. Additionally, Tesla’s shares (TSLA) fell more than 1% after Bloomberg reported that the company cut vehicle production at a plant in China. FedEx (FDX) shares are up more than 7% after the company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share above consensus and announced a $5 billion share repurchase plan. Additionally, shares of Nvidia (NVSA) are up more than 3% after UBS raised its price target on the company’s stock to $1,100 from $800.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.15% (for the week +1.50%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.34% on Friday (for the week -0.29%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.70% (for the week +3.27%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.61% (for the week +2.63%).

The IFO German business climate survey for March rose by 2.1 to a 9-month high of 87.8, stronger than expectations of 86.0. Nagel, a spokesman for the ECB’s governing council and president of the Bundesbank, said the likelihood that the ECB would cut interest rates for the first time “before the summer break” in August is growing. Still, investors should not conclude that the same will happen at every subsequent meeting.

On Friday, silver prices were pressured by the negative impact of copper prices falling to 1-week lows amid signs of weakness in Chinese industrial metals demand, as demand for metals during the peak of China’s construction season falls short of expectations.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 6.07%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.05% in 5 trading days, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.14% last week, and Australian ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive for the week 1.31%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) opened lower on Monday as investors booked profits after the benchmark recently hit record highs. A senior Japanese finance official expressed doubts about the US dollar’s recent appreciation against the Japanese yen, fueling speculation of possible market intervention. The yen fell sharply last week even after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years and ended eight years of negative rates in what was seen by markets as a well-crafted decision. The central bank also abandoned its yield curve adjustment policy, stopped buying ETFs and J-REITs, and reduced bond purchases. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will maintain an accommodative stance for some time, keeping rates at 0%.

Chinese stocks have been rising since the market opened on Monday. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Sunday that Beijing will step up policy measures to support the economic recovery. He also cited China’s relatively low consumer prices and the central government’s manageable debt levels as opportunities to expand macroeconomic policies.

The historic end of ultra-easy monetary policy in Japan and a surprise rate hike in Taiwan have boosted the yuan’s appeal as a funding currency for global trading of emerging market currencies. The yuan has become a more affordable funding option as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is in easing mode. While the yen remains the lowest-yielding currency in the world despite the Bank of Japan’s rejection of negative rates, heightened expectations of its rise and volatility could deter borrowers. The Chinese yuan currently compares more favorably to the Taiwan dollar on these metrics and is more attractive than the US dollar in terms of both implied yield and volatility.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate for February 2024 rose to 3.4% from a more than two-year low of 2.9% in the previous month, compared with market forecasts of 3.3%, mainly due to faster growth in housing and food prices. Core inflation rose to a seven-month high of 3.6% in February from January’s 23-month low of 3.1%, beating forecasts for a 3.4% increase. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 1.0% in February, the highest in 15 months. The Ministry of Commerce and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) predict core and core inflation to average between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 1.8% in February 2024 from 1.5% in the previous month, beating market predictions of 1.4%. This was the highest rate since October last year. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food prices and administrative costs, rose to 1.8% y/y, in line with the pace of growth in January.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,234.18 −7.35 (−0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,475.90 −305.47 (−0.77%)

DAX (DE40) 18,205.94 +26.69 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,930.92 +48.37 (+0.61%)

USD Index 104.43 +1.00 (+0.96%)

Important events today:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2).
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 14:25 (GMT+2);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 17:20 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Mar

Trade Of The Week: CN50 flirts with critical resistance

By ForexTime

CN50 up over 5% YTD

Prices bullish on D1 charts

Watch out for Big China bank earnings

Key level of interest at 12250

Major breakout on horizon?

If you are seeking fresh market opportunities, then look no further!

FXTM’s CN50 index, which tracks the benchmark FTSE China A50, is flirting around key weekly resistance ahead of an event-heavy week…

That’s right, various Chinese companies listed in the CN50 are due to report their latest quarterly earnings throughout the week. This will be complemented with China’s latest industrial profits which could provide insight into the health of the world’s second largest economy.

Before we discuss what to keep an eye on this week, here are some fun facts about the CN50:

The index recently hit a fresh 2024 high.
It’s up over 5% year-to-date.
Rebounded roughly 15% from the mid-January low

CN50 bulls have drawn strength from government stimulus hopes with prices now knocking on critical resistance. Taking a quick look at the technical picture, prices are respecting a bullish channel on the daily charts.

With all the above said, here are 3 forces that could move the CN50 this week:

1) China industrial profits

The main data release from China will be the industrial profits published on Wednesday.

Profits at large Chinese industrial companies are forecast to rise 9.0% in the first two months of 2024, after falling 2.3% in December 2023.

A figure that exceeds the 9% forecast could boost sentiment towards the Chinese economy, supporting the CN50 index as a result.

Should China’s industrial profits print below expectations, the CN50 could weaken amid growing concerns over the world’s second-largest economy.

2) Big China bank earnings

Quarterly earnings from four of the biggest Chinese banks – Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China among many others will be in focus.

Note: Chinese banks have been under much stress due to consumers missing loan payments, especially in the real estate sector.

The latest quarterly earnings may provide some insight into where the property crises may be heading.

Given how banks make up just over 20% of the CN50’s weighting, the market response to the earnings could influence the index.

Note: Speaking of property crises, watch out for earnings from Country Garden and China Vanke published on Thursday. Although they are not part of the CN50 Index, they are heavyweights in the property industry with their results influencing sentiment towards the Chinese economy.

A positive set of earnings from Chinese big banks and the largest property companies could boost confidence in China’s economy, supporting the CN50 index.

Should overall earnings from banks and biggest property developers disappoint, CN50 bears may jump back into the scene.

3) Technical forces

The CN50 remains in an uptrend on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. A breakout could be on the horizon with support found at 12000 and resistance at 12250.

A solid breakout and daily close above 12250 may encourage a move towards 12450.

Should prices secure a daily close back under 12000, this may inspire bears to target 11700.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

25 Mar

Gold’s Prospects Look Promising

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have stabilized around $2170.00 per troy ounce after two days of decline. Investors are taking a pause ahead of an important US inflation indicator report due this week, which could provide insights into the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

The Core PCE index data, an inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve, will be released this Friday. This week, several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, will speak at various events, potentially influencing market reactions. Additionally, most markets in Catholic countries will be closed on Good Friday at the week’s end, possibly delaying market reactions.

Strategically, gold has gained solid support after the Federal Reserve’s March meeting outlined three interest rate cuts for the current year. Support also came from the Swiss National Bank, which unexpectedly reduced its lending rate, sparking discussions that other major central banks might ease monetary policy sooner than expected – even before the Fed. For gold, this is a positive signal: lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

The probability of the Fed starting to cut rates in June is estimated at 74%.

COMEX data shows that net long positions in gold have decreased by 2,093 contracts to 157,467 contracts, which is not critical for the precious metal’s trend.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD reached a local target of 2222.77. A correction to the level of 2157.05 has been executed today. Currently, the market is forming a consolidation range around 2168.40. A downward breakout is expected, followed by a continuation of the correction to 2114.60. After completing this correction, a growth wave to 2251.33 is anticipated. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and sharply directed downwards.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD has formed a consolidation range around 2168.40. An upward exit from this range could lead to a correction towards 2188.77. After reaching this level, a decline to 2146.66 will be considered, followed by the possibility of rising back to 2168.40 (testing from below) and then a decline to 2114.60. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and heading straight down to 20.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

24 Mar

FX Speculators drop Australian Dollar bets to new record low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were sharply lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (24,378 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (1,627 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-26,065 contracts) with the British Pound (-17,251 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-16,698 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-13,690 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-6,274 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-5,507 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,630 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,654 contracts) and Bitcoin (-1,102 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop their Australian Dollar bets to new record low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the renewed bearishness in the speculator’s positioning for the Australian dollar. Large speculative Aussie currency positions dropped this week by over -16,000 net contracts, the largest weekly decline in twenty-six weeks and the third straight weekly fall. The AUD speculator positions have decreased in nine out of the past ten weeks as well with an overall drop by -75,264 net contracts in that ten-week period.

This rise in bearishness has pushed the speculators bets to the most bearish level on record at a total of -107,538 net contracts. This surpasses the previous record of -96,946 contracts that was hit on September 19th of 2023. The overall Aussie speculator positioning has now been in bearish territory since dropping from a net bullish position to a net bearish position on May 25th of 2021 and this week marks the 148th consecutive week of continuous bearish speculator levels.

Denting the sentiment for the Aussie Dollar was a recent interest rate hold by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on March 19th. The RBA left its cash rate at 4.35 percent as inflation continues to decrease and with many market watchers feeling this was a dovish meeting and statement.

The Australian dollar is in a downtrend, according to our trend following model, with the Aussie closing out the week against the US Dollar at 0.6531. The AUD/USD currency pair opened the 2024 trading year at the 0.6823 exchange rate and has been trending lower since hitting a multi-year high of approximately 0.8000 in February of 2021.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (89 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (60 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (17.9 percent)
EuroFX (40.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (52.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (88.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (27.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (33.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (67.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (47.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (45.8 percent)
Bitcoin (34.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.4 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (22 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies and are the only markets with positive scores.

The Swiss Franc (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-30 percent), Japanese Yen (-28 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (12.3 percent)
EuroFX (-5.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-6.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-28.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-19.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-43.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-40.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-24.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-23.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-29.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-27.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-2.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (21.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-8.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.4	16.2	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.5	23.3	8.7
– Net Position:	679	-1,691	1,012
– Gross Longs:	15,573	3,861	3,091
– Gross Shorts:	14,894	5,552	2,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	98.0	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	2.0	-1.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 48,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	59.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	70.6	7.6
– Net Position:	48,342	-74,130	25,788
– Gross Longs:	182,382	388,839	75,816
– Gross Shorts:	134,040	462,969	50,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	61.5	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	4.8	1.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	29.3	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	58.5	13.3
– Net Position:	53,200	-57,617	4,417
– Gross Longs:	102,605	57,898	30,742
– Gross Shorts:	49,405	115,515	26,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.6	13.4	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-16.1	19.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -116,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	60.3	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.3	22.2	15.2
– Net Position:	-116,012	115,119	893
– Gross Longs:	66,274	182,299	46,762
– Gross Shorts:	182,286	67,180	45,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	84.4	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.2	27.7	-1.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	68.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	21.6	31.5
– Net Position:	-20,500	33,392	-12,892
– Gross Longs:	13,003	48,825	9,665
– Gross Shorts:	33,503	15,433	22,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	100.0	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.7	57.7	-41.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -37,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	66.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	48.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-37,148	41,437	-4,289
– Gross Longs:	45,761	153,407	27,007
– Gross Shorts:	82,909	111,970	31,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	77.4	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.7	23.1	-16.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	71.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	19.4	12.5
– Net Position:	-107,538	116,062	-8,524
– Gross Longs:	38,207	158,919	19,035
– Gross Shorts:	145,745	42,857	27,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.8	26.4	-0.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,465 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	51.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	51.9	8.1
– Net Position:	-189	-7	196
– Gross Longs:	19,064	26,118	4,278
– Gross Shorts:	19,253	26,125	4,082
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	40.6	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	2.4	0.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 128,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,292 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.4	37.0	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	80.8	1.1
– Net Position:	128,670	-132,984	4,314
– Gross Longs:	183,182	112,132	7,548
– Gross Shorts:	54,512	245,116	3,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.7	-20.5	-7.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.3	31.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	51.1	2.1
– Net Position:	10,314	-12,526	2,212
– Gross Longs:	39,444	19,347	3,551
– Gross Shorts:	29,130	31,873	1,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	50.4	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	11.4	2.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.4	7.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.7	4.0	2.5
– Net Position:	-2,096	1,253	843
– Gross Longs:	24,683	2,580	1,663
– Gross Shorts:	26,779	1,327	820
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.9	96.6	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	12.6	1.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Year Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (105,077 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (36,461 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (32,079 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (29,536 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (12,156 contracts) and the Fed Funds (905 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-125,140 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-19,601 contracts).

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (76 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (76 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength scores were the Fed Funds (27 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (26.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (36.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (34.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (29.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (26.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (28.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (75.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (64.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (63.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (58.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (75.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (82.3 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (42 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-13 percent) and the Fed Funds (-13 percent) leads the downside currently with negative trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-12.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-4.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (41.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (28.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-13.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-14.4 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 302,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -125,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 427,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	56.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	59.1	0.3
– Net Position:	302,139	-298,573	-3,566
– Gross Longs:	1,899,123	6,195,531	28,551
– Gross Shorts:	1,596,984	6,494,104	32,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.9	24.1	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	13.0	1.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -194,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -195,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	72.9	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	62.5	2.0
– Net Position:	-194,845	192,059	2,786
– Gross Longs:	151,004	1,352,227	39,137
– Gross Shorts:	345,849	1,160,168	36,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	70.5	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.1	22.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -901,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 36,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -938,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	80.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	59.0	3.6
– Net Position:	-901,595	787,910	113,685
– Gross Longs:	422,597	2,969,326	245,616
– Gross Shorts:	1,324,192	2,181,416	131,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.7	60.4	87.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.8	-27.4	-9.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,157,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 105,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,262,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	84.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	65.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-1,157,057	1,069,939	87,118
– Gross Longs:	395,194	4,907,528	406,591
– Gross Shorts:	1,552,251	3,837,589	319,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	79.9	81.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-8.0	-7.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -574,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 29,536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -603,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	77.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	65.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-574,010	526,781	47,229
– Gross Longs:	461,066	3,327,859	414,071
– Gross Shorts:	1,035,076	2,801,078	366,842
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	62.3	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-31.3	-1.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -153,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	73.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	62.2	13.9
– Net Position:	-153,271	233,014	-79,743
– Gross Longs:	294,809	1,497,187	203,561
– Gross Shorts:	448,080	1,264,173	283,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	75.1	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-18.9	12.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 32,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,533 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	69.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	70.7	10.0
– Net Position:	-22,454	-19,971	42,425
– Gross Longs:	242,086	1,034,162	191,844
– Gross Shorts:	264,540	1,054,133	149,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	5.5	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.9	-42.7	-12.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -304,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -316,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	79.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	61.6	10.0
– Net Position:	-304,714	287,081	17,633
– Gross Longs:	139,244	1,263,105	175,999
– Gross Shorts:	443,958	976,024	158,366
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	36.7	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-19.0	1.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

23 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Positions led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (13,517 contracts) with Soybeans (12,760 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,316 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,182 contracts), Sugar (6,360 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,606 contracts) and Live Cattle (925 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-6,266 contracts), Cotton (-5,881 contracts), Wheat (-2,291 contracts) and Cocoa (-190 contracts) with lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (79 percent) and Cotton (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (58 percent), Lean Hogs (57 percent) and Cocoa (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (7 percent) and Soybean Meal (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Corn (11 percent) and the Soybean Oil (18 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (11.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (23.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (21.3 percent)
Coffee (78.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (85.3 percent)
Soybeans (6.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (3.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (10.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.1 percent)
Live Cattle (58.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (57.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.0 percent)
Cotton (77.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (82.1 percent)
Cocoa (56.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (56.7 percent)
Wheat (28.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.2 percent)

Live Cattle & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (27 percent) and Lean Hogs (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (24 percent), Soybean Oil (9 percent) and Corn (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Soybean Meal (-5 percent) and Coffee (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.4 percent)
Sugar (3.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.1 percent)
Coffee (-4.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.3 percent)
Soybeans (-1.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-4.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.4 percent)
Live Cattle (26.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (38.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (34.4 percent)
Cotton (23.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (41.6 percent)
Cocoa (-12.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-26.4 percent)
Wheat (-12.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -175,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	43.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	31.9	10.5
– Net Position:	-175,513	183,490	-7,977
– Gross Longs:	294,129	683,677	156,429
– Gross Shorts:	469,642	500,187	164,406
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.2	87.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-7.8	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 91,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.5	52.7	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	64.4	7.5
– Net Position:	91,323	-97,873	6,550
– Gross Longs:	179,189	439,456	69,342
– Gross Shorts:	87,866	537,329	62,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.6	79.4	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	0.7	-19.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 50,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	39.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	63.3	3.0
– Net Position:	50,165	-51,523	1,358
– Gross Longs:	73,789	86,913	7,862
– Gross Shorts:	23,624	138,436	6,504
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	24.7	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	4.9	-1.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -180,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	61.4	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	38.0	8.4
– Net Position:	-167,653	180,816	-13,163
– Gross Longs:	97,583	474,988	52,094
– Gross Shorts:	265,236	294,172	65,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	94.2	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	2.0	-5.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	46.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	43.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-20,206	16,387	3,819
– Gross Longs:	108,981	264,146	28,339
– Gross Shorts:	129,187	247,759	24,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	81.4	28.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-9.3	7.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -45,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	48.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	42.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-45,705	30,378	15,327
– Gross Longs:	90,991	230,591	46,201
– Gross Shorts:	136,696	200,213	30,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	89.8	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	5.7	-11.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 73,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	31.9	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.5	12.3
– Net Position:	73,770	-65,773	-7,997
– Gross Longs:	124,765	102,081	31,407
– Gross Shorts:	50,995	167,854	39,404
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	42.4	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-26.6	-15.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	36.8	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	47.9	9.9
– Net Position:	33,622	-29,122	-4,500
– Gross Longs:	92,556	97,267	21,740
– Gross Shorts:	58,934	126,389	26,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	44.0	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-31.2	8.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 91,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	33.5	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	69.9	3.4
– Net Position:	91,632	-100,621	8,989
– Gross Longs:	126,335	92,568	18,265
– Gross Shorts:	34,703	193,189	9,276
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.7	22.1	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.9	-23.2	14.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 45,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.3	30.5	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	55.2	3.8
– Net Position:	45,582	-51,282	5,700
– Gross Longs:	73,188	63,093	13,493
– Gross Shorts:	27,606	114,375	7,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	40.6	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	12.1	4.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	36.0	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	21.8	8.4
– Net Position:	-56,060	57,895	-1,835
– Gross Longs:	119,628	146,951	32,432
– Gross Shorts:	175,688	89,056	34,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	69.8	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	10.9	13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P 500 & EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SP500 & EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as all seven out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (45,658 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,261 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (9,765 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (6,774 contracts), the VIX (4,316 contracts), the Russell-Mini (5,610 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (1,171 contracts) also having positive weeks.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (97 percent) and the Russell-Mini (76 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (67 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (36 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (62.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (35.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (29.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (96.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (85.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (56.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (41.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (75.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (71.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (48.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (58.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (44.7 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (23 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (15 percent), the S&P500-Mini (6 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (5.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (5.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (2.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-33.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-58.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (14.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (9.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	47.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	34.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-44,790	48,644	-3,854
– Gross Longs:	67,646	179,887	27,545
– Gross Shorts:	112,436	131,243	31,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	33.0	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-4.9	1.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -194,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 45,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	73.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.2	8.5
– Net Position:	-194,169	110,101	84,068
– Gross Longs:	258,169	1,539,140	261,988
– Gross Shorts:	452,338	1,429,039	177,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.8	55.1	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-7.1	5.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	45.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	71.4	12.6
– Net Position:	22,445	-24,632	2,187
– Gross Longs:	35,688	42,385	13,967
– Gross Shorts:	13,243	67,017	11,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.8	2.5	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-1.3	-2.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,395 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	55.5	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	62.5	13.2
– Net Position:	11,160	-17,526	6,366
– Gross Longs:	68,217	138,897	39,354
– Gross Shorts:	57,057	156,423	32,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	33.3	91.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	22.9	2.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	78.6	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	77.5	4.3
– Net Position:	-13,484	5,273	8,211
– Gross Longs:	69,077	370,396	28,373
– Gross Shorts:	82,561	365,123	20,162
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.5	23.9	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-2.1	-11.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	66.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	68.3	15.5
– Net Position:	-1,421	-313	1,734
– Gross Longs:	1,386	11,492	4,413
– Gross Shorts:	2,807	11,805	2,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	34.0	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-13.2	1.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	88.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	88.3	0.9
– Net Position:	-7,682	1,369	6,313
– Gross Longs:	38,124	390,369	10,384
– Gross Shorts:	45,806	389,000	4,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	38.5	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.4	-24.8	7.6

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COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

FXTM’s new NETH25 stock index has been on an unrelenting search for new record highs!

NOTE: 11 of the 18 different stock indices offered across FXTM’s platforms have posted record highs respectively so far in 2024!

the NETH25 index is still up by about 11.5% so far this year!

What is a stock index?

What does the NETH25 stock index track?

The AEX index measures the overall performance of the 25 biggest and most actively traded shares on Euronext Amsterdam.

FUN FACT: The Amsterdam Stock Exchange is generally considered to be the oldest stock exchange in the world, established in 1602.

3 key things to know about the NETH25 index:

1) NETH25 is a tech-heavy stock index

2) NETH25 battling for 2nd-best performing FXTM stock index so far in 2024

3) NETH25 index forecasted to climb another 8.6% over next 12 months

If so, that marks 8.6% in potential gains, with a further upside of 76 index points.

that should enable the NETH25 index to post multiple new record highs along the way.

Here are details of “The Great Cash-Out”

By Elliott Wave International

If you are seeking fresh market opportunities, then look no further!

FXTM’s CN50 index, which tracks the benchmark FTSE China A50, is flirting around key weekly resistance ahead of an event-heavy week…

The index recently hit a fresh 2024 high.

It’s up over 5% year-to-date.

Rebounded roughly 15% from the mid-January low

1) China industrial profits

2) Big China bank earnings

Note: Speaking of property crises, watch out for earnings from Country Garden and China Vanke published on Thursday. Although they are not part of the CN50 Index, they are heavyweights in the property industry with their results influencing sentiment towards the Chinese economy.

3) Technical forces

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

Speculators drop their Australian Dollar bets to new record low

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

Live Cattle & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures: