InvestMacro

Speculators strongly boosting US Dollar bets vs Major Currencies

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (3,517 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,821 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (213 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-29,430 contracts), the EuroFX (-20,499 contracts), the British Pound (-19,633 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-11,960 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-8,742 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,448 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,468 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators strongly boosting US Dollar bets vs Major Currencies

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the overall strength being shown in the speculator’s positioning for the US dollar.

The way the futures markets work for currencies is that every bet for or against a currency is also a bet for against the US dollar. Right now, most of the major currencies are strongly on the defensive in their exchange rates and, especially, in their speculator positions versus the US dollar, underlining the strength of the sentiment for the US currency.

Here are current highlights of the major currencies weakness (US dollar strength):

First up, the Australian dollar (AUD) speculator position is currently over -100,000 contracts for the fourth time out of the last 5 weeks. The all-time record low was reached just last month on March 19th at a total of -107,538 contracts.

The British pound sterling (GBP) contracts have now fallen for four out of the last 5 weeks with the contract level currently at its lowest point since November.

The euro (EUR) currency contracts have decreased in four of the last five weeks as well. The current level is barely positive (+12,224 contracts), falling rapidly (started the year over +100,000 contracts) and now at the lowest level since 2022.

The Japanese yen (JPY) contracts continued to fall this week and have dropped in 13 out of the last 14 weeks. At a total of -165,619 contracts, the current position is at a new lowest standing since 2007.

The Swiss franc (CHF) position has been falling sharply as well. The speculative position for the franc has now declined for 11 consecutive weeks and is at the lowest level since 2019 at -36,212 contracts.

Finally, the Canadian dollar (CAD) has fallen for eight consecutive weeks with a drop this week of -29,430 contracts. The total decrease over just the last 8 weeks has amounted to approximately -82,000 contracts and has brought the current speculative level to the lowest point since 2017.

Helping to keep the US dollar strong is the fading expectations of multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Inflation levels continue to persist in a growing US economy, putting a dent into this year’s rate cut narrative and giving the USD an interest-rate differential boost against it’s major currency counterparts.

The exchange rates of the major currencies are also in a current short-term downtrend vs the USD. The AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR and CHF exchange rates all have dipped this week to the lowest levels since October or November in the latest spot trading data. The JPY, meanwhile, is currently trading at the lowest levels in 34-years.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (94 percent) and the Bitcoin (61 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (3 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.5 percent)
EuroFX (25.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (34.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (59.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (72.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (27.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (94.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (100.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (30.8 percent)
Bitcoin (60.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (64.1 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (15 percent) and the Mexican Peso (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies and are the only markets with positive trends at the moment.

The New Zealand Dollar (-54 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-48 percent), Swiss Franc (-37 percent) and the British Pound (-33 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-6.8 percent)
EuroFX (-23.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-12.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-33.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-12.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-32.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-20.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-37.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-39.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-47.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-39.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-53.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-67.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (10.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-9.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-26.2 percent)
Bitcoin (14.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (27.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 213 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,142 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.9	18.2	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.0	21.2	5.4
– Net Position:	-929	-1,309	2,238
– Gross Longs:	29,911	8,040	4,596
– Gross Shorts:	30,840	9,349	2,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	97.9	37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	5.6	15.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -20,499 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	60.1	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	64.4	8.7
– Net Position:	12,224	-28,654	16,430
– Gross Longs:	178,912	395,979	73,794
– Gross Shorts:	166,688	424,633	57,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	78.5	5.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	25.5	-22.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	56.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	55.4	14.5
– Net Position:	8,619	2,972	-11,591
– Gross Longs:	71,800	129,957	21,721
– Gross Shorts:	63,181	126,985	33,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	47.3	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.0	37.6	-34.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -165,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	69.7	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.0	19.0	14.3
– Net Position:	-165,619	167,742	-2,123
– Gross Longs:	49,463	230,642	45,373
– Gross Shorts:	215,082	62,900	47,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.1	36.0	-23.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	74.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	17.6	27.9
– Net Position:	-36,212	52,956	-16,744
– Gross Longs:	14,650	69,412	9,349
– Gross Shorts:	50,862	16,456	26,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	1.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.5	38.8	-23.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -82,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -29,430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	70.2	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	31.7	15.3
– Net Position:	-82,815	91,572	-8,757
– Gross Longs:	37,067	166,834	27,645
– Gross Shorts:	119,882	75,262	36,402
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	3.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.9	39.1	-11.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -101,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	72.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.1	22.6	14.2
– Net Position:	-101,083	116,344	-15,261
– Gross Longs:	42,365	169,334	18,142
– Gross Shorts:	143,448	52,990	33,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	99.1	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	14.9	-10.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	65.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.3	42.4	9.7
– Net Position:	-11,726	14,570	-2,844
– Gross Longs:	18,019	41,195	3,272
– Gross Shorts:	29,745	26,625	6,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	76.2	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.8	54.6	-43.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 127,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 139,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.3	36.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	82.8	1.0
– Net Position:	127,731	-132,119	4,388
– Gross Longs:	172,573	105,028	7,388
– Gross Shorts:	44,842	237,147	3,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.1	5.9	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-9.3	-11.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.7	30.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.2	33.6	3.5
– Net Position:	901	-1,605	704
– Gross Longs:	35,812	18,203	2,752
– Gross Shorts:	34,911	19,808	2,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	65.3	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	12.2	-20.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.7	5.1	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.9	6.2	2.9
– Net Position:	-363	-313	676
– Gross Longs:	22,339	1,513	1,532
– Gross Shorts:	22,702	1,826	856
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.9	56.7	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-19.7	-4.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

20 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Silver, Coffee & Mexican Peso lead COT Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 16th 2024.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 37.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 53,359 net contracts this week with a small gain of 147 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 22.0 this week. The speculator position registered 76,071 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 2,508 contracts in speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 94.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 10.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 127,731 net contracts this week with a decrease by -11,960 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Copper speculator level is at a 93.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 59.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 47,569 net contracts this week with an increase by 4,875 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 20.3 this week.

The speculator position was -3,413 net contracts this week with a rise by 277 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -165,619 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,468 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -47.9 this week. The speculator position was -82,815 net contracts this week with a sharp drop by -29,430 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,212 net contracts this week with a decline by -4,448 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 2.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.5 this week. The speculator position was -929 net contracts this week with a small gain of 213 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

Finally, the Soybeans speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 5.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.7 this week. The speculator position was -171,893 net contracts this week with a drop by -13,416 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

20 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper with a gain by 4,875 contracts followed by Silver with a small gain of 147 contracts for the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-1,459 contracts), Platinum (-766 contracts), Gold (-496 contracts) and with Palladium (-268 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent), Copper (93 percent) and Steel (86 percent) led the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) and Platinum (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above the mid-point level of 50 percent (over the past 3-years).

On the downside, Palladium (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.6 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (99.8 percent)
Copper (93.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.6 percent)
Platinum (66.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (68.8 percent)
Palladium (27.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (28.6 percent)
Steel (85.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (91.5 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (60 percent) and Copper (59 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with strong trend score increases.

Steel (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with lower 6-week trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (27.3 percent)
Silver (37.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (58.5 percent)
Copper (59.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.5 percent)
Platinum (60.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.1 percent)
Palladium (21.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.4 percent)
Steel (-4.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 201,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	25.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	68.7	5.7
– Net Position:	201,923	-222,758	20,835
– Gross Longs:	278,777	132,684	50,245
– Gross Shorts:	76,854	355,442	29,410
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	34.4	41.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.5	17.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 53,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	26.4	18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	68.5	6.8
– Net Position:	53,359	-74,028	20,669
– Gross Longs:	82,415	46,442	32,658
– Gross Shorts:	29,056	120,470	11,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.4	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.9	-36.5	22.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	23.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	42.0	4.9
– Net Position:	47,569	-56,086	8,517
– Gross Longs:	144,590	69,560	23,259
– Gross Shorts:	97,021	125,646	14,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.1	7.8	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	59.1	-60.0	37.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.1	18.9	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	47.8	4.3
– Net Position:	18,241	-23,614	5,373
– Gross Longs:	52,430	15,494	8,927
– Gross Shorts:	34,189	39,108	3,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.7	34.6	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	60.4	-49.7	-30.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	56.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.3	13.1	7.6
– Net Position:	-9,034	9,024	10
– Gross Longs:	5,414	11,759	1,599
– Gross Shorts:	14,448	2,735	1,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	76.2	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-21.1	-0.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,459 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	82.3	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	72.0	1.2
– Net Position:	-2,730	2,665	65
– Gross Longs:	3,119	21,291	364
– Gross Shorts:	5,849	18,626	299
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.9	14.8	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	3.6	10.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

20 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds with a jump by 144,846 contracts followed by the Fed Funds (89,424 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (59,426 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (45,198 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (1,055 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-335,904 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-54,176 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (-13 contracts).

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (81 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (78 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the 2-Year Bonds at 34 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (81.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (62.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (33.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (33.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (17.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (14.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (49.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (35.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (13.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (24.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (78.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (57.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (67.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (66.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (53.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (71.0 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (52 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (15 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-12 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (52.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (40.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-0.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-2.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (32.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-21.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (11.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (10.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-12.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-8.6 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -127,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -335,904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 207,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	57.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	56.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-127,967	131,343	-3,376
– Gross Longs:	1,485,664	5,819,244	32,257
– Gross Shorts:	1,613,631	5,687,901	35,633
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	46.4	86.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	12.3	1.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 58,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 89,424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	62.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	66.0	2.2
– Net Position:	58,728	-62,100	3,372
– Gross Longs:	397,356	1,164,532	43,727
– Gross Shorts:	338,628	1,226,632	40,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.1	16.5	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	52.2	-52.3	2.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -946,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -946,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	79.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	58.8	3.3
– Net Position:	-946,303	815,457	130,846
– Gross Longs:	503,827	3,161,777	263,544
– Gross Shorts:	1,450,130	2,346,320	132,698
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	62.4	93.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-5.1	6.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,194,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,239,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.1	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	65.3	5.2
– Net Position:	-1,194,222	1,072,513	121,709
– Gross Longs:	461,614	5,000,703	431,620
– Gross Shorts:	1,655,836	3,928,190	309,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	79.8	88.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-8.4	2.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -362,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 144,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -506,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	75.9	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	68.0	9.0
– Net Position:	-362,039	350,006	12,033
– Gross Longs:	533,604	3,365,808	410,016
– Gross Shorts:	895,643	3,015,802	397,983
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	39.8	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.8	-40.8	-6.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -213,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -54,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	75.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	61.3	13.8
– Net Position:	-213,599	289,264	-75,665
– Gross Longs:	267,202	1,553,846	209,827
– Gross Shorts:	480,801	1,264,582	285,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.1	86.5	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	7.7	-1.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 59,426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,190 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	69.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	71.3	10.1
– Net Position:	-15,764	-24,594	40,358
– Gross Longs:	257,665	1,077,192	195,936
– Gross Shorts:	273,429	1,101,786	155,578
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.0	4.9	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-9.6	-13.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -294,800 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -295,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	80.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	62.1	10.8
– Net Position:	-294,800	293,080	1,720
– Gross Longs:	138,661	1,291,687	175,118
– Gross Shorts:	433,461	998,607	173,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.3	39.7	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-8.1	-10.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

20 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini with a huge jump by 137,028 contracts followed by the VIX (8,848 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,472 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,062 contracts) and with the Nasdaq-Mini (986 contracts) rounding out the positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell 2000 Mini (-10,835 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-3,282 contracts) also seeing lower spec bets for the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (91 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (83 percent) led the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (76 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (52 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently out of the stock markets.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (81.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (75.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (82.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (87.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (52.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (50.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (57.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (65.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (72.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (60.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (56.0 percent)

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (42 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (28 percent), the VIX (25 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (25.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (10.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (41.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (24.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-1.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (12.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	42.2	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	35.5	7.6
– Net Position:	-22,474	26,113	-3,639
– Gross Longs:	95,276	164,265	25,933
– Gross Shorts:	117,750	138,152	29,572
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.8	8.1	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.4	-25.2	-2.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 137,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	67.0	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	75.8	8.3
– Net Position:	74,114	-186,343	112,229
– Gross Longs:	348,567	1,406,577	286,323
– Gross Shorts:	274,453	1,592,920	174,094
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	14.2	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.5	-42.4	11.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	56.3	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	73.9	12.4
– Net Position:	13,679	-16,459	2,780
– Gross Longs:	23,705	52,698	14,410
– Gross Shorts:	10,026	69,157	11,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	14.4	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	1.3	0.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	55.2	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	62.2	13.1
– Net Position:	8,529	-17,894	9,365
– Gross Longs:	66,139	141,080	42,958
– Gross Shorts:	57,610	158,974	33,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	32.9	99.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-8.5	-0.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -38,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	77.9	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	70.8	4.8
– Net Position:	-38,450	34,078	4,372
– Gross Longs:	72,012	374,758	27,578
– Gross Shorts:	110,462	340,680	23,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.3	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	14.0	-20.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,918 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	67.5	24.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	71.6	15.5
– Net Position:	-856	-678	1,534
– Gross Longs:	1,261	11,077	4,076
– Gross Shorts:	2,117	11,755	2,542
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	25.7	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.5	-19.7	-6.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	89.6	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	89.6	1.3
– Net Position:	-5,632	107	5,525
– Gross Longs:	30,948	379,673	11,200
– Gross Shorts:	36,580	379,566	5,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	37.2	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-8.1	-3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

20 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (9,230 contracts) with Lean Hogs (4,276 contracts) and Coffee (2,508 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-43,130 contracts), Soybean Oil (-23,914 contracts), Cotton (-20,347 contracts), Corn (-14,666 contracts), Soybeans (-13,416 contracts), Wheat (-10,500 contracts), Live Cattle (-5,960 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,073 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

On the downside, Soybeans (6 percent), Corn (8 percent), Soybean Oil (9 percent) and Sugar (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (7.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (13.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.8 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (97.6 percent)
Soybeans (5.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (22.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.4 percent)
Live Cattle (25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (31.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (76.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (72.6 percent)
Cotton (48.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (63.4 percent)
Cocoa (44.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (45.6 percent)
Wheat (23.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (31.1 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Soybean Meal (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (19 percent), Soybean Oil (9 percent) and Soybeans (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-28 percent), Wheat (-13 percent) and Cocoa (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.3 percent)
Sugar (-7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.9 percent)
Coffee (22.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (21.3 percent)
Soybeans (5.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (9.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (19.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-18.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (18.8 percent)
Cotton (-36.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-22.3 percent)
Cocoa (-9.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-6.4 percent)
Wheat (-12.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -204,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -190,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	45.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	31.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-204,857	214,170	-9,313
– Gross Longs:	278,571	688,963	157,042
– Gross Shorts:	483,428	474,793	166,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.6	91.2	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-3.3	-1.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -43,130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	55.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	61.5	10.2
– Net Position:	62,564	-50,279	-12,285
– Gross Longs:	186,059	448,732	70,228
– Gross Shorts:	123,495	499,011	82,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	94.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	9.3	-14.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	35.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	68.1	2.5
– Net Position:	76,071	-78,835	2,764
– Gross Longs:	98,292	86,582	8,934
– Gross Shorts:	22,221	165,417	6,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-22.8	11.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -171,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	58.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	37.3	7.5
– Net Position:	-171,893	179,718	-7,825
– Gross Longs:	94,418	503,032	56,980
– Gross Shorts:	266,311	323,314	64,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	94.0	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.0	5.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -34,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	50.2	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	44.7	4.7
– Net Position:	-34,546	33,327	1,219
– Gross Longs:	116,442	300,903	29,257
– Gross Shorts:	150,988	267,576	28,038
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.2	91.0	18.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-9.0	6.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,230 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	47.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	48.3	6.8
– Net Position:	-12,832	-2,352	15,184
– Gross Longs:	102,248	223,843	46,819
– Gross Shorts:	115,080	226,195	31,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	76.8	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-19.1	7.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	37.4	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	50.6	12.4
– Net Position:	43,011	-35,975	-7,036
– Gross Longs:	95,527	102,062	26,945
– Gross Shorts:	52,516	138,037	33,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.3	78.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.9	34.3	-11.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	32.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	49.2	10.6
– Net Position:	56,491	-49,252	-7,239
– Gross Longs:	120,485	97,818	24,451
– Gross Shorts:	63,994	147,070	31,690
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	24.2	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-18.7	-9.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	38.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	65.4	5.4
– Net Position:	52,329	-55,943	3,614
– Gross Longs:	83,151	77,269	14,522
– Gross Shorts:	30,822	133,212	10,908
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	52.4	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.7	36.6	-31.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	33.7	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	59.1	4.1
– Net Position:	33,835	-40,494	6,659
– Gross Longs:	55,310	53,725	13,258
– Gross Shorts:	21,475	94,219	6,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	51.4	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	7.8	14.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	36.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.4	20.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-62,897	61,586	1,311
– Gross Longs:	118,774	141,027	31,794
– Gross Shorts:	181,671	79,441	30,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	72.5	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.7	16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

19 Apr

3 Signs of Developing U.S. Economic Slowdown

“Credit standards are tightening, thereby freezing out borrowers”

By Elliott Wave International

Recent headlines about the U.S. economy are rosy:

US economic growth for last quarter is revised up slightly to a healthy 3.4% annual rate (AP News, March 28)
US economy continues to shine with help from consumers, labor market (Reuters, March 28)

It’s all well and good to announce positive economic news. Yet, consumers of such news may not be getting the full story.

In other words, there’s plenty of less-than-positive economic developments, and I’ll point out just three which portend a possible economic contraction.

The first one has been well-advertised: the developing commercial real estate crisis. In a nutshell, office building owners face higher interest rates as their loans mature. This could set off a wave of defaults. Indeed, there’s already been a dramatic rise in the number of U.S. commercial property foreclosures in the past four years.

Another sign of a developing economic slowdown has to do with consumers. If you live in the U.S., quite a few of your neighbors — or at least residents of your community — are tapped out.

Here’s a chart from the March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets:

As you can see, credit card delinquencies have been rising since 2022. Indeed, credit card arrears are higher than they’ve been since the wake of the Great Recession in 2007-2009.

And speaking of the Great Recession, sub-prime car loan delinquencies are even higher than they were then.

The March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast elaborates with this chart and commentary:

Car loan delinquencies are higher than at any time in the data’s history, which goes back to 1996. … Credit standards are tightening, thereby freezing out borrowers. … Access to auto credit is the lowest in nearly four years.

Also keep in mind that the economy follows the stock market.

If the stock market goes into a correction — or worse — expect the economy to weaken. History shows that there’s usually a few months lag time between the action of the stock market and economy.

Elliott wave analysis can help you get a handle on the stock market’s trend.

If you’re unfamiliar with the Elliott wave method, read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

All waves are of a specific degree. Yet it may be impossible to identify precisely the degree of developing waves, particularly subwaves at the start of a new wave. Degree is not based upon specific price or time lengths but upon form, which is a function of both price and time. Fortunately, the precise degree is usually irrelevant to successful forecasting since it is relative degree that matters most. To know a major advance is due is more important than its precise name. Later events always clarify degree.

Get more insights into the Wave Principle by reading the entire online version of the book.

Learn more by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline 3 Signs of Developing U.S. Economic Slowdown. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

19 Apr

Israel has retaliated against Iran. Investors run to safe assets

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.06%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.22%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.1% yesterday. A rise in T bond yields on Thursday pressured stocks. Hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields up and pressured stock indices when New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the Fed would not rush to cut interest rates. In addition, weakness in chip company stocks weighed on the overall market for the second session. Stocks found some support from Thursday’s US economic reports, which were mostly better than expected and bolstered the outlook for a soft landing.

The US weekly jobless claims were unchanged at 212,000, indicating a robust labor market. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index for April unexpectedly rose by 12.3 to a 2-year high of 15.5 vs. expectations of a decline to 2.0. The US home sales for March fell by 4.3% m/m to 4.19 million, slightly weaker than expectations of 4.20 million.

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell more than 3% and topped the NASDAQ (US100) losers list after Deutsche Banks downgraded the stock to “hold” from “buy.” Meta Platforms (META) is up more than 1% and led the NASDAQ (US100) risers after Moody’s Ratings Services upgraded the company’s senior unsecured debt rating to Aa3 from A1.

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain a negative factor for risk assets. On Friday morning, Israel retaliated against Iran following Tehran’s attack over the weekend. Notably, the attack was carried out on the birthday of Iranian leader Khamenei, who turns 85 today.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $60,000 mark on Friday before stabilizing around $61,000, hitting its lowest level in six weeks. Financial markets were swept by a wave of risky trades following reports that Israel had struck targets in Iran, Iraq, and Syria in response to Tehran’s attack on Israel over the weekend. Meanwhile, some analysts have argued that Bitcoin and other crypto-assets could provide an alternative store of value in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.23%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.37%.

Eurozone construction output rose by 1.8% m/m in February, the largest increase in a year. In their monthly report, the Bundesbank upgraded their assessment of the German economy and said that a “slight increase” in growth is possible in Q1, an improvement from March when they forecast the economy to contract in Q1. ECB executive board spokesman de Guindos said yesterday that if there is increased confidence among ECB officials that the 2% inflation target will be met, reducing the current level of monetary policy restriction would be appropriate. His counterpart, ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann, said a majority vote in June would likely favor an ECB rate cut.

WTI crude futures jumped about 2% above $84 a barrel on Friday, recovering most of the losses suffered earlier in the week following reports of large explosions in Iran, Iraq, and Syria suspected to have been attacked by Israel. The reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil and potential new EU restrictions on Iran will continue to drive oil markets higher.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.13%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.52%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.03%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.40%.

Malaysia’s economy grew 3.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, accelerating from the 3.0% growth in the previous period. This is the economy’s fastest growth in a year, driven by positive contributions from all sectors, led by the services sector (4.4% vs. 4.2% in Q4).

In a trilateral statement, the US, Japan, and South Korea said they will continue close consultations on currency market developments, recognizing the serious concerns of Japan and Korea about the recent sharp depreciation of their currencies. In its semi-annual report on the financial system, the Bank of Japan noted that financial conditions at companies are improving, and companies are generally quite resilient to stress. Many Japanese companies have sufficient profitability to withstand rising interest rates. Swaps estimate the odds of a 10 bps rate hike by the BoJ at 1% for the April 26 meeting and 39% for the next meeting on June 14.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,011.12 −11.09 (−0.22%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,775.38 +22.07 (+0.058%)

DAX (DE40) 17,837.40 +67.38 (+0.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,877.05 +29.06 (+0.37%)

USD Index 105.86 -0.09 (-0.09%)

Important events today:

– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

19 Apr

Week Ahead: NAS100 braced for more pain?

By ForexTime

NAS100 ↓ over 4% this week

Index set to be rocked by various forces

Big tech earnings & key US data in focus

Watch out for geopolitical tensions

Key level of interest at 17,000

The week ahead may present fresh trading opportunities due to top-tier data and big tech earnings:

Monday, 22nd April

CN50: China loan prime rates
TWN: Taiwan export orders, jobless rate
EU50: Eurozone consumer confidence
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech

Tuesday, 23rd April

EU50: Eurozone S&P Global PMI’s
GER40: Germany S&P Manufacturing PMI
JP225: Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
SG20: Singapore CPI
TWN: Taiwan industrial production
UK100: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
SEK: Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen speech
NAS100: Tesla, PepsiCo earnings

Wednesday, 24th April

AU200: Australia CPI
CAD: Canada retail sales
EUR: Germany IFO business climate
NZD: New Zealand trade
CAD: BoC policy meeting minutes
US30: IBM, Boeing earnings
NAS100: Meta Platforms earnings

Thursday, 25th April

US500: US Q1 GDP, initial jobless claims
EU50: Airbus earnings
CHF: SNB issues first quarter results
NAS100: Microsoft, Alphabet earnings

Friday, 26th April

JPY: BoJ rate decision, Tokyo CPI, inflation & GDP forecasts
SG20: Singapore industrial production, home prices
USD: US March PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
US500: Exxon Mobil earnings
US30: Chevron earnings
CHF: SNB President Thomas Jordan speech

FXTM’s NAS100 which tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index is under the spotlight after shedding over 4% this week.

A combination of geopolitical risk and concerns about higher-for-longer US rates have rocked the index, with bears back in the picture.

More volatility could be on the horizon, and here are 4 reasons why:

1) Geopolitical Risk

On top of the list is the developments in the Middle East.

Geopolitical jitters are likely to keep markets edgy in the week ahead. In the latest news, there have been reports of Israel launching a strike on Iran early Friday in retaliation for last weekend’s drone and missile attack.

Should tensions escalate further, risk aversion could drag the NAS100 lower.

Signs of easing tensions may lift sentiment, potentially lending support to the NAS100.

2) Big Tech earnings

4 of the so-called “Magnificent 7” tech titans are due to report their latest quarterly results.

Given how the combined weightings of Tesla, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Alphabet represent over 20% of the Nasdaq 100, their result could spark volatility. Artificial intelligence will remain focus with investors looking for solid earnings to justify the AI-driven gains in recent months.

A set of positive earnings may trigger a rebound on the NAS100

Earnings that fall short of expectations may deal another blow to the index.

3) Heavy hitting US data

The incoming US Q1 GDP report and PCE data are likely to influence bets around when the Fed will start cutting rates in 2024.

Considering how tech stocks remain sensitive to interest rate expectations, this could mean more volatility for the NAS100. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped hawkish remarks which further dampened Fed cut expectations.

Traders are currently pricing in a 50% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut by July with this jumping to 93% by September.

The NAS100 may extend losses if US data reinforces the case for “ higher-for-longer” rates.

Signs of cooling price pressure and disappointing GDP could boost Fed cut bets, supporting the NAS100 as a result.

4) Technical forces

NAS100 is under pressure on the daily charts with the index respecting a bearish channel. Prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero.

A solid breakdown and daily close below the 17,000 level may trigger a selloff towards 16,600 and the 200-day SMA at 16,330.

Should 17,000 prove to be reliable support, this may open a path back towards the 100-day SMA at 17,400 and 17,800.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

19 Apr

Gold hits record high amid growing geopolitical tensions

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have soared past 2400.00 USD, reaching a new record high on Friday. This marks the fifth consecutive week of gains for the precious metal, fuelled by increasing market demand for “safe-haven” assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertain global economic conditions.

The recent sharp increase in geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, has overshadowed optimistic remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The Fed’s monetary authorities are currently inclined towards gradual interest rate cuts throughout the year, given the persistent strength of inflation and the robust state of the US economy. However, the deepening conflict, especially with Iran’s involvement, has heightened concerns about the stability of the region, diminishing hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution.

Gold’s role as a defensive asset has been reinforced under these circumstances, with expectations that its price could climb even higher if the Middle East conflict continues escalating. Investor interest in gold will likely to persist as long as the situation remains volatile.

The focus on gold as a safe investment has largely overshadowed other economic indicators, including fluctuations in the value of the US dollar and other currencies.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, a broad consolidation range has formed around 2379.70. Exiting this range upward opens the potential to target 2437.00. Following this, a correction to the level of 2323.23 might commence, possibly extending to 2183.42. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero but poised to decline towards new lows.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD exhibits a diverging “Triangle” formation around 2379.70. A downward movement to 2342.42 could occur, followed by an upward trajectory to 2437.00. Upon reaching this peak, a decline to 2323.23 is anticipated. This corrective movement is the initial target. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 20, is expected to rise towards 80, suggesting potential upward movements within this framework.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.