InvestMacro

The Japanese yen faces further depreciation amid rate differentials

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair continues to escalate, currently positioned at 160.88, nearing the 37-year peak of 161.27 achieved last Friday.

Early today, the yen temporarily strengthened following Japan’s Q2 Tankan survey results, which indicated a slight improvement in industrial sentiment to 13 points from 11. However, the services sector displayed mixed results, maintaining 27 points against predictions of an increase, with future expectations slightly downgraded.

Despite these data points, the predominant driver of the yen’s weakness remains the significant interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve.

The BoJ has no immediate plans to adjust interest rates but might alter its government bond purchases, hinting at potential monetary tightening. However, market sentiment remains sceptical about such changes, contributing to the yen’s downward pressure.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY is creating a consolidation range just below the 161.26 level. A brief surge to 161.33, considered a local peak within this upward trend, is possible. After this level, a corrective movement to 158.66 might initiate, potentially followed by another upward wave aiming for 163.30. This forecast is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero but pointing downwards, suggesting upcoming corrections.

The pair completed an upward movement to 161.26, followed by a correction to 160.26. Currently, it has surged to 160.88, forming a consolidation range. Breaking above this range could lead to a rise towards 161.30. Conversely, a downward break might lead to a correction to at least 160.11 before another potential rise to 161.30. The Stochastic oscillator indicates that the signal line, currently above 50, is poised to drop to 20, reflecting potential short-term declines before further gains.

Market outlook

As investors navigate these fluctuations, the broader focus remains on global central bank policies, particularly any shifts by the BoJ or the Fed that could influence the USD/JPY trajectory. The upcoming economic releases and central bank updates will be crucial in shaping market dynamics and the yen’s valuation against the dollar.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Jun

Currency Speculator raised their bets for Canadian & Australian Dollars

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Canadian & Australian Dollars

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (25,519 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (17,980 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,552 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (6,313 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,333 contracts) and with Bitcoin (99 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-26,147 contracts), the EuroFX (-16,382 contracts), the British Pound (-3,573 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-2,563 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-73 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

COT Currency Roundup:

The Canadian dollar speculative position jumped by over +25,000 contracts this week but this was following three straight weeks of declines that had brought the overall position to an all-time record low level. The CAD position has fallen for 13 out of the past 17 weeks and dropped to a record bearish level on June 18th at a total of -147,931 contracts. This week’s speculator position settled at a total of -122,412 contracts. Helping keep the pressure on the Canadian dollar (also called the loonie) recently was the Bank of Canada’s decision to lower their interest rate on June 5th to 4.75 percent from the previous 5 percent. With inflation subsiding in the Canadian economy, there is speculation that interest rates will come down as well and in turn, dampen the perceived attractiveness of the loonie versus other major currencies.

The Japanese yen speculator contracts continued to drop this week and have fallen for three straight weeks. The yen speculative positioning has also declined in 13 out of the last 20 weeks as the overall bearish position has now been above -100,000 contracts for twenty consecutive weeks. The US Dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate continues to see Dollar strength (vs the yen) as the USDJPY currency pair touched above the 161.00 level this week – marking the highest level for the USD since the late-1980s.

The euro currency contracts flipped back into negative territory this week and are in a small bearish position for the first time since April 30th. The euro speculator bets have declined for three straight weeks and are standing at a total of -8,431 contracts this week. The euro exchange rate versus the US Dollar (EURUSD currency pair) has had a very subdued year so far with a fluctuation between approximately 1.0650 and 1.1000 since the beginning of January. This week the EURUSD closed at 1.0752.

The Australian dollar speculator position sharply rose for a second straight week this week with a gain of +17,980 contracts following last week’s +23,129 contract rise. The Aussie spec position has seen a marked improvement since hitting an all-time low on March 19th at -107,538 contracts with this week’s standing coming in at -23,676 contracts. This is the least bearish level since June 29th of 2021, almost exactly three years ago.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions dipped very slightly this week by just -73 contracts. However, the Dollar Index speculative position has been on quite a run with gains in the previous eleven straight weeks. This improved sentiment brought the spec position from out of bearish territory to the highest level since December of 2023 above +17,000 contracts and near where the speculator position currently sits at +17,522 contracts. The Dollar Index price has also been on the upswing with gains in four straight weeks and closed out this week at the 105.50 level.

Finally, the large speculative New Zealand Dollar currency positions gained this week by over +6,000 net contracts. The NZD net positions have now increased for six consecutive weeks – adding a total of +37,842 contracts to the net position in that time. This improvement has taken the NZD spec contracts to the most bullish level in the past three hundred and twenty-three weeks, dating back to April 17th of 2018.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian & New Zealand Dollars

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (82 percent), the Mexican Peso (60 percent) and Bitcoin (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (4 percent), the Canadian Dollar (14 percent), the EuroFX (17 percent), the Brazilian Real (18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (41.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (41.6 percent)
EuroFX (16.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (82.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (84.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (19.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (78.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (100.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (86.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (59.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (56.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (18.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.8 percent)
Bitcoin (57.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (55.5 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (79 percent) and the Australian Dollar (64 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (43 percent), the US Dollar Index (32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (18 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-27 percent), Canadian Dollar (-22 percent) and the EuroFX (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (32.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.6 percent)
EuroFX (-10.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (42.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-29.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-8.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (10.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-22.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-41.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (63.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (79.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (65.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-27.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-30.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (18.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-6.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.0	14.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	59.5	4.6
– Net Position:	17,522	-19,365	1,843
– Gross Longs:	31,947	6,304	3,848
– Gross Shorts:	14,425	25,669	2,005
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	59.8	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-32.8	5.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	60.1	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	61.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-8,431	-9,767	18,198
– Gross Longs:	167,370	390,837	71,392
– Gross Shorts:	175,801	400,604	53,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	85.5	11.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.7	-6.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.4	33.5	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	55.1	13.1
– Net Position:	44,048	-45,026	978
– Gross Longs:	102,547	69,497	28,209
– Gross Shorts:	58,499	114,523	27,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	20.5	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.5	-40.2	16.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	76.2	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.3	22.8	13.5
– Net Position:	-173,900	181,858	-7,958
– Gross Longs:	34,576	259,292	37,891
– Gross Shorts:	208,476	77,434	45,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.8	100.0	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.9	29.5	-2.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -35,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	80.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.4	22.1	27.9
– Net Position:	-35,057	49,331	-14,274
– Gross Longs:	6,506	67,969	9,253
– Gross Shorts:	41,563	18,638	23,527
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	84.9	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-4.1	-16.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -122,412 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 25,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	76.9	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	31.5	11.8
– Net Position:	-122,412	126,330	-3,918
– Gross Longs:	27,790	214,107	29,063
– Gross Shorts:	150,202	87,777	32,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	85.8	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	21.4	-16.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	45.6	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	34.9	12.7
– Net Position:	-23,676	19,343	4,333
– Gross Longs:	64,620	82,549	27,370
– Gross Shorts:	88,296	63,206	23,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	1.5	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	63.8	-58.0	11.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	17.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	63.4	6.0
– Net Position:	26,642	-27,567	925
– Gross Longs:	43,711	10,779	4,540
– Gross Shorts:	17,069	38,346	3,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	79.0	-76.6	26.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	47.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	81.7	2.2
– Net Position:	57,806	-58,963	1,157
– Gross Longs:	84,314	81,667	5,020
– Gross Shorts:	26,508	140,630	3,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	40.8	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.1	27.5	-15.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	56.3	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.4	32.2	3.3
– Net Position:	-22,320	23,477	-1,157
– Gross Longs:	37,622	54,945	2,107
– Gross Shorts:	59,942	31,468	3,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	83.7	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.0	-16.3	-10.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 99 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.3	3.7	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.3	2.9	3.7
– Net Position:	-624	241	383
– Gross Longs:	22,103	1,121	1,499
– Gross Shorts:	22,727	880	1,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	70.8	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	16.8	-4.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

29 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (4,739 contracts) with Silver (4,077 contracts), Gold (3,145 contracts) and Palladium (650 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-2,495 contracts) with Steel (-201 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (95 percent) and Gold (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (80 percent), Steel (74 percent) and Platinum (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (87.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.9 percent)
Silver (94.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (89.3 percent)
Copper (79.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (82.2 percent)
Platinum (73.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.4 percent)
Palladium (6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.2 percent)
Steel (73.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.4 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (19 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is currently the only market with a positive trend score.

Palladium (-12 percent), Copper (-11 percent) and Platinum (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (18.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.6 percent)
Silver (-4.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.4 percent)
Copper (-10.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.3 percent)
Platinum (-10.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (5.9 percent)
Palladium (-12.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-15.1 percent)
Steel (-6.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 246,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 243,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.0	19.1	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	79.2	5.1
– Net Position:	246,229	-271,488	25,259
– Gross Longs:	284,885	86,551	48,436
– Gross Shorts:	38,656	358,039	23,177
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	14.5	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-16.1	-8.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 55,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	23.7	21.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	72.1	6.6
– Net Position:	55,978	-80,718	24,740
– Gross Longs:	81,366	39,375	35,689
– Gross Shorts:	25,388	120,093	10,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	2.7	90.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	0.8	13.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 50,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	24.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	48.5	4.4
– Net Position:	50,126	-62,465	12,339
– Gross Longs:	134,798	61,575	23,624
– Gross Shorts:	84,672	124,040	11,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	16.6	92.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	6.2	27.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.2	23.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	58.7	4.0
– Net Position:	20,603	-27,352	6,749
– Gross Longs:	43,196	17,723	9,788
– Gross Shorts:	22,593	45,075	3,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	18.7	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	2.2	50.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,906 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	53.9	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.3	9.0	5.1
– Net Position:	-12,906	12,138	768
– Gross Longs:	8,224	14,558	2,158
– Gross Shorts:	21,130	2,420	1,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	6.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	92.0	87.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	11.3	8.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	79.6	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	57.7	0.9
– Net Position:	-5,944	5,983	-39
– Gross Longs:	2,932	21,676	200
– Gross Shorts:	8,876	15,693	239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	27.4	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	7.2	-21.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

29 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (47,762 contracts) with the Fed Funds (10,305 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,441 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (2,132 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-32,797 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-17,661 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,105 contracts) and with the SOFR 3-Months (-2,447 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (66 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (53 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (26 percent) and the Fed Funds (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (32.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (53.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (48.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (65.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (71.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (38.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (44.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (50.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (50.3 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (26 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-19 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-53.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-64.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-19.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-15.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-19.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-16.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-16.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (10.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (7.6 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -195,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -193,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	59.1	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	57.0	0.3
– Net Position:	-195,837	198,662	-2,825
– Gross Longs:	1,417,167	5,579,165	22,337
– Gross Shorts:	1,613,004	5,380,503	25,162
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.2	49.9	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-10.8	0.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -140,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	70.1	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	62.0	2.3
– Net Position:	-140,133	134,927	5,206
– Gross Longs:	150,656	1,177,839	43,053
– Gross Shorts:	290,789	1,042,912	37,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	59.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.3	48.0	30.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,261,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,263,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	77.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	51.2	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,261,457	1,109,570	151,887
– Gross Longs:	603,469	3,236,642	272,091
– Gross Shorts:	1,864,926	2,127,072	120,204
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	83.7	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.0	20.1	7.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,486,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -32,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,453,400 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	63.4	4.6
– Net Position:	-1,486,197	1,312,975	173,222
– Gross Longs:	428,361	5,246,055	458,883
– Gross Shorts:	1,914,558	3,933,080	285,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.2	90.9	99.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	5.0	19.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -319,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 47,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	78.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	71.7	8.7
– Net Position:	-319,844	279,162	40,682
– Gross Longs:	432,627	3,385,365	416,843
– Gross Shorts:	752,471	3,106,203	376,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	30.8	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-9.2	9.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -153,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	76.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.3	12.8
– Net Position:	-153,702	216,236	-62,534
– Gross Longs:	251,270	1,577,581	200,003
– Gross Shorts:	404,972	1,361,345	262,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	63.8	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.6	-36.0	5.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,337 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	69.1	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	70.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-50,998	-22,466	73,464
– Gross Longs:	282,898	1,136,639	213,802
– Gross Shorts:	333,896	1,159,105	140,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	19.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	8.2	30.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -368,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -354,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	79.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	59.2	9.6
– Net Position:	-368,340	347,830	20,510
– Gross Longs:	141,829	1,347,454	181,733
– Gross Shorts:	510,169	999,624	161,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	67.3	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	14.3	11.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

29 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar, Cotton & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Cotton & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (18,663 contracts) with Cotton (3,789 contracts) and Coffee (3,163 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-93,072 contracts), Soybeans (-36,877 contracts), Soybean Oil (-28,553 contracts), Wheat (-17,962 contracts), Lean Hogs (-11,565 contracts), Soybean Meal (-11,451 contracts), Cocoa (-4,384 contracts) and Live Cattle (-3,732 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Cotton (3 percent), Lean Hogs (8 percent), Corn (12 percent) and Sugar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (12.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (24.1 percent)
Sugar (13.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.4 percent)
Coffee (94.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (91.7 percent)
Soybeans (20.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (29.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (15.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (64.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (69.0 percent)
Live Cattle (31.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (35.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (7.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.4 percent)
Cotton (2.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (39.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.4 percent)
Wheat (36.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (49.1 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (13 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (4 percent), Soybean Meal (3 percent) and Cocoa (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-27 percent), Corn (-22 percent) and Cotton (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-21.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.8 percent)
Sugar (3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.3 percent)
Coffee (13.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.5 percent)
Soybeans (-10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.3 percent)
Live Cattle (4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (9.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-48.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-43.8 percent)
Cotton (-20.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-24.1 percent)
Cocoa (1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.3 percent)
Wheat (-27.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -169,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -93,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	43.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	30.8	11.6
– Net Position:	-169,783	193,911	-24,128
– Gross Longs:	350,579	661,385	151,802
– Gross Shorts:	520,362	467,474	175,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	88.2	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	20.4	21.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	55.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	60.4	8.2
– Net Position:	37,187	-43,286	6,099
– Gross Longs:	180,313	445,248	72,600
– Gross Shorts:	143,126	488,534	66,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	85.0	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-8.6	26.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	33.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	69.0	2.2
– Net Position:	70,712	-73,719	3,007
– Gross Longs:	85,222	69,889	7,628
– Gross Shorts:	14,510	143,608	4,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.8	5.0	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-13.6	8.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -111,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -36,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	57.8	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	42.2	7.9
– Net Position:	-111,179	118,244	-7,065
– Gross Longs:	132,269	438,467	52,892
– Gross Shorts:	243,448	320,223	59,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	78.0	94.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	9.1	22.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -75,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -28,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	55.4	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	42.4	5.4
– Net Position:	-75,739	75,083	656
– Gross Longs:	119,940	321,287	31,856
– Gross Shorts:	195,679	246,204	31,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.8	-10.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 89,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	38.4	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	58.8	6.2
– Net Position:	89,981	-101,575	11,594
– Gross Longs:	148,158	191,411	42,356
– Gross Shorts:	58,177	292,986	30,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.3	37.5	7.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	3.1	-67.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	31.2	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	44.9	12.1
– Net Position:	48,715	-40,548	-8,167
– Gross Longs:	121,955	93,017	27,814
– Gross Shorts:	73,240	133,565	35,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	73.2	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-3.4	-6.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	40.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	30.2	8.5
– Net Position:	-26,470	27,687	-1,217
– Gross Longs:	80,465	107,333	21,319
– Gross Shorts:	106,935	79,646	22,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	93.6	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-48.1	51.3	19.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	49.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	37.4	5.9
– Net Position:	-23,975	25,842	-1,867
– Gross Longs:	60,552	105,223	10,719
– Gross Shorts:	84,527	79,381	12,586
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	97.9	4.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	18.5	1.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	36.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	63.2	3.8
– Net Position:	29,357	-35,345	5,988
– Gross Longs:	43,025	49,716	11,159
– Gross Shorts:	13,668	85,061	5,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	56.6	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.8	3.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	41.0	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	29.4	9.3
– Net Position:	-44,532	46,557	-2,025
– Gross Longs:	119,255	164,798	35,487
– Gross Shorts:	163,787	118,241	37,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	61.3	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.2	24.0	29.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

29 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (48,863 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (11,220 contracts), the Russell-Mini (7,827 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (288 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,606 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,331 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-2,038 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by the DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (59 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (55 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (38 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (49.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (61.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (47.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (59.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (50.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (33.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (49.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (38.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (35.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (40.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (43.1 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (3 percent) was the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-14.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-11.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-6.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-15.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-26.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-11.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (6.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-12.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-12.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-14.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-15.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-8.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -61,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	45.7	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	30.4	7.1
– Net Position:	-61,035	63,589	-2,554
– Gross Longs:	76,905	189,466	27,000
– Gross Shorts:	137,940	125,877	29,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	49.4	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	17.3	-13.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 48,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	70.9	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	73.2	7.9
– Net Position:	-65,247	-46,099	111,346
– Gross Longs:	271,908	1,400,848	266,961
– Gross Shorts:	337,155	1,446,947	155,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	33.5	83.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	3.7	5.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	60.6	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	62.2	13.8
– Net Position:	-514	-1,345	1,859
– Gross Longs:	16,170	51,415	13,578
– Gross Shorts:	16,684	52,760	11,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	36.3	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	25.9	-8.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,220 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	52.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	60.1	12.2
– Net Position:	7,395	-18,260	10,865
– Gross Longs:	67,869	129,886	41,034
– Gross Shorts:	60,474	148,146	30,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	32.5	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-7.9	7.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -50,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	78.1	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	67.7	4.7
– Net Position:	-50,021	43,649	6,372
– Gross Longs:	59,883	327,132	26,052
– Gross Shorts:	109,904	283,483	19,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	48.5	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.0	-8.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	67.5	27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	38.6	19.8
– Net Position:	-4,901	3,918	983
– Gross Longs:	734	9,151	3,667
– Gross Shorts:	5,635	5,233	2,684
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	53.8	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	18.0	-7.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	89.2	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	84.9	1.1
– Net Position:	-24,818	17,870	6,948
– Gross Longs:	31,609	369,935	11,558
– Gross Shorts:	56,427	352,065	4,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	55.4	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-3.4	3.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

29 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Australian Dollar, Soybean Oil lead weekly Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 63.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -23,676 net contracts this week with a jump of 17,980 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 79.0 this week. The speculator position registered 26,642 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 6,313 contracts in speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 94.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -4.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 55,978 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,077 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 94.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 13.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 70,712 net contracts this week with a rise of 3,163 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gold speculator level sits at a 87.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 18.8 this week.

The speculator position was 246,229 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,145 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -75,739 net contracts this week with a drop of -28,553 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -20.4 this week. The speculator position was -23,975 net contracts this week with a rise of 3,789 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 3.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -173,900 net contracts this week with a large drop by -26,147 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 5.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.6 this week. The speculator position was -1,486,197 net contracts this week with a decline of -32,797 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

Finally, the Palladium speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 6.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.3 this week. The speculator position was -12,906 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 650 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

28 Jun

Is a China-Taiwan Conflict Likely? Watch the Region’s Stock Market Indexes

By Mark Galasiewski | Elliott Wave International

The U.S. government in early May sanctioned 300 Chinese entities for supplying machine tools and parts to Russia for its war against Ukraine, while in mid-May Russian president Vladimir Putin made a two-day visit to China. In turn I found myself thinking about how tensions between China and the United States could lead to open conflict, specifically over Taiwan.

The likelihood of conflict depends in part on the region’s social mood, as reflected in Asia’s stock market indexes. When social mood is negative, countries are more likely to behave aggressively.

Tensions in the region have been high. On May 23, China conducted a military drill that sent 111 warplanes plus several navy destroyers and frigates close to Taiwan and its outer islands. China said the drill meant to punish Taiwan for an offense committed by its new head of state, Lai Ching-te, who used his May 20 inauguration speech to suggest that Taiwan is not part of China.

Yet China appeared to end the provocative move after just two days, much like Iran quickly ended its reprisal drone attack on Israel in April. Both examples reflect the desire to limit the scope of new conflicts, consistent with the improving social mood and burgeoning rally in emerging markets.

As our “Bull versus Bear” chart shows, the mood in Taiwan remains positive amid the global tech boom: The Taiwan Index rose right through the military drill. In contrast, the mood in China remains severely negative, as reflected in the Shanghai Composite’s long-term pattern. That does raise the risk of Chinese aggression — or at the least increases the risk of accidents and miscalculations. As Singapore’s deputy prime minister Gan Kim Yong recently said at the Nikkei Forum in Tokyo, bad outcomes tend to follow during periods “when each side views the other as an adversary.”

Some geopolitical observers frame the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a proxy battle in a new cold war between the United States and its democratic allies, versus the China-dominated axis of autocratic states that includes Russia, North Korea and Iran.

Long-term charts offer perspective.

In 2020, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan Index ended a 26-year sideways pattern, while the MSCI World Ex-U.S. Index ended its own, similar 20-year-long sideways trend. This two-decade period is comparable to the 1929-1949 corrective period in the U.S. stock market. The Covid pandemic erupted toward the end of the triangless much like the 1948-1955 polio epidemic spread across the globe and killed half a million people a year at its peak.

The first proxy battle in the current cold war — Russia-Ukraine — erupted two years post-Covid during the correction in the index, much like the first proxy battle — the Korean War — in the earlier Cold War erupted in 1950 and lasted until 1953. The Russia-Ukraine war could follow that precedent by ending in a stalemate sooner than most observers imagine, even as the developing bull market in world ex-U.S. stocks contributes to years of relative peace. Then, once China becomes much stronger militarily, the next proxy battle in the cold war rivalry — perhaps over Taiwan — would be analogous to the Vietnam War when the U.S. dramatically escalated the fighting in 1965 and pulled out eight years later, as the communist government of North Vietnam in turn took over South Vietnam to reunite the country.

We’re watching the region’s stock market indexes closely.

If you’d like to learn more about Elliott wave price patterns, including the triangles mentioned above, EWI has made available the entire online version of the book Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Jun

Today, the focus of investors’ attention is on the PCE index data

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock indices ended trading with an increase. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.09% on Thursday, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.30%. Stocks were supported amid weaker-than-expected US economic reports that lowered bond yields and reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year.

Markets are awaiting Friday’s release of PCE deflator data for May, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to see if price pressures are easing. The year-over-year PCE Index is expected to fall to 2.6% from 2.7%. On a monthly basis, it is expected to rise 0.1%. The latest PCE Index data did not match expectations — US inflation unexpectedly halted in April. Overall, if the PCE Price Index report shows a further decline in inflationary pressures, it could further reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut (70% as of today). This would likely hurt the US dollar. But suppose the inflation data does not show progress in reducing inflationary pressures. In that case, the likelihood of a rate cut in September would decrease, which would play into the hands of the US dollar and have a negative impact on risk assets and precious metals.

Boeing (BA) is up more than 2% after reporting that China’s safety regulator has cleared it to resume deliveries of wide-body airplanes to China.

Bitcoin stabilized above the $61,000 mark on Friday after falling to a near two-month low earlier this week amid renewed inflows into the US spot bitcoin ETFs. Data showed that inflows into the US spot bitcoin ETFs turned positive on June 25 and 26 after seven consecutive days of outflows. US fund assets also increased from $47 billion in early May to more than $52 billion as of June 26.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.30%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday down 1.03%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.72%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.55%. The Eurozone Economic Confidence Index for June unexpectedly fell 0.2 to 95.9 versus expectations of a rise to 96.1. Eurozone M3 money supply for May rose 1.6% y/y, exceeding expectations of 1.5% y/y and the largest increase in 14 months. ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazimir said yesterday that he still sees significant upside risks to inflation, and the ECB can expect only one more interest rate cut this year. Swaps discount the odds of an ECB rate cut by 25 bps at 9% for the July 18 meeting and 67% for the September 12 meeting.

The UK economy grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024, slightly above initial estimates of 0.6%. This is the strongest growth in two years, ending the recession that began last year. Services grew by 0.8%, up from 0.7% in the first estimate. The manufacturing sector grew by 0.6%, down from the 0.8% previously reported.

Sweden’s Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but changed its estimate for further rate cuts this year to “two or three” from two. Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen said the inflation outlook had become more positive, especially for inflation expectations and wage growth, but two or three cuts were “an estimate, not a promise.” The Riksbank became one of the first major central banks to begin easing monetary policy this cycle in May when it cut rates by 25 basis points.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $82 a barrel on Friday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East overshadowed uncertainty on the demand side. Tensions between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah have escalated after Hezbollah stepped up rocket fire and drone attacks on northern Israel in recent weeks, putting additional pressure on an Israeli government already mired in a war with Hamas. Major oil producer Iran may be drawn into the wider conflict, while Turkish President Erdogan expressed solidarity with Lebanon and called for regional support.

Asian markets were predominantly decreasing yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.82%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 2.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.30%.

Japan’s Core Consumer Price Index in Tokyo in June 2024 rose by 2.1% year-on-year in June, beating market expectations and the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, strengthening the case for the central bank to continue policy normalization. Tokyo’s core inflation rate also accelerated for the second consecutive month after rising 1.6% in May. The Bank of Japan has been under sustained pressure to raise interest rates again as rising wages have boosted consumption. The Central Bank is also expected to defend its currency as the yen fell to a 38-year low, pushing up the cost of imports. Tokyo’s inflation data is widely seen as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,482.87 +4.97 (+0.091%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,164.06 +36.26 (+0.093%)

DAX (DE40) 18,210.55 +55.31 (+0.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,179.68 −45.65 (−0.55%)

USD Index 106.05 +0.44 (+0.41%)

Important events today:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Jun

Week Ahead: FRA40 braced for French elections

By ForexTime

H2 kicks off with French/UK elections, ECB forum & NFP

FRA40 ↓ 5.4% since Macron call for snap election

National Rally currently leading polls

Index bearish on D1 but RSI near oversold

Key points of interest – 7700, 200-day SMA, 7470

An exceptional list of high-risk events may rattle global markets in the week ahead!

The second half of 2024 kicks off with elections in France and the United Kingdom, to the ECB forum and US jobs report among other key data:

Sunday, 30th June

CN50: China manufacturing & non-manufacturing PMIs
USDInd: New York Fed President John Williams speech
FRA40: First round of French legislative elections

Monday, 1st July

CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
AU200: Australia retail sales, Melbourne Institute inflation
EU50: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
FRA40: France Manufacturing PMI
GER40: Germany Manufacturing PMI, CPI
UK100: UK Manufacturing PMI
US500: ISM Manufacturing

Tuesday, 2nd July

AU200: RBA meeting minutes
EU50: Eurozone CPI, unemployment, ECB President Lagarde speech
US500: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Wednesday, 3rd July

CN50: China Caixin service PMI
EU50: Eurozone Services PMI, PPI
USDInd: US FOMC minutes, ISM services, initial jobless claims, Fed speak

Thursday, 4th July

GER40: Germany factory orders
EU50: ECB meeting minutes
UK100: UK general elections
US Markets closed – Independence Day holiday

Friday, 5th July

CAD: Canada unemployment
EU50: Eurozone retail sales
FRA40: France trade, industrial production
GER40: Germany industrial production
SG20: Singapore retail sales
TWN: Taiwan CPI
US500: US June NFP report

FXTM’s FRA40 demands our attention due to the first round of French parliamentary elections over the weekend.

The FRA40 tracks the underlying CAC 40 index, which represents the 40 largest companies listed on the Paris Stock Exchange.

The lowdown…

The French political scene was thrown into chaos on June 9th after President Macron unexpectedly dissolved parliament following his defeat by the far right in EU elections.

Since then, the FRA40 has tumbled as much as 6.5% and heading for its biggest monthly loss in almost two years.

The bigger picture

In a two-round process on 30th June and 7th July, France will go to the polls to elect a new parliament after Macron called for snap elections.

If one candidate gains more than 50% of the vote, representing at least 25% of registered voters, they automatically win the elections. But this is an unlikely outcome given the current polls.

Any party that has obtained more than 12.5% of the vote can advance to the second round.

National Rally (far-right): 36%

New Popular Front (left-wing): 29%

Renaissance and allies (centrist): 21%

Note: President Macron belongs to Renaissance and allies.

Taking a deeper dive

President Macron will remain president regardless of how the election plays out.

However, he could be stuck with a prime minister and a government from a different party. This is the crux of the matter, especially when considering how unaligned Macron and the National Rally are on economic policies.

What does this mean?

This snap election could not have come at a worse time for the French economy.

Just last month its credit rating was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings, while the economy continues to experience subdued growth. If Macron is rendered powerless and unable to push reforms, this could mean more trouble for the French economy as political uncertainty becomes a key theme.

How will the elections impact the FRA40?

Investors have already been given a taste of how political jitters can rock the FRA40.

A shock outcome that sees an absolute majority for either the National Rally or New Popular Front could send the FRA40 tumbling as uncertainty over France’s policy future intensifies.

An outcome where all 3 parties make it into the second round of voting may also trigger volatility.

Technical outlook

The FRA40 is under intense pressure on the daily charts with prices respecting a bearish channel. Although the candlesticks are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signalling that prices are approaching oversold levels.

Sustained weakness below the 200-day SMA, may signal a decline toward 7470, 7400 and 7290.

Should prices push back above the 200-day SMA, bulls could challenge 7700 and 7790.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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