InvestMacro

Iran and the United States have signed a 14‑day ceasefire: risk appetite has returned to the markets

On Tuesday, US stock indices traded without a unified direction. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.18%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.08%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 0.10%. On Wednesday, index futures moved into positive territory, catalyzed by the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which restored investor appetite for risk.

In the corporate sector, performance was mixed: while giants like Nvidia and AMD declined amid broad pessimism, Apple plunged 4% due to production issues with its foldable iPhone. Meanwhile, Broadcom shares jumped 4.5% thanks to a strategic contract with Alphabet, and Intel gained 3% on rumors of cooperation with xAI.

Inflation expectations in the US spiked sharply in March 2026, reaching an annual high of 3.4%. A New York Fed survey recorded alarming dynamics: expectations for gasoline price growth more than doubled, to 9.4%, the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged an impressive rally, breaking above 72,000 dollars and reaching a three‑week high. The catalyst was a dramatic shift in the geopolitical climate: the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran just two hours before Donald Trump’s ultimatum expired restored risk appetite. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary halt to mutual strikes triggered a wave of short liquidations, pushing the price of the leading digital assets to new local highs. After a turbulent period and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in the year, March data showed stabilization and renewed net inflows. The fact that institutional investors have begun increasing positions again signaled to the market that the capitulation phase among major players has ended.

European stock Indices closed sharply lower on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.67%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.64%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.84%. The main driver of the sell‑off was fear of an imminent energy crisis in the EU’s largest economies: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s ultimatum pushed gas and oil prices sharply higher, leading to rising government‑bond yields and pressuring industrial giants. Shares of Siemens, Schneider Electric, and Airbus lost around 2%, as investors fear supply‑chain paralysis and a surge in production costs.

Palladium (XPD) and platinum (XPT) prices surged sharply on Wednesday. Such a rapid rebound became possible thanks to the sudden easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf: news of the two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a collapse in oil prices below 100 dollars per barrel. This immediately lowered inflation expectations and revived hopes for a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, leading to falling bond yields and a weaker dollar – ideal conditions for commodity price growth.

Wednesday was marked by a historic collapse in oil prices: WTI futures plunged more than 15%, breaking below 95 dollars per barrel. The massive sell‑off was a direct reaction to the abrupt de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf. Donald Trump’s decision to transform his hardline ultimatum into a “bilateral ceasefire” for 14 days, and his acknowledgment that Iran’s 10‑point proposal is a “real basis for negotiations”, instantly removed the enormous geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated in recent weeks. A key factor for global energy security was Tehran’s commitment to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. For the global economy, this drop in oil prices below 95 dollars is a powerful deflationary stimulus. If the two‑week window allows the parties to finalize a deal, fears of global recession and uncontrolled fuel inflation may give way to a cycle of business activity recovery. However, investors remain cautious, recognizing that Iran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with its armed forces could become a new tool of subtle pressure in upcoming negotiations.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.72% during the trading session, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) did not trade yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.83%. Asian stock markets on Wednesday posted explosive gains, celebrating the unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The leaders of the rally were the Japanese and South Korean Indices, which surged more than 5%, reflecting enormous investor relief after the world came close to a full‑scale energy war. Despite the euphoria, traders are closely examining the terms of the agreement. Tehran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with Iran’s armed forces indicates that control over the key maritime artery remains a leverage tool in Iran’s hands. Nevertheless, stock exchanges in Australia, China, and Hong Kong supported the upward trend, as the risk of immediate disruption to global supply chains temporarily faded.

The New Zealand dollar rose to 0.58 USD, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, after the Reserve Bank, as expected, left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%. The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is also supported by the de‑escalation between Washington and Tehran. Iran’s agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the 14‑day ceasefire reduced the risk premium that had been weighing on commodity currencies. For New Zealand, whose economy is highly dependent on logistics costs and energy imports, the resumption of shipping reduces the threat of stagflation.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,616.85 +5.02 (+0.08%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,584.46 −85.42 (−0.18%)

DAX (DE40) 22,921.59 −246.49 (−1.06%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,348.79 −87.50 (−0.84%)

USD Index 99.67 −0.31 (−0.31%)

News feed for: 2026.04.08

Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (MED)
Eurozone Producer Price Index (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Apr

EUR/USD Soars on Middle East Pause

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD rose sharply midweek to 1.1675, reaching a four-week high. Pressure on the US dollar came after President Donald Trump postponed the threat of strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure for two weeks. The politician described this as a “bilateral ceasefire” conditional upon the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Trump, the US has received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which is being viewed as a working basis for negotiations. The two-week window could be used to reach a resolution. Iran has reportedly agreed to temporarily open the strait, provided that attacks cease. Israel has also supported the ceasefire.

At the same time, macroeconomic data point to rising inflation expectations in the US. In March, these increased, with transport costs in logistics rising markedly.

Investor attention is now focused on the release of March inflation data (CPI), which could clarify the degree of price pressure amid the ongoing conflict.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 1.1700 level. A downward wave to 1.1566 is expected as a local target. Subsequently, a move higher to 1.1717 is anticipated. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum and the potential for the uptrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave to the 1.1566 level. After reaching this level, an increase to 1.1717 is expected, with the potential for the move higher to extend to 1.1730. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD has surged on news of a potential breakthrough in Middle East tensions, with Trump postponing strikes on Iranian infrastructure and a two-week “bilateral ceasefire” taking effect, conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s reported 10-point proposal and agreement to temporarily open the strait have provided a significant boost to risk appetite, weighing on the safe-haven dollar. However, rising US inflation expectations and the upcoming CPI release remind markets that domestic price pressures remain a concern. While technical indicators suggest some near-term consolidation or pullback, the pair’s direction will ultimately depend on whether diplomatic efforts hold and whether the ceasefire translates into a more lasting de-escalation.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Apr

Hormuz closure threatens the global food supply – why grocery price hikes are coming

By Aya S. Chacar, Florida International University

The global energy crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is only the beginning of the economic cost of the war with Iran.

I study how institutions affect businesses and supply chains, and I expect food prices to rise next, with high prices lasting even after whatever point hostilities end.

Along with about 20% of the world’s crude oil trade and a similar share of the world’s liquefied natural gas shipments, shipping traffic through the strait also carries roughly a third of internationally traded fertilizer, which is key to bountiful crops around the world.

Modern agriculture depends on precise timing of delivering nutrients to plants. When fertilizer arrives late or becomes too expensive to buy in sufficient quantities, farmers are left to either reduce the amount they use, plant fewer crops or switch to crops that need less fertilizer. Each option reduces overall productivity, cutting supplies of basic foods, feed for livestock and key ingredients used in a wide range of food products.

Ultimately, with corn prices rising, summer barbecues may taste a bit different or cost more. Corn on the cob may not be cheap, nor will corn-fed beef. In addition, many store-bought condiments, soft drinks and other food products are made with high-fructose corn syrup and will also cost more.

3 main crops, 3 nutrients needed

Three staple crops – corn, wheat and rice – supply more than half of the world’s dietary calories.

To maximize production, those crops need three main nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate and potassium. Nitrogen helps plants grow. Phosphorus helps transport energy within plant cells and is critical for early root growth and the formation of seeds and fruit. Potassium helps plants conserve water and boosts protein content.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the supply and increased the cost of all three.

Natural gas, which determines 70% to 90% of the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizer, has seen a 20% drop in production due to the war and price increases up to 70%. To preserve its own supplies, Russia has suspended exports of ammonium nitrate, another nitrogen source for fertilizer.

In a similar effort, China, the world’s largest phosphate producer, has blocked phosphate exports, removing 25% of the global supply.

Potash, the potassium-rich component of fertilizers, has also been in short supply in recent years, in part because of economic sanctions on Belarus and Russia, which are major potash producers.

As a consequence, fertilizer prices have risen globally. In the U.S., some fertilizers rose more than 40% in just one month after the war’s start in late February 2026.

An American farmer talks about the cost of fertilizer amid the war in Iran.

Affecting farmers first

Cereal plants absorb the vast majority of their nitrogen needs during their early growth. Applying fertilizer later in the growth cycle is less effective.

Reducing nitrogen application by 10% to 15%, or delaying application by two to four weeks, can reduce corn yields by 10% to 25%.

Producing less corn and wheat reduces not only food available for humans but also food for livestock. Increased fertilizer costs and reduced grain supplies increase the price of raising livestock, making meat and animal products more expensive.

When feed costs become unsustainable, farmers may be forced to kill or sell off the breeding cows and sows that represent the future of the food supply. In the U.S., a combination of persistent drought and high costs in 2022 forced producers to kill 13.3% of the national beef cow herd, the highest proportion ever. As a result, the U.S. beef cattle inventory shrank to its lowest level since 1962, a problem that restricts beef supplies for years.

Ultimately, the costs are passed to consumers. In 2012, when a historic Midwest drought slashed corn yields by 13%, it triggered a surge in feed prices, and U.S. poultry prices rose 20%.

More money can’t fix this problem

In mid-March 2026, the U.S. fertilizer supply was around 75% of normal levels. That’s right at the beginning of the time when Corn Belt farmers typically prepare their soil for planting, including the first applications of fertilizer. Subsequent fertilizer applications typically come from mid-April to early May and between late May and mid-June.

Farmers who fear not being able to optimize their corn yields may decide to plant less corn or switch crops and plant soybeans, which need less fertilizer. Either would reduce the corn supply.

Government loan guarantees and aid packages may help farmers cover higher costs, but they cannot address timing if enough fertilizer simply isn’t available when it is needed.

Hitting home

American consumers aren’t facing the gas and food shortages or power outages other countries are seeing from the war, but they will be hit in the pocketbook. U.S. prices for gas and jet fuel are already climbing. The effects on the food supply take longer to appear, but they are coming.

Even when crops are bountiful in the U.S., consumers are not immune to global economic forces. A smaller 2026 crop, with rising demand for livestock feed in some of the most populous countries, including China and India, will put pressure on global corn prices, affecting everyone regardless of their nationality.

In March 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture used data from before the Iran war to project a 3.1% average increase for all food prices.

The question for consumers is how much of the rise in corn prices will be passed to the consumer, and how fast.

USDA research shows that the speed and extent of changes in food prices vary widely by food category and the level of processing involved in making the food. Other factors also play a role, such as inventory levels, perishability and market competition. When farm prices change, wholesale prices usually adjust within the first month, but retail prices often take longer – sometimes two to four months.

Corn tortillas and other relatively lightly processed corn foods are more likely to show price responses within a few months after corn prices increase. Adjustments to cereals or poultry prices will take a little longer. Changes in the cost of livestock products such as beef will take longer, because there are more steps between the purchase of feed corn and the sale of the meat to consumers.

Other indirect costs, related to the cost of fuel and packaging, tend to hit later. Producers often absorb the price increases in the short term, but some increases are already in the works. For instance, transport companies are adding fuel surcharges on freight shipments.

Food price hikes hit low-income households harder than high-income households, because people with lower incomes spend larger shares of their money on food and housing. For these households, even relatively affordable proteins, such as chicken, may become harder to purchase regularly.

A global food emergency

The cost and availability of fertilizer will affect the whole world. More than 300 million people worldwide already do not have enough food. The U.N. World Food Program predicts an additional 45 million could join them by the end of 2026 if the conflict in the Middle East continues into the middle of the year.

Crop yields in India and Brazil in 2026 are expected to be lower than normal. East African farmers
struggled to afford fertilizer even before the crisis and will likely have to make do with even less.

These problems may seem removed for most Americans, but food prices are global in nature, and people in the U.S. will soon face these additional costs of the war.

About the Author:

Aya S. Chacar, Professor of International Business, Florida International University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities

07 Apr

Iran has officially rejected the ceasefire proposal, and Trump’s “deadline” expires today

By JustMarkets

On Monday, US stock indices showed moderate optimism amid cautious hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.36%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.44%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed the session up 0.54%.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per US dollar, taking advantage of a temporary weakening of the greenback following reports of a potential 45‑day ceasefire. Investor optimism is supported by news that Iran may shift from a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to a system of charging transit fees on tankers – a development that significantly reduces the risk of an uncontrolled inflationary shock. For the Bank of Canada, which keeps its policy rate at 2.25%, such de‑escalation provides a much‑needed breather, allowing the regulator to avoid emergency tightening despite weak manufacturing data (47.6 points) and ongoing pressure on the domestic sector.

European stock markets were closed on Monday due to the Easter holiday.
Silver prices (XAG) continued their downward movement, falling to 72 dollars per ounce. The metal’s dynamics reflect extreme investor confusion as markets attempt to navigate between reports of a possible 45‑day ceasefire and Donald Trump’s hardline ultimatum. Since the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” silver has lost more than 20% of its value, showing the worst performance among precious metals. This is due to its dual nature: as an industrial asset, it suffers from expectations of a global manufacturing slowdown, and as an investment asset, it loses to the US dollar amid expectations of further Fed rate hikes to combat energy‑driven inflation.

Platinum prices (XPT) remain below the psychological threshold of 2,000 dollars per ounce, trading near three‑month lows amid escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. The market is frozen ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline, set for 20:00 on Tuesday (Eastern Time): the threat of strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure has overshadowed the faint hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. Geopolitical tensions and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are fueling energy inflation, reinforcing expectations of tighter central‑bank policy and exerting direct pressure on platinum‑group metals as non‑yielding assets.

The oil market displayed characteristic skepticism: after a brief decline on ceasefire‑related headlines, WTI prices resumed their upward movement, closing above 112 dollars per barrel. This underscores that traders still view the physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a more significant factor than preliminary mediation agreements. The market is now focused on Trump’s deadline, expiring Tuesday at 20:00: the threat of destroying Iran’s civilian infrastructure (bridges and power plants) shifts the conflict into a phase of total economic warfare. The current gap between futures prices and physical oil prices indicates an acute supply shortage that cannot be offset even by releasing strategic reserves.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.55% during the trading session, while China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) did not trade yesterday.

The Australian dollar remains under heavy pressure, holding near a two‑month low at 0.690 USD. For the “aussie,” a high‑risk commodity currency, the combination of an energy shock and potential military escalation creates an extremely toxic environment, only partially softened by last‑minute hopes for diplomatic mediation ahead of the ultimatum. The fundamental picture has been significantly worsened by domestic macroeconomic data: Australia’s March PMI fell into contraction territory for the first time in a year and a half, dropping to 46.6. Particularly alarming is the collapse in the services sector from 52.8 to 46.3, indicating a sharp cooling of consumer activity due to soaring fuel prices and overall geopolitical instability.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,611.83 +29.14 (+0.44%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,669.88 +165.21 (+0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 23,168.08 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,436.29 0 (0%)

USD Index 100.01 −0.02 (−0.02%)

News feed for: 2026.04.07

Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)
German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 Apr

Pound Stays at Six-Month Low as Risks Weigh Ever Harder

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD is consolidating at 1.3232 on Tuesday. The pound remains near its lowest levels globally since late November, with growing pressure stemming from uncertainty over the Iran conflict and rising oil prices.

At the same time, the US dollar continues to draw support from strong US labour market data, which has reduced expectations of Federal Reserve easing.

US President Donald Trump has warned Iran of severe consequences if it refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, according to US intelligence estimates, the likelihood of Tehran meeting these demands remains low.

Meanwhile, the possibility of a 45-day truce involving the US, Iran, and regional mediators is being discussed, which could partially reduce tensions.

Amid high oil prices, investors have effectively ruled out a Fed rate cut this year. In the UK, by contrast, the market is now pricing in two Bank of England rate hikes for 2026. However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has cautioned that such expectations may be excessive.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.3262 level, currently extending down to 1.3180. A move towards 1.3262 is expected in the near term. Following the completion of this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. An upside breakout would open the way for a continuation move to 1.3411, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3120. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3222 level. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3120. Should this level be breached, further downside potential towards 1.3050 would emerge. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range could trigger a rebound to 1.3286. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains pinned near six-month lows as a perfect storm of geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil prices, and diverging central bank expectations weighs heavily on sterling. While strong US labour data has bolstered the dollar by pushing Fed rate cut expectations further out, the UK market’s pricing of two BoE rate hikes for 2026 appears increasingly optimistic, especially given Governor Bailey’s own caution. The possibility of a 45-day truce offers a glimmer of hope for de-escalation, but US intelligence suggests Iranian compliance remains unlikely. Technical indicators point firmly lower, and unless geopolitical tensions ease substantially, the pound faces continued headwinds.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Apr

Geopolitics continues to dominate the global agenda

By JustMarkets

On Friday, US stock indices closed. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.31%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 2.00%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) finished the five‑day period up 2.48%. The upcoming week will be packed with critical data to help assess the true scale of the economic damage caused by the conflict. The ISM Services PMI is expected to be the first indicator to capture supply‑chain disruptions and rising costs. Particular attention will be paid to the March Consumer Price Index, where last year’s low base effect may trigger a sharp jump in the annual reading. Investors will also closely examine the FOMC meeting minutes to understand how the Fed leadership assessed the risks of an inflationary spiral two weeks after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began.

The dynamics of the Mexican peso in early April 2026 are shaped by a tight link to global capital markets and domestic growth challenges. The currency shows extreme sensitivity to risk appetite: the inverse correlation between USD/MXN and the S&P 500 has reached a low level of 0.80, the strongest since 2020. This makes the peso highly vulnerable to any negative news from the Middle East. Mexico’s domestic agenda is shifting from fighting inflation to supporting a stagnating economy. Although consumer prices (CPI) remain above the 2-4% target range, the central bank cut rates at the end of March, signaling a priority on economic growth. February industrial production data, expected later this week, may confirm the negative trend following January’s 1.1% slump. Weakness in the manufacturing sector deprives the peso of fundamental support.

Analysis of the USD/CAD pair in early April 2026 reveals an anomaly: the traditional link between the Canadian dollar and energy markets has nearly disappeared. The correlation between the loonie and oil has turned slightly positive (+0.15), paradoxically indicating CAD weakness even as oil prices rise. The main driver is the overall strength of the US dollar, with a still‑high correlation of 0.60, confirming that global flight to safety outweighs Canada’s status as a resource exporter. Fundamental pressure on the Canadian dollar is intensifying due to troubling labor‑market data. After February’s loss of 108.4 thousand full‑time jobs and a rise in unemployment to 6.7%, investors are anxiously awaiting this week’s employment report. Weak numbers could cement expectations of a dovish Bank of Canada. The probability of a rate hike on April 29 is now below 10%, and expectations for policy tightening in 2026 have shifted to the fourth quarter, leaving the currency without rate‑differential support.

European stock markets were also closed on Friday due to Easter holidays. By the end of the week, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 2.42%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed to 3.50%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the five‑day period up with 4.65%.
WTI crude prices corrected to 111 dollars per barrel after an early‑morning spike to 115.5 dollars. The reversal was triggered by reports of a proposed 45‑day ceasefire between the US, Iran, and regional mediators, which could form the basis for a long‑term settlement. This diplomatic opening emerged against the backdrop of an extremely harsh ultimatum from Donald Trump, who threatened to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not unblocked immediately. Tehran officially rejected Washington’s latest demands, maintaining the effective blockade. Adding fuel to the fire, OPEC+ announced over the weekend that it had approved an increase in production quotas to combat the global shortage, but warned that physical damage to regional energy infrastructure would limit supply long after a formal ceasefire.

Asian markets also mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.65%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.40%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a 1.27% weekly gain.

The dynamics of the Australian dollar in early April 2026 are shaped by a complex interplay of global risk aversion and domestic inflationary pressures. The currency remains highly sensitive to the trajectory of the US dollar (correlation -0.75) and the stock market (correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.62), making it extremely vulnerable during periods of escalation in the Persian Gulf. Notably, the traditional link between the “aussie” and gold has weakened significantly: after peaking at 0.80 last month, the correlation has fallen to 0.45, reflecting the unusual behavior of the precious metal amid the current military crisis.

Domestically, attention is focused on February household‑spending data. The Reserve Bank of Australia responded to strong consumer demand at the end of 2025 with two rate hikes even before hostilities began on February 28. Now, despite geopolitical instability, futures markets are pricing an 80% probability of a third consecutive rate hike, viewing inflation control as the regulator’s top priority even as global growth slows. From a technical standpoint, the Australian dollar appears oversold after falling to a two‑month low near 0.6835.

In early April 2026, China is pursuing a strategy of currency stability, deliberately avoiding yuan devaluation despite the global strengthening of the US dollar. Setting the fixing at 6.8880 – the highest in recent years – indicates Beijing’s desire to minimize the cost of energy imports amid the Hormuz blockade. As the world’s largest oil importer, China faces serious challenges for its industrial sector, yet high fuel prices are paradoxically boosting domestic demand for electric vehicles and solar panels, strengthening the country’s position in the “green” sector. The macroeconomic picture remains uneven: before the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” China was battling consumer deflation, but in February the CPI jumped to a three‑year high of 1.3%. Inflation data for March, expected this week, is outlook by Bloomberg to show producer prices (PPI) returning to positive territory at 0.5%, while consumer inflation stabilizes around 1.2%. These figures will be critical for understanding how deeply disruptions in Iranian oil supplies and US-Israeli military actions have undermined price stability within China.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,582.69 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,504.67 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 23,168.08 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,436.29 0 (0%)

USD Index 100.03 = 0 (0%)

News feed for: 2026.04.06

US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Apr

Gold – 12% Decline Since Middle East Conflict Began: This May Not Be the Limit

By Analytical Department RoboForex

Gold declined to 4,600 USD per troy ounce on Monday, extending losses from the previous session. Pressure intensified after Donald Trump issued a new ultimatum to Iran, threatening strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Trump signalled his readiness to sharply increase pressure and set a new deadline, further heightening tensions in financial markets. Tehran has rejected the demands and continues to target energy facilities in the region.

Since the onset of the conflict, gold has lost approximately 12% of its value. Rising energy prices are amplifying inflation risks and reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates, which limit demand for the metal.

Moreover, gold is not fully fulfilling its traditional role as a safe-haven asset. Some investors are being forced to unwind positions to cover losses in other market segments, adding further downward pressure on prices.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around 4,599 USD. An upside breakout would open the way for a correction towards 4,854 USD, while a downside breakout could mark the beginning of a new downward wave towards 4,477 USD. The MACD indicator confirms the current momentum, with its signal line above the zero line and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has broken above 4,636 USD and is forming a wave towards 4,737 USD. Looking ahead, a corrective move back to 4,636 USD is likely, followed by a renewed advance towards 4,852 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold’s 12% decline since the start of the Middle East conflict highlights a market paradox: escalating geopolitical tensions have failed to support the traditional safe-haven asset. Instead, surging energy prices have intensified inflation concerns, pushing interest rate expectations higher and weighing on the non-yielding metal. Forced liquidation by investors covering losses elsewhere has added to the selling pressure. With Trump issuing a new ultimatum and Tehran rejecting the demands, the conflict shows no signs of easing. While technical indicators suggest scope for a short-term rebound, gold’s broader trajectory remains vulnerable, and further downside cannot be ruled out.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

05 Apr

Large Currency Speculators sharply add to Canadian Dollar Bearish Bets

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (10,634 contracts) with the British Pound (5,757 contracts), the Brazilian Real (3,463 contracts), Bitcoin (147 contracts), and the US Dollar Index (64 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-31,082 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-16,392 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-10,066 contracts), the EuroFX (-8,772 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,774 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-1,582 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators sharply add to Canadian Dollar Bearish Bets

The Canadian Dollar weakness highlights the currencies markets speculator positions for the week. The large speculative Canadian Dollar position fell by over 31,000 contracts this week, marking its third consecutive week in decline and the fourth time out of the past five weeks. In just the past three weeks alone, the Canadian Dollar has shed -68,843 contracts from its overall standing, going from a net position of +36,159 contracts on March 10 to this week’s new total of -32,684 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar had been in bullish territory for a seven-week span from the end of January until the middle of March before speculators started adding bearish positions. In the Foreign Exchange markets this week, the Canadian Dollar fell modestly but has now fallen for four consecutive weeks. Previously, the Canadian Dollar had reached six-month highs in January and February, just above the 0.7415 levels. However, since the beginning of March, the Canadian Dollar has been in a downtrend which has seen its exchange rate fall to 0.7207 at the close of this week. Where the currency goes from here could be determined at its current level around 0.7200, which has been a source of major support numerous times over the past three years.

The Japanese Yen position continues to also go more bearish and fell this week for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The cumulative total of the past six weeks has now fallen by -85,827 contracts, bringing the Japanese Yen position from a bullish level of +12,955 contracts on February 17 to this week’s new total of -72,872 contracts. This week’s net position is now the most bearish since July 2024. The Japanese Yen against the US Dollar closed this week right near the 160.00 major significant level. The Yen is seeing weakness around the lowest levels of the past 30 years. Further upside will run into the 161.00 resistance area, followed by the 161.75 – 162.00 resistance that was challenged in July 2024.

Mexican Peso positions dropped sharply this week by over -16,000 contracts. Peso positioning has been sliding since late January when it was at the end of a seven-week streak where positions were over 100,000 contracts. Since then, Peso speculative positions have cooled off by a total of -45,430 contracts. That has brought the overall position down to this week’s total of 57,684 net positions. The Peso, meanwhile, has been in a nice uptrend over the past year, with prices gaining by approximately 19% since the beginning of February 2025. The Peso has run into weakness over the past six weeks. However, the currency rebounded this week strongly by approximately +1.50%, breaking a previous five-week losing streak.

The Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real lead the Currency market price performances this week

In the Currency markets, the price performance leaders were the Mexican Peso with a 1.46% rise on the week and the Brazilian Real, which increased by 1.30%. Bitcoin was modestly higher by 0.69%, while the Australian Dollar increased by 0.43%. The Japanese Yen ticked up by 0.32%, followed by the Euro, which was higher by 0.26%. Rounding out the gainers was the US Dollar Index, which edged higher by 0.03% on the week. The Swiss Franc was slightly lower by -0.02% and followed by the Canadian Dollar, which was lower by -0.34%. The British Pound was modestly lower by -0.40%, while the New Zealand Dollar rounds out the decliners on the week with a -0.84% decrease in the Currency markets.

Over the past 30 days, the only Currency that has a positive return is the US Dollar Index, which has risen by 2.48% in the past 30 days. While on the downside, Bitcoin has fallen by -5.77%, the New Zealand Dollar has dropped by -5.34%, and the Swiss Franc is down by approximately -4%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (78 percent), Canadian Dollar (70 percent) and the US Dollar Index (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (17 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (29 percent), the Japanese Yen (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (32 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (53.9 percent)
EuroFX (29.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (32.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (30.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (40.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (70.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (83.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (94.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (32.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (53.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.8 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (96.9 percent)

Swiss Franc & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (22 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (13 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the US Dollar Index (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-66 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-25 percent), Japanese Yen (-24 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (9.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (11.7 percent)
EuroFX (-66.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-65.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-4.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-13.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-25.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (7.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (13.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (12.8 percent)
Bitcoin (13.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 3,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 64 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	29.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	41.9	5.5
– Net Position:	3,681	-4,930	1,249
– Gross Longs:	21,708	11,319	3,389
– Gross Shorts:	18,027	16,249	2,140
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	43.2	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-15.3	39.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	59.7	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	64.5	6.0
– Net Position:	507	-36,991	36,484
– Gross Longs:	200,168	462,337	83,289
– Gross Shorts:	199,661	499,328	46,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	68.6	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-66.2	65.0	-35.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -52,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	68.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	43.6	12.3
– Net Position:	-52,665	61,408	-8,743
– Gross Longs:	51,304	167,652	21,248
– Gross Shorts:	103,969	106,244	29,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	84.2	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	9.3	-35.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -72,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	53.9	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	33.4	11.2
– Net Position:	-72,872	70,707	2,165
– Gross Longs:	95,356	185,944	40,898
– Gross Shorts:	168,228	115,237	38,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	68.8	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	21.9	-2.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.0	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	28.2	22.3
– Net Position:	-29,871	35,735	-5,864
– Gross Longs:	9,315	58,243	11,957
– Gross Shorts:	39,186	22,508	17,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	57.8	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-4.7	-34.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -32,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -31,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	55.8	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	40.2	15.2
– Net Position:	-32,684	33,986	-1,302
– Gross Longs:	56,421	121,227	31,625
– Gross Shorts:	89,105	87,241	32,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.4	31.6	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	25.9	-16.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 81,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.7	30.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	71.3	5.5
– Net Position:	81,506	-109,041	27,535
– Gross Longs:	141,775	79,251	42,040
– Gross Shorts:	60,269	188,292	14,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	98.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-15.5	-1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	79.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.4	37.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-28,588	29,446	-858
– Gross Longs:	10,663	55,919	3,735
– Gross Shorts:	39,251	26,473	4,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	67.2	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-4.8	-28.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	45.2	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	78.2	1.4
– Net Position:	57,684	-60,576	2,892
– Gross Longs:	94,183	83,284	5,529
– Gross Shorts:	36,499	143,860	2,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	57.1	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	19.1	-9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.8	28.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	69.6	0.7
– Net Position:	52,711	-56,481	3,770
– Gross Longs:	82,787	39,920	4,727
– Gross Shorts:	30,076	96,401	957
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.9	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-12.3	-4.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	0.8	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.4	9.6	6.1
– Net Position:	2,253	-1,809	-444
– Gross Longs:	14,914	168	805
– Gross Shorts:	12,661	1,977	1,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	16.3	14.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-2.3	-26.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

05 Apr

Speculator Extremes: AUD, Soybean Oil, Bitcoin & Bloomberg Index lead weekly Bullish Bets

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday March 31st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied this week at the top of the extreme standings as the AUD speculator level resides at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 19 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 81,506 net contracts this week with a boost of 10,634 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in tied as well at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a strong gain of 39 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 134,557 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 17,422 contracts in speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position also comes in at the top of the most bullish extreme standings this week with the Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 13 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 2,253 net contracts this week with an increase of 147 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position surged to tie at the top of this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range as the six-week trend for the speculator strength score spiked higher by 74.4 percentage points this week.

The speculator position is currently 23,297 net contracts this week with a gain of 35,029 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes up number five in the extreme standings this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a jump of 41 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -9,415 net contracts this week with a boost of 7,673 contracts in the speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -21,601 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,485 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 2-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -35 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,637,324 net contracts this week with a small rise of 855 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The GBP speculator level resides at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -4 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -52,665 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,757 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing. The Natural Gas speculator level is at a 25 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 12 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -167,456 net contracts this week with an increase of 5,151 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

Next, the Silver speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The Silver speculator level sits at a 27 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was showed no change this week and the speculator position was 23,904 net contracts this week with a retreat by -769 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

05 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (2,567 contracts) with Palladium (192 contracts) and Platinum (139 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,125 contracts), Steel (-3,544 contracts) and with Silver (-769 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Palladium leads the Metals price performance

In the Metals markets this week, Palladium was the biggest winner for price performance with a 7.20% gain over the past 5 days. Platinum was higher as well by 5.09%, while Silver came in third with a 4.48% advance. Gold also rose higher with a strong 4.17% rise. Steel was up by 1.84%, and Copper rounds out the gainers with a 1.62% advance.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Steel

On the downside, Silver (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the next lowest strength score was Gold (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (39.7 percent)
Silver (27.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.3 percent)
Copper (70.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (68.2 percent)
Platinum (51.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.5 percent)
Palladium (85.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (83.7 percent)
Steel (83.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (100.0 percent)

Platinum & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (10 percent) and Gold (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-10 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.4 percent)
Silver (-0.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.9 percent)
Copper (-17.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.8 percent)
Platinum (10.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.3 percent)
Palladium (-10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.6 percent)
Steel (-3.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 163,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 168,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	16.2	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	72.0	3.4
– Net Position:	163,202	-201,640	38,438
– Gross Longs:	207,602	58,697	50,617
– Gross Shorts:	44,400	260,337	12,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	55.4	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-1.9	4.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	26.0	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	59.7	8.3
– Net Position:	23,904	-38,857	14,953
– Gross Longs:	33,463	29,892	24,465
– Gross Shorts:	9,559	68,749	9,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	75.1	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	5.6	-18.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	38.3	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	60.9	4.9
– Net Position:	40,104	-49,809	9,705
– Gross Longs:	71,107	84,546	20,448
– Gross Shorts:	31,003	134,355	10,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.6	27.5	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	20.8	-25.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.5	30.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	66.1	4.6
– Net Position:	16,337	-21,603	5,266
– Gross Longs:	26,303	18,427	8,060
– Gross Shorts:	9,966	40,030	2,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	50.8	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-7.8	-10.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	35.7	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	35.8	7.7
– Net Position:	-1,050	-9	1,059
– Gross Longs:	6,835	5,433	2,228
– Gross Shorts:	7,885	5,442	1,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	17.6	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	9.9	-2.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	61.1	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.8	94.2	0.2
– Net Position:	10,918	-11,312	394
– Gross Longs:	11,871	20,848	473
– Gross Shorts:	953	32,160	79
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	6.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.4	16.6	87.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.5	5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.