02 May

Week Ahead: Crude caught in crosswinds ahead of OPEC+ showdown

By ForexTime 

  • Crude ends April ↓ 18.6%
  • OPEC+ expected to sign off another supply hike
  • Positive US-China trade may support oil bulls
  • Fed decision sparked moves of ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 0.9% over past year
  • Technical levels: $65, $60 & $55

As the countdown draws closer to the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday, 2nd May), markets are bracing for more volatility in the week ahead.

An influx of high-impact data, risk events and key central bank decisions could present fresh trading opportunities:

Saturday, 3rd May 

  • AUD: Australia general election

Sunday, 4th May 

  • Asian Development Bank annual meeting

Monday, 5th May 

  • UK markets closed for Bank holiday
  • OIL: OPEC+ meeting on production levels
  • USDInd: US ISM services

Tuesday, 6th May 

  • AUD: Australia building approvals
  • CN50: China Caixin services PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone HCOB services PMI, PPI
  • US500: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testimony

Wednesday, 7th May

  • CNY: China forex reserves
  • EUR: Eurozone retail sales
  • GER40: Germany factory orders
  • TWN: Taiwan CPI
  • US500: US Fed rate decision

Thursday, 8th May

  • GER40: Germany industrial production
  • ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production
  • UK100: BOE rate decision
  • SEK: Sweden rate decision
  • RUS200: US jobless claims

Friday, 9th May

  • CN50: China trade
  • JP225: Japan household spending, cash earnings
  • CAD: Canada employment
  • USDInd: Fed governors Lisa Cook, Christopher Waller, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech

Our focus lands on oil benchmarks which have shed over 17% year-to-date amid global recession fears and oversupply worries.

Crude oil

Crude prices have recently rebounded on easing trade tensions and new sanctions on Iran. However, the global commodity is still headed for a weekly loss of more than 6%.

And things could spice up further in the week ahead. Here are 4 reasons why:

 

1) OPEC+ meeting on production levels

On Monday 5th May, OPEC+ will meet to decide the supply policy for June. 

Earlier in April, Saudi Arabia shocked markets by pushing OPEC+ for faster output increases in May after Kazakhstan and Iraq produced well above quotas.

Markets expect the cartel to sign off on another supply surge to punish over-producing members.

But most importantly, infighting within the cartel and overproduction could be a recipe for disaster for oil, especially if it leads to a “free-for-all” where members pump at will.

  • Oil prices may tumble if OPEC+ pushes for faster production hikes with any signs of internal instability fuelling downside pressures.
  • Should OPEC+ surprise by slowing down or pausing output hikes, this could boost oil prices as oversupply fears cool.

     

2) US-China trade talks

Market sentiment has received a boost after China said it’s evaluating trade talks with the United States. This comes after weeks of conflicting reports and uncertainty around US-China trade talks.

If this soothes tensions and opens the doors to concrete negotiations, this could cool concerns about a global recession. 

  • More positive progress with US-China trade talks may support oil prices as investors become more hopeful about the demand outlook.
  • Should the talks lead to more uncertainty or result in renewed tensions, oil prices may take a hit.

     

3) Fed rate decision

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its May meeting, but all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.

Friday’s incoming US jobs report along with developments on the trade front, may influence what tone Powell strikes on Wednesday 7th May. 

Traders are currently pricing in 3 rate cuts in 2025 with the probability of a 4th one by December at 67%. Any major shifts to these expectations may influence oil prices. 

  1. Lower interest rates could stimulate economic growth, which fuels oil demand.
  2. Lower interest rates may also lead to a weaker dollar, boosting oil which is priced in dollars.

The same can be said vice versa.

  • If Powell strikes a hawkish note and the dollar appreciates, oil prices may slip. 
  • If Powell sounds more dovish and signals faster rate cuts, oil prices may jump. 

     

Over the past 12 months, the Fed rate decision has triggered upside moves on CRUDE of as much as 0.4% or declines of 0.9% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

4) Technical forces

Crude is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 30, signalling that prices are oversold.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above $60 may pave a path toward the 50-day SMA near $65.00 and potentially the 100-day SMA $68.80 in the medium to longer term.
  •  Should $60 prove to be a tough resistance, prices may slip back towards $55 and levels not seen since January 2021 at $51.50. 

     

crude d3

Note: This chart was created before the release of the US NFP report on Friday 2nd May. 

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Energy Opinions
02 May

Whether GDP swings up or down, there are limits to what it says about the economy and your place in it

By Sophie Mitra, Fordham University 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest U.S. gross domestic product data on April 30. In the first three months of 2025, it said, GDP contracted by 0.3%. The GDP growth rate captures the pace at which the total value of goods and services grows or shrinks. Together with unemployment and inflation, it usually receives a lot of attention as an indicator of economic performance.

Some economists and analysts said the economy might not be as bad as this rate’s decline might suggest. While this is the first time in three years that GDP has shrunk instead of growing, it is a relatively small decline.

This raises a critical question: Does a relatively small GDP contraction mean the economy is in trouble? I have spent much of my working life studying economic well-being at the level of individuals or families.

What I’ve learned can offer a different lens on the economy than you’d get from just focusing on the most popular indicators, such as the GDP growth rate.

GDP problems

The GDP growth rate has many limitations as an economic indicator. It captures only a very narrow slice of economic activity: goods and services. It pays no attention to what is produced, how it is produced or how people assess their economic lives.

GDP gets a lot of attention, in part, because of the misconception that economics only has to do with market transactions, money and wealth. But economics is also about people and their livelihoods.

Many economists would agree that economics treats wealth or the production of goods and services as means to improve human lives.

Since the 1990s, a number of international commissions and research projects have come up with ways to go beyond GDP. In 2008, the French government asked two Nobel Prize winners, Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen, as well as the late economist Jean-Paul Fitoussi, to put together an international commission of experts to come up with new ways to measure economic performance and progress. In their 2010 report, they argued that there is a need to “shift emphasis from measuring economic production to measuring people’s well-being.”

Considering complementary metrics

One approach is to use a composite index that combines data on a variety of aspects of a country’s well-being into a single statistic. That one number could unfold into a detailed picture of the situation of a country if you zoom into each underlying indicator, by demographic group or region.

The production of such composite indices has flourished. For example, the Human Development Index of the United Nations, started in 1990, covers income per capita, life expectancy at birth and education. This index shows how focusing on GDP alone can mislead the public about a country’s economic performance.

In 2024, the U.S. ranked fifth in the world in terms of GDP per capita, but was in 20th place on the Human Development Index due to relatively lower life expectancy and years of schooling compared to other countries at the top of the list, like Switzerland and Norway.

Monitoring other indicators

Another approach is to rely on a larger number of indicators that are frequently updated. These other data points reflect a variety of perspectives about the economy, including subjective ones that convey personal perceptions and experiences.

For instance, in addition to inflation rates, there is data on stress due to inflation as well as inflation expectations. Both offer insights into people’s perceptions, perspectives and experiences about inflation.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the annual U.S. inflation rate increased from 1% in July 2020 to 8.5% in July 2022. My research partners and I found, using U.S. Census data, that more than 3 in 4 adults in the U.S. were experiencing moderate or high levels of stress due to inflation at that time and continued to do so even after inflation went down in 2023.

More recently, the Trump administration’s sporadic tariff changes have made future prices more uncertain, which exposes people to risks. That, in turn, makes people adjust their expectations and feel worse off.

The share of consumers expecting higher inflation rates has climbed sharply in 2025, while consumer confidence has declined abruptly. About 1 in 3 consumers expect that there will be fewer jobs created in the next six months, which is almost as low as during the Great Recession of 2007-2009.

Consumers also have negative expectations about their own future income and worry about their own economic status.

At this moment, the U.S. economy has not officially entered a recession – which requires a longer period of GDP contraction than just one quarter. Although unemployment and inflation rates remain relatively low, the broad picture of the economy that takes into account people’s expectations and perceptions is troubling. To be clear, I’m not saying that just because of what the GDP data may indicate.

This article includes material from an article originally published on Aug. 7, 2018.The Conversation

About the Author:

Sophie Mitra, Professor of Economics, Fordham University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
01 May

US GDP unexpectedly contracted. Oil prices fell by 18% over the month.

By JustMarkets

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.35%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.15%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 0.13%. Investors brushed off recession fears despite data showing the economy contracted for the first quarterly contraction in three years. The US economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter, missing expectations as businesses rushed to import goods before Trump’s tariffs took effect. While consumer spending rose a stronger-than-expected 0.7% in March, low hiring and government spending cuts underscored growing economic pressures.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.38 per dollar, its strongest level since October, after the Bank of Canada’s latest meeting minutes showed a marked pullback from its earlier dovish rhetoric. The minutes emphasized the need for caution, expressing concerns that further easing could jeopardize efforts to control inflation, thus lowering expectations of a rate cut soon. The longs were further boosted by preliminary data that Canada’s economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter, avoiding a technical recession and in sharp contrast to the US.

The Mexican peso is holding near 19.60 per US dollar, remaining at its highest level in six months, as investors digest the latest data on economic growth. The Mexican economy avoided a technical recession thanks to preliminary first-quarter GDP growth of 0.2%, beating expectations of stagnation and recovering from a 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.50% higher, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) Index fell by 0.59%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.37%. While the US economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, Eurozone GDP growth came in above analysts’ expectations. The German economy emerged from a brief downturn, posting a 0.2% growth in Q1 after contracting 0.2% in the previous quarter, which matched expectations. Meanwhile, German inflation fell for the second consecutive month to 2.1% in April, the lowest since October 2024, but still slightly above the market prognoses of 2.0%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 3.7% to $58.20 a barrel on Wednesday, posting their steepest monthly drop since the end of 2021, down 18% amid growing concerns about a global supply glut and weakening demand. Prices were pressured by Saudi Arabia’s signal to increase production and regain market share, while OPEC+ is reportedly considering additional production increases at its May 5 meeting, adding to fears of a renewed price war.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.57%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.61%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.51%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.69%.

In New Zealand, markets are firmly expecting a 25bps rate cut at the Central Bank’s meeting later this month, with rates set to be at 2.75% by October. On the economic front, recent data showed that business confidence in New Zealand deteriorated in April due to concerns over US tariffs. For April, the kiwi dollar rose strongly by 4.6%.

The Australian dollar climbed above US$0.64 on Thursday, building on gains made in the previous session following the release of strong trade balance data. Australia reported a trade surplus of A$6.9 billion in March, up significantly from February’s A$2.85 billion. The currency was further supported by April data, which showed that manufacturing activity continued to grow, and new orders increased at the fastest pace in almost two and a half years, which is a positive sign for domestic demand.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,569.06 +8.23 (+0.15%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,669.36 +141.74 (+0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 22,496.98 +71.15 (+0.32%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,494.85 +31.39 (+0.37%)

USD Index 99.64 (+0.41%)

News feed for: 2025.05.01

  • Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
30 Apr

Inflation in Australia continues to decline. China’s PMI data disappointed investors

By JustMarkets 

The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.75% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.58%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.61%. Stocks headed higher on Tuesday after weaker-than-expected reports on US job openings and consumer confidence crashed 10-year T-note yields to 3-week lows, raising the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Markets have moved to estimate a 100 bps Fed rate cut within a year, compared with the Central Bank’s 50 bps announcement last month.

A preliminary estimate saw the US trade deficit widen sharply to $162 billion in March 2025, a record high, exceeding the market consensus expectations of $146 billion, as tariffs threatened by the US government force domestic companies to increase imports.

The Canadian dollar hit 1.38 per dollar, trading near its highest level in six months, as G10 currencies continued to receive support from a flight from dollar assets and markets assessed the outlook for domestic economic policy under the newly elected Liberal Party government. Canada’s Liberal Party won its fourth consecutive election by a relatively small margin, which put little pressure on the CAD after expectations of a majority victory. Still, it made former Bank of England and BoE Governor Mark Carney the Prime Minister of a minority government. So far, the incumbent PM has refrained from prioritizing a trade deal with the US, emphasizing Canada’s influence and preferring to make deals with other countries. At the same time, the Bank of Canada noted that an uncertain US trade policy risks a recession in Canada if the US continues to impose an aggressive tariff package.

Equity markets in Europe traded without a single dynamic yesterday. German DAX (DE40) gained 0.69%, French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.24%, Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.66%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher 0.55%. Frankfurt’s DAX Index rose about 0.7% on Tuesday to 22,426, its highest level since early April and marking its sixth consecutive session of gains. The rise came as investors weighed a wave of corporate earnings and former President Trump’s proposal to cut tariffs on auto parts for US-made vehicles. Germany’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank, was also in the spotlight, rising 5% after posting better-than-expected first-quarter earnings.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 2% to below $61 a barrel, a two-week low, and extended a 1.5% decline in the previous session as global trade tensions and weak US data worsened the demand outlook. Oil is on track for its sharpest monthly decline since 2021, falling 15% in April, as fears grow that President Trump’s escalating tariffs could push the global economy into recession. The US consumer confidence fell, adding to signs of economic strain.

Asian markets were mostly rising on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.16%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.92%. Hong Kong stocks fell 72 points in early trading on Wednesday, reversing the previous session’s modest gains, as investors reacted to China’s April PMI data. Official data showed factory activity contracted by the most in 16 months, amid growing concerns about the impact of rising US tariffs. In contrast, the private survey showed unexpected growth in manufacturing, albeit at the slowest pace since January. Meanwhile, growth in the services sector also weakened, with the reading falling short of expectations.

Headline inflation in Australia rose by 2.4% in the first quarter, in line with the previous quarter’s pace and slightly above market expectations of 2.3%. However, core inflation fell to 2.9% from 3.3%, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut soon. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut its monetary rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in May, with markets’ pricing in further easing to 2.85% by year-end. The outlook is shaped by rising domestic economic uncertainty and heightened external risks, particularly the potential global impact of new US tariffs.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,560.83 +32.08 (+0.58%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,527.62 +300.03 (+0.75%)

DAX (DE40) 22,425.83 +154.16 (+0.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,463.46 +46.12 (+0.55%)

USD Index 99.19 +0.18 (+0.18%)

News feed for: 2025.04.30

  • Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Thailand BoT Interest Rate Decision at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • German GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • Mexico GDP (q/q) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
30 Apr

Japanese Yen Edges Lower as Weak Data Dampens Confidence

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The USD/JPY pair is rising cautiously for a second consecutive day, reaching 142.48, as a string of underwhelming economic figures from Japan weighs on market sentiment.

Key factors driving USD/JPY Movement

March’s economic data revealed a larger-than-expected contraction in industrial production, while retail sales growth also fell short of forecasts. Collectively, these indicators point to potential challenges for Japan’s economy.

Market focus now shifts to the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.5%.

The BoJ’s commentary will likely remain cautious as policymakers assess the potential fallout from new US tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy.

In a recent development, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the Trump administration has extensively discussed a potential trade agreement with Japan – a sign that bilateral tensions may be easing.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USDJPY has broken below the 142.75 level and continues to decline towards 141.56. This move is considered a correction within the broader upward trend. Once this correction ends, a new bullish wave towards 144.00 may begin. A breakout above 144.00 could pave the way for a further rise towards the local target of 146.40. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below zero and sloping decisively downwards.

On the H1 chart, USDJPY is consolidating around the 142.30 level. A rise towards 142.75 is possible today, followed by a decline to 141.67, which marks a local target for the corrective move. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 and preparing to reverse towards 20.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure amid a lacklustre economic performance while traders await fresh cues from the BoJ. While a technical rebound appears likely after the correction, the pair’s near-term trajectory will hinge on trade developments and US tariff policy.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
29 Apr

WTI oil prices continue to decline. The Canadian dollar weakened amid the federal elections

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.28%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.06%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 0.09%. Wall Street is gearing up for a busy week of important earnings releases and crucial economic data. Key GDP, inflation, and employment reports coming out this week are expected to provide new insights into the economic outlook. Investors are focused on upcoming quarterly results from Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms and Microsoft, as well as signs of how President Trump’s sweeping tariffs affect the companies’ prospects. While earnings largely beat expectations, uncertainty surrounding the tariffs caused many companies to lower their second-quarter projections.

The Canadian dollar weakened to around $1.39, reversing gains from the previous session as investors awaited the final election results. Early expectations suggested that Canada’s ruling Liberal Party may retain power, although the final results remain uncertain, as the Liberals are still short of the 172 seats needed for a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons. Mark Carney’s bid for a stronger mandate to manage US tariffs faced opposition from stronger-than-expected Conservatives, raising the possibility of a minority government that may have to negotiate policy support.

The Mexican peso held below 19.6 per US dollar, near a six-month high of 19.51 on April 25, helped by the Bank of Mexico’s hawkish outlook. The country’s unemployment rate hit a record low of 2.2% in March, indicating a resilient labor market in the face of restrictive policies, and core inflation accelerated to 3.9% in mid-April — the highest level since September 2024 — confirming the Bank of Mexico’s decision to keep the benchmark rate at 11%. This large differential in real interest rates continues to attract carry-trade inflows.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.50% higher, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.75%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.03%. Hopes for improved trade relations between the US and China also helped boost market sentiment. In Europe, traders were expecting corporate earnings: Porsche, Schneider Electric, and Deutsche Boerse are due to report.

WTI crude prices fell more than 2% to below $62 a barrel on Monday as concerns over rising tariffs threatened to reduce fuel consumption while supply rose. OPEC+ surprised markets by agreeing to raise output by about 411,000 barrels a day in May, reversing much of last year’s cuts, and US oil production is holding steady at a record 13.5 million barrels a day amid a rising rig count. Barrel discounts from Iran and Russia further boosted stocks in Asia, adding to the glut.

Asian markets were mostly rising on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.38% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.36%. China reiterated that it is not involved in trade talks with the US, clarifying that Chinese President Xi Jinping has not spoken to President Donald Trump despite Trump’s statement in a recent Time interview. Domestically, expectations are rising that the Reserve Bank of Australia will make another 25 basis point rate cut in May amid growing economic uncertainty and worsening global trade concerns. Investors are now awaiting Australian inflation data due for release on Wednesday to gain further insight into the RBA’s future actions.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,528.75 +3.54 (+0.06%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,227.59 +114.09 (+0.28%)

DAX (DE40) 22,271.67 +29.22 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,417.34 +2.09 (+0.03%)

USD Index 98.93 -0.54 (-0.54%)

News feed for: 2025.04.29

  • German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
29 Apr

GBP/USD Hits New High: The Pound Defies Market Pressures

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The British pound has reached another three-year peak against the US dollar, stabilising around 1.3400.

Key factors driving GBP/USD strength

Sterling is closing April with its strongest monthly performance since November 2023, gaining over 3% against the US dollar.

Two key factors support the pound’s resilience:

  1. Monetary policy divergence – Markets expect the Bank of England (BoE) to slow the pace of interest rate cuts compared to other central banks. Current projections suggest the BoE will reduce rates by 85 basis points in 2025, roughly in line with expectations for the US Federal Reserve.
  2. Dollar alternatives in demand – Investors seek alternatives to the US dollar, and the UK appears less vulnerable to US tariff risks. A 90-day moratorium on increased US tariffs expires in late July, renewing global economic uncertainties.

Against this backdrop, the UK and its currency appear more stable than many peers.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 chart

  • GBP/USD continues to consolidate around 1.3344, with the range now extending to 1.3440.
  • A downside retest of 1.3344 is expected, followed by potential upward momentum towards 1.3455, defining the range boundaries.
  • A break below consolidation could trigger a downward wave targeting 1.3080 as the initial objective.
  • The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero but poised for a decline.

H1 chart

  • The pair has broken above 1.3344, achieving a local target at 1.3440
  • A corrective decline towards 1.3344 is anticipated before potential renewed growth towards 1.3455
  • The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, with its signal line below 20 and primed for an upward move towards 80

 

Conclusion

The pound remains defensive yet strong, buoyed by relative monetary policy stability and its appeal as a dollar alternative. Technically, the pair is testing key levels, with further direction contingent on consolidation breaks.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex and Currency News Opinions
28 Apr

Trade tensions remain in focus. ECB aims at further rate cuts

By JustMarkets 

The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.05% on Friday (+3.10% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.74% (for the week +5.59%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped 1.14% (for the week +7.82%). The US stocks closed higher on Friday, posting their fourth consecutive session of gains, helped by strength in large technology companies. Alphabet shares rose by 1.5% after beating earnings expectations, announcing its first-ever dividend, and revealing a $70 billion share repurchase plan. Tesla shares are up 9.8% after unveiling new rules for self-driving cars. Intel is down 7% due to weak expectations, and T-Mobile is down 11% due to low subscriber growth.

President Trump’s recent statements on tariffs have left trade tensions in the spotlight. Trump’s suggestion of 50% tariffs as a “total victory” added uncertainty, and Beijing disputed claims of ongoing negotiations, which offset optimism from China’s decision to exempt some US goods from tariffs.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index showed inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 6.5%, the highest since 1981. However, the figure was slightly lower than the 6.7% in the preliminary release. Long-term inflation expectations rose to 4.4% from 4.1%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.81% (for the week +3.77%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.45% higher (for the week +3.07%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.33% (for the week +3.35%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.09% higher (for the week +1.69%). This is the fourth consecutive session of gains, helped by strong corporate results across Europe and renewed hopes of easing trade tensions between the US and China. Reports that China may slap a 125% tariff on some US imports and President Trump’s more conciliatory tone toward Beijing eased fears of a potentially devastating global trade war.

European Central Bank (ECB) governors are becoming increasingly confident of cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues its downward march. Data from the Eurozone also showed that business activity growth slowed this month, and wage growth is expected to fall significantly. Crucially for inflation, the 20% tariffs tentatively imposed by Trump on European goods have been less harsh than the ECB had anticipated, and the risk of retaliatory measures from the European Union has so far been averted.

WTI crude oil prices rose nearly negative 0.4% to settle at $63/bbl on Friday, but posted a weekly loss of more than positive 1% amid lingering oversupply concerns and uncertainty over US-China trade talks. Market sentiment remained cautious as there were reports that the US and Russia are moving towards ending the conflict in Ukraine, although key terms have yet to be defined. Adding to geopolitical tensions was the fact that the US imposed new sanctions this week against a key Iranian figure involved in the transportation of oil and liquefied natural gas.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) slipped to as low as $33.30 an ounce on Friday, trimming gains made earlier in the week as signs of easing global trade tensions drove the dollar higher, putting pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.33%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 4.34%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 2.66%.

China remains confident of achieving its 2025 economic growth target of around 5%. Despite the negative impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, Chinese policymakers are optimistic that the US will soften its stance first, allowing Beijing to proceed with its planned stimulus measures. Central Bank deputy governor Zou Lan reiterated the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, increased economic support and efforts to keep the yuan stable.

Singapore’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 2.1% in Q1 2025, up from 1.9% in the previous three quarters, according to Express estimates. This is the highest unemployment rate in a year, driven by slowing economic activity and escalating global trade tensions. The worsening economic outlook is expected to affect companies’ hiring and wage expectations.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,525.21 +40.44 (+0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,113.50 +20.10 (+0.050%)

DAX (DE40) 22,242.45 +177.94 (+0.81%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,415.25 +7.81 (+0.093%)

USD Index 99.59 +0.21 (+0.21%)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
28 Apr

Gold Under Pressure as Market Hopes for US-China Trade Progress

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The price of gold fell on Monday, dropping to 3,290 USD per troy ounce amid easing market tensions.

Key factors driving gold’s decline

The sell-off in the safe-haven asset was driven by reduced risk aversion, as trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of easing. This weakened gold’s appeal as a traditional hedge against uncertainty.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump hinted at a potential softening of his tough trade stance towards China, signalling the possibility of tariff negotiations. On Friday, China exempted certain US goods from its 25% tariffs, though Beijing stopped short of confirming any scheduled trade talks with Washington.

Additional downward pressure came from a strengthening US dollar, which made dollar-priced gold more expensive for foreign investors.

Upcoming US economic data in focus. This week, a raft of key US economic indicators will be released, including:

  • The first estimate of Q1 2025 GDP
  • Core PCE inflation data for March
  • April employment figures

These reports could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves and the broader economic outlook.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is forming the fifth structure in the first wave of decline to the 3,232 level. A move to this target level seems likely. Further, a correction to the level of 3,365 is possible. After completing this correction, a new wave of decline to the 3,100 level is probable. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line under the zero level and directed strictly downwards.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD has formed a consolidation range around the level of 3,300, and with an exit down, a decline to 3,232 is probable. Today, the fifth wave of the decline to at least 3,232 seems highly likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under the 50 level and directed strictly downwards to the 20 level.

Conclusion

Gold remains vulnerable to further losses amid improving US-China trade sentiment and a stronger dollar. Traders will closely monitor upcoming US data for further directional cues.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
27 Apr

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index Bets into Bearish territory

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI FX Futures COT Chart

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (16,693 contracts) with the British Pound (13,981 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,896 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (6,183 contracts), the Japanese Yen (5,959 contracts), the Australian Dollar (4,266 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,110 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (855 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-4,252 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,802 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-1,392 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index Bets into Bearish territory

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued decrease in sentiment for the US Dollar Index. Speculative positions for the USD Index declined this week by -2,802 contracts and have fallen in five out of the last six weeks. This amounts to a total decline of approximately -10,000 net contracts over the past six weeks.

The deterioration in sentiment has brought the Dollar Index into its first bearish position (currently at -974 net contracts) since December, a span of 19 weeks dating back to December 10th 2024.

The Dollar Index (DXY) price has been falling sharply as well and the DXY closed this week under the major 100.00 level for the first time since a very brief spell in July of 2023. The DXY has tested this level numerous times over the past few years but has bounced higher each time. The DXY price has experienced a sharp decrease since January with an approximate decline by 10% which is a significant move for a major currency in a short amount of time.
The current pricing for the DXY is oversold and could bring dip buyers into the market but continued bearish action would bring the 95 level into play which looks to be the next major historical support level. The next level lower would by the 92-93 area which has not been touched since 2021.
Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (100 percent) are at extreme high levels and lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (58 percent) and the EuroFX (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (33 percent), Bitcoin (34 percent) and the Australian Dollar (38 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (10.5 percent)
EuroFX (53.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (55.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (39.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (98.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (49.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (50.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (34.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (45.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (99.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (98.8 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (64.1 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (34 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (23 percent), the EuroFX (20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-37 percent), Australian Dollar (-5 percent) and the British Pound (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-36.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-26.8 percent)
EuroFX (19.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (30.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (33.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-4.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (30.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (7.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-50.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.928.29.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.822.212.0
– Net Position:-9741,985-1,011
– Gross Longs:18,6969,2862,951
– Gross Shorts:19,6707,3013,962
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.798.016.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.938.0-19.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.355.813.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.272.26.0
– Net Position:65,028-117,94152,913
– Gross Longs:196,205401,25796,353
– Gross Shorts:131,177519,19843,440
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.541.090.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.8-23.940.4

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.430.316.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.044.513.6
– Net Position:20,490-25,4394,949
– Gross Longs:94,02154,47729,322
– Gross Shorts:73,53179,91624,373
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.351.372.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.92.83.7

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a new all-time record high net position of 177,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.628.612.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.085.86.1
– Net Position:177,814-200,92223,108
– Gross Longs:202,373100,29944,643
– Gross Shorts:24,559301,22121,535
– Long to Short Ratio:8.2 to 10.3 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.1-13.118.1

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.374.418.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.237.719.8
– Net Position:-25,47426,742-1,268
– Gross Longs:5,32254,22613,198
– Gross Shorts:30,79627,48414,466
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.343.173.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.3-25.217.0

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -67,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 16,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.482.29.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.352.911.9
– Net Position:-67,16773,173-6,006
– Gross Longs:18,357205,32523,821
– Gross Shorts:85,524132,15229,827
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.944.626.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.7-35.222.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -54,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.265.812.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.939.410.5
– Net Position:-54,58250,4304,152
– Gross Longs:27,175125,58324,156
– Gross Shorts:81,75775,15320,004
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.660.060.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.5-3.029.8

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.877.16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.733.37.2
– Net Position:-26,89527,449-554
– Gross Longs:9,89748,3333,948
– Gross Shorts:36,79220,8844,502
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.465.046.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:30.1-31.323.4

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.943.23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.375.72.8
– Net Position:41,165-42,3481,183
– Gross Longs:67,62456,3414,828
– Gross Shorts:26,45998,6893,645
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.752.429.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.7-6.25.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 49,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:71.223.54.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.381.52.2
– Net Position:49,887-51,6821,795
– Gross Longs:63,53421,0103,743
– Gross Shorts:13,64772,6921,948
– Long to Short Ratio:4.7 to 10.3 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.70.431.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.6-7.4-0.7

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.83.84.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:84.61.73.8
– Net Position:-806612194
– Gross Longs:23,0581,0801,253
– Gross Shorts:23,8644681,059
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 12.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.778.738.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-50.947.725.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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