InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (73,681 contracts) with Soybeans (25,583 contracts), Wheat (20,463 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,962 contracts), Sugar (9,741 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,704 contracts), Coffee (5,163 contracts) and Soybean Meal (4,314 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cocoa (-10,597 contracts) with Cotton (-4,552 contracts) and Live Cattle (-6,313 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Corn Speculators push their bullish bets sharply higher on drought

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the renewed bullish appetite of the Corn’s speculator’s positioning. The speculator positioning sharply jumped this week by over +73,681 contracts following a gain of +59,863 contracts last week. The Corn speculative bets have risen in four straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks.

The grains markets have been starting to see higher prices coming back over the past month due to a drought in the US Midwest that has been stated as the worst since 2012. Speculators have been reacting to the changes in the weather and have now pushed their overall net standing for Corn back into a bullish position last week after spending the previous six weeks in bearish territory.

Corn’s futures price had been on a rise for three out of the previous four weeks and touched a nine-week high this week above 672.0 but ended up closing the week lower at the 630.6 price level.

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Cocoa

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (93 percent), Cocoa (89 percent) and Sugar (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (14 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (39.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.7 percent)
Sugar (83.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (79.7 percent)
Coffee (61.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.5 percent)
Soybeans (23.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (63.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (61.6 percent)
Live Cattle (93.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.0 percent)
Cotton (13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (17.2 percent)
Cocoa (88.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (19.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.1 percent)

Corn & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (25 percent) and Soybean Oil (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (13 percent), Soybeans (10 percent) and Soybean Meal (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent) and Lean Hogs (6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.0 percent)
Sugar (-5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.7 percent)
Coffee (-0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-8.5 percent)
Soybeans (9.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (21.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (8.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.5 percent)
Cotton (4.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (5.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.0 percent)
Wheat (13.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 118,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 73,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 261,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 88,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,949 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 107,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 105,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,249 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -66,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,860 contracts) with Soybeans (609 contracts) and Cocoa (199 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-23,423 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-15,489 contracts), Coffee (-9,128 contracts), Cotton (-7,707 contracts), Wheat (-7,677 contracts), Lean Hogs (-2,262 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,385 contracts) and Live Cattle (-269 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Wheat Speculators continue to raise bearish bets to 279-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the rising bearish level of the Wheat’s speculator’s positioning.

Wheat speculator bets continued to fall again this week for a second straight week and for the eleventh time out of the past fifteen weeks. Speculator positions have now added approximately -60,000 contracts to the bearish level over the past fifteen weeks.

The Wheat speculator standing, currently at -93,996 contracts, has fallen to the most bearish level of the past 279 weeks, dating back to January 23rd of 2018.

Wheat prices have also been on the downtrend since hitting all-time record high levels in March of 2022 and have now fallen over 50 percent from those highest levels of 2022. Wheat futures closed this week at $619.00 with the low of this week touching the lowest price since December of 2020 near 573.20

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (79 percent), Soybean Meal (57 percent) and Coffee (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Soybean Oil (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Wheat (0 percent) and the Soybeans (1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (27.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (22.1 percent)
Sugar (79.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (87.7 percent)
Coffee (51.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (57.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (65.1 percent)
Live Cattle (91.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.9 percent)
Cotton (19.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.5 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (99.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.5 percent)

Cocoa & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (8 percent) and Cotton (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybeans (-58 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-19 percent), Wheat (-17 percent) and Corn (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-21.2 percent)
Sugar (-6.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.0 percent)
Coffee (-13.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.1 percent)
Soybeans (-58.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-59.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-12.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-18.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-7.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.0 percent)
Cotton (7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.3 percent)
Cocoa (7.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-13.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 41,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 250,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 273,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 94,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 101,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,707 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 23rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (20,764 contracts) with Sugar (2,981 contracts), Coffee (1,713 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,620 contracts) and Cocoa (1,319 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-13,808 contracts) with Soybeans (-8,949 contracts), Soybean Meal (-2,319 contracts), Wheat (-4,907 contracts), Live Cattle (-469 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-5,118 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlights of Weekly positions:

Cotton speculative bets this week (+20,764 contracts) jumped by the highest weekly amount in over a year. This has brought the current speculator standing to the most bullish level (+22,319 contracts) since October of 2021. Cotton prices have had a big downfall since their highs in May of 2022 with a peak-to-trough drop of over 50 percent but looked to have bottomed for the time being.

Soybeans bets have dropped sharply over the past two months with speculator positions falling for seven straight weeks. The current net position for Soybeans is at the lowest level since November of 2021 due to an expectation of a record crop in the United States.

Wheat speculator bets dipped again this week and have declined in ten out of the past fourteen weeks. Wheat prices have cooled off markedly since screaming higher at the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The futures price has fallen over 50 percent from the highest levels of 2022 and has recently crossed below the 200-week moving average.

Corn speculator positions declined this week and have now fallen by a total of -167,903 contracts over the past 5-week period. This recent bearishness has brought the speculator positioning into an overall bearish level for the first time since August of 2020. Like many of the other agriculture soft commodities, Corn prices are down from their 2022 highs with the current Corn level lower by about 25 percent from May 2022.

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (88 percent), Soybean Meal (65 percent) and Coffee (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (1 percent), Soybeans (1 percent) and the Wheat (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (22.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.8 percent)
Sugar (87.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (86.7 percent)
Coffee (61.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.3 percent)
Soybeans (0.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.3 percent)
Live Cattle (92.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (4.3 percent)
Cotton (25.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.9 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.4 percent)
Wheat (2.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.4 percent)

Cotton & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (19 percent) and Coffee (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (8 percent), Cocoa (7 percent) and Sugar (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-59 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-21 percent), Wheat (-14 percent) and Soybean Oil (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-21.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-17.1 percent)
Sugar (5.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.6 percent)
Coffee (8.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybeans (-59.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-57.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-0.4 percent)
Live Cattle (7.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.5 percent)
Cotton (19.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (6.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.6 percent)
Wheat (-14.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-15.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -62,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 273,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 270,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -27,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 110,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 101,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 65,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -86,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (10,356 contracts) with Cocoa (2,359 contracts) and Lean Hogs (135 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-80,988 contracts), Soybeans (-73,414 contracts), Wheat (-12,652 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,017 contracts), Cotton (-9,883 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,806 contracts), Coffee (-409 contracts) and Live Cattle (-38 contracts).

Cocoa bullish bets hit highest since March 2020

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the multi-year high in bullish bets of the Cocoa speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Cocoa rose this week for the first time in the past four weeks but the boost pushed the overall net position to its highest level since 2020. This week’s gain brought the Cocoa speculator net position to a total of +61,714 contracts which marks the most bullish level of the past 164 weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020.

Cocoa trader sentiment and futures prices have been pushed higher recently due to increased demand and because of supply issues arising out of Africa. Nigeria’s exports as well as the Ivory Coast’s exports have been on the decline while dryer weather conditions have also hampered production on the continent. Meanwhile, the demand for Cocoa is being forecast to grow approximately 5 percent annually for the next decade.

The Cocoa futures price fell modestly this week but has been on a strong bullish trend since hitting a recent low in September. Last week, the futures price hit its highest level since 2016 right around the 2995 price before retreating this week to 2937.

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (90 percent), Soybean Meal (66 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and the Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (43.5 percent)
Sugar (89.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (86.1 percent)
Coffee (64.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.4 percent)
Soybeans (30.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (58.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (75.6 percent)
Live Cattle (92.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (4.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (12.1 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (97.0 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (9.7 percent)

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (38 percent) and Coffee (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (17 percent) and Live Cattle (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-24 percent), Lean Hogs (-19 percent) and Wheat (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-2.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.3 percent)
Sugar (17.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (10.1 percent)
Coffee (24.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (22.5 percent)
Soybeans (-25.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-24.4 percent)
Live Cattle (7.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-7.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-17.5 percent)
Cotton (-2.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-1.1 percent)
Cocoa (37.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.9 percent)
Wheat (-13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -80,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 279,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 269,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 104,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -73,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 111,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent.

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 61,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (14,357 contracts) with Coffee (12,124 contracts), Sugar (9,384 contracts), Cotton (7,749 contracts), Live Cattle (7,456 contracts) and Corn (2,327 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-1,836 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-3,065 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,095 contracts), Wheat (-3,854 contracts) and Cocoa (-558 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar Speculators boost bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued bullish strength in the Sugar speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Sugar rose this week for the fourth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators have added a total of +58,516 contracts to the net position over the past 4-week period.

The bullish sentiment has now pushed the Sugar net speculator positions to their highest level in the past 84-weeks, dating back to September 9th of 2021.

Sugar’s speculator strength score level (a 3-year range of speculator positions, on a 0-100 percent scale) has also increased with a score of 86.5 percent this week and up from a score of 83.3 percent last week. Its 6-week trend of strength scores has increased by 10 percent.

The Sugar futures price has also been flying high and touched its highest level since April of 2012 this week. The Sugar front-month futures price has risen for five consecutive weeks and closed at approximately $24.83 on Friday. Sugar futures are now up by over 40 percent since October.

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (86 percent), Soybean Meal (76 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Wheat (2 percent) and the Cotton (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (43.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (43.2 percent)
Sugar (86.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (83.3 percent)
Coffee (65.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (52.9 percent)
Soybeans (58.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (75.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (68.1 percent)
Live Cattle (92.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (84.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.7 percent)
Cotton (12.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (97.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.5 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Sugar (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (6 percent) and Wheat (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-21 percent), Lean Hogs (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.1 percent)
Sugar (9.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.4 percent)
Coffee (22.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybeans (-1.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-20.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-22.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-7.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-14.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-17.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-17.9 percent)
Cotton (-1.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.8 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.7 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 105,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 269,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 177,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 130,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (17,619 contracts) with Sugar (13,137 contracts), Coffee (12,229 contracts), Live Cattle (8,442 contracts), Cotton (3,464 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,969 contracts) and Soybean Meal (2,810 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-5,883 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-4,303 contracts), Soybeans (-4,999 contracts) and Cocoa (-332 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee bets rebound to best level in 26-Weeks

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the rebound in the Coffee speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Coffee jumped this week by over +12,000 contracts after having fallen in the previous two weeks. Coffee’s speculative positioning is showing positive trends again with the net position back in bullish territory for each of the past ten weeks. This follows a streak of thirteen straight weeks of bearish Coffee positions that took place from November 8th to January 31st.

Coffee speculative bets had experienced a strong few years with positions rising strongly in the second half of 2020 and maintaining that momentum through 2021 and most of 2022. The end of 2022 saw the shine fall off the Coffee positions and the Coffee price as well with the Coffee futures price dropping over 35 percent from September to January.

The Coffee price hit a recent bottom in January and has been back on a bullish trend with prices gaining by more than 30 percent since that bottom compared to this week’s close. This week saw the Coffee futures price rise for a second straight week and with a 2-week total gain of over +10 percent.

The speculator’s net position, meanwhile, is now at the most bullish level of the past 26 weeks, dating back to October 11th of 2022.

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent), Live Cattle (84 percent) and Sugar (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week are all in Extreme-Bullish levels.  Soybean Meal (68 percent) and Soybeans (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (2 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and the Cotton (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (43.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (41.0 percent)
Sugar (83.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (78.7 percent)
Coffee (52.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybeans (59.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (61.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.7 percent)
Live Cattle (84.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (74.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.9 percent)
Cotton (6.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.6 percent)
Cocoa (98.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.7 percent)
Wheat (5.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (10.4 percent)

Sugar & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (12 percent) and Coffee (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (8 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Lean Hogs (-18 percent) and Live Cattle (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-25.2 percent)
Sugar (12.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.6 percent)
Coffee (8.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.3 percent)
Soybeans (8.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-22.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-30.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-22.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-32.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-14.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-20.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-19.6 percent)
Cotton (-3.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.8 percent)
Cocoa (5.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (18.1 percent)
Wheat (0.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-11.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 259,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 179,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 184,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 94,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent.