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US CPI: markets are overly confident of Fed pivot

By George Prior

Markets appear to be overly confident of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the inflation in the US is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

He says: “Inflation remains sticky. The Fed will not want to take the risk of pivoting on policy too soon by cutting rates.

“We believe that the data is still not strong enough for the central bank of the world’s largest economy to commit to reversing its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades – yet the markets seem read to confidently and heavily price-in rate cuts.

“Therefore, we could see a market rally as the year ends, but we think this could be overly optimistic.

“It can be expected that the Fed will leave the US interest rate unchanged at the 5.25%-5.5% range tomorrow (Wednesday) following the last monetary policy meeting of the year.

“But, so far, there’s no pivot in sight.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Inflation is still turning out to be stickier than expected. We expect that markets are pricing-in cuts too quickly. It will be next year before we really know.

“Certainly, some stock surges – such as those which are AI-orientated – are reasonable. Yet many others are getting ahead of themselves.”

The deVere CEO goes on to add that investors should diversify across asset classes to spread risk and capture opportunities arising from different market conditions; and to consider alternative investments that may provide returns less correlated with traditional asset classes.

He concludes: “Will the Fed really pivot with inflation stubborn? We think not.

“Yet markets seem to be getting carried away that the Fed and its peers of major central banks are ready to pivot.

“Significant opportunities remain, but investors should avoid complacency.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

12 Dec

AI’s impact on 3 key industries will pique investors’ interest in 2024

By George Prior

Investors should strategically position their portfolios in 2024 to capitalize on the opportunities offered by AI for certain sectors, says the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest financial advisory and asset management organizations.

deVere Group’s Nigel Green is speaking out after what has been a pivotal year in the AI space, characterized by major company moves from tech titans, pioneering initiatives, groundbreaking product launches, huge investments and strategic acquisitions.

He says: “AI stands at the forefront of technological innovation, poised to catalyze a profound transformation across industries. The potential for a significant boost in productivity is particularly evident in sectors such as financials, airlines, and healthcare.

“The financial industry is experiencing a paradigm shift with the integration of AI technologies. Machine learning algorithms, natural language processing, and predictive analytics are revolutionising processes, from risk management to customer service.

“AI-driven insights enable financial institutions to make data-driven decisions, enhance fraud detection, and streamline operations. Investors should consider seizing potential opportunities in this sector by looking at investments in fintech companies and financial institutions embracing AI to gain a competitive edge.

He continues: “AI-powered algorithms can analyze vast datasets and execute trades with speed and precision, providing a potential boost to investment returns – as such, investors could consider exposure to funds or companies specializing in algorithmic trading strategies.

“Also, as AI enhances risk assessment by analyzing complex patterns and identifying potential threats, investors may find opportunities in companies developing innovative risk management solutions for financial institutions.”

The aviation industry is ripe for AI-driven productivity enhancements, from optimizing flight routes to enhancing customer experience. AI’s potential impact on airlines extends to fuel efficiency, predictive maintenance, and personalised services.

Algorithms can analyse historical data, weather patterns, and other variables to optimize flight routes, reducing fuel consumption and operational costs. In addition, chatbots and virtual assistants powered by AI can streamline customer interactions, providing real-time support and personalized services.

“Savvy investors are likely to explore opportunities in airlines adopting AI for route optimization; and companies investing in AI-driven customer service solutions may present attractive investment opportunities.”

Moving onto healthcare, AI is becoming a transformative force, contributing to improved diagnostics, personalized treatment plans, and operational efficiencies. As the industry embraces AI-driven innovations, investors can position their portfolios to benefit from the growth potential.

AI algorithms can analyze medical images and data to enhance diagnostic accuracy. It can also accelerate the drug discovery process by studying biological data and identifying potential drug candidates.

“Companies developing AI-powered diagnostic tools and technologies may present investment opportunities in the healthcare sector, and investors may consider pharma companies leveraging AI for drug development.”

The deVere CEO says there are three main reasons why investors should position their portfolios accordingly.

First, innovation potential. “Industries integrating AI are likely to experience unprecedented innovation, creating opportunities for investors to capitalise on the growth of forward-thinking companies at the forefront of technological advancement.

Second, competitive advantage: “Companies embracing AI technologies gain a competitive edge by improving efficiency, reducing costs, and enhancing decision-making processes. Investors positioning their portfolios in such companies could benefit from their ability to outperform industry peers.”

Third long-term growth: “AI’s transformative impact is not a fleeting trend; it represents a long-term paradigm shift. As such, investors with a strategic focus on AI-driven sectors could position their portfolios for sustained growth over the coming years.

Nigel Green concludes: “Artificial Intelligence’s potential to boost productivity in industries like financials, airlines, and healthcare is a compelling narrative for investors.

“By strategically positioning portfolios to capture opportunities in companies at the forefront of AI adoption, investors can align themselves with the transformative forces shaping the future of these industries.”

About:

Opinions Stock Market News

10 Dec

Currency Speculators raised their British Pound bets into bullish level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (19,560 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (17,363 contracts), the Australian Dollar (13,538 contracts), the EuroFX (9,195 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,971 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (5,394 contracts), the Japanese Yen (4,281 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (3,159 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,437 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (857 contracts) also experiencing positive weeks.

The only currency (cryptocurrency) seeing a decline in speculator bets on the week was the Bitcoin with a dip by -505 contracts.

Currency Speculators raise their British Pound bets into bullish level

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the continued gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling. The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by almost +20,000 contracts, following up on last week’s gain by +18,203 contracts. The GBP speculator position has now risen in four out of the past five weeks and by a total of +32,036 contracts over that period.

This bullishness has brought the net speculator standing (currently at +11,665 contracts) back into an overall bullish level for the first time since September 26th.

The British Pound Sterling’s exchange rate with the US Dollar took a breather this week after gaining for three consecutive weeks and touching over the 1.2700 level. The Sterling’s exchange descended this week to the major psychological support level of 1.2500 but managed to bounce from that major support back up to 1.2551 to close out the week.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	40,451	36	19,944	58	-19,561	45	-383	5
EUR	756,615	65	152,360	85	-188,929	18	36,569	37
GBP	218,873	48	11,665	64	-11,983	39	318	59
JPY	267,482	87	-104,956	14	106,218	87	-1,262	51
CHF	60,356	96	-17,852	8	23,713	83	-5,861	40
CAD	197,791	59	-57,848	11	63,290	91	-5,442	11
AUD	195,569	54	-57,681	36	54,899	58	2,782	59
NZD	54,732	68	-16,450	13	15,215	79	1,235	65
MXN	257,053	58	73,456	84	-78,636	15	5,180	44
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	72,487	59	50,244	100	-52,089	1	1,845	52
Bitcoin	23,035	100	-2,250	33	1,387	0	863	33

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (100 percent) and the EuroFX (85 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (84 percent), British Pound (64 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (8 percent), the Canadian Dollar (11 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (58.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.8 percent)
EuroFX (85.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (63.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (50.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (36.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (84.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (79.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (99.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.1 percent)
Bitcoin (32.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (58 percent) and the EuroFX (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the Mexican Peso (22 percent) and the British Pound (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent), Canadian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.1 percent)
EuroFX (28.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (25.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-7.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-7.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (21.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (58.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-27.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-31.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.7	17.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	65.7	8.1
– Net Position:	19,944	-19,561	-383
– Gross Longs:	28,199	7,009	2,891
– Gross Shorts:	8,255	26,570	3,274
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	44.7	4.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	1.5	-14.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 152,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	53.5	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	78.4	6.5
– Net Position:	152,360	-188,929	36,569
– Gross Longs:	235,684	404,550	85,929
– Gross Shorts:	83,324	593,479	49,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.2	18.5	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.6	-30.3	22.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	49.9	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	55.3	12.9
– Net Position:	11,665	-11,983	318
– Gross Longs:	66,359	109,112	28,621
– Gross Shorts:	54,694	121,095	28,303
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	39.0	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.0	-22.0	17.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -104,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	68.8	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.8	29.1	16.1
– Net Position:	-104,956	106,218	-1,262
– Gross Longs:	28,266	184,156	41,899
– Gross Shorts:	133,222	77,938	43,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	86.9	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	0.7	8.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	69.9	21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	30.6	30.7
– Net Position:	-17,852	23,713	-5,861
– Gross Longs:	3,732	42,164	12,655
– Gross Shorts:	21,584	18,451	18,516
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	82.5	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	-6.2	22.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	71.4	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	39.4	17.4
– Net Position:	-57,848	63,290	-5,442
– Gross Longs:	19,753	141,259	29,036
– Gross Shorts:	77,601	77,969	34,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	91.0	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	6.0	-1.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	63.6	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	35.5	12.2
– Net Position:	-57,681	54,899	2,782
– Gross Longs:	32,886	124,388	26,639
– Gross Shorts:	90,567	69,489	23,857
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.0	58.4	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.3	-33.1	45.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -16,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	66.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	38.6	6.7
– Net Position:	-16,450	15,215	1,235
– Gross Longs:	11,796	36,358	4,902
– Gross Shorts:	28,246	21,143	3,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	79.4	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	-1.9	52.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	51.8	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	82.4	0.7
– Net Position:	73,456	-78,636	5,180
– Gross Longs:	108,921	133,063	6,872
– Gross Shorts:	35,465	211,699	1,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.0	14.5	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.7	-22.8	18.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.0	21.2	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.7	93.1	2.2
– Net Position:	50,244	-52,089	1,845
– Gross Longs:	53,674	15,368	3,437
– Gross Shorts:	3,430	67,457	1,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	15.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.7	0.6	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	58.5	-56.9	1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.7	8.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.5	2.2	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,250	1,387	863
– Gross Longs:	17,907	1,895	1,641
– Gross Shorts:	20,157	508	778
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	100.0	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.0	46.4	-0.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

09 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Brazil Real & 2-Year Bond lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is currently at a 99.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 58.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 50,244 net contracts this week with a gain of 17,363 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 99.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 13.5 this week. The speculator position registered 511,780 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -15,457 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 20.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -167 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 66 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 45.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 86,967 net contracts this week with a boost of 135,716 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nikkei 225 Yen

The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator level sits at a 88.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 31.6 this week.

The speculator position was 17,459 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,476,016 net contracts this week with a drop of -187,185 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The speculator position was -267,855 net contracts this week with a downfall of -9,960 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 1.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -11,252 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,081 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 1.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was 20,298 net contracts this week with a decline by -30,399 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.9 this week. The speculator position was -1,429,427 net contracts this week with a drop by -30,927 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Dec

Week Ahead: US dollar set for explosive week?

By ForexTime

Big week ahead for USD due to CPI and Fed decision

Fed set to hold rates but economic projections in focus

USDInd under pressure despite recent rebound

Key levels of interest at 105.30, 104.26 & 102.45

Breakout/down on the horizon?

Even as the clock ticks down to the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday 8th December), traders are mindful of the flurry of high-risk events in the week ahead.

Some of the world’s largest central banks are set to make their final rate decisions for 2023 while top-tier economic data from major economies will be in focus. Given how this will be topped off with ‘Triple witching day’ for US markets, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts for a wild ride!

Monday, 11th December

JPY: Japan M2 money stock
NZD: New Zealand home sales
GBP: CBI publishes latest economic forecast

Tuesday, 12th December

AUD: Australia consumer confidence
EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations
JPY: Japan PPI
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
USD: US CPI report

Wednesday, 13th December

NZD: New Zealand food prices
EUR: Eurozone industrial production
GBP: UK industrial production
USD: Fed rate decision, US PPI

Thursday, 14th December

JPY: Japan machinery orders, industrial production
CHF: SNB rate decision
EUR: ECB rate decision
GBP: BOE rate decision
USD: US initial jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories

Friday, 15th December

CNH: China retail sales, industrial production, jobless rate
EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P Global PMI’s
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
USD: US industrial production, Empire manufacturing
SPX500: ‘Triple witching day’ for US markets

The scheduled data releases and events may present fresh opportunities across markets. However, our focus falls on the USD Index due to the US CPI report and Fed rate decision.

The USD Index tracks how the dollar is performing against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

The USD Index could be gearing up for a significant move. Here are 3 reasons why:

US November CPI report

The November US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Tuesday will be the final data point before the Fed rate decision.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (November 2023 vs. November 2022) to cool 3.1% from 3.2% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 4.0%.
CPI month-on-month (November 2023 vs October 2023) to remain unchanged at 0%
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.2% in the prior month.

Headline inflation is expected to have cooled further thanks to falling energy prices, while the annual core inflation unchanged at 4.0% – its lowest level in over two years. Further evidence of cooling prices may bolster speculation around the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2024.

A softer-than-expected US CPI report has the potential to drag the USDInd lower.
Should the CPI report beat market forecasts, the USDInd could push higher ahead of the Fed decision.

Fed rate decision

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its final policy meeting for 2023.

However, the main attraction will be the updated economic projections and dot plot which were last provided on September 20th. Together with Jerome Powell’s post meeting conference may help investors gauge what to expect from the Fed in 2024.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 64% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut by March 2024.

The USDInd could find itself under pressure if the Fed strikes a dovish and signals that rate cuts are on the cards from 2024.
Should the central bank push back on rate cut bets and signal that rates will remain higher for longer, this may give the USDInd a boost.

Technical forces

Despite pushing back above the 200-day SMA in recent days, the USDInd remains under pressure on the daily charts. Prices are respecting a bearish channel and trading below the 50 and 100-day SMA.

Should the USDInd slip back below the 200-day SMA, this may open the doors towards 102.45 and 101.80, respectively.
A solid breakout and daily close above 104.26 could push prices toward the 50-day SMA at 105.30 and 106.00, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

06 Dec

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: EURUSD closes below 200-day SMA

By ForexTime

EURUSD closes below 200-day SMA

Bearish momentum building on D1 chart

Data heavy week could rock currency pair

Key levels of interest at 1.0850, 1.0770 and 1.0700

The EURUSD entered standby mode on Wednesday after closing below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in three months.

Euro bears seem to be making a return after dragging prices from a multi-month high at 1.1016 with the recent breakdown below the 1.0830 level supporting the bearish case.

Zooming out on the weekly charts, the negative momentum could pick up after bulls failed to conquer the 1.0960 level which has acted as significant resistance in the past.

On the monthly charts, it’s still the same old story for the EURUSD with major support at 1.0500 and resistance at 1.1060.

The real action is back on the daily charts, especially after the daily close below 1.0830. Although prices are no longer trading within the bullish channel, some support can be seen around the 100-day SMA.

A potential breakout opportunity could be on the horizon with the right fundamental spark. Given how this is a data-heavy week for both Europe and the United States, this could translate to increased volatility on the EURUSD – especially on Friday when the NFP is released.

Should prices secure a strong daily close below 1.0770, this could open a path towards the 50-day SMA at 1.0700 and 1.0550.
A move back above the 200-day that pushes prices beyond 1.0850 could spark a move toward 1.0950 and 1.1030, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

05 Dec

Investors urged to be vigilant to possibility of surging oil prices

By George Prior

Oil prices are increasingly likely to rise towards the end of the year and into 2024, which could hit your investment portfolio, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

deVere Group’s chief executive, Nigel Green, is speaking out after Saudi Arabia says that oil production cuts can “absolutely” continue past the first quarter of 2024 if necessary, and amid growing tensions in the Red Sea.

He comments: “The OPEC+ reductions to oil production announced last week of more than 2 million barrels a day – half of which come from Saudi Arabi – could run past the first quarter, according to the country’s Energy Minister.

“Although the cuts have had little impact on prices so far, it could be reasonably expected that as the cuts continue, they will begin to fuel price rises – especially as there’s no obvious sign that the Saudis are in a rush to remove the reductions to the oil they send to the rest of the world.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Another factor is the potential disruption to oil supplies, with reports saying that attacks on commercial shipping routes in the Red Sea are on the rise.

“The oil market has to date seemingly brushed off the increasing fears of soaring disruption, but the Red Sea is critical – all oil from the Middle East to Europe goes through it – and there are heightening issues in the region.”

The Pentagon on Sunday said a US warship and three commercial vessels had come under attack off the coast of Yemen.

This is driving concerns that Houthi rebels and their backers in Iran were intensifying their agenda as a result of the war in Gaza.

As a critical component of industrial production, transportation, and energy generation, oil plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets.

“Rising oil prices often lead to increased production costs across various industries. As businesses face higher expenses for transportation and raw materials, these costs are frequently passed on to consumers, contributing to inflationary pressures,” notes Nigel Green.

“Also, oil is priced in US dollars, and as oil prices rise, countries that are net importers of oil experience an increase in their trade deficits.

“This can lead to depreciation in the value of their currencies, affecting foreign exchange markets. Investors holding assets denominated in these currencies could experience declines in the value of their portfolios.

“Companies operating in energy-intensive sectors, such as transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture, may witness a decline in profitability as input costs rise. This, in turn, affects corporate earnings and can lead to changes in stock prices.”

He concludes: “We see a growing likelihood for oil prices to rise over the next six months due to the possibility of the extension of production cuts and increasing geopolitical tensions.

“The intricate relationship between oil and global financial markets underscores the need for investors to stay vigilant and possibly adapt their strategies and portfolios accordingly.”

About:

Energy Opinions

03 Dec

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (18,203 contracts) with the EuroFX (13,511 contracts) also rising by more than 10,000 contracts followed by the Australian Dollar (6,751 contracts), Mexican Peso (6,554 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (2,198 contracts).

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-3,783 contracts), US Dollar Index (-1,610 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,001 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-2,755 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,295 contracts) and Bitcoin (-869 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is this week’s boost in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling and the Euro. Both of these currencies saw speculator positions rise by over +10,000 weekly contracts. Helping out both the Sterling and the Euro positioning has been a dent in the outlook for the US Dollar.

The US inflation numbers continue to moderate and market watchers are expecting the US Federal Reserve to hold their interest rates steady. According to the Fed Watch tool, expectations are currently 98 percent for a rate hold at the December meeting and when looking out over the next year, investors are starting to expect rate decreases in 2024.

The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by over +18,000 contracts and has gained in three out of the past four weeks. The GBP speculative level has now improved to the least bearish level of the past eight weeks at a total of -7,895 contracts. The GBPUSD exchange rate has been following suit with a price close this week at the highest level since August. The GBPUSD has bounced off the 1.2100 major support in recent months and has accelerated higher (+5% in November) with a close over the 1.2700 to end the week.

The Euro speculator position, meanwhile, jumped by over +13,000 contracts this week as well and has now risen for seven consecutive weeks. The Euro position has gained by a total of +67,633 contracts over this past 7-week period to reach a 13-week high point at +143,165 contracts. The Euro (EURUSD) exchange rate to the US Dollar has also had a strong couple of months with the EURUSD currency pair bouncing off the 1.5500 major support to challenge the 1.1000 level. This week the EURUSD was rejected at the 1.1000 level and closed at 1.0879.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	39,359	33	19,087	57	-18,292	47	-795	0
EUR	727,138	48	143,165	81	-176,315	23	33,150	32
GBP	217,372	47	-7,895	50	10,064	51	-2,169	54
JPY	260,781	82	-109,237	12	103,692	86	5,545	65
CHF	60,479	96	-20,289	1	26,691	88	-6,402	38
CAD	200,864	61	-63,242	6	67,537	94	-4,295	13
AUD	197,053	55	-71,219	24	73,789	73	-2,570	46
NZD	51,460	60	-19,609	4	20,208	91	-599	43
MXN	247,503	54	65,485	79	-71,441	19	5,956	49
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	108,749	100	32,881	77	-29,230	29	-3,651	0
Bitcoin	23,027	100	-1,745	40	792	0	953	35

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (81 percent) and the Mexican Peso (79 percent) were leading the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (77 percent), US Dollar Index (57 percent) and the British Pound (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (1 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent), the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (59.5 percent)
EuroFX (81.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (50.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (79.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (75.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (77.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.4 percent)
Bitcoin (40.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (53.2 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (38 percent) and the EuroFX (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (13 percent), the Australian Dollar (9 percent) and the British Pound (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-31 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-3.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (8.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-35.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (12.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (38.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-31.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-30.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	17.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	63.6	9.0
– Net Position:	19,087	-18,292	-795
– Gross Longs:	28,798	6,746	2,735
– Gross Shorts:	9,711	25,038	3,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	46.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	3.9	-28.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 143,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	53.5	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	77.7	6.8
– Net Position:	143,165	-176,315	33,150
– Gross Longs:	233,454	388,784	82,613
– Gross Shorts:	90,289	565,099	49,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	23.2	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-28.0	22.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	54.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	49.8	13.0
– Net Position:	-7,895	10,064	-2,169
– Gross Longs:	61,296	118,253	26,067
– Gross Shorts:	69,191	108,189	28,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	51.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.5	12.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -109,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	69.1	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.6	29.3	14.9
– Net Position:	-109,237	103,692	5,545
– Gross Longs:	30,461	180,134	44,382
– Gross Shorts:	139,698	76,442	38,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	85.7	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	-4.2	31.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	73.0	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	28.9	30.0
– Net Position:	-20,289	26,691	-6,402
– Gross Longs:	4,300	44,145	11,754
– Gross Shorts:	24,589	17,454	18,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	87.9	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	-6.6	24.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	71.4	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	37.8	17.3
– Net Position:	-63,242	67,537	-4,295
– Gross Longs:	18,991	143,464	30,505
– Gross Shorts:	82,233	75,927	34,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.0	93.7	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	10.9	-6.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -71,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	66.6	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	29.1	13.7
– Net Position:	-71,219	73,789	-2,570
– Gross Longs:	29,203	131,213	24,361
– Gross Shorts:	100,422	57,424	26,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.6	72.7	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-17.6	33.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -19,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	71.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.7	32.4	8.4
– Net Position:	-19,609	20,208	-599
– Gross Longs:	10,104	36,898	3,703
– Gross Shorts:	29,713	16,690	4,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	90.7	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.7	28.5	13.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	53.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	82.0	0.8
– Net Position:	65,485	-71,441	5,956
– Gross Longs:	105,838	131,543	7,840
– Gross Shorts:	40,353	202,984	1,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	18.8	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.5	20.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	45.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	72.5	7.0
– Net Position:	32,881	-29,230	-3,651
– Gross Longs:	52,260	49,664	3,934
– Gross Shorts:	19,379	78,894	7,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.1	29.4	0.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.1	-30.4	-48.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.4	5.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	90.0	2.4	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,745	792	953
– Gross Longs:	18,979	1,344	1,688
– Gross Shorts:	20,724	552	735
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	90.7	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	48.6	6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

02 Dec

Speculator Extremes: SOFR-3M, Steel, Corn & Wheat lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 28th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 18.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 527,237 net contracts this week with a rise of 27,337 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is now at a 98.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 21.8 this week. The speculator position registered -233 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 682 contracts in speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 90.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 37,349 net contracts this week with a boost of 7,447 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is at a 83.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 0.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 71,646 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,193 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 81.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.9 this week.

The speculator position was -6,452 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -94 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -157,148 net contracts this week with a drop of -33,142 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.4 this week. The speculator position was -97,204 net contracts this week with a decline of -19,673 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -48.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,486 net contracts this week with a slide of -616 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.1 this week. The speculator position was -20,289 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,295 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The speculator position was -257,895 net contracts this week with a decrease of -23,489 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

01 Dec

Week Ahead: SPX500_m poised for a ‘Santa Rally’?

By ForexTime

S&P 500 gains 8.9% in November

December historically good month for stocks

Keep eye on US jobs report and ‘Santa Rally’ chatter

Prices trending higher but RSI signals overbought

Can SPX500_m bulls maintain hunger for gains?

Christmas may have come early for investors after the S&P 500 ended November 8.9% higher!

This was not only its biggest monthly gain since July 2022 but also its fourth-best month in 10 years.

As we enter December, the stock index could see heightened volatility thanks to key US economic data and growing chatter about a ‘Santa Claus Rally’.

Monday, 4th December

USD: US factory orders, durable goods

Tuesday, 5th December

CNH: China Caixin services PMI
AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision
EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI
JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI
USD: US ISM Services, Job openings

Wednesday, 6th December

AUD: Australia GDP
CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Germany factory orders
GBP: Bank of England biannual stability report
USD: US trade

Thursday, 7th December

CNH: China trade, forex reserves
AUD: Australia trade balance
EUR: Eurozone GDP, Germany industrial production
USD: US initial jobless claims

Friday, 8th December

JPY: Japan household spending, GDP
EUR: Germany CPI
USD: US jobs report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

US equity bulls remain supported by cooling inflation, positive US economic data, and growing speculation around the Fed cutting interest rates in 2024. This is reflected in the SPX500_m which has created consistently higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe.

Note: SPX500_m tracks the S&P 500 index (the benchmark used to measure the stock performance of the 500 largest listed US companies)

With exactly one month left until the end of 2023, the question is whether SPX500_m bulls can maintain their hunger for gains.

Here are 3 factors to keep an eye on in the week ahead:

‘Santa Rally’ chatter

With Christmas just around the corner, discussion around a potential ‘Santa Clause Rally’ is likely to be widely discussed across the board.

This financial phenomenon is where stocks generally rise in the last week of December and the first two trading days of the new year.

It is not fully clear whether it’s purely psychological or triggered by some underlying financial forces, but history has shown that this is a recurring seasonal pattern.

Indeed, December has been a historically positive month for the S&P500 which has produced positive returns 75% of the time since 1994.

Markets seem to be in good spirits with chatter about a ‘Santa Rally’ possibly influencing the index over the next few weeks.

US November jobs report

On the data front, the US non-farm payrolls could offer fresh clues about what action the Federal Reserve will take beyond 2023.

The US economy is expected to have created 200,000 jobs in November, a noticeable pickup from the 150,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.9% while average hourly earnings are expected to tick lower to 4.0% year-on-year.

Given how tech stocks account for roughly 29% of the S&P 500 weighting, the incoming jobs report could spark volatility.

Note: Tech stocks influenced by interest rates because their value is based on earnings forecasted in the future.

Traders are currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 25-basis point cut by March 2024, with a cut by May 2024 fully priced, according to Fed Funds futures.

The SPX500_m is likely to trade lower if the US jobs report meets or exceeds forecasts and investors re-evaluate when the Fed will cut rates in 2024.
Should the US jobs report market expectations, this could reinforce bets around the Fed cutting rates – supporting the SPX500_m as a result.

Technical forces

The SPX500_m remains in a bullish channel on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. Although the path of least resistance points north, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 70 – suggesting that prices are heavily overbought. A technical rebound could be a possibility before bulls return to the driving seat.

The support at 4525 could provide bulls the foundation to attack the 2023 high at 4611 and 4660 – a level not seen since January 2022.
Should prices slip back under 4525, this may open a path back towards 4500 and 4470, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Opinions – Page 66

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Brazilian Real

Currency Speculators raise their British Pound bets into bullish level

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Steel

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Nikkei 225 Yen

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Palladium

Soybeans

5-Year Bond

Even as the clock ticks down to the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday 8th December), traders are mindful of the flurry of high-risk events in the week ahead.

US November CPI report

Fed rate decision

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 64% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut by March 2024.

Technical forces

The EURUSD entered standby mode on Wednesday after closing below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in three months.

Should prices secure a strong daily close below 1.0770, this could open a path towards the 50-day SMA at 1.0700 and 1.0550.

A move back above the 200-day that pushes prices beyond 1.0850 could spark a move toward 1.0950 and 1.1030, respectively.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Steel