Archive for Opinions – Page 62

Speculator Extremes: DowJones & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini


The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 79.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 24,079 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,537 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 44.1 this week. The speculator position registered 111,283 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 30,024 contracts in speculator bets.


Russell 2000 Mini


The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 54.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 21,012 net contracts this week with a rise of 21,933 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 8.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 685,363 net contracts this week with a boost of 179,262 contracts in the speculator bets.


Nasdaq-Mini


The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 45.4 this week.

The speculator position was 36,776 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,291 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -30.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,049 net contracts this week with a drop of -16,121 contracts in the speculator bets.


Corn


The Corn speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.2 this week. The speculator position was -173,033 net contracts this week with a decrease of -26,305 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Soybean Meal


The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -74.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,490 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -29,428 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybean Oil


The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 2.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.5 this week. The speculator position was -29,208 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,279 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Live Cattle


Finally, the Live Cattle speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.8 this week. The speculator position was 23,367 net contracts this week with a dip of -7,286 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Week Ahead: EURUSD on brink of major breakout?

By ForexTime 

  • EURUSD braces for heavy event week
  • Keep eye on top-tier EU + US data
  • Speeches from central bank officials also in focus
  • Major breakout could be on horizon
  • First points of interest at 1.10 and 1.09

The EURUSD could be pumped with fresh life next week due to key economic data, speeches from central bank officials and threat of a partial US government shutdown.

Monday, 15th January

  • CNH: China medium-term lending facility rate
  • CAD: Canada existing home sales
  • EUR: Eurozone industrial production, Germany 2023 GDP report
  • World Economic Forum in Davos
  • US markets closed – Martin Luther King Jr. holiday

Tuesday, 16th January

  • EUR: Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations
  • GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
  • CAD: Canada CPI, housing starts
  • USD: US Empire Manufacturing, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speech
  • WSt30_m: Goldman Sachs earnings

Wednesday, 17th January

  • CNH: China GDP, retail sales and industrial production
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
  • GBP: UK CPI
  • USD: US retail sales, industrial production, Fed Beige book, New York Fed President John Williams speech

Thursday, 18th January

  • AUD: Australia unemployment
  • NZD: New Zealand food prices
  • EUR: ECB minutes, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
  • JPY: Japan core machine orders, industrial production
  • USD: US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Friday, 19th January

  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • JPY: Japan CPI, tertiary index
  • EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
  • USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
  • Deadline for avoiding partial US government shutdown

It has felt like the same old story for the EURUSD since the start of the new year with prices swinging within a range on the daily charts.

Given the exceptional list of major risk events over the coming week, a significant move could be around the corner…

Here are 4 factors to keep an eye on:

  1. EU data dump + ECB President speech

It’s a week packed with crucial European economic reports that may influence expectations around when the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates this year.

Data from Germany, Europe’s largest economy will be under the spotlight with much focus on the 2023 growth figures, CPI and ZEW survey expectations.  This will be complemented by the ECB meeting minutes for December’s meeting which will be scrutinized for fresh clues on the ECB’s next move. But the main course will be Christine Lagarde’s remarks during the World Economic Forum.

Traders are currently pricing in a 40% probability of a 25-basis point ECB rate cut by March 2024, with a move fully priced in for April.

  • The euro may weaken if overall economic data disappoints and Lagarde strikes a dovish tone in Davos – sending the EURUSD lower as a result.
  • Should overall economic data beat forecasts and Lagarde pushes back against rate cut bets, the euro could rise – elevating the EURUSD.
  1. Key US data + Fed speeches

A barrage of top-tier US economic data has the potential to rock the dollar, impacting the EURUSD as a result.

Investors will be paying close attention to the latest retail sales figures, manufacturing data and consumer sentiment to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches from a host of Fed officials will be added to the mix, coupled with the beige book which could impact speculation around when US rates will be cut this year.

The latest hotter than expected US inflation report has slightly dented expectations around when the Fed will cut rates, but traders still see a 76% probability of a cut in March.

  • Stronger-than-expected data and hawkish remarks by Fed officials may boost the dollar as rate cut bets decline. This may pull the EURUSD lower.
  • Should overall US economic data disappoint, and Fed officials sound dovish, the dollar may weaken – pushing the EURUSD higher.
  1. Possible partial government shutdown

The United States is facing a partial government shutdown deadline set to expire on January 19th.

Sentiment towards the US economy could take a hit, especially if a full shutdown happens beyond the February 2nd deadline. Given how this development is likely to influence the USD, its impact will most likely be seen on the EURUSD.

  1. Technical forces

The EURUSD is respecting a bullish channel on the daily timeframe with a “golden cross” technical pattern in play. However, prices remain trapped within a 100-pip range with minor support at 1.1000 and resistance at 1.0900.

  • A strong breakout and daily close above 1.1000 could trigger a move towards the monthly resistance around 1.1100 and 1.1230 – a level not seen since mid-July 2023.
  • Should prices slip back below 1.0900, this could open a path back toward the 200-day SMA at 1.0840 and 1.0756.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

From besting Tetris AI to epic speedruns – inside gaming’s most thrilling feats

By James Dawes, Macalester College 

After 13-year-old Willis Gibson became the first human to beat the original Nintendo version of Tetris, he dedicated his special win to his father, who passed away in December 2023.

The Oklahoma teen beat the game by defeating level after level until he reached the “kill screen” – that is, the moment when the Tetris artificial intelligence taps out in exhaustion, stopping play because its designers never wrote the code to advance further. Before Gibson, the only other player to overcome the game’s AI was another AI.

For any parent who has despaired over their children sinking countless hours into video games, Gibson’s victory over the cruel geometry of Tetris stands as a bracing corrective.

Despite the stereotypes, most gamers are anything but lazy. And they’re anything but mindless.

The world’s top players can sometimes serve as reminders of the best in us, with memorable achievements that range from the heroic to the inscrutably weird.

The perfect run

Speedrunning” is a popular gaming subculture in which players meticulously optimize routes and exploit glitches to complete, in a matter of minutes, games that normally take hours, from the tightly constrained, run-and-gun action game Cuphead to the sprawling role-playing epic Baldur’s Gate 3.

In top-level competition, speedrunners strive to match the time of what’s referred to as a “TAS,” or “tool-assisted speed run.” To figure out the TAS time, players use game emulators to choreograph a theoretically perfect playthrough, advancing the game one frame at a time to determine the fastest possible time.

Success requires punishing precision, flawless execution and years of training.

The major speedrunning milestones are, like Olympic races, marked by mere fractions of a second. The urge to speedrun likely sprouts from an innate human longing for perfection – and a uniquely 21st century compulsion to best the robots.

A Twitch streamer who goes by the username Niftski is currently the human who has come closest to achieving this androidlike perfection. His 4-minute, 54.631-second world-record speedrun of Super Mario Bros. – achieved in September 2023 – is just 0.35 seconds shy of a flawless TAS.

Watching Niftski’s now-famous run is a dissonant experience. Goofy, retro, 8-bit Mario jumps imperturbably over goombas and koopa troopas with the iconic, cheerful “boink” sound of his hop.

Meanwhile, Niftski pants as his anxiety builds, his heart rate – tracked on screen during the livestream – peaking at 188 beats per minute.

When Mario bounces over the final big turtle at the finish line – “boink” – Niftski erupts into screams of shock and repeated cries of “Oh my God!”

He hyperventilates, struggles for oxygen and finally sobs from exhaustion and joy.

Twitch streamer Niftski’s record speedrun of Super Mario Bros. missed perfection by 0.35 seconds.

The largest world and its longest pig ride

This list couldn’t be complete without an achievement from Minecraft, the revolutionary video game that has become the second-best-selling title in history, with over 300 million copies sold – second only to Tetris’ 520 million units.

Minecraft populates the video game libraries of grade-schoolers and has been used as an educational tool in university classrooms. Even the British Museum has held an exhibition devoted to the game.

Minecraft is known as a sandbox game, which means that gamers can create and explore their own virtual worlds, limited only by their imagination and a few simple tools and resources – like buckets and sand, or, in the case of Minecraft, pickaxes and stone.

So what can you do in the Minecraft playground?

Well, you can ride on a pig. The Guinness Book of World Records marks the farthest distance at 414 miles. Or you can collect sunflowers. The world record for that is 89 in one minute. Or you can dig a tunnel – but you’ll need to make it 100,001 blocks long to edge out the current record.

My personal favorite is a collective, ongoing effort: a sprawling, global collaboration to recreate the world on a 1:1 scale using Minecraft blocks, with blocks counting as one cubic meter.

At their best, sandbox games like Minecraft can bring people closer to the joyful and healthily pointless play of childhood – a restorative escape from the anxious, utility-driven planning that dominates so much of adulthood.

Popular YouTuber MrBeast contributes to ‘Build the Earth’ by constructing a Minecraft replica of Raleigh, N.C.

The galaxy’s greatest collaboration

The Halo 3 gaming community participated in a bloodier version of the collective effort of Minecraft players.

The game, which pits humans against an alien alliance known as the Covenant, was released in 2007 to much fanfare.

Whether they were playing the single-player campaign mode or the online multiplayer mode, gamers around the world started seeing themselves as imaginary participants in a global cause to save humanity – in what came to be known as the “Great War.”

They organized round-the-clock campaign shifts, while sharing strategies in nearly 6,000 Halo wiki articles and 21 million online discussion posts.

Halo developer Bungie started tracking total alien deaths by all players, with the 10 billion milestone reached in April 2009.

Game designer Jane McGonigal recalls with awe the community effort that went into that Great War, citing it as a transcendent example of the fundamental human desire to work together and to become a part of something bigger than the self.

Bungie maintained a collective history of the Great War in the form of “personal service records” that memorialized each player’s contributions – medals, battle statistics, campaign maps and more.

The archive beggars comprehension: According to Bungie, its servers handled 1.4 petabytes of data requests by players in one nine-month stretch. McGonigal notes, by way of comparison, that everything ever written by humans in all of recorded history amounts to 50 petabytes of data.

Gamification versus gameful design

If you’re mystified by the behavior of these gamers, you’re not alone.

Over the past decade, researchers across a range of fields have marveled at the dedication of gamers like Gibson and Niftski, who commit themselves without complaint to what some might see as punishing, pointless and physically grueling labor.

How could this level of dedication be applied to more “productive” endeavors, they wondered, like education, taxes or exercise?

From this research, an industry centered on the “gamification” of work, life and learning emerged. It giddily promised to change people’s behaviors through the use of extrinsic motivators borrowed from the gaming community: badges, achievements, community scorekeeping.

The concept caught fire, spreading everywhere from early childhood education to the fast-food industry.

Many game designers have reacted to this trend like Robert Oppenheimer at the close of the eponymous movie – aghast that their beautiful work was used, for instance, to pressure Disneyland Resort laborers to load laundry and press linens at anxiously hectic speeds.

Arguing that the gamification trend misses entirely the magic of gaming, game designers have instead started promoting the concept of “gameful design.” Where gamification focuses on useful outcomes, gameful design focuses on fulfilling experiences.

Gameful design prioritizes intrinsic motivation over extrinsic incentives. It embraces design elements that promote social connection, creativity, a sense of autonomy – and, ultimately, the sheer joy of mastery.

When I think of Niftski’s meltdown after his record speedrun – and Gibson’s, who also began hyperventilating in shock and almost passed out – I think of my own children.

I wish for them such moments of ecstatic, prideful accomplishment in a world that sometimes seems starved of joy.The Conversation

About the Author:

James Dawes, Professor of English, Macalester College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Oil waits for fundamental spark

By ForexTime

  • Brent bulls and bears in tug of war
  • Prices trapped in range on D1 charts
  • Incoming EIA data could trigger volatility
  • Technical indicators favour bears
  • Key levels of interest at $79 and $75.50

It has been a choppy affair for oil prices thanks to a combination of fundamental forces.

Earlier in the week, oil bears were in power after Riyadh lowered its official selling prices for oil exports over the weekend. Only for bulls to return amid Middle East supply concerns, a Libyan supply outage, more attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and an industry report showing a bigger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories.

Prices are currently trapped within a range on the daily charts with support at $75.50 and resistance at $79.00.

The global commodity could be injected with fresh volatility later today due to the incoming Energy Information Agency (EIA) report. A build or drawdown in crude inventories has the potential to trigger a breakout/down opportunity in oil prices.

Looking at the technical picture, the indicators favour more downside with prices respecting a bearish channel.

Zooming out to the weekly charts, we see a similar bearish picture. However, strong support can be found at the 200-week SMA.

Taking a quick look at the monthly charts, prices are approaching a significant support at $71.50. A solid monthly close below this level could signal further downside.

Redirecting our attention back to the daily timeframe, bears need to secure a solid daily close below $75.50 to regain control.

  • Sustained weakness below $75.50 could encourage a decline back towards $72.50.

  • Should $75.50 prove to be reliable support, that may push prices back towards $79.00 and $80.70.


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ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

2023’s billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth’s hottest year on record

By Shuang-Ye Wu, University of Dayton 

National weather analysts released their 2023 billion-dollar disasters list on Jan. 9, just as 2024 was getting off to a ferocious start. A blizzard was sweeping across across the Plains and Midwest, and the South and East faced flood risks from extreme downpours.

The U.S. set an unwelcome record for weather and climate disasters in 2023, with 28 disasters that exceeded more than US$1 billion in damage each.

While it wasn’t the most expensive year overall – the costliest years included multiple hurricane strikes – it had the highest number of billion-dollar storms, floods, droughts and fires of any year since counting began in 1980, with six more than any other year, accounting for inflation.

A map shows where disasters that did more than $1 billion in damage hit the United States.
2023’s billion-dollar disasters. Click the image to expand.
NOAA

The year’s most expensive disaster started with an unprecedented heat wave that sat over Texas for weeks over the summer and then spread into the South and Midwest, helping fuel a destructive drought. The extreme heat and lack of rain dried up fields, forced ranchers to sell off livestock and restricted commerce on the Mississippi River, causing about US$14.5 billion in damage, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s conservative estimates.

Extreme dryness in Hawaii contributed to another multi-billion-dollar disaster as it fueled devastating wildfires that destroyed Lahaina, Hawaii, in August.

Other billion-dollar disasters included Hurricane Idalia, which hit Florida in August; floods in the Northeast and California; and nearly two dozen other severe storms across the country. States in a swath from Texas to Ohio were hit by multiple billion-dollar storms.

El Niño played a role in some of these disasters, but at the root of the world’s increasingly frequent extreme heat and weather is global warming. The year 2023 was the hottest on record globally and the fifth warmest in the U.S.

I am an atmospheric scientist who studies the changing climate. Here’s a quick look at what global warming has to do with wildfires, storms and other weather and climate disasters.

Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires

When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they act like a thermal blanket that warms the planet.

These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The energy imbalance at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.

How the greenhouse effect functions.

The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as large parts of the country saw in 2023.

Phoenix went 30 days with daily high temperatures at 110 F (43.3 C) or higher and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).

Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, global warming has raised the baseline, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.

Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year.
The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.
U.S. Global Change Research Program

That heat also fuels wildfires.

Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which creates favorable conditions for wildfires. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze.

How global warming fuels extreme storms

As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.

When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called latent heat, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems. When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel stronger, longer-lasting storms.

Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a critical level of around 80 F (27 C).

With 90% of the excess heat from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the global sea surface temperature, including record-breaking levels in 2023.

A chart of daily global average ocean temperatures since 1981 shows 2023 heat far above any other year starting in mid-March and staying there through the year.
Global ocean heat in 2023 was at its highest in over four decades of records.
ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, CC BY

Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to stronger hurricanes, longer hurricane seasons and the faster intensification of tropical storms.

Cold snaps have global warming connections, too

It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also contribute to cold snaps in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.

The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. These patterns are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.

As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up more than twice as fast as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.

In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.

This article, originally published Dec. 19, 2023, was updated Jan. 9, 2024, with NOAA’s disasters list.The Conversation

About the Author:

Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of Dayton

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Trade of The Week: Bitcoin ETF awaits SEC approval

By ForexTime 

  • Clock ticks down to Bitcoin ETF deadline
  • Potential SEC approval will mark historic moment
  • Watch out for other possible outcomes
  • Bitcoin could see heightened levels of volatility
  • Will Bitcoin rally or slump?

Bitcoin is the talk of the town this week, as the clock ticks down to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) 10th January critical deadline to vote on Bitcoin ETF applications.

The cryptocurrency entered the new year in a volatile and choppy fashion amid growing speculation over regulators giving the green light. Indeed, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would mark a historic moment for the digital asset – representing potential inflows of new investors.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, Bitcoin has entered standby mode on the daily charts with prices trading marginally below $44.5k as of writing.

Whatever decision the SEC takes on Wednesday, it is likely to have a lasting impact on Bitcoin.

In the meantime, here are 3 potential outcomes to watch out for:

  1. SEC approves Bitcoin ETF applications

The SEC approves the first bitcoin ETF in the United States, marking a watershed moment after 10 years of failed applications.

A spot bitcoin ETF is a big deal and provides investors with easier and supposedly more reliable access to the world’s largest cryptocurrency without having to purchase it directly.

  • This outcome could trigger an aggressive appreciation in Bitcoin prices due to the prospects of fresh inflows from retail and institutional investors.
  • However, given how markets were expecting the ETF approval – this could result in a “sell the news” type of reaction that drags prices lower before investor inflows push prices higher down the road.
  1. SEC delays Bitcoin ETF applications 

It is worth keeping in mind that the SEC sued Coinbase back in June for operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker and clearing agency.

Given how Coinbase is the largest US crypto exchange and the only one that’s a public company, it stands to greatly benefit from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval as the middleman.

  • Should this situation lead to possible delays in the ETF approval process, bitcoin prices could slip amid the uncertainty.
  1. SEC rejects all Bitcoin ETF applications.

The SEC recently tweeted “NO GO to FOMO”, essentially warning about the fear of missing out behavior for cryptocurrencies and other trending investments.

  • While the SEC rejecting the ETF applications seems to be the most unlikely outcome for markets, this could send bitcoin plummeting if it becomes reality.

Technical outlook:

Bitcoin is turning bullish on the weekly charts with prices respecting a weekly bullish channel.

Prices have entered standby mode ahead of Wednesday’s major risk event. However, resistance can be found at $44,500 with the next point of interest at $50,000. Beyond this point is the all-time high just below $69,000.

Should prices slip back below $37,000, this may open the doors towards $30,000 and $20,000.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

AI is here – and everywhere: 3 AI researchers look to the challenges ahead in 2024

By Anjana Susarla, Michigan State University; Casey Fiesler, University of Colorado Boulder, and Kentaro Toyama, University of Michigan 

2023 was an inflection point in the evolution of artificial intelligence and its role in society. The year saw the emergence of generative AI, which moved the technology from the shadows to center stage in the public imagination. It also saw boardroom drama in an AI startup dominate the news cycle for several days. And it saw the Biden administration issue an executive order and the European Union pass a law aimed at regulating AI, moves perhaps best described as attempting to bridle a horse that’s already galloping along.

We’ve assembled a panel of AI scholars to look ahead to 2024 and describe the issues AI developers, regulators and everyday people are likely to face, and to give their hopes and recommendations.


Casey Fiesler, Associate Professor of Information Science, University of Colorado Boulder

2023 was the year of AI hype. Regardless of whether the narrative was that AI was going to save the world or destroy it, it often felt as if visions of what AI might be someday overwhelmed the current reality. And though I think that anticipating future harms is a critical component of overcoming ethical debt in tech, getting too swept up in the hype risks creating a vision of AI that seems more like magic than a technology that can still be shaped by explicit choices. But taking control requires a better understanding of that technology.

One of the major AI debates of 2023 was around the role of ChatGPT and similar chatbots in education. This time last year, most relevant headlines focused on how students might use it to cheat and how educators were scrambling to keep them from doing so – in ways that often do more harm than good.

However, as the year went on, there was a recognition that a failure to teach students about AI might put them at a disadvantage, and many schools rescinded their bans. I don’t think we should be revamping education to put AI at the center of everything, but if students don’t learn about how AI works, they won’t understand its limitations – and therefore how it is useful and appropriate to use and how it’s not. This isn’t just true for students. The more people understand how AI works, the more empowered they are to use it and to critique it.

So my prediction, or perhaps my hope, for 2024 is that there will be a huge push to learn. In 1966, Joseph Weizenbaum, the creator of the ELIZA chatbot, wrote that machines are “often sufficient to dazzle even the most experienced observer,” but that once their “inner workings are explained in language sufficiently plain to induce understanding, its magic crumbles away.” The challenge with generative artificial intelligence is that, in contrast to ELIZA’s very basic pattern matching and substitution methodology, it is much more difficult to find language “sufficiently plain” to make the AI magic crumble away.

I think it’s possible to make this happen. I hope that universities that are rushing to hire more technical AI experts put just as much effort into hiring AI ethicists. I hope that media outlets help cut through the hype. I hope that everyone reflects on their own uses of this technology and its consequences. And I hope that tech companies listen to informed critiques in considering what choices continue to shape the future.

Many of the challenges in the year ahead have to do with problems of AI that society is already facing.

Kentaro Toyama, Professor of Community Information, University of Michigan

In 1970, Marvin Minsky, the AI pioneer and neural network skeptic, told Life magazine, “In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.” With the singularity, the moment artificial intelligence matches and begins to exceed human intelligence – not quite here yet – it’s safe to say that Minsky was off by at least a factor of 10. It’s perilous to make predictions about AI.

Still, making predictions for a year out doesn’t seem quite as risky. What can be expected of AI in 2024? First, the race is on! Progress in AI had been steady since the days of Minsky’s prime, but the public release of ChatGPT in 2022 kicked off an all-out competition for profit, glory and global supremacy. Expect more powerful AI, in addition to a flood of new AI applications.

The big technical question is how soon and how thoroughly AI engineers can address the current Achilles’ heel of deep learning – what might be called generalized hard reasoning, things like deductive logic. Will quick tweaks to existing neural-net algorithms be sufficient, or will it require a fundamentally different approach, as neuroscientist Gary Marcus suggests? Armies of AI scientists are working on this problem, so I expect some headway in 2024.

Meanwhile, new AI applications are likely to result in new problems, too. You might soon start hearing about AI chatbots and assistants talking to each other, having entire conversations on your behalf but behind your back. Some of it will go haywire – comically, tragically or both. Deepfakes, AI-generated images and videos that are difficult to detect are likely to run rampant despite nascent regulation, causing more sleazy harm to individuals and democracies everywhere. And there are likely to be new classes of AI calamities that wouldn’t have been possible even five years ago.

Speaking of problems, the very people sounding the loudest alarms about AI – like Elon Musk and Sam Altman – can’t seem to stop themselves from building ever more powerful AI. I expect them to keep doing more of the same. They’re like arsonists calling in the blaze they stoked themselves, begging the authorities to restrain them. And along those lines, what I most hope for 2024 – though it seems slow in coming – is stronger AI regulation, at national and international levels.


Anjana Susarla, Professor of Information Systems, Michigan State University

In the year since the unveiling of ChatGPT, the development of generative AI models is continuing at a dizzying pace. In contrast to ChatGPT a year back, which took in textual prompts as inputs and produced textual output, the new class of generative AI models are trained to be multi-modal, meaning the data used to train them comes not only from textual sources such as Wikipedia and Reddit, but also from videos on YouTube, songs on Spotify, and other audio and visual information. With the new generation of multi-modal large language models (LLMs) powering these applications, you can use text inputs to generate not only images and text but also audio and video.

Companies are racing to develop LLMs that can be deployed on a variety of hardware and in a variety of applications, including running an LLM on your smartphone. The emergence of these lightweight LLMs and open source LLMs could usher in a world of autonomous AI agents – a world that society is not necessarily prepared for.

These advanced AI capabilities offer immense transformative power in applications ranging from business to precision medicine. My chief concern is that such advanced capabilities will pose new challenges for distinguishing between human-generated content and AI-generated content, as well as pose new types of algorithmic harms.

The deluge of synthetic content produced by generative AI could unleash a world where malicious people and institutions can manufacture synthetic identities and orchestrate large-scale misinformation. A flood of AI-generated content primed to exploit algorithmic filters and recommendation engines could soon overpower critical functions such as information verification, information literacy and serendipity provided by search engines, social media platforms and digital services.

The Federal Trade Commission has warned about fraud, deception, infringements on privacy and other unfair practices enabled by the ease of AI-assisted content creation. While digital platforms such as YouTube have instituted policy guidelines for disclosure of AI-generated content, there’s a need for greater scrutiny of algorithmic harms from agencies like the FTC and lawmakers working on privacy protections such as the American Data Privacy & Protection Act.

A new bipartisan bill introduced in Congress aims to codify algorithmic literacy as a key part of digital literacy. With AI increasingly intertwined with everything people do, it is clear that the time has come to focus not on algorithms as pieces of technology but to consider the contexts the algorithms operate in: people, processes and society.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Anjana Susarla, Professor of Information Systems, Michigan State University; Casey Fiesler, Associate Professor of Information Science, University of Colorado Boulder, and Kentaro Toyama, Professor of Community Information, University of Michigan

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economic lookahead: As we ring in 2024, can the US economy continue to avoid a recession?

By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Appalachian State University 

With economic forecasters rewriting their 2024 outlooks following recent moves from the Federal Reserve, The Conversation turned to two financial economists to share their thoughts on the upcoming year.

D. Brian Blank and Brandy Hadley are professors who study finance, firm financial decisions and the economy. They explain what they’re watching in 2024.

1. At this time last year, many experts saw a downturn on the horizon. Will that long-predicted recession finally come to pass in 2024?

The good news is, probably not.

The U.S. economy is not in a recession and will likely continue growing. Over the past year, gross domestic product has outpaced expectations, inflation is trending downward and employment remains robust. Real wages have increased, as has consumer spending. Additionally, housing demand is strong and financial markets are at all-time highs. While no one should argue that there will never be another recession, 2024 seems to be an unlikely time for one – unless there’s some unexpected spark like, for example, a new global pandemic.

To be fair, optimism leads to risk-taking, which can always contribute to the next downturn. And the U.S. economy faces plenty of challenges, including already elevated debt costs, a possible government shutdown, rising consumer debt and continued distress in commercial real estate, which could result in rolling industry downturns. Other headwinds include the national debt, other nations’ weaker economies and ongoing global conflict and trade tensions.

While 2023 has seemed to many people like a “soft landing” – that elusive achievement in which policymakers reduce inflation without sparking a downturnprior recessions have followed periods where people thought they had been avoided. That may be why bankers, finance leaders and economists are still noting the risks of interest rates remaining high.

Still, the fundamentals are strong and may be on the rise, if you believe chief financial officers. Plus, despite dysfunction in Washington, recent laws and policies like the CHIPS and Science Act, the bipartisan infrastructure deal, the AI Bill of Rights and the Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Use of Artificial Intelligence could further boost economic growth by stimulating job creation and enhancing competitiveness. Notably, public and private manufacturing and industrial investment are at unprecedented levels, and technology is quickly advancing, further contributing to the positive economic outlook, not to mention strong consumer balance sheets.

2. Then what about a ‘vibecession’? Are we in one now, and why does it matter for 2024?

When you look at the economic pessimism revealed in polls and on social media, a fascinating paradox emerges – despite the collective bad vibes, the majority of Americans say their personal economic situations are basically fine.

The writer Kyla Scanlon has called this state of affairs a “vibecession”: While the economy continues to grow, the vibes are just off. The fact that consumer spending continues to see sustained growth, despite the gloomy economic outlook, underscores a curious split between sentiment and economic activity.

3. What if individual income and spending keep rising? Wouldn’t that be enough to end the vibecession?

In short: Not necessarily.

While inflation has been high over the past couple of years – reaching a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 before falling to 3.1% recentlymost Americans have not seen their income rise as fast as inflation since 2021. As a result, many are frustrated that they can’t afford what they could in 2020. Is reminiscing like prior generations about how Coca-Cola used to cost a nickel killing the vibes? If inflation rises faster than wages in 2024, the vibes may suffer.

What’s more, other positive economic developments have seemed to barely affect the vibes. Just about everyone who wants a job has one, which is a crucial factor in maintaining consumer confidence and spending habits.

To be sure, gas prices also play an outsized role in shaping sentiment, and as they unexpectedly fell in December, sentiment improved. This highlights the impact of energy costs on the public’s mood and suggests that fluctuations in gas prices can quickly influence overall economic sentiment.

However, we suspect that consumers will keep doing what they’re doing – spending money and feeling bad about the economy – until some shock forces them out of it. This weird contradiction between perceived gloom and personal financial well-being highlights the complex interplay of psychological factors and material realities that shapes the overall economic narrative.

4. Could the vibecession become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Consumers say they feel bad, but they’re continuing to spend more than expected, which has been the case for more than a year now. These facts seem at odds with each other, and some experts worry the pessimism itself could hurt the economy. This is because people spend less when they’re concerned about the future.

However, this has been the case for months – so it’s unclear why it should change now.

While understanding that consumer sentiment is complex, we think it makes more sense to focus on what people do, not what they say. And people are behaving in a way that’s consistent with a strong economy due to rising real income, not to mention a robust labor market.

And overall, if you tell people for the better part of two years that a recession is imminent, you shouldn’t be shocked that they’re gloomy. If the consensus is wrong, it should surprise no one when sentiment diverges from economic data – especially with politicians blaming each other for a weaker economy.

5. What else are you watching for in 2024?

Coming off the December Federal Reserve meeting, many forecasters have rewritten their 2024 outlooks with the expectation that the Fed will lower rates more than they anticipated before Chair Jerome Powell gave an optimistic press conference. Though many expected Powell to minimize discussions about lowering rates, meeting responses were strong, deeming inflation defeated and consensus expectations forecasting a benchmark federal funds rate below 4% by year end to relax financial conditions.

While investors appear to have overreacted – again – additional slowing in inflation and economic growth is likely as the economy continues to normalize post-pandemic. The most likely outcome for 2024 is that the Federal Open Market Committee lowers rates following more downward revisions to inflation data beginning as early as March until rates end the year just below the Fed’s 4.5% federal funds rate projection. However, the Fed isn’t waiting for inflation to reach its 2% target before lowering rates, which means that rapidly falling inflation could make more rate cuts possible.

Economic growth is likely to remain strong in 2024, and inflation will likely slow, albeit at a more muted rate. And with mortgage rates falling below 7% now, housing starts and mortgage originations are rising. Now, housing affordability may improve in the coming year, albeit from the worst level in decades.

While 2024 is likely to involve debates in other areas, hopefully fewer of these economic conversations will happen in 2024 than in 2023. And if we are lucky, markets will rise at least as quickly, though we should remember that almost everyone was wrong last year – and if there’s one prediction we can make with confidence, it’s that at least some of today’s forecasts will look pretty silly in retrospect.The Conversation

About the Authors:

D. Brian Blank, Associate Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Associate Professor of Finance and the David A. Thompson Distinguished Scholar of Applied Investments, Appalachian State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Six Reasons This Vancouver Expert Thinks Silver Could Soar Beyond US$30

John Newell of Golden Sky Minerals explains why he believe silver will take off in 2024.

Source: John Newell  (1/2/24) 

Potential for Explosive Price Rise

Many precious metal analysts suggest that silver prices could experience an “explosive” rise in 2024 if global supplies continue to fall short of demand.

This suggests that there may be significant upside potential for silver prices.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve has signaled its plans to pivot to interest rate cuts in 2024.

Historically, lower interest rates tend to be favorable for precious metals like silver, as they can reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.

Green Energy Demand

Silver is used in various applications related to green energy, including photovoltaics for solar technology and 5G networks.

As the demand for green energy continues to grow, it is expected to drive industrial demand for silver, which could support higher prices.

Favorable Supply-Demand Dynamics

The global supply of silver is expected to fall short of demand for the third consecutive year. The article mentions a structural deficit in the silver market, which can be a bullish factor for prices.

Industrial Demand: Silver is used in a wide range of industrial applications, including consumer electronics and vehicle production. Rising industrial demand can contribute to higher silver prices.

Potential for greater Than US$30 Prices

Some experts believe that silver prices could push up toward the major resistance level of US$30 per ounce in 2024.

There is optimism that this price barrier will be breached, potentially leading to further gains.

Positive Sentiment

Recent articles in the financial pages and precious metal sites suggest that the fundamentals for the silver market are extremely bullish, with the only missing driver being investor interest.

If investor interest in silver increases, it could further boost prices.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
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John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

2024 Outlook: 3 Potential Monster Movers

By ForexTime 

Global financial markets are set to be influenced by a cocktail of themes in the new year.

An anticipated pivot by the Federal Reserve to rate cuts, geopolitical risks and the US elections among other factors could translate to heightened volatility!

Here are 3 assets that may see big moves in 2024:

1) Will SPX500 bull party rollover into 2024?

After gaining more than 24% in 2023, things could spice up for the S&P 500 in the new year due to growing noise around the US presidential elections in November.

Based on all major polls, there is strong possibility of another standoff between Biden and Trump, with the latter currently leading taking a lead.

  • A Biden victory may represent continuation of the current policy which could be welcomed by markets that lean towards stability and predictable outcomes.
  • Trump’s possible victory could be accompanied by controversy with his proven protectionist trade stance straining US-China relations. However, markets may cheer a renewal of his tax-cut policies.

Beyond the US elections, look out for:

  • Fed rate cuts
  • AI-mania: more room to run?
  • Corporate earnings supported by lower rates

Signs of cooling inflation have boosted bets around the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2024 while optimism is growing around the US economy heading for a ‘soft landing’.

As things stand, markets are predicting that the Fed’s benchmark rates will be 150 basis points lower by end-2024.

These expectations along with the rapid growth of artificial intelligence may turbocharge tech stocks which account for roughly 29% of the S&P500 weighting.

On the flip side…

The S&P500 may struggle to push higher if US rates remains higher for longer.

Should the US economy experience a “hard landing” this could sour risk appetite, pressuring the S&P500 as a result.

Technical outlook…

The SPX500 looks to be trending higher with bulls back in control on the weekly/monthly timeframe.

  • A strong close above 4819.50 could open the doors towards fresh the all-time highs
  • Should prices dip back below 4600, this may trigger a selloff towards sticky monthly support around 4170.
  • Below this point could encourage a further decline towards 3800 and levels not seen since October 2022 at 3600.

2) Bitcoin to $100,000 and beyond?

The Bitcoin hype could go into overdrive in 2024 amid growing expectations around the United States allowing its first spot Bitcoin ETF.

Indeed, investors are incredibly hopeful following a wave of applications from asset-management titans, such as BlackRock, coupled with the SEC’s loss in court against Grayscale rejected application.

In fact, the first batch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to be approved by January 10th according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

A spot bitcoin ETF is a big deal as it provides investors with an easier and supposedly more reliable access to the world’s largest cryptocurrency without having to purchase it directly.

Halving to turbocharge prices higher?

The so-called Bitcoin halving due in April 2024 is also seen as anther bullish catalyst.

Historically, the coin has reached new record highs after the last three halvings.

What is a halving?

Bitcoin’s halving will half the amount of tokens that miners receive as reward for their work.

  • This happens every four years, in this instance miners payout will be reduced to 3.125 BTC.
  • Markets usually view this event positive as it is set to further contract the supply of Bitcoin.

On the flip side…

Bitcoin may slip if the ETF approval takes longer than expected. Should the SEC decide to reject all the applications, the cryptocurrency could experience a heavy selloff.

Even if a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, the cryptocurrency may respond in a lacklustre fashion if the ETF fails to attract inflows despite the hype.

Traders also may end up adopting a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ response to Bitcoin’s halving announcement with the expected rally to new record highs being delayed.

Technical outlook…

Bitcoin is turning bullish on the weekly charts with prices respecting a weekly bullish channel.

  • The next key level of interest is at $50000. Beyond this point is the all-time high just below $69,000 with a breakout above this level perhaps opening a path towards $100,000.
  • Should prices slip back below $37,000, this may open the doors towards $30,000 and $20,000.

3) Gold set to deliver glittering returns?

The outlook for gold shines brights in 2024 thanks to fundamental forces but technicals could throw a wrench into the works.

After surging to a fresh all-time high at $2135 in December, gold bulls could switch things up as the Fed prepares for its first rate cut since March 2020.

Signs of cooling inflation in the United States and across the world have fuelled speculation for a global central bank pivot. This development is likely to weaken the dollar along with Treasury yields, keeping gold buoyed.

According to Fed Funds futures, the Fed is expected to cut rates as much as 150 basis points in 2024, creating an environment for gold to glitter.

Note: Gold pays no interest, so lower rates reduce the income foregone by not holding other assets.

Keep eye on geopolitical risks…

  • The Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas conflict and China-Taiwan tensions may influence overall sentiment in 2024 – stimulating appetite for safe-haven assets like bullion.

On the flip side…

Gold could tumble if markets have gotten ahead of themselves in terms of US rate cut timings.

Most Fed officials have forecast that the US central bank could cut rates by 75 basis points in 2024, essentially half the 150 basis points expected by traders. This possible disconnect could spoil the party for gold bulls.

Technical outlook…

Watch out for the aggressively bearish weekly candle back in December.

  • Sustained weakness below the psychological $2000 level may send prices towards $1935 and $1810 – near the low of 2023.
  • Should $2000 prove to be reliable support, this may re-open the doors towards the all-time high at $2135 and beyond.

Bloomberg’s FX model currently forecasts a 77% chance that GOLD trades within the $1799.07 – $2532.49 range during Q4 of 2024.


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