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Speculator Extremes: SOFR-3M, Nasdaq, Corn & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 16th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 12.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 751,218 net contracts this week with a gain of 65,855 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 10.8 this week. The speculator position registered 127,917 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 16,634 contracts in speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 95.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 43.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 36,571 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -205 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level is at a 95.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 49.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 14,245 net contracts this week with a retreat by -6,767 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 89.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.2 this week.

The speculator position was -1,793 net contracts this week with a dip of -316 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -219,968 net contracts this week with a fall by -46,935 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.1 this week. The speculator position was -93,668 net contracts this week with a decrease of -55,619 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -889,385 net contracts this week with a drop of -102,365 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -67.9 this week. The speculator position was -11,242 net contracts this week with a decline of -8,752 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

Finally, the Palladium speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.4 this week. The speculator position was -11,449 net contracts this week with a drop of -1,977 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions

19 Jan

Week Ahead: USDJPY set to extend uptrend?

By ForexTime

Yen down against G10 majors YTD

Watch out for BoJ policy meeting

Big US data likely to rock USD

USDJPY bullish but RSI signals overbought

Key level of interest at 148.50

Monetary policy will take centre stage in the week ahead as major central banks kick off their first meetings of 2024.

Also watch out for top-tier economic data and corporate earnings announcements from the largest companies in the world:

Monday, 22nd January

CNH: China loan prime rates
USD: US Conference Board leading index

Tuesday, 23rd January

EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
JPY: BoJ rate decision
NQ100_m: Netflix earnings

Wednesday, 24th January

CAD: BoC rate decision
EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P Global PMI
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
USD: S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI
S&P500_m: Tesla earnings

Thursday, 25th January

EUR: ECB rate decision, Germany IFO business climate
USD: Q4 GDP, initial jobless claims

Friday, 26th January

JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI, BoJ meeting minutes
USD: US December PCE report

Our focus falls on the Japanese Yen which has been on a back foot since December as bets fizzed out around a hawkish pivot by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from negative rates. This supported the USDJPY with the upside fuelled by stronger than expected US data which dampened expectations around the Fed cutting rates in March.

The widening interest rate differentials between the US and Japan over the recent weeks has propelled the USDJPY. Prices are testing resistance around 148.50 as of writing.

Here are 3 factors that may move the USDJPY next week.

BOJ policy meeting

The BoJ is widely expected to keep its yield-curve control and short-term interest rates unchanged at -0.1%.

Slowing inflation coupled with the devastating earthquake Japan experienced in early January have most likely reduced pressure on the BoJ to raise interest rates anytime soon. Nevertheless, much attention will be directed to the policy statement and updated quarterly outlook for fresh clues on rate hike timings.

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in an 83% probability of the BoJ hiking rates by June 2024.

Looking beyond the rate decision, the incoming Japan Tokyo CPI report on Friday may impact the Yen and rate hike expectations.

The Yen may extend losses if the BoJ maintains a dovish stance and offers zero clues on future rate hikes.
Any clues offered on future hikes in the policy statement or updated quarterly outlook could support the Yen.

Big US data

A week packed with top-tier US data is likely to shape expectations around the Fed’s next move.

The potential market shakers will be the final quarter GDP figures and December PCE report. Markets expect the US economy to have expanded 1.9% in Q4, down from the 4.9% in the prior quarter. Regarding the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, it is forecast to rise 0.2% month-over-month compared to 0.1% in November. However, the year-over-year is expected to cool 3% vs 3.2% in the prior month.

Should overall US economic data disappoint, and inflation numbers print below forecasts, this may weaken the dollar – pulling the USDJPY lower as a result.
A set of strong economic reports and hotter-than-expected PCE report have the potential to boost the USD – pushing the USDJPY higher.

Technical forces

The USDJPY is respecting an ascending channel on the daily timeframe with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 70, indicating that prices are overbought. In addition, key resistance levels can be found at 148.50 and the psychological 150.00 level.

A strong breakout and daily close above 148.50 may open the doors towards 150.00 – a level not seen since mid-November 2023 and beyond.
Should prices fail to conquer 148.50, this could trigger a decline back towards the 50-day SMA at 146.15 and 200-day SMA at 143.90.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

18 Jan

What the Red Sea crisis could mean for the electric vehicle industry and the planet

By Tom Stacey, Anglia Ruskin University

Automotive giants Tesla and Volvo have announced pauses to the production of their electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe. Electric vehicles are seeing record sales and demand worldwide, but a lack of parts means that factories cannot sustain their production.

The reasons for this are complex. Parts are taking longer to deliver as attacks by Houthi rebels force ships to avoid the Red Sea. And there are also issues around the monopoly that Chinese factories hold on many EV components, including crucial lithium batteries.

These factors have made it harder (and more expensive) to move parts across the globe to support EV production in Europe.

Modern global supply chains are tightly orchestrated. Moving goods to factories (and away from them to customers) is heavily demand driven. Forecasting this demand has become a huge industry, valued at over US$27 billion (£21.3 billion).

But even with all this intelligence, political tensions, pandemics and even stuck ships can turn this industry on its head overnight. This is particularly the case where the supply side is constrained, as it is with EV batteries from China.

In 2021, a container ship called the Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking this vital shipping route from the far east to Europe for the best part of a week. The blockage prevented goods from passing through the canal, so had the knock-on effect of raising container shipping prices.

Even though the Suez canal has been open for two years, the recent attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have caused shipping companies to divert their ships to less direct routes – adding significant costs and time.

What does this mean for consumers and the planet? And are there ways for EV manufacturers to circumvent these risks?

Supply chains are fickle things

If manufacturers cannot produce due to shortages, then factories that make a single product such as Tesla’s gigafactory near Berlin (which produces the best-selling Model Y SUV) have one option – to idle the lines. Hourly-paid workers are sent home and where possible, salaried staff will continue in other roles such as safety checking and testing.

Tesla and Volvo have other factories and other product lines that can keep running. But even finished vehicles travelling from plants in China for sale in Europe are affected by the need to avoid the Red Sea. Vehicle manufacturer, Geely, who also produce Volvo vehicles in China, has warned of delays to European consumers expecting their new cars in early 2024.

Delays are not the only issue associated with shipping parts and vehicles around Africa to avoid the Red Sea. The 3,000 extra miles travelled by ships means they burn more fuel – a lot more fuel.

Peter Sand, a shipping analyst at ocean and air freight analytics platform, Xeneta, has estimated conservatively that each ship taking this route produces 2,700 extra tons of CO₂. If the international shipping industry were a country, it would already be among the world’s top carbon-emitting nations. And greenhouse gas emissions from ships are projected to increase by up to 50% by 2050.

EVs are undoubtedly better for the environment than their combustion engine counterparts. However, when supply is constrained, buyers often have little choice but to delay making the switch. Sales figures from 2023 show that private buyers still did not purchase as many EVs in the historically buoyant month of September as they did in the year before due to uncertainty in the market.

Fleet demand remains strong. But the market can only grow as fast as manufacturers can make cars. And pausing production is not going to help the transition.

Can manufacturers square this circle?

Clearly, these pinch points in the global supply chain have huge repercussions for manufacturers and consumers. Tesla’s factory in Germany is tight-lipped about actual production figures, but reports claim it makes around 4,000 units per week. Each car makes around US$8,000 profit, so this shut down could, in raw terms, lead to a loss of US$64 million in profit.

How do they prevent this? Supply chains do have some element of elasticity, but supply chain managers are always keen to reduce the potential of something known as the “bullwhip effect”. This is where marked differences in order quantities lead to even more shortages down the line. Managing expectations and reassuring buyers will thus help to smooth any issues with supply.

Making supply chains more resilient is also a huge area of research. Rerouting ships to prevent lost components is an example of this concept being put into practice.

If the parts were lost to rebel forces or pirates by taking the Red Sea route, then the revenue loss would be even larger. So although diverting routes is worse for the planet and arguably bad press, it would seem to be the lesser of two evils.

Multinational automotive manufacturer Stellantis has announced that it is instead bypassing the Red Sea by air-freighting parts to its EU factories. But, while this is faster than shipping parts around Africa, it’s not good for either CO₂ emissions or cost.

Keeping the global economy running

To reduce the disruptive potential of geopolitical tensions, Tesla and other automakers are attempting to produce their product closer to the consumer. The strategy is to put factories on each continent or geographical area where their products are sold.

However, as China still produces many of the core EV parts, manufacturers will have to invest heavily in their suppliers and put them closer to their factories.

Ultimately, this will require investment in skills and more factories. But with dropping profit margins, Chinese manufacturing dominance and inflationary pressures, it will continue to be a headache to implement.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

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Tom Stacey, Senior Lecturer in Operations and Supply Chain Management, Anglia Ruskin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

17 Jan

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: NQ100_m wobbles above support

By ForexTime

NQ100_m wobble above support

Prices trapped within range

Weekly RSI near overbought levels

Incoming US data could trigger breakout

Key levels of interest at 16900 & 16630

After swinging within a range on the daily charts, the NQ100_m could be preparing for a breakout.

The first half of January was a rollercoaster ride for the index thanks to fundamental forces. A string of stronger-than-expected US economic data cooled Fed cut bets, impacting the tech filled NQ100_m index.

Prices are currently trapped within a narrow range near all-time highs, with bulls and bears waiting for a fresh directional catalyst. A significant move could be around the corner, especially when factoring in the incoming US data this week which could influence the NQ100_m which is filled with tech stocks.

Starting on the weekly charts, the NQ100_m is respecting an ascending weekly channel while prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-week SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index is hovering near 70, indicating that prices could be heavily overbought. In addition, potential resistance may be found at 17,000 just above the current all-time high.

We see a similar bullish picture on the monthly charts as prices create higher highs and higher lows. The MACD is also trading above zero. It will be worth keeping an eye on how prices behave at the 16995 all-time high. Support can be found around 14,200 – near the most recent higher low.

Placing our attention back to the daily timeframe, it may be wise to keep a close eye on how prices react to support at 16630 and resistance at 16900.

A strong breakdown and daily close below 16,630 could see a decline towards the 50-day SMA at 16,250
Should prices push above 16,900, this may open the doors back to the all-time high at 16,995 and beyond.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

16 Jan

Data brokers know everything about you – what FTC case against ad tech giant Kochava reveals

By Anne Toomey McKenna, University of Richmond

Kochava, the self-proclaimed industry leader in mobile app data analytics, is locked in a legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission in a case that could lead to big changes in the global data marketplace and in Congress’ approach to artificial intelligence and data privacy.

The stakes are high because Kochava’s secretive data acquisition and AI-aided analytics practices are commonplace in the global location data market. In addition to numerous lesser-known data brokers, the mobile data market includes larger players like Foursquare and data market exchanges like Amazon’s AWS Data Exchange. The FTC’s recently unsealed amended complaint against Kochava makes clear that there’s truth to what Kochava advertises: it can provide data for “Any Channel, Any Device, Any Audience,” and buyers can “Measure Everything with Kochava.”

Separately, the FTC is touting a settlement it just reached with data broker Outlogic, in what it calls the “first-ever ban on the use and sale of sensitive location data.” Outlogic has to destroy the location data it has and is barred from collecting or using such information to determine who comes and goes from sensitive locations, like health care centers, homeless and domestic abuse shelters, and religious places.

According to the FTC and proposed class-action lawsuits against Kochava on behalf of adults and children, the company secretly collects, without notice or consent, and otherwise obtains vast amounts of consumer location and personal data. It then analyzes that data using AI, which allows it to predict and influence consumer behavior in an impressively varied and alarmingly invasive number of ways, and serves it up for sale.

Kochava has denied the FTC’s allegations.

The FTC says Kochava sells a “360-degree perspective” on individuals and advertises it can “connect precise geolocation data with email, demographics, devices, households, and channels.” In other words, Kochava takes location data, aggregates it with other data and links it to consumer identities. The data it sells reveals precise information about a person, such as visits to hospitals, “reproductive health clinics, places of worship, homeless and domestic violence shelters, and addiction recovery facilities.” Moreover, by selling such detailed data about people, the FTC says “Kochava is enabling others to identify individuals and exposing them to threats of stigma, stalking, discrimination, job loss, and even physical violence.”

I’m a lawyer and law professor practicing, teaching and researching about AI, data privacy and evidence. These complaints underscore for me that U.S. law has not kept pace with regulation of commercially available data or governance of AI.

Most data privacy regulations in the U.S. were conceived in the pre-generative AI era, and there is no overarching federal law that addresses AI-driven data processing. There are Congressional efforts to regulate the use of AI in decision making, like hiring and sentencing. There are also efforts to provide public transparency around AI’s use. But Congress has yet to pass legislation.

The Federal Trade Commission’s suit against Kochava is set against a backdrop of minimal regulation of data brokers.

What litigation documents reveal

According to the FTC, Kochava secretly collects and then sells its “Kochava Collective” data, which includes precise geolocation data, comprehensive profiles of individual consumers, consumers’ mobile app use details and Kochava’s “audience segments.”

The FTC says Kochava’s audience segments can be based on “behaviors” and sensitive information such as gender identity, political and religious affiliation, race, visits to hospitals and abortion clinics, and people’s medical information, like menstruation and ovulation, and even cancer treatments. By selecting certain audience segments, Kochava customers can identify and target extremely specific groups. For example, this could include people who gender identify as “other,” or all the pregnant females who are African American and Muslim. The FTC says selected audience segments can be narrowed to a specific geographical area or, conceivably, even down to a specific building.

By identify, the FTC explains that Kochava customers are able to obtain the name, home address, email address, economic status and stability, and much more data about people within selected groups. This data is purchased by organizations like advertisers, insurers and political campaigns that seek to narrowly classify and target people. The FTC also says it can be purchased by people who want to harm others.

How Kochava acquires such sensitive data

The FTC says Kochava acquires consumer data in two ways: through Kochava’s software development kits that it provides to app developers, and directly from other data brokers. The FTC says those Kochava-supplied software development kits are installed in over 10,000 apps globally. Kochava’s kits, embedded with Kochava’s coding, collect hordes of data and send it back to Kochava without the consumer being told or consenting to the data collection.

Another lawsuit against Kochava in California alleges similar charges of surreptitious data collection and analysis, and that Kochava sells customized data feeds based on extremely sensitive and private information precisely tailored to its clients’ needs.

The data broker marketplace has been tracking you for years, thanks to mobile phones and web browser cookies.

AI pierces your privacy

The FTC’s complaint also illustrates how advancing AI tools are enabling a new phase in data analysis. Generative AI’s ability to process vast amounts of data is reshaping what can be done with and learned from mobile data in ways that invade privacy. This includes inferring and disclosing sensitive or otherwise legally protected information, like medical records and images.

AI provides the ability both to know and predict just about anything about individuals and groups, even very sensitive behavior. It also makes it possible to manipulate individual and group behavior, inducing decisions in favor of the specific users of the AI tool.

This type of “AI coordinated manipulation” can supplant your decision-making ability without your knowledge.

Privacy in the balance

The FTC enforces laws against unfair and deceptive business practices, and it informed Kochava in 2022 that the company was in violation. Both sides have had some wins and losses in the ongoing case. Senior U.S. District Judge B. Lynn Winmill, who is overseeing the case, dismissed the FTC’s first complaint and required more facts from the FTC. The commission filed an amended complaint that provided much more specific allegations.

Winmill has not yet ruled on another Kochava motion to dismiss the FTC’s case, but as of a Jan. 3, 2024 filing in the case, the parties are proceeding with discovery. A 2025 trial date is expected, but the date has not yet been set.

For now, companies, privacy advocates and policymakers are likely keeping an eye on this case. Its outcome, combined with proposed legislation and the FTC’s focus on generative AI, data and privacy, could spell big changes for how companies acquire data, the ways that AI tools can be used to analyze data, and what data can lawfully be used in machine- and human-based data analytics.

About the Author:

Anne Toomey McKenna, Visiting Professor of Law, University of Richmond

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

16 Jan

Curious Kids: how much money is there in the world?

By Renaud Foucart, Lancaster University

How much money is there in the world? – Tsubamé, aged ten, London

If we want to add up how much money there is in the world, a good place to start would be counting all the notes and coins out there – in people’s wallets and money boxes and in cash machines.

Let’s start with pounds. There is about £84 billion (or 84,000,000,000) of British money out there in coins and notes. There’s also US$2,236 billion in US money, €1,578 billion in the money of the European Union and ¥9,616 billion in Chinese money – plus money in many other currencies.

As money is not the same in every country, summing up all the coins and notes in the world means that you need to measure how much a US dollar, an Indian rupee, or a Chinese yuan is worth in Great British pounds. If this is done with the latest available data, then added up, you will find a total of £6,113 billion.

Curious Kids is a series by The Conversation that gives children the chance to have their questions about the world answered by experts. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to [email protected] and make sure you include the asker’s first name, age and town or city. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we’ll do our very best.

This amount could change very quickly and is probably already outdated at the moment you read this article.

This is partly because countries print more money all the time. But it’s also because the exchange rate – how much a British pound, say, is worth in another currency, like US dollars – is not always the same. Today, £1 is worth around US$1.30 – one dollar and 30 cents in US money. Ten years ago, it was much more: one dollar and 70 cents.

How many US dollars you get for a pound depends on how much people want to use British money. That’s why when some people decide to create their own money, such as cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, they spend so much time trying to convince others to use it.

But counting coins and notes does not tell us everything about how much money there is in the world. For instance, people have money in their bank accounts that do not correspond to any specific coin. In the UK, around 96% of money exists only in electronic form. When you include that, the total is not £84 billion but £2,223 billion. If you add up again the figures available for the entire world – money in coins and notes, plus electronic money in bank accounts – you get roughly £46,557 billion.

Wealth – but not money

What’s more, many things that are worth a lot are not money itself. Very rich people keep only a little part of their fortune in cash. They prefer to also own things like businesses that are likely to make them even richer.

Perhaps a better way to count how much money there is in the world is to look at the value of the things we buy and sell. That is a tricky thing to do, because you don’t want to double count anything. If farmers sell the milk of their cows to a cheese maker, who then sells cheese to a shop, which sells it to people, all the value – the milk, the cheese and the people selling it, is contained in what you pay at the shop: the final sale.

When you sum up all these final sales, you will find that last year, in the entire world, there was around £79,437 billion worth of value created.

But there are also a lot of things that have value and are not exchanged. If you own a bag of diamonds and keep it in your bedroom, you are rich. But this is not money. And you are not exchanging it either. So it does not count in any of the numbers I have given you so far.

And sometimes, things that have value cannot easily be turned into money. Imagine that you own a beautiful forest, with a nice clean river to swim in during the summer, and some very rare birds and old trees. And underneath that forest, there is a lot of oil.

By owning this forest, you are very wealthy. Like the diamonds in your bedroom, owning the land and the forest and the oil makes you rich. But once you decide to turn your wealth into a lot of money, you will need to destroy the forest: cut down the trees for wood to sell, and drill into the earth to get the oil out.

People might have enjoyed spending time with friends walking in the forest, or paddling in the rivers. This has value, and it is lost when the forest is gone. And the wealth you held by owning the forest is gone too.

If we want the money we use to still be worth something in the future, we sometimes need to restrain from destroying what we own to get cash today.

About the Author:

Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

14 Jan

Currency Speculators push British Pound bets to highest since September

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Swiss Franc & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (13,751 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (10,619 contracts), the British Pound (5,529 contracts), the Japanese Yen (1,246 contracts), the Swiss Franc (823 contracts), Bitcoin (603 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (487 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-9,193 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,221 contracts), the EuroFX (-599 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-659 contracts) also having lower bets.

Currency Speculators continue to raise their British Pound bets to highest since September

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the recent gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling. The Pound Sterling speculative positioning increased this week for a second straight week and for the seventh time over the past ten weeks.

The GBP speculator position has now been in an overall bullish position for the past six weeks following a run of nine weeks in bearish territory from the beginning of October to the end of November.

This renewed bullishness has brought the net speculator standing (currently at +20,734 contracts) to the highest level in the past sixteen weeks, dating back to September 19th.

The British Pound Sterling’s exchange rate with the US Dollar has been on the move higher as well after finding a major support level at 1.2100 for a period of weeks in October and November. Since then, the GBPUSD currency pair has trended up with gains in seven out of the past nine weeks to a close this week at the 1.2753 threshold and just below the 200-week moving average at 1.2844.

Major Currencies – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (93 percent) and the EuroFX (71 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Brazilian Real (67 percent) and the Australian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (30 percent) and the Japanese Yen (41 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Bitcoin (42 percent) and the Swiss Franc (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (29.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (28.8 percent)
EuroFX (70.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (71.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (66.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (41.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (40.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (59.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (54.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (93.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (93.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (67.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.0 percent)
Bitcoin (42.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.0 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (47 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (45 percent), the Australian Dollar (36 percent) and the Japanese Yen (30 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-27.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-30.5 percent)
EuroFX (-10.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (37.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (42.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.6 percent)
Bitcoin (1.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-20.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.2	15.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	24.3	13.2
– Net Position:	2,910	-2,210	-700
– Gross Longs:	16,041	3,598	2,450
– Gross Shorts:	13,131	5,808	3,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	74.8	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.0	26.4	1.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 118,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	57.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	79.4	6.2
– Net Position:	118,877	-156,887	38,010
– Gross Longs:	208,473	409,738	82,429
– Gross Shorts:	89,596	566,625	44,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	30.5	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	7.3	7.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	44.0	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	57.3	15.0
– Net Position:	20,734	-22,875	2,141
– Gross Longs:	60,684	75,972	27,973
– Gross Shorts:	39,950	98,847	25,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	32.9	62.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-18.4	8.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	56.9	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.6	29.8	19.6
– Net Position:	-55,949	54,191	1,758
– Gross Longs:	41,364	113,876	40,937
– Gross Shorts:	97,313	59,685	39,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	60.1	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	-25.0	-8.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	46.1	31.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	41.1	27.8
– Net Position:	-4,392	2,524	1,868
– Gross Longs:	11,044	23,140	15,792
– Gross Shorts:	15,436	20,616	13,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	42.8	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.0	-44.9	30.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	54.7	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	55.7	14.1
– Net Position:	-7,380	-1,787	9,167
– Gross Longs:	42,286	93,842	33,353
– Gross Shorts:	49,666	95,629	24,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	50.4	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.9	-43.3	29.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	49.5	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.9	36.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-32,274	21,070	11,204
– Gross Longs:	47,326	77,374	28,218
– Gross Shorts:	79,600	56,304	17,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	32.9	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.7	-39.8	33.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	41.0	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	41.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,767	-202	1,969
– Gross Longs:	16,221	15,791	5,164
– Gross Shorts:	17,988	15,993	3,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	44.3	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.5	-46.4	30.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 88,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.9	42.7	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	77.4	1.0
– Net Position:	88,439	-94,006	5,567
– Gross Longs:	143,436	115,940	8,184
– Gross Shorts:	54,997	209,946	2,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.1	5.4	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-13.4	-2.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.2	24.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	67.9	2.0
– Net Position:	25,114	-27,756	2,642
– Gross Longs:	44,100	15,478	3,888
– Gross Shorts:	18,986	43,234	1,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	31.3	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	1.9	58.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.9	6.2	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.0	3.3	2.7
– Net Position:	-1,618	779	839
– Gross Longs:	20,654	1,654	1,561
– Gross Shorts:	22,272	875	722
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	84.5	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-0.3	-2.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

13 Jan

Speculator Extremes: DowJones & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 9th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 79.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 24,079 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,537 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 44.1 this week. The speculator position registered 111,283 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 30,024 contracts in speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 54.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 21,012 net contracts this week with a rise of 21,933 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 8.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 685,363 net contracts this week with a boost of 179,262 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq-Mini

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 45.4 this week.

The speculator position was 36,776 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,291 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -30.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,049 net contracts this week with a drop of -16,121 contracts in the speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.2 this week. The speculator position was -173,033 net contracts this week with a decrease of -26,305 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -74.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,490 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -29,428 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 2.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.5 this week. The speculator position was -29,208 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,279 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

Finally, the Live Cattle speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.8 this week. The speculator position was 23,367 net contracts this week with a dip of -7,286 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

12 Jan

Week Ahead: EURUSD on brink of major breakout?

By ForexTime

EURUSD braces for heavy event week

Keep eye on top-tier EU + US data

Speeches from central bank officials also in focus

Major breakout could be on horizon

First points of interest at 1.10 and 1.09

The EURUSD could be pumped with fresh life next week due to key economic data, speeches from central bank officials and threat of a partial US government shutdown.

Monday, 15th January

CNH: China medium-term lending facility rate
CAD: Canada existing home sales
EUR: Eurozone industrial production, Germany 2023 GDP report
World Economic Forum in Davos
US markets closed – Martin Luther King Jr. holiday

Tuesday, 16th January

EUR: Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
CAD: Canada CPI, housing starts
USD: US Empire Manufacturing, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speech
WSt30_m: Goldman Sachs earnings

Wednesday, 17th January

CNH: China GDP, retail sales and industrial production
EUR: Eurozone CPI, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
GBP: UK CPI
USD: US retail sales, industrial production, Fed Beige book, New York Fed President John Williams speech

Thursday, 18th January

AUD: Australia unemployment
NZD: New Zealand food prices
EUR: ECB minutes, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
JPY: Japan core machine orders, industrial production
USD: US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Friday, 19th January

CAD: Canada retail sales
JPY: Japan CPI, tertiary index
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
Deadline for avoiding partial US government shutdown

It has felt like the same old story for the EURUSD since the start of the new year with prices swinging within a range on the daily charts.

Given the exceptional list of major risk events over the coming week, a significant move could be around the corner…

Here are 4 factors to keep an eye on:

EU data dump + ECB President speech

It’s a week packed with crucial European economic reports that may influence expectations around when the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates this year.

Data from Germany, Europe’s largest economy will be under the spotlight with much focus on the 2023 growth figures, CPI and ZEW survey expectations. This will be complemented by the ECB meeting minutes for December’s meeting which will be scrutinized for fresh clues on the ECB’s next move. But the main course will be Christine Lagarde’s remarks during the World Economic Forum.

Traders are currently pricing in a 40% probability of a 25-basis point ECB rate cut by March 2024, with a move fully priced in for April.

The euro may weaken if overall economic data disappoints and Lagarde strikes a dovish tone in Davos – sending the EURUSD lower as a result.
Should overall economic data beat forecasts and Lagarde pushes back against rate cut bets, the euro could rise – elevating the EURUSD.

Key US data + Fed speeches

A barrage of top-tier US economic data has the potential to rock the dollar, impacting the EURUSD as a result.

Investors will be paying close attention to the latest retail sales figures, manufacturing data and consumer sentiment to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches from a host of Fed officials will be added to the mix, coupled with the beige book which could impact speculation around when US rates will be cut this year.

The latest hotter than expected US inflation report has slightly dented expectations around when the Fed will cut rates, but traders still see a 76% probability of a cut in March.

Stronger-than-expected data and hawkish remarks by Fed officials may boost the dollar as rate cut bets decline. This may pull the EURUSD lower.
Should overall US economic data disappoint, and Fed officials sound dovish, the dollar may weaken – pushing the EURUSD higher.

Possible partial government shutdown

The United States is facing a partial government shutdown deadline set to expire on January 19th.

Sentiment towards the US economy could take a hit, especially if a full shutdown happens beyond the February 2nd deadline. Given how this development is likely to influence the USD, its impact will most likely be seen on the EURUSD.

Technical forces

The EURUSD is respecting a bullish channel on the daily timeframe with a “golden cross” technical pattern in play. However, prices remain trapped within a 100-pip range with minor support at 1.1000 and resistance at 1.0900.

A strong breakout and daily close above 1.1000 could trigger a move towards the monthly resistance around 1.1100 and 1.1230 – a level not seen since mid-July 2023.
Should prices slip back below 1.0900, this could open a path back toward the 200-day SMA at 1.0840 and 1.0756.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

10 Jan

From besting Tetris AI to epic speedruns – inside gaming’s most thrilling feats

By James Dawes, Macalester College

After 13-year-old Willis Gibson became the first human to beat the original Nintendo version of Tetris, he dedicated his special win to his father, who passed away in December 2023.

The Oklahoma teen beat the game by defeating level after level until he reached the “kill screen” – that is, the moment when the Tetris artificial intelligence taps out in exhaustion, stopping play because its designers never wrote the code to advance further. Before Gibson, the only other player to overcome the game’s AI was another AI.

For any parent who has despaired over their children sinking countless hours into video games, Gibson’s victory over the cruel geometry of Tetris stands as a bracing corrective.

Despite the stereotypes, most gamers are anything but lazy. And they’re anything but mindless.

The world’s top players can sometimes serve as reminders of the best in us, with memorable achievements that range from the heroic to the inscrutably weird.

The perfect run

“Speedrunning” is a popular gaming subculture in which players meticulously optimize routes and exploit glitches to complete, in a matter of minutes, games that normally take hours, from the tightly constrained, run-and-gun action game Cuphead to the sprawling role-playing epic Baldur’s Gate 3.

In top-level competition, speedrunners strive to match the time of what’s referred to as a “TAS,” or “tool-assisted speed run.” To figure out the TAS time, players use game emulators to choreograph a theoretically perfect playthrough, advancing the game one frame at a time to determine the fastest possible time.

Success requires punishing precision, flawless execution and years of training.

The major speedrunning milestones are, like Olympic races, marked by mere fractions of a second. The urge to speedrun likely sprouts from an innate human longing for perfection – and a uniquely 21st century compulsion to best the robots.

A Twitch streamer who goes by the username Niftski is currently the human who has come closest to achieving this androidlike perfection. His 4-minute, 54.631-second world-record speedrun of Super Mario Bros. – achieved in September 2023 – is just 0.35 seconds shy of a flawless TAS.

Watching Niftski’s now-famous run is a dissonant experience. Goofy, retro, 8-bit Mario jumps imperturbably over goombas and koopa troopas with the iconic, cheerful “boink” sound of his hop.

Meanwhile, Niftski pants as his anxiety builds, his heart rate – tracked on screen during the livestream – peaking at 188 beats per minute.

When Mario bounces over the final big turtle at the finish line – “boink” – Niftski erupts into screams of shock and repeated cries of “Oh my God!”

He hyperventilates, struggles for oxygen and finally sobs from exhaustion and joy.

Twitch streamer Niftski’s record speedrun of Super Mario Bros. missed perfection by 0.35 seconds.

The largest world and its longest pig ride

This list couldn’t be complete without an achievement from Minecraft, the revolutionary video game that has become the second-best-selling title in history, with over 300 million copies sold – second only to Tetris’ 520 million units.

Minecraft populates the video game libraries of grade-schoolers and has been used as an educational tool in university classrooms. Even the British Museum has held an exhibition devoted to the game.

Minecraft is known as a sandbox game, which means that gamers can create and explore their own virtual worlds, limited only by their imagination and a few simple tools and resources – like buckets and sand, or, in the case of Minecraft, pickaxes and stone.

So what can you do in the Minecraft playground?

Well, you can ride on a pig. The Guinness Book of World Records marks the farthest distance at 414 miles. Or you can collect sunflowers. The world record for that is 89 in one minute. Or you can dig a tunnel – but you’ll need to make it 100,001 blocks long to edge out the current record.

My personal favorite is a collective, ongoing effort: a sprawling, global collaboration to recreate the world on a 1:1 scale using Minecraft blocks, with blocks counting as one cubic meter.

At their best, sandbox games like Minecraft can bring people closer to the joyful and healthily pointless play of childhood – a restorative escape from the anxious, utility-driven planning that dominates so much of adulthood.

Popular YouTuber MrBeast contributes to ‘Build the Earth’ by constructing a Minecraft replica of Raleigh, N.C.

The galaxy’s greatest collaboration

The Halo 3 gaming community participated in a bloodier version of the collective effort of Minecraft players.

The game, which pits humans against an alien alliance known as the Covenant, was released in 2007 to much fanfare.

Whether they were playing the single-player campaign mode or the online multiplayer mode, gamers around the world started seeing themselves as imaginary participants in a global cause to save humanity – in what came to be known as the “Great War.”

They organized round-the-clock campaign shifts, while sharing strategies in nearly 6,000 Halo wiki articles and 21 million online discussion posts.

Halo developer Bungie started tracking total alien deaths by all players, with the 10 billion milestone reached in April 2009.

Game designer Jane McGonigal recalls with awe the community effort that went into that Great War, citing it as a transcendent example of the fundamental human desire to work together and to become a part of something bigger than the self.

Bungie maintained a collective history of the Great War in the form of “personal service records” that memorialized each player’s contributions – medals, battle statistics, campaign maps and more.

The archive beggars comprehension: According to Bungie, its servers handled 1.4 petabytes of data requests by players in one nine-month stretch. McGonigal notes, by way of comparison, that everything ever written by humans in all of recorded history amounts to 50 petabytes of data.

Gamification versus gameful design

If you’re mystified by the behavior of these gamers, you’re not alone.

Over the past decade, researchers across a range of fields have marveled at the dedication of gamers like Gibson and Niftski, who commit themselves without complaint to what some might see as punishing, pointless and physically grueling labor.

How could this level of dedication be applied to more “productive” endeavors, they wondered, like education, taxes or exercise?

From this research, an industry centered on the “gamification” of work, life and learning emerged. It giddily promised to change people’s behaviors through the use of extrinsic motivators borrowed from the gaming community: badges, achievements, community scorekeeping.

The concept caught fire, spreading everywhere from early childhood education to the fast-food industry.

Many game designers have reacted to this trend like Robert Oppenheimer at the close of the eponymous movie – aghast that their beautiful work was used, for instance, to pressure Disneyland Resort laborers to load laundry and press linens at anxiously hectic speeds.

Arguing that the gamification trend misses entirely the magic of gaming, game designers have instead started promoting the concept of “gameful design.” Where gamification focuses on useful outcomes, gameful design focuses on fulfilling experiences.

Gameful design prioritizes intrinsic motivation over extrinsic incentives. It embraces design elements that promote social connection, creativity, a sense of autonomy – and, ultimately, the sheer joy of mastery.

When I think of Niftski’s meltdown after his record speedrun – and Gibson’s, who also began hyperventilating in shock and almost passed out – I think of my own children.

I wish for them such moments of ecstatic, prideful accomplishment in a world that sometimes seems starved of joy.

About the Author:

James Dawes, Professor of English, Macalester College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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