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War in the Middle East made the case for renewables – what’s happening in each country tells a harder story

The oil-dependent world is in crisis. Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – through which more than a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas flow – is at a virtual standstill. Oil prices have climbed, briefly topping US$119 a barrel.

The largest release of oil from countries’ strategic reserves in history is under way, in an effort to ease prices. But even so, billions of people are dealing with surging energy prices and spiking food and fertilizer costs. Governments are scrambling for alternatives, too. To reduce energy demand, Sri Lanka has declared every Wednesday a holiday for public officials, Myanmar is limiting private vehicle use to every other day, and Bangladeshi colleges have canceled classes.

Leaders of South Korea and the European Commission have used the current energy crisis to call for accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels and toward homegrown renewable sources. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres put it plainly in a March 10, 2026, social media post: “There are no price spikes for sunlight and no embargoes on the wind.”

I grew up in a coal-mining town in Turkey. I now study energy transitions across the Middle East and North Africa in a research project I co-lead at Harvard University. I have seen that a country’s desire to increase renewable energy is not the same as a plan to do so.

The very region embroiled in this war reveals that there is not a linear shift from fossil fuels to renewable sources. Rather, there are distinct trajectories, driven by energy dependence, fiscal pressures, governance and stability. Disruption at the Strait of Hormuz does not mean the same thing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as it does in Ankara, Turkey, or Baghdad, Iraq.

The petrostates hedging both sides

For Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, this crisis is a warning dressed as a windfall.

Oil prices have surged, which in theory means higher revenues. But the very infrastructure that produces and delivers that wealth is under direct attack. Iran has targeted oil refineries and shipment centers across the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz closure is simultaneously choking off their ability to get product to market, exposing how vulnerable the infrastructure of fossil fuel wealth can be.

All three countries have also committed to boosting renewable energy production. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the government aims for renewable energy sources to account for 50% of electricity generation by 2030, up from just 3% at the end of 2023.

Saudi Arabia’s biggest group of clean energy companies has pledged to spend $17 billion on solar and wind – across all their projects, spread out over several years.

But those efforts sit alongside vastly larger investments in fossil fuel production. In 2025 alone, the country’s nationally owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, spent $52.2 billion building new oil and gas infrastructure.

This is not a contradiction. It is a strategy built on the assumption that the world will keep buying fossil fuels for decades to come. The current crisis reinforces that assumption, but it also exposes its vulnerability: As war drives up oil prices, every oil-importing country is feeling the cost of continuing oil dependence. And every stranded export proves the energy transition can’t wait.

Price shock and necessity

Energy-importing countries such as Jordan, Morocco and Turkey are investing in renewable energy for a different reason: Fossil fuel dependence is bankrupting them.

Turkey imports over 70% of its fossil fuels, including virtually all of its natural gas, 17% of which comes from Iran. Natural gas accounts for less than a fifth of electricity generation, but it is the backbone of the country’s heating and industrial sectors and a major concern if supply falters. Turkey’s energy import bill is climbing at a time when the economy is already under strain from rising borrowing costs and weakening currency value.

Jordan, which historically has imported over 90% of its energy, faces similar pressure.

But these countries would be in far worse positions had they not already been investing in alternatives.

More than half of Turkey’s installed electricity capacity now comes from renewable energy sources. Morocco built one of the world’s largest concentrated solar facilities, and renewable sources now supply 25% of the country’s electricity. Similarly, Jordan has gone from virtually no renewable electricity to renewable sources providing more than a quarter of its power in roughly a decade.

The current war has vindicated their investments in renewable energy – though the vindication has limits. The same crisis that proves the value of renewable energy investment also raises inflation, tightens credit and strains the very public finances these countries need to keep building.

Every kilowatt-hour generated by a Turkish wind turbine or a Moroccan solar panel is one that does not depend on a tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But the financial pressure means building the next renewable generating project just got harder.

Crisis upon crisis

Then there are countries where this war lands on top of existing emergencies.

Iraq, the second-largest oil producer in the region and in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, depends on Iranian gas imports to generate much of its electricity – a supply line now directly threatened by the war. Oil exports through the southern port of Basra, on the Persian Gulf, fund roughly 90% of Iraq’s government revenue. If those revenues are disrupted, the government may be unable to function. Iraq already suffers chronic electricity shortages and has virtually no renewable energy capacity to fall back on.

In Yemen, Libya and Syria, energy infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed by years of conflict. These countries import fuel at global prices to run generators and keep hospitals lit. Every dollar added to the price of oil makes that harder. For them, this war is not pointing out reasons to shift to renewable sources: It is threatening energy access itself.

An international challenge

In November 2026, the U.N.’s annual climate summit comes to the region at the center of this crisis, with Turkey as host.

The war in the Middle East has made a powerful case for the economic, political and humanitarian benefits of transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. But it has also exposed something the global conversation consistently misses: Different countries are heading in different directions, based on their own circumstances, many of which predate this war.

Understanding those paths matters because it reveals what countries’ promises cannot: where the real barriers are, where the incentives already exist, and where support would make a difference – before the next disruption hits. In my view, this war has helped win the argument about whether to shift to renewable energy, but it has also highlighted a harder question: What does it actually take to build those sources, country by country?

About the Author:

Ezgi Canpolat, Visiting Postdoctoral Scholar, Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Harvard University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

01 Apr

A Major Currency Event is Unfolding

Source: Barry Dawes (3/31/26)

With Operation Epic Fury still on everyone’s minds, Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities shares his thoughts on the market and where currencies are headed.

Epic Fury is still the focus and the implications are that a long war with boots on the ground will be endless and energy prices will strangle the world economy.

But it probably won’t run that way.

There is another government working in Iran that let 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, the UAE is moving to reclaim three islands after the November 1971 Seizure (or Occupation) of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs.

Change in control here could also change the control of the flow of tankers in the Strait.

The IRGC is now severely weakened and as an invading Terrorist government it is soon likely to be overthrown by the 55m Persians (60% of a 90million population).

Rear guard actions from an ever-dwindling IRGC are likely to just fizzle out.

No boots on the ground for this one.

Treasury Secretary Bessent says >400m bbls of oil are available in floating and other storage to ease pressures.

Oil was looking toppy in Friday’s US markets, and although it is higher today in Asian trading, let’s see where it settles overnight.

Gold

Still doesn’t look like time for a reversal.

Oversold, but the technicals for a reversal are not quite there.

Did gold complete a `C’ Wave as the end of the correction to mark the end of Wave 4?

The gold bulls think so.

So now off to wave 5 and a new high.

This is now the most widely accepted view in the market.

But if it does, it WILL then mark the end of this bull market.

So that is probably not the most likely outcome.

Do keep in mind it is just possible every rally will be sold into because so many late entrants in gold are underwater.

So just let the markets tell us what the next move is.

But also watch the currencies as well as noted below.

Silver

The silver squeeze doesn’t seem to have eventuated.

Silver and silver stocks are just having spike highs.

Gold Stocks

Spike highs here, too, in the long-term charts.

It’s hard to imagine new surges with the long-term so strongly overbought.

These indices need to turn up quickly, or they will become continuation patterns and not reversal patterns.

Individual stocks aren’t showing constructive reversal patterns.

No high volume in the right places.

ASX Gold Index

The ASX Gold Index has 55 stocks again.

Last time it had this many was in 2011.

Was down to sub 20 in 2014.

There was a big volume and value on March 20, but less in the low of March 23, and steadily lower each day since.

Peak volume was on March 20, but the low was on March 23.

Even more concerning is that transactions from October 1, 2025, to February 28, 2026, totalling AU$91.6bn and 33.3bn shares are all in losing positions at today’s price level.

This is a major overhang.

Volume needs to pick up soon.

Except TOK, of course.

Currencies

European currencies and the Yen are heading much lower.

These falling currencies won’t help the gold bull case.

Energy importers are going to suffer.

The Yen is very close to the mid-2024 low, and after that, it is just a 25% fall in a short time.

The Euro failed to break above its 50 year uptrend and has turned down to fall below parity and probably thereafter to its demise.

NATO is indeed a paper tiger, and Western Europe will be left defenceless.

High taxes, big debts, no oil or gas, mass immigration, and tyrannical bureaucrats in charge.

The EU can’t possibly hold together for much longer.

The GB Pound failed to break long-term resistance and is now heading down.

The SF also failed to break higher and regain strength above its 50-year uptrend.

Upsloping wedge says heading back to parity.

Stupidity and arrogance are leaving Western Europe increasingly irrelevant to the world economy of the decades ahead.

And there are some other currencies to watch.

This one does not look good either. It could break US$0.70.

The Chinese Yuan looks vulnerable to a downdraft as well.

US Dollar

The Australian Dollar

The AU$ has made important breakouts many other currencies.

These are very positive factors in the outlook for the next decade.

Head the markets.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Pan American Silver Corp., Barrick Mining Corp., and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
Barry Dawes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: TOK. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
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Forex and Currency News Opinions

01 Apr

From youth bulges to graying societies: The demographic dynamics that are upending the world

By John Rennie Short, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Government-shaking protests in Bangladesh, Iran, Nepal and Sri Lanka – to name a few – have all in recent years been linked to what demographers call a “youth bulge.” Meanwhile, the economic slowdown in China and ballooning public debt in the United States are in part due to the two powers’ aging populations. In contrast, recent economic growth in Brazil, India and Vietnam reflects a “demographic dividend” of the economically active.

Demographic trends are fueling some of the events reshaping the world. But what exactly are these age-related phenomena, and why are they having such an impact now? I explored these issues in depth in my 2024 book “Demography and the Making of the Modern World.”

Below is a rundown on some of the main demographic dynamics that are changing the world.

Young populations

Having a high proportion of a population age 14 and under is something generally found in poorer countries, and it usually means a huge demographic drag on economic performance.

We see this in Angola, Niger and Somalia, all of which have between 45% and 50% in that age group — compared to around 17% in the United States.

Having such a large proportion of society in their early childhood means fewer workers are supporting a vast number of citizens not in the workforce – and that leads to reduced savings rates and slower economic growth.

Countries still at this early stage of the demographic transition from high to low birth rates often have limited economic opportunities.

The youth bulge

Baby booms, the result of high fertility rates, are inevitably followed by a “youth bulge.” This is defined as a country with a larger than average proportion of people ages 15 to 29.

This bulge is linked to an increase in political instability and the possibility of increased political violence.

Research has found that countries with more than 60% of their population under 30 are four times more likely to experience outbreaks of civil conflict.

So it is of little surprise that countries that have experienced mass political protests of late have a significant youth bulge. In Bangladesh, which saw its government toppled by mass protests in 2024, 53% of the population is under 30. Iran, where major protests in January were brutally repressed, has between 50% and 60% under 30. And in Sri Lanka, the site of major protests in 2022, 48% of the population is under 30.

This isn’t an entirely new phenomenon. The Arab Spring uprisings of 2011-12 owe much of their origin to a youth bulge in the Middle East. At the time, the portion of the population under 30 in Egypt, one of the epicenters of the uprising, was 60%-65%.

When economies cannot create enough jobs for a large youth cohort, unemployment among educated young people can cause widespread frustration and a sense of political marginalization, which can sometimes turn into violent methods to effect change.

Societies with high percentages of young people, both under 15 or in places with a youth bulge, can have other serious global knock-on effects. For example, while there are many reasons behind new immigration flows, an underlying driver of departures – from Africa and the Middle East in particular – is a lack of opportunity at home and the promise of better opportunities abroad for this burgeoning population.

The demographic dividend

As youthful countries age, a phenomenon called a “demographic dividend” can occur. That’s when a higher proportion of people in the more economically active 15-64 age group emerges.

From 1970 to 2000, the rapid economic growth of East Asian economies, Western Europe and the U.S. was tied to this demographic dividend.

Today, countries with demographic dividends such as Vietnam, with 70% of the population ages 15-64, have the opportunity for impressive growth rates.

And while sub-Saharan Africa has many problems now, partly as a result of a large population under 15, it can look forward to the potential of a huge demographic dividend in the future.

The aging population

The window of opportunity created by the demographic dividend does not last forever. As longer life expectancy kicks in, so too does the population age.

China has now aged out of its dividend, and Brazil’s is coming to an end. In China, the population over 65 will reach 28% by 2040 – more than double what it was just 15 years ago.

In super-aged countries, such as Japan and Italy, the 65-and-over population now accounts for 25%-30% of the total population.

And that can be a huge problem.

A graying population can dampen economic growth. In the U.S., people over 65 are the fastest-growing cohort, and they tend to be high-propensity voters who pressure the government to extend retirement benefits, leading to a massive flow of wealth transfer from the shrinking working population to the expanding number of retirees. In 1950, there were 16.5 workers for every beneficiary of Social Security in the United States. By 2023, this figure had fallen to 2.7 workers per beneficiary.

A second demographic dividend can occur if an aging population has enough savings and asset accumulation to pass on to younger generations. But this wealth transfer can increase inequality, as those who receive substantial inheritance will be better positioned than those who do not.

In most graying societies, there are often acrimonious debates about how governments should pay for the benefits for an increasingly elderly population from the wages of a reduced working-age population.

Solutions such as increasing retirement age, reducing benefits or imposing higher taxes come with political costs. President Emmanuel Macron’s government in France, for example, has been periodically threatened by popular protest against cuts in social welfare, especially retirement benefits.

At the latter stages of the transition, aging richer countries now require workers from overseas – but are coming up against a nativist backlash. A combination of slowing economies and new streams of immigrants are creating a volatile politics conducive to the rise of authoritarianism and xenophobia. In this way, the rise of a populist nationalism in the U.S. and across Europe is linked to an increasingly aging population.

The shrinking world

As birth rates fall, the shrinking of a nation’s population is often worrisome for political elites, who tend to see a large population as a source of power.

It explains the official encouragement of higher birth rates in China and Russia through pronatal policies such as tax breaks and fiscal incentives. Even the U.S. administration has mused how to increase birth rates.

But governments have little power when it comes to encouraging women to have more children.

Population size can influence geopolitical rivalries. India is in the fortunate position of a demographic dividend that may last for several more decades. By 2100, the population of India is estimated to be roughly 1.5 billion; China’s is forecast to be 800 million. And that could change the dynamic between the two longtime rivals.

Meanwhile, Russia’s population continues to fall due to very low birth rates. This population crisis feeds into a post-imperial syndrome, where the decline of empire and power status invokes a sense of loss of self-importance that gives rise to resentment and an unwavering commitment to retain great power status.

How governments and societies adapt to population change is key: Demographic dividends can be squandered and aging populations can enrich societies, if played right. Demography is undoubtedly a vital force in contemporary events – but it is also not a predetermined destiny.

About the Author:

John Rennie Short, Professor Emeritus of Public Policy, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

31 Mar

How polling failures, gambling legalization and political gridlock paved the way for the explosive rise of prediction markets

By Parker Bach, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Though prediction markets have been legal in the U.S. for less than 18 months, they can’t stop making news and making money.

On prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, users can stake real money on just about anything, from the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election to when Taylor Swift will get married.

But this isn’t simple entertainment: In theory, these wagers serve as a means of collecting the public’s insights into the future.

That’s why you may have seen CNN’s pundits casually mention Kalshi’s election odds for the 2026 primaries, or watched CBS offer real-time Polymarket projections of which actors would win awards during the Golden Globes.

Existing research on the principles and history of prediction markets suggests they can be a valuable way of pooling collective knowledge about the future.

But as researchers like me, journalists and legislators race to understand the impact these markets are having on society and politics, several questions have emerged about the regulation of these platforms and their forecasting abilities.

The what and why of prediction markets

In practice, prediction markets are quite simple.

Each market offers what are known as “event contracts” on whether some future outcome will occur. Each contract costs between 1 and 99 cents, paying out US$1 if the event occurs or nothing if it does not.

Similar to sports betting, purchasing a contract represents a wager. There are higher returns for positions on outcomes deemed less likely. Like in the stock market, a trader can buy and sell contracts over time, as odds – and thus prices – fluctuate.

At the time of writing, Kalshi traders put the odds of the passage of the SAVE Act, legislation centered on requiring proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote, at about 10%. So each contract for this outcome costs 10 cents. If I think the act is more likely to pass than that, I could purchase some “shares” and sell them at a higher price if the odds go up in the future. If I hold them and the bill ultimately becomes law, I would receive a return that’s 10 times what I originally paid.

Two theories support the idea that prediction markets should excel at forecasting: the wisdom of crowds and the efficient market hypothesis.

First described over a century ago, the wisdom of crowds refers to the idea that the median judgment of a large, diverse group of people operating independently is often more accurate than that of a single expert.

A related argument appears in the efficient market hypothesis, which emerged in the mid-20th century among economists who championed free markets. It holds that prices encode all available information, reflecting the collective judgments of profit-seeking sellers and deal-seeking buyers.

At their best, then, prediction markets aggregate collective intelligence to weigh the likelihood of future events.

Polling’s credibility crisis creates an opening

Gambling on the outcomes of the day’s events has a long history. In 16th-century Italy, gamblers could wager on the election of civic magistrates and the outcome of papal conclaves. And from the 1880s to 1930s, New York City was the hub of political wagering, which sometimes exceeded the stock market in daily volume.

Reporting on bets ahead of the 1924 presidential election, The New York Times observed, “It is an old axiom in the financial district that Wall Street betting odds are ‘never wrong.’”

However, the rise of scientific polling and legal crackdowns on political wagering forced prediction markets to fade to the background.

That changed in 2024.

One month before the U.S. elections, a federal court granted the prediction market startup Kalshi permission to legally operate prediction markets concerning U.S. election results.

Around the same time, Elon Musk posted on X about Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in prediction market odds. Trump followed suit. Kalshi put up billboards with live election odds in Times Square. Users and dollars flowed in. By election day, a volume of over $500 million in presidential election bets had been traded on Kalshi alone. Polymarket featured over $3.6 billion more in volume.

Political polling, meanwhile, was facing a crisis of confidence. Response rates had been declining for decades, and Trump voters had been undercounted in 2016 and 2020.

The polls forecast the presidential election as a coin toss. The prediction market, meanwhile, favored Trump at roughly 60% odds to win.

After Trump won at the ballot box, prediction markets declared victory over polling as the new, trustworthy forecasters of public opinion.

The utility of the markets

Over the past 50 years, journalists have increasingly incorporated quantitative data in their reporting, and audiences have come to expect political forecasting as part of their news diet.

With polling experiencing a crisis of confidence, prediction markets have become an increasingly attractive way for journalists to offer a data-backed snapshot of public beliefs.

Prediction markets have other advantages over polls for journalists. They respond to events in real time, and they’re free to access. Polls, meanwhile, take time and money to administer. They provide forecasts for political outcomes that go beyond elections – such as Cabinet nominations and Supreme Court decisions – which are usually outside the purview of polling.

In recent months, Kalshi and Polymarket have inked several partnership deals with news outlets. There’s a symbiotic relationship at play: Prediction markets provide journalists with data to report and discuss. Journalists, in turn, legitimize prediction markets by citing them as a trusted source.

Prediction markets have historically performed well on elections. Whether they’re more accurate than polls on other kinds of questions is still up for debate.

If traders behave purely rationally, in the economic sense, they might flit between positions to maximize profit based on new information, personal biases aside.

But when wagering on elections, most traders have seemed to consistently buy and sell only one position, rather than switching between them. They may think they’re trading rationally while exhibiting a “wishful thinking” bias. Or, like many sports bettors, they may be wagering out of fandom or for entertainment.

All of these scenarios could undercut the accuracy of these markets.

The elephant in the room

Many journalists are embracing the data even as their news outlets run stories about concerns over insider trading in predictive markets. Because the outcome of events is often determined by human actors, those privy to certain plans – say, a looming ceasefire deal – would have access to information not available to the public and could profit handsomely off that information.

Two anonymous accounts made hundreds of thousands of dollars predicting the downfall of Nicolás Maduro and betting on the toppling of Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, with traders putting their money down just before the U.S. took military action. This timing has raised some eyebrows.

Kalshi prohibits insider trading, and in early 2026 it fined and suspended two high-profile traders who were using inside information.

Likely in response to bad press and statements from lawmakers seeking to regulate the platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket also announced new insider trading rules on March 23, 2026, centered on politics and sports.

The legal mechanisms for enforcing these rules, however, are less clear. SEC Rule 10b5-1 prohibits trading securities on the basis of material nonpublic information.

But event contracts are not governed by the SEC. They’re under the purview of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a much smaller agency. As things stand, the small agency has too few employees to regulate the legality of specific event contracts, which are governed by the Commodity Exchange Act. Kalshi and certain other prediction market platforms are instead given the latitude to self-certify the legality of each contract.

Any efforts to meaningfully regulate insider trading would, in my view, require clear rules and viable enforcement mechanisms.

From participation to profit

As I conduct my research, I often consider what the booming popularity of prediction markets says about American culture and politics in 2026.

In 1969, sociologist Erving Goffman theorized that Americans’ attraction to gambling stemmed from a need for “action” in an increasingly bureaucratized society. Similarly, studies have suggested that betting on sports makes fans feel like they’re participating, not just observing.

Congress is less productive than ever. Most Americans feel they have little influence over the workings of the government, with many looking on helplessly as democratic guardrails have been dismantled.

Who knows what will happen in the coming year. The filibuster might be weakened, or the U.S. could invade Cuba. Most Americans will have little say. But prediction markets at least offer the chance to make a buck off the action.

About the Author:

Parker Bach, PhD Student in Media and Communication, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

29 Mar

Euro Large Speculator Bets dropped to 55-Week Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (7,093 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (5,616 contracts), the Japanese Yen (4,974 contracts), the Australian Dollar (1,811 contracts) and Bitcoin (333 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-11,853 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,488 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,949 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,884 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-76 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-69 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculator Bets dropped to 55-Week Low

Highlighting the Currencies speculator positions this week was the continued drop in the Euro speculator bullish position. It has been quite a turnaround for the Euro speculator positions in recent weeks as speculators pushed the Euro net positions to an all-time top ten high bullish position on February 10th at a total of 180,305 net contracts. Since that recent high, Euro positions have fallen for six consecutive weeks and by -171,026 net contracts over that time period. This has brought the overall speculator position down from 180,305 bullish positions to this week’s net contract level of just 9,279 contracts. Overall, the Euro position has continuously been in a bullish standing since March 11th of 2025. The Euro price has now fallen below the 1.1600 exchange rate in the Currency markets and has now declined in six out of the last nine weeks and currently trades at the 1.1556 area. The Euro traded as high as 1.2110 late in January before the Iran war broke out and has now come back towards the 1.1500 major support level.

The Canadian Dollar speculative position this week fell by approximately -2,500 contracts and has now fallen three out of the past four weeks. This negative sentiment has brought the Canadian Dollar speculator position back into a small bearish position of -1,602 net positions this week. The Canadian Dollar contracts had been in a strong bearish position for the past few years before seeing a turnaround and rising into bullish bets in early February. That had pushed the bullish position up to as high as +36,159 contracts on March 10th. However, since then, the speculative position has fallen off and culminated in a bearish level this week. The Canadian Dollar in the Currency markets has been on the decline as well and has fallen for three consecutive weeks against the US Dollar. The Canadian Dollar recently bounced to lower levels off the 200-week moving average (CAD traded as high as 0.7431 in late January) and has now trended lower to this week’s close at 0.7225.

The Mexican Peso position rebounded this week with a gain of over 5,500 net contracts. This breaks an eight-week losing streak that had seen the overall net position fall from 103,114 net contracts on January 27th to a total of 68,460 net contracts on March 17th. This week’s gain brings the overall net position back above +70,000 contracts to +74,076 net contracts. Overall, the Mexican Peso has pretty much seen strong bullish speculator positions dating back to March of 2023 through the current period (save for a small bullish positioning streak in late 2024). The Mexican Peso in the Currency markets this week, although, has continued on a decline for five consecutive weeks against the US Dollar. However, overall, the Mexican Peso has been higher against the US Dollar since the beginning of 2025 by approximately 15%.

The US Dollar Index contracts were virtually unchanged this week with a small decline of just 76 contracts. Overall, the US Dollar net positioning has now been in a consecutive bullish position for two weeks straight after seeing a large +9,575 net contract change on March 17th. The US Dollar Index in the Currency markets has now been higher in four out of the past six weeks and trades right around the major 100.00 level, which may determine the currency’s direction in the near and medium term. The US Dollar Index has now rallied by approximately 5% since hitting a low near 95.36 in January.

Brazilian Real and US Dollar Index lead weekly Currency Market Price Performance

The Currency Market Price Performance this week was heavily skewed towards the downside as only two currencies had positive returns over the past five days, while nine currencies had lower prices on the week. The Brazilian Real led the way with a 0.95% increase on the week and was followed by the US Dollar Index, which improved by 0.58%.

On the downside, the biggest loser on the week was Bitcoin, which fell by -5.78%, with the next largest decliner on the week being the Australian Dollar, which fell by -2.14%. The Peso, the Mexican Peso, declined by -1.57%, followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by -1.45%. The Swiss Franc was lower by -1.3%. The Canadian Dollar dipped by -1.22%, while the Japanese Yen decreased by -0.66%. The British Pound Sterling was lower by -0.59%, and the Euro rounds out the decliners on the week with a -0.53% dip.

Over the past 30 days, all of the Currency markets were lower except for the US Dollar Index, which is up by 3.80% over that time period.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (84 percent), Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the US Dollar Index (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (32 percent), the Japanese Yen (33 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (53.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.1 percent)
EuroFX (32.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (36.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (14.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (83.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (84.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (99.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (34.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (38.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (53.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.8 percent)
Bitcoin (97.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.3 percent)

Swiss Franc & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and Bitcoin (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (21 percent), the Brazilian Real (13 percent) and the US Dollar Index (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-14 percent), Japanese Yen (-12 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (11.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (12.3 percent)
EuroFX (-65.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-54.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-13.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-21.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-0.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (24.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-15.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (12.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.4 percent)
Bitcoin (23.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -76 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	29.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	42.3	5.3
– Net Position:	3,617	-4,615	998
– Gross Longs:	20,457	10,652	2,903
– Gross Shorts:	16,840	15,267	1,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.9	44.0	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-18.3	41.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	58.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	64.2	6.2
– Net Position:	9,279	-46,758	37,479
– Gross Longs:	200,025	444,118	84,972
– Gross Shorts:	190,746	490,876	47,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.3	65.3	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-65.1	64.4	-38.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	67.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	42.3	11.9
– Net Position:	-58,422	61,187	-2,765
– Gross Longs:	46,459	162,128	25,772
– Gross Shorts:	104,881	100,941	28,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	84.1	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	18.0	-35.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	51.0	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	33.4	11.1
– Net Position:	-62,806	57,901	4,905
– Gross Longs:	98,271	167,443	41,460
– Gross Shorts:	161,077	109,542	36,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	65.5	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.4	-3.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	72.6	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	31.6	22.1
– Net Position:	-27,097	31,364	-4,267
– Gross Longs:	7,831	55,554	12,634
– Gross Shorts:	34,928	24,190	16,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	50.6	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-10.3	-37.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	44.2	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.0	44.9	15.7
– Net Position:	-1,602	-1,371	2,973
– Gross Longs:	62,382	80,788	31,593
– Gross Shorts:	63,984	82,159	28,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.8	17.3	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	7.6	-11.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 70,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	31.1	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	67.7	6.4
– Net Position:	70,872	-94,367	23,495
– Gross Longs:	132,629	80,063	39,940
– Gross Shorts:	61,757	174,430	16,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-16.6	-5.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	77.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.2	34.9	6.3
– Net Position:	-27,006	27,694	-688
– Gross Longs:	10,847	50,393	3,403
– Gross Shorts:	37,853	22,699	4,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	65.3	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-6.7	-25.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.3	40.7	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	87.0	1.6
– Net Position:	74,076	-77,232	3,156
– Gross Longs:	92,246	67,758	5,899
– Gross Shorts:	18,170	144,990	2,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	45.8	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	8.1	-5.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 49,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.6	21.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	69.8	0.9
– Net Position:	49,248	-53,067	3,819
– Gross Longs:	75,354	23,593	4,777
– Gross Shorts:	26,106	76,660	958
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	5.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	23.4	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.9	-5.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.2	1.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.1	9.3	5.4
– Net Position:	2,106	-1,949	-157
– Gross Longs:	15,861	224	1,097
– Gross Shorts:	13,755	2,173	1,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	13.2	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-18.5	-13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

29 Mar

Speculator Extremes: AUD, Steel & Soybean Oil lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday March 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position once again comes in at the top of the extreme standing this week with a maximum 100% score out of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the strength score was a gain of 21% this week while the speculator net position registered a total of 70,872 net contracts this week after a weekly change of 1,811 contracts.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in tied as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Steel speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a change of 14 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 14,462 net contracts this week with a gain of 595 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Soybean Oil speculator level resides at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 33 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 117,135 net contracts this week with a dip by -2,962 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 23 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 2,106 net contracts this week with an increase of 333 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as this market sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a jump by 51 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 127,071 net contracts this week with a rise of 24,533 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 2-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -31 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -1,638,179 net contracts this week with a decline of -155,512 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Cocoa speculator level at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip of -1 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -20,116 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,257 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The GBP speculator level resides at a 15 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -14 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -58,422 net contracts this week with a gain of 7,093 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the Natural Gas speculator level is at a 22 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was unchanged this week while the speculator position was -172,607 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,422 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

Next, the Silver speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the Silver speculator level is at a 28 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain of 3 percentage points this week and the speculator position was 24,673 net contracts this week with a small boost of 2,792 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

27 Mar

Two verdicts in two days: How American courts are rewriting the rules for Big Tech and children

By Carolina Rossini, UMass Amherst Within 48 hours, the legal landscape governing social media and children shifted in ways that will take years to fully understand and verify.

On March 24, 2026, a Santa Fe jury ordered Meta to pay US$375 million for violating New Mexico’s consumer protection laws. The next day, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google’s YouTube negligent in the design of their platforms, awarding almost $6 million in damages to a single plaintiff.

The dollar figures are drawing headlines, but a $375 million penalty against a company worth $1.5 trillion is a rounding error. The award is less than 2% of Meta’s $22.8 billion net income in 2025. Meta’s stock rose 5% on the day of the New Mexico verdict, indicating how the market assessed the effect of the penalty on the company.

Fines without structural change are more akin to licensing fees than accountability. As a technology policy and law scholar, I believe the question of whether these verdicts will produce real changes to the products that millions of children use every day is more consequential than the jury awards.

The answer is not yet, and not automatically. A financial penalty does not rewrite a single line of code, remove an algorithm or place a safety engineer in a role that was eliminated to protect a quarterly earnings report. Meta and Google have signaled they will appeal, with First Amendment challenges to the product-design theory the likely central battleground.

The companies’ lawyers are likely to argue, with some justification, that the science linking the design of platforms to mental health harm remains contested, and that the companies have already implemented safety measures. In the meantime, Instagram, Facebook anf YouTube will continue to operate exactly as they did before the verdicts.

The verdicts against Meta pave the way for hundreds or even thousands of similar cases.

Consumer protection

Most coverage framing the New Mexico verdict casts it as a child safety case. It is that, but it also presents a more technically significant dimension: a consumer protection claim grounded in allegations of corporate deception. New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez did not sue Meta for what users posted, but instead sued Meta for its false statements about its own platform safety, employing a novel legal approach.

For three decades, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act has shielded internet platforms from liability for content generated by their users. Courts have interpreted Section 230 immunity broadly, and many earlier attempts to hold platforms accountable for child harm have foundered on it.

The New Mexico complaint, filed in December 2023, was drafted with explicit awareness of this obstacle. It asked a single question: Did Meta knowingly lie to New Mexico consumers about the safety of its products?

The jury’s answer was yes, on all counts, and its verdict rested on three distinct legal theories under New Mexico’s Unfair Practices Act.

The first was straightforward deception: Meta’s public statements, ranging from CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s congressional testimony claiming research about the platform’s addictiveness was inconclusive to parental guidance materials that omitted known risks of grooming and sexual exploitation, qualify as representations made in connection with a commercial transaction.

Users pay for Meta’s platforms not with money but with their data, which Meta then converts into advertising revenue. New Mexico successfully argued that this data-for-services exchange constitutes commerce under the state’s consumer protection statute, and that misrepresentations made within it are actionable regardless of Section 230.

The second theory was unfair practice, or conduct offensive to public policy, even if not technically deceptive. Here, the evidence centered on what Meta’s own engineers and executives knew and then ignored.

Internal documents showed repeated warnings. These alarm bells centered around child sexual abuse material proliferating on the platforms, about algorithms that amplified harmful content because it generated engagement, and about age verification systems that were essentially cosmetic. The company overrode those warnings for commercial reasons.

The jury was shown a specific sequence: Meta executives requested staffing to address platform harms, Zuckerberg declined, and the company continued to publicly represent its safety efforts as adequate.

The third theory was unconscionability: taking advantage of consumers who lacked the capacity to protect themselves. Children are the clearest possible case. Children cannot evaluate terms of service, cannot negotiate platform architecture, and cannot assess the neurological implications of engagement-maximizing design. Meta had comprehensive internal research documenting these vulnerabilities and chose to ignore rather than mitigate them.

Bellwether on addictiveness

The Los Angeles case, which concluded on March 25, tested a different theory. It was a personal injury trial rather than a government enforcement action.

The plaintiff, identified in court as KGM, is a 20-year-old woman who began using YouTube at age 6 and Instagram at age 9. Her lawyers argued that the platforms’ deliberate design choices such as infinite scroll, autoplay video and engagement-based recommendation algorithms were the causes of her addiction, depression and self-harm.

The jury found both Meta and YouTube negligent in the design of their platforms and found that each company’s negligence was a substantial factor in causing harm to KGM. Meta bears 70% of the liability; YouTube 30%. The individual $3 million compensatory award is modest. The punitive damages phase, still to come, will be calculated against each company’s net worth and is likely to produce a very different number.

Beyond the general precedent, this case matters because it is a bellwether. It was selected from a consolidated group of hundreds of similar lawsuits to test whether a product-design theory of liability could survive a jury trial, and it did. That finding has immediate and concrete implications: Each of those plaintiffs now litigates on a stronger footing, and if the damages awarded to KGM are even partially scaled across similar cases, the total financial exposure for Meta and YouTube moves from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars.

More importantly, the bellwether verdict signals to every other plaintiff, attorney and state attorney general that this legal pathway is viable, and to every platform that the courtroom is no longer a safe harbor. The legal strategy established that negligence claims against platform design are viable in California courts.

Public nuisance

Beginning May 4, 2026, Judge Bryan Biedscheid in the New Mexico case is scheduled to hear the public nuisance count without a jury in a bench trial. Public nuisance is a legal doctrine traditionally used to address conditions that harm the general public. This doctrine has been used in concern over contaminated water, lead paint in housing stock and opioid distribution networks.

New Mexico is arguing that Meta’s platform architecture constitutes exactly such a condition. If the judge agrees, the remedy is not a fine. Instead, it is an abatement: a court order requiring Meta to eliminate the harmful condition.

Attorney General Torrez has already been explicit about what he will ask for: real age verification, not a checkbox asking users to confirm they are old enough; algorithm changes; and an independent monitor with authority to oversee compliance. These are structural demands on how the platform operates.

This is where drawing a parallel with Big Tobacco is apt. The tobacco litigation of the 1990s ultimately produced not just financial settlements but the Master Settlement Agreement, which imposed permanent restrictions on marketing practices and funded public health programs for decades. The public nuisance theory in the New Mexico case is designed to produce an analogous structural outcome for social media.

Precedent for tidal wave of cases

The significant effects of two verdicts are about evidence and precedent. For the first time, a jury has examined Meta’s internal documents – emails from engineers warning about self-harm, the rejected safety proposals and Zuckerberg’s personal decisions to prioritize engagement over protection – and returned a verdict that those documents mean precisely what they appear to say.

That finding, and the legal theories that produced it, is now part of the foundation on which 40-plus pending state attorney general cases, thousands of individual lawsuits and a federal trial later this year are likely to be built.

The abatement phase, beginning May 4, may prove more consequential than the dollar amounts. If the judge in the New Mexico case – or any judge in a subsequent case – orders real age verification, algorithm changes and an independent monitor, that would be a true structural change.

About the Author:

Carolina Rossini, Professor of Practice and Director for Program, Public Interest Technology Initiative, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News

25 Mar

Why shadow tankers are the only ships still moving through the Strait of Hormuz

By Charles Edward Gehrke, US Naval War College

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Since the beginning of the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, oil tanker traffic through the world’s most critical oil shipping choke point has collapsed, dropping by more than 90%.

Iran has threatened to destroy any ships, including oil tankers, that pass through the strait from the oil depots of the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the rest of the world. Companies that insure ships against the risks of traveling in war zones are deciding whether to issue coverage on an individual-ship basis. The international body that sets many shipping regulations has told ships’ crews that they have the right to refuse to sail into the area.

As of March 6, more than 400 tankers were stranded in the Persian Gulf, without permission from their owners to move.

But some vessels are still transiting the strait. Most of the ships still moving are those that operate outside the rules.

In maritime circles, these vessels are called the “shadow fleet.” They are vessels that ignore international restrictions on trade with certain countries, violate anti-pollution regulations, smuggle unauthorized goods or don’t want their cargo or activities too closely monitored.

They exist, even in a world filled with electronic tracking, because the world’s oceans aren’t governed the same way the land is. On land, armed personnel closely monitor carefully delineated borders, seeking to force everyone to follow clear rules. But at sea, regulation is almost the opposite. The system that governs international shipping is, at its foundation, voluntary.

The oceans run on trust

The tracking of ships is voluntary. The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea – signed by 167 countries – requires almost every commercial vessel to carry a radio transponder that broadcasts the ship’s identity, position, speed and heading to port authorities, coast guards and commercial tracking networks.

That international agreement, which is enforced by individual countries, requires ships to leave the transponders on and active. But there is no physical mechanism preventing a crew from switching it off or broadcasting a false position.

When a vessel turns off its transponder and goes dark, it doesn’t trigger an alarm at some global maritime headquarters. There is no such headquarters. The ship simply disappears from the map. Every map.

National jurisdiction is a matter of preference, not law. Every vessel sails under the flag of a nation, and that nation is theoretically responsible for regulating and inspecting it. But in practice, a ship’s registration in a particular country is a commercial transaction. Many law-abiding shipping companies make this business decision, but this system leaves an opening for those who seek to skirt the rules.

A ship owned by a shell company in the United Arab Emirates can register under the flag of Cameroon, Palau or Liberia, or any country that may lack the resources or the incentive to conduct real inspections. Even landlocked Mongolia has a registry of oceangoing ships flying its flag.

When a vessel comes under scrutiny from port inspectors or coast guards, it can simply reregister under a different flag. Some registries even offer online registration. If the new registration is fraudulent or the registry doesn’t actually exist, the vessel effectively becomes stateless.

Then there is insurance, which is the closest thing the maritime system has to a real enforcement mechanism. Mainstream insurers, mostly based in London, require vessels to meet safety standards, carry proper documentation and comply with international trade sanctions. A ship without insurance coverage cannot easily enter major ports or secure cargo contracts with reputable firms.
Those restrictions are precisely what froze so many law-abiding ships in the Persian Gulf when war broke out.

But companies can avoid those rules, too. Two-thirds of ships carrying Russian oil – the trade of which is restricted by the U.S. and other countries – reportedly have “unknown” insurance providers, meaning nobody knows whom to call to cover the cleanup costs after a spill or collision. The enforcement mechanism works until ship owners realize they can just opt out of it entirely, using less reputable ports or transferring oil from ship to ship out at sea.

What opting out looks like

The results of this voluntary system can be surreal. In December 2025, the United States seized a sanctioned tanker called the Skipper, which was flying the flag of Guyana – even though that country had never registered it. The vessel was, in legal terms, stateless, sailing under the authority of no nation on Earth.

Another vessel, the Arcusat, went further. Investigative reporting found that it had changed its International Maritime Organization identification number, a unique seven-digit code assigned permanently to every ship. It is the maritime equivalent of scraping the VIN off a car.

Now layer these techniques together. An entity purchases an aging tanker that would otherwise be scrapped. It registers the ship through a shell company, pays for a flag of convenience, carries opaque insurance and switches off its transponder when approaching sensitive waters.

It loads sanctioned oil through a ship-to-ship transfer on the open ocean and delivers its cargo to a buyer who asks no questions. If the vessel attracts attention, it changes its name, reregisters under a different flag and starts over.

According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, approximately 1,100 dark fleet vessels have been identified globally, representing roughly 17% to 18% of all tankers carrying liquid cargo, which is primarily oil.

Why it matters now

The dark fleet did not emerge because the maritime system is broken. It emerged because the system is built on voluntary participation, all theoretically ensured by market forces.

For decades, the system worked not because it forced compliance but rather because opting out was more costly than opting in.

What changed is that international sanctions made compliance ruinously expensive and politically disastrous for some countries. A system built on voluntary participation, it turned out, could be voluntarily left.

If your national economy depends on oil exports, and the compliance system is preventing those exports, you build a parallel system. Iran began doing so in 2018, after sanctions were reimposed as part of negotiations over its nuclear development. Russia dramatically expanded that system in 2022 as restrictions hit in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.

Now, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to aboveboard maritime trade, the only vessels still moving are the ones that ignore the rules.

But the existence of the dark fleet doesn’t mean that the rules of the sea have failed. Rather, it reveals what kind of rules they always were. Illegal oil is the only oil moving in a crisis. In my view, that sends a message to those still playing by the rules: Opting out might be a viable option.

The opinions and views expressed are those of the author alone and do not necessarily represent those of the Department of the Navy or the U.S. Naval War College.

About the Author:

Charles Edward Gehrke, Deputy Division Director of Wargame Design and Adjudication, US Naval War College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

22 Mar

Currency Speculators sharply drop Euro, CAD bets while boosting GBP, CHF & AUD

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by GBP, Swiss Franc, Australian & New Zealand Dollars

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was British Pound (18,682 contracts) with the Swiss Franc (15,879 contracts), the Australian Dollar (14,864 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (14,054 contracts), the US Dollar Index (9,575 contracts) and Bitcoin (471 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-84,012 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-35,273 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-26,393 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-5,351 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-1,711 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators sharply drop Euro, CAD bets while boosting GBP, CHF & AUD

The COT market data for Currencies this week saw a bunch of extremely significant changes in the speculator positioning through Tuesday.

First off, the biggest mover on the week was the Euro, which saw a gigantic drawback in speculative bullish bets by -84,012 contracts. This marks the biggest drawdown for one week in Euro futures history. The Euro position has now fallen for five consecutive weeks, and that has taken off roughly -160,000 contracts from the bullish position, which has now fallen to a paltry +21,132 net contracts this week. This breaks a streak of fifteen consecutive weeks where the net contract position was over 100,000 contracts. In the currency exchange market, the Euro managed to have a gaining week after a couple of strong down weeks and trades right below the psychological 1.1600 resistance level, with support below at the 1.1475 to 1.1500 exchange levels.

Next up, the Canadian Dollar contracts saw a similar shortfall on the week with a -35,273 net contract decline this week. Unlike the Euro, the Canadian Dollar contracts had been ascending over the past weeks – as speculator contracts had risen in seven out of the previous eight weeks and had pushed the net contract position up to a +36,159 net contract position on March 10th. After this week’s sharp decline, the net position is virtually unchanged at a small +886 net speculator position. The CAD price in the currency markets has been treading water without much direction recently with the CAD ranging between 0.7200 and 0.7400 over the past eight weeks.

On the plus side, the British Pound Sterling saw a strong rise this week after declining in the previous five consecutive weeks. This week’s gain by over +18,000 net contracts was the highest weekly gain out of the past three months dating back to December 16th, 2025. However, the British Pound Sterling net position remains bearish. Overall, this currency speculator position has now been in a continuous bearish position for the past 34 weeks, dating back to July 22nd of 2025. In the Foreign Exchange Markets, the British Pound Sterling against the US Dollar saw a modest rise this week for the first time out of the past four weeks and now trades right around the 1.3300 exchange level. The Pound Sterling has recently been retreating after reaching a high in January around the 1.3870 level.

The Swiss Franc saw strong speculator demand this week with a gain of over +15,000 contracts. The Swiss Franc speculator position is usually a safe haven bid, and you would typically think the speculator position would be super strong. But there has been quite a lot of hedging in the Swiss Franc futures markets, so many of the moves are counterintuitive. However, this week obviously saw some safe haven speculator bids. While the Franchas been super strong in the Exchange Markets against the US Dollar, with the price of the Franc up around 17% higher since the beginning of January 2025. Currently, the Franc against the US Dollar trades at the 1.2797 exchange rate and has been as high as 1.3219 in late January.

The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, has been traditionally the anti-safe haven or high beta and usually plummets along with weakened speculator sentiment in uncertain times. However, the Australian Dollar continues to see strong speculator inflows. Speculator positions have gained in 15 out of the past 16 weeks, with an inflow of +153,237 net contracts over that time. This has brought the overall speculator position to a bullish level of +69,061 net contracts. This is the highest level for a standing speculator position since 2017, or a difference of about 441 weeks. The Australian Dollar against the US Dollar in the forex market dipped this week but remains trading right at the important psychological support and resistance level of 0.7000.

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position also saw strong inflows this week with a weekly gain of 14,054 net contracts. The New Zealand Dollar has been somewhat on a different path than the Australian Dollar, as the overall net position has been bearish for the past 35 weeks, dating back to July 15th, 2025. Over that time, we have seen a few record-breaking bearish positions, with December 9th reaching the highest bearish level on record at -56,781 net contracts. Since that all-time bearish position, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position has shed almost 30,000 contracts, and this week leveled the position at -23,057 net contracts. In the Forex Markets, the New Zealand Dollar against the US Dollar has been in a multi-year downtrend, with prices in January hitting the 200-weekly moving average and fading lower and with the NZD trading currently at 0.5840 exchange levels.

Leading the Currencies market price performances was the Euro and British Pound

Seeing the highest weekly price changes this week was the Euro with a 1.35% increase over the last five days. The British Pound Sterling came in second with a 0.90% change, while the New Zealand Dollar saw a 0.89% gain on the week. Next up, the Mexican Peso was higher by 0.62%, followed by the Australian Dollar which rose by 0.56%. The Swiss Franc was also higher by 0.42% on the week. The Japanese Yen managed to see an uptick by 0.28%, while the Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged but edged up by 0.04% on the week.

The Brazilian Real dipped by -0.03%, while the US Dollar Index was lower by -0.79%. Bitcoin saw the biggest shortfall in the week with a -1.80% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (90 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (85 percent), Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the US Dollar Index (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (32 percent), the EuroFX (37 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (39 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (28.3 percent)
EuroFX (36.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (68.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (11.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (32.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (39.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (49.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (17.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (84.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (53.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.1 percent)
Bitcoin (90.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (80.3 percent)

Swiss Franc & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the Australian Dollar (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (16 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-54 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-22 percent), Mexican Peso (-16 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (12.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (-54.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-10.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-21.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-28.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (31.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-0.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (24.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (26.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-15.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-20.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (13.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (23.4 percent)
Bitcoin (16.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,575 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.4	25.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.0	39.2	5.3
– Net Position:	3,693	-4,957	1,264
– Gross Longs:	21,426	8,932	3,132
– Gross Shorts:	17,733	13,889	1,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	43.1	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-17.7	33.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 21,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -84,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	57.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	65.3	6.4
– Net Position:	21,132	-58,433	37,301
– Gross Longs:	212,886	435,130	85,722
– Gross Shorts:	191,754	493,563	48,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.3	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-54.1	54.6	-37.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	70.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	41.2	12.0
– Net Position:	-65,515	70,330	-4,815
– Gross Longs:	44,293	170,509	24,456
– Gross Shorts:	109,808	100,179	29,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	87.6	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	24.7	-30.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -67,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -26,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,387 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	50.2	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	28.8	12.8
– Net Position:	-67,780	70,002	-2,222
– Gross Longs:	106,819	163,975	39,497
– Gross Shorts:	174,599	93,973	41,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	68.6	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	14.0	-18.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	71.8	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	31.9	22.8
– Net Position:	-25,213	29,602	-4,389
– Gross Longs:	8,175	53,236	12,475
– Gross Shorts:	33,388	23,634	16,864
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	47.8	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.4	-15.3	-25.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,159 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	58.2	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	60.8	9.9
– Net Position:	886	-6,206	5,320
– Gross Longs:	66,507	144,314	29,911
– Gross Shorts:	65,621	150,520	24,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.8	15.4	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	0.7	-1.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 69,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	31.5	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	66.8	6.1
– Net Position:	69,061	-93,772	24,711
– Gross Longs:	136,074	83,769	40,933
– Gross Shorts:	67,013	177,541	16,222
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-21.6	5.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	77.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.1	39.7	6.1
– Net Position:	-23,057	23,860	-803
– Gross Longs:	10,998	49,317	3,090
– Gross Shorts:	34,055	25,457	3,893
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	61.0	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.8	-9.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	42.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	85.4	0.6
– Net Position:	68,460	-73,440	4,980
– Gross Longs:	90,997	72,821	5,994
– Gross Shorts:	22,537	146,261	1,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	48.3	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	15.2	-1.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 49,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.9	24.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	77.0	0.9
– Net Position:	49,317	-53,517	4,200
– Gross Longs:	71,255	25,006	5,124
– Gross Shorts:	21,938	78,523	924
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	5.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	23.1	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-13.1	0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.3	1.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.9	9.4	4.9
– Net Position:	1,773	-1,862	89
– Gross Longs:	16,741	379	1,246
– Gross Shorts:	14,968	2,241	1,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.3	15.2	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-19.9	6.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

22 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Australian Dollar, Steel & Soybean Oil lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday March 17th.

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied this week at the top in the extreme standings as the AUD speculator level resides at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 24 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 69,061 net contracts this week with a boost of 14,864 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in tied as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 11 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 13,867 net contracts this week with an increase of 974 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in also tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a jump by 43 percentage points this week as the speculator position registered 120,097 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 18,346 contracts in speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week with the Soybeans speculator level at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled an increase of 35 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 221,066 net contracts this week with a drop of -9,202 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Palladium speculator level sits at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -9 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -185 net contracts this week with a small change of -29 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 2-Year speculator level resides at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -14 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -1,482,667 net contracts this week with a drop of -144,431 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -3 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -17,859 net contracts this week with a small gain by 2,991 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Sugar speculator level resides at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed almost no change this week while the overall speculator position was -207,755 net contracts this week with a small rise of 1,000 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The GBP speculator level is at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip of -22 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -65,515 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 18,682 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

Next, the Natural Gas speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the Natural Gas speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score had a change by -4 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -178,029 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,827 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.