Archive for Opinions – Page 3

29 Apr

You probably wouldn’t notice if an AI chatbot slipped ads into its responses

By Brian Jay Tang, University of Michigan and Kang G. Shin, University of Michigan 

Hundreds of millions of people consult artificial intelligence chatbots on a daily basis for everything from product recommendations to romance, making them a tempting audience to target with potentially below-the-radar advertising. Indeed, our research suggests AI chatbots could easily be used for covert advertising to manipulate their human users.

We are computer scientists who have been tracking AI safety and privacy for several years. In a study we published in an Association for Computing Machinery journal, we found that chatbots trained to embed personalized product ads in replies to queries influenced people’s choices about products. And most participants didn’t recognize that they were being manipulated.

These findings come at a pivotal moment. In 2023, Microsoft started running ads in Bing Chat, now called Copilot. Since then, Google and OpenAI have experimented with advertisements in their own chatbots. Meta has started to send people customized ads on Facebook and Instagram based on their interactions with Meta’s generative AI tools.

The major companies are competing for an edge: In late March, OpenAI lured away Meta’s longtime advertising executive, Dave Dugan, to lead OpenAI’s advertising operations.

Tech companies have made ads part of nearly every large free web service, video channel and social media platform. But the latest AI models could take this practice to a new level of risk for consumers.

People don’t simply use chatbots to search for information and media or to produce content. They turn to the bots for a great variety of tasks, as complex as life advice and emotional support. People are increasingly treating chatbots as companions and therapists, with some users even developing deep relationships with AI.

In these circumstances, people can easily forget that companies ultimately create chatbots to turn a profit. And to that end, AI companies are motivated to thoroughly profile users so ads become more effective and profitable.

A block of text
Researchers used this system prompt for an AI chatbot in an experiment about user reactions to advertising slipped into chatbot dialog.
Proc. ACM Interact. Mob. Wearable Ubiquitous Technol., Vol. 9, No. 4, Article 213., CC BY

Chatbot ads have added power

A single prompt to a chatbot can reveal a lot more about a user than the person might expect.

A 2024 study showed that large language models can infer a wide range of personal data, preferences and even a person’s thinking patterns during routine queries. “Help me write an essay on the history of American fiction” could indicate that the user is a high school student. “Give me recipe suggestions for a quick weeknight dinner” could indicate that the user is a working parent. A single conversation can provide a surprising amount of detail. Over time, a full chat history could create a remarkably rich profile.

To show how this might happen in practice, we built a chatbot that quietly wove ads into its conversations with people, suggesting products and services based on the conversation itself. We asked 179 people to complete everyday online tasks using one of three chatbots: one typical of those on the web today, one that slipped in undisclosed ads and one that clearly labeled sponsored suggestions. Participants didn’t know the experiment was about advertising.

For example, when participants asked our chatbot for a diet and exercise plan, the ad version would suggest using a specific app for tracking calories. It presented that sponsored content as an unbiased recommendation, even though it was meant to manipulate people. Many participants indicated that they had been influenced by the AI and that it had affected their decisions. Some participants even said they had completely “outsourced” their decision-making to the chatbot.

Half of the participants who received sponsored and disclosed ads indicated they did not notice the presence of advertising language in the responses they received. This led to a concerning result: Although ads made the chatbot perform 3% to 4% worse on many tasks, numerous users indicated they preferred the advertising chatbot responses over the nonadvertising responses. They even said the ad-infused responses felt more friendly and helpful.

A chatbot sneaks a product advertisement into its response to a user who is asking about a diet and exercise regimen.

Knowing you to persuade you

This kind of subtle influence can have larger consequences when it arises in other areas of life, such as political and social views. Profiling users, and using psychology to target them, has been part of social media algorithms and web advertising for more than a decade.

But in our view, chatbots are likely to deepen these trends. That’s because the first priority of social media algorithms is to keep you engaged with the content. They personalize ads based on your search history.

Chatbots, however, can go further by trying to persuade you directly, based on your expressed beliefs, emotions and vulnerabilities. And chatbots that can reason and act on their own are far more effective than conventional algorithms at autonomously soliciting information from users. A chatbot with a purpose can keep probing someone until it gets the information it wants, resulting in a more accurate profile of them.

This type of autonomous interrogation is feasible, aligns with AI companies’ business models and has raised concern among regulators. Right now OpenAI is rolling out ads in ChatGPT, but the company said that it will not allow ad placement to alter the AI chatbot’s replies.

But permitting personalized ads within chatbot responses is just a step away. Our research suggests that if AI companies take that step, many human users may not even recognize when it happens.

Here are some steps you can take to try to detect AI chatbot advertising.

  • Look for any disclosure text – words such as “ad,” “advertisement” and “sponsored” – even if it is faint or otherwise hard to see. These are mandatory under Federal Trade Commission regulations. Amazon, Google and other major online platforms have these as well.
  • Think about whether that product or brand mention makes sense and is widely known. AI learns from text and images on the internet, so popular brands are likely to be ingrained in the models. If it’s a new product or small-name product, it is more likely that it could be advertising.
  • An unusual shift in intent or tone is a potential sign of an advertisement. An analogy to this on YouTube is the often abrupt or jarring transition to a sponsored section on videos made by content creators.The Conversation

About the Author:

Brian Jay Tang, Ph.D. Candidate in Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan and Kang G. Shin, Emeritus Professor of Computer Science, University of Michigan

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Programming
29 Apr

How personal finance advice is getting political, thanks to ‘finfluencers’

By Maximilian Brichta, University of Virginia 

Once seen as often dry and sometimes intimidating, personal finance advice is a far cry from what it was in your grandparents’ day.

It’s not just the array of new online tools, from banking apps to exotic new investing options, such as cryptocurrency. Social media has created a platform for “finfluencers” – nonprofessional personal finance influencers who have become an increasingly common source of advice for young people, whether it’s accurate or not.

While most Americans over 64 say they turn to professional financial planners for guidance, a 2025 Gallup poll found that 42% of 18- to 29-year-olds seek financial advice on social media. That’s almost double the share among those ages 30 to 49. Many finfluencers have no formal financial credentials. Instead, their credibility is largely built on their social media followings, engagement metrics and relatability.

There’s also another generational shift afoot: Personal finance is increasingly bound up with political and social issues. Young adults are attempting to navigate a precarious economy – and the finfluencers who try to court them often launch critiques at the institutions and policies that they say created these conditions.

This advice ranges from risky trading-centric approaches to holistic financial practices. But a common thread is their positioning against traditional financial advice.

As a scholar who studies how the digital economy is affecting young adults’ well-being, I argue that Americans who still get their financial advice from more conventional sources – as well as the professional adviser class – need to understand there’s been a sea change in how young people understand money. And the legions of online followers need a better grasp of the risks involved.

Personal finance goes political

“Hey, I’m Rachel and I’m not paying my federal income taxes this year,” begins a TikTok video of an attorney who claims she’s skipping out on her US$8,800 tax bill for political reasons.

Rachel Cohen’s videos have racked up millions of views so far this year. Her video series details her reasons for refusal, specifically citing her disagreement with federal immigration policy and the “military-industrial complex.” On April 15, 2026, Cohen updated her viewers – some of whom had threatened to report her to the IRS – that she filed her return. But instead of paying the amount due, she’s parking the money in a high-yield savings account. Her sign-off: “Stay tuned and find out if I get arrested!”

Cohen’s not alone in her public protest. Millions of viewers have watched “tax resistance” or “tax strike” videos on TikTok that offer advice on how to not pay taxes and walk viewers through the potential consequences they might face.

Although my research suggests most of the tax-protest content on TikTok comes from left-leaning users, it draws influencers across the political spectrum. Examples include dissenters citing anti-war sentiments or disapproval of the government’s handling of the Epstein files.

Other personalities are encouraging their followers to treat their finances as a broader political statement. In some cases, these videos issue a call to action.

Vivian Tu, better known by her followers as “Your Rich BFF,” explains why the price of raspberries has gone up, citing a variety of foreign and domestic policy decisions: the war in Iran, tariffs and a shortage of migrant farmworkers. “If this video made you mad,” she says, “share it with a friend and contact a legislator.”

Tori Dunlap, author of “Financial Feminist,” tells her 2.2 million followers on Instagram: “If you’re freaking out about the world right now, GET RICH. That is your best form of protest is to get financially stable.”

However, Dunlap isn’t peddling get-rich-quick schemes. Much of her advice is run-of-the-mill personal finance tips – such as improving your credit score, paying down debt or automating savings contributions.

Political personal finance content has also extended beyond protests into things such as tracking the financial integrity of members of Congress or avoiding investments that could fund things such as private prisons.

Follow the money

These examples underscore how people’s financial lives are bound up with their values. And finfluencers appeal to their most politically charged beliefs to shape their financial decisions – even if they aren’t the best choices for their bank accounts.

One example is conflicts of interest. What many followers may not be fully aware of is that most finfluencers are incentivized to make highly performative content to monetize their accounts. This funding can come through either sponsored content – often from credit card and fintech companies – or through their own materials and “masterclasses.”

Moreover, full transparency is not a given. Although TikTok and Instagram have “paid promotion” designations for sponsored content, it’s not always so easy to identify potential conflicts of interest.

Crypto promoters, for example, routinely fail to disclose their sponsorships – and it’s common for them to boost coins they have a vested interest in.

As Americans’ distrust in financial institutions and regulators grows, many are willing to follow advice that falls into gray areas of oversight. When personal finance tips resonate with a viewers’ values, everyday financial decision-making can become colored with politics and nonconformist sentiments.

Advice, please!

Not everyone turns to finfluencers. Many take advice from anonymous strangers on forums such as Reddit.

The r/personalfinance subreddit alone has 2.8 million weekly visitors who post, respond and read questions posed and answered by everyday people. This is only one of 189 finance-related subreddits my colleagues and I compiled in our recent report.

Unlike finfluencers, Reddit users typically trade tips and opinion in plain text and occasional memes. Users of these forums are rarely monetized. It’s also demand-driven advice – people who post on these forums get to ask questions that directly address their personal financial issues. Credibility is earned though community “upvotes” and endorsements. Rather than one opinion, they can get a variety.

But similar to finfluencers, there’s an anti-institutional sentiment that privileges peer-to-peer learning over credentialed expertise. For example, users on the Bitcoin subreddit harshly criticize the contemporary financial system and advocate for digital currency over conventional forms of money.

Others take aim at the excesses of consumer culture, as seen on the forums for anti-consumption and frugal and simple living.

In this environment, financial education is rarely neutral – it’s deeply intertwined with people’s personal and political lives. As finfluencer Ellyce Fulmore puts it: “The barriers you face, your personal experience, the systems that do or don’t work for you … personal, personal, personal, personal!”The Conversation

About the Author:

Maximilian Brichta, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of Virginia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
28 Apr

The World’s Most Underrated Investment Frontier

Source: Stephen McBride (4/27/26) 

Stephen McBride of RiskHedge shares what he believes is one of the most criminally underrated investments today.

RiskHedge publisher Dan Steinhart and I just got back from an epic journey. We crisscrossed the country, hitting five major cities and meeting with 40 of the most brilliant minds working on groundbreaking tech.

We saw pint-sized nuclear reactors, satellites that harvest fuel from thin air, drones delivering boar semen to far-flung corners of Africa (no joke), and spacecraft returning from orbit with tiny payloads worth a fortune.

I don’t embark on these grueling trips—logging tens of thousands of air miles and leaving my better half to wrangle our trio of kids solo—just for kicks. I do it because it lets me spot game-changing trends before they hit the mainstream, positioning us to cash in ahead of the pack.

Based on what I witnessed, I’m convinced one massively overlooked investment play is… the ocean.

During our whirlwind tour, we sat down with a half-dozen maritime outfits, including trailblazing defense tech firm Anduril. A lot of the juiciest prospects are still under wraps, but you can dive into some of them right now.

We just added an ocean disruptor to our Disruption_X portfolio. Today, I’m sharing the memo I fired off to Disruption_X members when we pulled the trigger.

The ocean is a multitrillion-dollar economy on the cusp of being unleashed. Invest accordingly.

My buddy and econ whiz Tyler Cowen digs framing stuff as “overrated” or “underrated.”

I’m a huge fan of viewing investment plays through this “overrated, underrated” prism. It helps you spot hidden edges you can pounce on in markets, business, and life.

The ocean is a ridiculously underrated frontier right now.

You’re reading this piece courtesy of the ocean. The “cloud” is really underwater. North of 95% of internet data—your emails, bank transfers, and ChatGPT queries—zips through a web of roughly 400 fiber-optic cables snaking along the seafloor.

Over 90% of your worldly goods—from the phone in your pocket to the kicks on your feet to the gas in your ride—got to you by sea.

Yet the ocean stays off our radar. Get this: We’ve mapped more of Mars than our own seabed. Upwards of 80% of the ocean is still uncharted!

For investors, ocean tech is like stumbling onto a whole new continent. A bona fide frontier and blue-world economy waiting to be built—with fresh plays spanning self-sailing ships, port security, and underwater data centers.

The drama in the Strait of Hormuz is making us all sit up and take notice of the ocean.

We erected the entire global economy on seas we can’t truly lock down.

Some have floated the idea of battleships chaperoning cargo vessels to guarantee safe passage through the Strait. This won’t cut it long-term. Even if you managed it for a bit, America doesn’t have the fleet to sustain it.

Last year, America cranked out a measly five ships. China launched 1,794. A single Chinese shipyard now outproduces the whole US maritime sector combined.

The bigger issue: The ocean, even the 21-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, is too vast for humans to police solo.

Colombian authorities recently nabbed a totally unmanned “narco-sub.” Tricked out with a Starlink dish, it was built to shuttle 1.5 tons of blow over 800 miles. I’d wager for every drug boat busted, at least 10 slip through. There’s just no way for human crews to patrol the sprawling ocean.

Nowadays, checking out an underwater pipeline or cable means ponying up for a colossal, crewed ship that runs $200,000 a day. No shock that “stuff” in the ocean only gets a once-over every year or two.

This will only worsen as the ocean economy balloons. And bad actors have already taken note.

Picture trying to snag a coffee, but the card reader goes kaput.

You try to ring your family to see what’s up, and the line’s dead.

This nightmare played out for 14,000 folks on the Matsu Islands near Taiwan. Chinese vessels sliced their subsea cables, plunging the island into a weeklong digital blackout.

The global lattice of underwater internet cables could stretch to the moon and back twice. They’re sitting ducks. Taiwan has had its internet cables severed nearly 30 times in recent years. Data pipelines in the Baltic Sea have been cut, too.

America’s tech titans—Meta Platforms Inc. (META:NASDAQ), Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL:NASDAQ), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT:NASDAQ), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:NASDAQ)—now bankroll over 70% of new underwater data cables.

Meta is currently laying the world’s longest submarine cable. Project Waterworth will run 31,000 miles and cost $10 billion.

If you’re going to drop billions on building the underwater backbone of the AI economy…

You’re also going to shell out billions to safeguard it.

Throwing more warm bodies on boats isn’t how you do this. The only way to scale is to make it self-driving. Put another way: the ocean has to police itself.

Just as flying drones are reshaping land warfare, drone boats and subs are already redefining combat at sea.

Ukraine has no navy but still runs the Black Sea with low-cost, self-driving hardware, including its “Sea Baby” drone boats. Ukraine has sunk or crippled a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and has driven the surviving ships into retreat.

Now imagine what unfolds as those vehicles get smarter, speedier, and stealthier.

The US Navy plans to have 130 crewless ships on the water this year. Inside of five years, I’d bet we’ll see 100X—or even 1,000X—more.

The ocean is a trillion-dollar economy waiting for robots to unlock it. The high seas have been our biggest blind spot. And for disruption investors like us, blind spots spell opportunity.

Want to dig deeper into disruptive megatrends?

If my years of globetrotting to meet the folks building the future have taught me one thing, it’s this: The fattest opportunities never look obvious at first blush.

They crop up in the spots most investors aren’t clocking yet, like the ocean.

If you want to ride shotgun as I unearth more disruptive megatrends in real time, you can sign up for my free letter, The Jolt.

In it, I dish on what I’m seeing in the trenches, which ideas I’m tracking, and where I think the most lucrative plays are bubbling up next.

Important Disclosures:

  1. Stephen McBride: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Opinions Stock Market News
26 Apr

Large Currency Speculators raised their Canadian Dollar & Euro Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US Dollar where, for example, a bet for the Euro is a bet that the Euro will rise versus the Dollar while a bet against the Euro will be a bet that the Euro will decline versus the Dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

Speculators Nets FX Futures COT Chart
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (19,438 contracts) with the EuroFX (15,306 contracts), Mexican Peso (8,747 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,558 contracts), British Pound (2,685 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (824 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,252 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-6,178 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-258 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-187 contracts) and Bitcoin (-122 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Canadian Dollar and Euro Bets Rebound This Week

Leading the Currency market speculator positioning this week were strong bets for the Euro and the Canadian Dollar.

First up, the Canadian Dollar positions jumped by 19,438 contracts this week following five consecutive weeks of strong declines. The recent weakness had brought the Canadian Dollar position from a bullish level on March 10 to the most bearish position of the past 18 weeks last week. This week’s rebound halts the slide in net positioning, but the Canadian Dollar position remains in an overall bearish standing at -58,834 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar exchange rate in the Currency markets has risen for three consecutive weeks and closed out this week around the 0.7332 exchange level. The CAD is trading right up against the 200-week moving average currently, and further movement above could see the Canadian Dollar test the 0.7400 major resistance that has capped prices many times dating back to June 2025.

The Euro speculator positioning this week jumped by over 15,000 contracts and follows up last week’s strong gain of over 33,000 contracts. These two weeks of strong gains have brought the overall net standing for the Euro back into bullish territory after spending one week (on April 7) in bearish territory. Previously, the Euro was consistently sitting in strong bullish territory for a time-frame from March 2025 until March 2026, with most weeks above +100,000 contracts. Since March 10th, the Euro positioning took a deep dive and culminated in a negative position on April 7 at -7,541 contracts. With a couple of strong weeks, the position is back above +41,324 contracts this week. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Euro continues to trade within its band of recent action between 1.1500 on the downside for support and 1.1900 on the upside, providing resistance. This week, the Euro fell modestly after three straight weeks of gains and closed out the week at 1.1745 against the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index speculator position continues to be in a small bullish level. The Dollar Index speculator bets have fallen by very small amounts over the past two weeks with declines of -341 contracts and this week’s -187 contracts shortfall. The net position is currently at 4,983 net contracts, and the US Dollar overall positioning has now been in bullish territory for six consecutive weeks. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the US Dollar Index has remained within a band of support and resistance levels recently with support below at 96.75 and resistance above at 100.00. Currently, US Dollar Index price is trading around 98.36.

The Australian Dollar remains the most bullish of the speculator positioning of the Currencies currently. The AUD strength score (which is a score of today’s position compared to the past 3-years range) sits at an Extreme-Bullish reading at 91.2%. However, the Australian Dollar speculator position has been weakening a bit recently and this week fell for a third consecutive week. The overall net position is at its lowest level of the past six weeks at a total net position of 64,817 contracts but remains above the 2026 (so far) weekly average of 41,083 contracts. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the Australian Dollar has continued to show its strength as it trades currently at 0.7146. The Aussie has gained for four consecutive weeks and remains near the top of its range and best trading levels since June 2022 (vs the USD).

Bitcoin leads the price gains in Currency performances this week

Bitcoin was the biggest winner on the week for currency price performance returns with a 5.13% increase. The Brazilian Real came in second with a 0.53% rise while the New Zealand Dollar came in next with a 0.33% gain. The British Pound was higher by 0.28%. The Canadian Dollar was up by 0.25%, and the US Dollar Index was higher by 0.23%. The Australian Dollar capped off the gainers this week with a 0.22% rise.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc edged lower by -0.15% followed by the Japanese Yen which fell by -0.16%. The Mexican Peso saw lower levels by -0.17%, and the Euro saw a modest shortfall by -0.19% on the week.

Currencies Data:

Speculators FX Futures COT Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

Speculators Strength Scores FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (91 percent) and Bitcoin (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (72 percent), Canadian Dollar (59 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the Swiss Franc (33 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (58.1 percent)
EuroFX (44.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (38.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (50.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (91.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (42.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.0 percent)
Bitcoin (90.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (93.1 percent)

US Dollar Index & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trends FX Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (29 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Bitcoin (15 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-24 percent), Japanese Yen (-15 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (29.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (27.4 percent)
EuroFX (-24.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-42.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-18.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-40.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-42.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-13.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-5.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.6 percent)
Bitcoin (15.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,170 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.526.49.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.245.46.3
– Net Position:4,983-5,814831
– Gross Longs:17,6178,0932,750
– Gross Shorts:12,63413,9071,919
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.640.753.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.3-30.13.5

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 15,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,018 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.558.211.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.368.75.6
– Net Position:41,324-83,66342,339
– Gross Longs:217,407459,84486,804
– Gross Shorts:176,083543,50744,465
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.552.763.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.321.04.4

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,724 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.965.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.744.011.1
– Net Position:-52,03956,839-4,800
– Gross Longs:63,086172,75224,374
– Gross Shorts:115,125115,91329,174
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.582.440.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.7-11.7-5.4

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -94,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -11,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,208 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.853.611.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.726.511.6
– Net Position:-94,46095,467-1,007
– Gross Longs:101,386188,72339,688
– Gross Shorts:195,84693,25640,695
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.775.034.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.612.59.2

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,097 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.178.412.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.532.222.0
– Net Position:-33,27342,255-8,982
– Gross Longs:8,37271,76211,159
– Gross Shorts:41,64529,50720,141
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.568.440.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.8-4.4-21.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 19,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,272 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.962.211.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.939.011.5
– Net Position:-58,83459,221-387
– Gross Longs:60,889158,81428,975
– Gross Shorts:119,72399,59329,362
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.141.744.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.941.7-24.0

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,075 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.836.416.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.270.26.2
– Net Position:64,817-93,19828,381
– Gross Longs:128,811100,16845,525
– Gross Shorts:63,994193,36617,144
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.27.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-4.90.8

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -6,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,276 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.684.94.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.325.55.4
– Net Position:-48,45448,983-529
– Gross Longs:7,91770,0563,915
– Gross Shorts:56,37121,0734,444
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.589.245.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.013.5-8.2

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 8,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,954 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.843.93.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.280.91.0
– Net Position:67,701-72,4154,714
– Gross Longs:101,30685,8026,695
– Gross Shorts:33,605158,2171,981
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.5 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.049.048.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.33.64.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 3,558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,975 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.924.44.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.559.01.0
– Net Position:43,533-47,9794,446
– Gross Longs:89,92233,7985,849
– Gross Shorts:46,38981,7771,403
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.4 to 14.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.627.045.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.55.02.4

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,193 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.40.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.19.84.2
– Net Position:2,071-2,250179
– Gross Longs:17,0971941,233
– Gross Shorts:15,0262,4441,054
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.76.546.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.3-20.78.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
26 Apr

Speculator Extremes: SoyOil, SoyMeal, 2-Year & Bloomberg Index lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday April 21st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table). The 6-Week Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Soybean Oil speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 28 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 169,081 net contracts this week with an advance of 22,135 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Soybean Meal

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Soybean Meal speculator level is now at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an advance of 16 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered 136,455 net contracts this week with a weekly fall of -15,760 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The AUD speculator level resides at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 6 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 64,817 net contracts this week with a small retreat of -258 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 15 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 2,071 net contracts this week with a decline of -122 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

Extreme Bullish Leader

The Ultra 10-Year speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise higher by 34 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -73,195 net contracts this week with an increase of 59,678 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table

2-Year Bond

Extreme Bearish Leader

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the 2-Year speculator level at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -37 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -1,743,353 net contracts this week with a retreat of -39,547 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

Extreme Bearish Leader

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 1 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -19,423 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,171 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Extreme Bearish Leader

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -13 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was -48,454 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,178 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

Extreme Bearish Leader

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing as the GBP speculator level sits at a 17 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an advance of 14 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -52,039 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,685 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

Extreme Bearish Leader

Next, the Sugar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 10 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -155,841 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,872 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions
24 Apr

Week Ahead: Rate-Setters Take Centre Stage!

By ForexTime 

  • BoJ, BoC, BoJ, Fed, ECB and BoE seen leaving rates unchanged
  • Quarterly outlook & press conferences may provide critical insight
  • Central banks are likely to remain hawkish on inflation fears
  • USDInd, EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD on breakout watch

Geopolitics may set the tone in the week ahead as markets monitor the Iran standoff.

Risk sentiment will be dictated by whether tensions escalate or shift toward diplomacy.

On the macro front, key central bank decisions and corporate earnings have the potential to inject financial markets with fresh volatility:

Monday, 27th April

  • CN50: China industrial profits
  • GER40: Germany Gfk consumer confidence

Tuesday, 28th April

  • JPY: BoJ rate decision, unemployment
  • US500: US Conf. Board consumer confidence

Wednesday, 29th April

  • AUD: Australia CPI
  • CAD: BoC rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
  • GER40: Germany CPI
  • USDInd: FOMC rate decision

Thursday, 30th April

  • CNY: China manufacturing PMIs
  • EUR: ECB rate decision, Eurozone CPI, unemployment, GDP
  • Germany GDP, unemployment
  • JPY: Japan industrial production, retail sales
  • GBP: BOE rate decision
  •  US500: US GDP, consumer income, initial jobless claims

Friday, 1st May

  • JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI, S&P PMI
  • GBP: UK S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI
  • US500: US S&P Global US Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely impassable since late February, fuelling fears of inflation shocks amid triple digit oil prices.

This has prompted central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance – meaning favoring higher rates to tackle inflation.

Note: A quick central bank cheat sheet of what to expect in the week ahead. (Source Bloomberg)

Here are 5 assets that could be rocked by 5 central bank announcements:

 

1.     BoJ meeting: USDJPY

As USDJPY lingers near the danger 160.00 intervention threshold, whispers are growing louder about a potential intervention.

The BOJ is expected to hold rates steady at 0.75% and release its quarterly outlook report. Any fresh insights offered by Governor Kazuo Ueda during the post-meeting briefing could rock the Yen.

Note: The BoJ decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.8%, or as much as 0.1% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

2.     BoC meeting: USDCAD

The BOC is expected to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% with Governor Tiff Macklem holding a press conference post decision.

Given how the CAD has been heavily supported by surging oil prices, this could spark discussion of a possible rate hike down the road.

Note: The BoC decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.2%, or as much as 0.2% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

3.     Fed meeting: USDInd

Market expectations have rapidly evaporated over the Fed cutting or raising rate in 2026 amid the confusion and uncertainty around the Iran conflict.

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% with Chair Jerome Powell holding a news conference post decision.

Note: The Fed decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.5%, or as much as 0.2% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

4.     ECB meeting: EURUSD

No changes are expected to interest rates when the ECB meets but any insight offered in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) or President Christine Lagarde’s conference could move the EURUSD. Trader are currently pricing a 90% chance of an ECB rate cut by June.

Note: The ECB decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.6%, or as much as 0.1% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

5.     BoE meeting: GBPUSD

Growing concerns over rising inflation have raised the odds of a BoE rate hike in 2026. Although the BoE will leave rates unchanged in April, the meeting minutes, quarterly Monetary Policy Report and Governor Andrew Bailey’ press conference may provide critical insight.

Note: The BoE decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.5%, or as much as 0.4% decline in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
22 Apr

Data centers don’t have to be a burden on local communities – and can even support them by generating power and repurposing waste heat

By Gregor Henze, University of Colorado Boulder and Sean Shaheen, University of Colorado Boulder 

Many consumers – and state policymakers and even utility companies – are worried about the possibility of large numbers of data centers raising electricity demand and power prices.

Those are real concerns, but our engineering research finds that if designed, constructed and operated carefully, data centers can actually help the communities that host them.

On-site energy storage

Locating power-generating capacity on-site, even using modified jet engines to drive steam turbines, is one emerging option to address data centers’ high power needs.

But there are other options, too. Data centers can install backup batteries that would kick in during an outage or could be used to avoid an outage when demand spikes. The batteries could not only provide power to the data center but also to the surrounding area in times of need.

Various types of battery designs and chemistries offer options for storing enough energy to keep a data center running from a few hours to a few days. This would be critical in supplying electricity during outages because of extreme weather events or excess demand on the grid during periods of peak usage.

Longer duration batteries are also in development. Plans for a new Google data center in Minnesota include solar panels and wind turbines with batteries that would become the world’s largest electricity storage system, with a power capacity of 300 megawatts. Google plans to install iron-air batteries, which are based on chemical reactions with iron to separate and store charge, that would store enough electrical energy to keep a data center running for as much as 100 hours.

Another long-duration battery design uses zinc and water as its key chemical ingredients. It needs relatively little cooling, so batteries can be stacked closely. Significant storage capacity could allow data center owners to flexibly decide when to use energy directly from the grid, when to run off the batteries, when to recharge the batteries, and even whether to sell power back to the grid to earn extra money.

Using waste heat in the community

Data centers produce large amounts of heat, which must be removed from the computer chips. A data center gives off enough heat to potentially keep nearby buildings warm.

Many cities around the world already have what are called “district heating systems,” in which a group of buildings are connected with a pipe network and receive their heat from a central heat source.

Data centers could serve as a heat source for these systems. Recent improvements in these systems, called a “thermal microgrid” or an “ambient loop,” don’t require steam or extremely hot water, but rather use cooler temperatures of water to transport heat between the buildings. Efficient electric heat pumps in each building use that water loop to adjust the building’s air temperature in both winter and summer, creating combined district heating and cooling systems.

In this scenario, data center heat becomes not wasted energy rejected into the air but a money- and energy-saving resource for the local community. For example, a 75 megawatt data center in the town of Mantsala, Finland, is supplying heat to approximately 2,500 homes in the community.

Combining energy production, storage and heating

In our research, we suggest that combining data centers equipped with on-site power generation and battery energy storage and systems that use the waste heat could make the data center a benefit to the community rather than a drain on its resources.

Locating a data center with on-site battery energy storage in a neighborhood and, crucially, connecting them both thermally and electrically could create a small-scale energy community. In addition to providing heat, the data center could help meet the neighborhood’s electricity needs during power outages, storms or peak usage periods.

A diagram shows connections between a data center and its nearby community buildings.
Combined thermal and electrical microgrids form an integrated energy community with data center waste heat reuse.
Gregor Henze and Sean Shaheen, CC BY-NC-ND

Improved efficiency of computing

As a fourth dimension to achieving sustainability in data centers, an emerging approach involves drastically reducing the energy consumed for every unit of computation. That would mean exponential growth in computational tasks does not require a corresponding exponential growth in hardware or electricity usage.

Advances in computer chip designs are making data center processors significantly more efficient, able to do larger numbers of more complex calculations more quickly while using less electricity.

But however efficient the chips get, there is both need and opportunity to make them dramatically more so. A growing field called “unconventional computing” is poised to help.

This field, which includes computing approaches inspired by the architecture of the human brain in the emerging technology of neuromorphic AI, as well as engineering innovations such as chips that use their own waste heat, can exhibit thousands-, millions-, or even billionsfold increases in power efficiency. That could make data centers immensely more capable of the computing tasks needed for training AI systems.

Improvements in data center efficiency would reduce the demand for more computing chips and more electricity to run them, even while producing more output.

Researchers across academia, industry and government agencies are developing road maps to scaling these new pathways for energy-efficient computing and are planning for a future where new materials with fundamentally different properties improve efficiency even more.

Some of these advances may be months away, though others could be decades into the future. But we believe that taken together, the opportunities for power generation and storage, waste heat reuse and improved computational efficiency could make data centers beneficial for their communities, and society as a whole, in support of energy affordability and resilience.The Conversation

About the Author:

Gregor Henze, Professor of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder and Sean Shaheen, Professor of Electrical, Computer, and Energy Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Energy Opinions
21 Apr

US government ramps up mass surveillance with help of AI tech, data brokers – and your apps and devices

By Anne Toomey McKenna, Penn State 

On a Saturday morning, you head to the hardware store. Your neighbors’ Ring cameras film your walk to the car. Your car’s sensors, cameras and microphones record your speed, how you drive, where you’re going, who’s with you, what you say, and biological metrics such as facial expression, weight and heart rate. Your car may also collect text messages and contacts from your connected smartphone.

Meanwhile, your phone continuously senses and records your communications, info about your health, what apps you’re using, and tracks your location via cell towers, GPS satellites and Wi-Fi and Bluetooth.

As you enter the store, its surveillance cameras identify your face and track your movements through the aisles. If you then use Apple or Google Pay to make your purchase, your phone tracks what you bought and how much you paid.

All this data quickly becomes commercially available, bought and sold by data brokers. Aggregated and analyzed by artificial intelligence, the data reveals detailed, sensitive information about you that can be used to predict and manipulate your behavior, including what you buy, feel, think and do.

Companies unilaterally collect data from most of your activities. This “surveillance capitalism” is often unrelated to the services device manufacturers, apps and stores are providing you. For example, Tinder is planning to use AI to scan your entire camera roll. And despite their promises, “opting out” doesn’t actually stop companies’ data collection.

While companies can manipulate you, they cannot put you in jail. But the U.S. government can, and it now purchases massive quantities of your information from commercial data brokers. The government is able to purchase Americans’ sensitive data because the information it buys is not subject to the same restrictions as information it collects directly.

The federal government is also ramping up its abilities to directly collect data through partnerships with private tech companies. These surveillance tech partnerships are becoming entrenched, domestically and abroad, as advances in AI take surveillance to unprecedented levels.

As a privacy, electronic surveillance and tech law attorney, author and legal educator, I have spent years researching, writing and advising about privacy and legal issues related to surveillance and data use. To understand the issues, it is critical to know how these technologies function, who collects what data about you, how that data can be used against you, and why the laws you might think are protecting your data do not apply or are ignored.

Big money for AI-driven tech and more data

Congressional funding is supercharging huge government investments in surveillance tech and data analytics driven by AI, which automates analysis of very large amounts of data. The massive 2025 tax-and-spending law netted the Department of Homeland Security an unprecedented US$165 billion in yearly funding. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, part of DHS, got about $86 billion.

Disclosure of documents allegedly hacked from Homeland Security reveal a massive surveillance web that has all Americans in its scope.

DHS is expanding its AI surveillance capabilities with a surge in contracts to private companies. It is reportedly funding companies that provide more AI-automated surveillance in airports; adapters to convert agents’ phones into biometric scanners; and an AI platform that acquires all 911 call center data to build geospatial heat maps to predict incident trends. Predicting incident trends can be a form of predictive policing, which uses data to anticipate where, when and how crime may occur.

DHS has also spent millions on AI-driven software used to detect sentiment and emotion in users’ online posts. Have you been complaining about Immigration and Customs Enforcement policies online? If so, social media companies including Google, Reddit, Discord, and Facebook and Instagram owner Meta may have sent identifying data, such as your name, email address, phone number and activity, to DHS in response to hundreds of DHS subpoenas served on the companies.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s national policy framework for artificial intelligence, released on March 20, 2026, urges Congress to use grants and tax incentives to fund “wider deployment of AI tools across American industry” and to allow industry and academia to use federal datasets to train AI.

Using federal datasets this way raises privacy law concerns because they contain a lifetime of sensitive details about you, including biographical, employment and tax information.

Blurring lines and little oversight

In foreign intelligence work, the funding, development and controlled use of certain AI-driven gathering of data makes sense. The CIA’s new acquisition framework to turbocharge collaboration with the private sector may be legal with proper oversight. But the line between collaborating for lawful national security purposes versus unlawful domestic spying is becoming dangerously blurred or ignored.

For example, the Pentagon has declared a contractor, Anthropic, a national security risk because Anthropic insisted that its powerful agentic AI model, Claude, not be used for mass domestic surveillance of Americans or fully autonomous weapons.

On March 18, 2026, FBI Director Kash Patel confirmed to Congress that the FBI is buying Americans’ data from data brokers, including location histories, to track American citizens.

As the federal government accelerates the use of and investment in AI-driven spy tech, it is mandating less oversight around AI technology. In addition to the national AI policy framework, which discourages state regulation of AI, the president has issued executive orders to accelerate federal government adoption of AI systems, remove state law AI regulation barriers and require that the federal government not procure the use of AI models that attempt to adjust for bias. But using advanced AI systems is risky, given reports of AI agents going rogue, exposing sensitive data and becoming a threat, even during routine tasks.

Your data

The surveillance capitalism system requires people to unwittingly participate in a manipulative cycle of group- and self-surveillance. Neighborhood doorbell cameras, Flock license plate readers and hyperlocal social media sites like Nextdoor create a crowdsourced record of all people’s movements in public spaces.

Sensors in phones and wearable devices, such as earbuds and rings, collect ever more sensitive details. These include health data, including your heart rate and heart rate variability, blood oxygen, sweat and stress levels, behavioral patterns, neurological changes and even brain waves. Smartphones can be used to diagnose, assess and treat Parkinson’s disease. Earbuds could be used to monitor brain health.

This data is not protected under HIPAA, which prohibits health care providers and those working with them from disclosing your health information without your permission, because the law does not consider tech companies to be health care providers nor these wearables to be medical devices.

Legal protections

People have little choice when buying devices, using apps or opening accounts but to agree to lengthy terms that include consent for companies to collect and sell their personal data. This “consent” allows their data to end up in the largely unregulated commercial data market.

The government claims it can lawfully purchase this data from data brokers. But in buying your data in bulk on the commercial market, the government is circumventing the Constitution, Supreme Court decisions and federal laws designed to protect your privacy from unwarranted government overreach.

The Fourth Amendment prohibits unreasonable search and seizure by the government. Supreme Court cases require police to get a warrant to search a phone or use cellular or GPS location information to track someone. The Electronic Communications Privacy Act’s Wiretap Act prohibits unauthorized interception of wire, oral and electronic communications.

Despite some efforts, Congress has failed to enact legislation to protect data privacy, the use of sensitive data by AI systems or to restore the intent of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act. Courts have allowed the broad electronic privacy protections in the federal Wiretap Act to be eviscerated by companies claiming consent.

In my opinion, the way to begin to address these problems is to restore the Wiretap Act and related laws to their intended purposes of protecting Americans’ privacy in communications, and for Congress to follow through on its promises and efforts by passing legislation that secures Americans’ data privacy and protects them from AI harms.

This article is part of a series on data privacy that explores who collects your data, what and how they collect, who sells and buys your data, what they all do with it, and what you can do about it.The Conversation

About the Author:

Anne Toomey McKenna, Affiliated Faculty Member, Institute for Computational and Data Sciences, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming
21 Apr

Signs of economic instability emerge in Oakland County, one of Michigan’s wealthiest

By Grigoris Argeros, Eastern Michigan University and Jordyn Gerwig, Eastern Michigan University 

Oakland County, home to nearly 1.3 million residents, ranks among Michigan’s wealthiest counties.

But that description does not tell the whole story.

Since 2020, Oakland County’s population and income have grown steadily. Over the same period, Wayne County’s population declined, and Macomb County experienced slower growth.

Oakland County also has higher incomes overall. Median household income is about US$97,760 in Oakland County, compared with $77,837 in Macomb County and $60,539 in Wayne County.

Some of Oakland’s communities, such as Birmingham and Bloomfield Hills, rank among the most affluent in the tri-county Detroit metro region, with rapidly increasing home prices. Homes in these communities can sell for well over $1 million. Residents here have generally better health outcomes and have remained at the top of the socioeconomic ladder over time. The median household income is $153,510 in Birmingham and $189,942 in Bloomfield Hills.

However, median household incomes can be misleading and mask important differences within the county. Prosperity is not evenly shared, a sign of long-standing economic inequality.

My sociology research focuses on neighborhood and socioeconomic change in American cities. To see where and how divides are emerging, it is necessary to look beyond overall averages and focus on communities within individual counties. Let’s see what we find when we look deeper into the communities in Oakland County.

Oakland County is known for its affluence, but some of its communities are experiencing changes in socioeconomic status.
Notorious4life (talk) (Uploads), CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

Measuring inequality

To do that analysis, I used an index of neighborhood socioeconomic status, developed by geographer Joe Darden and political scientist Sameh Kamel. Darden is known for his research on residential segregation and neighborhood inequality in the Detroit region.

Urban researchers and public health scholars use this index to compare neighborhood conditions within and across metropolitan regions and to examine how inequality is distributed.

The index uses census data to combine measures of income, education, housing and employment into a single score ranging from 0 to 100. Higher scores indicate higher socioeconomic position. Like any composite index, it summarizes complex social conditions into a single measure and cannot capture every difference between communities.

Oakland County’s wealth isn’t evenly shared

On this index, Oakland County’s communities are spread across the full socioeconomic range rather than clustering entirely at the top.

In 2023 about 61% fell into the highest socioeconomic tier. The rest were divided between the middle and lowest tiers.

Communities such as Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Troy and Rochester Hills remain relatively well-off, with some of the highest scores on the county’s socioeconomic index.

Cities such as Pontiac, along with suburbs such as Oak Park, Hazel Park and Madison Heights, fall in the county’s lowest socioeconomic tier with some of the lowest scores on the index.

Pockets of socioeconomic change

About 80% of communities in Oakland county remained in the same tier between 2010 and 2023.

Socioeconomic stability was strongest at the top: 9 in 10 high-tier communities stayed there.

But the rest of the county tells a different story.

Several communities outside the top tier changed position over time. Wixom and Keego Harbor moved up from the lowest tier into the middle, while Oxford and Rose townships rose from the middle tier into the highest.

Addison, Brandon and White Lake townships shifted from the highest tier into the middle, while Holly township moved from the middle tier into the lowest.

Wealth gaps point to growing disadvantage

These differences point to a growing socioeconomic divide within one of Michigan’s wealthiest counties, similar to trends in other parts of the U.S.

Understanding these divides is key to making sense of the region’s broader challenges, from rising housing costs to differences in job opportunities across metropolitan Detroit.

Communities with a low socioeconomic score have higher poverty and unemployment rates, lower median household income and fewer residents with a college degree or higher. Higher-tier communities show the opposite pattern, with lower poverty and unemployment, higher incomes, higher educational attainment and much higher home values.

The middle tier includes communities such as Ferndale, Auburn Hills, Waterford Township, South Lyon and Wixom. As a group, middle-tier communities resemble the county’s wealthiest areas on some indicators – such as unemployment and homeownership. On others, especially poverty, they remain closer to lower-income places.

A key distinction, however, is the continuing gap between the middle and the top. Middle-tier communities have lower incomes, fewer college graduates and far lower home values than higher-tier communities. The typical home in a middle-tier place is worth about $259,000, compared with more than $405,000 in the highest tier. The gap in median home values leads to significant differences in family wealth, which in turn affects retirement savings, the ability to pay for college and the financial cushion available during economic downturns.

These differences suggest that Oakland County’s stratification is not limited to a divide between struggling areas and wealthy ones. Instead, even its middle-tier communities lag behind the county’s most affluent places, especially when it comes to education and wealth. The divide, therefore, runs not only between the bottom and the top but also between the middle and the most advantaged communities.

How does Oakland compare with nearby counties?

In Oakland County, movement was evenly split, with 10% of communities moving up and 10% moving down, suggesting that gains and losses occurred at roughly the same rate.

In Macomb County, 13% of communities moved up, while 4% moved down. Wayne County showed the least change overall, with about 91% of communities remaining in the same tier between 2010 and 2023. This may be due to decades of economic hardship that have made it more unlikely for communities there to move in either direction.

Oakland County remains one of Michigan’s wealthiest counties. But its communities are not all moving in the same direction. Understanding these differences will be important as the region plans for the future.The Conversation

About the Author:

Grigoris Argeros, Professor of Sociology, Eastern Michigan University and Jordyn Gerwig, Graduate Assistant, Eastern Michigan University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
17 Apr

Week Ahead: NAS100 faces triple risk cocktail

By ForexTime 

  • NAS100 ↑ 11% MTD, recently touching ATH
  • Tesla ↑ 5% MTD ahead of earnings on Tuesday 22nd April
  • US-Iran two-week ceasefire deadline expires April 21
  • US retail sales sparked moves of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 0.5% over past year
  • Technical levels: 27000, 26500, 26000

The week ahead is packed with top-tier data releases, quarterly earnings from the world’s largest companies and key geopolitical developments.

Investors will be monitoring the looming deadline of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, Tesla earnings and US retail sales among other heavy hitting reports:

Monday, 20th April

  • CNY: China loan prime rates
  • CAD: Inflation Rate YoY

 

Tuesday, 21st April

  •  EUR: Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
  • GBP: Unemployment Rate
  • NAS100: US retail sales MoM
  • The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire 

Wednesday, 22nd April

  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • ZAR: South Africa CPI, retail sales
  • GBP: UK Inflation Rate YoY
  • NAS100: Tesla earnings

Thursday, 23rd April

  • EU50: Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
  • UK100: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
  • TWN: Taiwan industrial production, unemployment
  • NAS100: US initial jobless claims; S&P Global manufacturing, services PMI

Friday, 24th April

  • JPY: Inflation Rate YoY
  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • GBP: Retail Sales MoM
  • EUR: German Ifo Business Climate
  • NAS100: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s NAS100 which has rebounded 16% from its 2026 low. 

Note: FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying Nasdaq 100 index

Recently, US equities have been buoyed by hopes that the US and Iran will secure a permanent ceasefire. This has propelled both the NAS100 and US500 to fresh all-time highs!

Here are 4 factors that could trigger significant price swings:  

1)     US-Iran truce deadline

The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Tuesday April 21st at day’s end.

Yet markets remain hopeful over both sides extending the truce – which could pave the way for a permanent ceasefire agreement. Despite Trump striking an optimistic tone, markets are likely to remain guarded and highly sensitive to any fresh developments.

  • Global sentiment may receive a boost if the truce is extended with hopes of an extended ceasefire supporting the NAS100.
  • Should the deadline expire and result in renewed conflict, this may hit risk assets like the NAS100.

2)     Tesla Q1 earnings

Earnings season is in full swing with US banks posting solid earnings. US equity markets could be injected with fresh volatility when big tech companies report their results.

One of the world’s largest EV manufacturers with a market cap of over $1.46 trillion will publish its Q1 results on April 22nd  after US markets close.

Tesla shares have had a rough year so far, down almost 15% YTD. Deliveries already came in below expectations – totaling 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, marking a 14.3% decline from the previous quarter but a 6.2% increase year-over-year.

Markets are forecasting a 3.1% move, either Up or Down, for Tesla stocks post earnings which make up roughly 4% of the NAS100 weight.

3)     US retail sales

A string of key US data including the latest US retail sales report may provide fresh insights into the health of the US economy.

Given how this data may influence Fed cut expectations, this could mean fresh volatility for the NAS100 which remains sensitive to interest rates.

Note: US retail sales sparked moves of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 0.5% over past year

Note: Traders are currently pricing a 35% chance that the Fed cuts rates in 2026.

4)     Technical forces

The NAS100 is firmly bullish on the daily charts, recently hitting fresh all-time highs beyond 26300. However, the RSI indicates that prices are heavily overbought.

  • A solid breakout above 26500 may trigger an incline toward 27000.
  • Weakness below 26500 may open the doors toward 26000 and 25800.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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