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The missing link in America’s critical minerals push isn’t mining – it’s processing expertise

By Hélène Nguemgaing, University of Maryland and Alan Collins, West Virginia UniversityThe United States is spending billions of dollars to secure access to critical minerals – minerals and metals that are essential to modern technology, from electric vehicles to smartphones and military systems.

But amid the push to dig more, one question gets far too little attention: Who will actually process what comes out of the ground?

Between mining and the finished product lies a complex chain of separation, refining and advanced manufacturing. Since the 1990s, however, the United States has lost much of its critical mineral processing capacity.

Rebuilding domestic mineral supply chains will depend not only on resource availability and funding, but also on whether the U.S. can rebuild the technical expertise and industrial systems required to process those materials on a large scale.

MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine and processing facility in California was for years the only U.S. rare earth elements mine.
Tmy350/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

How America lost its lead

The United States was a global leader in rare earth minerals from 1965 through the mid-1980s. It produced about 15,000 metric tons a year, about three times the amount produced by the rest of the world.

The Mountain Pass mine in California supplied the majority of the world’s rare earth elements used in electronics and the defense industry. American metallurgists, chemical engineers and processing facilities had significant expertise in its production and processing.

However, environmental damage, including wastewater pipeline leaks that released radioactive wastewater into the Mojave Desert during the 1980s and 1990s, and tightening regulations increased operating costs in the United States. During that period, much of the world’s manufacturing base for rare earth elements shifted to China, where labor costs were lower and environmental regulations were less stringent.

As production grew abroad, U.S. production of rare earth elements fell sharply – to near zero by the early 2000s, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

In recent years, as much as 90% of the rare earth minerals extracted in the United States and allied countries have been shipped to China for processing. In 2024, the U.S. relied on imports for about 80% of its rare earth compounds and metals.

Why bringing processing back is not simple

The U.S. government is now pushing to increase domestic critical minerals production, citing national security. But building a processing facility is not like opening a warehouse.

These facilities require years of permitting, highly specialized equipment and a workforce trained in metallurgy, chemical engineering and industrial systems operation. The time from investment decision to production can stretch across a decade.

The U.S. currently has two domestic rare earth mining locations. One is in southeast Georgia, which extracts rare earth elements as a byproduct of heavy mineral sand mining. The other is Mountain Pass, which produces bastnaesite, a rare earth carbonate mineral. The mines produced about 51,000 metric tons of rare earth mineral concentrates in 2025, while the U.S. imported about 21,000 metric tons of rare earth compounds, most of them from China, according to 2025 U.S. Geological Survey data.

The U.S. has also lost expertise. Mining and mineral engineering education programs now produce only a few hundred graduates per year, well below the levels of past decades. The number of accredited programs has declined since the 1980s. Many faculty members are nearing retirement.

Industry projections estimate that the mining workforce will need to grow significantly in the coming years to meet rising demand. Specialized skills in areas such as rare earth separation, metallurgical testing and environmental systems design require years of training and practical experience. And while mining can produce high-paying jobs, the industry also has a reputation for environmental damage and hazardous conditions.

Environmental compliance is part of the skill set

Processing critical minerals is a dirty industry. That fact has made it more difficult for processing and refining companies to operate in the U.S.

For example, separating rare earth elements typically involves chemical processing with acids and solvents. When waste streams are poorly managed, these processes can produce toxic wastewater and air pollution and contribute to soil erosion. In parts of China where rare earth production expanded rapidly in the 1990s and 2000s, contamination from mining and processing has polluted rivers and damaged nearby farmland, and the wastewater can seep into soil and groundwater.

In the U.S., modern facilities must meet strict federal and state standards for air quality, water discharge and waste management that raise the cost of processing. These regulations were developed in response to environmental disasters, like the Cuyahoga River fire of 1969, when industrial oil and waste on the river burned, and hazardous waste crises like the Love Canal disaster that led to landmark environmental laws.

Operating a refinery or separation facility in compliance with regulatory standards today requires expertise in pollution control, waste treatment and sustainable process design. That requires a workforce skilled in materials science and engineering and with knowledge of environmental systems. Without environmental expertise, operational risks, regulatory challenges and project delays can increase, affecting long-term viability.

How to build a US supply chain

Rebuilding U.S. supply chains will require more than expanding extraction.

Canada’s critical minerals strategy offers an example. It connects mining projects to battery and electric vehicle manufacturing by funding processing facilities, developing regional supply chain hubs and investing in workforce training programs tied to those industries.

Australia has combined critical minerals policies with incentives and public financing to encourage domestic mineral processing, while also expanding university and vocational training in mining, metallurgy and mineral processing.

The United States has many of the key ingredients needed to rebuild its processing capacity, including research universities and workers with transferable industrial skills. Land-grant and technical universities could expand programs that integrate mining, materials science, environmental restoration and recycling. In regions such as Appalachia, where coal’s decline has left workers with skills but few job opportunities, retraining programs for new mineral recovery jobs could help people transition to a new industry.

A few federal programs support parts of this transition, including research hubs that develop new extraction and processing technologies, apprenticeship initiatives and university-industry partnerships. However, these efforts are spread across multiple agencies, with limited coordination to align priorities and investment.

The real bottleneck

America’s critical minerals strategy is often discussed in terms of geology and geopolitics – where resources are located and who has access to them.

But supply chains depend on people and systems. That’s America’s real bottleneck in creating a domestic supply chain.

A successful domestic supply chain will require workers who know how to separate neodymium from praseodymium, operate solvent extraction circuits and maintain hydrometallurgical plants within regulatory standards. These are highly specialized skills that take years to develop.

The United States has significant mineral resources and growing policy support. Now, it needs to pay attention to the workforce and industrial capacity needed to transform those resources into usable materials.

This gap developed over decades. Addressing it will likely require sustained investment alongside broader mineral policy changes such as permitting reforms and investment in domestic processing facilities.

About the Author:

Hélène Nguemgaing, Assistant Clinical Professor of Critical Resources & Sustainability Analytics, University of Maryland and Alan Collins, Professor of Natural Resource Economics, West Virginia University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

13 May

Most people don’t know what they don’t know, but think they do – correcting your metaknowledge can make you a better teacher and learner

By Tommy Blanchard, Tufts University

Do you know what the Apple logo looks like?

Chances are, you think you do. It’s ubiquitous and iconic. How could you not know it?

But when tested, it turns out very few people can remember all the features of the logo. One study of 85 people found that only about half could pick the correct logo out of a lineup of similar ones. And only one person could correctly draw it.

This isn’t an isolated example. A classic study from 1979 found that people similarly couldn’t draw a penny accurately or pick out a correctly drawn penny from incorrect ones.

People aren’t just bad at remembering things they see all the time, but also in actually knowing how they work. In a 2006 study, many people made significant errors when drawing a bicycle, like putting the chain around the front wheel as well as the back wheel. More than just a forgotten detail, putting the chain around both wheels shows a deeper misunderstanding of how a bicycle works. A bicycle with a chain around both wheels wouldn’t be able to turn.

Illustration of bike with different components labeled — Do you truly know how a bicycle works?
Al2/Grandiose via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

It turns out people’s knowledge of how the world works is often fragmented and sketchy at best. They systematically overestimate their understanding of everyday devices and natural phenomena. People will tend to give themselves high ratings on how well they understand something, such as how bicycles or zippers work. But when they’re asked to actually explain the mechanics of these objects, their ratings of their understanding typically drop.

Just like how your knowledge of the world around you is imperfect, your knowledge about your own knowledge – also called metaknowledge – is often flawed. My field of cognitive science has been uncovering various gaps in human metaknowledge for decades.

If people are systematically overconfident about how well they understand things, why don’t they notice when they don’t understand something? And what can people do to better recognize the limits of their own knowledge?

The ability to say ‘I know that I know nothing’ could be considered a sign of wisdom.
Nicolas-André Monsiau/Pushkin Museum of Fine Arts via Wikimedia Commons

Why you think you know more than you do

Researchers have identified several factors behind people’s overconfidence in their knowledge.

One is that people confuse environmental support with understanding: The information is out in the world but not actually in your head. With a bicycle or a zipper, all of the parts are visible to you, and you may confuse this transparency for an internal understanding of how they work. But until you go to use that knowledge by attempting to explain how they work, you may not recognize that you don’t understand how those parts interact.

A second factor is confusing different levels of analysis. People can often describe how something works at a very high level. You know that the engine of a car makes the car go, and the brakes slow and stop the vehicle. But confidence in your high-level understanding of the car may bias you to think you also have a good grasp of the finer details, like how the engine pistons and brake pads work.

Additionally, people can be blind to the ways their knowledge shapes their own perception. In one study, researchers had participants tap out the tune to a popular song. On average, the tappers thought listeners would be able to identify the song about 50% of the time. But when listeners had to identify the tapped song, they actually could identify it only 2.5% of the time. The tappers didn’t realize how much their knowledge was making identifying the song seem easy to them.

A teacher talks to a student before a chalkboard wall filled with equations, chemical structures and graphs — Intellectual humility can help you see your expert blind spot.
Vitaly Gariev/Unsplash, CC BY-SA

This disconnect has consequences beyond whether someone else can understand your Morse code version of a song. When teaching people, whether in formal classroom settings or through casual mentorship, you can sometimes have an expert blind spot: the inability to recognize the difficulties beginners face when learning something you have expertise in.

Building expertise often involves internalizing knowledge to the point where it becomes invisible to you. You draw on knowledge you don’t realize you have, making it hard to relate to learners who lack this knowledge – and, of course, hard for learners to relate to your teaching. You might have experienced this when you’ve gotten partway through explaining something, only to realize you’ve been using jargon you forgot isn’t common knowledge and lost your listener.

How to address metaknowledge failures

Your metaknowledge can fail in two directions: You can think you know more than you do, and you can be blind to how much you’re relying on knowledge you do have. Each calls for a different response to correct it.

When you’re overconfident in your knowledge, the remedy is using that knowledge. You’ll quickly realize how much you actually understand and dial down your confidence. Challenging yourself to actually try to walk through how something works is a great exercise in intellectual humility – that is, recognizing that you may be wrong – and can keep you from getting out over your skis.

Building a greater appreciation for what you know is more difficult. You can’t simply unlearn what you’ve internalized. But what this challenge shows is that, to some extent, knowing a subject and knowing how to teach it are two separate skills. Some experts are great teachers, but not simply by virtue of being experts. Recognizing that you have to approach teaching with humility, and that your expertise doesn’t automatically make you a skilled teacher, can go a long way toward making you a better teacher and mentor.

These aren’t easy and quick fixes to failures of metaknowledge. Both require ongoing intellectual humility and a willingness to distrust your own confidence. But acknowledging the fallibility of your own metaknowledge is a good place to start.

About the Author:

Tommy Blanchard, Research Associate in Cognitive Science, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Psychology

13 May

How does your brain decide between the road not taken or the same old route? Resolving conflicting memories is key to navigation

By Paulina Maxim, Georgia Institute of Technology

When was the last time you paid attention to your commute? And I don’t mean a couple of feet in front of you, at the car merging into your lane without a blinker. I mean really paid attention to the route you take.

Did you see the landmarks in the distance that make up the city skyline? Did you drive right past the grocery store you promised to stop by at the corner of this Peachtree Street or that Peachtree Street, a struggle Atlanta locals know well?

“Oops! Force of habit,” you might say to yourself as you miss your turn and begin to think about when and where you can turn around.

Relying on familiarity can either facilitate or impede daily navigation. As a researcher studying memory and navigation, I aim to understand how the brain supports spatial navigation and what happens if the cognitive mechanisms for choosing the best route home begin to decline, such as during stress or with aging.

Humans are creatures of habit – at least that’s what people tell themselves when wary of trying something new. But what if a new route is faster or safer than the one you usually take? Would you try it?

Research from my team suggests that people balance between exploration and habit – that is, trying something new or sticking with the familiar – when deciding what route to take. Which navigation strategy someone chooses depends not only on their spatial abilities but on their network of brain regions that support navigation.

A spatial blueprint

Spatial navigation refers to the cognitive ability that helps you travel from one location to another. It may sound simple, but it requires using cognitive functions such as memory, attention, decision-making and assessing potential rewards – never mind the ability to simply perceive the environment itself.

Spatial navigation uses memories of things you consciously experienced. Two types of memory relevant to navigation are what scientists call episodic and semantic.

For example, you might retrieve an episodic memory about a specific event: remembering a detour you took a week ago to drop a package off at the post office, including the traffic and weather that day.

You might also retrieve a semantic memory that’s more factual and knowledge-based: remembering how many blocks away the post office is from the park and the turns you need to make to get there.

Together, these kinds of memory inform your spatial memory, which allows you to retrieve location information. This could be where buildings are in relation to each other or where objects are situated in your house. Spatial memories help form your cognitive map, which is essential for getting around in the world.

Often, these different ways of remembering interact, and you can use one type of memory to inform the other. For example, you’ve become accustomed to your commute to work and know it’s relatively short (semantic memory), but over the past three days you’ve been arriving late due to heavy traffic (episodic memory), so you choose to take a different route next time.

Research from my team has found that disagreements in your brain over possible routes can happen. Different types of memory can come up with different solutions for what route you can take, and this conflict is a big factor in how hard your brain needs to work when navigating an environment.

Responding to new and familiar memories

Habits stem from what researchers call stimulus-response memories. These include the knee-jerk reaction you might have to familiar landmarks – when you perceive these places, your brain signals you to make a turn along your commute without needing to consciously think about it.

Habits are rigid, but they can also be beneficial: By taking care of the navigation for you, habit frees up your brain to have a conversation with someone or plan what to make for dinner when you get home.

When navigating less familiar routes or environments, where habit doesn’t kick in automatically, you rely on brain regions such as the hippocampus to call on detailed memories from recent experiences to help guide the way.

But let’s say you’re shopping at a new grocery store where most things are where you expect them to be, even though you’ve never been in this particular store before. What happens when your brain experiences both something new and something familiar about an environment?

Researchers have shown that when something about an environment is familiar and aligns with your prior experiences, the prefrontal regions of your brain – those responsible for executive functions such as decision-making – become more active. They can bypass or even inhibit your hippocampus’s ability to form new memories about specific events.

In other words, your brain can weave information about a new experience into your database of existing knowledge, rather than storing it as completely new information with little relation to the past. This process may help fast-track your understanding about new experiences.

Updating cognitive maps

Researchers know that cognitive maps of the environment depend on the hippocampus and its database of memories about specific events. However, I and other researchers argue these maps can also function as a schema – a collection of memories made up of associations between environmental details. You can add new information to these collections and use it to infer new relationships.

Say a new pedestrian bridge is built between the park and the post office. Your brain can more easily weave this new route information into your existing memories compared with learning a new environment from scratch. Similarly, if you just moved to a new town and know very little about the spatial layout, you might rely on your past experiences of towns to infer where something is.

Schemas help you interpret and incorporate new information more quickly.

Using neuroimaging techniques as well as virtual reality programs designed to test a participant’s ability to navigate different routes, my team found that there is likely an interdependent relationship between the brain areas that store memories of specific events and areas that store related information across memories when planning to navigate less familiar places.

New routes are more difficult to follow when they differ from your prior experiences. Thus, a stronger schema helps integrate your knowledge of the spatial relationships between locations and landmarks (such as the distance between the post office and the park) with more general knowledge (such as prior route difficulty). This all informs how you choose to navigate.

Navigating daily life

These memory principles help explain why inconsistencies with your previous experiences can make it so difficult to navigate many aspects of daily life.

Imagine you woke up tomorrow and the GPS on your smartphone was no longer available. How will you plan your route to get to your destination?

You might be used to navigating north from your home to the grocery store – but have you ever tried to navigate to that grocery story from a different location? It’s much harder!

Factors such as stress, aging and general cognitive decline can affect brain function and human behavior. Imagine how much harder that new route to the grocery store is for an older adult.

Relating new information to your prior experiences may help strengthen your schema and make navigation easier. And understanding what processes the brain needs to go through to solve these navigation problems can help you understand why getting around can be challenging.

About the Author:

Paulina Maxim, Ph.D. Candidate in Psychology, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Psychology

12 May

Mythos AI is a cybersecurity threat, but it doesn’t rewrite the rules of the game

By Mohammad Ahmad, West Virginia University

The cybersecurity community went on alert when Anthropic announced on April 7, 2026, that its latest and most capable general-purpose large language model, Claude Mythos Preview, had demonstrated remarkable – and unintended – capabilities. The artifical intelligence system was able to find and exploit software vulnerabilities – the most serious type of software bugs – at a rate not seen before.

The news ignited concern among the public, world governments and the information technology sector about the capabilities of today’s AI to undermine cybersecurity, with some people framing the model as a global cybersecurity threat.

Claiming that it would be too risky to release the model, and that the company had the moral responsibility to disclose these vulnerabilities, Anthropic said it would not immediately offer the model to the public. Instead, it granted exclusive access to tech giants to test the model’s capabilities, a process Anthropic dubbed Project Glasswing.

As a cybersecurity researcher, I think Mythos’ capabilities are impressive, but the AI system does not represent a radical departure. Mythos is less a new threat than a mirror reflecting how people behave and how fragile modern systems already are.

What Mythos did

During a controlled evaluation, engineers with minimal security experience prompted Mythos to scan thousands of software codebases for vulnerabilities. The model showed striking capabilities in conducting multistep, autonomous attacks that take experts weeks or even months to put together. Mythos was not only able to discover 271 vulnerabilities in Mozilla’s Firefox, it also developed exploits to take advantage of 181 of those.

Overall, Anthropic’s red team, which takes on the role of an attacker to test defenses, and the United Kingdom’s AI Security Institute reported that Mythos found thousands of zero-day, or previously unreported, vulnerabilities in major operating systems, web browsers and other applications – software flaws that have not yet been patched and can be turned into exploits immediately. National Security Agency officials testing Mythos have been impressed by the tool’s speed and efficiency in finding software vulnerabilities, according to a news report.

Anthropic’s announcement of Mythos and the cybersecurity threat it poses garnered widespread media attention.

Among the most widely reported were Mythos’ ability to identify a dormant 27-year-old security flaw in OpenBSD, a security-focused operating system, and a 16-year-old bug in FFmpeg, a video/audio processing tool. Some of these flaws allow unauthenticated users to gain control of the machines hosting these applications.

Even more striking, the relatively inexperienced engineers running Mythos’ evaluations were able to use Mythos to complete attacks overnight, from finding vulnerabilities to exploiting them – something that can take human experts weeks to do. The model’s ability to chain multiple steps is what surprised Anthropic and organizations that tried it. In an evaluation by the AI Security Institute, Mythos was able to take over a simulated corporate network in three out of 10 tries, the first AI model to succeed at the task.

These results are real. They also paint an incomplete picture in ways that matter.

Where is the breakthrough?

At first glance, Mythos’ breakthrough sounds novel and could signal a new class of cyber threats. However, a closer look suggests something different. The vulnerabilities Mythos found are not new in nature. They generally don’t belong to unknown security flaws, and in many cases they are variations of well-known and well-understood classes of software vulnerabilities.

In cybersecurity, finding new instances of known types of flaws is not unusual. The most successful attacks rely on known, well-defined vulnerabilities that stay overlooked or unpatched. What concerned the researchers was not Mythos changing the nature of finding and exploiting vulnerabilities, but rather the intense scale and speed with which it was able to find and exploit those vulnerabilities.

This is not a breakthrough per se but rather a result of decades of research in both cybersecurity and AI. In that sense, Mythos is the natural – and expected – result of powerful automation and AI integration because it follows the same fundamental procedures used in standard offensive cybersecurity practices. These include scanning for vulnerabilities, identifying patterns and testing exploitability. Mythos and similar emerging models make it possible to chain these steps together at a speed that is hard to fathom.

So why were these vulnerabilities missed in the first place?

It is crucial to understand that not all vulnerabilities are cost effective to fix, and not all vulnerabilities are a priority. Mythos did not discover a new kind of weakness – it exposed the limits of how cybersecurity practitioners search for them.

New tech, age-old dynamic

Mythos highlights an important fact about the reality of cybersecurity threats. System defenders are always at a disadvantage because they need to always succeed. Attackers, however, need to succeed only once to break the security of a system. This cat-and-mouse game will always be the same, and Mythos does not change that – it simply reinforces it.

Mythos follows a familiar dynamic: A tool created to protect can also be used to attack and harm.

“The same improvements that make the model substantially more effective at patching vulnerabilities also make it substantially more effective at exploiting them,” Anthropic officials wrote in a blog post about Mythos.

What once may have required highly specialized skills can now be achieved with significantly less effort, which raises the most important question: Who will benefit first by using tools like Mythos – defenders or attackers?

About the Author:

Mohammad Ahmad, Assistant Professor of Management Information Systems, West Virginia University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

10 May

Yen Speculator Bets jump after intervention, CAD & AUD Bets continue higher as USD Index Bets fall

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (40,321 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (23,817 contracts), the Brazilian Real (20,354 contracts), the Australian Dollar (6,805 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (700 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-5,696 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,815 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,510 contracts), the British Pound (-3,269 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,929 contracts) and Bitcoin (-951 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Yen Speculator Bets jump after intervention, CAD & AUD Bets continue higher as USD Index Bets fall

Highlighting the Currency speculator positions this week was a boost in the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the Brazilian Real positions while the US Dollar Index bets fell by the most since the fall.

First off, the Japanese Yen speculator position jumped by over 40,000 contracts this week after it had previously fallen in four out of the previous five weeks. This has a lot to do with the Bank of Japan intervening in the Currency market last week, as the BOJ has been trying to arrest the Japanese Yen’s fall. Currently, the speculator net position for the Japanese Yen contracts remains in a bearish level for a 10th straight week, with the total net position this week at -61,738 net contracts. The BOJ currency intervention has stemmed the slide in the yen for the time being, but this week’s USD/JPY currency pair closed out the week at 156.68.

The Brazilian Real saw its speculator bets jump this week by over 20,000 net contracts. This is a third consecutive week of positive changes and this week’s boost has pushed the net position over 66,000 bullish contracts. This is the highest level for the Brazilian Real contracts since September 30th of 2025, a span of 31 weeks. In the Futures market, the Brazilian Real continues to be on a strong bullish uptrend against the US Dollar, and this week closed at the highest level since February of 2024.

Canadian Dollar contracts continued their strong weekly gains with a third consecutive weekly rise and a boost by over 23,000 contracts this week. This recent positive sentiment for the Canadian Dollar has taken the net speculator bearish standing down to a total of -14,659 net contracts — the best position (least bearish) of the past six weeks. In the Foreign Exchange markets this week, the Canadian Dollar cooled off after four consecutive gaining weeks, and this week closed out at a 0.7321 exchange level. The CAD is still in an ascending triangle pattern and would need to rise clean above 0.7400 to the upside for a further bullish break out.

The Australian Dollar net position saw a second straight weekly gain and is now at the highest speculator position of the past five weeks. Overall, the Australian Dollar speculator positioning is in a super strong position, considering it’s near the top of its three-year range with a strength score of 98.5%. The Australian Dollar bets have now been in bullish territory for 15 consecutive weeks. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Australian Dollar has continued on a strong uptrend after falling as low as 0.5920 in April of 2025. Since that low, the AUD has ascended by over 20% and now trades at 0.7237 against the US Dollar, the highest level since 2022.

The US Dollar Index saw speculator bets dropped this week by -3,815 contracts and marks the biggest one-week fall since September. The US Dollar Index speculator bets have now declined for four consecutive weeks and have taken the overall net position to a virtual neutral level at just 693 net contracts. The US Dollar Index in the Foreign Exchange markets dipped this week for a second consecutive week, however, it remains in its range that has persisted for almost a year with a low support level of 96.50 and a high resistance level of 100.00 (the USD Index is currently trading at 97.78).

Bitcoin, Mexican Peso, and Brazilian Real lead major Currency price performances.

This week saw Bitcoin lead the pack in price gains with a modest 1.98% rise on the week. The Mexican Peso came in second with a 1.50% gain, while the Brazilian Real was also higher by 1% with a 1.17% uptick. The New Zealand Dollar was higher by approximately 1% this week, while the Swiss Franc rose by 0.58%.

The Euro gained by 0.47%. The Australian Dollar was higher by 0.41%, and the British Pound Sterling rounded out the gainers with a modest uptick of 0.27% on the week.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index tripped by -0.17% this week, while the Japanese Yen was lower by -0.30%. The Canadian Dollar was the biggest negative returner with a -0.67% shortfall.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (99 percent) and the Brazilian Real (89 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (78 percent) and Bitcoin (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the Japanese Yen (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.3 percent)
EuroFX (41.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (42.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (29.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (78.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (67.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (94.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (45.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (88.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (73.7 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (97.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (13 percent) and the EuroFX (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-15 percent), Bitcoin (-13 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-7.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.2 percent)
EuroFX (8.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-20.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-5.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-24.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (12.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-13.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,508 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	30.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.3	35.7	5.4
– Net Position:	693	-1,569	876
– Gross Longs:	17,048	10,035	2,634
– Gross Shorts:	16,355	11,604	1,758
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	52.3	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.3	-2.1

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,712 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	58.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	67.9	5.8
– Net Position:	32,202	-73,379	41,177
– Gross Longs:	217,474	480,886	88,156
– Gross Shorts:	185,272	554,265	46,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.0	56.2	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-9.1	7.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,639 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	65.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	41.7	9.9
– Net Position:	-63,908	65,684	-1,776
– Gross Longs:	62,573	180,932	25,560
– Gross Shorts:	126,481	115,248	27,336
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.5	85.8	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	1.8	2.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -61,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 40,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,059 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	52.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.2	35.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-61,738	59,650	2,088
– Gross Longs:	109,035	186,544	37,725
– Gross Shorts:	170,773	126,894	35,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	66.0	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	0.4	-7.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,221 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	80.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	35.2	20.5
– Net Position:	-34,521	42,861	-8,340
– Gross Longs:	7,145	76,076	11,018
– Gross Shorts:	41,666	33,215	19,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.9	69.4	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	18.7	-17.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 23,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,476 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	49.9	11.9
– Net Position:	-14,659	12,794	1,865
– Gross Longs:	73,650	134,383	30,958
– Gross Shorts:	88,309	121,589	29,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	23.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.7	-3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 78,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 6,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,869 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	33.0	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	70.8	5.4
– Net Position:	78,674	-105,545	26,871
– Gross Longs:	143,214	92,272	42,086
– Gross Shorts:	64,540	197,817	15,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.5	1.5	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.9	7.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -48,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,322 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	85.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.2	27.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-48,251	49,327	-1,076
– Gross Longs:	9,063	72,581	3,486
– Gross Shorts:	57,314	23,254	4,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	89.6	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	24.3	-5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -5,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,823 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	46.9	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	82.7	1.0
– Net Position:	62,127	-66,944	4,817
– Gross Longs:	91,592	87,636	6,627
– Gross Shorts:	29,465	154,580	1,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.1	52.8	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.0	9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 20,354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,443 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.3	24.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	78.1	1.0
– Net Position:	66,797	-70,648	3,851
– Gross Longs:	93,500	31,743	5,099
– Gross Shorts:	26,703	102,391	1,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	10.8	42.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-12.6	0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,392 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	1.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.3	8.1	4.6
– Net Position:	1,441	-1,539	98
– Gross Longs:	19,301	349	1,184
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	1,888	1,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	22.4	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	9.1	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

10 May

Speculator Extremes: Cotton, SOFR 3-Months lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday May 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in at the top of the extreme standings this week as the Cotton speculator level is at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an increase by 47 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 100,682 net contracts this week with a gain of 19,741 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings. The Soybean Oil speculator level resides at an approximate 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a boost of 21 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 168,887 net contracts this week with a fall of -2,925 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the third in the most bullish extreme standings this week with the AUD speculator level also currently at an approximate 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an advance by 4 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 78,674 net contracts this week with a boost of 6,805 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise higher by 8 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 433,384 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 92,644 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Soybeans speculator level sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 4 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 232,198 net contracts this week with a rise of 38,259 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level is at just a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -35 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -1,100,455 net contracts this week with a fall of -347,436 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw no change this week while the speculator position was -20,234 net contracts this week with a boost of 3,409 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year speculator level resides at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -4 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was -1,673,329 net contracts this week with an addition of 35,934 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the NZD speculator level sitting at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -24 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -48,251 net contracts this week with a retreat of -1,929 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

Next, the British Pound speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the GBP speculator level at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -2 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -63,908 net contracts this week with a fall of -3,269 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

08 May

Week Ahead: Dollar faces Trump/Xi & CPI showdown

By ForexTime

Fresh clashes near Strait of Hormuz fuels caution
Trump/Xi summit could influence fate of Iran war
US CPI data among other reports also in sharp focus
FXTM USDInd bearish with key levels at 98.00 and 97.50

The Iran war’s grip on market sentiment shows no sign of loosening with a fresh clash near the Strait of Hormuz leaving investors bracing once again.

But geopolitics may be only half of the story in the week ahead…

A Trump/Xi showdown and US inflation data could lead to heightened volatility across global financial markets:

Monday, 11th May

CNY: China PPI, CPI

Tuesday, 12th May

AUD: Australia NAB business confidence
GER40: Germany CPI, ZEW survey
USDInd: US CPI, Federal budget balance

Wednesday, 13th May

CAD: Canada central bank minutes
EUR: Eurozone GDP, industrial production
US500: US PPI, mortgage applications
OIL: IEA and OPEC release their monthly oil market reports.

Thursday, 14th May

GBP: UK GDP, Industrial production
USDInd: US business inventories, initial jobless claims, retail sales
Trump visits China for meetings with President Xi Jinping

Friday, May 15

JPY: Japan PPI, machine tool orders
NZD: New Zealand food prices, manufacturing PMI
USDInd: US industrial production, empire manufacturing

FXTM’s USDInd has been trapped within a range since early April with geopolitical risk and inflation fears triggering sharp fluctuations.

With prices testing support at 98.00, could a breakout be on the horizon?

Here are 3 key factors that spark big moves:

1) Iran war (Week 11)

As the Iran war enters its 11th week, the global economy is absorbing the pressure from high energy prices and prolonged uncertainty.

The recent clash threatens to fracture a fragile ceasefire as the two sides discuss an end to the war. If no progress is made or talks fall apart this could fuel risk aversion – boosting the USD as a result.

2) US CPI report

The incoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will offer a key read on inflation amid the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (April 2026 vs. Arpil 2025) to rise 3.7% from 3.3%
CPI month-on-month to cool 0.6 from 0.9%
Core CPI year-on-year to rise 2.7% from 2.6%
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.2%

Signs of conflict-induced inflation may boost expectations of the Fed hiking rates.

3) Trump/Xi summit

President Donald Trump will meet President Xi Jinping in China, in what could be a critical moment between the world’s two largest economies.

There will be plenty on the agenda including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which has disrupted China’s energy imports. Should the summit conclude on a positive note and boost hopes of the Hormuz re-opening this may be a welcome development to global markets.

However, if talks breakdown and matters worsen – risk aversion may engulf markets which may boost the dollar.

4) Technical forces

FXTM’s USDInd is respecting a bearish channel on the daily charts.

A solid breakout and daily close above the 200-day SMA could signal a move back toward 99.00and 100.000
Sustained weakness below 98.00 could see prices decline back toward 97.50 and 96.00.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

07 May

UAE’s OPEC exit has been long in the works – and may mark the beginning of a Gulf realignment

By Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Rice University

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will leave the oil cartel weakened at a crucial time. It also illustrates the ongoing tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer and de facto leader.

The UAE announced on April 28, 2026, that it will depart OPEC and OPEC+, an expanded grouping which includes Russia, on May 1, depriving the groups of their third- and fourth-largest oil producer, respectively.

Though the move may seem abrupt, as a close observer of the UAE and intra-Gulf politics, I believe Abu Dhabi’s decision to leave OPEC and go it alone was in the cards for a while and follows years of Abu Dhabi’s complaints about the cartel.

The announcement also follows years of divergence between Emirati and Saudi oil policies, as well as the growth of competitive rivalries between the two countries over wider regional questions. This rift between the two largest Sunni Gulf states burst into the open in December 2025, when competing visions for security in Yemen threatened to reignite civil conflict in the war-torn country.

Unity in the face of Iranian attacks since then should not mask that underlying split, of which the UAE’s OPEC decision is merely the latest manifestation.

The world’s most prominent cartel

OPEC formed in 1960 as a way for the main oil producers to set production limits and therefore control the price of crude around the world.

The UAE has been a member of OPEC since the seven-emirate federation was established in 1971, although Abu Dhabi – the emirate that holds 95% of Emirati oil reserves – has been a member since 1967.

At its height in the mid- and late-1970s, OPEC played a powerful role in reshaping the balance of power between oil producers and consumers, and countering Western dominance in a postcolonial setting of resource nationalization.

While other members have withdrawn from OPEC in recent years – such as Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2024 – the impact of the UAE’s departure is on a far greater scale, affecting about 12% of OPEC’s total oil output.

Furthermore, the exit of the UAE removes one of the few major swing producers from OPEC, weakening the organization’s ability to respond rapidly to changing market conditions in the future.

Diverging Gulf priorities

The UAE has been signaling a potential split for at least five years, when differences of opinion with Saudi Arabia on how to manage oil policy emerged ahead of a November 2020 OPEC+ summit. The rift became openly visible during a subsequent meeting of OPEC+ countries in July 2021.

In both cases, the UAE wished to increase oil production – which had been sharply curtailed by OPEC members during the COVID-19 pandemic – while the Saudis sought to maintain high prices by keeping output lower and prices higher.

In part, this reflects the different circumstances of the two Gulf nations. The Saudis are reliant on higher oil prices to drive the revenues needed to fund its lavish budget and pay for massive infrastructure projects like its Vision 2030 project. The Emirati economy, on the other hand, is more diversified and less directly dependent on oil revenues.

Instead, Abu Dhabi has invested heavily in recent years to expand capacity to be able to increase oil production from 3.4 million barrels a day before the U.S.-Israel war against Iran to 5 million barrels a day by 2027 – and potentially higher later on. This reflects a desire to monetize its reserves and move the oil to market to avoid the risk of stranded assets should global demand fall in any future transition away from fossil fuels.

Shorn of the constraints of OPEC quotas, which the Emiratis have chafed against for years, officials in Abu Dhabi will be able to increase production should it wish to do so once the impasse with Iran is broken and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

Post-Iran war regional shifts

It is clear that UAE leadership is first and foremost intent on doubling down on the pursuit of its national interests, with an emphasis on prioritizing ties with the U.S. – and likely also Israel – over those with countries that Abu Dhabi feels reflect an old world it is now seeking to leave behind.

While the war in Iran may have temporarily overshadowed the eruption of Saudi-Emirati tensions over Yemen and visions for the region, the rift had not been resolved prior to the U.S. and Israeli launch of military operations on Feb. 28.

Comments by prominent Emiratis have suggested that officials in the UAE have paid close attention to which countries have, in their view, stepped up to assist the UAE in times of crisis, and which have not.

The OPEC decision thus reflects a calculation in Abu Dhabi that there is no longer any utility in remaining part of a Saudi-dominated organization. The UAE’s reconsideration of other memberships, such as the Arab League, Organization of Islamic Conference or even the Gulf Cooperation Council, may be next, as the UAE and other regional countries begin to think ahead to an uncertain post-war landscape.

About the Author:

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute, Rice University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

03 May

Canadian Dollar Speculator Bets up strongly for 2nd week as CAD price gains for 4th week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was a jump by the Canadian Dollar (20,358 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (7,052 contracts), Brazilian Real (2,910 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,132 contracts), Bitcoin (321 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (122 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,600 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,599 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,612 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,948 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-475 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Canadian Dollar bets gained strongly for 2nd week as CAD price rises for 4th week

Highlighting the Currency markets this week were the Canadian dollar speculator bets, which rose by over 20,000 contracts this week following last week’s approximate gain of 20,000 contracts as well. Canadian dollar speculators have boosted their positions in the past two weeks following the previous five weeks where speculator bets had declined sharply and brought the overall standing to its lowest level since December. The current standing for speculator bets is still in bearish territory at -38,476 contracts but is at a 67% strength score compared to the past 3-years range illustrating how bearish the CAD has been recently.

The Canadian dollar, as one of the commodity currencies, is typically helped out by higher commodity prices and could see an outlook for a higher upside with higher energy and commodity prices likely to persist going forward. There is also speculation the Bank of Canada (BOC) may be inclined to have a bias of raising interest rates with the economic outlook. The Canadian dollar’s price in the Foreign Exchange market has risen for four consecutive weeks. This week the CAD closed out trading at a 0.7374 exchange rate and above its 200-week moving average. Currently, the CAD is in an ascending triangle pattern with overhead resistance around 0.7400. A break above this could test the highest levels for the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar since September of 2024.

The Australian dollar speculator positions got a boost this week by over 7,000 contracts and halts a three-week streak of declining bullish bets. The overall positioning for the Australian dollar speculators comes in at 71,869 contracts this week, which is an extreme bullish score for the Australian dollar compared to the last three years. The Australian dollar’s strength score is currently at a 94.9% reading compared to these last three years which had seen net positions mainly in bearish territory until January 27th. The Australian dollar currency price in the Foreign Exchange markets has been on a strong bullish run and has risen for five consecutive weeks and in 13 out of the past 15 weeks. The Aussie closed out the week at 0.7204, and this marks the highest weekly price close since May of 2022. The AUD is currently sitting right at resistance in the 0.7200 area and a further break above this could bring 0.7350 into play.

Next up, the Brazilian real rose by roughly 3,000 speculator contracts this week, and has risen for two consecutive weeks, as well as three out of the past four weeks. The real has seen a consistently bullish net contract position dating back to February of 2025. The real currently has a total net standing of 46,443 contracts and the current positioning is at a strength score of 73.7% of its three-year range — bullish, but not extremely bullish as of yet. The BRL price has been in a strong uptrend in the Currency markets and has risen for six out of the past seven weeks. Currently the BRL, which closed at 0.2006 this week, is at the highest weekly close since March of 2024, a span of over two years.

Finally, the US Dollar Index saw a slight decline in its speculative bets this week for the third consecutive week. Right now, the US Dollar Index has a total net position of 4,508. Compared to the past three years, this positioning is almost right down the middle with a 56.3% strength score signalling an almost a neutral position for speculators at this time compared to the past three years. In the FX markets, the US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in a range between 96.50 on the downside and with prices being capped around the 100.00 level on the upside. The current pricing is very close to the middle of that range, and we will have to wait to see if the US Dollar Index decisively breaks either of those barriers before evaluating the next levels to be.

Japanese Yen (BOJ Intervention) and Australian Dollar lead Currency markets price performance.

Over the past week, the Japanese Yen was the highest mover in the Foreign Exchange market, with a 1.62% gain over the past five days. The Yen’s sharp gain this week was reportedly helped out by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Currency intervention. This was the first time the BOJ had intervened in the Currency markets in the past couple of years, and this was to stem a slide in the Yen’s performance. The intervention helped cut the US Dollar strength against the Yen as the USD/JPY Currency pair dropped from an exchange rate mid-week over 160.70 to approximately around the 156.00 area. The USD/JPY pair closed the week out at the 157.08 exchange.

Coming in second for the week was the Australian Dollar, which rose by 0.83% and has now risen by 4.79% over the past 30 days. Over the past 90 days, the Australian Dollar has been up by 7.75% against the US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar came in next with a 0.59% gain and was followed by the Swiss Franc, which rose by 0.53%. The New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.45%, while the Brazilian Real was close behind at 0.44%, and the British Pound Sterling was also not too far behind with a 0.38% rise. Rounding out the week for the gainers was the Euro, which edged up by a small 0.13%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was lower by -0.18%, followed by the Mexican Peso, which fell by -0.27%, and Bitcoin came in as the biggest decliner with a -0.57% shortfall.

Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has seen the biggest rise with a roughly 15% gain, followed by the Brazilian Real, which is up by 5.86% over the past 30 days. The only market lower over the past 30 days is the US Dollar Index with a -1.91% decline.

Over the past 90 days, the Brazilian Real is the performance leader with an 8.42% increase, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 7.75%. On the downside, the US Dollar Index is lower by -1.14% and is followed by Bitcoin, which is lower over the past 90 days by a modest -0.54%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (97 percent) and the Australian Dollar (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (74 percent), Canadian Dollar (68 percent) and the US Dollar Index (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (12 percent) and the British Pound (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (23 percent) and the Swiss Franc (30 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.6 percent)
EuroFX (42.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (24.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (67.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (73.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.6 percent)
Bitcoin (97.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.7 percent)

Bitcoin & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the EuroFX (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (2 percent), the British Pound (2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-27 percent) was the leader in the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-20 percent), Canadian Dollar (-17 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.3 percent)
EuroFX (5.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-24.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-20.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-16.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-40.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (1.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-26.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-13.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.5 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (15.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,983 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	26.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	44.2	5.9
– Net Position:	4,508	-5,404	896
– Gross Longs:	17,180	8,119	2,687
– Gross Shorts:	12,672	13,523	1,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	41.9	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-1.2	-6.4

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -5,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	58.6	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	68.0	5.9
– Net Position:	35,712	-75,137	39,425
– Gross Longs:	217,091	469,715	86,558
– Gross Shorts:	181,379	544,852	47,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	55.6	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-5.7	4.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -60,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,039 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	66.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	42.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-60,639	64,120	-3,481
– Gross Longs:	59,577	175,790	25,368
– Gross Shorts:	120,216	111,670	28,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	85.2	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-2.4	3.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -102,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,460 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	54.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.0	27.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-102,059	99,270	2,789
– Gross Longs:	106,530	201,527	43,285
– Gross Shorts:	208,589	102,257	40,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	76.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	7.4	13.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -1,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,273 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	79.2	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.2	33.8	21.7
– Net Position:	-35,221	42,729	-7,508
– Gross Longs:	6,359	74,562	12,960
– Gross Shorts:	41,580	31,833	20,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	69.1	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.3	21.4	-13.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:
Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 20,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,834 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	60.2	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	45.5	11.0
– Net Position:	-38,476	37,143	1,333
– Gross Longs:	66,517	152,035	29,088
– Gross Shorts:	104,993	114,892	27,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	32.8	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	17.5	-11.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 7,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,817 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.4	34.7	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	69.8	6.4
– Net Position:	71,869	-97,385	25,516
– Gross Longs:	136,909	96,356	43,136
– Gross Shorts:	65,040	193,741	17,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	5.1	93.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-1.6	1.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 2,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,454 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	84.4	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.3	27.5	5.9
– Net Position:	-46,322	47,550	-1,228
– Gross Longs:	9,044	70,524	3,716
– Gross Shorts:	55,366	22,974	4,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	87.6	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.6	26.6	-5.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,701 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.3	44.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	80.6	1.0
– Net Position:	67,823	-72,704	4,881
– Gross Longs:	103,697	90,261	6,932
– Gross Shorts:	35,874	162,965	2,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	48.9	49.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	0.5	-0.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,533 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	34.9	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	68.5	0.6
– Net Position:	46,443	-50,794	4,351
– Gross Longs:	88,492	52,756	5,272
– Gross Shorts:	42,049	103,550	921
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	25.0	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	1.9	0.9

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,071 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.4	0.8	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.3	11.6	5.1
– Net Position:	2,392	-2,332	-60
– Gross Longs:	17,431	175	1,046
– Gross Shorts:	15,039	2,507	1,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.1	4.7	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-10.5	-7.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

03 May

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Oil, Wheat & Ultra 10-Year Bonds lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday April 28th.

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in tied at the top of the most bullish extreme standings this week as the Soybean Oil speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an advance by 21 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 171,812 net contracts this week and rose to a new all-time high with a gain of 2,731 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra 10-Year

The Ultra 10-Year speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is also now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an advance by 47 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered -27,840 net contracts this week with a boost of 45,355 contracts in speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings as well. The Wheat speculator level resides at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a lift of 22 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was 866 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 26,403 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 12 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position was 2,392 net contracts this week with a edge higher of 321 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Soybean Meal speculator level sits at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 17 percentage points this week and the speculator position was 143,101 net contracts this week with an increase of 6,646 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

On the downside, the Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -23,643 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,220 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 2-Year speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -23 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -1,709,263 net contracts this week with a rise of 34,090 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction of -27 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -46,322 net contracts this week with a weekly advance of 2,132 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level sitting at a 13 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -38 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -2,322 net contracts this week with a reduction of -11,761 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the GBP speculator level resides at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain of 2 percentage points this week and the speculator position totaled -60,639 net contracts this week with a drop by -8,600 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

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