Archive for Opinions – Page 18

A Big Fall Is Coming

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities shares his thoughts on the gold sector and one stock he is looking to buy back into.

Gold has not shown any strength here.

These are not bullish market actions.

Weakness is already showing with gold, down US$22 at the time of this article.

A big fall is coming.

An interesting EW view from @ElephantCapita2

Wave 4 correction coming.

Would give 160 on XAU, then new highs coming.

Wait for re-entry to our best big gold stocks.

North American Gold Stocks

This is one for the history books.

100% ratings here!

Too much enthusiasm here:

Here likely to pull back to at least 10. Up 70$ in 2025, and up 120% in 18 months.

Look to buy back into Northern Star Resources Ltd. (NST:ASX) below AU$13 sometime in September or October.

ASX Gold Sector

ASX gold index is back to 10,000.

There are too many gaps in the ASX gold index.

Head the markets!

Important Disclosures:

Barry Dawes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
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Metals Opinions

09 Aug

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (11,377 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (676 contracts) also seeing a small positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,275 contracts), the EuroFX (-7,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,237 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,466 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,343 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,987 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,874 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,742 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-493 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

Highlighting the currency speculator positioning this week, the Mexican peso saw the most bullish rise through August 5th. This was the third straight week the Peso has seen improving speculator sentiment, and the fifth time out of the last six weeks speculator positions have risen for the Peso. This increase in sentiment has brought the Peso positions to their highest level in 13 weeks, with the current standing now at a total of +68,055 contracts.

Peso pricing against the US Dollar this week rose by approximately 1.55%. Over the last 30 days, the Peso is up by 1.34%, while over the last 90 days, the Peso is higher by 10%.

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling speculator positions fell sharply for the fourth straight week. Overall, the British Pound speculator positions have now fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks, for a total decline over that time by -84,937 contracts. These speculator reductions have taken the overall speculator position from +42,857 contracts on June 17th to this week’s level of -33,303 contracts. The overall standing has now been in a negative or bearish position for two consecutive weeks, marking the first bearish level since February of this year.

Denting the GBP’s speculator sentiment was the Bank of England’s interest rate reduction this week that took off 25 basis points. It was the fifth rate reduction since last August and brings the interest rate to 4%.

Prices this week: Bitcoin leads with 2.82% Gain

Overall, Bitcoin saw the highest weekly change with a gain of almost 3% over the last five days. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin is up by nearly 40%.

The Brazilian Real rose by 2.32% this week, followed by the Peso. The British Pound Sterling rose close to 1.5% for the week, while the Australian Dollar saw a higher exchange rate by just about 1%. The New Zealand Dollar increased by 0.68%. The Euro was higher by 0.63%. Rounding out the gaining currencies was the Canadian Dollar, with a quarter of a percent gain on the week.

Losing ground this week was the Japanese Yen, which fell about a quarter percent. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.39%, and the US Dollar index was down by half a percent on the week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Euro

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Euro (73 percent) and the Japanese Yen (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (65 percent), Mexican Peso (63 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the British Pound (17 percent) and the Australian Dollar (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.4 percent)
EuroFX (72.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (58.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.0 percent)
Bitcoin (20.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (1.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-32.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-26.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	39.4	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.3	21.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-7,030	5,365	1,665
– Gross Longs:	11,399	11,847	4,540
– Gross Shorts:	18,429	6,482	2,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.1	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-2.9	32.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	75.4	5.5
– Net Position:	115,959	-163,545	47,586
– Gross Longs:	247,357	453,569	92,215
– Gross Shorts:	131,398	617,114	44,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	25.5	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	0.3	-11.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	52.8	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	37.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-33,303	32,643	660
– Gross Longs:	65,635	108,854	29,306
– Gross Shorts:	98,938	76,211	28,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	77.4	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.2	31.7	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.5	40.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.4	9.5
– Net Position:	82,006	-87,341	5,335
– Gross Longs:	160,258	136,734	37,362
– Gross Shorts:	78,252	224,075	32,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	28.9	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.2	-22.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	75.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	34.3	22.3
– Net Position:	-27,377	33,113	-5,736
– Gross Longs:	6,806	60,532	12,062
– Gross Shorts:	34,183	27,419	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	53.5	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	20.1	-25.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -79,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	72.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.9	33.2	12.9
– Net Position:	-79,420	84,877	-5,457
– Gross Longs:	23,589	156,289	22,218
– Gross Shorts:	103,009	71,412	27,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	49.6	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	14.6	-23.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	67.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.6	17.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-83,560	82,545	1,015
– Gross Longs:	23,988	110,361	21,761
– Gross Shorts:	107,548	27,816	20,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	79.1	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.2	-2.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	44.9	10.6
– Net Position:	-4,833	6,159	-1,326
– Gross Longs:	11,085	27,755	3,780
– Gross Shorts:	15,918	21,596	5,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	41.1	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	11.3	-30.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.7	36.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.7	1.7
– Net Position:	68,055	-71,691	3,636
– Gross Longs:	105,231	63,351	6,628
– Gross Shorts:	37,176	135,042	2,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	37.4	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-8.2	-4.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	36.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	67.8	1.1
– Net Position:	24,598	-27,830	3,232
– Gross Longs:	51,209	32,730	4,179
– Gross Shorts:	26,611	60,560	947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	34.3	39.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	16.3	-1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.6	6.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	89.0	1.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,501	1,195	306
– Gross Longs:	23,039	1,660	1,460
– Gross Shorts:	24,540	465	1,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	83.2	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-11.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 Aug

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Nasdaq & Palladium lead Top Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in at the top of the most extreme standings this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 5,854 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,860 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 27 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 33,836 net contracts this week with a small decrease of -1,118 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position takes the next position in the extreme standings this week with the Palladium speculator level sitting at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 16 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,335 net contracts this week with a drop of -482 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position slides in next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 86 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -228,367 net contracts this week with a reduction of -11,554 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week with the Sugar speculator level residing at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -76,972 net contracts this week with a reduction by -14,824 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in also tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,536,877 net contracts this week with a decline of -24,994 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position also comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the USD Index speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -7,030 net contracts this week with a drop of -2,874 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Next, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fourth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is currently at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -43 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 141,829 net contracts this week with a reduction of -14,194 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fifth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge lower by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -81,610 net contracts this week with a small increase of 1,061 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

06 Aug

The Nuclear Revolution Awaits

Source: Stephen McBride (8/6/25)

Stephen McBride of The Rational Optimist shares his thoughts on how nuclear energy can be reshaped.

A tiny uranium pellet the size of a gummy bear holds energy matching 140 oil barrels. It’s humanity’s most environmentally friendly, secure power resource.

Every legitimate expert acknowledges this fact.

So what’s preventing universal nuclear implementation?

In brief: We smothered brilliance with bureaucracy. Since the 70s, constructing new facilities has practically been prohibited in America. It demanded $30 billion plus 15+ years battling regulatory obstacles.

I’ve got exciting updates. During my recent visits to Austin and Detroit, I connected with top-tier nuclear innovators. I’ve known these innovators for some time and consider many friends. They unanimously shared something unprecedented:

“Regulation is finally becoming a solved problem.”

One entrepreneur mentioned his microreactor (a small nuclear reactor or “SMR”) could become operational within a year.

This represents massive progress! We’re developing an extensive analysis about SMRs and approximately twelve startups racing to launch one. More information coming soon.

Today, let’s examine remaining nuclear “challenges.” What about waste management? And fuel acquisition? We’ll explore entrepreneurs tackling both issues.

First, a quick overview of major regulatory shifts.

In 1974, a bureaucratic entity called the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) emerged. Guess how many innovative reactor designs it’s approved since inception?

None!

Just two reactors have begun commercial operations during the NRC’s existence, compared to 133 beforehand.

We’re finally addressing this imbalance. The President has authorized four executive directives to accelerate nuclear development. These orders initiate five significant changes:

Change 1: They establish a target of expanding America’s nuclear capacity fourfold by 2050.

Change 2: They accelerate “advanced nuclear” development (specifically small modular reactors or “SMRs”) through test programs and expedited environmental assessments. They mandate the NRC to authorize new reactors within 18 months.

Change 3: They instruct the Department of Energy (DoE) to sanction at least three reactors before mid-2026. Essentially, Trump wants three SMRs functioning for America’s 250th anniversary.

Change 4: They classify nuclear facilities powering AI operations as “defense-critical infrastructure.” Constructing nuclear-powered computing centers on military installations creates a brilliant workaround. It potentially enables projects to bypass lengthy NRC evaluations.

Change 5: Most crucially in my assessment: They request the NRC to reconsider its “As Low as Reasonably Achievable” (ALARA) regulation. You experience more radiation consuming a single banana than living beside a nuclear plant for twelve months. Yet under ALARA guidelines, even that isn’t considered sufficiently safe!

This “zero banana rule” has effectively prohibited nuclear construction in America. I believe the President should have commanded the NRC to eliminate this rule completely. Nevertheless, this represents advancement.

Nuclear entrepreneurs have anticipated this opportunity throughout their careers.

As Matt Loszak, founder of Aalo Atomics said, “We just have to wait for the executive orders to be implemented and we’re off to the races.”

In Detroit, Valar Atomics founder Isaiah Taylor said. . .

“The problem is no longer in the policy side. It’s now in the engineering side.”

One engineering challenge involves fuel acquisition.

*Stephen with Valar Atomics founder Isaiah Taylor*

Fuel access concerned many entrepreneurs I encountered. Even if prepared to activate their microreactors immediately, many would face obstacles. They lack necessary fuel.

How did this happen? Because America regulated its domestic nuclear fuel sector into extinction, surrendering supply chain control to Russia and China. This scenario mirrors what occurred with drone technology.

Converting uranium from extraction to reactor-ready involves four fundamental stages:

Mining. Organizations like Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE) (Canada) mine uranium in locations including Canada, Kazakhstan, Australia, Namibia, Niger, and Russia. These six nations produce over 85% of global uranium. Raw materials undergo processing into a substance called yellowcake.

Conversion. Yellowcake undergoes milling and conversion into uranium hexafluoride (UF6) enabling gasification for enrichment. Orano (France) and Rosatom (Russia) dominate over 50% of this market.
Enrichment. Nuclear “gas” undergoes enrichment through centrifugal spinning. Three corporations, Urenco (European consortium), Orano, and Rosatom control the enrichment market.
Fuel creation. Companies including Westinghouse (U.S.) and Framatome (France) compress and heat enriched uranium powder into solid ceramic pieces.

America possesses abundant underground uranium reserves. However, excessive regulation has minimized processing capabilities.

By 2023, 99% of fuel utilized in U.S. reactors was imported — with substantial quantities from Russia.

Meet innovators addressing this crisis . . .

Scott Nolan, partner at Peter Thiel’s investment firm Founders Fund, was among earliest backers of Radiant Nuclear, a venture developing portable microreactors. But Radiant encountered a major obstacle: fuel scarcity.

Specifically, limited access to high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), premium uranium ideal for powering most microreactors.

Only Russia and China manufacture HALEU at scale. However, the U.S. plans to prohibit Russian uranium imports starting 2028. Leaving China — an unpredictable trade partner.

Accessing HALEU in America resembles Soviet-era bread queues. The DoE maintains limited reserves. Entrepreneurs must complete paperwork, endure months-long waits, and hope for allocations – merely to test prototypes. “Please sir, can I have some more?”

Scott Nolan established General Matter to produce HALEU fuel and revitalize America’s enrichment industry.

Meeting Scott at Detroit’s Reindustrialize summit, he shared “I spent over a year at Founders Fund searching for an American enrichment company to invest in, only to find there wasn’t one. So, we built our own.”

General Matter assembled elite professionals from organizations including SpaceX, Tesla, Anduril, and several American national nuclear laboratories. It was among four companies selected by the DoE to initiate American HALEU production.

If General Matter succeeds, it will achieve for uranium enrichment what SpaceX accomplished for rocketry: restore American competitiveness.

J.D. Rockefeller amassed historic wealth through Standard Oil.

Not through oil drilling. But by controlling the supply chain’s most valuable component: crude refinement.

Standard Nuclear aims to replicate this for nuclear energy. Its mission: become a scalable, affordable, entirely American nuclear fuel provider — the nuclear industry’s Standard Oil.

HALEU, optimal fuel for next-generation reactors, often comes encased in ceramic protection called TRISO, maintaining fuel density and safety.

TRISO appears as indestructible billiard ball-sized spheres. Each contains sufficient energy to power thousands of households.

TRISO resists melting. It prevents leakage. It contains radioactivity internally, even during extreme accidents. That’s why the DoE designates it Earth’s most robust nuclear fuel. Even the NRC acknowledges it as ‘functional containment.’

One entrepreneur described TRISO’s remarkable properties: “You know those giant concrete containment domes that surround old reactors in case something goes wrong? With TRISO, we’ve basically engineered the dome into every single fuel particle.”

TRISO provides microreactors with clean, compact, uninterrupted power, eliminating meltdown risks and massive containment structures.

China recently conducted safety testing by deactivating a nuclear reactor’s cooling system. The TRISO-powered reactor absorbed heat. The core cooled naturally. No alternative nuclear fuel demonstrates this capability.

Predictably, China remains the sole nation producing significant TRISO quantities.

Standard Nuclear will help America catch up.

Standard Nuclear represents genuine innovation. The company emerged following another company’s bankruptcy after its primary investor died. The team was commercializing TRISO, previously produced exclusively in America’s national laboratories.

Following the investor’s death, their commitment remained so strong that over 40 employees continued working approximately eight months without compensation. Some sold homes or downsized to maintain operations.

Their perseverance succeeded. In 2024, the organization reemerged as Standard Nuclear with $42 million in funding.

Standard Nuclear operates from Oak Ridge, Tennessee, formerly known as “Atomic City,” where Manhattan Project uranium enrichment occurred. It currently represents the largest TRISO manufacturing facility outside China.

Standard Nuclear recently secured $5 million in contracts and established offtake agreements exceeding $100 million with microreactor ventures including Radiant, Antares, and

NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE:NASDAQ).

“ROS never addresses the problem of nuclear waste storage.”

ROS Member John D highlighted this omission. Let me correct this.

Imagining radioactive material seeping from corroded containers seems frightening. Reality shows nuclear waste represents a resolved challenge. Innovators are transforming it into another opportunity.

Fundamentals: All nuclear waste ever generated throughout America — spanning 60 years — would occupy a single football field, stacked under 20 feet high.

Atomic byproducts have never harmed any American. Spent materials remain securely stored in sealed containers across 60+ locations throughout 34 states.

Why merely store it? SMR startups are creating reactors utilizing waste.

Oklo Inc.’s (OKLO:NYSE) Aurora microreactor, compact enough for a spacious living room, converts used fuel into fresh energy. Like automobiles running on exhaust fumes!

The most frustrating aspect regarding nuclear waste “problems” involves ignoring existing solutions for 60 years. Argonne National Laboratory constructed reactors capable of recycling nuclear waste into fuel during the 1960s!

Why isn’t fuel recycling standard practice? Blame political decisions. President Carter suspended reprocessing during the 1970s. Reagan reversed the prohibition, but companies had already pivoted elsewhere.

Consider Deep Isolation. I recently spoke with CEO Rod Baltzer. His company developed a methodology for permanently securing nuclear waste underground, utilizing directional drilling technology and their Universal Canister System.

Deep Isolation drills tunnels approximately pizza-box width into solid rock formations, reaching three miles beneath surface level. The tunnel’s bottom curves, creating an L-shaped pathway. They then insert sealed, corrosion-resistant containers filled with nuclear waste, designed for millennial timeframes.

Deep Isolation ensures waste disappears safely, permanently, and economically.

The genuine threat isn’t nuclear waste. It’s unrealized nuclear facilities, leaving us dependent on dirtier energy alternatives. Innovators are transforming perceived problems into productive power solutions.

Envision July 4, 2026. . .

We’re celebrating America’s 250th anniversary. The initial three microreactors operate on American soil. These engineered marvels generate clean, safe, “constantly available” energy.

After meeting numerous nuclear entrepreneurs, I recognize their determination toward this objective. Teams sleep in production facilities. Engineers work 18-hour shifts. Founders dedicate their lives toward achieving that July 2026 milestone.

America’s prosperous future requires expanded energy access, not reduction. Remember: Rich, low-energy nations don’t exist.

In 1973 President Nixon proposed establishing 1,000 nuclear power plants before 2000. Better delayed than abandoned.

With 1,000 microreactors distributed across America, we could desalinate seawater and transform arid deserts into fertile land. Following hurricanes, mobile reactors could deploy, powering medical facilities and water systems within hours.

Building this future depends on communities nationwide embracing nuclear technology.

That’s where your role begins. Demonstrate to friends and relatives that nuclear represents our cleanest, safest energy resource. Challenge misinformed opposition.

Address questions resembling this inquiry: “What might terrorists accomplish capturing a microreactor?” Simple answer: they’d have years of clean energy, but concerns about weaponization are unfounded.

Perhaps most importantly, share nuclear innovation stories with younger generations! The Second Nuclear Age will create talent shortages. It requires engineers, technicians, machinists, and policy advocates.

The primary career aspiration among children today is… social media influencer. Disappointing. Let’s transform that to nuclear engineer!

At the Rational Optimist Society, we’re embracing nuclear technology and much more. We help our members understand, appreciate, and take advantage of the innovations revolutionizing our world for the better, so they can confidently flourish as change continues to accelerate.

You can join us here.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Cameco Corp.
Stephen McBride: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Energy Opinions

01 Aug

Urban trees vs. cool roofs: What’s the best way for cities to beat the heat?

By Ian Smith, Boston University and Lucy Hutyra, Boston University

When summer turns up the heat, cities can start to feel like an oven, as buildings and pavement trap the sun’s warmth and vehicles and air conditioners release more heat into the air.

The temperature in an urban neighborhood with few trees can be more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit (5.5 Celsius) higher than in nearby suburbs. That means air conditioning works harder, straining the electrical grid and leaving communities vulnerable to power outages.

There are some proven steps that cities can take to help cool the air – planting trees that provide shade and moisture, for example, or creating cool roofs that reflect solar energy away from the neighborhood rather than absorbing it.

But do these steps pay off everywhere?

We study heat risk in cities as urban ecologists and have been exploring the impact of tree-planting and reflective roofs in different cities and different neighborhoods across cities. What we’re learning can help cities and homeowners be more targeted in their efforts to beat the heat.

Trees like these in Boston can help keep neighborhoods cooler on hot days.
Yassine Khalfalli/Unsplash, CC BY

The wonder of trees

Urban trees offer a natural defense against rising temperatures. They cast shade and release water vapor through their leaves, a process akin to human sweating. That cools the surrounding air and reduces afternoon heat.

Adding trees to city streets, parks and residential yards can make a meaningful difference in how hot a neighborhood feels, with blocks that have tree canopies nearly 3 F (1.7 C) cooler than blocks without trees.

Two maps of New York City show how vegetation matches cooler areas by temperature. — Comparing maps of New York’s vegetation and temperature shows the cooling effect of parks and neighborhoods with more trees. In the map on the left, lighter colors are areas with fewer trees. Light areas in the map on the right are hotter.
NASA/USGS Landsat

But planting trees isn’t always simple.

In hot, dry cities, trees often require irrigation to survive, which can strain already limited water resources. Trees must survive for decades to grow large enough to provide shade and release enough water vapor to reduce air temperatures.

Annual maintenance costs – about US$900 per tree per year in Boston – can surpass the initial planting investment.

Most challenging of all, dense urban neighborhoods where heat is most intense are often too packed with buildings and roads to grow more trees.

How cool roofs can help on hot days

Another option is “cool roofs.” Coating rooftops with reflective paint or using light-colored materials allows buildings to reflect more sunlight back into the atmosphere rather than absorbing it as heat.

These roofs can lower the temperature inside an apartment building without air conditioning by about 2 to 6 F (1 to 3.3 C), and can cut peak cooling demand by as much as 27% in air-conditioned buildings, one study found. They can also provide immediate relief by reducing outdoor temperatures in densely populated areas. The maintenance costs are also lower than expanding urban forests.

However, like trees, cool roofs come with limits. Cool roofs work better on flat roofs than sloped roofs with shingles, as flat roofs are often covered by heat-trapping rubber and are exposed to more direct sunlight over the course of an afternoon.

Cities also have a finite number of rooftops that can be retrofitted. And in cities that already have many light-colored roofs, a few more might help lower cooling costs in those buildings, but they won’t do much more for the neighborhood.

By weighing the trade-offs of both strategies, cities can design location-specific plans to beat the heat.

Choosing the right mix of cooling solutions

Many cities around the world have taken steps to adapt to extreme heat, with tree planting and cool roof programs that implement reflectivity requirements or incentivize cool roof adoption.

In Detroit, nonprofit organizations have planted more than 166,000 trees since 1989. In Los Angeles, building codes now require new residential roofs to meet specific reflectivity standards.

In a recent study, we analyzed Boston’s potential to lower heat in vulnerable neighborhoods across the city. The results demonstrate how a balanced, budget-conscious strategy could deliver significant cooling benefits.

For example, we found that planting trees can cool the air 35% more than installing cool roofs in places where trees can actually be planted.

However, many of the best places for new trees in Boston aren’t in the neighborhoods that need help. In these neighborhoods, we found that reflective roofs were the better choice.

By investing less than 1% of the city’s annual operating budget, about US$34 million, in 2,500 new trees and 3,000 cool roofs targeting the most at-risk areas, we found that Boston could reduce heat exposure for nearly 80,000 residents. The results would reduce summertime afternoon air temperatures by over 1 F (0.6 C) in those neighborhoods.

While that reduction might seem modest, reductions of this magnitude have been found to dramatically reduce heat-related illness and death, increase labor productivity and reduce energy costs associated with building cooling.

Not every city will benefit from the same mix. Boston’s urban landscape includes many flat, black rooftops that reflect only about 12% of sunlight, making cool roofs that reflect over 65% of sunlight an especially effective intervention. Boston also has a relatively moist growing season that supports a thriving urban tree canopy, making both solutions viable.

Two aerial images show very different building coloring in two cities. — Phoenix, left, already has a lot of light-colored roots, compared with Boston, right, where roofs are mostly dark.
Imagery © Google 2025.

In places with fewer flat, dark rooftops suitable for cool roof conversion, tree planting may offer more value. Conversely, in cities with little room left for new trees or where extreme heat and drought limit tree survival, cool roofs may be the better bet.

Phoenix, for example, already has many light-colored roofs. Trees might be an option there, but they will require irrigation.

Getting the solutions where people need them

Adding shade along sidewalks can do double-duty by giving pedestrians a place to get out of the sun and cooling buildings. In New York City, for example, street trees account for an estimated 25% of the entire urban forest.

Cool roofs can be more difficult for a government to implement because they require working with building owners. That often means cities need to provide incentives. Louisville, Kentucky, for example, offers rebates of up to $2,000 for homeowners who install reflective roofing materials, and up to $5,000 for commercial businesses with flat roofs that use reflective coatings.

Two charts show improvements — In Boston, planting trees, left, and increasing roof reflectivity, right, were both found to be effective ways to cool urban areas.
Ian Smith et al. 2025

Efforts like these can help spread cool roof benefits across densely populated neighborhoods that need cooling help most.

As climate change drives more frequent and intense urban heat, cities have powerful tools for lowering the temperature. With some attention to what already exists and what’s feasible, they can find the right budget-conscious strategy that will deliver cooling benefits for everyone.

About the Author:

Ian Smith, Research Scientist in Earth & Environment, Boston University and Lucy Hutyra, Distinguished Professor & Chair of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

31 Jul

California farmers identify a hot new cash crop: Solar power

By Jacob Stid, Michigan State University; Annick Anctil, Michigan State University, and Anthony Kendall, Michigan State University

Imagine that you own a small, 20-acre farm in California’s Central Valley. You and your family have cultivated this land for decades, but drought, increasing costs and decreasing water availability are making each year more difficult.

Now imagine that a solar-electricity developer approaches you and presents three options:

You can lease the developer 10 acres of otherwise productive cropland, on which the developer will build an array of solar panels and sell electricity to the local power company.
You can select 1 or 2 acres of your land on which to build and operate your own solar array, using some electricity for your farm and selling the rest to the utility.
Or you can keep going as you have been, hoping your farm can somehow survive.

Thousands of farmers across the country, including in the Central Valley, are choosing one of the first two options. A 2022 survey by the U.S. Department of Agriculture found that roughly 117,000 U.S. farm operations have some type of solar device. Our own work has identified over 6,500 solar arrays currently located on U.S. farmland.

Our study of nearly 1,000 solar arrays built on 10,000 acres of the Central Valley over the past two decades found that solar power and farming are complementing each other in farmers’ business operations. As a result, farmers are making and saving more money while using less water – helping them keep their land and livelihood.

A hotter, drier and more built-up future

Perhaps nowhere in the U.S. is farmland more valuable or more productive than California’s Central Valley. The region grows a vast array of crops, including nearly all of the nation’s production of almonds, olives and sweet rice. Using less than 1% of all farmland in the country, the Central Valley supplies a quarter of the nation’s food, including 40% of its fruits, nuts and other fresh foods.

The food, fuel and fiber that these farms produce are a bedrock of the nation’s economy, food system and way of life.

But decades of intense cultivation, urban development and climate change are squeezing farmers. Water is limited, and getting more so: A state law passed in 2014 requires farmers to further reduce their water usage by the mid-2040s.

The trade-offs of installing solar on agricultural land

When the solar arrays we studied were installed, California state solar energy policy and incentives gave farm landowners new ways to diversify their income by either leasing their land for solar arrays or building their own.

There was an obvious trade-off: Turning land used for crops to land used for solar usually means losing agricultural production. We estimated that over the 25-year life of the solar arrays, this land would have produced enough food to feed 86,000 people a year, assuming they eat 2,000 calories a day.

There was an obvious benefit, too, of clean energy: These arrays produced enough renewable electricity to power 470,000 U.S. households every year.

But the result we were hoping to identify and measure was the economic effect of shifting that land from agricultural farming to solar farming. We found that farmers who installed solar were dramatically better off than those who did not.

They were better off in two ways, the first being financially. All the farmers, whether they owned their own arrays or leased their land to others, saved money on seeds, fertilizer and other costs associated with growing and harvesting crops. They also earned money from leasing the land, offsetting farm energy bills, and selling their excess electricity.

Farmers who owned their own arrays had to pay for the panels, equipment and installation, and maintenance. But even after covering those costs, their savings and earnings added up to US$50,000 per acre of profits every year, 25 times the amount they would have earned by planting that acre.

Farmers who leased their land made much less money but still avoided costs for irrigation water and operations on that part of their farm, gaining $1,100 per acre per year – with no up-front costs.

The farmers also conserved water, which in turn supported compliance with the state’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act water use reduction requirements. Most of the solar arrays were installed on land that had previously been irrigated. We calculated that turning off irrigation on this land saved enough water every year to supply about 27 million people with drinking water or irrigate 7,500 acres of orchards. Following solar array installation, some farmers also fallowed surrounding land, perhaps enabled by the new stable income stream, which further reduced water use.

Changes to food and energy production

Farmers in the Central Valley and elsewhere are now cultivating both food and energy. This shift can offer long-term security for farmland owners, particularly for those who install and run their own arrays.

Recent estimates suggest that converting between 1.1% and 2.4% of the country’s farmland to solar arrays would, along with other clean energy sources, generate enough electricity to eliminate the nation’s need for fossil fuel power plants.

Though many crops are part of a global market that can adjust to changes in supply, losing this farmland could affect the availability of some crops. Fortunately, farmers and landowners are finding new ways to protect farmland and food security while supporting clean energy.

One such approach is agrivoltaics, where farmers install solar designed for grazing livestock or growing crops beneath the panels. Solar can also be sited on less productive farmland or on farmland that is used for biofuels rather than food production.

Even in these areas, arrays can be designed and managed to benefit local agriculture and natural ecosystems. With thoughtful design, siting and management, solar can give back to the land and the ecosystems it touches.

Farms are much more than the land they occupy and the goods they produce. Farms are run by people with families, whose well-being depends on essential and variable resources such as water, fertilizer, fuel, electricity and crop sales. Farmers often borrow money during the planting season in hopes of making enough at harvest time to pay off the debt and keep a little profit.

Installing solar on their land can give farmers a diversified income, help them save water, and reduce the risk of bad years. That can make solar an asset to farming, not a threat to the food supply.

About the Authors:

Jacob Stid, Ph.D. student in Hydrogeology, Michigan State University; Annick Anctil, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, and Anthony Kendall, Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

31 Jul

Is the Bitcoin Cycle Dead?

Source: Stephen McBride (7/29/25)

Stephen McBride of RiskHedge shares his thoughts on the Bitcoin cycle, and what investors should really be paying attention to.

“3 up, 1 down.” This represents the historical rhythm that Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency values have typically followed.

We refer to it as the four-year cycle. It was a sequence so reliable, you could synchronize your timepiece to it, as demonstrated by this chart of Bitcoin’s yearly performance:

Numerous investors continue to operate according to this four-year framework. However, as I’ll demonstrate, the conventional four-year pattern has likely concluded, and that’s actually positive news.

January 11, 2024 . . .

The moment Bitcoin’s rhythm broke.

What occurred that day?

The initial Bitcoin ETFs commenced trading in the United States.

Bitcoin was previously a fringe asset. To acquire it, you needed to establish a cryptocurrency wallet, transfer your funds to a suspicious-looking exchange, and hope it remained secure. And incorporating it into your retirement portfolio was virtually impossible. Too complicated for most people.

Currently, you can purchase Bitcoin as straightforwardly as Apple Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ) or Tesla Inc. (TSLA:NASDAQ).

ETFs unlocked access to Wall Street capital. And funds rapidly streamed in. BlackRock, Inc.’s (BLK:NYSE) Bitcoin ETF — the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) — emerged as the fastest-expanding ETF ever. Within less than two years, $87 billion flowed into it. It represents the most successful ETF introduction in history, by a substantial margin. For context, the biggest gold ETF — the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) — has existed for over twenty years and manages $100 billion. I anticipate IBIT will exceed GLD within the coming months.

Hello, infinite bid. . .

The reality that anyone can easily purchase BTC and Ethereum (ETH) through an ETF has fundamentally altered cryptocurrency markets permanently.

The “infinite bid” from wealth administrators constitutes the most significant positive force in cryptocurrency’s existence.

Cryptocurrency is now substantially controlled by professional investors who are theoretically less susceptible to excessive speculation. Though I’ll share a secret: Many I’m familiar with remain impulsive gamblers.

This suggests the explosive peaks and devastating 80% collapses we’ve become accustomed to will likely transform into more consistent upward trends interrupted by less severe corrections.

The traditional four-year cycle has likely concluded, and that’s actually positive news. Less frenzied expansion. More sustainable growth. This shift mirrors financial market evolution. Early stock markets experienced complete panics every couple of years, while contemporary markets face crises every 20–30 years.

Cryptocurrency is following the same maturation trajectory, just compressed into a briefer timeframe.

This consistent influx of capital didn’t exist in cryptocurrency . . . at least until ETFs arrived.

When tens of millions of Americans receive paychecks biweekly, they invest in stocks through their retirement accounts and 401(k)s. This generates ongoing demand for stocks, which I’d suggest establishes a minimum price threshold.

Now, the planet’s largest asset managers — including BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, and others — are advising their clients to acquire and maintain BTC in their 401(k)s.

The barriers have collapsed. Billions of dollars of Wall Street capital are entering cryptocurrency for the first time ever. There’s $8 trillion allocated in 401(k) plans currently. If cryptocurrency captures merely 1% of 401(k) assets, that’s $80 billion in fresh money entering the market.

If you’re curious about our position in the Bitcoin cycle, you’re focusing on the wrong issue.

The more relevant question is: Which cryptocurrency asset will Wall Street target next?

Bitcoin was the first “legitimate” cryptocurrency that institutions could engage with. Everything else was too ambiguous. The regulatory uncertainty was excessive.

But that’s changing as well.

The current U.S. administration has made its stance clear. They intend to “make America the crypto capital of the world” (their words).

In recent weeks, Congress approved several pro-cryptocurrency bills that will provide the industry with essential regulatory clarity. Regulation has shifted from risk to opportunity. And now, the entire cryptocurrency space will become accessible to Wall Street. That’s driving investment currently.

Ethereum stands as the obvious successor.

It offers considerably more functionality than Bitcoin. It’s rapidly becoming the settlement foundation for a new global financial infrastructure.

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD:NASDAQ) is developing its tokenized stock platform on Ethereum. A selection of companies creating products on Ethereum includes: PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL:NASDAQ), Visa Inc. (V:NYSE), Stripe, Fidelity,JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM:NYSE), Mastercard Inc. (MA:NYSE), and Shopify Inc. (SHOP:NASDAQ).

Wall Street is finally recognizing this potential.

Inflows into ETH ETFs are accelerating exponentially.

From July 2024 to June 2025, a total of $4.2 billion entered these funds. This month alone (July 2025), witnessed $4.4 billion pour into the ETH ETFs! That indicates Wall Street is moving into cryptocurrency in a big way.

One final thing: the Bitcoin cycle may be dead, but the opportunity in crypto is very much alive. I’ll have more to say on emerging crypto developments in future issues of my twice-weekly investing letter The Jolt. If you’d like to join, you can sign up here.

Important Disclosures:

Stephen McBride: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own: Ethereum. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Cryptocurrencies Opinions

31 Jul

What’s Next For Gold?

Source: Adrian Day (7/29/25)

Global Analyst Adrian Day reviews initial results from Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS:TSX) and takes a look at gold and gold stocks.

Altius Minerals Corp. (ALS:TSX) reported royalty revenue lower than both the previous and the year-ago quarter, as well as below estimates. Attributable revenue fell CA$2.3 million from CA$15 million in the first quarter, largely due to weak iron ore royalties, which accounted for CA$1.7 million of the decline.

Base metals revenue also fell due mostly to the timing of deliveries; potash was also down due to maintenance downtime. Given the temporary nature of these issues and higher prices, we expect both segments to recovery this quarter. These three areas were also down relative to the year-ago quarter, with iron ore revenue falling from a particularly strong $4.1 million to $1.1million.

Overall, revenue fell from over $20 million in the year-ago quarter to $12.7 million last quarter. Renewable energy saw high revenue as projects ramp up. The near-term focus continues to be the disposition of Altius’ 1.5% royalty on Anglo’s Arthur Deposit, with a pro forma value, based on the sale of Orogen’s similar 1% royalty, of CA$515 million, or just over 40% of Altius’ market cap.

Altius remains a Buy based on its NAV and potential gains from the sale of its Arthur royalty (or more).

TOP PICKS this week, in addition to above, include Nestle SA (NESN:VX; NSRGY:OTC), Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE), Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ), and Fox River Resources Corp. (FOX:CSE).

THE U.S. DOLLAR After falling 11% in the first half, the worst first-half since 1973, the dollar is oversold; we should not expect another imminent sharp decline; markets don’t move in straight lines. However, a recovery may be slow and modest rather than any V-shaped rebound. Tariffs and other policies are making foreign investors reduce exposure to U.S. assets. When a foreigner buys, for example, U.S. stocks, bonds, or real estate, he must first convert his currency into dollars, boosting the dollar. A reduced appetite for U.S. assets, therefore, reduces demand for dollars. We are not forecasting a dollar collapse any time soon — other major currencies hardly represent fiscal rectitude — but at the margin, appetite for the Euro, British pound, yen, and commodity currencies (including the Canadian dollar, already up this year from 0.69 cents to 73) will increase, along with an increased demand for gold.

Gold Buying Trends and Stock Valuations

Central bank buying picked up in May, as gross sales declined meaningfully, the latest month for which data is available; though above multi-year levels, buying remains below the levels of 2023 and 2024. The People’s Bank of China added for the seventh straight month, after a pause last fall. Meanwhile, Chinese non-official buying, including inflows to China gold ETFs, has dwindled to almost nothingness, after surging earlier in the year. Global ETF inflows have picked up, however, the remain soft in the U.S. There were some inflows in the first three weeks of June, but then buying fell off again, with the largest ETF, GLD, seeing over $900 million in net outflows since June 24th. Commodity traders continue to be positive, but have reduced their positions all year (to little more than half of the February peak).

A record 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, while none expects a decrease, this according to a survey from the World Gold Council. Over 40% of respondents expected their own reserves to increase, and none a decrease. After another strong quarter of central bank buying, gold is now the second-largest reserve asset, surpassing the Euro.

Main Drivers of Gold Remain Intact

For now, the major driver of gold buying revolves around possible changes in the global monetary regime, most notably central bank diversification in the face of dollar weaponization. Nothing that has happened this year diminishes that drive. Given this, it makes sense that U.S. demand has been weak, since concerns about monetary regime changes are more muted. But a major and long-lasting change in that regime, with the U.S. dollar losing its status as the sole reserve currency, along with less willingness to hold dollars internationally, most assuredly will have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and investor sentiment (cf. Britain in the 1950s to 1970s, when the pound fell from being worth five dollars to par, before Margaret Thatcher rescued the country).

There have been other factors supporting gold, of course, as diverse as the Trump-Powell tiff and the Middle East. But we have yet to see the macroeconomic environment, the things that traditionally drive gold, turn in gold’s favor. The U.S. has been characterized by a strong economy, low and falling inflation, high interest rates (and positive real rates), and, until this year, a relatively strong dollar. This is precisely the opposite of the environment conducive to gold. All of this is changing, if slowly, and as the narrative shifts, U.S. interest in gold will increase.

Gold Stock Sentiment Remains Weak

Add to the economic environment the fact that the S&P continues to go up month after month (as does the so-called Magnificent 7, despite some individual names stumbling), means that investors do not see the need to buy gold stocks. After a minor flurry into gold miner ETFs in late May early June, the flows reversed, with the GDX seeing $570 million of outflows in the past month, over $3.4 billion for the year to date. The dichotomy between prices and flows has never been greater.

Generalist interest is even weaker. Almost 80% of investment advisors have been zero and 1% exposure to gold in accounts they manage (and I bet for most of them, it’s close to zero than to 1%). Non-gold mutual funds have virtually no exposure. A total of 322 of the largest funds holds just 35 gold stocks. Only three funds own GLD among their top 20 positions, four own Newmont, and one owns Barrick.

Crowded Trade? Anything But

Staggeringly and unbelievably, global fund managers think that gold is the “most crowded” trade, according to a survey from Bank of America, with 58% of managers choosing gold against 22% saying the Magnificent 7, and only 1% saying the U.S. two-year Treasury. The number selecting gold (in May, the latest month) was up on April, despite the flat gold price since then. This is a reflection of managers who missed the bull move, in my view.

S&P investors, of course, are already lagging, with not only gold stocks but gold itself beating the S&P over the past four-, three-, two- and one-year periods, as well as year to Source: Bloomberg Date, and increasingly handsomely so (with the XAU up over 50% this year against less than 8% for the S&P, including dividends). In the graph are gold (white), the XAU (blue) and the S&P (red) year to date.

Gold Stocks Remain Undervalued, as Value Increases

Oscar Wilde berated those who know the price of everything but the value of nothing. Certainly, the 50% plus increase in the XAU indices this year has led many to instinctively think that the gold stocks are expensive. But the stocks are still extremely undervalued.

As the price of gold moves up, from the low $1,600s less than three years ago, to today $3,350, the value of the gold in the ground moves up; the price-to-NAV has therefore not increased over that period. As the price of gold has moved up far more rapidly than the cost of mining, the margins have expanded and with it corporate cash flows increased; thus the price-to-cash flow multiples have declined.

So we see the gold-standard of mining companies, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE), trading in its lowest quartile of price-to-cash flow metric in 40 years; while Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX:TSX; B:NYSE), the #2 gold producer, is trading in the lowest decile of price-to-NAV in its history. Normally, when the price of the commodity goes up, we expect to see multiple expansion not contraction. Commodity prices are trading at 100-year lows relative to U.S. stocks. The same is true of mining stocks generally,

Sources: S&P Market Intelligence; Statista not only gold stocks; they are trading at significant 100-year lows, and less than 10% of their late-1960 relative valuation peaks.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Altius Minerals Corp., Franco-Nevada Corp., Fox Riv Res Corp., Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Barrick Mng Corp.
Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Adrian Day Disclosures

Adrian Day’s Global Analyst is distributed for $990 per year by Investment Consultants International, Ltd., P.O. Box 6644, Annapolis, MD 21401. (410) 224-8885. www.AdrianDayGlobalAnalyst.com. Publisher: Adrian Day. Owner: Investment Consultants International, Ltd. Staff may have positions in securities discussed herein. Adrian Day is also President of Global Strategic Management (GSM), a registered investment advisor, and a separate company from this service. In his capacity as GSM president, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein, and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. This is not a solicitation for GSM. Views herein are the editor’s opinion and not fact. All information is believed to be correct, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The owner and editor are not responsible for errors and omissions. © 2023. Adrian Day’s Global Analyst. Information and advice herein are intended purely for the subscriber’s own account. Under no circumstances may any part of a Global Analyst e-mail be copied or distributed without prior written permission of the editor. Given the nature of this service, we will pursue any violations aggressively.

Metals Opinions

31 Jul

How wind and solar power helps keep America’s farms alive

By Paul Mwebaze, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Drive through the plains of Iowa or Kansas and you’ll see more than rows of corn, wheat and soybeans. You’ll also see towering wind turbines spinning above fields and solar panels shining in the sun on barns and machine sheds.

For many farmers, these are lifelines. Renewable energy provides steady income and affordable power, helping farms stay viable when crop prices fall or drought strikes.

But some of that opportunity is now at risk as the Trump administration cuts federal support for renewable energy.

Wind power brings steady income for farms

Wind energy is a significant economic driver in rural America. In Iowa, for example, over 60% of the state’s electricity came from wind energy in 2024, and the state is a hub for wind turbine manufacturing and maintenance jobs.

For landowners, wind turbines often mean stable lease payments. Those historically were around US$3,000 to $5,000 per turbine per year, with some modern agreements $5,000 to $10,000 annually, secured through 20- to 30-year contracts.

Nationwide, wind and solar projects contribute about $3.5 billion annually in combined lease payments and state and local taxes, more than a third of it going directly to rural landowners.

A U.S. map shows the strongest wind power potential in the central U.S., particularly the Great Plains and Midwestern states. — States throughout the Great Plains and Midwest, from Texas to Montana to Ohio, have the strongest onshore winds and onshore wind power potential. These are also in the heart of U.S. farm country. The map shows wind speeds at 100 meters (nearly 330 feet), about the height of a typical land-based wind turbine.
NREL

These figures are backed by long-term contracts and multibillion‑dollar annual contributions, reinforcing the economic value that turbines bring to rural landowners and communities.

Wind farms also contribute to local tax revenues that help fund rural schools, roads and emergency services. In counties across Texas, wind energy has become one of the most significant contributors to local property tax bases, stabilizing community budgets and helping pay for public services as agricultural commodity revenues fluctuate.

In Oldham County in northwest Texas, for example, clean energy projects provided 22% of total county revenues in 2021. In several other rural counties, wind farms rank among the top 10 property taxpayers, contributing between 38% and 69% of tax revenue.

The construction and operation of these projects also bring local jobs in trucking, concrete work and electrical services, boosting small-town businesses.

The U.S. wind industry supports over 300,000 U.S. jobs across construction, manufacturing, operations and other roles connected to the industry, according to the American Clean Power Association.

Renewable energy has been widely expected to continue to grow along with rising energy demand. In 2024, 93% of all new electricity generating capacity was wind, solar or energy storage, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected a similar percentage in 2025 as of June.

Solar can cut power costs on the farm

Solar energy is also boosting farm finances. Farmers use rooftop panels on barns and ground-mounted systems to power irrigation pumps, grain dryers and cold storage facilities, cutting their power costs.

Some farmers have adopted agrivoltaics – dual-use systems that grow crops beneath solar panels. The panels provide shade, helping conserve water, while creating a second income path. These projects often cultivate pollinator-friendly plants, vegetables such as lettuce and spinach, or even grasses for grazing sheep, making the land productive for both food and energy.

Federal grants and tax credits that were significantly expanded under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act helped make the upfront costs of solar installations affordable.

However, the federal spending bill signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, 2025, rolled back many clean energy incentives. It phases down tax credits for distributed solar projects, particularly those under 1 megawatt, which include many farm‑scale installations, and sunsets them entirely by 2028. It also eliminates bonus credits that previously supported rural and low‑income areas.

Without these credits, the upfront cost of solar power could be out of reach for some farmers, leaving them paying higher energy costs. At a 2024 conference organized by the Institute of Sustainability, Energy and Environment at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, where I work as a research economist, farmers emphasized the importance of tax credits and other economic incentives to offset the upfront cost of solar power systems.

What’s being lost

The cuts to federal incentives include terminating the Production Tax Credit for new projects placed in service after Dec. 31, 2027, unless construction begins by July 4, 2026, and is completed within a tight time frame. The tax credit pays eligible wind and solar facilities approximately 2.75 cents per kilowatt-hour over 10 years, effectively lowering the cost of renewable energy generation. Ending that tax credit will likely increase the cost of production, potentially leading to higher electricity prices for consumers and fewer new projects coming online.

The changes also accelerate the phase‑out of wind power tax credits. Projects must now begin construction by July 4, 2026, or be in service before the end of 2027 to qualify for any credit.

Meanwhile, the Investment Tax Credit, which covers 30% of installed cost for solar and other renewables, faces similar limits: Projects must begin by July 4, 2026, and be completed by the end of 2027 to claim the credits. The bill also cuts bonuses for domestic components and installations in rural or low‑income locations. These adjustments could slow new renewable energy development, particularly smaller projects that directly benefit rural communities.

While many existing clean energy agreements will remain in place for now, the rollback of federal incentives threatens future projects and could limit new income streams. It also affects manufacturing and jobs in those industries, which some rural communities rely on.

Renewable energy also powers rural economies

Renewable energy benefits entire communities, not just individual farmers.

Wind and solar projects contribute millions of dollars in tax revenue. For example, in Howard County, Iowa, wind turbines generated $2.7 million in property tax revenue in 2024, accounting for 14.5% of the county’s total budget and helping fund rural schools, public safety and road improvements.

In some rural counties, clean energy is the largest new source of economic activity, helping stabilize local economies otherwise reliant on agriculture’s unpredictable income streams. These projects also support rural manufacturing – such as Iowa turbine blade factories like TPI Composites, which just reopened its plant in Newton, and Siemens Gamesa in Fort Madison, which supply blades for GE and Siemens turbines. The tax benefits in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act helped boost those industries – and the jobs and local tax revenue they bring in.

On the solar side, rural companies like APA Solar Racking, based in Ohio, manufacture steel racking systems for utility-scale solar farms across the Midwest.

An example of how renewable energy has helped boost farm incomes and keep farmers on their land.

As rural America faces economic uncertainty and climate pressures, I believe homegrown renewable energy offers a practical path forward. Wind and solar aren’t just fueling the grid; they’re helping keep farms and rural towns alive.

About the Author:

Paul Mwebaze, Research Economist at the Institute for Sustainability, Energy and Environment, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

30 Jul

How the world’s nuclear watchdog monitors facilities around the world – and what it means that Iran kicked it out

By Anna Erickson, Georgia Institute of Technology

What happens when a country seeks to develop a peaceful nuclear energy program? Every peaceful program starts with a promise not to build a nuclear weapon. Then, the global community verifies that stated intent via the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Once a country signs the treaty, the world’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, provides continuous and technical proof that the country’s nuclear program is peaceful.

The IAEA ensures that countries operate their programs within the limits of nonproliferation agreements: low enrichment and no reactor misuse. Part of the agreement allows the IAEA to inspect nuclear-related sites, including unannounced surprise visits.

These are not just log reviews. Inspectors know what should and should not be there. When the IAEA is not on site, cameras, tamper-revealing seals on equipment and real-time radiation monitors are working full-time to gather or verify inside information about the program’s activities.

This travel case holds a toolkit containing equipment for inspecting nuclear facilities.
Dean Calma/IAEA, CC BY

Safeguards toolkit

The IAEA safeguards toolkit is designed to detect proliferation activities early. Much of the work is fairly technical. The safeguards toolkit combines physical surveillance, material tracking, data analytics and scientific sampling. Inspectors are chemists, physicists and nuclear engineers. They count spent fuel rods in a cooling pond. They check tamper seals on centrifuges. Often, the inspectors walk miles through hallways and corridors carrying heavy equipment.

That’s how the world learned in April 2021 about Iran pushing uranium enrichment from reactor-fuel-grade to near-weapons-grade levels. IAEA inspectors were able to verify that Iran was feeding uranium into a series of centrifuges designed to enrich the uranium from 5%, used for energy programs, to 60%, which is a step toward the 90% level used in nuclear weapons.

Around the facilities, whether for uranium enrichment or plutonium processing, closed-circuit surveillance cameras monitor for undeclared materials or post-work activities. Seals around the facilities provide evidence that uranium gas cylinders have not been tampered with or that centrifuges operate at the declared levels. Beyond seals, online enrichment monitors allow inspectors to look inside of centrifuges for any changes in the declared enrichment process.

Seals verify whether nuclear equipment or materials have been used between onsite inspections.

When the inspectors are on-site, they collect environmental swipes: samples of nuclear materials on surfaces, in dust or in the air. These can reveal if uranium has been enriched to levels beyond those allowed by the agreement. Or if plutonium, which is not used in nuclear power plants, is being produced in a reactor. Swipes are precise. They can identify enrichment levels from a particle smaller than a speck of dust. But they take time, days or weeks. Inspectors analyze the samples at the IAEA’s laboratories using sophisticated equipment called mass spectrometers.

In addition to physical samples, IAEA inspectors look at the logs of material inventories. They look for diversion of uranium or plutonium from normal process lines, just like accountants trace the flow of finances, except that their verification is supported by the ever-watching online monitors and radiation sensors. They also count items of interest and weigh them for additional verification of the logs.

Beyond accounting for materials, IAEA inspectors verify that the facility matches the declared design. For example, if a country is expanding centrifuge halls to increase its enrichment capabilities, that’s a red flag. Changes to the layout of material processing laboratories near nuclear reactors could be a sign that the program is preparing to produce unauthorized plutonium.

Losing access

Iran announced on June 28, 2025, that it has ended its cooperation with the IAEA. It removed the monitoring devices, including surveillance cameras, from centrifuge halls. This move followed the news by the IAEA that Iran’s enrichment activities are well outside of allowed levels. Iran now operates sophisticated uranium centrifuges, like models IR-6 and IR-9.

Removing IAEA access means that the international community loses insight into how quickly Iran’s program can accumulate weapon-grade uranium, or how much it has produced. Also lost is information about whether the facility is undergoing changes for proliferation purposes. These processes are difficult to detect with external surveillance, like satellites, alone.

An alternative to the uranium enrichment path for producing nuclear weapons material is plutonium. Plutonium can’t be mined, it has to be produced in a nuclear reactor. Iran built a reactor capable of producing plutonium, the IR-40 Heavy Water Research Reactor at the Arak Nuclear Complex.

Iran modified the Arak reactor under the now-defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to make plutonium production less likely. During the June 2025 missile attacks, Israel targeted Arak’s facilities with the aim of eliminating the possibility of plutonium production.

With IAEA access suspended, it won’t be possible to see what happens inside the facility. Can the reactor be used for plutonium production? Although a lengthier process than the uranium enrichment path, plutonium provides a parallel path to uranium enrichment for developing nuclear weapons.

Continuity of knowledge

North Korea expelled IAEA inspectors in 2009. Within a few years, they restarted activities related to uranium enrichment and plutonium production in the Yongbyon reactor. The international community’s information about North Korea’s weapons program now relies solely on external methods: satellite images, radioactive particles like xenon – airborne fingerprints of nuclear activities – and seismic data.

What is lost is the continuity of the knowledge, a chain of verification over time. Once the seals are broken or cameras are removed, that chain is lost, and so is confidence about what is happening at the facilities.

When it comes to IAEA inspections, there is no single tool that paints the whole picture. Surveillance plus sampling plus accounting provide validation and confidence. Losing even one weakens the system in the long term.

The existing safeguards regime is meant to detect violations. The countries that sign the nonproliferation treaty know that they are always watched, and that plays a deterrence role. The inspectors can’t just resume the verification activities after some time if access is lost. Future access won’t necessarily enable inspectors to clarify what happened during the gap.

About the Author:

Anna Erickson, Professor of Nuclear and Radiological Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Opinions – Page 18

Commitment of Trades in Gold

North American Gold Stocks

ASX Gold Sector

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

Prices this week: Bitcoin leads with 2.82% Gain

Currencies Data:

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Euro

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Nasdaq

Palladium

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

5-Year Bond

US Dollar Index

WTI Crude Oil

Soybean Meal

Envision July 4, 2026. . .

The wonder of trees

How cool roofs can help on hot days

Choosing the right mix of cooling solutions

Getting the solutions where people need them

A hotter, drier and more built-up future

The trade-offs of installing solar on agricultural land

Changes to food and energy production

Gold Buying Trends and Stock Valuations

Main Drivers of Gold Remain Intact

Gold Stock Sentiment Remains Weak

Crowded Trade? Anything But

Gold Stocks Remain Undervalued, as Value Increases

Wind power brings steady income for farms

Solar can cut power costs on the farm

What’s being lost

Renewable energy also powers rural economies

Safeguards toolkit

Losing access

Continuity of knowledge