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Speculators add to Japanese & European Bets while US Dollar & Commodity Currencies Bets Slide

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (14,881 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,048 contracts), the Euro (6,100 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,087 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,412 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (280 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,997 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,218 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,123 contracts), Bitcoin (-662 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-372 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

RoundUp: Speculators continued to add to Japanese & European currencies while US Dollar & Commodity currencies see lower bets

The speculative landscape for the currency futures this week continued to be a mixed bag with some major currencies seeing sentiment gains versus the US Dollar while others continued to see weak sentiment levels persist.

The US Dollar Index futures saw slightly higher speculator contracts this week with a small gain of 280 contracts. But overall, the US Dollar Index bets have fallen in three out of the past five weeks and by a total of -9,300 contracts over these past five weeks, bringing the total bullish position to just +7,468 contracts (down by more than 50% of 3 weeks ago). The Dollar Index price has remained in a short-term downtrend that started in the new year and has taken the price from over 109.00 to the current level of approximately 104.00. The 102.50 and the very significant level of 100.00 still linger below as major support barriers if the downtrend continues.

The Euro speculator positions have continued to see positive sentiment with gains in six straight weeks and the overall position has risen by +129,950 contracts in the last six weeks through Tuesday. The Euro standing for speculators is at the highest level since September after a 20-week spell in bearish territory from October to early March. The Euro futures price trades around the 1.0825 level currently, up from around the 1.0250 levels to end 2024 but would need to breakthrough the tough 1.1250 resistance to see a strong breakout to the upside and perhaps, a new Euro bull market.

The British pound sterling led the currencies in bullish bets on the week and overall, the GBP speculator positions have risen for eight straight weeks through Tuesday. This has brought the overall spec standing to a +44,283 contract bullish position – the highest since November. The GBP futures price has been on a bullish run since the beginning of the new year and is currently right at a significant overhead resistance level of 1.3000. The test of this level will determine the next path for the GBP as a breakthrough above 1.3000 could see a retest of the 2024 high (just below 1.3500) or we could see a breakdown and testing of lower levels (200-weekly ma at 1.2715 & previous support around 1.2500-1.2650).

The Japanese yen speculators boosted their bets this week for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks with a total +154,787 contract gain over that time. This week’s spec level is the third highest level on record at a total of +125,376 contracts for the yen and demonstrates how bullish speculators are on the currency. However, it remains to be seen if this level of sentiment can propel the JPY to higher price levels. The yen remains in a historically weak position versus the US Dollar as the USDJPY trades right around the 150.00 level and the currency pair has been bid up relatively quickly anytime there is a dip below this threshold. There is going to need a sustained push below the 150.00 level to get traction on a yen bullish case.

The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars (commodity currencies) are all in similar situations currently in terms of speculator positioning. All three sport strength scores (current levels compared to last 3-years of spec bets) of 30 or under with the Canadian dollar at 30, Australian at 21 and the New Zealand currency at 16. Recently, the New Zealand dollar speculator positions fell to an all-time record low of -55,765 contracts on March 4th. Perhaps, the worst of the sentiment is over for these currencies in this down cycle but we would need to see a sustained turning of the bearish positions in conjunction with price trends coming out of the deep downtrends all three currencies are in now.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (77 percent), the Mexican Peso (59 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (21 percent), the US Dollar Index (22 percent) and the Swiss Franc (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.6 percent)
EuroFX (53.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (51.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (26.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.5 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (49 percent) and the Brazilian Real (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (34 percent), the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the Mexican Peso (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-16.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.2 percent)
EuroFX (49.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (22.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (37.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.7	4.7	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.1	31.9	8.5
– Net Position:	7,468	-7,945	477
– Gross Longs:	22,699	1,385	2,953
– Gross Shorts:	15,231	9,330	2,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	78.4	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	16.7	-7.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 65,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	55.8	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	70.8	7.0
– Net Position:	65,525	-100,316	34,791
– Gross Longs:	189,796	375,753	81,743
– Gross Shorts:	124,271	476,069	46,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	47.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.5	-47.8	23.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.0	25.5	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	52.0	13.5
– Net Position:	44,283	-50,682	6,399
– Gross Longs:	109,016	48,843	32,226
– Gross Shorts:	64,733	99,525	25,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	41.2	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-26.7	41.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.8	30.6	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	75.3	11.4
– Net Position:	125,376	-135,740	10,364
– Gross Longs:	160,474	92,999	44,965
– Gross Shorts:	35,098	228,739	34,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	3.9	86.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.2	-19.7	-8.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	82.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	28.8	22.2
– Net Position:	-37,593	46,102	-8,509
– Gross Longs:	4,178	70,830	10,519
– Gross Shorts:	41,771	24,728	19,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	74.6	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-12.5	27.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -129,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	83.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	33.6	12.5
– Net Position:	-129,534	140,196	-10,662
– Gross Longs:	17,948	234,774	24,617
– Gross Shorts:	147,482	94,578	35,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	73.8	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-9.2	2.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -77,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	66.3	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.6	20.6	15.7
– Net Position:	-77,446	82,329	-4,883
– Gross Longs:	28,124	119,381	23,317
– Gross Shorts:	105,570	37,052	28,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	79.0	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	7.1	-0.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -41,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	78.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.9	26.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-41,567	42,865	-1,298
– Gross Longs:	13,435	64,617	4,082
– Gross Shorts:	55,002	21,752	5,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	82.3	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-9.6	9.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.1	28.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	70.7	3.4
– Net Position:	59,039	-58,694	-345
– Gross Longs:	89,477	38,556	4,376
– Gross Shorts:	30,438	97,250	4,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	44.0	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-23.3	12.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.2	27.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	66.0	1.2
– Net Position:	40,349	-42,553	2,204
– Gross Longs:	70,030	29,411	3,556
– Gross Shorts:	29,681	71,964	1,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	9.0	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.4	-38.7	10.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,841 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.0	3.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.9	7.2	4.3
– Net Position:	1,179	-1,150	-29
– Gross Longs:	24,376	945	1,207
– Gross Shorts:	23,197	2,095	1,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.0	34.7	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-36.3	-6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

30 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Yen, Live Cattle, Steel & Silver lead weekly Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position continues to be at the top of the extremes list and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 22.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 125,376 net contracts (just below the recent record high) this week with a bump up by 2,412 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 94.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.4 this week. The speculator position registered 117,987 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 14,562 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 4.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,771 net contracts this week with a dip by -635 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 14.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 60,950 net contracts this week with a small decline of -1,348 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level sits at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 37.4 this week.

The speculator position was 40,349 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -372 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at just a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,900,087 net contracts this week with a small gain of 5,853 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.0 this week. The speculator position was -54,006 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,702 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 7.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -49,278 net contracts this week with a drop by -17,071 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 11.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.1 this week. The speculator position was -82,548 net contracts this week with a reduction of -6,069 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 16.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 9.0 this week. The speculator position was -41,567 net contracts this week with a decline by -1,123 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

28 Mar

High soybean prices in Zambia and Malawi may make chicken costly too: lack of competition is to blame

By Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, University of Johannesburg and Namhla Landani, University of Johannesburg

Poultry is one of the cheapest protein sources for the growing population of the east and southern Africa region. That makes soybeans critical to food security in the region, as they are an important input in chicken feed.

Soybean pricing and production dynamics have been challenging for Zambia and Malawi, threatening poultry production in the region.

Poultry feed makes up 60%-70% of the total cost of poultry production. Soybean prices directly affect the affordability of poultry and the ability of producers to be competitive. Small-scale independent poultry producers in particular have a hard time because they buy feed from the open market and are too small to determine prices. Large producers source feed from their own operations and determine soybean prices.

Figure 1: From soybeans to poultry

Source: Authors compilation

Zambia and Malawi are the key soybean producers in east and southern Africa. Both countries were hit hard in 2024 by climate change related weather and by the behaviour of players in the soybean market, including processors and traders.

Zambia’s soybean production fell by 74% because of poor rains and also because of farmers being squeezed. Large buyers had negotiated very low prices in previous years, so farmers planted less.

Malawi’s production also fell (20%), but much less than Zambia’s. Yet the surge in soybean prices in Malawi by 48% between May 2024 and November 2024 was out of proportion with the drop in production, and even surpassed Zambian prices (Figure 2). Malawian prices were the highest in the region, even though it produced enough to export.

We are economists at the African Market Observatory, which monitors prices of staple foods and conducts research on market dynamics. We analyse market concentration and barriers to entry, within and across countries in east and southern Africa, and we do in-depth field work.

Our work shows that competition issues, such as the ability of large buyers to influence prices and high margins, are at the heart of the surge in prices and low production in Malawi and Zambia. The climate-related weather effects are an additional factor.

Figure 2: Soybean prices in Zambia, Malawi and South Africa (benchmark) (3-month moving averages)

Market outcomes

In Zambia, dominant buyers of soybean offered farmers very low prices during the 2023 season – well below US$400/t and the South African benchmark (Figure 2). This meant that farmers planted less than half the 2023 crop in the 2024 season.

Crops were also affected by poor rainfall. Malawi’s 2024 production fell by 20% because of the worst drought in 100 years. The drop in production was lower than expected, demonstrating that farmers can adapt to weather changes. Prices still rose, however, driven by the highly concentrated soybean trading and processing market.

Cheapest source of proteins

Poultry is one of the cheapest sources of protein and has one of the lowest environmental impacts. It is essential that the value chain works well from feed to chicken rearing and becomes more resilient to extreme weather events.

The experience of 2024 shows what can go wrong.

Poultry demand in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow more than fourfold by 2050. Producers will need affordable feed.

Among them are many small-scale independent producers who rely on competitive markets for their inputs. Yet we found that with the escalating soybean and feed prices in Malawi from late 2021, and higher prices for day-old chicks, small independent producers had negative margins, meaning they made a loss in the second half of 2021. High feed prices undermine the competitiveness of Malawi’s poultry industry.

Aside from South Africa (which relies on genetically modified soybean), Zambia and Malawi have been the largest producers in the region. These countries have been exporting around half of their production (including soycake) to neighbouring countries with larger populations such as Tanzania and Kenya.

Zambia’s production plummet

Between 2020 and 2023, Zambia’s soybean production grew from 297,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes (Figure 3). In 2024, its production collapsed by 74% to 170,000 tonnes. This sharp decline was primarily due to farmers opting to plant less soybean because of the low prices offered from processors in 2023 (Figure 2). Farmers bought 50% less soybean seed for the 2024 season than the 2023 season.

Figure 3: Soybean production in Zambia and Malawi

With limited storage facilities available for farmers in most countries in the region, including Zambia, farmers typically have to sell to traders and processors shortly after harvest.

In Zambia, soybeans are produced by many small farmers, so they compete to sell their crop to a few main processors in a concentrated market. As a result, these processors have greater power to influence the terms of trade, such as price. This was especially evident in 2023 when processors offered farmers lower prices (Figure 2).

Poor rainfall linked to the 2023/24 El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is the warming of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, causing drought in southern Africa while inducing heavy rainfalls and floods in eastern Africa, did have an impact across southern Africa, including Malawi and Zambia. While Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania recorded above average rainfall, their soybean output is low.

Resilience to climate change impacts requires deepening and diversifying agriculture production across countries and regional trade to meet demand.

Soybean prices in Malawi remain high but Zambia’s prices stabilise

Malawi’s prices increased rapidly to over US$700/tonne in June 2024, surpassing Zambia’s, and continued to rise to almost $900/tonne at the end of the year, far above other countries in the region. The reason couldn’t be reduced production from poor rainfall, because production still exceeded local demand. This happened even as the Malawi government put export restrictions on soybeans (but not soymeal). The price surge raises competition concerns in Malawi, where trading and processing is highly concentrated. In theory, highly concentrated markets are characterised by high prices, due to a lack of price competition.

By comparison, Zambia’s prices moderated because of imports. In addition, the low soybean prices offered to farmers in 2023 also meant that processors had crushed surplus soybeans, thereby building up soymeal stock. This reduced the demand for soybeans, as did power cuts in Zambia, which limited crushers’ operations.

Urgent next steps

Soybean developments over 2024 show the need to consider how competition issues within and across borders can undermine the resilience of regional food markets and hinder the ability of small producers to compete. Zambia is currently conducting a commercial poultry market inquiry. But a regional approach in monitoring markets and tackling anti-competitive conduct is necessary to support poultry production.

About the Authors:

Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, Economist and Researcher at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg and Namhla Landani, Economist at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities

28 Mar

Week Ahead: EURUSD braces for Trump tariffs, EU inflation, US jobs report

By ForexTime

EURUSD up over 4% so far in March 2025; set for biggest monthly gain since Nov. 2022
Apr 1: Eurozone’s March CPI could offer mixed readings for EURUSD
Apr 2: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs could hurt US economy and USD
Apr 4: US NFP report, Chair Powell’s speech may offer clues on next Fed rate cut
Bloomberg FX model: 73.7% chance EURUSD trades between 1.0650 – 1.0934 next week

The world’s most-traded FX pair is set for its biggest monthly gain in over 2 years!

At the time of writing, EURUSD is up about 4.08% so far in March 2025.

If it holds around these levels, that would the EURUSD’s biggest 1-month gain since the 5.3% advance in November 2022.

Why did EURUSD rise in March 2025?

Two main reasons:

1) Weaker USD: Markets are worried that President Trump’s tariffs would actually hurt US economic growth.

Against such a dimmer outlook, the US dollar has weakened against almost all of its G10 peers (except against the Japanese Yen) in March 2025.

2) Historic change to Germany government spending: Earlier this month, Europe’s largest economy amended its constitution to get rid of its so-called “debt brake”.

This “historic” decision is set to unleash hundreds of billions of euros on defense and infrastructure spending.

With more government spending for Europe’s largest economy, that has sweetened the Eurozone’s economic outlook, hence the strengthening euro.

NOTE: The euro has also strengthened against almost all its G10 peers (except the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krone) so far in March 2025.

EUR strengthened against most G10 peers in March 2025

With all that in mind …

Can EURUSD extend its month-to-date (March 2025) gains into Q2 2025?

This question will be especially pertinent as we enter a week filled with these major events on the global economic calendar:

Sunday, March 30

Europe, UK goes into Daylight Savings Time

Monday, March 31

JPY: Japan February industrial production, retail sales
AU200 index: March Melbourne institute inflation
CNH: China March PMIs
THB: Thailand February external trade
GER40 index: Germany March CPI; February retail sales

Tuesday, April 1

JP225 index: Japan February jobless rate; 1Q Tankan index
AUD: RBA rate decision; February retail sales
CN50 index: China March manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone March CPI; February unemployment
US30 index: US March ISM manufacturing

Wednesday, April 2

USDInd: Trump’s “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs incoming?

Thursday, April 3

AUD: Australia February trade balance
CN50 index: China March services PMI
EU50 index: Eurozone February PPI; ECB meeting minutes
RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; ISM services index; speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
US500 index: 25% US tariffs on auto imports kick in

Friday, April 4

SG20 index: Singapore February retail sales
GER40 index: Germany March construction PMI; February factory orders
CAD: Canada March unemployment rate
US500 index: US March nonfarm payrolls
USDInd: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

From the list above, we highlight 4 specific events that could trigger massive reactions in the world’s most-traded FX pair:

Tuesday, April 1^st: Eurozone March consumer price index (CPI)

Here’s what economists predict for this important set of inflation data:

Headline CPI year-on-year (March 2025 vs. March 2024): 2.3%
If so, this would match February’s 2.3% year-on-year figure.
Headline CPI month-on-month (March 2025 vs. February 2025): 0.6%
If so, this would be notably higher than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) year-on-year: 2.5%
If so, this would be a slight easing from February’s 2.6% core year-on-year figure.

Lower-than-expected CPI prints which encourages more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could weaken EURUSD.

Wednesday, April 2^nd: “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs?

April 2^nd is the deadline for when US President Donald Trump intends to roll out “reciprocal” tariffs, which suggests an “eye-for-an-eye” approach.

This essentially points to the raising of US tariffs to fix trade imbalances against its major trading partners, including the Eurozone.

Markets initially believed that these “reciprocal tariffs” would actually slow down US economic growth, hence the US dollar’s steep drop in early March.

More recently, markets hope that Trump’s next tariff salvo may not be as damaging as initially feared. Hence, the euro has weakened against the US dollar in 7 out of the past 8 daily trading sessions.

There is still much uncertainty about what this major tariff announcement will look like, with markets largely adopting a “wait and see mode”.

Ultimately, if the market’s worst-case-scenario is confirmed, that could further dent the US dollar while adding to EURUSD’s gains from March 2025.

Friday, April 4^th: US March nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Here’s what economists predict for this closely-watched jobs report:

Headline NFP figure: 135,000 (new jobs added to US labour market)

If so, this would be lower than February’s 151,000 headline NFP figure.

Unemployment rate: 4.1%

If so, this would match February’s unemployment rate

Average hourly earnings month-on-month (March 2025 vs. Feb 2025): 0.3%

If so, this would match February’s figure.

Stronger-than-expected US jobs data, which points to resilience in the world’s largest economy, should bolster the US dollar and drag EURUSD lower.

Friday, April 4^th: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Just 3 hours after the US jobs report’s release, the Chair of the Federal Reserve – the US central bak – is set to share his economic outlook.

Markets will be eager to find out his take not just on the latest NFP numbers, but also what President Trump’s tariff announcements earlier in the week would mean for the resilience of the US economy.

A weakening US jobs market that faces more damage from tariffs could prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner than expected – a weaker USD scenario.

At the time of writing, markets are forecasting a:

54% chance (almost evenly split) that the Fed will cut its benchmark rates by another 75-basis points (3 more rate cuts, 25-bps per FOMC meeting) by end-2025.
70% chance that the next Fed rate cut will happen at the June FOMC meeting.

Looking at the charts …

At the time of writing, EURUSD is trading just below the big, round 1.08000 number, around its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Note also that EURUSD earlier this week found crucial support at its 200-day SMA.

EURUSD in "wait and see" mode around 1.080 ahead of more US tariffs

Bloomberg’s FX model currently predicts a 74% chance that EURUSD will trade between 1.0650 – 1.0934 over the coming week.

Potential Scenarios:

EURUSD could weaken below its 200-day SMA and towards 1.0650 if we see:
– weaker-than-expected Eurozone CPI which paves way for ECB rate cuts
– more US trade tariffs on EU, but not as damaging on the US economy
– stronger-than-expected US jobs report and a hawkish Chair Powell that pushes back on the next Fed rate cut

EURUSD could revisit its latest cycle high around 1.094 or above if we see:
– stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI which delays ECB rate cuts
– reciprocal US trade tariffs that confirm market’s worst-case fears by hurting the US economy and dollar
– weaker-than-expected US jobs report and a dovish Chair Powell that opens the door for a sooner-than-June Fed rate cut

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

28 Mar

Technical Indicators Signal Major Breakout Potential Despite Recent Price Dip

Source: Clive Maund (3/27/25)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund explains why he thinks it now may be the time to buy or add positions of Armory Mining Corp.’s (ARMY:CSE; RMRYF:OTC; J2S:FRA).

Although the price of Armory Mining Corp.’s (ARMY:CSE; RMRYF:OTC; J2S:FRA) stock has drifted off since we first looked at it early in February, its technical condition has strengthened greatly as we will see when we come to review its latest charts which means that it is more of a buy now.

Armory Mining Corp. changed its name from Spey Resources in November and is a junior company focused on exploring for critical minerals that are vital to the future of security and military applications, such as antimony, gold, silver, lithium, and various other minerals that will be in increasing demand in the future with the prospect of much higher prices for most of them. So it’s not surprising that the company’s stock has been under accumulation for many months, and especially in recent weeks, and is completing a large base pattern from which it is set to break out into a major bull market soon.

Before we look at the stock charts, which make a clear and robust case for buying Armory Mining, we will first overview the fundamentals of the company using slides lifted from the investor deck.

Armory Minerals has four projects situated in proven mining districts that have past-producing mines where the infrastructure is good. The approximate locations of these projects are shown on the following slide. Three of them are in Canada, with the remaining one in Argentina. The Ammo Property in Nova Scotia and the Riley Creek property in British Columbia are chiefly antimony and gold projects, while the Kaslo Silver property in British Columbia is, as its name implies, primarily silver, and Candela II in Argentina is a lithium deposit. . .

With the growing imposition of tariffs and trade barriers, the importance of producing antimony in North America is becoming increasingly clear since China is the dominant source of this semi-metal, and its price looks set to continue higher.

The following pages from the investor deck overview each of the projects in turn.

Since we last looked at Armory in February, there has been news that the company is to retain control of this lithium project because American Salars Lithium Inc. (USLI:CSE; USLIF:OTC; Z3P:FWB; A3E2NY:WKN) has relinquished its option to develop it.

This slide details the importance of different critical minerals to the major world trading blocs.

The company highlights are on the below slide.

On this last slide, we see that the company has a reasonable 38.2 million shares in issue.

Now, we will review the latest charts for Armory Mining.

The situation is paradoxical — although we have taken quite a hit with this since it was recommended early in February, the charts look far more bullish than they did even then for reasons that we will now examine.

Starting with the 3-year chart we see again that Armory Mining is late in a basing process following the severe bear market from September – October of 2022 through early – mid 2024. The difference between now and when we first looked at it in February is that there has been a massive buildup in upside volume even though the price has retreated somewhat that has driven both volume indicators shown strongly higher. This is very bullish and may even be described as creating a “pressure cooker” effect.

On the 18-month chart, we can see much more clearly what has been going on in the recent past. Back in February, we had thought, on the basis of the strong volume pattern and volume indicators, that the Handle part of the pattern was about to complete and that the price should advance, but instead, it broke lower and dropped back some, requiring us to adjust the boundaries of the Pan & Handle pattern.

However, although the price has lost ground, the technical picture has strengthened dramatically. This is because volume became extremely heavy with most of this volume being upside volume, as evidenced by the volume towers and also by both the volume indicators shown rising steeply. A big reason why this is so bullish is because this persistent heavy volume means that there has been a lot of stock rotation with the new buyers “locking up” a lot of stock, because they won’t be inclined to sell until they have turned a significant profit — and we can presume that they bought for a reason. What this means is that any significant influx of demand will find a market short of stock, so if they want to buy they will have to bid the price up. We will now look at the recent dip in more detail on a 6-month chart.

On the 6-month chart, we can easily see the persistent heavy upside volume as the price has drifted somewhat lower in the orderly downtrend shown and how it has driven volume indicators higher — and they have remained buoyant as the price has drifted even lower.

This downtrend has brought the price back to a zone of significant support, and we can see that the stock is already nudging a breakout from this downtrend, which looks likely to occur soon. for the reasons set out above, a breakout from this downtrend could quickly lead to a steep ascent from here.

Holders of Armory Mining should therefore stay long and this is considered to be an excellent point to buy or add to positions. The first target for an advance is the resistance at the top of the Handle approaching and at CA$0.27. The second target is another band of resistance in the CA$0.60 area with higher targets possible.

Armory Mining Corp.’s website.

Armory Mining Corp.’s (ARMY:CSE; RMRYF:OTC; J2S:FRA) closed for trading at CA$0.09, US$0.0589 on March 26, 2025.

Important Disclosures:

American Salars Lithium has a consulting relationship with Street Smart an affiliate of Streetwise Reports. Street Smart Clients pay a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of American Salars Lithium.
Clive Maund: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Metals Opinions

26 Mar

CN50 index sensitive to flood of earnings this week

By ForexTime

34% of CN50 members reporting earnings this week.
Earnings by BYD and China Merchants Bank helped support CN50 above 21-day SMA.
24% of CN50 members left to report earnings by the weekend.
Banking stocks carry the most weightage (23.8%) on the CN50 index.
CN50 bulls eager for more signs of economic resilience and support.

FXTM’s CN50 index is bracing for even more earnings announcements this week.

NOTE: FXTM’s CN50 index tracks the underlying FTSE China A50 index, which measures the overall performance of the 50 biggest A Share Chinese companies.

For the entire week, about a third (34%) of the 50 members on this stock index are set to unveil their respective financial results.

Earlier this week, BYD and China Merchants Bank – two of the 5-biggest CN50 members – have already made their respective announcements, which helped keep CN50 supported above its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

However, initial gains were thwarted around the 13,470 region – a notable resistance back in February 2025 as well, before returning to test support around the 21-day SMA once more.

Also, the 13,470 region served as the mid-range for the CN50’s sideways pattern in most of Q4 2024.

But there’s more!

Some 24% of the CN50’s members are due to release their earnings in the days ahead.

This includes many major banks, such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Industrial Bank, and the Agricultural Bank of China.
Banking stocks have the most members (12) represented on the CN50 index of any other industry group, collectively account for nearly 24% of this index.

In short, these earnings could hold great influence over the CN50’s near-term performance.

And the CN50 could use all the help it can get.

The CN50 has lagged behind FXTM’s other Chinese stock indexes, namely the CHINAH and HK50, in terms of their respective performances so far in 2025:

CN50: down 0.8% year-to-date
HK50: up 17.1% year-to-date
CHINAH: up 18.8% year-to-date

Even though it’s pretty much flat on a year-to-date basis, the CN50 is still holding up well relative to its US counterparts:

US500: down 1.8% year-to-date
NAS100: down 3.4% year-to-date
US400: down 3.6% year-to-date
RUS2000: down 6% year-to-date

Earnings boost enough for CN50 bulls?

Granted, while an earnings boost will be roundly welcomed by CN50 bulls (those hoping prices will go higher), it’s unlikely to rapidly narrow the year-to-date gap with the likes of CHINAH and HK50.

After all, the latter two indices have soared on the AI-mania that’s now swaying Chinese markets.

Ultimately, given how economically-sensitive CN50’s constituents are, this index may need further evidence of incoming support to shore up China’s recovery.

Hence, beyond the corporate earnings announcements, traders and investors are also set to draw clues about the overall health of China’s economy via these upcoming major data releases:

Thursday, March 27^th: February industrial profits
Monday, March 31^st: March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs)

Should concerns surrounding global economic growth become less pronounced, that could carve out more upside for the CN50 index, and vice versa.

Potential Scenarios:

BULLISH: Better-than-expected earnings, along with easing concerns over the global economic outlook, should raise the odds of CN50 reclaiming the 13,800 handle.
BEARISH: Disappointing CN50 member earnings this week, along with rising concerns about the global economic outlook, could drag this stock index below its 21-day SMA to potentially test its 50-day SMA as an immediate downside target.
The psychologically-important 13k level then lies further south to potentially shore up support.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

24 Mar

Duterte’s rendition, PH political turmoil and the ICC’s dilemma

By Dan Steinbock

On Thursday, the Philippines saw hours of political drama that left masses of Filipinos angry and ICC observers perplexed. The Duterte rendition could have long-lasting, adverse consequences in both the Philippines and the ICC.

In the Senate’s much-anticipated Duterte detention hearing on Thursday, Senator Imee Marcos, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, interviewed the key cabinet members of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., her brother. One by one, Marcos contrasted their responses with prior interviews, ICC and Interpol documents, highlighting deep gaps between official statements and actual realities.

In a telling moment, Secretary of Interior Jonvic Remulla said the government did not “plot” Duterte’s arrest prior to March 11. Then, Senator Marcos showed Remulla’s prior TV interview in which the minister acknowledged that he, the president, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. and Security Adviser Eduardo Año set the arrest of Duterte in motion.

Troubling inconsistencies

Secretary Año said the claims that he, along with the president, Justice Secretary Crispin Remulla, and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, had conspired to plan Duterte’s arrest were untrue. He was unaware of any coordination with the ICC and learned of the Interpol notice on March 11. Yet, Marcos cited Interpol’s communication stating the arrest was made “with prior consultation with the Philippine government.”

Año also said that any meeting regarding this matter occurred only after they were made aware of Interpol’s “red notice” for the former president’s arrest. Yet, the country’s transnational crime (PCTC) director Anthony Alcantara admitted the Interpol did not issue a red notice against Duterte, only a diffusion notice; that is, not a notice needed to undertake a provisional arrest, but a lower-level alert for information sharing.

Justice Secretary Remulla contradicted his 2024 statement under oath before another Senate hearing that any ICC arrest order or Interpol notice should be brought before local courts. Instead, Duterte was pushed forcefully into, oddly, a private plane by Police Maj. Gen. Nicolas Torre III, after Duterte’s lawyer was handcuffed.

Vice President Sara Duterte said her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, was taken into custody “without a valid warrant issued by a Philippine court, without due process.” The ICC is being used for political persecution “to demolish the opposition” prior to the 2025 and 2028 elections.

As legal scholar Alexis F. Medina concluded in his prior opinion and during the hearing, the arrest of the former president raises “several critical constitutional concerns – due process, warrantless arrests, and liberty of abode, among others.”

During the weekend, Sen. Imee Marcos said that she hasn’t had a conversation with her brother, President Marcos Jr., in a long time.

The ICC’s original compromise

In the 1990s, the special tribunals established by the UN Security Council to prosecute crimes in the Balkans and Rwanda fostered efforts to create a permanent court. The International Criminal Court (ICC) was the international community’s response to renewed atrocities and ethnic conflict. But it was constrained at birth.

In the 1998 Rome Conference, the scope of the court’s jurisdiction was one of the most intensely debated topics. Many NGOs and rights organizations advocated universal jurisdiction. By contrast, the United States and some of its allies advocated jurisdiction based on UN Security Council authorization.

In the subsequent compromise between the idealists and the realists, the ICC would have jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed on the territory of a member state, by the national of a member state, or in other situations when the Security Council has authorized court action.

This compromise allows the court to investigate and prosecute the nationals of a non-member state; as in the case of Philippines.

Allegations of partiality: Kenya, Uhuru and ICC

Cognizant of its limitations, the ICC began its operations cautiously in 2003. It moved ahead only when the country in question had requested court intervention (Congo DR, Central African Republic, Uganda) or when the UN Security Council had authorized the role of the court.

Despite increasing international divides in the early 2010s, the ICC’s pattern changed when its prosecutor launched its first investigation without explicit state support, against President Uhuru Kenyatta (who eventually beat the case). In the messy case involving lucrative external interests, the line between legitimate prosecution and political persecution grew thin.

Many African nations regard the court, which has largely focused only on the poor, resource-rich countries of Africa, as a “toy of declining imperial powers.”

Yet, the ICC didn’t take a step back. Its ambitious prosecutors ignored caution engaging in investigations, which brought the court into direct contests with several non-member states, including Russia, Libya, Myanmar, U.S. in Afghanistan, and more recently, Israel in Gaza. The results were predictable.

In two decades, the prosecutor has secured convictions in only 4 cases, typically in cases against citizens of member countries. Cases against non-member state nationals have yielded almost nothing.

Rising tensions

Oddly, the role of Martin Romualdez, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, in the ongoing dynastic debacles has been largely excluded in international media, even though in domestic debate it is seen as vital to the turmoil.

Moreover, the Marcos/Duterte debacle is characterized as a battle of “two political dynasties.” Yet, the Dutertes have neither the economic resources nor the links of President Marcos Jr with the financial elites. After his victory, the president convened some of the country’s “boldest business minds” to “strengthen synergies” between the private and public sectors. To Marcos champions, the “billionaire club’s” role is only advisory. To Duterte supporters, it is reminiscent of Marcos Sr’s cronies.

Furthermore, the government’s mounting debacles – murky budget items and eroding economy, outsourcing of military sovereignty to rotational US bases, perceived illicit measures in Duterte’s expulsion – have stirred growing resentment among the populace.

The government insists it is only observing international pressures. Yet, critics argue that some cabinet members have violated the Philippine constitution and its Cooperation Agreement with the ICC. The ICC observers fear its procedures may have been undermined.

Given the present course, the 2010s Uhuru/ICC pattern – domestic political rivalry offshored to the ICC, uncertainty in domestic economy, detrimental geopolitics and weaker economic prospects – may now be evolving in the Philippines.

About the Author:

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net

The original page-one op-ed was published by The Manila Times on March 24, 2025

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

18 Mar

Museums have tons of data, and AI could make it more accessible − but standardizing and organizing it across fields won’t be easy

By Bradley Wade Bishop, University of Tennessee

Ice cores in freezers, dinosaurs on display, fish in jars, birds in boxes, human remains and ancient artifacts from long gone civilizations that few people ever see – museum collections are filled with all this and more.

These collections are treasure troves that recount the planet’s natural and human history, and they help scientists in a variety of different fields such as geology, paleontology, anthropology and more. What you see on a trip to a museum is only a sliver of the wonders held in their collection.

Museums generally want to make the contents of their collections available for teachers and researchers, either physically or digitally. However, each collection’s staff has its own way of organizing data, so navigating these collections can prove challenging.

Creating, organizing and distributing the digital copies of museum samples or the information about physical items in a collection requires incredible amounts of data. And this data can feed into machine learning models or other artificial intelligence to answer big questions.

Currently, even within a single research domain, finding the right data requires navigating different repositories. AI can help organize large amounts of data from different collections and pull out information to answer specific questions.

But using AI isn’t a perfect solution. A set of shared practices and systems for data management between museums could improve the data curation and sharing necessary for AI to do its job. These practices could help both humans and machines make new discoveries from these valuable collections.

As an information scientist who studies scientists’ approaches to and opinions on research data management, I’ve seen how the world’s physical collection infrastructure is a patchwork quilt of objects and their associated metadata.

AI tools can do amazing things, such as make 3D models of digitized versions of the items in museum collections, but only if there’s enough well-organized data about that item available. To see how AI can help museum collections, my team of researchers started by conducting focus groups with the people who managed museum collections. We asked what they are doing to get their collections used by both humans and AI.

Collection managers

When an item comes into a museum collection, the collection managers are the people who describe that item’s features and generate data about it. That data, called metadata, allows others to use it and might include things like the collector’s name, geographic location, the time it was collected, and in the case of geological samples, the epoch it’s from. For samples from an animal or plant, it might include its taxonomy, which is the set of Latin names that classify it.

All together, that information adds up to a mind-boggling amount of data.

But combining data across domains with different standards is really tricky. Fortunately, collection managers have been working to standardize their processes across disciplines and for many types of samples. Grants have helped science communities build tools for standardization.

In biological collections, the tool Specify allows managers to quickly classify specimens with drop-down menus prepopulated with standards for taxonomy and other parameters to consistently describe the incoming specimens.

A common metadata standard in biology is Darwin Core. Similar well-established metadata and tools exist across all the sciences to make the workflow of taking real items and putting them into a machine as easy as possible.

Special tools like these and metadata help collection managers make data from their objects reusable for research and educational purposes.

Many of the items in museum collections don’t have a lot of information describing their origins. AI tools can help fill in gaps.

All the small things

My team and I conducted 10 focus groups, with a total of 32 participants from several physical sample communities. These included collection managers across disciplines, including anthropology, archaeology, botany, geology, ichthyology, entomology, herpetology and paleontology.

Each participant answered questions about how they accessed, organized, stored and used data from their collections in an effort to make their materials ready for AI to use. While human subjects need to provide consent to be studied, most species do not. So, an AI can collect and analyze the data from nonhuman physical collections without privacy or consent concerns.

We found that collection managers from different fields and institutions have lots of different practices when it comes to getting their physical collections ready for AI. Our results suggest that standardizing the types of metadata managers record and the ways they store it across collections could make the items in these samples more accessible and usable.

Additional research projects like our study can help collection managers build up the infrastructure they’ll need to make their data machine-ready. Human expertise can help inform AI tools that make new discoveries based on the old treasures in museum collections.

About the Author:

Bradley Wade Bishop, Professor of Information Sciences, University of Tennessee

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

17 Mar

Golden Milestone

Source: Michael Ballanger (3/17/25)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. takes a look at gold, silver, and copper amid political shifts in the U.S. and shares two of his favorite junior developers.

This is a week that shall go down in the annals of history, the week that a “barbarous relic” under the guise of a “pet rock” took its rightful seat on the throne of superior performance, bludgeoning the wailing anchors of CNBC into actually recognizing the ascendancy of gold and its little brother, silver. As the equity markets in the United States went into virtual freefall, the same bubbleheaded, narrative-spewing cast of characters were out in force, beseeching their global viewers to not panic and instead hold on because the Fed “has your backs.”

As gold soared Thursday evening and the wee hours of Friday morning above the magical $3k level, the CNBC Fear-Greed index slumped to a reading of 16, placing it squarely into <EXTREME FEAR>, a zone from which many market bottoms were born. The lowest reading for this index was in April 2020 during the COVID Crash, when it hit a reading of 1. At that point, there was literally nobody left to sell stocks as the world was convinced that the bubonic plague was descending upon us and that humanity, as we then knew it, was doomed.

That marked the bottom of the market in 2020, after which the combination of fiscal stimulus (“cheques to households”) and zero interest rates led to record liquidity levels for the Wall Street banks and a new S&P 500 high a mere five months later. I told subscribers mid-week that now was not the time to sell their holdings and load up on put options and/or volatility. It is also not the time to back the truck into the stock market loading dock and forklift copious amounts of the “MAG Seven” into the bed. March 2025 is not March 2020 because the U.S. government no longer enjoys the privilege of being able to print money. They cannot “save” the stock market by arbitrarily slashing interest rates to zero and engaging in the fiscal helicopter drop that Ben Bernanke boasted of in 2009.

By contrast, now is the time to carefully recalibrate one’s investment objectives and/or risk tolerance profile and above all else, get liquid. With an ample amount of cash, one can survive meltdowns but with leverage and/or no cash, one is completely indebted to and victim of the vagaries of the stock market. Now, if you own gold stocks and/or physical gold or silver, you are liquid; if you do not own them, you are enslaved. I want all subscribers to be free from worry so sell enough of your non-precious metals holdings to allow uninterrupted sleep to dominate the wee hours. Stocks closed the week with a 117-point S&P rally. Into any follow-through next week, increase your cash positions.

I expect that gold will take more than a one-off overnight spike in order to surpass the $3k level as a sustained move.

I expect that profit-taking will have it in a range of $2,975-$3,025 for several more days and perhaps weeks before it can achieve escape velocity above the magic number.

Politics, Economics, and Stocks

I wish I could have been embraced more gently as a youngster to my introduction to the field of politics, but ever since November 22, 1963, and the days and weeks thereafter, I have been totally jaundiced by the mere mention of the word “politics.” When the assassin’s bullet ended the life of a truly popular and indeed charismatic president in the form of John F. Kennedy in Dallas that day, it ended for me and an entire generation of baby boomer idealism that carried an engrained belief that the United States of America was indeed the “Promised Land.”

After Kennedy came LBJ and Viet Nam, Nixon and Watergate, Jimmy Carter and the Stagflation ’70s, and then the “Reagan Miracle” that rhymes beautifully with “Trump 2.0.” In 1981, Reagan had David Stockman; in 2025, Trump has Scott Bessent. In 1981, economic advisor to the President, David Stockman embraced the media with “supply-side economics”; in 2025, Elon Musk embraces the media with the “Department of Government Efficiency” (“DOGE“).

In 1981-1982, there was “The Laffer Curve,” a theoretical model in economics that suggests there’s an optimal tax rate that maximizes government revenue, with revenue falling at both very high and very low tax rates. Yet despite all of the brainpower assisting Reagan, after two years of soaring interest rates and falling polling numbers, the Reagan Team bailed on their anti-inflation mission and opened up the fiscal and monetary floodgates in order to salvage some respectability in the mid-term elections.

The bear market ended in 1982 a mere ten weeks before the 1982 mid-term elections with a rapid and aggressive wave of monetary easing as then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker slashed the Fed Funds rate sending the S&P 500 up 40% from the August lows to early November. Needless to say, the Republicans carried the mid-terms.

With the pullback in the DJIA, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ 100 in the past three weeks, it closely resembles the end of the Reagan “honeymoon period,” which stretched from election day 1980 until May of 1982. When the bloom came of the rose in May of 1982, it triggered a nasty bear market that lasted for fifteen long months, and while it wasn’t nearly as long or as arduous as the 1973-1974 bear, the interest rate crunch bankrupted many individuals and corporations that were carrying inordinate amounts of debt.

Here in 2025, it is the government of the U.S.A. and certain commercial real estate borrowers that are carrying inordinate amounts of debt while the average household and majority of corporate balance sheets are in relatively good shape. However, as happened in 1981-1982, the Reagan-esque “new morning in America” that Trump 2.0 promised in the form of “Make America Great Again” is threatening to be preceded by “The Nightmare on Wall Street” as the fiscal juice that kept the economy chugging along through most of 2024 has now ended leaving Scott Bessent with a very ugly balance sheet and some US$8 trillion of refinancing to pull off in an environment where the usual foreign buyers of U.S. Treasuries are being hit or threatened with tariffs.

Good luck with that, Scott. . .

I stick to my call that the current market outlook is a repeat of May 1982 and based upon the 117-point SPX reflex rally on Friday, this next 2-3 weeks could be the same bull trap that snared so much prey back in May 1982 before the ravenous bear started to feast in earnest. From a tactical viewpoint, last week I covered all shorts with put positions being sold as the SPY April $600 puts went from $8.00 to $38 in three short weeks.

As you have all heard many times before, “In a bull market, you are either flat or long or very long, but you are not short.” If SPX 6,147 was THE top, then the correct move is to wait for the rally to run out of gas and then short it. However, thus far, the SPX:US is only in correction mode, which does not rule out new all-time highs. Furthermore, because this decline has been triggered by the White House policy initiatives, any moderation in the bearish rhetoric could send stocks screaming back to their February highs in very short order. For now, stay pat, stay liquid, and focus on this emerging bull market in the metals.

Metals

As much as CNBC would like to ignore the chart posted on page one showing the superior performance of gold since the Turn of the Century, if my portfolio is any indication, owning the metals has been the best trade to begin a year since 2001.

Record highs on gold with copper close behind and silver threatening a break-out. Even the juniors are now starting to capture a little of the love that has been reserved for technology and “meme” stocks.

Surprisingly, when you surf around on “X” (Twitter) or YouTube, you find interview after interview and story after story on gold and silver, but outside of Robert Friedland, there is literally nothing on copper.

Then you look up at the 2025 year-to-date performance figure, and out in front leading the charge is good ol’ Dr. Copper, up 21.59% YTD versus 17.75% for silver, 13.63% for gold, and minus 4.13% for the S&P 500.

My two largest positions just happen to be in two junior developers (Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE; GGLDF:OTCQB) and Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB)) and with one developing (and expanding) a 2.317 million-ounce gold deposit in Nevada while the other has multiple copper projects in Chile, the world’s largest producer of the red metal. I am scanning the landscape for a new silver name, and I think I have found one that is relatively unknown and under-owned, which means it has upside potential.

However, until silver can scale that mountain of resistance between here and US$35.07, I am sidelined silver but happily long the copper and gold combo that have served us so well in 2025.

Remember that old adage from the School of Successful Stock Promotion: “Hang on to your cat, your coat, and your girlfriend; there ain’t no fever like gold fever!”

Copper may wish to dissent. . .

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Getchell Gold Corp. and Fitzroy Minerals Inc.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Metals Opinions

17 Mar

Silver Tarnished No More

Source: John Newell

John Newell of John Newell & Associates answers the question: is silver poised for a dramatic move higher?

A Case for Silver’s Rise

Silver has long been a precious metal that plays a dual role: a store of value and an industrial commodity. With recent economic trends and historical patterns, the case for a significant price increase in silver is becoming more compelling.

Below, we outline key fundamental reasons why silver could be on the verge of a dramatic move higher, supported by two charts, one short-term and one long-term, illustrating its potential trajectory.

Technical: Silver Hits $35, Is $50 Next? And a March towards $70

The shorter-term chart shows that silver has recently achieved its $35 target and is building momentum toward higher levels.

Historically, when silver entered strong uptrends, it experienced parabolic moves. Looking at the past two major silver bull runs, if the metal were to repeat even an average of these moves (7x from its lows), silver could trade at $70 per ounce.

The long-term 50-year chart further strengthens this thesis. In previous major price surges, most notably in the late 1970s and 2010-2011, silver saw exponential growth over relatively short periods.

Given the similarities in today’s economic conditions to those times, there is reason to believe silver could be gearing up for another major bull cycle.

Fundamental Reasons for Silver’s Rise

Hedge Against Inflation

Silver, like gold, is a well-known hedge against inflation. With rising inflation concerns and central banks continuing to lose monetary policies, silver provides a means to preserve purchasing power. Historically, when inflation accelerates, precious metals tend to perform well.

Growing Industrial Demand

Unlike gold, silver is an essential industrial metal with applications in:

Electronics: Silver is used in high-performance electronic devices due to its superior conductivity.

Solar Panels: The renewable energy push is expected to drive increased demand for silver in solar technology.

Medical Uses: Silver’s antibacterial properties make it vital in the medical industry. As global industries expand and modernize, silver’s demand is expected to rise, creating upward pressure on prices.

Affordability and Accessibility

Compared to gold, silver remains much more affordable. This makes it an attractive investment for a wider range of investors, particularly in emerging markets where gold prices may be out of reach for many. If gold continues to rise, silver could see increased inflows as an alternative store of value.

Portfolio Diversification

Silver provides diversification benefits as it often moves independently from traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds. In uncertain times, investors flock to safe-haven assets like silver, reducing overall portfolio risk.

Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty

Silver has historically performed well during periods of economic instability. If global markets experience turmoil—whether from geopolitical events, recession fears, or monetary instability, silver could benefit as a safe-haven asset.

Ways to Participate in Silver’s Potential Upside

While buying physical silver in the form of coins or bars is a traditional method of investing, there are other ways to gain exposure to silver’s expected price appreciation. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer a convenient alternative:

SLV (iShares Silver Trust): The largest silver ETF, holding physical silver. It provides a direct investment in silver without needing to store it.

Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV): Another option for direct silver exposure, backed by physical silver held in secure vaults.

SIL (Global X Silver Miners ETF): Holds shares in approximately 33 silver mining companies, allowing investors to gain exposure to the industry.

SILJ (Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF): Tracks small-cap companies primarily engaged in silver mining, exploration, and development, providing leveraged exposure to silver price movements.

Additionally, several silver mining companies are currently trading at low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. As the silver price rises, these companies could experience a leveraged effect, potentially amplifying returns for investors.

A Modern ‘Hunt Brothers’ Scenario?

In the late 1970s, the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market, causing prices to skyrocket. While modern regulations prevent such extreme market manipulation, a global shift in investor sentiment could replicate similar price movements.

Imagine a scenario where large populations, such as those in BRICS nations, turn to silver as an alternative to gold. If gold becomes prohibitively expensive for average investors, silver could become their precious metal of choice.

Potential Outcomes of a Global Silver Rush:

Surging Prices: Increased demand from millions of investors could push silver prices significantly higher.

Increased Market Volatility: Rapid price increases may lead to volatile market conditions.

Silver Mining Stocks Boom: Companies producing silver could see substantial gains.

Industrial Costs Rise: Industries reliant on silver (e.g., solar panels and electronics) could face higher production costs.

Regulatory Intervention: Governments and financial institutions may take action to stabilize the market.

Conclusion: Silver’s Future Looks Bright

Given silver’s role as an inflation hedge, its growing industrial demand, and its affordability compared to gold, there are strong fundamental reasons for its price to rise significantly.

Technically, the metal has reached its $35 target and appears to be building momentum toward higher levels. If history is any guide, a move toward $50, and even $70, is well within the realm of possibility.

For investors looking to position themselves in an asset with significant upside potential, silver presents a compelling opportunity in today’s economic landscape.

The link to a previous article on the fundamentals of silver can be found here.

Important Disclosures:

Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Metals Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Opinions

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

RoundUp: Speculators continued to add to Japanese & European currencies while US Dollar & Commodity currencies see lower bets

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Live Cattle

Steel

Silver

Brazil Real

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

Cotton

Soybean Meal

Wheat

New Zealand Dollar

Market outcomes

Cheapest source of proteins

Zambia’s production plummet

Soybean prices in Malawi remain high but Zambia’s prices stabilise

Urgent next steps

The world’s most-traded FX pair is set for its biggest monthly gain in over 2 years!

Why did EURUSD rise in March 2025?

With more government spending for Europe’s largest economy, that has sweetened the Eurozone’s economic outlook, hence the strengthening euro.

Can EURUSD extend its month-to-date (March 2025) gains into Q2 2025?

Tuesday, April 1st: Eurozone March consumer price index (CPI)

Lower-than-expected CPI prints which encourages more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could weaken EURUSD.

Wednesday, April 2nd: “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs?

This essentially points to the raising of US tariffs to fix trade imbalances against its major trading partners, including the Eurozone.

Ultimately, if the market’s worst-case-scenario is confirmed, that could further dent the US dollar while adding to EURUSD’s gains from March 2025.

Friday, April 4th: US March nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Stronger-than-expected US jobs data, which points to resilience in the world’s largest economy, should bolster the US dollar and drag EURUSD lower.

Friday, April 4th: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

A weakening US jobs market that faces more damage from tariffs could prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner than expected – a weaker USD scenario.

Looking at the charts …

Bloomberg’s FX model currently predicts a 74% chance that EURUSD will trade between 1.0650 – 1.0934 over the coming week.

Potential Scenarios:

FXTM’s CN50 index is bracing for even more earnings announcements this week.

NOTE: FXTM’s CN50 index tracks the underlying FTSE China A50 index, which measures the overall performance of the 50 biggest A Share Chinese companies.

Some 24% of the CN50’s members are due to release their earnings in the days ahead.

In short, these earnings could hold great influence over the CN50’s near-term performance.

And the CN50 could use all the help it can get.

Earnings boost enough for CN50 bulls?

Ultimately, given how economically-sensitive CN50’s constituents are, this index may need further evidence of incoming support to shore up China’s recovery.

Potential Scenarios:

Collection managers

All the small things

Politics, Economics, and Stocks

Metals

A Case for Silver’s Rise

Technical: Silver Hits $35, Is $50 Next? And a March towards $70

Fundamental Reasons for Silver’s Rise

Ways to Participate in Silver’s Potential Upside

A Modern ‘Hunt Brothers’ Scenario?

Tuesday, April 1^st: Eurozone March consumer price index (CPI)

Wednesday, April 2^nd: “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs?

Friday, April 4^th: US March nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Friday, April 4^th: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell