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Archive for Opinions

04 Apr

New modelling reveals full impact of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs – with the US hit hardest

By Niven Winchester, Auckland University of Technology 

We now have a clearer picture of Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and how they will affect other trading nations, including the United States itself.

The US administration claims these tariffs on imports will reduce the US trade deficit and address what it views as unfair and non-reciprocal trade practices. Trump said this would

forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed.

The “reciprocal” tariffs are designed to impose charges on other countries equivalent to half the costs they supposedly inflict on US exporters through tariffs, currency manipulation and non-tariff barriers levied on US goods.

Each nation received a tariff number that will apply to most goods. Notable sectors exempt include steel, aluminium and motor vehicles, which are already subject to new tariffs.

The minimum baseline tariff for each country is 10%. But many countries received higher numbers, including Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), China (34%), Indonesia (32%), Taiwan (32%) and Switzerland (31%).

The tariff number for China is in addition to an existing 20% tariff, so the total tariff applied to Chinese imports is 54%. Countries assigned 10% tariffs include Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

Canada and Mexico are exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, for now, but goods from those nations are subject to a 25% tariff under a separate executive order.

Although some countries do charge higher tariffs on US goods than the US imposes on their exports, and the “Liberation Day” tariffs are allegedly only half the full reciprocal rate, the calculations behind them are open to challenge.

For example, non-tariff measures are notoriously difficult to estimate and “subject to much uncertainty”, according to one recent study.

GDP impacts with retaliation

Other countries are now likely to respond with retaliatory tariffs on US imports. Canada (the largest destination for US exports), the EU and China have all said they will respond in kind.

To estimate the impacts of this tit-for-tat trade standoff, I use a global model of the production, trade and consumption of goods and services. Similar simulation tools – known as “computable general equilibrium models” – are widely used by governments, academics and consultancies to evaluate policy changes.

The first model simulates a scenario in which the US imposes reciprocal and other new tariffs, and other countries respond with equivalent tariffs on US goods. Estimated changes in GDP due to US reciprocal tariffs and retaliatory tariffs by other nations are shown in the table below.

The tariffs decrease US GDP by US$438.4 billion (1.45%). Divided among the nation’s 126 million households, GDP per household decreases by $3,487 per year. That is larger than the corresponding decreases in any other country. (All figures are in US dollars.)

Proportional GDP decreases are largest in Mexico (2.24%) and Canada (1.65%) as these nations ship more than 75% of their exports to the US. Mexican households are worse off by $1,192 per year and Canadian households by $2,467.

Other nations that experience relatively large decreases in GDP include Vietnam (0.99%) and Switzerland (0.32%).

Some nations gain from the trade war. Typically, these face relatively low US tariffs (and consequently also impose relatively low tariffs on US goods). New Zealand (0.29%) and Brazil (0.28%) experience the largest increases in GDP. New Zealand households are better off by $397 per year.

Aggregate GDP for the rest of the world (all nations except the US) decreases by $62 billion.

At the global level, GDP decreases by $500 billion (0.43%). This result confirms the well-known rule that trade wars shrink the global economy.

GDP impacts without retaliation

In the second scenario, the modelling depicts what happens if other nations do not react to the US tariffs. The changes in the GDP of selected countries are presented in the table below.

Countries that face relatively high US tariffs and ship a large proportion of their exports to the US experience the largest proportional decreases in GDP. These include Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, Switzerland, South Korea and China.

Countries that face relatively low new tariffs gain, with the UK experiencing the largest GDP increase.

The tariffs decrease US GDP by $149 billion (0.49%) because the tariffs increase production costs and consumer prices in the US.

Aggregate GDP for the rest of the world decreases by $155 billion, more than twice the corresponding decrease when there was retaliation. This indicates that the rest of the world can reduce losses by retaliating. At the same time, retaliation leads to a worse outcome for the US.

Previous tariff announcements by the Trump administration dropped sand into the cogs of international trade. The reciprocal tariffs throw a spanner into the works. Ultimately, the US may face the largest damages.The Conversation

About the Author:

Niven Winchester, Professor of Economics, Auckland University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
04 Apr

Week Ahead: S&P 500 to flirt with “bear market”?

By ForexTime 

  • US500 plummets to lowest since August; after Thursday’s biggest 1-day drop since pandemic
  • China announces tariff retaliation ahead of Friday’s NFP, Powell speech
  • Week Ahead: EU retaliation, US CPI, and earnings season could trigger more big moves!
  • Markets may not find comfort from Fed speakers next week
  • Technical rebound likely not sustained, barring stunning risk turnaround
  • Wall Street still forecasting new record high for S&P 500 over next 12 months
  • US500 would officially enter “bear market” if it falls to 4921.04.

     

US stock indices are extending their steep drop on Friday!

This comes after just posting their biggest one-day drop since the pandemic on Thursday, April 3rd, 2025 when the:

  • S&P 500 (tracked by FXTM’s US500) fell 4.84%.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average a.k.a. the Dow (tracked by FXTM’s US30) fell 3.98%.
  • S&P Midcap 400 index (tracked by FXTM’s US400) fell 6.66%.
  • Russell 2000 (tracked by FXTM’s RUS2000) fell 6.59%.

Thursday’s declines marked their largest one-day drop (in % terms) for each of these US stock indices since June 11th, 2020!

As for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (tracked by FXTM’s NAS100), it fell 5.41% yesterday – nearly matching its 5.54% plummet on September 13th, 2022.

READ MORE: Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs: How are markets reacting? (published Thursday, April 3rd, 2025)

 

 

Why are US stock markets falling on Friday (April 4th)?

In a tit-for-tat move, China has just responded to US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hike earlier this week (Wednesday, April 2nd).

Today, China announced 34% tariffs on all US imports starting April 10th!

Although the 34% number is lower than the 54% rate imposed by President Trump on Chinese shipments …

This has clearly escalated the trade war between the world’s two largest economies! 

This has left investors and traders worldwide outright fearful about the impact from an escalating global trade war, potentially sending the world into a recession!

And there could be even more volatility today for US stock indices.

Note that these steep declines at the time of writing are happening even before the release of the monthly US jobs report (NFP – nonfarm payrolls) as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech due later today (Friday, April 4th).

 

And that’s before we enter the week ahead which features these key scheduled economic events:

Monday, April 7

  • XAU: China foreign reserves
  • GER40 index: Germany February industrial production, external trade
  • EUR: EU trade minister to discuss reaction to Trump tariffs; Eurozone February retail sales
  • USDInd: Speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Tuesday, April 8

  • AUD: Australia April consumer confidence; March business confidence
  • TWN index: Taiwan March CPI, PPI
  • USDInd: Speech by San Franscisco Fed President Mary Daly

Wednesday, April 9

  • NZD: RBNZ rate decision
  • MXN: Mexico March CPI
  • USDInd: FOMC meeting minutes; speech by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
  • US “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect

Thursday, April 10

  • JP225 index: Japan March PPI
  • CN50 index: China March CPI, PPI
  • TWN index: Taiwan March trade balance
  • US500 index: US March CPI
  • RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; speeches by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
  • China’s retaliatory 34% tariffs against US go into effect

Friday, April 11

  • NZD: New Zealand March manufacturing PMI
  • GBP: UK February GDP, industrial production, trade balance
  • US400 index: US April consumer sentiment; March PPI
  • USDInd: Speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem
  • US30 index: US earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo etc.

 

 

3 things to look out for next week (April 7– 11):

 

1) Monday, April 7th: Tariff Retaliation

EU trade ministers are set to gather in Luxembourg for a closely-watched meeting.

The agenda?

To formulate the EU’s reaction to President Trump’s tariff salvo.

  • BEARISH: US stock indexes could fall further if the EU adopts an aggressive stance, emulating China, and retaliates in a tit-for-tat manner.
  • BULLISH: US stock indexes could rebound if the EU adopts a more conciliatory tone with the US administration, looking to swiftly strike a trade deal instead.

 

2) Thursday, April 10th: US March consumer price index (CPI)

Here’s what economists predict for the upcoming inflation report (CPI measures inflation)

  • CPI month-on-month (March 2025 vs. February 2025): 0.1%

If so, this would be lower than February’s 0.2% month-on-month number.

  • CPI year-on-year (March 2025 vs. March 2024): 2.6%

If so, this would be lower than February’s 2.8% year-on-year number.

  • Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy prices) month-on-month: 0.3%

If so, this would be higher than February’s 0.2% core month-on-month number.

  • Core CPI year-on-year: 3.0%

If so, this would be lower than February’s 3.1% core year-on-year number.

US stagflation fears are running rampant across US stock markets as we head into the weekend and is set to persist into the coming week.

NOTE: Stagflation is when inflation remains high, at a time when economic growth is sluggish.

  • BEARISH: US stock indexes could fall further if the CPI numbers come in higher-than-expected, lending credence to a stagflation scenario.
  • BULLISH: US stock indexes could rebound if the CPI numbers come in lower-than-expected, easing stagflation fears.

 

3) Friday, April 11th: US earnings season kicks off with Wall Street banks

Banking titans such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo are due to report their respective Q1 earnings a week from today.

However, markets are set to look past the backward-looking reported figures, and instead focus on the earnings outlook for these major US banks, in light of stagflation/recession risks.

  • BEARISH: US stock indexes could fall further if these banking giants sound the alarm about a looming stagflation/recession for the world’s largest economy.
  • BULLISH: US stock indexes could rebound if these banking giants remain confident about their respective earnings and the broader US economic growth narrative, despite President Trump’s tariff shocker.

 

But wait, there’s more.

Beyond the 3 above-listed events, note that the coming week will also be peppered with Fed Speak.

At least 7 different Fed officials are set to make scheduled speeches in the week ahead.

  • BEARISH: US stock indexes could fall further if these Fed officials, especially those speaking after the CPI print, say they are more hesitant to cut interest rates this year as tariffs may reignite US inflation.
  • BULLISH: US stock indexes could rebound if these Fed officials view the potential inflationary impact from US tariffs as being “transitory”, in turn allowing the Fed to eventually cut rates later this year.

 

 

US500 in focus

FXTM’s US500 tracks the S&P 500 – the most widely-used benchmark for US stock markets.

At the time of writing, the US500 is testing support around the big 5,200 level.

From a technical perspective, it appears to have met the textbook threshold for “oversold” conditions, as its 14-day relative strength has dropped below the 30 line.

This suggests a near-term technical pullback could be in order (depending on how today’s NFP and Powell speech pan out).

S&P 500 falls sharply further into technical correction

 

  • BEARISH: If the downside momentum persists over the coming week, the US500 may fall to the big, round 5k level – a level last seen 12 months ago (April 2024).

The US500 at the 5,000 level would put it within spitting distance of a ‘bear market”!

NOTE: A “bear market” is when prices have fallen 20% from its recent peak. 
A 20% drop from the US500’s all-time intraday high of 6151.3 (on February 19th, 2025) would be 4921.04.

 

  • BULLISH: If there’s an abrupt turnaround in risk sentiment, perhaps by way of an easing of trade war/stagflation/recession fears, that could see the US500 recover back to 5400.

 

 

Over the long term …

Wall Street experts still predict the US stock markets to recover eventually by this time next year, with the aggregated 12-month target price for the S&P 500 now standing at 6822.87.

If those long-term predictions come true …

That would mark a new record high for the S&P 500/US500, and a whopping 26.4% in potential upside over the coming year.

However, before it can presumably get there, traders must first battle through the twists and turns in the days ahead pertaining to the Trump-led trade war.

Although market fears are still running high, and risks still aplenty, there are bound to be sizeable trading opportunities amidst all the market volatility expected in the coming week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
30 Mar

Speculators add to Japanese & European Bets while US Dollar & Commodity Currencies Bets Slide

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (14,881 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,048 contracts), the Euro (6,100 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,087 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,412 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (280 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,997 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,218 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,123 contracts), Bitcoin (-662 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-372 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

RoundUp: Speculators continued to add to Japanese & European currencies while US Dollar & Commodity currencies see lower bets

The speculative landscape for the currency futures this week continued to be a mixed bag with some major currencies seeing sentiment gains versus the US Dollar while others continued to see weak sentiment levels persist.

The US Dollar Index futures saw slightly higher speculator contracts this week with a small gain of 280 contracts. But overall, the US Dollar Index bets have fallen in three out of the past five weeks and by a total of -9,300 contracts over these past five weeks, bringing the total bullish position to just +7,468 contracts (down by more than 50% of 3 weeks ago). The Dollar Index price has remained in a short-term downtrend that started in the new year and has taken the price from over 109.00 to the current level of approximately 104.00. The 102.50 and the very significant level of 100.00 still linger below as major support barriers if the downtrend continues.

The Euro speculator positions have continued to see positive sentiment with gains in six straight weeks and the overall position has risen by +129,950 contracts in the last six weeks through Tuesday. The Euro standing for speculators is at the highest level since September after a 20-week spell in bearish territory from October to early March. The Euro futures price trades around the 1.0825 level currently, up from around the 1.0250 levels to end 2024 but would need to breakthrough the tough 1.1250 resistance to see a strong breakout to the upside and perhaps, a new Euro bull market.

The British pound sterling led the currencies in bullish bets on the week and overall, the GBP speculator positions have risen for eight straight weeks through Tuesday. This has brought the overall spec standing to a +44,283 contract bullish position – the highest since November. The GBP futures price has been on a bullish run since the beginning of the new year and is currently right at a significant overhead resistance level of 1.3000. The test of this level will determine the next path for the GBP as a breakthrough above 1.3000 could see a retest of the 2024 high (just below 1.3500) or we could see a breakdown and testing of lower levels (200-weekly ma at 1.2715 & previous support around 1.2500-1.2650).

The Japanese yen speculators boosted their bets this week for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks with a total +154,787 contract gain over that time. This week’s spec level is the third highest level on record at a total of +125,376 contracts for the yen and demonstrates how bullish speculators are on the currency. However, it remains to be seen if this level of sentiment can propel the JPY to higher price levels. The yen remains in a historically weak position versus the US Dollar as the USDJPY trades right around the 150.00 level and the currency pair has been bid up relatively quickly anytime there is a dip below this threshold. There is going to need a sustained push below the 150.00 level to get traction on a yen bullish case.

The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars (commodity currencies) are all in similar situations currently in terms of speculator positioning. All three sport strength scores (current levels compared to last 3-years of spec bets) of 30 or under with the Canadian dollar at 30, Australian at 21 and the New Zealand currency at 16. Recently, the New Zealand dollar speculator positions fell to an all-time record low of -55,765 contracts on March 4th. Perhaps, the worst of the sentiment is over for these currencies in this down cycle but we would need to see a sustained turning of the bearish positions in conjunction with price trends coming out of the deep downtrends all three currencies are in now.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (77 percent), the Mexican Peso (59 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (21 percent), the US Dollar Index (22 percent) and the Swiss Franc (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.6 percent)
EuroFX (53.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (51.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (26.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.5 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (49 percent) and the Brazilian Real (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (34 percent), the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the Mexican Peso (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-16.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.2 percent)
EuroFX (49.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (22.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (37.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.74.710.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.131.98.5
– Net Position:7,468-7,945477
– Gross Longs:22,6991,3852,953
– Gross Shorts:15,2319,3302,476
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.278.431.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.216.7-7.5

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 65,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.255.812.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.570.87.0
– Net Position:65,525-100,31634,791
– Gross Longs:189,796375,75381,743
– Gross Shorts:124,271476,06946,952
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.747.050.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:49.5-47.823.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.025.516.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.952.013.5
– Net Position:44,283-50,6826,399
– Gross Longs:109,01648,84332,226
– Gross Shorts:64,73399,52525,827
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.041.275.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.3-26.741.4

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.830.614.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.675.311.4
– Net Position:125,376-135,74010,364
– Gross Longs:160,47492,99944,965
– Gross Shorts:35,098228,73934,601
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.33.986.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.2-19.7-8.4

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.982.612.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.728.822.2
– Net Position:-37,59346,102-8,509
– Gross Longs:4,17870,83010,519
– Gross Shorts:41,77124,72819,028
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.774.642.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-12.527.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -129,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.483.58.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.533.612.5
– Net Position:-129,534140,196-10,662
– Gross Longs:17,948234,77424,617
– Gross Shorts:147,48294,57835,279
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.973.812.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-9.22.8

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -77,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.666.312.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.620.615.7
– Net Position:-77,44682,329-4,883
– Gross Longs:28,124119,38123,317
– Gross Shorts:105,57037,05228,200
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.379.036.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.47.1-0.1

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -41,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.378.55.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.926.46.5
– Net Position:-41,56742,865-1,298
– Gross Longs:13,43564,6174,082
– Gross Shorts:55,00221,7525,380
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.482.336.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-9.69.7

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.128.03.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.170.73.4
– Net Position:59,039-58,694-345
– Gross Longs:89,47738,5564,376
– Gross Shorts:30,43897,2504,721
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.944.020.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.0-23.312.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.227.03.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.266.01.2
– Net Position:40,349-42,5532,204
– Gross Longs:70,03029,4113,556
– Gross Shorts:29,68171,9641,352
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.69.033.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.4-38.710.4

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,841 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:84.03.34.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.97.24.3
– Net Position:1,179-1,150-29
– Gross Longs:24,3769451,207
– Gross Shorts:23,1972,0951,236
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.034.713.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.7-36.3-6.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
30 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Yen, Live Cattle, Steel & Silver lead weekly Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position continues to be at the top of the extremes list and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 22.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 125,376 net contracts (just below the recent record high) this week with a bump up by 2,412 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 94.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.4 this week. The speculator position registered 117,987 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 14,562 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 4.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,771 net contracts this week with a dip by -635 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver


The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 14.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 60,950 net contracts this week with a small decline of -1,348 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real


The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level sits at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 37.4 this week.

The speculator position was 40,349 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -372 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at just a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,900,087 net contracts this week with a small gain of 5,853 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.0 this week. The speculator position was -54,006 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,702 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal


The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 7.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -49,278 net contracts this week with a drop by -17,071 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat


The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 11.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.1 this week. The speculator position was -82,548 net contracts this week with a reduction of -6,069 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar


Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 16.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 9.0 this week. The speculator position was -41,567 net contracts this week with a decline by -1,123 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

COT Updates Metals Opinions
28 Mar

High soybean prices in Zambia and Malawi may make chicken costly too: lack of competition is to blame

By Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, University of Johannesburg and Namhla Landani, University of Johannesburg 

Poultry is one of the cheapest protein sources for the growing population of the east and southern Africa region. That makes soybeans critical to food security in the region, as they are an important input in chicken feed.

Soybean pricing and production dynamics have been challenging for Zambia and Malawi, threatening poultry production in the region.

Poultry feed makes up 60%-70% of the total cost of poultry production. Soybean prices directly affect the affordability of poultry and the ability of producers to be competitive. Small-scale independent poultry producers in particular have a hard time because they buy feed from the open market and are too small to determine prices. Large producers source feed from their own operations and determine soybean prices.

Figure 1: From soybeans to poultry

Source: Authors compilation

Zambia and Malawi are the key soybean producers in east and southern Africa. Both countries were hit hard in 2024 by climate change related weather and by the behaviour of players in the soybean market, including processors and traders.

Zambia’s soybean production fell by 74% because of poor rains and also because of farmers being squeezed. Large buyers had negotiated very low prices in previous years, so farmers planted less.

Malawi’s production also fell (20%), but much less than Zambia’s. Yet the surge in soybean prices in Malawi by 48% between May 2024 and November 2024 was out of proportion with the drop in production, and even surpassed Zambian prices (Figure 2). Malawian prices were the highest in the region, even though it produced enough to export.

We are economists at the African Market Observatory, which monitors prices of staple foods and conducts research on market dynamics. We analyse market concentration and barriers to entry, within and across countries in east and southern Africa, and we do in-depth field work.

Our work shows that competition issues, such as the ability of large buyers to influence prices and high margins, are at the heart of the surge in prices and low production in Malawi and Zambia. The climate-related weather effects are an additional factor.

Figure 2: Soybean prices in Zambia, Malawi and South Africa (benchmark) (3-month moving averages)

Market outcomes

In Zambia, dominant buyers of soybean offered farmers very low prices during the 2023 season – well below US$400/t and the South African benchmark (Figure 2). This meant that farmers planted less than half the 2023 crop in the 2024 season.

Crops were also affected by poor rainfall. Malawi’s 2024 production fell by 20% because of the worst drought in 100 years. The drop in production was lower than expected, demonstrating that farmers can adapt to weather changes. Prices still rose, however, driven by the highly concentrated soybean trading and processing market.

Cheapest source of proteins

Poultry is one of the cheapest sources of protein and has one of the lowest environmental impacts. It is essential that the value chain works well from feed to chicken rearing and becomes more resilient to extreme weather events.

The experience of 2024 shows what can go wrong.

Poultry demand in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow more than fourfold by 2050. Producers will need affordable feed.

Among them are many small-scale independent producers who rely on competitive markets for their inputs. Yet we found that with the escalating soybean and feed prices in Malawi from late 2021, and higher prices for day-old chicks, small independent producers had negative margins, meaning they made a loss in the second half of 2021. High feed prices undermine the competitiveness of Malawi’s poultry industry.

Aside from South Africa (which relies on genetically modified soybean), Zambia and Malawi have been the largest producers in the region. These countries have been exporting around half of their production (including soycake) to neighbouring countries with larger populations such as Tanzania and Kenya.

Zambia’s production plummet

Between 2020 and 2023, Zambia’s soybean production grew from 297,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes (Figure 3). In 2024, its production collapsed by 74% to 170,000 tonnes. This sharp decline was primarily due to farmers opting to plant less soybean because of the low prices offered from processors in 2023 (Figure 2). Farmers bought 50% less soybean seed for the 2024 season than the 2023 season.

Figure 3: Soybean production in Zambia and Malawi

With limited storage facilities available for farmers in most countries in the region, including Zambia, farmers typically have to sell to traders and processors shortly after harvest.

In Zambia, soybeans are produced by many small farmers, so they compete to sell their crop to a few main processors in a concentrated market. As a result, these processors have greater power to influence the terms of trade, such as price. This was especially evident in 2023 when processors offered farmers lower prices (Figure 2).

Poor rainfall linked to the 2023/24 El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is the warming of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, causing drought in southern Africa while inducing heavy rainfalls and floods in eastern Africa, did have an impact across southern Africa, including Malawi and Zambia. While Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania recorded above average rainfall, their soybean output is low.

Resilience to climate change impacts requires deepening and diversifying agriculture production across countries and regional trade to meet demand.

Soybean prices in Malawi remain high but Zambia’s prices stabilise

Malawi’s prices increased rapidly to over US$700/tonne in June 2024, surpassing Zambia’s, and continued to rise to almost $900/tonne at the end of the year, far above other countries in the region. The reason couldn’t be reduced production from poor rainfall, because production still exceeded local demand. This happened even as the Malawi government put export restrictions on soybeans (but not soymeal). The price surge raises competition concerns in Malawi, where trading and processing is highly concentrated. In theory, highly concentrated markets are characterised by high prices, due to a lack of price competition.

By comparison, Zambia’s prices moderated because of imports. In addition, the low soybean prices offered to farmers in 2023 also meant that processors had crushed surplus soybeans, thereby building up soymeal stock. This reduced the demand for soybeans, as did power cuts in Zambia, which limited crushers’ operations.

Urgent next steps

Soybean developments over 2024 show the need to consider how competition issues within and across borders can undermine the resilience of regional food markets and hinder the ability of small producers to compete. Zambia is currently conducting a commercial poultry market inquiry. But a regional approach in monitoring markets and tackling anti-competitive conduct is necessary to support poultry production.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, Economist and Researcher at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg and Namhla Landani, Economist at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Soft Commodities
28 Mar

Week Ahead: EURUSD braces for Trump tariffs, EU inflation, US jobs report

By ForexTime 

  • EURUSD up over 4% so far in March 2025; set for biggest monthly gain since Nov. 2022
  • Apr 1: Eurozone’s March CPI could offer mixed readings for EURUSD
  • Apr 2: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs could hurt US economy and USD
  • Apr 4: US NFP report, Chair Powell’s speech may offer clues on next Fed rate cut
  • Bloomberg FX model: 73.7% chance EURUSD trades between 1.0650 – 1.0934 next week

 

The world’s most-traded FX pair is set for its biggest monthly gain in over 2 years!

At the time of writing, EURUSD is up about 4.08% so far in March 2025.

If it holds around these levels, that would the EURUSD’s biggest 1-month gain since the 5.3% advance in November 2022.

Why did EURUSD rise in March 2025?

Two main reasons:

1) Weaker USD: Markets are worried that President Trump’s tariffs would actually hurt US economic growth. 

Against such a dimmer outlook, the US dollar has weakened against almost all of its G10 peers (except against the Japanese Yen) in March 2025.

 

2) Historic change to Germany government spending: Earlier this month, Europe’s largest economy amended its constitution to get rid of its so-called “debt brake”. 

This “historic” decision is set to unleash hundreds of billions of euros on defense and infrastructure spending.

With more government spending for Europe’s largest economy, that has sweetened the Eurozone’s economic outlook, hence the strengthening euro.

NOTE: The euro has also strengthened against almost all its G10 peers (except the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krone) so far in March 2025.

EUR strengthened against most G10 peers in March 2025

 

With all that in mind …

Can EURUSD extend its month-to-date (March 2025) gains into Q2 2025?

This question will be especially pertinent as we enter a week filled with these major events on the global economic calendar:

Sunday, March 30

  • Europe, UK goes into Daylight Savings Time

Monday, March 31

  • JPY: Japan February industrial production, retail sales
  • AU200 index: March Melbourne institute inflation
  • CNH: China March PMIs
  • THB: Thailand February external trade
  • GER40 index: Germany March CPI; February retail sales

Tuesday, April 1

  • JP225 index: Japan February jobless rate; 1Q Tankan index
  • AUD: RBA rate decision; February retail sales
  • CN50 index: China March manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone March CPI; February unemployment
  • US30 index: US March ISM manufacturing

Wednesday, April 2

  • USDInd: Trump’s “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs incoming?

Thursday, April 3

  • AUD: Australia February trade balance
  • CN50 index: China March services PMI
  • EU50 index: Eurozone February PPI; ECB meeting minutes
  • RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; ISM services index; speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
  • US500 index: 25% US tariffs on auto imports kick in

Friday, April 4

  • SG20 index: Singapore February retail sales
  • GER40 index: Germany March construction PMI; February factory orders
  • CAD: Canada March unemployment rate
  • US500 index: US March nonfarm payrolls
  • USDInd: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

 

From the list above, we highlight 4 specific events that could trigger massive reactions in the world’s most-traded FX pair:

  • Tuesday, April 1st: Eurozone March consumer price index (CPI)

Here’s what economists predict for this important set of inflation data:

  • Headline CPI year-on-year (March 2025 vs. March 2024): 2.3%
    If so, this would match February’s 2.3% year-on-year figure.
  • Headline CPI month-on-month (March 2025 vs. February 2025): 0.6%
    If so, this would be notably higher than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure.
  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) year-on-year: 2.5%
    If so, this would be a slight easing from February’s 2.6% core year-on-year figure.

Lower-than-expected CPI prints which encourages more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could weaken EURUSD.

 

 

  • Wednesday, April 2nd: “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs?

April 2nd is the deadline for when US President Donald Trump intends to roll out “reciprocal” tariffs, which suggests an “eye-for-an-eye” approach.

This essentially points to the raising of US tariffs to fix trade imbalances against its major trading partners, including the Eurozone.

Markets initially believed that these “reciprocal tariffs” would actually slow down US economic growth, hence the US dollar’s steep drop in early March.

More recently, markets hope that Trump’s next tariff salvo may not be as damaging as initially feared.  Hence, the euro has weakened against the US dollar in 7 out of the past 8 daily trading sessions.

There is still much uncertainty about what this major tariff announcement will look like, with markets largely adopting a “wait and see mode”.

Ultimately, if the market’s worst-case-scenario is confirmed, that could further dent the US dollar while adding to EURUSD’s gains from March 2025.

 

 

  • Friday, April 4th: US March nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Here’s what economists predict for this closely-watched jobs report:

  • Headline NFP figure: 135,000 (new jobs added to US labour market)

If so, this would be lower than February’s 151,000 headline NFP figure.

  • Unemployment rate: 4.1%

If so, this would match February’s unemployment rate

  • Average hourly earnings month-on-month (March 2025 vs. Feb 2025): 0.3%

If so, this would match February’s figure.

Stronger-than-expected US jobs data, which points to resilience in the world’s largest economy, should bolster the US dollar and drag EURUSD lower.

 

  • Friday, April 4th: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Just 3 hours after the US jobs report’s release, the Chair of the Federal Reserve – the US central bak – is set to share his economic outlook.

Markets will be eager to find out his take not just on the latest NFP numbers, but also what President Trump’s tariff announcements earlier in the week would mean for the resilience of the US economy.

A weakening US jobs market that faces more damage from tariffs could prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner than expected – a weaker USD scenario.

At the time of writing, markets are forecasting a:

  • 54% chance (almost evenly split) that the Fed will cut its benchmark rates by another 75-basis points (3 more rate cuts, 25-bps per FOMC meeting) by end-2025.
  • 70% chance that the next Fed rate cut will happen at the June FOMC meeting.

 

Looking at the charts …

At the time of writing, EURUSD is trading just below the big, round 1.08000 number, around its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Note also that EURUSD earlier this week found crucial support at its 200-day SMA.

EURUSD in "wait and see" mode around 1.080 ahead of more US tariffs

 

Bloomberg’s FX model currently predicts a 74% chance that EURUSD will trade between 1.0650 – 1.0934 over the coming week.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • EURUSD could weaken below its 200-day SMA and towards 1.0650 if we see:

    – weaker-than-expected Eurozone CPI which paves way for ECB rate cuts

    – more US trade tariffs on EU, but not as damaging on the US economy

    – stronger-than-expected US jobs report and a hawkish Chair Powell that pushes back on the next Fed rate cut

 

  • EURUSD could revisit its latest cycle high around 1.094 or above if we see:

    – stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI which delays ECB rate cuts

    – reciprocal US trade tariffs that confirm market’s worst-case fears by hurting the US economy and dollar

    – weaker-than-expected US jobs report and a dovish Chair Powell that opens the door for a sooner-than-June Fed rate cut

     

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Forex and Currency News Opinions
28 Mar

Technical Indicators Signal Major Breakout Potential Despite Recent Price Dip

Source: Clive Maund (3/27/25)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund explains why he thinks it now may be the time to buy or add positions of Armory Mining Corp.’s (ARMY:CSE; RMRYF:OTC; J2S:FRA).

Although the price of Armory Mining Corp.’s (ARMY:CSE; RMRYF:OTC; J2S:FRA) stock has drifted off since we first looked at it early in February, its technical condition has strengthened greatly as we will see when we come to review its latest charts which means that it is more of a buy now.

Armory Mining Corp. changed its name from Spey Resources in November and is a junior company focused on exploring for critical minerals that are vital to the future of security and military applications, such as antimony, gold, silver, lithium, and various other minerals that will be in increasing demand in the future with the prospect of much higher prices for most of them. So it’s not surprising that the company’s stock has been under accumulation for many months, and especially in recent weeks, and is completing a large base pattern from which it is set to break out into a major bull market soon.

Before we look at the stock charts, which make a clear and robust case for buying Armory Mining, we will first overview the fundamentals of the company using slides lifted from the investor deck.

Armory Minerals has four projects situated in proven mining districts that have past-producing mines where the infrastructure is good. The approximate locations of these projects are shown on the following slide. Three of them are in Canada, with the remaining one in Argentina. The Ammo Property in Nova Scotia and the Riley Creek property in British Columbia are chiefly antimony and gold projects, while the Kaslo Silver property in British Columbia is, as its name implies, primarily silver, and Candela II in Argentina is a lithium deposit. . .

With the growing imposition of tariffs and trade barriers, the importance of producing antimony in North America is becoming increasingly clear since China is the dominant source of this semi-metal, and its price looks set to continue higher.

The following pages from the investor deck overview each of the projects in turn.

Since we last looked at Armory in February, there has been news that the company is to retain control of this lithium project because American Salars Lithium Inc. (USLI:CSE; USLIF:OTC; Z3P:FWB; A3E2NY:WKN) has relinquished its option to develop it.

This slide details the importance of different critical minerals to the major world trading blocs.

The company highlights are on the below slide.

On this last slide, we see that the company has a reasonable 38.2 million shares in issue.

Now, we will review the latest charts for Armory Mining.

The situation is paradoxical — although we have taken quite a hit with this since it was recommended early in February, the charts look far more bullish than they did even then for reasons that we will now examine.

Starting with the 3-year chart we see again that Armory Mining is late in a basing process following the severe bear market from September – October of 2022 through early – mid 2024. The difference between now and when we first looked at it in February is that there has been a massive buildup in upside volume even though the price has retreated somewhat that has driven both volume indicators shown strongly higher. This is very bullish and may even be described as creating a “pressure cooker” effect.

On the 18-month chart, we can see much more clearly what has been going on in the recent past. Back in February, we had thought, on the basis of the strong volume pattern and volume indicators, that the Handle part of the pattern was about to complete and that the price should advance, but instead, it broke lower and dropped back some, requiring us to adjust the boundaries of the Pan & Handle pattern.

However, although the price has lost ground, the technical picture has strengthened dramatically. This is because volume became extremely heavy with most of this volume being upside volume, as evidenced by the volume towers and also by both the volume indicators shown rising steeply. A big reason why this is so bullish is because this persistent heavy volume means that there has been a lot of stock rotation with the new buyers “locking up” a lot of stock, because they won’t be inclined to sell until they have turned a significant profit — and we can presume that they bought for a reason. What this means is that any significant influx of demand will find a market short of stock, so if they want to buy they will have to bid the price up. We will now look at the recent dip in more detail on a 6-month chart.

On the 6-month chart, we can easily see the persistent heavy upside volume as the price has drifted somewhat lower in the orderly downtrend shown and how it has driven volume indicators higher — and they have remained buoyant as the price has drifted even lower.

This downtrend has brought the price back to a zone of significant support, and we can see that the stock is already nudging a breakout from this downtrend, which looks likely to occur soon. for the reasons set out above, a breakout from this downtrend could quickly lead to a steep ascent from here.

Holders of Armory Mining should therefore stay long and this is considered to be an excellent point to buy or add to positions. The first target for an advance is the resistance at the top of the Handle approaching and at CA$0.27. The second target is another band of resistance in the CA$0.60 area with higher targets possible.

Armory Mining Corp.’s website.

Armory Mining Corp.’s (ARMY:CSE; RMRYF:OTC; J2S:FRA) closed for trading at CA$0.09, US$0.0589 on March 26, 2025.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. American Salars Lithium has a consulting relationship with Street Smart an affiliate of Streetwise Reports. Street Smart Clients pay a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of American Salars Lithium.
  3. Clive Maund: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  5.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Metals Opinions
26 Mar

CN50 index sensitive to flood of earnings this week

By ForexTime 

  • 34% of CN50 members reporting earnings this week.
  • Earnings by BYD and China Merchants Bank helped support CN50 above 21-day SMA.
  • 24% of CN50 members left to report earnings by the weekend.
  • Banking stocks carry the most weightage (23.8%) on the CN50 index.
  • CN50 bulls eager for more signs of economic resilience and support.

 

FXTM’s CN50 index is bracing for even more earnings announcements this week.

NOTE: FXTM’s CN50 index tracks the underlying FTSE China A50 index, which measures the overall performance of the 50 biggest A Share Chinese companies.

For the entire week, about a third (34%) of the 50 members on this stock index are set to unveil their respective financial results.

Earlier this week, BYD and China Merchants Bank – two of the 5-biggest CN50 members – have already made their respective announcements, which helped keep CN50 supported above its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

However, initial gains were thwarted around the 13,470 region – a notable resistance back in February 2025 as well, before returning to test support around the 21-day SMA once more.

Also, the 13,470 region served as the mid-range for the CN50’s sideways pattern in most of Q4 2024.

CN50 to react to earnings

 

But there’s more!

Some 24% of the CN50’s members are due to release their earnings in the days ahead.

  • This includes many major banks, such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Industrial Bank, and the Agricultural Bank of China.
  • Banking stocks have the most members (12) represented on the CN50 index of any other industry group, collectively account for nearly 24% of this index.

In short, these earnings could hold great influence over the CN50’s near-term performance.

 

And the CN50 could use all the help it can get.

The CN50 has lagged behind FXTM’s other Chinese stock indexes, namely the CHINAH and HK50, in terms of their respective performances so far in 2025:

  • CN50: down 0.8% year-to-date
  • HK50: up 17.1% year-to-date
  • CHINAH: up 18.8% year-to-date

Even though it’s pretty much flat on a year-to-date basis, the CN50 is still holding up well relative to its US counterparts:

  • US500: down 1.8% year-to-date
  • NAS100: down 3.4% year-to-date
  • US400: down 3.6% year-to-date
  • RUS2000: down 6% year-to-date

 

Earnings boost enough for CN50 bulls?

Granted, while an earnings boost will be roundly welcomed by CN50 bulls (those hoping prices will go higher), it’s unlikely to rapidly narrow the year-to-date gap with the likes of CHINAH and HK50.

After all, the latter two indices have soared on the AI-mania that’s now swaying Chinese markets.

Ultimately, given how economically-sensitive CN50’s constituents are, this index may need further evidence of incoming support to shore up China’s recovery.

Hence, beyond the corporate earnings announcements, traders and investors are also set to draw clues about the overall health of China’s economy via these upcoming major data releases:

  • Thursday, March 27th: February industrial profits
  • Monday, March 31st: March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs)

Should concerns surrounding global economic growth become less pronounced, that could carve out more upside for the CN50 index, and vice versa.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • BULLISH: Better-than-expected earnings, along with easing concerns over the global economic outlook, should raise the odds of CN50 reclaiming the 13,800 handle.

     

  • BEARISH: Disappointing CN50 member earnings this week, along with rising concerns about the global economic outlook, could drag this stock index below its 21-day SMA to potentially test its 50-day SMA as an immediate downside target. 

    The psychologically-important 13k level then lies further south to potentially shore up support.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
24 Mar

Duterte’s rendition, PH political turmoil and the ICC’s dilemma

By Dan Steinbock

On Thursday, the Philippines saw hours of political drama that left masses of Filipinos angry and ICC observers perplexed. The Duterte rendition could have long-lasting, adverse consequences in both the Philippines and the ICC.

In the Senate’s much-anticipated Duterte detention hearing on Thursday, Senator Imee Marcos, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, interviewed the key cabinet members of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., her brother. One by one, Marcos contrasted their responses with prior interviews, ICC and Interpol documents, highlighting deep gaps between official statements and actual realities.

In a telling moment, Secretary of Interior Jonvic Remulla said the government did not “plot” Duterte’s arrest prior to March 11. Then, Senator Marcos showed Remulla’s prior TV interview in which the minister acknowledged that he, the president, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. and Security Adviser Eduardo Año set the arrest of Duterte in motion.

Troubling inconsistencies

Secretary Año said the claims that he, along with the president, Justice Secretary Crispin Remulla, and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, had conspired to plan Duterte’s arrest were untrue. He was unaware of any coordination with the ICC and learned of the Interpol notice on March 11. Yet, Marcos cited Interpol’s communication stating the arrest was made “with prior consultation with the Philippine government.”

Año also said that any meeting regarding this matter occurred only after they were made aware of Interpol’s “red notice” for the former president’s arrest. Yet, the country’s transnational crime (PCTC) director Anthony Alcantara admitted the Interpol did not issue a red notice against Duterte, only a diffusion notice; that is, not a notice needed to undertake a provisional arrest, but a lower-level alert for information sharing.

Justice Secretary Remulla contradicted his 2024 statement under oath before another Senate hearing that any ICC arrest order or Interpol notice should be brought before local courts. Instead, Duterte was pushed forcefully into, oddly, a private plane by Police Maj. Gen. Nicolas Torre III, after Duterte’s lawyer was handcuffed.

Vice President Sara Duterte said her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, was taken into custody “without a valid warrant issued by a Philippine court, without due process.” The ICC is being used for political persecution “to demolish the opposition” prior to the 2025 and 2028 elections.

As legal scholar Alexis F. Medina concluded in his prior opinion and during the hearing, the arrest of the former president raises “several critical constitutional concerns – due process, warrantless arrests, and liberty of abode, among others.”

During the weekend, Sen. Imee Marcos said that she hasn’t had a conversation with her brother, President Marcos Jr., in a long time.

The ICC’s original compromise

In the 1990s, the special tribunals established by the UN Security Council to prosecute crimes in the Balkans and Rwanda fostered efforts to create a permanent court. The International Criminal Court (ICC) was the international community’s response to renewed atrocities and ethnic conflict. But it was constrained at birth.

In the 1998 Rome Conference, the scope of the court’s jurisdiction was one of the most intensely debated topics. Many NGOs and rights organizations advocated universal jurisdiction. By contrast, the United States and some of its allies advocated jurisdiction based on UN Security Council authorization.

In the subsequent compromise between the idealists and the realists, the ICC would have jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed on the territory of a member state, by the national of a member state, or in other situations when the Security Council has authorized court action.

This compromise allows the court to investigate and prosecute the nationals of a non-member state; as in the case of Philippines.

Allegations of partiality: Kenya, Uhuru and ICC

Cognizant of its limitations, the ICC began its operations cautiously in 2003. It moved ahead only when the country in question had requested court intervention (Congo DR, Central African Republic, Uganda) or when the UN Security Council had authorized the role of the court.

Despite increasing international divides in the early 2010s, the ICC’s pattern changed when its prosecutor launched its first investigation without explicit state support, against President Uhuru Kenyatta (who eventually beat the case). In the messy case involving lucrative external interests, the line between legitimate prosecution and political persecution grew thin.

Many African nations regard the court, which has largely focused only on the poor, resource-rich countries of Africa, as a “toy of declining imperial powers.”

Yet, the ICC didn’t take a step back. Its ambitious prosecutors ignored caution engaging in investigations, which brought the court into direct contests with several non-member states, including Russia, Libya, Myanmar, U.S. in Afghanistan, and more recently, Israel in Gaza. The results were predictable.

In two decades, the prosecutor has secured convictions in only 4 cases, typically in cases against citizens of member countries. Cases against non-member state nationals have yielded almost nothing.

Rising tensions

Oddly, the role of Martin Romualdez, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, in the ongoing dynastic debacles has been largely excluded in international media, even though in domestic debate it is seen as vital to the turmoil.

Moreover, the Marcos/Duterte debacle is characterized as a battle of “two political dynasties.” Yet, the Dutertes have neither the economic resources nor the links of President Marcos Jr with the financial elites. After his victory, the president convened some of the country’s “boldest business minds” to “strengthen synergies” between the private and public sectors. To Marcos champions, the “billionaire club’s” role is only advisory. To Duterte supporters, it is reminiscent of Marcos Sr’s cronies.

Furthermore, the government’s mounting debacles – murky budget items and eroding economy, outsourcing of military sovereignty to rotational US bases, perceived illicit measures in Duterte’s expulsion – have stirred growing resentment among the populace.

The government insists it is only observing international pressures. Yet, critics argue that some cabinet members have violated the Philippine constitution and its Cooperation Agreement with the ICC. The ICC observers fear its procedures may have been undermined.

Given the present course, the 2010s Uhuru/ICC pattern – domestic political rivalry offshored to the ICC, uncertainty in domestic economy, detrimental geopolitics and weaker economic prospects – may now be evolving in the Philippines.

About the Author:

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net 

 

The original page-one op-ed was published by The Manila Times on March 24, 2025

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
18 Mar

Museums have tons of data, and AI could make it more accessible − but standardizing and organizing it across fields won’t be easy

By Bradley Wade Bishop, University of Tennessee 

Ice cores in freezers, dinosaurs on display, fish in jars, birds in boxes, human remains and ancient artifacts from long gone civilizations that few people ever see – museum collections are filled with all this and more.

These collections are treasure troves that recount the planet’s natural and human history, and they help scientists in a variety of different fields such as geology, paleontology, anthropology and more. What you see on a trip to a museum is only a sliver of the wonders held in their collection.

Museums generally want to make the contents of their collections available for teachers and researchers, either physically or digitally. However, each collection’s staff has its own way of organizing data, so navigating these collections can prove challenging.

Creating, organizing and distributing the digital copies of museum samples or the information about physical items in a collection requires incredible amounts of data. And this data can feed into machine learning models or other artificial intelligence to answer big questions.

Currently, even within a single research domain, finding the right data requires navigating different repositories. AI can help organize large amounts of data from different collections and pull out information to answer specific questions.

But using AI isn’t a perfect solution. A set of shared practices and systems for data management between museums could improve the data curation and sharing necessary for AI to do its job. These practices could help both humans and machines make new discoveries from these valuable collections.

As an information scientist who studies scientists’ approaches to and opinions on research data management, I’ve seen how the world’s physical collection infrastructure is a patchwork quilt of objects and their associated metadata.

AI tools can do amazing things, such as make 3D models of digitized versions of the items in museum collections, but only if there’s enough well-organized data about that item available. To see how AI can help museum collections, my team of researchers started by conducting focus groups with the people who managed museum collections. We asked what they are doing to get their collections used by both humans and AI.

Collection managers

When an item comes into a museum collection, the collection managers are the people who describe that item’s features and generate data about it. That data, called metadata, allows others to use it and might include things like the collector’s name, geographic location, the time it was collected, and in the case of geological samples, the epoch it’s from. For samples from an animal or plant, it might include its taxonomy, which is the set of Latin names that classify it.

All together, that information adds up to a mind-boggling amount of data.

But combining data across domains with different standards is really tricky. Fortunately, collection managers have been working to standardize their processes across disciplines and for many types of samples. Grants have helped science communities build tools for standardization.

In biological collections, the tool Specify allows managers to quickly classify specimens with drop-down menus prepopulated with standards for taxonomy and other parameters to consistently describe the incoming specimens.

A common metadata standard in biology is Darwin Core. Similar well-established metadata and tools exist across all the sciences to make the workflow of taking real items and putting them into a machine as easy as possible.

Special tools like these and metadata help collection managers make data from their objects reusable for research and educational purposes.

Many of the items in museum collections don’t have a lot of information describing their origins. AI tools can help fill in gaps.

All the small things

My team and I conducted 10 focus groups, with a total of 32 participants from several physical sample communities. These included collection managers across disciplines, including anthropology, archaeology, botany, geology, ichthyology, entomology, herpetology and paleontology.

Each participant answered questions about how they accessed, organized, stored and used data from their collections in an effort to make their materials ready for AI to use. While human subjects need to provide consent to be studied, most species do not. So, an AI can collect and analyze the data from nonhuman physical collections without privacy or consent concerns.

We found that collection managers from different fields and institutions have lots of different practices when it comes to getting their physical collections ready for AI. Our results suggest that standardizing the types of metadata managers record and the ways they store it across collections could make the items in these samples more accessible and usable.

Additional research projects like our study can help collection managers build up the infrastructure they’ll need to make their data machine-ready. Human expertise can help inform AI tools that make new discoveries based on the old treasures in museum collections.The Conversation

About the Author:

Bradley Wade Bishop, Professor of Information Sciences, University of Tennessee

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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