Archive for Metals – Page 38

05 Oct

Silver ETF dropped by -1.91 percent – October 5th 2022

By InvestMacro.com | #metals #silver #xagusd #slv

Silver End of Day Update: October 05 2022

The Silver SLV ETF finished the day with a decline by -1.91 percent, closing the day around the 18.99 price level, according to unofficial data at the New York close. SLV opened the at 18.69 with the high reaching approximately 19.1085 and the low of the day bottoming at 18.3684.

The Silver RSI level is Bullish:

The Relative Strength Index, an indicator that can indicate overbought (above 80) and oversold levels (below 20), shows that the current RSI score is at 61.9. This is a Bullish reading on the daily time-frame.

Silver Trends:

The Silver SLV ETF has risen by 5.15 percent over the past 10 days while seeing a gain by 7.78 over the past 30 days. The 90-day change is -6.50 while the 180-day return and the 365-day return are -12.45 and -22.24, respectively.

By investmacro.com

Financial News Metals
05 Oct
Copper

Copper JJC ETF rose by 1.43 percent today – October 05 2022

By InvestMacro.com | #metals #copper #xcuusd #jjc

Copper End of Day Update: October 05 2022

The Copper JJC ETF finished the day with an increase of 1.43 percent and closed the day around the 17.72 price level, according to unofficial data at the New York close. JJC opened the day at 17.41 with the high of the day being 17.78 and the low of the day at 17.26.

The current price is trading slightly above its 50-day simple moving average after a long recent drawdown. The ETF price, meanwhile, is trading quite a ways under the 200-day moving average.

Copper got a lift by 1.43 percent - October 05 2022

The Copper JJC ETF RSI level is Bullish:

The Relative Strength Index, an indicator that can indicate overbought (above 80) and oversold levels (below 20), shows that the current RSI score is at 56.0. This is a Bullish reading on the daily time-frame.

Copper Trends:

The Copper ETF is higher by 2.61 percent over the past 10 days while seeing a decline of -3.28 over the past 30 days. The 90-day change is -16.85 while the 180-day return and the 365-day return are -19.69 and -15.22, respectively.

Copper ETF is higher by 2.61 percent over the past 10 days

By investmacro.com

Financial News Metals
01 Oct

Metals Speculators continued to trim Gold bets to 179-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Palladium

The COT precious metals speculator bets were slightly lower this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Silver (2,398 contracts) with Palladium (250 contracts) showing a small positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-13,641 contracts) and Copper (-7,470 contracts) with Platinum (-2,229 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Metals data continues to be the downtrend of the Gold speculator positioning. Speculators dropped their Gold bets for the seventh consecutive week this week and that has now diminished the bullish Gold speculator position by a total of -90,770 contracts over the past 7-week period. This sentiment decline has pushed the overall Gold speculator standing (currently at +52,081 contracts) down to the lowest level of the past 179 weeks, dating back to April 23rd of 2019.

The Gold spot price has been in a downtrend in the second half of this year and has fallen by approximately 20 percent since reaching a high of approximately $2070.60 in March. This week saw the Gold price bounce off the $1615 support level to finish the week over 1 percent higher.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-27-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,504,9913226,0804-246,8729820,79235
Gold457,061152,0810-62,13810010,0571
Silver129,000075815-6,860896,1020
Copper173,66113-27,7561628,88486-1,12819
Palladium6,0801-831181,23682-40520
Platinum58,994201619-2,525932,3640
Natural Gas943,2410-152,12433121,1356930,98954
Brent167,44414-41,2574240,4906176720
Heating Oil290,2653111,41459-21,6254810,21134
Soybeans699,3112780,05138-50,20671-29,84521
Corn1,347,27811296,62268-229,43639-67,1864
Coffee185,149144,68077-46,664271,98418
Sugar710,887248,60147-56,409577,80818
Wheat290,77122,735234,67566-7,41072

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Palladium (18.2 percent) took the lead with the highest current score in the metals category (Copper had led the past bunch of months).

The metals category continues to have a very rough time in this investing environment and the speculators sentiment continues to be lacking as all five of the metals markets are in bearish extreme levels with scores below 20 percent.

The lowest scores are led by Gold at 0.0 percent (at the bottom of its 3-year range) and is followed by Platinum (9.3 percent), Silver (14.9 percent) and Copper (15.9 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.5 percent)
Silver (14.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.3 percent)
Copper (15.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.7 percent)
Platinum (9.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (12.3 percent)
Palladium (18.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (4.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (0.4 percent) fills out the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-29.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Platinum (-3.7 percent) followed by Silver (-3.0 percent).

 


Move Statistics:
Gold (-29.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-25.6 percent)
Silver (-3.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.0 percent)
Copper (0.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.4 percent)
Platinum (-3.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.1 percent)
Palladium (4.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 52,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,722 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.330.58.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.944.16.6
– Net Position:52,081-62,13810,057
– Gross Longs:207,154139,36140,325
– Gross Shorts:155,073201,49930,268
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.00.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.528.3-6.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.738.016.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.243.311.3
– Net Position:758-6,8606,102
– Gross Longs:49,98448,99320,681
– Gross Shorts:49,22655,85314,579
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.988.70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.05.3-13.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,756 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.250.28.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.233.69.1
– Net Position:-27,75628,884-1,128
– Gross Longs:50,72687,18814,608
– Gross Shorts:78,48258,30415,736
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.985.818.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.4-0.0-2.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.642.311.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.346.67.3
– Net Position:161-2,5252,364
– Gross Longs:23,94424,9426,675
– Gross Shorts:23,78327,4674,311
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.392.80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.74.8-14.1

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.057.915.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.737.621.8
– Net Position:-8311,236-405
– Gross Longs:1,5193,523922
– Gross Shorts:2,3502,2871,327
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.281.720.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-1.7-27.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions
25 Sep

Large drop in Gold Speculator bets leads COT Metals Changes

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Large drop in Gold bets leads Weekly Speculator Changes

Metals Futures Large Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher overall this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (4,269 contracts) with Silver (3,000 contracts) and Palladium (192 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-31,622 contracts) with Copper (-1,300 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Metals data this week was the sharp and continued decline in the Gold futures bets. Speculators dropped their Gold net positions this week by largest one-week amount in the past thirty-three weeks. The Gold position has now fallen for six straight weeks and by a total of -77,129 contracts over that 6-week time period. This bearishness has pushed the overall net positioning to a total of just +65,722 contracts, marking the lowest overall standing for Gold since April 23rd of 2019, a span of 178 weeks. The current investing environment has been a challenging one for Gold and the futures price this week touched the lowest level since April of 2020. Gold closed the week down over 1.6% and right around the $1,655.60 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-20-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,481,5451239,8788-261,5689421,69036
Gold469,395565,7220-75,4281009,7060
Silver132,1070-1,64012-5,629907,2694
Copper163,0584-20,2862223,21582-2,9298
Palladium5,9931-1,081171,26182-18033
Platinum62,900272,39012-5,496893,1065
Natural Gas960,2361-155,71132121,3086934,40362
Brent164,02511-37,9034836,732541,17125
Heating Oil292,6343214,09763-25,9414411,84439
Soybeans656,3101884,77339-55,48570-29,28822
Corn1,330,8419305,67769-241,23838-64,4396
Coffee191,433541,07274-42,998301,92617
Sugar744,972837,34544-35,86061-1,4856
Wheat285,5670-4,029149,98274-5,95380

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (21.7 percent) leads the metals markets with a score that is just outside an extreme bearish position of under 20 percent.

All of the other metals markets we cover continue to have scores under 20 percent with Gold at the lowest with 0.0 percent or the lowest level in three years. Silver (12.3 percent) is up over three percent from last week followed by Platinum (12.3 percent) and Palladium (16.8 percent). Platinum and Palladium are also higher than last week’s scores.


Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.0 percent)
Silver (12.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (21.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.7 percent)
Platinum (12.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (6.6 percent)
Palladium (16.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (6.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Palladium (5.0 percent) and Platinum (2.1 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-26.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores with a big negative jump from last week’s -9.4 percent trend score and is followed by Silver at a trend score of -5.0 percent.

Metals Speculator Strength Trend (6-Weeks)
Move Statistics:
Gold (-26.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.4 percent)
Silver (-5.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.2 percent)
Copper (6.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (2.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.9 percent)
Palladium (5.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.2 percent)

Individual COT Metals Market Charts:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,722 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -31,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,344 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.730.28.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.746.36.6
– Net Position:65,722-75,4289,706
– Gross Longs:214,557141,86240,500
– Gross Shorts:148,835217,29030,794
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.825.5-5.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.638.316.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.842.610.7
– Net Position:-1,640-5,6297,269
– Gross Longs:52,32350,66121,383
– Gross Shorts:53,96356,29014,114
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.389.94.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.07.5-16.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.750.78.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.136.59.9
– Net Position:-20,28623,215-2,929
– Gross Longs:46,77382,69313,179
– Gross Shorts:67,05959,47816,108
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.781.68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.4-3.3-21.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.138.611.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.347.36.9
– Net Position:2,390-5,4963,106
– Gross Longs:27,75624,2817,432
– Gross Shorts:25,36629,7774,326
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.389.15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-1.8-1.4

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.959.915.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.938.918.5
– Net Position:-1,0811,261-180
– Gross Longs:1,3713,592930
– Gross Shorts:2,4522,3311,110
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.881.833.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.0-4.4-6.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions
19 Sep

Investors Don’t Believe in Gold

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold continues falling – by Monday 19 September, it has reached $1,664. Earlier, it rebounded from the resistance level at $1,680 to indicate how strong the bearish pressure still is. This week, investors are expecting another aggressive rate hike from the US FOMC to continue its fight against growing inflation. Market players believe that it will be a 75-point hike, but if the regulator raises the rate by 1%, it might force Gold to continue plummeting.

Despite the fact that Gold usually acts as a “safe haven” asset” when inflation rises, high interest rates increase expenditures to store physical Gold. At the same time, increasing economic risks do not inspire market players to buy such “safe haven” assets, making the USD a more preferable investment.

Since mid-2020, Gold has been stuck inside a sideways channel between $2,065 and $1,680. If bears succeed to keep the metal at the current levels (and there are no fundamental reasons that might hint at a possible reversal so far), Gold might plummet to $1,300 in the long-term.

As we can see in the H4 chart, after rebounding from 1730.00, XAU/USD is forming another descending wave towards 1646.00. Later, the market may start a new growth with the target at 1727.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 outside the histogram area. In the future, the line may reverse and grow towards 0.

In the H1 chart, Gold continues trading downwards with the short-term target at 1650.00. Later, the market may grow towards 1690.00 and then resume falling to reach 1646.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal is moving below 20 and may soon grow towards 50. After that, the line may resume falling to return to 20.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
17 Sep

Weekly COT Metals Speculator bets led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market having decreasing contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Silver (8,144 contracts) with Copper (5,004 contracts), Platinum (4,872 contracts) and Palladium (329 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold with a decline of -6,513 contracts the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week was Silver’s gain that stopped a streak of three straight weeks of declines. Silver speculator positions had fallen by a total of -16,292 contracts in the past three weeks to drop to the most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver price has been showing resilience between the $18 to $20 range over the past twelve weeks and closed this week over the $19.30 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,498,0593227,0574-244,0079816,95028
Gold463,674397,3442-110,9389913,5949
Silver135,5303-4,6409-2,551937,1914
Copper157,9000-18,9862320,51280-1,52616
Palladium6,0851-1,273161,45583-18233
Platinum68,57436-1,8797-2,051933,93017
Natural Gas977,1164-145,71535110,7946634,92163
Brent164,41512-39,0234634,919514,10465
Heating Oil290,9163116,06466-31,3533815,28951
Soybeans643,0181592,11042-61,42468-30,68619
Corn1,310,4116294,56968-234,17939-60,3908
Coffee197,6571042,26775-44,360292,09319
Sugar751,873968,33051-79,4265311,09622
Wheat287,0460-8,128812,97778-4,84985

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (22.7 percent) leads the metals markets and is just out of a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

On the downside, all the other markets are currently below 20 percent and in bearish extreme positions. Gold (1.8 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level and near the bottom of it 3-Year range. Platinum (6.6 percent), Silver (9.0 percent) and Palladium (15.7 percent) are the next lowest markets.


Strength Statistics:
Gold (1.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.0 percent)
Copper (22.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.8 percent)
Platinum (6.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.0 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.8 percent)

Strength Trends led by Palladium and Copper

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (6.6 percent) and Platinum (0.9 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-10.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by Silver with a -6.2 percent trend score.


Move Statistics:
Gold (-10.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (-6.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.1 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.0 percent)
Platinum (0.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.1 percent)
Palladium (7.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 97,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.727.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.751.35.8
– Net Position:97,344-110,93813,594
– Gross Longs:225,932126,95040,556
– Gross Shorts:128,588237,88826,962
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.899.19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.38.96.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.438.216.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.840.110.8
– Net Position:-4,640-2,5517,191
– Gross Longs:53,37351,82221,808
– Gross Shorts:58,01354,37314,617
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.092.83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.26.2-4.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.249.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.336.89.7
– Net Position:-18,98620,512-1,526
– Gross Longs:44,57478,68213,738
– Gross Shorts:63,56058,17015,264
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.779.616.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-5.3-7.3

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.638.611.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.341.65.3
– Net Position:-1,879-2,0513,930
– Gross Longs:30,55226,4737,567
– Gross Shorts:32,43128,5243,637
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.693.416.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-0.4-4.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.761.115.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.637.217.9
– Net Position:-1,2731,455-182
– Gross Longs:1,3823,720910
– Gross Shorts:2,6552,2651,092
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.782.933.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-7.20.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions
15 Sep

Why is gold back below $1700?

By ForexTime

Spot gold is currently trading below the psychologically-important $1700 level, and is on course towards revisiting the lows seen in mid-June.

 

Here are more data points that make for gloomy reading for gold bulls (those hoping that gold prices will climb):

  • Gold has fallen by 7.8% so far this year
  • Gold has suffered 5 straight months of declines (April – August), its longest monthly losing streak since 2018
  • Bullion-backed ETFs have lowered their gold holdings for a 13th consecutive day (i.e. investors are ditching gold)

So why has gold performed so poorly so far in 2022?

It’s all down to the Federal Reserve.

And here’s a quick summary of what you’re about to read:

More Fed rate hikes = stronger US dollar / higher US Treasury yields = lower gold

To better understand the forces that are driving gold prices lower, read on.

Why is the Fed raising interest rates?

The US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates as the central bank’s main policy weapon against stubbornly persistent inflation.

The August consumer price index (used to measure the headline inflation rate) released earlier this week showed a higher-than-expected 8.3% growth.

While that 8.3% number is lower than June’s 9.1% CPI, it’s still about 4 times higher than the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

In other words, inflation is still stubbornly high despite the Fed having already hiked rates by 225 basis points since March, and counting, to try and bring that inflation down.

The inflation data suggests that the Fed has to hike rates even higher:

  • Markets are forecasting a 25% chance of a 100 basis point hike at its FOMC policy meeting next week.
    If such a gargantuan move happens, that 100bps move would be 4 times bigger than the usual 25bps adjustments per policy meeting typically employed by major central bankers, at least over the past few decades.
  • Markets currently expect US interest rates to peak at around 4.4%, from the current 2.5%, excluding next week’s expected hike.
    That’s a major shift compared to expectations as of just last week, when markets expect US rates to peak at 4%.
    With these updated expectations, that suggests another 190 basis points more that US interest rates could climb.

How do Fed rate hikes influence gold prices?

Here’s a oversimplified narrative for how the above works:

  1. Fed sends US interest rates higher, investors then ditch US Treasuries, pushing Treasury prices lower.
  2. As US Treasury prices fall, their yields go up (investors get paid a higher interest from holding on to those US government bonds).
  3. When US Treasury yields go up, they eventually become more attractive to foreign investors.
  4. These investors then buy up the US dollar, so they can purchase more US assets.

But when the US dollar/yields climb, gold becomes less appealing because of these two features for the precious metal:

  1. Gold is a zero-yielding asset.
    Investors do not get paid any income for holding on to gold.

    Hence, when investors are promised higher yields on US Treasuries, they tend to favor lending their money to the US government in return for those higher interest payments, as opposed to parking their money in gold which does not pay interest.

  2. Also, gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar.
    When the dollar goes up, gold typically goes down, and vice versa.

    This is because, when foreign investors need to use more of their currency to buy the more-expensive US dollar in order to purchase gold (the precious metal’s benchmark price is denominated in US dollars), those expensive price tags then make gold less appealing.

    ECONS 101: Demand falls when prices go up.

 

Here’s a chart showing how much the US dollar has risen this year, as measures by the DXY (the benchmark index used to measure the US dollar’s overall performance against its G10 peers) which is now at its highest levels since 2002.

READ MORE:

 

So where to next for gold?

At least gold bulls can take heart from the price action since mid-2020, whereby forays below $1700 have proved short-lived.

As you can see on the weekly chart below, quite a few notable support levels can be seen in a wide range between $1660.03 – $1685.15.

Gold’s 200-week simple moving average (SMA) also hovers in this region ($1676 at the time of writing). This major technical indicator potentially offering support as well.

In other words, gold may not have that much further to fall, provided these support levels close by do hold up.

 

However, once you strip away the wild price swings at the onset of the global pandemic, there appears to be little by way of major support before hurtling down to sub-$1600 levels.

Alternatively, one could employ the price action from back in the 2011-2013 period to draw support levels.

Though bear in mind, support levels from a decade ago are less relevant to today’s markets, given the substantially different market and macroeconomic environment that we currently find ourselves (e.g. US inflation being at its highest in over 40 years).

 

Overall, gold’s safe haven status has clearly been eroded by the Fed’s ongoing rate-hiking cycle.

Despite the still-raging war in the Ukraine, along with rising fears of a looming global recession, the precious metal’s traditional role as a way to preserve investors’ wealth has been found lacking, in light of the downward pressures stemming from rising US yields and the dollar.

 

Ultimately, gold’s immediate fortunes will likely depend on how high markets expect the Fed to send interest rates.

As things stand, markets are forecasting that US interest rates will peak at 4.4% by March, from the 2.5% currently (before next week’s highly-anticipated FOMC rate decision).

If markets believe that the Fed has to send interest rates even higher past 4.4% in order to subdue the inflation beast, that should heap more downward pressure on gold prices.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
11 Sep

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro 

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculator positioning was lower across the board. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes are lower led by Gold & Silver

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets recorded lower contracts.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-13,877 contracts) with Silver (-4,513 contracts), Platinum (-1,373 contracts), Copper (-735 contracts) and Palladium (-473 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals changes this week is the continued decline in the Gold speculator positions. Gold speculative bets have declined for four straight weeks and by a total of -38,994 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has brought the overall Gold speculator standing (currently at +103,857 contracts) to the lowest level in six weeks, dating back to July 26th. The average speculator position over 2022 has been a total of +185,566 contracts and compared to this week’s position, illustrates the weakness in speculator sentiment for Gold. The futures price is currently in a downtrend after hitting a high over $2,078 in March of this year and closed this week at $1,728.

The Silver speculative positioning has continued to fall lower. The Silver speculator bets have declined for three straight weeks and have now been in a bearish position for three straight weeks as well. The overall speculator standing is currently at -12,784 contracts which is the lowest or most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver futures price has dipped below $18 in recent weeks but has found consistent support at that level. This week the Silver price closed higher for the week at $18.75 following three straight weeks of decline.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,480,3201214,4781-240,4179925,93943
Gold465,9084103,8574-114,0649810,2070
Silver138,3005-12,78405,0551007,7296
Copper160,2512-23,9901926,82084-2,8309
Palladium6,0651-1,602142,12987-52713
Platinum78,61053-6,75103,1521003,59912
Natural Gas984,6425-138,63837105,8026432,83658
Brent163,66611-36,3885032,508473,88062
Heating Oil280,2102717,86069-36,0893318,22962
Soybeans606,187781,25138-50,82671-30,42520
Corn1,280,0872286,54767-230,70239-55,84511
Coffee193,938747,16880-49,276252,10819
Sugar760,6011157,77149-61,944564,17313
Wheat289,3290-9,759613,67779-3,91890

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that all the metals markets are currently in bearish extreme scores under 20 percent. Copper (18.8 percent) is at the highest level of the metals currently followed by Palladium (13.8 percent) and Gold (4.3 percent). Silver (0.0 percent) and Platinum (0.0 percent) are currently at the bottom of their 3-year ranges of strength scores.

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

Strength Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.6 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.0 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (0.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.8 percent)
Palladium (13.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (10.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Gold (4.3 percent) and Copper (2.0 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-9.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Platinum at -3.1 percent.

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.7 percent)
Silver (-9.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.6 percent)
Copper (2.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.5 percent)
Platinum (-3.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.5 percent)
Palladium (10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 103,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.727.88.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.452.36.1
– Net Position:103,857-114,06410,207
– Gross Longs:231,527129,68338,798
– Gross Shorts:127,670243,74728,591
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.398.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-2.0-14.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.440.416.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.636.710.8
– Net Position:-12,7845,0557,729
– Gross Longs:51,71455,82322,687
– Gross Shorts:64,49850,76814,958
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.06.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.17.32.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.151.27.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.034.59.6
– Net Position:-23,99026,820-2,830
– Gross Longs:46,58182,03812,521
– Gross Shorts:70,57155,21815,351
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.884.38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.0-0.0-14.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.738.710.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.334.75.6
– Net Position:-6,7513,1523,599
– Gross Longs:33,59830,4518,025
– Gross Shorts:40,34927,2994,426
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.012.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.14.2-14.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.262.914.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.627.822.9
– Net Position:-1,6022,129-527
– Gross Longs:1,3443,814863
– Gross Shorts:2,9461,6851,390
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.886.713.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-9.9-2.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions
08 Sep

As expected: USDJPY, GBPUSD, gold hit key targets

By ForexTime

There’s been a lot of major movements across currency markets of late, as the US dollar’s scorched-earth ascent to a fresh 20-year high leaves its major peers lying in a heap.

And some of our recent Market Analysis report had served as a prelude to these major FX moves.

In case you missed it, let’s revisit some of them:

1) Sept 1st article: “How does the US Dollar typically fare in September?”

This time last week, I wrote:

“The US dollar is expected to register further gains in September 2022, even as DXY now trades around its highest levels in 20 years.”

Sure enough, the benchmark dollar index duly delivered with a higher high, posting a fresh peak since 2002.

To be clear, the DXY has moderated back below the psychologically-important 110 mark at the time of writing, and has returned to around last Thursday’s highs. It appears that the DXY is now seeing a pullback from “overbought” conditions, with its 14-day relative strength index moving back below the 70 threshold.

 

Even the equally-weighted USD index has printed a higher high since, trading around levels not seen since the early months of the global pandemic back in 2020.

 

In that same September 1st article, we also highlighted some of the world’s top-traded major currency pairs and key levels to look out for this month:

  • EURUSD: 59% chance of hitting 0.985
  • USDJPY: 70% chance of reaching 141.0
  • GBPUSD: 87% chance of touching 1.15

 

Suffice to say, those levels for USDJPY and GBPUSD have been resoundingly breached, arriving much sooner in September than anticipated, thanks (or no thanks) to the US dollar’s resilient climb.

 

USDJPY is now trading around levels not seen since 1998 …

 

… while GBPUSD is making a throwback to 1985, back when Margaret Thatcher was UK Prime Minister.

 

 

EURUSD: oh, so close …

EURUSD came within a whisker of the 0.985 level earmarked for the entirety of September, as mentioned in last Thursday’s (Sept 1st) article.

The day after, we published our latest Week Ahead article (our regular feature on Fridays):

2) Sept 2nd article: Week Ahead – ECB may surprise markets

in which I wrote:

“EURUSD could fall to as low as 0.986 in the coming week.”

 

To be fair, this past Tuesday, EURUSD came within a whisker of those levels.

Still, one can’t yet rule out such a move, especially with EURUSD struggling to stay around the parity mark as we count down to the European Central Bank’s policy decision due very soon.

 

Now, back to the US dollar wrecking havoc across major asset classes …

even dollar-denominated commodities have not been spared.

 

3) Aug 29th article: Trade of the Week – Gold to retest $1700 support?

Gold has been testing the psychologically-important $1700 support level over the past week, as suggested in the title of our August 29th Trade of the Week article.

And here’s what we wrote a couple of weeks ago:

“$1700: stronger support should arrive at this psychologically-important line, noting that previous dips below $1700 have proved short-lived in recent years.”

And gold’s performance since that Trade of the Week article (published every Monday) has indeed mimicked the price action from recent years, whereby dips below $1700 have proven short lived.

 

And that’s just a short recap of what’s transpired with these popular assets of late.

There’s bound to be more volatility and excitement across global financial markets before 2022 is over.

So keep checking back with our Daily Market Analysis as we help you keep pace with various instruments along the way,

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News Metals
03 Sep

Gold, Platinum and Copper Speculators lead Weekly Precious Metals Bets lower

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Metals Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold, Platinum and Copper lead the Weekly Speculator Changes Lower

Metals Futures Large Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the way for the precious metals markets this week was Palladium with a gain of 665 contracts.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-8,113 contracts) with Platinum (-4,802 contracts), Copper (-4,265 contracts) and Silver (-3,771 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-30-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,470,2070229,1895-256,2489527,05948
Gold459,1652117,73410-129,6799211,9452
Silver138,7146-8,27102651008,0068
Copper158,3900-23,2551924,98583-1,73015
Palladium5,8750-1,129161,32382-19433
Platinum70,74740-5,3781646994,73228
Natural Gas978,8814-128,7654092,4636036,30266
Brent180,95224-40,0134436,585543,42856
Heating Oil283,4272925,19679-43,7612518,56563
Soybeans605,924783,56240-52,79168-30,77119
Corn1,267,7350283,39766-225,75940-57,63810
Coffee193,889748,68781-50,983232,29621
Sugar752,642962,55149-72,5935410,04220
Wheat288,5450-11,499414,91481-3,41593

 

All Metals Strength Scores are in Bearish Extreme Levels

Metals Speculator Strength Score (3-YR Range)

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that all the metals markets continue to have very weak speculator sentiment. All markets currently have bearish extreme strength scores under 20 percent. Copper (19.4 percent) is the highest and is followed by Palladium (16.5 percent) and Gold (9.6 percent). Silver (0.0 percent) is at the absolute bottom of its 3-Year range followed by Platinum (0.7 percent) which is not far away.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.7 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (4.4 percent)
Copper (19.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.7 percent)
Platinum (0.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.3 percent)
Palladium (16.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Metals Speculator Strength Trend (6-Weeks)

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Palladium (14.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (8.7 percent) and Copper (0.5 percent) round out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-11.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next market with a lower trend score was Platinum (-1.5 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.0 percent)
Silver (-11.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.9 percent)
Copper (0.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.7 percent)
Platinum (-1.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.3 percent)
Palladium (14.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.227.68.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.655.85.9
– Net Position:117,734-129,67911,945
– Gross Longs:235,314126,53538,918
– Gross Shorts:117,580256,21426,973
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.692.31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-6.3-14.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.742.216.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.642.010.6
– Net Position:-8,2712658,006
– Gross Longs:49,46858,59222,715
– Gross Shorts:57,73958,32714,709
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.07.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.28.45.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.151.88.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.836.09.5
– Net Position:-23,25524,985-1,730
– Gross Longs:46,10582,02313,256
– Gross Shorts:69,36057,03814,986
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.482.915.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.50.9-10.5

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.938.912.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.538.05.4
– Net Position:-5,3786464,732
– Gross Longs:29,63527,5018,556
– Gross Shorts:35,01326,8553,824
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.799.228.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.51.22.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.259.115.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.536.619.2
– Net Position:-1,1291,323-194
– Gross Longs:1,4243,475932
– Gross Shorts:2,5532,1521,126
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.582.232.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-16.620.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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