Archive for Metals – Page 37

17 Sep

Weekly COT Metals Speculator bets led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market having decreasing contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Silver (8,144 contracts) with Copper (5,004 contracts), Platinum (4,872 contracts) and Palladium (329 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold with a decline of -6,513 contracts the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week was Silver’s gain that stopped a streak of three straight weeks of declines. Silver speculator positions had fallen by a total of -16,292 contracts in the past three weeks to drop to the most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver price has been showing resilience between the $18 to $20 range over the past twelve weeks and closed this week over the $19.30 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,498,0593227,0574-244,0079816,95028
Gold463,674397,3442-110,9389913,5949
Silver135,5303-4,6409-2,551937,1914
Copper157,9000-18,9862320,51280-1,52616
Palladium6,0851-1,273161,45583-18233
Platinum68,57436-1,8797-2,051933,93017
Natural Gas977,1164-145,71535110,7946634,92163
Brent164,41512-39,0234634,919514,10465
Heating Oil290,9163116,06466-31,3533815,28951
Soybeans643,0181592,11042-61,42468-30,68619
Corn1,310,4116294,56968-234,17939-60,3908
Coffee197,6571042,26775-44,360292,09319
Sugar751,873968,33051-79,4265311,09622
Wheat287,0460-8,128812,97778-4,84985

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (22.7 percent) leads the metals markets and is just out of a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

On the downside, all the other markets are currently below 20 percent and in bearish extreme positions. Gold (1.8 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level and near the bottom of it 3-Year range. Platinum (6.6 percent), Silver (9.0 percent) and Palladium (15.7 percent) are the next lowest markets.


Strength Statistics:
Gold (1.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.0 percent)
Copper (22.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.8 percent)
Platinum (6.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.0 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.8 percent)

Strength Trends led by Palladium and Copper

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (6.6 percent) and Platinum (0.9 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-10.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by Silver with a -6.2 percent trend score.


Move Statistics:
Gold (-10.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (-6.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.1 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.0 percent)
Platinum (0.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.1 percent)
Palladium (7.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 97,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.727.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.751.35.8
– Net Position:97,344-110,93813,594
– Gross Longs:225,932126,95040,556
– Gross Shorts:128,588237,88826,962
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.899.19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.38.96.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.438.216.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.840.110.8
– Net Position:-4,640-2,5517,191
– Gross Longs:53,37351,82221,808
– Gross Shorts:58,01354,37314,617
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.092.83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.26.2-4.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.249.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.336.89.7
– Net Position:-18,98620,512-1,526
– Gross Longs:44,57478,68213,738
– Gross Shorts:63,56058,17015,264
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.779.616.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-5.3-7.3

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.638.611.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.341.65.3
– Net Position:-1,879-2,0513,930
– Gross Longs:30,55226,4737,567
– Gross Shorts:32,43128,5243,637
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.693.416.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-0.4-4.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.761.115.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.637.217.9
– Net Position:-1,2731,455-182
– Gross Longs:1,3823,720910
– Gross Shorts:2,6552,2651,092
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.782.933.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-7.20.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions
15 Sep

Why is gold back below $1700?

By ForexTime

Spot gold is currently trading below the psychologically-important $1700 level, and is on course towards revisiting the lows seen in mid-June.

 

Here are more data points that make for gloomy reading for gold bulls (those hoping that gold prices will climb):

  • Gold has fallen by 7.8% so far this year
  • Gold has suffered 5 straight months of declines (April – August), its longest monthly losing streak since 2018
  • Bullion-backed ETFs have lowered their gold holdings for a 13th consecutive day (i.e. investors are ditching gold)

So why has gold performed so poorly so far in 2022?

It’s all down to the Federal Reserve.

And here’s a quick summary of what you’re about to read:

More Fed rate hikes = stronger US dollar / higher US Treasury yields = lower gold

To better understand the forces that are driving gold prices lower, read on.

Why is the Fed raising interest rates?

The US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates as the central bank’s main policy weapon against stubbornly persistent inflation.

The August consumer price index (used to measure the headline inflation rate) released earlier this week showed a higher-than-expected 8.3% growth.

While that 8.3% number is lower than June’s 9.1% CPI, it’s still about 4 times higher than the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

In other words, inflation is still stubbornly high despite the Fed having already hiked rates by 225 basis points since March, and counting, to try and bring that inflation down.

The inflation data suggests that the Fed has to hike rates even higher:

  • Markets are forecasting a 25% chance of a 100 basis point hike at its FOMC policy meeting next week.
    If such a gargantuan move happens, that 100bps move would be 4 times bigger than the usual 25bps adjustments per policy meeting typically employed by major central bankers, at least over the past few decades.
  • Markets currently expect US interest rates to peak at around 4.4%, from the current 2.5%, excluding next week’s expected hike.
    That’s a major shift compared to expectations as of just last week, when markets expect US rates to peak at 4%.
    With these updated expectations, that suggests another 190 basis points more that US interest rates could climb.

How do Fed rate hikes influence gold prices?

Here’s a oversimplified narrative for how the above works:

  1. Fed sends US interest rates higher, investors then ditch US Treasuries, pushing Treasury prices lower.
  2. As US Treasury prices fall, their yields go up (investors get paid a higher interest from holding on to those US government bonds).
  3. When US Treasury yields go up, they eventually become more attractive to foreign investors.
  4. These investors then buy up the US dollar, so they can purchase more US assets.

But when the US dollar/yields climb, gold becomes less appealing because of these two features for the precious metal:

  1. Gold is a zero-yielding asset.
    Investors do not get paid any income for holding on to gold.

    Hence, when investors are promised higher yields on US Treasuries, they tend to favor lending their money to the US government in return for those higher interest payments, as opposed to parking their money in gold which does not pay interest.

  2. Also, gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar.
    When the dollar goes up, gold typically goes down, and vice versa.

    This is because, when foreign investors need to use more of their currency to buy the more-expensive US dollar in order to purchase gold (the precious metal’s benchmark price is denominated in US dollars), those expensive price tags then make gold less appealing.

    ECONS 101: Demand falls when prices go up.

 

Here’s a chart showing how much the US dollar has risen this year, as measures by the DXY (the benchmark index used to measure the US dollar’s overall performance against its G10 peers) which is now at its highest levels since 2002.

READ MORE:

 

So where to next for gold?

At least gold bulls can take heart from the price action since mid-2020, whereby forays below $1700 have proved short-lived.

As you can see on the weekly chart below, quite a few notable support levels can be seen in a wide range between $1660.03 – $1685.15.

Gold’s 200-week simple moving average (SMA) also hovers in this region ($1676 at the time of writing). This major technical indicator potentially offering support as well.

In other words, gold may not have that much further to fall, provided these support levels close by do hold up.

 

However, once you strip away the wild price swings at the onset of the global pandemic, there appears to be little by way of major support before hurtling down to sub-$1600 levels.

Alternatively, one could employ the price action from back in the 2011-2013 period to draw support levels.

Though bear in mind, support levels from a decade ago are less relevant to today’s markets, given the substantially different market and macroeconomic environment that we currently find ourselves (e.g. US inflation being at its highest in over 40 years).

 

Overall, gold’s safe haven status has clearly been eroded by the Fed’s ongoing rate-hiking cycle.

Despite the still-raging war in the Ukraine, along with rising fears of a looming global recession, the precious metal’s traditional role as a way to preserve investors’ wealth has been found lacking, in light of the downward pressures stemming from rising US yields and the dollar.

 

Ultimately, gold’s immediate fortunes will likely depend on how high markets expect the Fed to send interest rates.

As things stand, markets are forecasting that US interest rates will peak at 4.4% by March, from the 2.5% currently (before next week’s highly-anticipated FOMC rate decision).

If markets believe that the Fed has to send interest rates even higher past 4.4% in order to subdue the inflation beast, that should heap more downward pressure on gold prices.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
11 Sep

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro 

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculator positioning was lower across the board. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes are lower led by Gold & Silver

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets recorded lower contracts.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-13,877 contracts) with Silver (-4,513 contracts), Platinum (-1,373 contracts), Copper (-735 contracts) and Palladium (-473 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals changes this week is the continued decline in the Gold speculator positions. Gold speculative bets have declined for four straight weeks and by a total of -38,994 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has brought the overall Gold speculator standing (currently at +103,857 contracts) to the lowest level in six weeks, dating back to July 26th. The average speculator position over 2022 has been a total of +185,566 contracts and compared to this week’s position, illustrates the weakness in speculator sentiment for Gold. The futures price is currently in a downtrend after hitting a high over $2,078 in March of this year and closed this week at $1,728.

The Silver speculative positioning has continued to fall lower. The Silver speculator bets have declined for three straight weeks and have now been in a bearish position for three straight weeks as well. The overall speculator standing is currently at -12,784 contracts which is the lowest or most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver futures price has dipped below $18 in recent weeks but has found consistent support at that level. This week the Silver price closed higher for the week at $18.75 following three straight weeks of decline.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,480,3201214,4781-240,4179925,93943
Gold465,9084103,8574-114,0649810,2070
Silver138,3005-12,78405,0551007,7296
Copper160,2512-23,9901926,82084-2,8309
Palladium6,0651-1,602142,12987-52713
Platinum78,61053-6,75103,1521003,59912
Natural Gas984,6425-138,63837105,8026432,83658
Brent163,66611-36,3885032,508473,88062
Heating Oil280,2102717,86069-36,0893318,22962
Soybeans606,187781,25138-50,82671-30,42520
Corn1,280,0872286,54767-230,70239-55,84511
Coffee193,938747,16880-49,276252,10819
Sugar760,6011157,77149-61,944564,17313
Wheat289,3290-9,759613,67779-3,91890

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that all the metals markets are currently in bearish extreme scores under 20 percent. Copper (18.8 percent) is at the highest level of the metals currently followed by Palladium (13.8 percent) and Gold (4.3 percent). Silver (0.0 percent) and Platinum (0.0 percent) are currently at the bottom of their 3-year ranges of strength scores.

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

Strength Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.6 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.0 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (0.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.8 percent)
Palladium (13.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (10.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Gold (4.3 percent) and Copper (2.0 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-9.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Platinum at -3.1 percent.

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.7 percent)
Silver (-9.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.6 percent)
Copper (2.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.5 percent)
Platinum (-3.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.5 percent)
Palladium (10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 103,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.727.88.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.452.36.1
– Net Position:103,857-114,06410,207
– Gross Longs:231,527129,68338,798
– Gross Shorts:127,670243,74728,591
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.398.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-2.0-14.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.440.416.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.636.710.8
– Net Position:-12,7845,0557,729
– Gross Longs:51,71455,82322,687
– Gross Shorts:64,49850,76814,958
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.06.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.17.32.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.151.27.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.034.59.6
– Net Position:-23,99026,820-2,830
– Gross Longs:46,58182,03812,521
– Gross Shorts:70,57155,21815,351
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.884.38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.0-0.0-14.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.738.710.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.334.75.6
– Net Position:-6,7513,1523,599
– Gross Longs:33,59830,4518,025
– Gross Shorts:40,34927,2994,426
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.012.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.14.2-14.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.262.914.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.627.822.9
– Net Position:-1,6022,129-527
– Gross Longs:1,3443,814863
– Gross Shorts:2,9461,6851,390
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.886.713.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-9.9-2.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions
08 Sep

As expected: USDJPY, GBPUSD, gold hit key targets

By ForexTime

There’s been a lot of major movements across currency markets of late, as the US dollar’s scorched-earth ascent to a fresh 20-year high leaves its major peers lying in a heap.

And some of our recent Market Analysis report had served as a prelude to these major FX moves.

In case you missed it, let’s revisit some of them:

1) Sept 1st article: “How does the US Dollar typically fare in September?”

This time last week, I wrote:

“The US dollar is expected to register further gains in September 2022, even as DXY now trades around its highest levels in 20 years.”

Sure enough, the benchmark dollar index duly delivered with a higher high, posting a fresh peak since 2002.

To be clear, the DXY has moderated back below the psychologically-important 110 mark at the time of writing, and has returned to around last Thursday’s highs. It appears that the DXY is now seeing a pullback from “overbought” conditions, with its 14-day relative strength index moving back below the 70 threshold.

 

Even the equally-weighted USD index has printed a higher high since, trading around levels not seen since the early months of the global pandemic back in 2020.

 

In that same September 1st article, we also highlighted some of the world’s top-traded major currency pairs and key levels to look out for this month:

  • EURUSD: 59% chance of hitting 0.985
  • USDJPY: 70% chance of reaching 141.0
  • GBPUSD: 87% chance of touching 1.15

 

Suffice to say, those levels for USDJPY and GBPUSD have been resoundingly breached, arriving much sooner in September than anticipated, thanks (or no thanks) to the US dollar’s resilient climb.

 

USDJPY is now trading around levels not seen since 1998 …

 

… while GBPUSD is making a throwback to 1985, back when Margaret Thatcher was UK Prime Minister.

 

 

EURUSD: oh, so close …

EURUSD came within a whisker of the 0.985 level earmarked for the entirety of September, as mentioned in last Thursday’s (Sept 1st) article.

The day after, we published our latest Week Ahead article (our regular feature on Fridays):

2) Sept 2nd article: Week Ahead – ECB may surprise markets

in which I wrote:

“EURUSD could fall to as low as 0.986 in the coming week.”

 

To be fair, this past Tuesday, EURUSD came within a whisker of those levels.

Still, one can’t yet rule out such a move, especially with EURUSD struggling to stay around the parity mark as we count down to the European Central Bank’s policy decision due very soon.

 

Now, back to the US dollar wrecking havoc across major asset classes …

even dollar-denominated commodities have not been spared.

 

3) Aug 29th article: Trade of the Week – Gold to retest $1700 support?

Gold has been testing the psychologically-important $1700 support level over the past week, as suggested in the title of our August 29th Trade of the Week article.

And here’s what we wrote a couple of weeks ago:

“$1700: stronger support should arrive at this psychologically-important line, noting that previous dips below $1700 have proved short-lived in recent years.”

And gold’s performance since that Trade of the Week article (published every Monday) has indeed mimicked the price action from recent years, whereby dips below $1700 have proven short lived.

 

And that’s just a short recap of what’s transpired with these popular assets of late.

There’s bound to be more volatility and excitement across global financial markets before 2022 is over.

So keep checking back with our Daily Market Analysis as we help you keep pace with various instruments along the way,

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News Metals
03 Sep

Gold, Platinum and Copper Speculators lead Weekly Precious Metals Bets lower

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Metals Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold, Platinum and Copper lead the Weekly Speculator Changes Lower

Metals Futures Large Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the way for the precious metals markets this week was Palladium with a gain of 665 contracts.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-8,113 contracts) with Platinum (-4,802 contracts), Copper (-4,265 contracts) and Silver (-3,771 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-30-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,470,2070229,1895-256,2489527,05948
Gold459,1652117,73410-129,6799211,9452
Silver138,7146-8,27102651008,0068
Copper158,3900-23,2551924,98583-1,73015
Palladium5,8750-1,129161,32382-19433
Platinum70,74740-5,3781646994,73228
Natural Gas978,8814-128,7654092,4636036,30266
Brent180,95224-40,0134436,585543,42856
Heating Oil283,4272925,19679-43,7612518,56563
Soybeans605,924783,56240-52,79168-30,77119
Corn1,267,7350283,39766-225,75940-57,63810
Coffee193,889748,68781-50,983232,29621
Sugar752,642962,55149-72,5935410,04220
Wheat288,5450-11,499414,91481-3,41593

 

All Metals Strength Scores are in Bearish Extreme Levels

Metals Speculator Strength Score (3-YR Range)

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that all the metals markets continue to have very weak speculator sentiment. All markets currently have bearish extreme strength scores under 20 percent. Copper (19.4 percent) is the highest and is followed by Palladium (16.5 percent) and Gold (9.6 percent). Silver (0.0 percent) is at the absolute bottom of its 3-Year range followed by Platinum (0.7 percent) which is not far away.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.7 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (4.4 percent)
Copper (19.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.7 percent)
Platinum (0.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.3 percent)
Palladium (16.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Metals Speculator Strength Trend (6-Weeks)

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Palladium (14.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (8.7 percent) and Copper (0.5 percent) round out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-11.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next market with a lower trend score was Platinum (-1.5 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.0 percent)
Silver (-11.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.9 percent)
Copper (0.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.7 percent)
Platinum (-1.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.3 percent)
Palladium (14.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.227.68.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.655.85.9
– Net Position:117,734-129,67911,945
– Gross Longs:235,314126,53538,918
– Gross Shorts:117,580256,21426,973
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.692.31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-6.3-14.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.742.216.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.642.010.6
– Net Position:-8,2712658,006
– Gross Longs:49,46858,59222,715
– Gross Shorts:57,73958,32714,709
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.07.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.28.45.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.151.88.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.836.09.5
– Net Position:-23,25524,985-1,730
– Gross Longs:46,10582,02313,256
– Gross Shorts:69,36057,03814,986
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.482.915.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.50.9-10.5

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.938.912.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.538.05.4
– Net Position:-5,3786464,732
– Gross Longs:29,63527,5018,556
– Gross Shorts:35,01326,8553,824
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.799.228.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.51.22.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.259.115.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.536.619.2
– Net Position:-1,1291,323-194
– Gross Longs:1,4243,475932
– Gross Shorts:2,5532,1521,126
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.582.232.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-16.620.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Metals
29 Aug

Trade of the Week: Gold to retest $1700 support?

By ForexTime 

At the start of this new trading week, spot gold has been dragged down to closer to the $1700 mark, although prices have trimmed losses at the time of writing.

 

And depending on how this Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report turns out, the precious metal could retest that psychologically-important level for support.

 

Why has gold tumbled again?

The precious metal is clearly wilting in the wake of the scorching US dollar and the uptrend in Treasury yields.

These moves (gold down, dollar/Treasury yields up) have been fuelled by revived bets that US interest rates will move higher, and more importantly – stay elevated, for longer.

 

Markets have been gripped by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech delivered at Jackson Hole this past Friday.

Here are the key takeaways:

  1. The Fed is set to persist with sending US interest rates higher.
  2. US interest rates are set to stay higher “for some time” (as in, the Fed isn’t likely to unwind its rate hikes in a hurry, as some segments of the markets had predicted up until recently).

In essence, the US central bank remains committed to subduing in inflationary pressures, even if it results in some pain for the economy.

Such language heralds a stronger US dollar and Treasury yields marching higher: a bad mix for bullion bulls.

 

What does the upcoming US jobs report have to do with gold prices?

Depending on the demonstrated strength of the US jobs market, that would inform the Fed as to how high it could send US interest rates.

  • A still-resilient US labour market would essentially give the green light for the Fed to send its benchmark rates even higher.
    In turn, that should heap more downward pressure on gold.
  • Signs that the US labour market is starting to creak under the weight of higher interest rates may force the Fed to adopt a more gradual approach with its rate hikes; thus spelling some relief for gold.

 

What to look out for in this Friday’s US jobs report?

As things stand, markets are forecasting the following:

  • US labour market added a further 300,000 jobs in August, judging by the headline US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) figure. If so, that would mark a 20th consecutive month of job gains.

    However, an official print of 300k would also mark its lowest number of jobs added since December 2019.

  • The August unemployment rate would stay at 3.5% – at its pre-pandemic lows.

Overall, the US jobs market is expected to remain resilient, even though the Fed has been hiking interest rates since March.

 

How might gold react to the upcoming NFP?

  1. If the US labour market adds more jobs than forecasted, that could lead to more declines in gold prices.

Potential support levels:

  • $1712: using the downward trendline that has gone from resistance to support level.
  • $1700: stronger support should arrive at this psychologically-important line, noting that previous dips below $1700 have proved short-lived in recent years.

Such declines would be based on the notion that still-robust hiring in the US is likely to give the green light to the Fed to continue sending interest rates higher, which in turn should heap more downward pressure on gold prices.

 

  1. However, if the US jobs market is starting to creak, that could force the Fed to adopt a more ‘gradual’ approach with its rate hikes.

That is to say policymakers may be more comfortable with triggering rate hikes that are relatively smaller than the 75bps hikes it has already triggered at each of its past two policy meetings. Smaller rate hikes may then be the way forward for policymakers, if they begin to fear choking the US jobs market and sending the US economy into a deep recession.

Such a narrative could then prompt a short-term rebound in spot gold.

Potential resistance levels:

  • $1764: around 50-day simple moving average (SMA)
  • $1800: stronger resistance set to arrive at psychologically-important mark

 

In summary:

Markets are currently forecasting a slightly higher chance (21.5%) of spot gold touching $1700, rather than prices reaching its 50-day SMA (20.8%) around $1764.

Ultimately, it could all come down to whether or not this Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls reports exceeds market expectations.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
20 Aug

COT Metals Speculators raise Platinum bullish bets higher for 3rd week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: Platinum bullish bets rise

COT precious metals speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (2,094 contracts) with Silver (629 contracts), Palladium (371 contracts) and Copper (257 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-1,687 contracts) on the week.

Highlighting the metals data this week is that Platinum speculator bets that have bounced back a bit over the past three weeks after a recent down-streak that put the position in negative territory. The Platinum large speculator positions rose this week for a third straight week and for the fourth time over the past five weeks. This recent uptick has pulled the overall position out of a bearish level that had held from June 28th to August 2nd. This week, the current position increased into a small bullish level of +2,940 contracts. The Platinum futures price, meanwhile, took a step back this week with a loss. The futures had previously seen four straight weekly gains before closing the week below the $900.00 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,3490214,9401-239,29110024,35148
Gold453,9600141,16419-153,7098412,5454
Silver144,314113,50810-12,451908,94312
Copper183,50017-28,2202228,93279-71221
Palladium7,9517-1,599141,536836348
Platinum57,254172,94012-6,361903,42110
Natural Gas983,4605-120,9114282,8625738,04970
Brent176,90221-36,0125134,290501,72233
Heating Oil296,9873424,92679-40,0222915,09651
Soybeans595,095583,18339-51,65068-31,53318
Corn1,316,4621220,12958-166,31848-53,81112
Coffee190,302033,47168-35,318371,84716
Sugar737,535749,97047-61,8375611,86723
Wheat313,23711-1,908177,44870-5,54082

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper is the highest metals market currently at just 22.0 percent of its 3-year range. The rest of the metals markets are all in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent) and have been for a while now. Gold (18.6 percent), Palladium (13.8 percent), Platinum (12.0 percent) and Silver (9.7 percent) round out the rest of the metals market in strength scores.

 


Strength Statistics:
Gold (18.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.2 percent)
Silver (9.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (22.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.9 percent)
Platinum (12.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (9.2 percent)
Palladium (13.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (11.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Palladium (10.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Platinum (7.7 percent) and Copper (2.6 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Silver (-2.0 percent) and Gold (-1.7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently but have both improved since last week.

 


Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-5.7 percent)
Silver (-2.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.7 percent)
Copper (2.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (7.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.9 percent)
Palladium (10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 141,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.527.08.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.460.95.6
– Net Position:141,164-153,70912,545
– Gross Longs:238,196122,56637,826
– Gross Shorts:97,032276,27525,281
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.683.73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.74.3-20.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.241.416.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.750.09.9
– Net Position:3,508-12,4518,943
– Gross Longs:47,85159,75323,230
– Gross Shorts:44,34372,20414,287
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.790.012.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.0-0.812.0

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.546.47.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.930.78.1
– Net Position:-28,22028,932-712
– Gross Longs:46,79785,18714,097
– Gross Shorts:75,01756,25514,809
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.079.321.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-1.7-6.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.839.711.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.750.85.3
– Net Position:2,940-6,3613,421
– Gross Longs:26,21822,7496,467
– Gross Shorts:23,27829,1103,046
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.090.29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-6.1-13.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.654.915.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.735.614.3
– Net Position:-1,5991,53663
– Gross Longs:1,4794,3631,202
– Gross Shorts:3,0782,8271,139
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.883.447.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-14.343.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions
16 Aug

Gold And Silver: Is It A Trap?

By Ino.com

Back in June, I shared with you an alternative scenario for gold with a downside trigger on the trendline support.

I highlighted it with a purple color in the weekly gold futures chart below. This area is fortified with the red horizontal trendline based on the former valley of $1,678. Though, it’s a double support level.

Gold Futures Weekly

Source: TradingView
 

It is amazing how accurately the price bounced off that strong support. The metal took its chance to jump to the upside amid the falling yield of 10-year U.S. government bonds (10Y).

The easing inflation data limits the hawkish expectations on the Fed rate hikes. Though, the 10Y’s advance has been paused as the market took some gains amid uncertainty.

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However, the real interest rate is still strongly negative at -6%. The labor market shows vitality according to statistics. This leaves the room for the Fed to keep tightening until something breaks down.

The 10Y bounced off recently from 2.6% to 2.85% and nobody knows if it’s a continuation or a consolidation.

The gold market has been trapped with the whole uncertainty as it has built a large sideways consolidation since August 2020.

As long as the gold futures price keeps both above the former valley of $1,678 and the trendline support there is a chance to see the retest of the all-time high of $2,089.

For a bullish setup, the price should chart the minor correction that should not drop below the recent valley followed by the breakup of the most recent minor top as shown with the blue zigzag.

The RSI is close to the neutral area and it should move above the “waterline” of 50 to support a further advance of the price.

Such a large consolidation could bring a hope for gold bulls for a really big gain, as size matters! The longer it takes the market to digest the uncertainty, the stronger will be the new base for a new launch of the price to the upside.

Let us watch to see if the price will keep its grip above current support otherwise it would be a trap.

 

Silver Futures Weekly

Source: TradingView
 

The silver chart was so bullish and so clean in my earlier update this March.

Much to the regret of silver bugs, the price couldn’t overcome the top of a junction at the confirmation level and then it rapidly lost its shine and a glory.

The drop in the second red leg down was sharper as was the Fed with a tightening. I relocated the labels of the red legs down as the structure got clearer over time. This is the tricky nature of corrections.

The silver futures have an ideal reaction on the chart. The volume profile has shown an amazingly accurate support in the second largest volume zone in the $18 area. The price bounced off right there. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is also here. The last valuable measurement is the size of red leg 2 compared to red leg 1 – the former is longer than the latter and that is a sign of sufficiency.

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The most of you didn’t buy the target of $80 based on the giant Cup & Handle pattern and preferred the conservative targets within $40-$50 range.

Bulls should push the price above the nearest barrier of $22.6 first to overcome the volume gap pit where the silver futures price is now.

The RSI must break above the neutral level above 50. The final confirmation is located at the apex of the junction at $27.5. The new target based on a lower C point is located at $36.7.

The trap could evolve if the silver futures price drops below the most recent valley of $18.

Intelligent trades!

Aibek Burabayev
INO.com Contributor

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Gold And Silver: Is It A Trap?

Financial News Metals
13 Aug

Gold & Silver Large Speculator bets continue to gain after falling to multi-year lows

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT precious metals speculator bets were higher again this week as five out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just one market had lower weekly contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (18,525 contracts) with Platinum (3,387 contracts), Silver (1,905 contracts) and Palladium (590 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only metals markets with a decline in speculator bets this week was Copper with a decrease of -1,071 contracts.

Highlighting the COT metals changes this week is the strong rebound in Gold speculator bets over the past two weeks. This week’s +18,525 contract rise followed last week’s +31,636 contract jump for a two-week gain of approximately +50,000 contracts. This positive speculator sentiment has pushed the Gold bullish level to the highest of the past five weeks. Previously on July 26th, the Gold speculator level had fallen to the lowest level in one hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019 and near the height of the COVID-19 pandemic panic when most markets were going haywire. The Gold futures price has been on the rebound as well after hitting a recent low near $1,678.50 on July 21st. The Gold price has had four straight positive weeks and closed out this week near the $1,815.50 level.

Silver speculator contracts rose this week for a second consecutive week and rose a little further away from bearish territory. The Silver speculator positions had previously dropped into bearish territory on July 26th, a rare occurrence and the first time it has happened since June 4th of 2019 (a span of 164 weeks). Silver bets have seen a modest rebound over the past two weeks while the Silver futures price has risen in two out of the past three weeks. Silver is back above the $20 threshold after bouncing off the $18 level for a few weeks in July.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-09-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,570,1310210,6510-238,07310027,42253
Gold453,5400142,85119-154,5548311,7031
Silver141,09382,8799-13,5748910,69521
Copper187,98821-28,4772227,7007877730
Palladium7,6196-1,970122,04486-7440
Platinum62,782268469-4,055933,2097
Natural Gas969,5823-125,4194186,7345838,68572
Brent175,89621-34,2115432,411471,80034
Heating Oil283,7492924,46478-36,4723212,00840
Soybeans583,208288,90141-62,97165-25,93027
Corn1,317,9131210,78657-160,65449-50,13214
Coffee209,4461330,45365-31,268418157
Sugar765,6691226,06542-30,608624,54313
Wheat320,76714-3,426159,93974-6,51377

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (21.9 percent) continues to be the leader in strength scores but is at a very low level. The rest of the metals all remain in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent) and have been there for many consecutive weeks. Despite the persistent weak sentiment, all metals except Copper have started seeing improvements week-over-week with Gold rising by 7.1 percent this week.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (19.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.1 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (6.6 percent)
Copper (21.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.6 percent)
Platinum (9.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.6 percent)
Palladium (11.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Palladium (10.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Platinum (2.9 percent) and Copper (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. Silver (-9.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently but is improving compared to last week’s -21.2 percent trend. Gold is at -5.7 percent this week and also has improved compared to last week’s -14.9 percent trend score.


Strength Trends Statistics:
Gold (-5.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-14.9 percent)
Silver (-9.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-21.2 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-4.7 percent)
Platinum (2.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-5.5 percent)
Palladium (10.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 142,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.626.98.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.161.05.8
– Net Position:142,851-154,55411,703
– Gross Longs:242,906121,98037,927
– Gross Shorts:100,055276,53426,224
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.283.41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.79.9-34.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.640.317.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.649.99.5
– Net Position:2,879-13,57410,695
– Gross Longs:48,86456,87624,122
– Gross Shorts:45,98570,45013,427
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.088.920.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.75.015.1

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.345.37.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.530.57.5
– Net Position:-28,47727,700777
– Gross Longs:49,47785,08514,822
– Gross Shorts:77,95457,38514,045
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.978.529.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-2.47.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.238.910.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.945.45.7
– Net Position:846-4,0553,209
– Gross Longs:27,75424,4506,803
– Gross Shorts:26,90828,5053,594
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.293.26.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-0.9-20.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.558.815.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.332.016.6
– Net Position:-1,9702,044-74
– Gross Longs:1,3314,4821,191
– Gross Shorts:3,3012,4381,265
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.786.239.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.4-13.431.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

 

 

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions
08 Aug

Trade Of The Week: What Next For Gold As Focus Shifts To US CPI?

By ForexTime 

– Gold kicked off the week on a steady note despite last Friday’s blowout jobs report cooling recession fears and reinforcing expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

An appreciating dollar and jump in Treasury yields initially dragged the precious metal from a one-month peak. However, prices seem to be making their way back towards this point ahead of another big week and potentially volatile week for gold.

In July, the US economy created 528,000 jobs, well above the forecast of 250,000 while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% as the labour market condition tightened. With the strong jobs report boosting the dollar and supporting the case for another jumbo Fed rate hike, this could spell more trouble for zero-yielding gold.

It is worth keeping in mind that before the NFP upside surprise, gold drew ample support from geopolitics risks, recession fears, reduced Fed hike bets, and a weaker dollar. In fact, the precious metal has rallied for the last three weeks on these themes with geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns offering an opportunity for the precious metal to shine.

Taking a quick look at the technicals, gold remains in a bullish trend on the daily charts. The current upside momentum could take prices towards $1809. However, if the fundamentals start to empower bears – then things could get ugly for gold. We are likely to see the precious metal display high levels of sensitivity to the pending US inflation data.

All eyes on US inflation report

Inflation in the United States accelerated 9.1% in June, its highest level in 40 years!

According to Bloomberg, July’s inflation data is expected to show annual inflation cooling to 8.7%. Should expectations become reality, this will be a welcome development for markets and may fuel speculation around inflation peaking. Now when factoring the market obsession and reactivity to anything relating to rising prices, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts!

Another jump in US consumer price inflation may solidify expectations around the Federal Reserve hiking rates by another 75 basis points in September. Traders are currently pricing in a 78% probability the Fed continues the pace of jumbo rate hikes for its decision in September. Given gold’s zero-yielding nature, this is certainly bad news and could result in steep downside losses.

However, if the inflation report meets or misses expectations – this could raise hopes over consumer prices plateauing. Such a development could encourage the Fed to dial back on its aggressive approach toward rates. If the dollar weakens and Treasury yields fall on such a development, gold could be given more room to fight back.

Gold speeding into a brick wall?

Gold bulls remain in the driving seat with their feet on the accelerator, clawing back losses from Friday’s selloff. Prices are trading around the $1785 level which is just below the 50-day Simple Moving Average. A strong breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards $1809 and potentially $1840 – a level below the 100 and 200-day SMA. However, if 1809 proves to be a tough nut to crack – prices may slip back towards $1785 and $1752, respectively.

Zooming in on the weekly charts, prices remain in a bearish channel. However, bulls are making a presence and have been in control for the past 3 weeks. The upside momentum could take prices towards $1830 and $1875, respectively. A decline below $1740 is seen triggering a selloff towards $1685 – a level just above the 200-week Simple Moving Average.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

 

 

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