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COT Stock Market Speculators bring VIX Volatility bearish bets to 85-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest release was delayed by the CFTC due to the Christmas holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 21st 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT stock market data is the decreasing VIX Volatility futures bearish bets. The speculative net position in the VIX futures saw bearish bets drop by more than 13,000 contracts for the fourth time out of the past six weeks and VIX bearish bets have now fallen for four straight weeks (by a total of 50,327 contracts over that time-frame). Overall, the VIX net speculator position (currently sitting at -31,609 contracts) is at the least bearish level since May 5th of 2020, a span of eighty-five weeks.

The stock markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were VIX (13,341 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (15,541 contracts), Nikkei 225 USD (352 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE Mini (6,589 contracts).

The markets with lower speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-31,393 contracts), Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-2,588 contracts), Nasdaq Mini (-8,103 contracts) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-2,219 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-21-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,262,123	0	136,381	91	-177,187	34	40,806	35
Nikkei 225	15,333	3	-7,462	31	6,657	75	805	37
Nasdaq-Mini	208,070	18	25,360	89	-27,271	10	1,911	48
DowJones-Mini	91,384	58	-9,265	24	4,786	68	4,479	62
VIX	289,170	24	-31,609	72	40,247	31	-8,638	24
Nikkei 225 Yen	42,400	18	5,172	35	12,908	69	-18,080	43

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,950 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	47.4	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	33.5	9.5
– Net Position:	-31,609	40,247	-8,638
– Gross Longs:	68,394	137,135	18,761
– Gross Shorts:	100,003	96,888	27,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	31.3	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-17.5	-1.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 136,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -31,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	68.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	75.8	9.9
– Net Position:	136,381	-177,187	40,806
– Gross Longs:	414,346	1,538,034	265,524
– Gross Shorts:	277,965	1,715,221	224,718
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.0	34.2	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-7.2	0.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	51.8	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	46.6	12.7
– Net Position:	-9,265	4,786	4,479
– Gross Longs:	27,362	47,350	16,117
– Gross Shorts:	36,627	42,564	11,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	68.3	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	9.6	0.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,463 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	46.3	18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	59.4	17.2
– Net Position:	25,360	-27,271	1,911
– Gross Longs:	71,976	96,389	37,621
– Gross Shorts:	46,616	123,660	35,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.2	9.7	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-10.6	18.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	76.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	76.1	4.1
– Net Position:	-12,173	682	11,491
– Gross Longs:	75,484	350,828	30,154
– Gross Shorts:	87,657	350,146	18,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	44.7	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-4.4	-15.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	63.2	26.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.3	19.8	20.7
– Net Position:	-7,462	6,657	805
– Gross Longs:	1,633	9,686	3,985
– Gross Shorts:	9,095	3,029	3,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	74.9	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.7	30.5	-10.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	90.4	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.9	95.0	1.6
– Net Position:	14,069	-17,928	3,859
– Gross Longs:	25,328	348,940	10,059
– Gross Shorts:	11,259	366,868	6,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	67.6	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-17.9	-21.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

27 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Speculators boosted Soybean bullish bets to 18-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the sharp rise in Soybean bullish bets to an 18-week high-point. Soybeans speculator positions rose for a third consecutive week as bullish bets went back over the +100,000 net contract level for the first time since August. Last week’s rise was the largest one-week gain of the past sixty-eight weeks, dating back to September 1st of 2020.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets on the week were Corn (18,699 contracts), Soybeans (39,656 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,705 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,094 contracts), Cotton (-951 contracts) and Cocoa (1,804 contracts).

The markets that had lower bets were Sugar (-27,265 contracts), Coffee (-4,174 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,755 contracts), Live Cattle (-13,158 contracts) and Wheat (-2,833 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-21-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,892,701	0	340,255	20	-375,816	70	35,561	65
Gold	500,846	19	205,811	53	-236,029	46	30,218	50
Silver	141,119	8	20,926	43	-36,399	63	15,473	30
Copper	170,353	5	4,437	46	-9,777	53	5,340	56
Palladium	9,518	14	-3,639	1	3,985	99	-346	24
Platinum	64,732	30	1,268	4	-7,717	98	6,449	52
Natural Gas	1,142,729	4	-141,212	36	109,551	65	31,661	59
Brent	224,110	58	-25,001	76	22,225	26	2,776	47
Heating Oil	302,721	3	4,897	50	-21,060	49	16,163	54
Soybeans	654,460	11	102,877	56	-72,352	49	-30,525	21
Corn	1,485,412	19	445,320	87	-401,280	15	-44,040	18
Coffee	258,871	28	56,134	89	-57,984	14	1,850	1
Sugar	864,082	9	189,198	75	-210,783	28	21,585	35
Wheat	357,381	11	9,132	55	-1,601	39	-7,531	66

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 445,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 426,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.9	44.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.9	71.4	11.8
– Net Position:	445,320	-401,280	-44,040
– Gross Longs:	517,718	659,593	131,137
– Gross Shorts:	72,398	1,060,873	175,177
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	14.8	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-11.4	6.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 189,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 216,463 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	49.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.0	73.8	6.3
– Net Position:	189,198	-210,783	21,585
– Gross Longs:	240,751	426,557	75,597
– Gross Shorts:	51,553	637,340	54,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.5	28.2	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	9.5	-33.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 56,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	48.1	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.3	70.5	2.8
– Net Position:	56,134	-57,984	1,850
– Gross Longs:	69,794	124,465	9,132
– Gross Shorts:	13,660	182,449	7,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.4	14.4	1.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.8	-18.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 102,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	53.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	64.3	12.4
– Net Position:	102,877	-72,352	-30,525
– Gross Longs:	152,008	348,397	50,683
– Gross Shorts:	49,131	420,749	81,208
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	48.8	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-19.2	10.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 80,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	46.6	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	72.0	6.5
– Net Position:	80,134	-101,479	21,345
– Gross Longs:	101,957	186,874	47,345
– Gross Shorts:	21,823	288,353	26,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	24.5	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-17.4	-14.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 66,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	37.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	56.3	13.1
– Net Position:	66,356	-57,712	-8,644
– Gross Longs:	113,339	112,965	31,159
– Gross Shorts:	46,983	170,677	39,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	60.4	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-13.6	-1.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 55,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	36.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	54.9	15.0
– Net Position:	55,296	-39,273	-16,023
– Gross Longs:	85,559	76,686	15,634
– Gross Shorts:	30,263	115,959	31,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	42.1	11.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-11.1	0.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 87,737 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,688 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.4	35.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.3	78.6	3.0
– Net Position:	87,737	-98,098	10,361
– Gross Longs:	99,892	82,576	17,286
– Gross Shorts:	12,155	180,674	6,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	20.6	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	11.3	-21.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	52.6	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	53.7	4.3
– Net Position:	703	-2,534	1,831
– Gross Longs:	60,704	122,521	11,806
– Gross Shorts:	60,001	125,055	9,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.0	76.6	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-3.5	-15.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 9,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	37.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	38.0	10.5
– Net Position:	9,132	-1,601	-7,531
– Gross Longs:	103,696	134,206	29,825
– Gross Shorts:	94,564	135,807	37,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	39.3	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	11.5	-8.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Soft Commodities

18 Dec

COT Currency Speculators elevate Mexican Peso bets by most since May 2017

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 14th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT currency data was a giant surge in bets in favor of the Mexican peso. Speculative positions jumped by over +53,000 contracts this week, marking the largest one-week increase since a gain of +54,788 contracts back on May 9th of 2017, a span of two-hundred and forty weeks. The largest one-week rise in peso contracts was +58,504 contracts on March 27th of 2012. Overall, peso positioning went from a total speculative standing of -64,126 contracts last week to a total of -10,673 contracts this week. Helping the cause of the peso this week was the fifth straight interest rate rise by the Mexican central bank that pushed its interest rate higher by 50 basis points.

Joining the Mexican peso (53,453 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (9,558 contracts), Brazil real (1,007 contracts), Swiss franc (3,717 contracts), Australian dollar (2,889 contracts), Russian ruble (2,725 contracts) and Bitcoin (136 contracts).

The currencies with declining speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-3,624 contracts), Euro (-3,580 contracts), British pound sterling (-12,471 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-16,569 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (-3,770 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-14-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	52,098	72	31,241	80	-36,615	14	5,374	75
EUR	661,711	69	-11,879	31	-16,589	71	28,468	22
GBP	213,210	47	-50,748	37	70,440	71	-19,692	15
JPY	176,584	39	-53,523	34	71,060	71	-17,537	12
CHF	38,467	12	-8,336	55	14,808	47	-6,472	44
CAD	186,638	55	-13,128	44	-2,059	50	15,187	60
AUD	197,405	81	-78,903	10	98,423	92	-19,520	5
NZD	41,223	27	-5,861	61	8,174	43	-2,313	25
MXN	101,049	0	-10,673	23	12,423	78	-1,750	36
RUB	64,500	78	16,524	53	-17,603	45	1,079	64
BRL	27,706	23	-4,617	62	4,992	40	-375	62
Bitcoin	13,518	77	-772	85	257	0	515	25

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.1	3.2	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	73.5	3.3
– Net Position:	31,241	-36,615	5,374
– Gross Longs:	42,263	1,693	7,071
– Gross Shorts:	11,022	38,308	1,697
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.0 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	13.8	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	9.0	-18.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	57.1	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	59.6	7.8
– Net Position:	-11,879	-16,589	28,468
– Gross Longs:	189,530	378,079	80,169
– Gross Shorts:	201,409	394,668	51,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	71.0	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	1.7	-0.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -50,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	76.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	43.1	18.4
– Net Position:	-50,748	70,440	-19,692
– Gross Longs:	29,497	162,359	19,535
– Gross Shorts:	80,245	91,919	39,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.4	71.3	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.4	48.6	-33.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	77.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	37.3	19.7
– Net Position:	-53,523	71,060	-17,537
– Gross Longs:	20,231	136,938	17,308
– Gross Shorts:	73,754	65,878	34,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	71.5	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.2	-27.2	1.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,053 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.5	67.0	29.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	28.5	46.2
– Net Position:	-8,336	14,808	-6,472
– Gross Longs:	1,344	25,786	11,302
– Gross Shorts:	9,680	10,978	17,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	47.5	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-12.1	-4.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	39.9	22.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	41.0	14.6
– Net Position:	-13,128	-2,059	15,187
– Gross Longs:	38,230	74,451	42,399
– Gross Shorts:	51,358	76,510	27,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	50.4	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	15.9	-16.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	74.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.8	24.9	18.4
– Net Position:	-78,903	98,423	-19,520
– Gross Longs:	29,254	147,601	16,807
– Gross Shorts:	108,157	49,178	36,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.4	92.3	4.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	18.3	-51.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,569 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,708 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	58.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	38.4	13.1
– Net Position:	-5,861	8,174	-2,313
– Gross Longs:	13,539	23,994	3,081
– Gross Shorts:	19,400	15,820	5,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	43.0	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.1	38.2	-58.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 53,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	60.9	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	48.6	5.5
– Net Position:	-10,673	12,423	-1,750
– Gross Longs:	34,748	61,580	3,829
– Gross Shorts:	45,421	49,157	5,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.8	78.0	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-15.2	-16.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	52.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.5	34.5	10.4
– Net Position:	-4,617	4,992	-375
– Gross Longs:	10,491	14,537	2,519
– Gross Shorts:	15,108	9,545	2,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	40.1	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-12.5	-3.5

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	55.2	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	82.5	1.8
– Net Position:	16,524	-17,603	1,079
– Gross Longs:	21,623	35,635	2,230
– Gross Shorts:	5,099	53,238	1,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	45.2	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	9.8	-22.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.5	3.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	1.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-772	257	515
– Gross Longs:	9,795	421	1,565
– Gross Shorts:	10,567	164	1,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.2	55.0	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-15.6	-15.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

18 Dec

COT Bonds Speculators boost 2-Year Treasury Bond futures bullish bets to 185-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 14th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT bonds data is the continued strengthening of the speculators net positions in the 2-Year Bond futures. Speculator net positions have increased in 2-year bonds for the third straight week and for the ninth time out of the past eleven weeks. The net speculator position turned bullish on November 30th after spending fourteen straight weeks in bearish territory and has now climbed to the most bullish level of the past one-hundred and eighty-five weeks, dating all the way back to May 29th of 2018. At the moment, both the speculators (+45,198 contracts) and commercials (+26,586 contracts) are bullish on the 2-year futures while the small traders make up the other side of the contracts with bearish positioning with a total of -71,784 contracts.

Joining the 2-Year Bond (12,593 contracts) with rising bets this week were the Long US Bond (9,204 contracts), the FedFunds (24,007 contracts) and the 5-Year (47,728 contracts) while decreasing bets for the week were seen in the Eurodollar (-347,668 contracts), 10-Year (-6,850 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-5,586 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-2,119 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-14-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	11,179,135	48	-1,722,531	8	2,176,288	91	-453,757	17
FedFunds	1,331,096	26	-89,312	29	102,121	72	-12,809	30
2-Year	1,965,142	7	45,198	100	26,586	26	-71,784	0
Long T-Bond	1,219,698	52	-37,318	80	-4,833	19	42,151	86
10-Year	3,769,585	48	-273,856	30	532,167	88	-258,311	19
5-Year	3,603,997	27	-339,803	21	567,090	91	-227,287	19

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,722,531 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -347,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,374,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	69.8	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	50.4	8.2
– Net Position:	-1,722,531	2,176,288	-453,757
– Gross Longs:	974,044	7,805,730	457,991
– Gross Shorts:	2,696,575	5,629,442	911,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.8	90.9	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	16.6	-17.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -89,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 24,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -113,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.7	80.9	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	73.2	2.6
– Net Position:	-89,312	102,121	-12,809
– Gross Longs:	48,959	1,076,381	22,103
– Gross Shorts:	138,271	974,260	34,912
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	72.3	29.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	3.4	-2.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	68.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	66.9	9.8
– Net Position:	45,198	26,586	-71,784
– Gross Longs:	392,000	1,340,821	120,776
– Gross Shorts:	346,802	1,314,235	192,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	25.6	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.9	-19.6	-9.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -339,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 47,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -387,531 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	81.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	65.5	13.6
– Net Position:	-339,803	567,090	-227,287
– Gross Longs:	297,042	2,928,739	262,001
– Gross Shorts:	636,845	2,361,649	489,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.6	90.6	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-5.3	0.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -273,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -267,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	78.2	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	64.1	14.8
– Net Position:	-273,856	532,167	-258,311
– Gross Longs:	432,501	2,946,901	298,285
– Gross Shorts:	706,357	2,414,734	556,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	88.4	18.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-9.2	18.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 108,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,607 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	72.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	67.0	20.7
– Net Position:	108,021	71,231	-179,252
– Gross Longs:	257,314	987,498	103,827
– Gross Shorts:	149,293	916,267	283,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	64.2	7.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	13.5	-1.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,318 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	70.6	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	71.0	12.4
– Net Position:	-37,318	-4,833	42,151
– Gross Longs:	145,491	861,405	193,198
– Gross Shorts:	182,809	866,238	151,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	18.6	86.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-17.0	46.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -292,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -290,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	79.5	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	58.8	9.8
– Net Position:	-292,473	259,703	32,770
– Gross Longs:	87,778	997,164	155,563
– Gross Shorts:	380,251	737,461	122,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	42.0	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-11.6	16.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions

18 Dec

COT Metals Speculators dropped their Gold bullish bets for 4th straight week

Highlighting this week’s COT metals data is the weakness in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures fell sharply this week and dropped for a fourth consecutive week. These declines have now shed a total of -57,379 contracts off the bullish position in just the past four weeks time-frame. This has brought the overall net bullish position for Gold futures to the lowest level of the past eight weeks.

All of the metals markets were cover fell this week with Gold (-14,784 contracts) leading the way and joined by Silver (-7,849 contracts), Copper (-507 contracts), Platinum (-2,331 contracts) and Palladium (-1,043 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-14-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,953,397	0	347,137	22	-385,527	67	38,390	69
Gold	503,709	20	202,401	52	-231,411	47	29,010	47
Silver	142,384	9	21,984	44	-35,855	64	13,871	21
Copper	171,976	6	6,697	47	-13,108	50	6,411	62
Palladium	10,098	16	-3,774	0	4,125	100	-351	24
Platinum	66,300	32	3,731	8	-9,661	95	5,930	45
Natural Gas	1,153,450	7	-130,226	39	99,238	62	30,988	57
Brent	217,274	53	-23,610	78	20,030	22	3,580	58
Heating Oil	304,130	3	4,723	49	-20,481	49	15,758	53
Soybeans	647,243	9	63,221	46	-27,165	59	-36,056	12
Corn	1,459,289	14	426,621	85	-381,897	18	-44,724	17
Coffee	260,063	29	60,308	92	-63,167	10	2,859	8
Sugar	874,996	12	216,463	81	-251,878	20	35,415	52
Wheat	361,469	14	11,965	57	-5,152	36	-6,813	69

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 202,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 217,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.2	21.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	67.3	3.9
– Net Position:	202,401	-231,411	29,010
– Gross Longs:	298,142	107,421	48,697
– Gross Shorts:	95,741	338,832	19,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	47.0	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	2.6	12.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	30.5	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	55.7	9.1
– Net Position:	21,984	-35,855	13,871
– Gross Longs:	63,669	43,477	26,796
– Gross Shorts:	41,685	79,332	12,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	63.7	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	12.8	-11.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	43.9	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	51.6	6.4
– Net Position:	6,697	-13,108	6,411
– Gross Longs:	62,990	75,561	17,403
– Gross Shorts:	56,293	88,669	10,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	50.4	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	19.4	-14.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	38.7	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	53.3	5.8
– Net Position:	3,731	-9,661	5,930
– Gross Longs:	27,853	25,655	9,781
– Gross Shorts:	24,122	35,316	3,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	95.3	44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	17.6	-9.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,731 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	59.2	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.5	18.3	15.9
– Net Position:	-3,774	4,125	-351
– Gross Longs:	2,637	5,973	1,256
– Gross Shorts:	6,411	1,848	1,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.9	-9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

18 Dec

COT Energy Speculators drop their WTI Crude Oil bullish bets to lowest in 146-weeks

Highlighting this week’s COT energy data is the continued decreases in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has declined for five weeks in a row and for seven out of the previous eight weeks. The WTI speculator positions have now slid by a total of -74,175 contracts over the past five week time-frame. This recent weakness has pushed the current net speculator standing for WTI positions to the lowest level in the past one-hundred and forty-six weeks, dating back to February 26th of 2019.

Joining WTI Crude Oil (-20,095 contracts) in falling this week were Brent Crude Oil (-3,164 contracts) and Heating Oil (-3,874 contracts). The markets with increasing speculators bets this week were Natural Gas (2,217 contracts), Gasoline (6,551 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (7,838 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-14-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,953,397	0	347,137	22	-385,527	67	38,390	69
Gold	503,709	20	202,401	52	-231,411	47	29,010	47
Silver	142,384	9	21,984	44	-35,855	64	13,871	21
Copper	171,976	6	6,697	47	-13,108	50	6,411	62
Palladium	10,098	16	-3,774	0	4,125	100	-351	24
Platinum	66,300	32	3,731	8	-9,661	95	5,930	45
Natural Gas	1,153,450	7	-130,226	39	99,238	62	30,988	57
Brent	217,274	53	-23,610	78	20,030	22	3,580	58
Heating Oil	304,130	3	4,723	49	-20,481	49	15,758	53
Soybeans	647,243	9	63,221	46	-27,165	59	-36,056	12
Corn	1,459,289	14	426,621	85	-381,897	18	-44,724	17
Coffee	260,063	29	60,308	92	-63,167	10	2,859	8
Sugar	874,996	12	216,463	81	-251,878	20	35,415	52
Wheat	361,469	14	11,965	57	-5,152	36	-6,813	69

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 347,137 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 367,232 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	37.9	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	57.6	2.5
– Net Position:	347,137	-385,527	38,390
– Gross Longs:	483,233	739,745	87,432
– Gross Shorts:	136,096	1,125,272	49,042
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	66.9	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	22.8	-5.4

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	44.4	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	35.2	1.9
– Net Position:	-23,610	20,030	3,580
– Gross Longs:	43,014	96,539	7,666
– Gross Shorts:	66,624	76,509	4,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	22.2	57.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.0	21.7	-19.5

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -130,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,217 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	44.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	35.7	1.9
– Net Position:	-130,226	99,238	30,988
– Gross Longs:	224,710	511,567	52,930
– Gross Shorts:	354,936	412,329	21,942
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	62.2	57.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.8	-33.4

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 56,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	44.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	65.2	4.0
– Net Position:	56,434	-61,932	5,498
– Gross Longs:	92,136	136,769	17,790
– Gross Shorts:	35,702	198,701	12,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.5	75.1	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-3.6	-18.5

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	52.8	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	59.5	8.0
– Net Position:	4,723	-20,481	15,758
– Gross Longs:	37,337	160,612	40,145
– Gross Shorts:	32,614	181,093	24,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.4	49.5	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	27.0	-26.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.1	19.5	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.2	4.4	0.1
– Net Position:	-8,583	8,071	512
– Gross Longs:	29,505	10,444	539
– Gross Shorts:	38,088	2,373	27
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	4.4 to 1	20.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	24.3	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-20.8	-6.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Opinions

18 Dec

COT Speculators bullish positions in Sugar rebounded this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data is the rebound in Sugar futures bets this week. The speculator net positioning in the Sugar futures rose by +25,224 net contracts this week following two straight weekly declines. The boost in Sugar bets has now brought the weekly speculator changes higher in five out of the past seven weeks and pushed back the speculator position into a extreme-bullish reading of 81 percent in the strength index (current speculator standing compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme).

Despite the recent uptrend in speculator bets and the Sugar price, open interest has been waning in the Sugar market (as well as many other soft commodities markets) indicating that this may be a weakening trend.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets this week were Corn (15,807 contracts), Sugar (25,224 contracts), Soybeans (3,567 contracts), Soybean Meal (18,786 contracts), Live Cattle (1,991 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,905 contracts) and Cocoa (7,994 contracts). The commodities that fell in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-2,036 contracts), Soybean Oil (-19,292 contracts), Cotton (-1,326 contracts) and Wheat (-3,702 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-14-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,953,397	0	347,137	22	-385,527	67	38,390	69
Gold	503,709	20	202,401	52	-231,411	47	29,010	47
Silver	142,384	9	21,984	44	-35,855	64	13,871	21
Copper	171,976	6	6,697	47	-13,108	50	6,411	62
Palladium	10,098	16	-3,774	0	4,125	100	-351	24
Platinum	66,300	32	3,731	8	-9,661	95	5,930	45
Natural Gas	1,153,450	7	-130,226	39	99,238	62	30,988	57
Brent	217,274	53	-23,610	78	20,030	22	3,580	58
Heating Oil	304,130	3	4,723	49	-20,481	49	15,758	53
Soybeans	647,243	9	63,221	46	-27,165	59	-36,056	12
Corn	1,459,289	14	426,621	85	-381,897	18	-44,724	17
Coffee	260,063	29	60,308	92	-63,167	10	2,859	8
Sugar	874,996	12	216,463	81	-251,878	20	35,415	52
Wheat	361,469	14	11,965	57	-5,152	36	-6,813	69

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 426,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 410,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	45.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.7	71.6	12.0
– Net Position:	426,621	-381,897	-44,724
– Gross Longs:	495,864	663,387	130,158
– Gross Shorts:	69,243	1,045,284	174,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.5	17.5	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-8.8	10.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 216,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 25,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	47.1	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.7	75.9	5.7
– Net Position:	216,463	-251,878	35,415
– Gross Longs:	257,362	412,123	85,082
– Gross Shorts:	40,899	664,001	49,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.1	20.4	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-0.2	-7.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,344 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	46.6	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.9	70.9	2.7
– Net Position:	60,308	-63,167	2,859
– Gross Longs:	73,055	121,247	9,965
– Gross Shorts:	12,747	184,414	7,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.4	10.3	8.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	4.8	-14.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 63,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	57.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	61.5	13.1
– Net Position:	63,221	-27,165	-36,056
– Gross Longs:	123,569	370,840	48,568
– Gross Shorts:	60,348	398,005	84,624
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	59.4	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.7	4.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 71,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	46.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	70.2	6.9
– Net Position:	71,429	-93,865	22,436
– Gross Longs:	97,124	179,389	49,385
– Gross Shorts:	25,695	273,254	26,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.6	28.8	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-21.8	-7.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 79,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	36.7	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	58.0	13.5
– Net Position:	79,514	-65,710	-13,804
– Gross Longs:	124,688	113,185	27,910
– Gross Shorts:	45,174	178,895	41,714
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	53.8	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.3	-23.9	-21.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	35.9	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.3	15.0
– Net Position:	54,202	-37,071	-17,131
– Gross Longs:	90,314	76,453	14,782
– Gross Shorts:	36,112	113,524	31,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	44.4	6.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-5.6	-12.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 88,688 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	36.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	78.5	3.2
– Net Position:	88,688	-98,538	9,850
– Gross Longs:	101,772	84,397	17,387
– Gross Shorts:	13,084	182,935	7,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	20.4	75.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	10.7	-21.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	52.5	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	52.5	4.4
– Net Position:	-1,101	46	1,055
– Gross Longs:	64,561	123,465	11,485
– Gross Shorts:	65,662	123,419	10,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	78.9	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	18.0	-34.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	35.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	36.9	10.9
– Net Position:	11,965	-5,152	-6,813
– Gross Longs:	109,485	128,325	32,453
– Gross Shorts:	97,520	133,477	39,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	35.8	69.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.8	-0.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Soft Commodities

18 Dec

Stock Market COT Speculators reduce VIX bearish bets to lowest since May 2020

Highlighting the COT stock market data is the third straight weekly decrease in the VIX Volatility futures bearish bets. The speculative net position in the VIX futures saw bearish bets fall by 2,453 contracts this week following drops by 20,782 contracts and 13,751 contracts in the previous two weeks, respectively. The VIX speculator position (currently at -44,950 contracts) is now at the least bearish level of the past eighty-one weeks, dating back to May 26th of 2020.

The stock markets that saw rising speculator bets this week were VIX (2,453 contracts), S&P500 Mini (2,378 contracts), Nasdaq Mini (7,685 contracts), Nikkei 225 USD (-9,025 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE Mini (1,071 contracts).

The markets with lower speculator bets this week were MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-2,219 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-713 contracts) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-2,124 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-14-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,754,633	17	167,774	98	-203,537	29	35,763	34
Nikkei 225	15,643	4	-7,814	30	7,429	78	385	32
Nasdaq-Mini	269,716	54	33,463	94	-34,203	5	740	46
DowJones-Mini	120,668	99	-6,677	28	3,713	67	2,964	54
VIX	296,559	26	-44,950	67	57,858	38	-12,908	7
Nikkei 225 Yen	41,070	16	6,806	40	11,496	67	-18,302	43

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	47.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	28.2	10.2
– Net Position:	-44,950	57,858	-12,908
– Gross Longs:	64,840	141,574	17,442
– Gross Shorts:	109,790	83,716	30,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	37.8	7.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-18.0	-35.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 167,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	65.6	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	73.0	10.5
– Net Position:	167,774	-203,537	35,763
– Gross Longs:	441,419	1,808,330	325,418
– Gross Shorts:	273,645	2,011,867	289,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.5	29.4	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-7.1	-0.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	54.5	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	51.5	13.5
– Net Position:	-6,677	3,713	2,964
– Gross Longs:	31,182	65,821	19,224
– Gross Shorts:	37,859	62,108	16,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.5	67.0	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	15.5	-4.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,778 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	46.0	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	58.7	16.2
– Net Position:	33,463	-34,203	740
– Gross Longs:	85,036	124,070	44,448
– Gross Shorts:	51,573	158,273	43,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.7	5.5	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-22.1	21.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	77.5	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	74.2	4.3
– Net Position:	-27,714	17,302	10,412
– Gross Longs:	66,744	410,815	33,169
– Gross Shorts:	94,458	393,513	22,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.5	55.5	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-3.3	-15.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	65.4	24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.4	18.0	21.6
– Net Position:	-7,814	7,429	385
– Gross Longs:	1,633	10,237	3,759
– Gross Shorts:	9,447	2,808	3,374
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	77.5	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.1	33.5	-27.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	90.7	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.0	92.4	2.5
– Net Position:	7,480	-7,567	87
– Gross Longs:	24,572	391,047	10,826
– Gross Shorts:	17,092	398,614	10,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	84.5	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	2.0	-41.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Stock Market News

11 Dec

COT Currency Speculators trim Japanese Yen bearish bets to 11-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 7th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT currency data was the further retreat of bearish bets in the Japanese yen futures contracts. Yen speculators cut back on their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Over this five-week time-frame, yen bets have improved by a total of +44,543 contracts, going from -105,351 net positions on November 9th to -63,081 net positions this week. This recent improvement in yen positions has taken place very sharply as bets have gained by at least +12,000 contracts in three out of the past four weeks. Yen open interest has also been sharply falling as open interest contracts have dropped by -46,927 contracts over the past three weeks – suggesting a reversal could be underway as the shorts are liquidating their positions (-41,532 contracts past 3 weeks) at a faster rate than the longs (-11,487 contracts past 3 weeks).

Joining the yen (15,785 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Euro (14,941 contracts), Brazil real (8,218 contracts), Swiss franc (2,129 contracts), British pound sterling (622 contracts), New Zealand dollar (78 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,717 contracts), Russian ruble (162 contracts) and Bitcoin (783 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,014 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,607 contracts), Mexican peso (-4,379 contracts) and Bitcoin (783 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-07-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	59,994	89	34,865	86	-40,206	8	5,341	75
EUR	716,213	90	-8,299	32	-20,175	70	28,474	22
GBP	238,310	63	-38,277	46	54,624	62	-16,347	22
JPY	205,970	59	-63,081	28	80,497	76	-17,416	12
CHF	51,229	30	-12,053	49	20,346	54	-8,293	39
CAD	155,078	34	-9,358	47	6,137	55	3,221	52
AUD	212,150	92	-81,792	8	98,874	93	-17,082	11
NZD	55,975	55	10,708	89	-8,875	17	-1,833	31
MXN	200,173	48	-64,126	0	65,233	100	-1,107	38
RUB	59,970	70	13,799	46	-15,565	50	1,766	83
BRL	25,487	20	-5,624	61	5,835	41	-211	64
Bitcoin	13,242	75	-908	82	117	0	791	31

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,865 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.8	6.3	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	73.3	3.9
– Net Position:	34,865	-40,206	5,341
– Gross Longs:	43,058	3,775	7,699
– Gross Shorts:	8,193	43,981	2,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.9	7.8	75.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	2.9	-23.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,941 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	58.5	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	61.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-8,299	-20,175	28,474
– Gross Longs:	194,869	418,656	86,435
– Gross Shorts:	203,168	438,831	57,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	70.0	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.1	1.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	67.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	44.3	16.8
– Net Position:	-38,277	54,624	-16,347
– Gross Longs:	48,950	160,312	23,763
– Gross Shorts:	87,227	105,688	40,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	62.0	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.4	40.4	-31.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,866 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	79.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	40.5	17.5
– Net Position:	-63,081	80,497	-17,416
– Gross Longs:	13,148	163,847	18,654
– Gross Shorts:	76,229	83,350	36,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	76.2	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.8	-23.8	8.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,053 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	65.5	22.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	25.8	39.0
– Net Position:	-12,053	20,346	-8,293
– Gross Longs:	2,838	33,542	11,696
– Gross Shorts:	14,891	13,196	19,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	53.7	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-13.6	13.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	47.1	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	43.1	17.9
– Net Position:	-9,358	6,137	3,221
– Gross Longs:	41,095	72,984	31,046
– Gross Shorts:	50,453	66,847	27,825
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	55.5	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	20.5	-30.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	72.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	25.4	17.4
– Net Position:	-81,792	98,874	-17,082
– Gross Longs:	33,380	152,842	19,776
– Gross Shorts:	115,172	53,968	36,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	92.7	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	16.8	-38.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,708 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.0	27.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	42.9	9.0
– Net Position:	10,708	-8,875	-1,833
– Gross Longs:	31,881	15,123	3,194
– Gross Shorts:	21,173	23,998	5,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.2	16.7	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	4.0	-50.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -64,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	60.2	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.4	27.6	3.0
– Net Position:	-64,126	65,233	-1,107
– Gross Longs:	70,791	120,494	4,820
– Gross Shorts:	134,917	55,261	5,927
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	10.5	-17.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,842 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	57.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	34.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-5,624	5,835	-211
– Gross Longs:	7,978	14,739	2,590
– Gross Shorts:	13,602	8,904	2,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	41.2	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.2	-8.3

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 13,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	62.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	88.0	2.1
– Net Position:	13,799	-15,565	1,766
– Gross Longs:	19,031	37,193	3,054
– Gross Shorts:	5,232	52,758	1,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	49.9	82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.1	18.7	-13.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	3.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.2	2.6	6.6
– Net Position:	-908	117	791
– Gross Longs:	9,580	457	1,668
– Gross Shorts:	10,488	340	877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	41.7	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	82.1	-44.4	-69.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

11 Dec

COT Bonds Speculators push bullish 2-Year Treasuries bets to 17-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Highlighting this week’s COT bonds data is the gains in the 2-Year Bond that brings speculator positioning to the highest level in seventeen weeks. The speculative position in the 2-Year has risen for two consecutive weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks as well. This bullishness has brought the net position out of bearish territory for a second week and pushed the current net position to the best level since August 10th. This week’s net positioning is also the second highest level of the past three years which equates to a 99.5 percent strength score (current level compared to past three years of data).

Joining the 2-Year Bond (16,935 contracts) in gaining this week are 10-Year (46,365 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (4,727 contracts), Long US Bond (3,118 contracts), Ultra US Bond (20,142 contracts) while the declining positions this week were in the FedFunds (-14,841 contracts), 5-Year (-19,699 contracts) and the Eurodollar (-253,207 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-07-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	12,241,710	71	-1,374,863	18	1,849,419	82	-474,556	15
FedFunds	1,338,244	26	-113,319	26	119,740	74	-6,421	47
2-Year	1,887,954	4	32,605	100	21,757	25	-54,362	2
Long T-Bond	1,211,685	51	-46,522	77	25,038	28	21,484	70
10-Year	3,788,362	50	-267,006	31	538,925	89	-271,919	15
5-Year	3,532,357	23	-387,531	12	626,885	99	-239,354	15

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,374,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -253,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,121,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	67.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	52.6	7.5
– Net Position:	-1,374,863	1,849,419	-474,556
– Gross Longs:	1,347,006	8,286,582	442,408
– Gross Shorts:	2,721,869	6,437,163	916,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	82.0	15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	15.8	-28.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -113,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	81.2	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	72.2	2.1
– Net Position:	-113,319	119,740	-6,421
– Gross Longs:	48,763	1,086,342	22,027
– Gross Shorts:	162,082	966,602	28,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.6	74.4	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.9	8.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 16,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	70.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	69.5	9.7
– Net Position:	32,605	21,757	-54,362
– Gross Longs:	332,992	1,333,598	128,768
– Gross Shorts:	300,387	1,311,841	183,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.5	24.6	2.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.8	-29.1	-6.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -387,531 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	83.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	65.9	13.9
– Net Position:	-387,531	626,885	-239,354
– Gross Longs:	206,116	2,953,732	252,310
– Gross Shorts:	593,647	2,326,847	491,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	98.6	15.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.3	-0.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -267,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 46,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -313,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	78.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	64.5	14.7
– Net Position:	-267,006	538,925	-271,919
– Gross Longs:	429,676	2,982,925	286,003
– Gross Shorts:	696,682	2,444,000	557,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.9	89.2	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	12.0	12.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 113,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	72.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	68.2	20.0
– Net Position:	113,607	54,412	-168,019
– Gross Longs:	252,678	992,329	107,252
– Gross Shorts:	139,071	937,917	275,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	59.5	14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	9.8	5.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -46,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	72.1	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	70.1	14.0
– Net Position:	-46,522	25,038	21,484
– Gross Longs:	128,583	873,875	191,608
– Gross Shorts:	175,105	848,837	170,124
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	28.1	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-19.7	32.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -290,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 20,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -310,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	80.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	57.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-290,354	274,032	16,322
– Gross Longs:	75,407	986,451	153,443
– Gross Shorts:	365,761	712,419	137,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.8	49.0	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-25.2	7.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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