InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair advanced to 154.72 on Monday, trading near its highest levels since February, despite the release of Japanese economic data that surpassed forecasts.

Japan’s GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, a reversal from the 0.6% growth recorded in Q2. However, this outcome was better than the 0.6% decline anticipated by economists.

The yen’s weakness persists primarily due to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s public call for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its ultra-low interest rate policy. The government believes this accommodative stance is essential to underpin economic growth and support a gradual rise in inflation.

This puts the government at odds with the central bank. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a more balanced tone, noting that consumption remains stable amid rising household incomes and a tight labour market. He observed that core inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, a development that would justify an early policy tightening.

This creates a visible and rare public imbalance between the dovish government’s fiscal priorities and the central bank’s potential inclination towards monetary normalisation.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a growth wave to 155.00 and a subsequent correction to 153.63. The pair is now forming a tight consolidation range around this support level. An upward breakout from this range is expected to initiate the next leg of the rally, targeting 155.15 as an initial objective. This bullish scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating sustained positive momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair reached a local high at 155.00 and completed a corrective structure to 153.63. A fresh growth impulse to 154.66 has since been completed, forming a new compact consolidation range. An upward breakout from this range is anticipated, opening the path for a move towards a minimum target of 155.75. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook. Its signal line is above 50 and rising sharply towards 80, reflecting strong short-term bullish momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to climb, driven by a fundamental divergence between a dovish Japanese government and the BoJ, which is cautiously laying the groundwork for a future rate hike. Technically, the structure remains firmly bullish. The completion of the recent correction suggests the pair is poised for further gains, with immediate targets at 155.15 and 155.75.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair declined to 1.3149 on Friday, hovering near a seven-month low. The sell-off was triggered by the government’s abrupt abandonment of plans to raise income tax rates ahead of the Autumn Statement on 26 November.

According to the Financial Times, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have scrapped the previously debated increases to basic and higher tax rates. Instead, they will seek more indirect measures to address a budget deficit estimated at £30 billion.

This policy reversal has sparked significant market anxiety over the new cabinet’s fiscal discipline and long-term strategy, leading to a broad sell-off in sterling-denominated assets and exerting upward pressure on government bond yields.

Moreover, recent macroeconomic data have been weak, further compounding the political unease. Third-quarter economic growth was muted, with monthly GDP contracting in September. This follows earlier reports showing unemployment rising to a four-year high and wage growth slowing to its weakest pace since early 2022. Consequently, market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in December have intensified.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has completed a corrective wave at 1.3215. A decline towards 1.3062 is anticipated, likely to be followed by a minor rebound to 1.3131. This level is expected to form resistance within a new consolidation range. A subsequent downward breakout from this range would signal a resumption of the primary downtrend, opening the path towards 1.2985, with a further potential decline to at least 1.2915. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line, while above zero, has diverged bearishly from its histogram, suggesting the recent corrective bounce has ended and a new downward impulse is forming.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.3153. We expect an initial decline to 1.3090, followed by a technical retracement to retest the 1.3153 level from below. This retest is likely to present a selling opportunity before the downtrend extends towards 1.3013. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view. Its signal line is deep in oversold territory at the 20 level, which, rather than suggesting a rebound, typically indicates sustained downward momentum in a strong trend.

Conclusion

The pound remains under heavy pressure, caught between political missteps that undermine fiscal credibility and a deteriorating economic backdrop that points to monetary easing. Technically, the pair maintains a clear bearish structure. Any near-term stability is likely to prove temporary, with the path of least resistance pointing towards a test of support at 1.2985 and potentially 1.2915.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is trading flat on Thursday, hovering around 1.1587, following the House of Representatives’ approval of a short-term budget bill that ends the longest US government shutdown in history.

The bill now awaits President Donald Trump’s signature – a formality that will allow shuttered government agencies to resume operations within days.

While the resolution clears the way for the publication of a backlog of delayed macroeconomic data, the White House has cautioned that key October reports on employment and inflation may still be withheld from the public.

Market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have moderated but persist. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut has eased to 60%, down from 67% the day before.

This cautious sentiment was fuelled earlier in the week by ADP data, which showed that the US private sector shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week throughout October, amplifying concerns over a cooling labour market.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed a corrective wave to 1.1605 and has formed a tight consolidation range below this resistance level. We anticipate a downward breakout from this range, triggering a decline towards an initial target of 1.1505. A breach of this level would open the path for a further extension of the downtrend to 1.1405. This bearish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero but has diverged from its histogram and is pointing decisively downward, suggesting the recent upward correction has run its course and bearish momentum is reasserting itself.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed a downward impulse to 1.1563, followed by a corrective bounce to 1.1597. These two levels define the upper and lower boundaries of a new consolidation range. A downward breakout is expected, leading to a resumption of the sell-off towards initial targets at 1.1538 and 1.1530. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view. Its signal line has turned down from below the 80 level and is falling steadily towards 20, indicating that short-term downward momentum is building.

Conclusion

While the end of the US government shutdown removes a key market overhang, the EUR/USD pair remains capped by underlying concerns about the US economy and a still-dovish Fed outlook. Technically, the structure points to a bearish resolution. The completion of the correction near 1.1605 suggests the pair is poised for a fresh leg lower, with key downside targets at 1.1505 and 1.1405.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair snapped a four-day winning streak, declining for a second day to trade around 1.3135. The sell-off was triggered by UK labour market data revealing a rise in unemployment and a deceleration in annual wage growth. These figures have bolstered market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could initiate interest rate cuts as early as December.

The shifting sentiment was reflected in government bonds, with the two-year gilt yield falling 6 basis points to 3.74%, its lowest level since August 2024.

Appetite for risk was mixed across asset classes. European stock indices managed gains, while S&P 500 futures edged down approximately 0.2%.

In currency markets, traders are increasingly pricing in a more dovish path for BoE policy. Current pricing implies roughly 21 basis points of cuts by December, with a total of up to 65 basis points of easing projected by the end of 2026. Economists suggest that, given the softening labour market and anticipated fiscal tightening, the BoE’s base rate could fall to 3.00% from the current 4.00%.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD broke upwards from a consolidation range around 1.3100, completing a corrective wave to 1.3185. We now anticipate a decline back towards the 1.3100 support level. A brief rebound to 1.3150 may follow, establishing a new consolidation range. A subsequent downward breakout from this range would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend, opening the path towards 1.3000, with a further potential decline to at least 1.2915. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero but has diverged from its histogram, suggesting the initial upward correction is exhausted and a new decline is beginning.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed an upward correction to 1.3188 after breaking from a range at 1.3100. A new downward wave is now developing, initially targeting 1.3108. Following this, a technical retracement to test 1.3150 from below is expected. Once this correction is complete, the downtrend is projected to extend towards 1.3050. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook. Its signal line is at the 20 level, indicating oversold conditions but also supporting the view that downward momentum is currently dominant.

Conclusion

The pound is weakening as soft labour market data fuels expectations of imminent BoE monetary easing. Technically, the pair appears to have completed a corrective bounce and is now poised to resume its primary downtrend. The immediate focus is on the 1.3100 support; a sustained break below this level would confirm a move towards 1.3000 and potentially lower.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair advanced to 154.36 on Tuesday, edging closer to a new ten-month peak. The rally was driven by growing market optimism that the protracted US government shutdown may soon conclude, dampening demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen.

In Japan, Economic Recovery Minister Minoru Kiuchi highlighted the domestic challenges posed by the currency’s weakness, warning that a soft yen risks amplifying inflationary pressures by increasing the cost of imports. He called for vigilant monitoring of the situation.

Concurrently, a draft of the government’s new economic stimulus plan—scheduled for approval on 21st November—reveals that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet will urge the Bank of Japan to prioritise economic growth alongside price stability. The programme is also set to feature tax breaks and investment incentives targeting 17 key industries.

This comes as the Bank of Japan’s October report reaffirmed its close watch on wage growth to determine the timing of its next potential rate hike. In a positive economic sign, the country registered a record current account surplus of ¥4.5 trillion in September, bolstered by robust export growth.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 153.80. We anticipate an upward expansion of this range towards 154.80. Following this, a pullback to retest the 153.80 level from above is expected. This would likely set the stage for the next leg of the uptrend, targeting 155.70. This bullish scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is firmly above zero and pointing upwards, indicating sustained positive momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed an initial growth impulse to 154.48. A near-term correction towards 153.65 is now expected. Once this corrective phase concludes, we anticipate the resumption of the broader upward trend, with the next primary target at 155.70. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view. Its signal line is below 50 and trending downwards towards 20, suggesting that short-term downward pressure (the expected correction) is building before the next potential upward wave.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues its ascent, propelled by renewed risk appetite and domestic Japanese policy that implicitly favours a weaker yen. While minor corrective dips are anticipated in the short term, the overall technical and fundamental backdrop remains bullish. The path of least resistance points towards a test of 155.70, provided the pair maintains its footing above key support near 153.80.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair retreated to 153.10 on Friday, with the yen retaining a portion of its recent gains amid a flight to safety. A sharp uptick in stock market volatility, driven by concerns over a potential overvaluation of artificial intelligence stocks, prompted investors to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets, thereby supporting the Japanese currency.

The pair faced additional pressure from a broadly weaker US dollar. Signs of a cooling US labour market have reinforced market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Domestic data from Japan presented a mixed picture. Consumer spending in September rose by a modest 1.8%, following a 2.3% increase in August and falling short of the 2.5% forecast. While nominal wage growth accelerated to 1.9%, real household incomes continued their decline, falling 1.4% year-on-year. This marks the ninth consecutive month of decline in real incomes, highlighting the persistent squeeze on purchasing power.

In light of this, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank’s wage growth forecast for 2026 will be a critical determinant for resuming rate hikes. For now, the BoJ maintains its accommodative stance, leaving monetary policy unchanged.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around 153.33. We anticipate a near-term expansion of this range to the downside, targeting 152.20. Following this, the primary scenario involves an upward breakout, initiating a new bullish wave towards 155.70. An alternative downward breakout would signal a deeper correction towards 149.90 before any sustained recovery can begin. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line below zero and pointing downward, confirming the current corrective momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is completing a corrective rise to test 153.50 from below. A tight consolidation range is forming around this level. We expect this range to break downwards initially, with a first target at 152.52. A rebound to 153.50 may follow. The broader trajectory hinges on the subsequent breakout. An upward breakout opens the path to 155.70, while a downward breakout would likely extend the correction towards 149.90. The Stochastic oscillator on the H1 offers a conflicting short-term signal. Its signal line is above 50 and rising towards 80, suggesting the potential for limited near-term upside before the next directional move.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is caught between a weaker US dollar and mixed domestic signals from Japan. The immediate driver is risk sentiment, which has provided the yen with temporary support. Technically, the pair is in a consolidation phase, with a near-term bias for a dip towards 152.20. The medium-term outlook, however, remains tentatively bullish, targeting 155.70, contingent on a successful upside breakout from the current range.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair is attempting to find support around 1.3062 on Thursday, with investors cautiously positioning themselves ahead of today’s pivotal Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting. The British currency remains under pressure, trading near a seven-month low against the US dollar and at its weakest level in over two years against the euro.

Market pricing currently implies roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the BoE. This uncertainty creates significant asymmetric risk, meaning the pound is poised for a sharp move in either direction once the decision and accompanying statement are released.

The pound’s weakness was compounded by the recent release of softer-than-expected UK inflation data, which bolstered expectations for an imminent shift towards policy easing. A simultaneous global sell-off in equity markets, particularly in the tech sector, has further dampened sentiment by reducing appetite for risk-sensitive assets such as sterling.

Adding to the headwinds, investor focus is shifting to the UK budget, due for approval later this month. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has signalled the potential for tax rises, a measure that could stifle economic growth and potentially prompt the BoE to adopt a more dovish stance – another factor weighing on the currency.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD broke downwards from a consolidation range around 1.3140, completing a bearish wave to 1.3010. We now anticipate a technical correction towards 1.3090. Following this pullback, the primary downtrend is expected to resume, with the next key targets at 1.2910 and, ultimately, 1.2811. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook. While its signal line is at deeply oversold levels and has diverged from its histogram, suggesting the potential for a short-term corrective rise, the overall structure remains negative.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair similarly broke down from a range around 1.3157, reaching the 1.3010 target. A corrective retracement to test 1.3100 from below is now expected. Once this correction is complete, the downtrend is likely to extend towards at least 1.2950. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view. Its signal line is in overbought territory above 80 and appears poised to turn down towards 20, indicating that any near-term strength is likely corrective before selling pressure reasserts itself.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is stabilising at multi-month lows ahead of a high-stakes BoE meeting. The combination of dovish inflation data, a risk-off market mood, and looming fiscal uncertainty has created a profoundly negative backdrop for sterling. Technically, the path of least resistance remains downward. While a short-covering bounce back towards 1.3100 is possible post-decision, the broader trend suggests further losses, with key targets at 1.2910 and 1.2811.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is declining for a fourth consecutive session, edging closer to the 1.1532 level. Investor sentiment remains cautious as markets digest recent trade developments and await a slew of high-impact economic data.

Over the weekend, the White House announced a de-escalation in trade tensions with China. Beijing has agreed to suspend additional export restrictions on rare earth metals and end investigations into US semiconductor companies. In return, the US will freeze certain existing tariffs and cancel a planned 100% tariff hike on Chinese exports. This decision follows last week’s summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which aimed to stabilise bilateral relations.

Meanwhile, the protracted US government shutdown continues to delay the release of official key statistics, notably employment data. In their absence, market participants will seek guidance from private-sector indicators due in the coming days, including the ADP employment report, the ISM Services PMI, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

This comes after the Federal Reserve’s expected 25-basis-point rate cut last week. Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance, emphasising that a follow-up cut in December is not a foregone conclusion – a message that has provided underlying support for the US dollar.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 1.1569. A subsequent downward breakout completed a bearish wave to 1.1521, and the pair is now consolidating above this local low.

A technical rebound to retest 1.1569 from below is a possibility. However, with bearish momentum still intact, we anticipate a further decline towards 1.1500 following any such pullback. The broader target for this move is 1.1488, which is viewed as the first leg of the third and typically strongest wave within the prevailing downtrend. The MACD indicator confirms this outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing decisively downward, reflecting sustained selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair broke downwards from a consolidation range around 1.1566, achieving its initial target at 1.1495. Once this level is reached, a corrective bounce towards 1.1533 is likely before the resumption of the downtrend towards 1.1468.

This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and is falling confidently towards the 20 zone, indicating that short-term downward momentum remains dominant.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under clear selling pressure, with a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions and a cautiously hawkish Fed stance providing a supportive backdrop for the US dollar. Technically, the structure is bearish, suggesting that any near-term rebounds are likely to be corrective within a broader downtrend, with key downside targets at 1.1488 and 1.1468.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to a nine-month high on Friday, approaching the key 154.00 level. The yen concluded October with losses of approximately 4%, marking a highly unsuccessful month. The currency’s decline was exacerbated by domestic political shifts, following the election of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister. Takaichi is a known advocate for stimulative fiscal policy and the maintenance of ultra-loose monetary conditions—a combination that typically weighs on a currency.

This dovish political backdrop was complemented by the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold interest rates steady in October. Governor Kazuo Ueda further dampened sentiment by warning that tighter global trade conditions could stifle economic growth and reduce corporate profits.

In a notable shift, the new Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, clarified that she no longer views a yen exchange rate of 120-130 per dollar as appropriate. She emphasised that currency stability is now her primary focus, a comment markets interpreted as a step back from direct intervention.

The yen also faced pressure from a broadly strengthening US dollar. Market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts have receded, while data showing higher-than-expected inflation in Tokyo for October complicated the domestic policy outlook.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has completed a bullish wave structure, reaching 154.40. The pair is now likely to enter a period of consolidation at these highs. A decisive downward breakout from this range would signal the start of a correction, with an initial target at 151.88. Conversely, an upward breakout would open the path for the next leg of the rally towards 155.70.

This technical outlook is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line remains above zero and is pointing firmly upwards, confirming the underlying bullish momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market completed an initial growth wave to 153.33, formed a tight consolidation range, and then broke upwards to achieve its local target of 154.40. Following this peak, a pullback towards at least 153.33 is anticipated. Upon finding support, the next upward wave is expected to target 154.83, with the potential to extend the broader bullish trend towards 155.15.

The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view. Its signal line is above 50 and rising sharply towards 80, indicating that short-term bullish momentum remains intact.

Conclusion

The yen’s sharp decline in October was driven by a perfect storm of domestic political and monetary dovishness, coupled with a resurgent US dollar. Technically, USD/JPY’s bullish structure is firmly established. While a short-term correction is possible, the path of least resistance remains skewed to the upside, with key targets at 155.70 on the H4 chart. All eyes will be on whether Japanese authorities will transition from verbal intervention to concrete action if the yen’s weakness persists.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating around the 1.3200 level on Thursday, following significant losses in the previous session. The pair is now trading near its lowest point since April 2025, with selling pressure intensifying after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. While delivering the expected cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a hawkish note by stressing that further easing this year is not guaranteed, bolstering the US dollar.

The pound faces its own set of domestic headwinds. Mounting expectations of a Bank of England rate cut, combined with concerns over the upcoming November budget, are weighing on sentiment. During parliamentary hearings, Prime Minister Keir Starmer refused to rule out potential rises in income tax, national insurance, and VAT.

Further compounding the issue, press reports suggest the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) plans to lower its productivity growth forecast by approximately 0.3 percentage points. Such a revision could create a budget deficit of around £20 billion.

Softer-than-expected inflation data and a reported decline in food prices by the BRC have reinforced the market’s view that the Bank of England is moving closer to easing monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is developing a bearish wave structure targeting 1.3111. We anticipate the pair reaching this level before forming a consolidation range around it. Critically, this move is considered the third and typically powerful wave within the broader downtrend, with the 1.3111 target representing only its initial phase. Following consolidation, we expect a downward breakout and a continuation of the sell-off to at least 1.2830. This bearish scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing decisively downward, indicating sustained selling momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed a downward impulse to 1.3193 and formed a consolidation range, which has since expanded down to 1.3139. We now foresee a technical retest of 1.3217 from below, after which a further decline towards 1.3111 is expected. A decisive break below this support level would open the path for a move down to at least 1.3015. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line having turned down from below the 80 level and heading towards 20, reflecting building bearish momentum in the short term.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is stabilising after a sharp drop, but the fundamental and technical backdrop remains bearish. Hawkish Fed rhetoric and a dovish shift in BoE expectations, alongside worrying UK fiscal signals, suggest any recovery may be short-lived. The path of least resistance appears lower, with key technical targets at 1.3111 and 1.3015.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.