Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 7

AUD/USD Stabilises Near Monthly Low Amid Mixed Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair has halted its nearly continuous seven-day decline, stabilising around 0.6730 on Thursday. This level marks the monthly low for the Australian dollar, which has faced significant pressures lately due to a strengthening US dollar and uncertainties in China, Australia’s largest trading partner.

Market influences and economic indicators

The recent US jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes have led investors to reassess their expectations for future US rate cuts, affecting the currency pair. Additionally, no new stimulus measures have been announced in China, impacting sentiment, given that earlier stimulative actions are still not fully reflected in the economic performance.

In Australia, inflation expectations have decreased to a three-year low of 4% in October, providing a somewhat positive signal. However, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest meeting revealed discussions around both potential rate cuts and hikes, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook. The RBA concluded that the current interest rate appropriately balances the risks associated with inflation and labour market conditions.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair recently completed a downward wave to 0.6707 and is now forming a consolidation range above this level. If the pair breaks downwards, it could target a further decline to 0.6682. Conversely, an upward break might lead to a corrective move towards 0.6796. After this correction, the downward trend could continue towards 0.6655. The MACD indicator supports a bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and trending downwards.

On the hourly chart, the pair is consolidating around 0.6734. An upward breakout could lead to a rise towards 0.6815. Following this, a new downward phase could begin, potentially reaching 0.6710. If this level is breached, the decline could extend towards 0.6682. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and poised to move downwards, aligns with this potential downward trajectory.

Conclusion

Investors and traders should closely monitor further developments from both the Federal Reserve and the RBA, as well as any new economic data from China, which could significantly influence the direction of the AUD/USD pair. The complex interplay of US monetary policy expectations, Chinese economic actions, and domestic Australian economic indicators will likely continue to drive volatility in the currency pair.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USDInd: Eyes 100-day SMA ahead of US CPI data

By ForexTime

  • USDInd ↑ 2% in October
  • Traders pricing in 85% prob of Fed cut in November
  • Over past year, US CPI triggered ↑ 0.8% & ↓ 0.6%
  • Technical levels – 100 & 200-day SMA

Dollar bulls continue to dominate the G10 space, crushing all obstacles.

A mixture of geopolitical risk and cooling Fed cut bets continue to support upside gains.

USD

And the dollar could see more volatility this afternoon thanks to the incoming US inflation data.

US inflation is expected to cool further in September, supporting expectations around lower US interest rates. However, last Friday’s strong jobs data has extinguished hopes around another jumbo-sized cut by the Fed.

In fact, traders are now pricing in an 85% probability of a 25-basis point cut by November with a 77% probability of another 25bp cut by December.

wirp

Beyond the CPI report, it will be wise to keep an eye on other US data and speeches by numerous Fed officials which could provide more clues on the Fed’s policy path.

Golden nugget: Over the past 12 months, the US CPI report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.8% of declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Taking a look at the charts, the USDInd is firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices hitting a fresh two month high. The index has gained roughly 2% since the start of October, taking its YTD gains to 1.6%.

After shedding almost 5% in Q3, dollars bulls could stage a return this quarter if bets around lower US interest rates continue to fall.

Since securing a solid close above 101.94, bulls have their eyes on the 100-day SMA at 103.30. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signalling that prices are near overbought territory.

  • A hotter-than-expected US CPI report that dampens Fed cut bets may push the dollar higher. Key levels of interest can be found at 103.30 and the 200-day SMA at 103.80.
  • A cooler than expected US CPI report may move prices back below 101.94.

Dollar Index


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NZD/USD Hits Seven-Week Low Amid Ongoing Sell-off and RBNZ Rate Cuts

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The NZD/USD pair has dropped to a seven-week low, touching 0.6091, as the sell-off that started on 1 October continues to intensify. The New Zealand dollar’s weakness is largely attributed to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) recent decisions to lower interest rates in response to decreasing inflation pressures.

The RBNZ has implemented consecutive rate cuts, most recently reducing the key rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% per annum, following a similar reduction in August. These measures aim to anchor inflation within the target range of 1-3%, with upcoming consumer price data anticipated to potentially show inflation consolidating around 2%, aligning well with the RBNZ’s objectives.

Globally, the focus is on the upcoming publication of the latest US Federal Reserve meeting minutes. These minutes are highly scrutinised as they provide crucial insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy direction. Market participants often use this information to gauge the likelihood of further Fed-rate adjustments, which, in turn, influences global currency dynamics.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

The NZD/USD market has reached the forecasted target of the downward wave at 0.6080. Currently, a new consolidation phase is expected to form above this level. If there is an upward breakout, a corrective movement towards 0.6230 could occur. Following this correction, the potential for a further decline to 0.5944 may be considered. Alternatively, if the consolidation resolves downwards, the downward trend could continue towards 0.5944. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with the signal line positioned below zero and trending downwards.

On the hourly chart, after forming a consolidation range around 0.6126, the pair achieved the downward wave target at 0.6080 with a downward exit. An upward movement to 0.6126 is expected today, followed by a retest of 0.6100. The market may develop a new consolidation range at these levels. An upward breakout could initiate a corrective rally towards 0.6230, considered a corrective response to the recent downward trend. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 20 and pointing upwards, suggests a potential for upward correction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD hits three-week low amid ECB easing expectations

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has descended to 1.1027, marking its lowest point in three weeks. The drop reflects market anticipation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to ease monetary policy aggressively, spurred by sluggish economic growth and inflation rates falling below the ECB’s 2% target in the Eurozone.

Recent data revealed that the Eurozone’s annual Consumer Price Index decreased to 1.8% in September, the lowest since April 2021 and below the forecasted 1.9%. Moreover, core inflation dipped to 2.7% year-on-year from 2.8%, contrary to expectations of remaining steady. These weaker-than-expected inflation figures have reinforced the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming ECB meeting in October, which would mark the third reduction in borrowing costs this year. The market currently places a 95% probability on a 25-basis-point cut.

Robust statistics from the US services sector have further pressured the EUR/USD exchange rate, adding to the euro’s woes.

With a significant day ahead, the focus is now on the US job market reports, including the unemployment rate, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), and average wages, which could further influence the pair’s movements.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair recently completed a downward wave to 1.1008, followed by a corrective rise to 1.1039. Today, the expectation is for a decline to 1.0982. After reaching this target, a potential corrective movement to 1.1066 may occur. Following this correction, another downward wave to 1.0966 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and trending downwards.

On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD continues to develop its third wave of decline towards 1.0982. The pair formed a consolidation range around 1.1046 and achieved a local target at 1.1008 with a downward exit. A corrective move up to 1.1045 is expected today, which will likely be tested from below. Following this correction, a continued decline to 1.0982 is anticipated. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this bearish scenario, with its signal line below 50 and poised to descend towards 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

NZD/USD Dips as Market Anticipates RBNZ Rate Cut

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The NZD/USD pair continues its downward trend, dropping to 0.6240 in its third consecutive session of declines. This ongoing sell-off in the New Zealand dollar is driven by market expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). New Zealand’s borrowing costs are currently at 5.25% per annum, with widespread anticipation of a 50-basis point reduction at the next RBNZ meeting.

The RBNZ is known for its proactive and flexible monetary policy, which swiftly adjusts to inflationary pressures and external economic indicators. This expected rate cut responds to such factors and aligns with the bank’s strategy to manage economic growth and inflation.

Moreover, the NZD has been under additional pressure from a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by unexpectedly robust US employment statistics for September, reported by ADP. Although the ADP report does not directly correlate with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due shortly, it still shapes market expectations and sentiment.

Global risk appetite has also waned significantly due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, further dampening the prospects for growth-sensitive currencies like the NZD.

NZD/USD technical analysis

The NZD/USD pair followed a bearish pattern, confirming a downward wave to 0.6265 and a corrective rise to 0.6313. The market is now forming a new decline towards 0.6210. Once this target is reached, a corrective move to retest 0.6265 from below may occur, potentially leading to further declines towards 0.6144. This bearish NZD/USD outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which, despite being above zero, shows a strong downward trajectory.

On the hourly chart, the pair is developing the third wave of its decline towards 0.6210. Following this, a corrective fourth wave up to 0.6260 is anticipated. This forecast aligns with the Stochastic oscillator readings, which indicate the signal line is below 50 and heading towards 20, suggesting a continuation of the downward momentum after a brief correction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Australian Dollar Reaches 19-Month High Boosted by Chinese Economic Stimulus and Weaker US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The AUD/USD pair climbed to 0.6922 on Monday, marking its highest point since February 2023. This surge was primarily triggered by China’s announcement of economic stimulus measures, which is significant given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner. Such support for the Chinese economy will likely increase demand for commodities and bolster major currencies tied to trade with China.

Additionally, the Australian dollar has benefited from the recent weakness in the US dollar, spurred by disappointing economic data from the US. This has heightened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will persist with rapid interest rate cuts.

At its September meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to maintain its interest rate at 4.35% per annum, suggesting that the current monetary policy might remain unchanged for some time. The RBA’s cautious approach reflects its strategy of closely monitoring inflation and employment trends without immediate concern about aligning its pace with other global central banks.

This week is set to be significant for the Australian dollar. Australia is scheduled to release data on retail sales, construction, and various trade indicators, which could influence the currency’s trajectory.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD market is extending the fifth wave of growth, with a consolidation range forming around the 0.6925 level. There is potential for an upward break targeting 0.6983. After reaching this level, a corrective movement to retest 0.6925 may occur. If the bullish momentum continues, the next wave could reach 0.7033. The MACD indicator supports this bullish scenario, with its signal line well above zero and upwards.

On the hourly chart, the AUD/USD has achieved a growth wave up to 0.6926 and is now consolidating just below this level. If the pair exits this range downward, a correction to 0.6877 could be expected. Conversely, a breakout above could extend the uptrend towards 0.6982, potentially reaching 0.7033. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80 and trending downward, suggests a short-term pullback might occur before further advances.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

US Dollar Index Speculator bets drop for 2nd week to lowest since April

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (28,874 contracts) with the British Pound (24,013 contracts), the Japanese Yen (9,171 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (7,561 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,703 contracts), the EuroFX (2,052 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (432 contracts) recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-4,956 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,182 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-839 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-573 contracts) round out the lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculator bets drop for 2nd week to lowest since April

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions declined for a second straight week and for sixth time out of the past ten weeks this week. This recent weakness has brought the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at just a total of +959 contracts) to the lowest level since April 30th, a span of 21 weeks.

The Dollar Index has been under pressure with the US Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by 50 basis points at the last central bank meeting to bring the current rate to a range of 4.75-5.00 percent. The CME Fedwatch tool shows at the current time, there is a 53.3 percent probability outlook that the Fed will cut the rate by another 50 basis points at the November 7th meeting while there is a 46.7 percent probability outlook of a 25 basis point reduction.

The US Dollar Index is currently at significant price levels and closed this week at 100.11. The 100.00 level has been a major support and resistance level in the past and also coincides with the 200-week moving average which is currently right around the 100.40 level. The Dollar Index has not traded consistently below the 200-week MA since 2021. A break below the 100.00 would see the 99.00 level come immediately into play which is also where the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement support level resides (from the January 2021 bottom to September 2022 high). Needless to say, these will likely be some important weeks coming for the USD and its future direction.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large speculators) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). CFTC criteria here.


Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (75 percent), Swiss Franc (62 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the 3-Year strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the Brazilian Real (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Mexican Peso (38 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (7.9 percent)
EuroFX (50.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (50.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (75.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (64.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (61.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (66.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (81.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (56.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (37.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (35.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (16.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (43.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.8 percent)


Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (51 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (26 percent), the EuroFX (19 percent) and the British Pound (18 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-29 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-37.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-30.6 percent)
EuroFX (19.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (17.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (10.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (51.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (26.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (0.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (27.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (28.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-28.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-22.7 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.125.57.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.622.114.6
– Net Position:959899-1,858
– Gross Longs:16,5246,8852,097
– Gross Shorts:15,5655,9863,955
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.1100.03.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.537.0-4.5

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 71,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.655.912.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.172.56.8
– Net Position:71,698-112,82841,130
– Gross Longs:187,795379,57787,312
– Gross Shorts:116,097492,40546,182
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.847.063.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.0-22.032.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 86,992 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.720.816.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.262.39.4
– Net Position:86,992-104,38317,391
– Gross Longs:155,32552,37440,935
– Gross Shorts:68,333156,75723,544
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.3 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.219.998.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.6-18.314.4

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.428.219.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.665.514.2
– Net Position:66,011-77,50811,497
– Gross Longs:104,69058,60640,901
– Gross Shorts:38,679136,11429,404
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.091.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-19.826.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -19,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.464.122.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.128.825.9
– Net Position:-19,29021,396-2,106
– Gross Longs:7,50138,88413,588
– Gross Shorts:26,79117,48815,694
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.834.467.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.8-8.011.5

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.971.814.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.643.812.0
– Net Position:-65,58959,7465,843
– Gross Longs:25,305153,06531,425
– Gross Shorts:90,89493,31925,582
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.640.848.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:51.1-49.921.2

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.433.119.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.835.810.9
– Net Position:-11,248-4,64415,892
– Gross Longs:81,92458,48835,139
– Gross Shorts:93,17263,13219,247
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.216.097.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.4-36.560.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.041.410.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.743.16.2
– Net Position:-1,458-9282,386
– Gross Longs:26,47522,8535,792
– Gross Shorts:27,93323,7813,406
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.153.983.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.2-32.445.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.156.93.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.965.04.2
– Net Position:12,426-10,852-1,574
– Gross Longs:51,48076,8164,127
– Gross Shorts:39,05487,6685,701
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.663.77.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.518.1-1.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.173.44.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.419.83.5
– Net Position:-37,26236,777485
– Gross Longs:13,84050,3962,883
– Gross Shorts:51,10213,6192,398
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.783.723.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.7-16.34.9

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -973 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.16.74.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:83.23.13.2
– Net Position:-1,5461,093453
– Gross Longs:23,8562,0331,433
– Gross Shorts:25,402940980
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 12.2 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.192.523.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.245.03.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

 

USD/JPY Stabilises Amid Bank of Japan’s Cautious Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has found a stable footing around 143.22 as investors carefully analyse the recent comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. His remarks suggest that the BoJ is taking a measured approach to monetary policy adjustments, signalling a possible delay in interest rate hikes.

Governor Ueda emphasised the need to thoroughly analyse market and economic conditions before making policy decisions, indicating that immediate rate hikes are unlikely. He also highlighted external risks, including financial market volatility and uncertainties surrounding the US economy, which are critical considerations for Japan’s monetary policy.

At its September meeting, the BoJ maintained the interest rate at 0.25% per annum, aligning with market expectations. Speculation suggests that the October meeting may not change the Monetary Policy Committee’s structure. Still, by December, the BoJ might gather sufficient evidence to justify a rate increase.

The recent dip in the US dollar, spurred by weak consumer confidence figures in the US, has incidentally strengthened the yen. This shift has heightened expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is currently in a broad consolidation range centred around 143.43, extending to 144.66. The market has initiated a downward movement towards 142.55, testing this level from above. Subsequently, we anticipate a rebound to the upper boundary of this range. A breach above 144.70 could pave the way for a rise to 145.77, potentially extending to 146.66. Conversely, a decline to 142.00 and a subsequent breakdown could signal a trend continuation towards 137.77. The MACD indicator supports this bullish scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero and pointing upwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has crafted a consolidation range around 143.60, achieving the 142.90 local downside target. The pair is now moving upward towards 143.60, testing this level from below. The current setup suggests a retest of 143.60 could be followed by a new decline towards 142.55. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards, corroborates this potential for a brief uptick followed by a continued downward trajectory.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

AUD/USD Reaches Yearly High Amid Positive Stimulus News from China

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The AUD/USD pair tested the 0.6860 mark on Tuesday, reaching its highest point in 2024, bolstered by supportive economic news from China. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced stimulus measures to boost the Chinese economy. These measures positively influence the Australian dollar due to the close economic ties between Australia and China.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain its interest rate, reflecting mixed sentiment among market participants regarding the future rate trajectory. According to a recent Reuters poll of 44 economists, only four anticipate a rate cut by year-end. However, investors assign a 60% probability of a rate reduction in December.

So far, the RBA has maintained a conservative stance regarding inflation and economic activity, believing that the economy can self-adjust without intervention. Nonetheless, the global trend towards rate cuts initiated by central banks, such as the Fed and the ECB, may influence the RBA’s perspective in the future.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The AUD/USD has completed the fifth wave of growth, reaching a target of 0.6864. Currently, a potential initial wave of decline to 0.6740 is being considered. After reaching this level, a corrective move to 0.6803 could occur, marking the upper limits of a new consolidation range. A downward exit from this range might lead to further declines towards 0.6740, with a potential continuation down to 0.6677 and possibly extending to 0.6616. The MACD indicator, currently at its peak, suggests an impending decline, supporting this bearish outlook.

On the H1 chart, the AUD/USD is forming a downward structure targeting 0.6805. Subsequently, a narrow consolidation range may develop, with a potential downward breakout leading to further declines towards 0.6744. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line currently above 80 but poised to move downward sharply.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Currency Speculators pared back bets before Fed Interest Rate Reduction

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by the Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Swiss Franc (4,196 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,425 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (1,070 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-27,309 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-26,080 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-19,303 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-18,412 contracts), the EuroFX (-11,787 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,197 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,942 contracts) and Bitcoin (-620 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators pared back bets before Fed Interest Rate Reduction

Highlighting the COT data for the week was the sharp pullback in positions for most of the major currencies. The COT data is updated through Tuesday, September 17th which was one day before the Federal Reserve decreased the US interest rate by 50 basis points. The uncertainty of the Fed meeting outcome spurred speculators to reduce their positions and this can be seen by the strong decline in the open interest levels this week. Open interest measures the amount of open positions in the market and a fall in open interest means those positions were closed out or found an offsetting buyer or seller. Many of the major currencies experienced the largest open interest decreases of the year on Tuesday.

Weekly Forex Roundup:

The US dollar index saw the fourth highest weekly decline in speculator bets on record this week with a shortfall by -18,412 contracts. This broke a three-week streak of rising bullish positions and drops the overall bullish level back to just +1,798 contracts – the lowest level since May. The dollar index exchange rate is hovering around the significant level of 100.00 with this week’s close at 100.74 and has decreased in seven out of the past eight weeks.

The Australian dollar speculators dropped their bets by over -26,000 contracts this week to bring the total spec standing to -40,122 contracts. The AUD speculator standing remains bearish but has come off the lows of earlier in the year. The AUD positioning had fallen to a record bearish level in March at a total of -107,538 contracts before turning around. The AUD exchange rate has been bouncing around in a range approximately between 0.60 and 0.70 for the past few years and is currently near the top of that range at 0.6807 this week.

The British pound sterling bets dropped by -27,309 contracts this week following a decline by -17,790 contracts last week. The overall position remains bullish with a total standing of +62,979 contracts this week. The GBP positioning has had a strong bullish tilt this year and hit an all-time record high position in July at a total of +142,183 contracts. The GBP exchange versus the USD has been on the rise as well with the GBP hitting the highest level since 2022 with a close at 1.3322 this week. The GBP is now up over 25 percent from the low-point reached in September of 2022.

The Mexican peso positioning fell sharply this week by over -18,000 contracts. The peso speculator positions have been deteriorating sharply since June and have now fallen for eleven straight weeks through Tuesday. From March 5th to June 11th, the peso spec standing had been over +100,000 contracts in each of those fifteen weeks. Since then, peso bets have declined and now stand at just +7,723 contracts which is the lowest level since March 7th of 2023, a span of eighty weeks. The peso exchange rate has been on the downtrend since hitting an almost decade high in April of this year. The peso has fallen by approximately fifteen percent since the April high and has declined for four out of the past five weeks.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by the Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) led the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (66 percent), the British Pound (64 percent), Australian Dollar (57 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (55 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (8 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Brazilian Real (21 percent), the Mexican Peso (35 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (7.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.1 percent)
EuroFX (50.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (55.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (64.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (76.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (66.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (57.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (55.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (56.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (78.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (35.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (44.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (23.3 percent)
Bitcoin (51.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (61.1 percent)


Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (49 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (28 percent), the Brazilian Real (21 percent) and the EuroFX (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-28 percent), Bitcoin (-23 percent) and the British Pound (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-30.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.9 percent)
EuroFX (15.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-5.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-9.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (53.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (10.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (26.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (15.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-28.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-19.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (10.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-22.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (9.8 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.222.07.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.921.615.4
– Net Position:1,79883-1,881
– Gross Longs:15,8975,4381,935
– Gross Shorts:14,0995,3553,816
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.9100.03.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.633.3-15.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 69,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.957.012.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.673.96.2
– Net Position:69,646-114,40244,756
– Gross Longs:182,281386,39686,454
– Gross Shorts:112,635500,79841,698
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.046.472.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-21.246.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.722.417.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.159.99.9
– Net Position:62,979-79,75116,772
– Gross Longs:124,82247,64537,880
– Gross Shorts:61,843127,39621,108
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.429.797.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.10.521.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.828.521.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.364.613.8
– Net Position:56,840-71,83914,999
– Gross Longs:97,33256,91542,545
– Gross Shorts:40,492128,75427,546
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.3-31.538.3

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -17,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.759.724.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.929.525.6
– Net Position:-17,10817,728-620
– Gross Longs:8,57934,98214,395
– Gross Shorts:25,68717,25415,015
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.228.474.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-18.629.3

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -73,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.477.112.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.950.610.6
– Net Position:-73,15068,0615,089
– Gross Longs:21,464197,83832,218
– Gross Shorts:94,614129,77727,129
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.244.245.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:48.6-48.326.2

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -40,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.850.116.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.431.311.4
– Net Position:-40,12231,9788,144
– Gross Longs:53,94185,06927,547
– Gross Shorts:94,06353,09119,403
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.841.276.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.1-8.835.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.146.311.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.946.87.0
– Net Position:-1,890-2622,152
– Gross Longs:20,75822,8135,579
– Gross Shorts:22,64823,0753,427
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.355.180.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.6-35.557.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,026 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.157.43.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.262.24.4
– Net Position:7,723-6,352-1,371
– Gross Longs:48,48674,9414,349
– Gross Shorts:40,76381,2935,720
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.365.98.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.327.5-0.3

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,364 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.969.14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.320.64.0
– Net Position:-32,30632,321-15
– Gross Longs:15,91346,0772,665
– Gross Shorts:48,21913,7562,680
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.479.520.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.4-20.4-4.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.05.04.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.13.12.8
– Net Position:-973596377
– Gross Longs:23,8661,5441,238
– Gross Shorts:24,839948861
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.879.921.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.733.54.5

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.