InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

GBP/USD fell for the fifth consecutive day, reaching 1.3445. The slowdown in headline price growth has boosted expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Bank of England, although underlying price pressures remain robust.

Annual inflation in January slowed to 3.0% from 3.4% in December, in line with forecasts. However, inflation in the services sector, which reflects domestic price pressures, only fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, above the expected 4.3%. This partly supported the pound. Earlier, sterling had fallen after weak labour data raised expectations of a rate cut.

According to Chris Turner, Head of Global Research at ING, the market had been counting on a more pronounced slowdown in inflation, but the data were not unambiguously weak. A better-than-expected figure for services gave sterling “only limited respite.”

Investors now price the chance of a 25bp rate cut by the Bank of England next month at around 85%. By the end of the year, the market fully prices in two 25bp reductions.

The political situation remains an additional factor of uncertainty. The upcoming parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester could reignite discussions about Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership in the event of a Labour defeat. According to ING, a major loss for the party could increase pressure on the pound and the government bond market.

Technical Analysis

The H4 chart maintains a pronounced downtrend. After a series of lower highs, the pair broke through the 1.3490–1.3500 zone and accelerated its decline to 1.3430–1.3440. The price moves along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, confirming the dominance of sellers.

Local rebound attempts remain weak and are quickly sold into. The nearest resistance stands at 1.3490–1.3520, followed by 1.3660. Support is at 1.3430; a break below would open the path to further losses.

The H1 time frame shows a sharp sell-off on 19 February, followed by narrow consolidation at the lows. The Bollinger Bands have begun to narrow, suggesting volatility is easing after the recent sharp move.

The price is holding near 1.3430–1.3450. A sustained move above 1.3490 would allow for a more pronounced corrective pullback. The bearish scenario remains intact while the pair trades below 1.3490.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD remains entrenched in a sustained downtrend, extending its losing streak to five sessions. While headline inflation softened as expected, sticky services inflation and resilient underlying pressures complicate the BoE’s policy calculus. The market remains firmly priced for a March rate cut, with political risks adding to the uncertainty. Technically, the pair has breached key support and trades with a clear bearish bias. Any corrective bounces are likely to be capped near 1.3490–1.3520, with a break below 1.3430 opening the door to deeper losses. The near-term outlook remains firmly negative unless prices can reclaim the 1.3490 level.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD on Thursday stabilised at 1.1792 after a sharp decline the day before. The US dollar was supported by strong US macro data and unexpectedly tough signals from the Fed.

The minutes of the previous meeting showed that disagreements remain within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of rates. This suggests that it may not be easy for the new chair to implement a rate cut. Some members had previously explicitly admitted the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains above target.

The market has slightly reduced expectations for policy easing this year, but still prices in two 25-basis-point cuts before the end of the year.

Additional support for the dollar was provided by industrial production data. It grew at the highest rate in almost a year. Orders for core capital goods exceeded forecasts, and the number of new home mortgages reached a five-month high.

PMI indices and GDP data are due next, which may provide additional guidance on the path of interest rates.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD stays close to 1.1790–1.1800 after breaking support at 1.1885 and accelerating the decline. The price has firmed below the Bollinger Bands’ midline; the bands have widened, indicating bearish momentum. The MACD is in negative territory; the histogram is deepening further, reinforcing downward momentum. The Stochastic oscillator has rebounded from oversold. Against this background, a brief correction is possible, but the structure remains weak. The nearest support is at 1.1765, and resistance is at 1.1885.

On the lower H1 time frame, a sharp downward move is visible, followed by local stabilisation. The price is forming a small bounce off 1.1780 but remains below the Bollinger Bands’ middle line. The MACD remains negative, although the pressure is gradually decreasing. The Stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone, suggesting that any corrective rebound could fade in the 1.1820–1.1840 area.

The overall picture points to a short-term rebound within a broader bearish move.

Conclusion

In summary, EUR/USD remains under decisive pressure following hawkish Fed signals and resilient US economic data. The technical breakdown below key support has confirmed a bearish shift, with momentum indicators favouring further downside despite oversold conditions. The current stabilisation appears corrective rather than reversal, with any bounce likely capped near 1.1820–1.1840. Upcoming US PMI and GDP releases will shape the near-term direction. A break below 1.1765 would open the door to deeper losses towards 1.1700, while a sustained move above 1.1885 is needed to alleviate bearish pressure.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY rose to 153.50 on Wednesday. The yen gave up some of the gains from the previous session, despite strong foreign trade statistics.

Japan’s exports rose at their fastest pace in more than three years in January, driven by robust demand for AI-related chips. This data increased expectations of continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan.

At the same time, weak fourth-quarter GDP, which came in below forecasts and narrowly avoided a technical recession, is restraining optimism.

Investors believe Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s economic policy could support growth and indirectly strengthen the case for a gradual rate hike. The market is now pricing in the possibility of a tightening policy in April.

The IMF has previously stated that it does not set a specific target level for the yen, believing instead that the exchange rate is determined by market factors.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has entered a consolidation phase following a sharp drop from 157.50–158.00. The price is currently held in the range of 152.25–153.80. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed markedly, indicating that volatility is declining and the market is forming a base. The 153.80–153.95 area represents the nearest resistance. Support stands at 152.25. As long as the price remains below 153.80, the structure remains neutral to bearish.

On the shorter H1 time frame, there is a short-term local rebound from 152.80–153.00 with an attempt to exit towards the upper limit of the range. The price is approaching 153.90, where strong intraday resistance is forming. A break above 153.95 would open the way towards 154.60. Failure to break resistance could bring the pair back to 153.00 and then on to 152.25.

Overall, the market is compressing ahead of a potential move. A breakout of the range will set the direction for the next motion.

Conclusion

In summary, USD/JPY remains caught between conflicting fundamental factors: robust export data support BoJ normalisation expectations, but weak GDP and political uncertainty limit yen strength. Technically, the pair is coiling within a tightening range, signalling an imminent directional breakout. The neutral-bearish bias persists as long as the price holds below 153.80–153.95 resistance. A clear break above this level would target 154.60, while failure could trigger a retest of 152.25 support. With the BoJ’s April policy meeting in focus, the next significant move awaits a fresh catalyst.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EURUSD is moving smoothly downward and has touched 1.1840. Investors are preparing for the release of key US statistics that could affect expectations for the Fed’s future policy.

The focus is on the minutes of the last Fed meeting, a preliminary estimate of GDP, and the PCE core inflation index. The latter is a key policy gauge for the regulator.

The dollar came under pressure last week following softer inflation data, which increased expectations of rate easing in the second half of the year. However, a strong labour market report – showing the highest employment growth in more than a year and an unexpected decline in unemployment – pointed to the resilience of the economy.

The market is now pricing in the first rate cut in June. Overall, around 62 basis points of easing are expected for 2026, corresponding to two 25 bp reductions and roughly a 50% probability of a third step.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 time frame, EURUSD is consolidating after pulling back from January highs. The range has expanded, but the price is gradually moving towards its lower limit. The key level stands at 1.1835, an intermediate support within the wider range of 1.1765–1.2000. If it holds, sideways movement with attempts to correct upward is likely to persist. A break below 1.1835 would open the way to 1.1765. A return above 1.1890–1.1900 would ease bearish pressure and return the pair to the middle of the range.

Short-term downward pressure remains on the H1 chart for EURUSD. The price consistently forms lower highs and lows, trading near the bottom of the Bollinger Bands. The middle line acts as dynamic resistance.

The Stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone, which allows for local rebounds, but the MACD remains in negative territory – momentum is still on the side of sellers. The nearest support is at 1.1835. Securing below it would intensify the decline towards 1.1810–1.1800. Resistance stands at 1.1860–1.1870.

Conclusion

In summary, EURUSD remains under steady selling pressure as markets await pivotal US data that will shape Fed expectations. The pair is testing critical support at 1.1835, with technical indicators confirming bearish momentum despite oversold conditions. The fundamental picture is mixed: softer inflation points to eventual Fed easing, but robust employment data complicates the timeline. The near-term direction hinges entirely on today’s releases. A break below 1.1835 would likely accelerate losses towards 1.1765, while a rebound above 1.1890–1.1900 could signal a temporary respite. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1868, remaining within a narrow sideways range for the fourth consecutive session. The market has adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of January’s US consumer price index. The report could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Forecasts suggest a slowdown in headline inflation to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.7%, while core inflation is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.6%.

Earlier in the week, strong employment data confirmed the resilience of the labour market, although recent jobless claims came in higher than expected. Investors are now pricing in rates remaining unchanged in March, followed by two 25-basis-point cuts in the second half of the year, in June and September.

The broader backdrop for EUR/USD remains clear: most Fed officials have adopted a wait-and-see stance and are not ready to resume rate cuts imminently. Despite previous easing and the current rate range of 3.50-3.75%, inflation remains below 3%, and the economy continues to demonstrate stability. January’s employment data only strengthens the case for a pause.

While some Fed policymakers support further easing, they remain in the minority. The market is shifting expectations for the first cut closer to July. For EUR/USD, this maintains structural support for the dollar. The pair’s next move will depend on inflation and signs of a real cooling in the US economy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD remains in a sideways consolidation phase following January’s upward momentum. The price is held within the 1.1785-1.1930 range and is currently trading near 1.1870. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, signalling declining volatility. The MACD is hovering near the zero line, indicating weak momentum, while the Stochastic oscillator remains neutral, without a clear directional signal. The market is trading in the middle of the range.

On the H1 chart, price action reflects a tight consolidation with occasional volatility spikes. Buyers quickly absorbed the latest downward move, but attempts to break above 1.1925 have failed. The price has stabilised near the midline of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD remains close to zero, and the Stochastic oscillator is turning lower in neutral territory. In the near term, range trading remains the preferred strategy.

Conclusion

In summary, EUR/USD remains in a state of consolidation, trapped in its narrowest range in weeks as markets await the crucial US inflation report. The pair is caught between two opposing forces: resilient US economic data and delayed Fed easing expectations (supporting the dollar), versus a relatively hawkish ECB stance and already priced-in policy divergence (supporting the euro).

Technically, compressed volatility and neutral indicators signal a breakout may be approaching, but its direction will depend entirely on tonight’s CPI outcome. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading would likely push the pair towards the lower boundary at 1.1785, while softer inflation could trigger a retest of resistance near 1.1930. Until then, the range remains the game.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD was trading at 1.3632 on Thursday. Sterling found an equilibrium point after volatility triggered by a stronger dollar following US labour market data.

The number of people employed in January increased by 130 thousand, marking the largest rise in more than a year. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%. Against this backdrop, investors have revised expectations for the Fed rate path. The market now fully prices in the first rate cut for July rather than June, and the probability of a move in March is estimated at less than 5%.

Partial support for the pound came from a decline in domestic political uncertainty. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer received the backing of key cabinet members and Labour Party representatives after the resignation of Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney amid the scandal surrounding Lord Peter Mandelson.

At the same time, market participants still expect further easing from the Bank of England. The regulator kept the rate at 3.75% but delivered softer guidance. It indicated that inflation could return to the 2% target from April.

Technical Analysis

The H4 chart for GBP/USD shows that after a brief rise to 1.3850, the pair entered a correction. A downward phase has formed, characterised by lower highs and lower lows. The price is now testing the 1.3580–1.3600 support zone. The Bollinger Bands are pointing downward, and volatility remains elevated. As long as the pair remains below 1.3710–1.3730, downside pressure is likely to persist.

On the lower H1 timeframe, a local recovery from 1.3580 is visible, but the structure remains neutral to bearish. The price is trading within the 1.3580–1.3650 range. The Bollinger Bands’ midline acts as short-term resistance. A sustained move above 1.3660 would open the way towards 1.3700. A move back below 1.3600 would increase the risk of a retest of recent lows.

Conclusion

In summary, GBP/USD has stabilised following a sharp repricing of Fed expectations triggered by robust US jobs data. The pair found technical equilibrium near key support, with political relief at home providing some offsetting support for sterling. However, the broader technical structure remains corrective and neutral-to-bearish, with resistance capping recovery attempts. The near-term direction hinges on two factors: whether the 1.3580–1.3600 support zone holds, and any further divergence in tone between a patient Fed and an increasingly dovish Bank of England. Until GBP/USD reclaims 1.3660–1.3700, downside risks remain elevated.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD rose to 1.1911 on Tuesday. Pressure on the USD increased amid concerns that external demand for dollar-denominated assets could decline significantly.

The reason behind this shift was reports suggesting that Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to reduce their holdings of US government bonds. This move could help diversify risks and mitigate the impact of uncertain US economic policies.

Investors are awaiting delayed reports on the US labour market and inflation this week. These figures could adjust expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett noted that the pace of US employment growth may slow in the coming months due to weaker labour and productivity growth.

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in March, with markets still pricing in two rate cuts for the remainder of the year.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart for EUR/USD, after a momentum rally in late January, the pair entered a phase of correction and consolidation. The price has recovered above the 1.1760 support level and is now testing the 1.1920-1.1950 area. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating stabilisation and preparation for the next move. The medium-term structure remains moderately bullish as long as prices stay above 1.1760.

On the shorter-term H1 time frame, upward momentum remains confined to the short term. The price is moving along the upper Bollinger band after a sharp upward acceleration. It is now consolidating just below resistance at 1.1920-1.1950. Oscillators are in the overbought zone, raising the risk of a pause or shallow pullback, although the overall structure remains intact.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is poised for gains, driven by concerns about USD demand and a cautious outlook for US economic growth. While short-term fluctuations are expected, the medium-term trend remains bullish as long as key support levels hold. Investors will be closely watching upcoming data on inflation and employment, which could influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY is down to 156.73 on Monday. The Japanese yen had earlier dropped to its lowest levels in almost two weeks after a landslide victory for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party in early elections to the lower house of parliament. The coalition is led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. However, demand for the yen returned shortly after.

Takaichi’s coalition won 352 of 465 seats in the House of Representatives, according to NHK. At the same time, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan itself secured a majority of 316 seats. The vote’s outcome provided the prime minister with a clear mandate to implement an expansive fiscal policy.

Markets regarded the result as a signal in favour of a softer budget line and possible tax breaks. This increased pressure on the yen and Japanese government bonds amid fears of a rise in the debt burden. At the same time, the results supported expectations of more favourable dynamics for the stock market.

A more conservative domestic agenda is now expected to advance, including stricter immigration policies and land ownership rules. All this adds uncertainty to the assessment of medium-term consequences for the economy and financial markets.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart for USD/JPY, following a sharp decline at the end of January, a local bottom formed in the 152.00-152.20 zone, from which the pair began to recover. This impulsive growth was accompanied by movement along the upper border of the Bollinger Bands. The price is now trading below recent highs and consolidating in the 155.80-157.70 range. Volatility has decreased, and the structure remains corrective. However, momentum weakened, and the market has entered a pause phase under resistance.

The H1 chart shows the development of lateral dynamics after growth, with the price hovering around the Bollinger Bands’ midline, and no new momentum forming. Selling pressure quickly cancelled attempts to move higher to 157.40-157.70, while support holds in the 155.50-155.80 region. The near-term trajectory appears neutral, with a balance between correction and attempts to continue the recovery.

Conclusion

In summary, USD/JPY is undergoing a corrective pullback as the market digests the political implications of Japan’s election outcome. While the landslide victory initially weakened the yen on expectations of expansive fiscal policy, a technical pause has followed. The pair is now consolidating, caught between the fundamental pressure from anticipated higher Japanese debt (bearish for JPY) and technical resistance. The near-term trajectory will depend on whether this consolidation leads to a continuation of the recovery or a deeper correction, with clarity on the new government’s fiscal measures serving as the next major catalyst.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.