Forex and Currency News

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EUR/USD Continues Downward Amid Economic Uncertainties

EUR/USD has sustained its position below the EMA-200 line, indicating a potential shift into a more defined downtrend. Recent comments from Raphael Bostic, head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, have influenced this movement. Bostic suggests a modest 25-basis-point cut in interest rates this year – contrary to earlier predictions of a more aggressive 50-point reduction. Federal Reserve officials have underscored that any policy easing would be contingent on upcoming economic data.

The dollar’s strength is further bolstered by the Empire Manufacturing Index for New York State, which sharply declined to -11.9 in October, a significant drop from 11.5 in September, marking the lowest level since May. This unexpected downturn, which contrasts with analyst expectations for a slight positive reading of 3.8, highlights a deterioration in regional manufacturing activity. While this data suggests potential headwinds for the US economy, it could paradoxically support the USD if it fuels speculation about a less aggressive rate-cutting strategy by the Fed.

Market participants eagerly anticipate further economic reports, including data on retail sales, industrial production, and the upcoming manufacturing data from FRB Philadelphia. These indicators will be crucial in painting a more comprehensive picture of the US consumer sector and overall industrial conditions, potentially guiding the next moves for EUR/USD.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD is entrenched downward, aiming for the 1.0777 target level. The currency pair is currently consolidating around 1.0888. A break below this consolidation to 1.0860 could further propel the pair towards 1.0777. Upon reaching this level, a corrective phase towards 1.0996 might be anticipated. The MACD indicator, positioned below zero and poised to reach new lows, supports this bearish outlook.

On the hourly chart, EUR/USD has formed a consolidation range just above 1.0888. A downward break from this range is expected, which could extend the decline towards 1.0857 and potentially continue the downtrend to 1.0777. This scenario is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and trending downwards towards 20, indicating the likelihood of continued bearish momentum.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Oct

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainties

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY has been struggling to break past the resistance level at 149.55 despite repeated attempts over the past five trading sessions. The Japanese yen remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve signals a more moderate approach to interest rate cuts in its upcoming meetings, contrasting with the broader expectations of more aggressive rate reductions.

Further complicating the currency dynamics, recent fiscal stimulus announcements from China have yet to manage to bolster market confidence. Over the weekend, China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an detailed plans for additional capital injections into state-owned banks and measures to support the property market. However, the lack of specific details regarding the spending amount and the precise nature of these measures left investors feeling uncertain about the effectiveness and scale of the proposed stimulus.

In Japan, dovish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and opposition from new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba against further rate hikes have added to the pressure on the yen. Earlier this month, Ishiba expressed concerns that the current economic conditions do not warrant additional rate increases. However, other senior officials later softened this stance, indicating some internal conflict or reassessment within the Japanese government regarding monetary policy.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is currently within a broad consolidation range around 149.22. The range has expanded to 149.96, and the market is now forming a downward movement towards 149.22, testing this level from above. If the market rebounds from here, we might see an ascent towards 150.22. A break above this level could signal a continuation towards 153.22. Conversely, a drop below 148.88 could lead to a further correction down to 147.47. The MACD indicator supports this view, with the signal line high above zero but starting to descend towards it, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

On the hourly chart, USD/JPY has completed a growth wave to 149.96 and is undergoing a correction to 149.22. Following this corrective phase, the market is expected to resume its upward trajectory towards 150.22. This movement aligns with the Stochastic oscillator’s current trajectory, which shows the signal line moving upwards from 50 towards 80, indicating potential for further gains in the short term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Oct

US Dollar Index Speculator bets fall for 4th straight week to 6-month low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (28,276 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,894 contracts), the Mexican Peso (2,894 contracts), Bitcoin (402 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (395 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-20,244 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-19,148 contracts), the EuroFX (-16,229 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,043 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-689 contracts) and the British Pound (-630 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculator bets fall for 4th straight week to 6-month low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decrease in the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions declined for a fourth straight week and have now dipped by a total of -22,099 net contracts over this 4-week period. This recent weakness has pushed the US Dollar Index speculator net position into an overall bearish position at a total of -1,889 contracts. The current speculator standing now resides at the lowest level since April 2nd, a span of 27 weeks.

The Dollar Index sentiment has been feeling the pressure over the past few months with US inflation steadily coming down since the highs of 2022 and with the government interest rates already in a cutting cycle. The US Federal Reserve reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points at the last central bank meeting and brought the current rate down to a range of 4.75-5.00 percent.

There was an expectation of another jumbo rate cut coming up but a recent strong jobs report combined with a recent sticky inflation report puts a higher probability now for a smaller rate cut or even the possibility of a Fed hold. The CME Fedwatch tool shows at the current time, there is a 89.5 percent probability outlook that the Fed will cut the rate by another 25 basis points at the November 7th meeting while there is also 10.5 percent probability outlook that the Fed will hold the rate steady next month.

Despite the recent sentiment deficit, the US Dollar Index price has had a strong couple of weeks after falling to and rebounding off the 100.15 level on September 27th. Including September 30th, the Dollar Index has risen in nine out of the past ten days and closed this week right below 103.00 at a close of 102.91. We will see if this strength in the USD continues and whether the Dollar Index can get over the 103.00 support/resistance barrier or perhaps, head back lower toward 100.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Japanese Yen (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (78 percent) and the Swiss Franc (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (37 percent), the Brazilian Real (43 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (43 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (37.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (43.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (78.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (78.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (88.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (55.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (54.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (56.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (86.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (44.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (45.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (44.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (42.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.8 percent)
Bitcoin (47.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (41 percent) and the Australian Dollar (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The New Zealand Dollar (18 percent), the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) and the Japanese Yen (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-23 percent), Bitcoin (-17 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-44.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-37.2 percent)
EuroFX (-22.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (5.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (42.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (37.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (18.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (30.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (40.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (12.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-16.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-21.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.6	23.5	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	13.6	13.7
– Net Position:	-1,889	2,542	-653
– Gross Longs:	15,016	6,016	2,869
– Gross Shorts:	16,905	3,474	3,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.3	40.0	7.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	57.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	68.7	7.2
– Net Position:	39,098	-74,895	35,797
– Gross Longs:	173,866	384,954	84,183
– Gross Shorts:	134,768	459,849	48,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	61.2	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	22.7	-15.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 93,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.6	21.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	63.4	9.1
– Net Position:	93,135	-108,008	14,873
– Gross Longs:	157,666	54,329	38,166
– Gross Shorts:	64,531	162,337	23,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.0	18.4	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.1	-0.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	37.4	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	56.6	17.6
– Net Position:	36,528	-37,659	1,131
– Gross Longs:	83,679	73,626	35,746
– Gross Shorts:	47,151	111,285	34,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	14.6	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-2.3	-10.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	69.7	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	27.1	24.8
– Net Position:	-22,459	27,158	-4,699
– Gross Longs:	7,619	44,473	11,109
– Gross Shorts:	30,078	17,315	15,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	43.8	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-0.5	-8.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -89,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	75.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.3	36.8	12.2
– Net Position:	-89,151	86,230	2,921
– Gross Longs:	21,643	168,983	30,344
– Gross Shorts:	110,794	82,753	27,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	51.6	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-8.2	-2.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.2	28.7	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	53.1	7.7
– Net Position:	33,422	-50,253	16,831
– Gross Longs:	111,561	59,057	32,659
– Gross Shorts:	78,139	109,310	15,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.3	-34.3	12.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	44.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	50.1	5.6
– Net Position:	1,281	-3,503	2,222
– Gross Longs:	26,287	25,088	5,417
– Gross Shorts:	25,006	28,591	3,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	49.2	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-20.4	19.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	53.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	74.3	4.2
– Net Position:	29,193	-27,901	-1,292
– Gross Longs:	55,327	73,035	4,374
– Gross Shorts:	26,134	100,936	5,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	55.6	9.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	0.7	0.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 28,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	50.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.1	33.3	3.9
– Net Position:	-9,979	9,637	342
– Gross Longs:	25,201	28,804	2,598
– Gross Shorts:	35,180	19,167	2,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	58.3	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.8	-40.5	1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	6.2	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.8	3.3	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,282	872	410
– Gross Longs:	24,233	1,827	1,250
– Gross Shorts:	25,515	955	840
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	85.5	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	25.1	2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

10 Oct

AUD/USD Stabilises Near Monthly Low Amid Mixed Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair has halted its nearly continuous seven-day decline, stabilising around 0.6730 on Thursday. This level marks the monthly low for the Australian dollar, which has faced significant pressures lately due to a strengthening US dollar and uncertainties in China, Australia’s largest trading partner.

Market influences and economic indicators

The recent US jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes have led investors to reassess their expectations for future US rate cuts, affecting the currency pair. Additionally, no new stimulus measures have been announced in China, impacting sentiment, given that earlier stimulative actions are still not fully reflected in the economic performance.

In Australia, inflation expectations have decreased to a three-year low of 4% in October, providing a somewhat positive signal. However, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest meeting revealed discussions around both potential rate cuts and hikes, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook. The RBA concluded that the current interest rate appropriately balances the risks associated with inflation and labour market conditions.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair recently completed a downward wave to 0.6707 and is now forming a consolidation range above this level. If the pair breaks downwards, it could target a further decline to 0.6682. Conversely, an upward break might lead to a corrective move towards 0.6796. After this correction, the downward trend could continue towards 0.6655. The MACD indicator supports a bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and trending downwards.

On the hourly chart, the pair is consolidating around 0.6734. An upward breakout could lead to a rise towards 0.6815. Following this, a new downward phase could begin, potentially reaching 0.6710. If this level is breached, the decline could extend towards 0.6682. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and poised to move downwards, aligns with this potential downward trajectory.

Conclusion

Investors and traders should closely monitor further developments from both the Federal Reserve and the RBA, as well as any new economic data from China, which could significantly influence the direction of the AUD/USD pair. The complex interplay of US monetary policy expectations, Chinese economic actions, and domestic Australian economic indicators will likely continue to drive volatility in the currency pair.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Oct

USDInd: Eyes 100-day SMA ahead of US CPI data

By ForexTime

USDInd ↑ 2% in October

Traders pricing in 85% prob of Fed cut in November

Over past year, US CPI triggered ↑ 0.8% & ↓ 0.6%

Technical levels – 100 & 200-day SMA

Dollar bulls continue to dominate the G10 space, crushing all obstacles.

A mixture of geopolitical risk and cooling Fed cut bets continue to support upside gains.

USD

And the dollar could see more volatility this afternoon thanks to the incoming US inflation data.

US inflation is expected to cool further in September, supporting expectations around lower US interest rates. However, last Friday’s strong jobs data has extinguished hopes around another jumbo-sized cut by the Fed.

In fact, traders are now pricing in an 85% probability of a 25-basis point cut by November with a 77% probability of another 25bp cut by December.

wirp

Beyond the CPI report, it will be wise to keep an eye on other US data and speeches by numerous Fed officials which could provide more clues on the Fed’s policy path.

Golden nugget: Over the past 12 months, the US CPI report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.8% of declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Taking a look at the charts, the USDInd is firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices hitting a fresh two month high. The index has gained roughly 2% since the start of October, taking its YTD gains to 1.6%.

After shedding almost 5% in Q3, dollars bulls could stage a return this quarter if bets around lower US interest rates continue to fall.

Since securing a solid close above 101.94, bulls have their eyes on the 100-day SMA at 103.30. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signalling that prices are near overbought territory.

A hotter-than-expected US CPI report that dampens Fed cut bets may push the dollar higher. Key levels of interest can be found at 103.30 and the 200-day SMA at 103.80.

A cooler than expected US CPI report may move prices back below 101.94.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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09 Oct

NZD/USD Hits Seven-Week Low Amid Ongoing Sell-off and RBNZ Rate Cuts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair has dropped to a seven-week low, touching 0.6091, as the sell-off that started on 1 October continues to intensify. The New Zealand dollar’s weakness is largely attributed to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) recent decisions to lower interest rates in response to decreasing inflation pressures.

The RBNZ has implemented consecutive rate cuts, most recently reducing the key rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% per annum, following a similar reduction in August. These measures aim to anchor inflation within the target range of 1-3%, with upcoming consumer price data anticipated to potentially show inflation consolidating around 2%, aligning well with the RBNZ’s objectives.

Globally, the focus is on the upcoming publication of the latest US Federal Reserve meeting minutes. These minutes are highly scrutinised as they provide crucial insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy direction. Market participants often use this information to gauge the likelihood of further Fed-rate adjustments, which, in turn, influences global currency dynamics.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

The NZD/USD market has reached the forecasted target of the downward wave at 0.6080. Currently, a new consolidation phase is expected to form above this level. If there is an upward breakout, a corrective movement towards 0.6230 could occur. Following this correction, the potential for a further decline to 0.5944 may be considered. Alternatively, if the consolidation resolves downwards, the downward trend could continue towards 0.5944. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with the signal line positioned below zero and trending downwards.

On the hourly chart, after forming a consolidation range around 0.6126, the pair achieved the downward wave target at 0.6080 with a downward exit. An upward movement to 0.6126 is expected today, followed by a retest of 0.6100. The market may develop a new consolidation range at these levels. An upward breakout could initiate a corrective rally towards 0.6230, considered a corrective response to the recent downward trend. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 20 and pointing upwards, suggests a potential for upward correction.

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04 Oct

EUR/USD hits three-week low amid ECB easing expectations

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has descended to 1.1027, marking its lowest point in three weeks. The drop reflects market anticipation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to ease monetary policy aggressively, spurred by sluggish economic growth and inflation rates falling below the ECB’s 2% target in the Eurozone.

Recent data revealed that the Eurozone’s annual Consumer Price Index decreased to 1.8% in September, the lowest since April 2021 and below the forecasted 1.9%. Moreover, core inflation dipped to 2.7% year-on-year from 2.8%, contrary to expectations of remaining steady. These weaker-than-expected inflation figures have reinforced the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming ECB meeting in October, which would mark the third reduction in borrowing costs this year. The market currently places a 95% probability on a 25-basis-point cut.

Robust statistics from the US services sector have further pressured the EUR/USD exchange rate, adding to the euro’s woes.

With a significant day ahead, the focus is now on the US job market reports, including the unemployment rate, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), and average wages, which could further influence the pair’s movements.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair recently completed a downward wave to 1.1008, followed by a corrective rise to 1.1039. Today, the expectation is for a decline to 1.0982. After reaching this target, a potential corrective movement to 1.1066 may occur. Following this correction, another downward wave to 1.0966 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and trending downwards.

On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD continues to develop its third wave of decline towards 1.0982. The pair formed a consolidation range around 1.1046 and achieved a local target at 1.1008 with a downward exit. A corrective move up to 1.1045 is expected today, which will likely be tested from below. Following this correction, a continued decline to 1.0982 is anticipated. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this bearish scenario, with its signal line below 50 and poised to descend towards 20.

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03 Oct

NZD/USD Dips as Market Anticipates RBNZ Rate Cut

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair continues its downward trend, dropping to 0.6240 in its third consecutive session of declines. This ongoing sell-off in the New Zealand dollar is driven by market expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). New Zealand’s borrowing costs are currently at 5.25% per annum, with widespread anticipation of a 50-basis point reduction at the next RBNZ meeting.

The RBNZ is known for its proactive and flexible monetary policy, which swiftly adjusts to inflationary pressures and external economic indicators. This expected rate cut responds to such factors and aligns with the bank’s strategy to manage economic growth and inflation.

Moreover, the NZD has been under additional pressure from a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by unexpectedly robust US employment statistics for September, reported by ADP. Although the ADP report does not directly correlate with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due shortly, it still shapes market expectations and sentiment.

Global risk appetite has also waned significantly due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, further dampening the prospects for growth-sensitive currencies like the NZD.

NZD/USD technical analysis

The NZD/USD pair followed a bearish pattern, confirming a downward wave to 0.6265 and a corrective rise to 0.6313. The market is now forming a new decline towards 0.6210. Once this target is reached, a corrective move to retest 0.6265 from below may occur, potentially leading to further declines towards 0.6144. This bearish NZD/USD outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which, despite being above zero, shows a strong downward trajectory.

On the hourly chart, the pair is developing the third wave of its decline towards 0.6210. Following this, a corrective fourth wave up to 0.6260 is anticipated. This forecast aligns with the Stochastic oscillator readings, which indicate the signal line is below 50 and heading towards 20, suggesting a continuation of the downward momentum after a brief correction.

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30 Sep

Australian Dollar Reaches 19-Month High Boosted by Chinese Economic Stimulus and Weaker US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair climbed to 0.6922 on Monday, marking its highest point since February 2023. This surge was primarily triggered by China’s announcement of economic stimulus measures, which is significant given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner. Such support for the Chinese economy will likely increase demand for commodities and bolster major currencies tied to trade with China.

Additionally, the Australian dollar has benefited from the recent weakness in the US dollar, spurred by disappointing economic data from the US. This has heightened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will persist with rapid interest rate cuts.

At its September meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to maintain its interest rate at 4.35% per annum, suggesting that the current monetary policy might remain unchanged for some time. The RBA’s cautious approach reflects its strategy of closely monitoring inflation and employment trends without immediate concern about aligning its pace with other global central banks.

This week is set to be significant for the Australian dollar. Australia is scheduled to release data on retail sales, construction, and various trade indicators, which could influence the currency’s trajectory.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD market is extending the fifth wave of growth, with a consolidation range forming around the 0.6925 level. There is potential for an upward break targeting 0.6983. After reaching this level, a corrective movement to retest 0.6925 may occur. If the bullish momentum continues, the next wave could reach 0.7033. The MACD indicator supports this bullish scenario, with its signal line well above zero and upwards.

On the hourly chart, the AUD/USD has achieved a growth wave up to 0.6926 and is now consolidating just below this level. If the pair exits this range downward, a correction to 0.6877 could be expected. Conversely, a breakout above could extend the uptrend towards 0.6982, potentially reaching 0.7033. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80 and trending downward, suggests a short-term pullback might occur before further advances.

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29 Sep

US Dollar Index Speculator bets drop for 2nd week to lowest since April

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (28,874 contracts) with the British Pound (24,013 contracts), the Japanese Yen (9,171 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (7,561 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,703 contracts), the EuroFX (2,052 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (432 contracts) recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-4,956 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,182 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-839 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-573 contracts) round out the lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculator bets drop for 2nd week to lowest since April

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions declined for a second straight week and for sixth time out of the past ten weeks this week. This recent weakness has brought the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at just a total of +959 contracts) to the lowest level since April 30th, a span of 21 weeks.

The Dollar Index has been under pressure with the US Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by 50 basis points at the last central bank meeting to bring the current rate to a range of 4.75-5.00 percent. The CME Fedwatch tool shows at the current time, there is a 53.3 percent probability outlook that the Fed will cut the rate by another 50 basis points at the November 7th meeting while there is a 46.7 percent probability outlook of a 25 basis point reduction.

The US Dollar Index is currently at significant price levels and closed this week at 100.11. The 100.00 level has been a major support and resistance level in the past and also coincides with the 200-week moving average which is currently right around the 100.40 level. The Dollar Index has not traded consistently below the 200-week MA since 2021. A break below the 100.00 would see the 99.00 level come immediately into play which is also where the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement support level resides (from the January 2021 bottom to September 2022 high). Needless to say, these will likely be some important weeks coming for the USD and its future direction.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large speculators) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). CFTC criteria here.

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (75 percent), Swiss Franc (62 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the 3-Year strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the Brazilian Real (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Mexican Peso (38 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (7.9 percent)
EuroFX (50.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (50.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (75.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (64.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (61.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (66.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (81.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (56.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (37.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (35.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (16.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (43.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.8 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (51 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (26 percent), the EuroFX (19 percent) and the British Pound (18 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-29 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-37.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-30.6 percent)
EuroFX (19.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (17.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (10.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (51.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (26.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (0.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (27.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (28.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-28.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-22.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.1	25.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.6	22.1	14.6
– Net Position:	959	899	-1,858
– Gross Longs:	16,524	6,885	2,097
– Gross Shorts:	15,565	5,986	3,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	100.0	3.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.5	37.0	-4.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 71,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	55.9	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	72.5	6.8
– Net Position:	71,698	-112,828	41,130
– Gross Longs:	187,795	379,577	87,312
– Gross Shorts:	116,097	492,405	46,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	47.0	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-22.0	32.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 86,992 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.7	20.8	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	62.3	9.4
– Net Position:	86,992	-104,383	17,391
– Gross Longs:	155,325	52,374	40,935
– Gross Shorts:	68,333	156,757	23,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	19.9	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.6	-18.3	14.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	28.2	19.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	65.5	14.2
– Net Position:	66,011	-77,508	11,497
– Gross Longs:	104,690	58,606	40,901
– Gross Shorts:	38,679	136,114	29,404
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	91.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-19.8	26.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -19,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	64.1	22.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	28.8	25.9
– Net Position:	-19,290	21,396	-2,106
– Gross Longs:	7,501	38,884	13,588
– Gross Shorts:	26,791	17,488	15,694
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.8	34.4	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-8.0	11.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	71.8	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	43.8	12.0
– Net Position:	-65,589	59,746	5,843
– Gross Longs:	25,305	153,065	31,425
– Gross Shorts:	90,894	93,319	25,582
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	40.8	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	51.1	-49.9	21.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	33.1	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.8	35.8	10.9
– Net Position:	-11,248	-4,644	15,892
– Gross Longs:	81,924	58,488	35,139
– Gross Shorts:	93,172	63,132	19,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	16.0	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.4	-36.5	60.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	41.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	43.1	6.2
– Net Position:	-1,458	-928	2,386
– Gross Longs:	26,475	22,853	5,792
– Gross Shorts:	27,933	23,781	3,406
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	53.9	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.2	-32.4	45.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	56.9	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	65.0	4.2
– Net Position:	12,426	-10,852	-1,574
– Gross Longs:	51,480	76,816	4,127
– Gross Shorts:	39,054	87,668	5,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	63.7	7.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	18.1	-1.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	73.4	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.4	19.8	3.5
– Net Position:	-37,262	36,777	485
– Gross Longs:	13,840	50,396	2,883
– Gross Shorts:	51,102	13,619	2,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	83.7	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-16.3	4.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -973 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.1	6.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.2	3.1	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,546	1,093	453
– Gross Longs:	23,856	2,033	1,433
– Gross Shorts:	25,402	940	980
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	92.5	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	45.0	3.9

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COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

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