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EUR/USD Dips to Three-Month Low Amid Strong Dollar Demand

EUR/USD has tumbled to 1.0789, marking a near three-month low as market sentiment heavily favours the US dollar. The dollar’s strength is driven by expectations of a gradual and limited interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and solid prospects for Donald Trump’s re-election, which appears increasingly likely.

Concurrently, the Euro is under pressure due to a significant rate cut by the European Central Bank. This cut has set a clear downward trend for the EUR exchange rate, offering little room for recovery. This week, Fed officials advocated caution in monetary easing, suggesting that while a 50-basis-point cut by year-end is plausible, more aggressive cuts are unlikely.

The combination of Fed caution, rising US government bond yields, and the anticipated political stability under a potential second Trump term are contributing factors to the strengthening US dollar.

Today, the focus will be on key economic indicators, including Markit’s October business activity in services and industry. Additionally, data on new home sales and the weekly unemployment benefits report will be closely monitored, especially considering their importance to the Fed’s assessment of the employment landscape.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair has completed a downward wave to 1.0760 and is now rebounding towards 1.0880. After reaching this level, a pullback to 1.0820 is anticipated. The market may form a consolidation range at these lows, with a potential breakout upwards towards 1.0900 and possibly extending to 1.0990. The MACD indicator, currently below zero but pointing upwards, supports the possibility of a corrective rally.

On the hourly chart, EUR/USD is developing a second growth impulse towards 1.0824. Once this level is achieved, a corrective phase will be initiated, targeting 1.0790. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line moving towards 80 from above 50, supports this short-term bullish correction within the broader bearish context.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Oct

USD/JPY Climbs to Three-Month Peak Amid US Dollar Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY currency pair surged to near three-month highs, hitting 151.79, driven by the strengthening US dollar and rising US government bond yields. The appreciation of the US dollar was supported by favourable macroeconomic data from the US and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets in anticipation of the upcoming US elections.

Japan’s political landscape is uncertain as it approaches its general elections this weekend. Preliminary polls indicate that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could potentially lose its majority, intensifying concerns over political stability and the future direction of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Such political uncertainties further diminish the prospects of the Japanese yen regaining strength against a robust US dollar.

The current environment suggests that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to intervene effectively under these conditions. Market expectations are that any attempts at intervention would be futile against the prevailing strong demand for the dollar. The yen’s fate now heavily depends on the outcome of Japan’s elections and the subsequent actions of the Bank of Japan, particularly regarding interest rate decisions.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY has established a narrow consolidation range around 150.85 and has broken upwards, continuing its ascent towards the 152.52 target. Once this level is reached, a potential corrective move back down to 150.85 may occur, testing this level from above before another likely ascent to 152.72. The MACD indicator supports this bullish pattern, with its signal line well above zero and sharply upwards, indicating strong upward momentum.

On the hourly chart, USD/JPY has developed a growth structure towards 152.85. Following the achievement of this level, a corrective phase towards 150.85 is anticipated, with an initial correction target set at 151.70. The Stochastic oscillator further underscores this potential pullback, with its signal line positioned above 80 but poised to descend towards 20, suggesting an imminent downward adjustment before further gains.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Oct

USDCAD: Waits on BoC rate decision

By ForexTime

BoC decision & Fed speeches/Beige book in focus

Trader’s see 88% probability of BoC 50bp cut on Wednesday.

Over past year BoC decision triggered moves of ↑ 0.3% & ↓ 0.2%

Bloomberg FX model – 80% – (1.3719 – 1.3940)

Technical levels – 1.3880 and 1.3750

The USDCAD has rallied over 2.2% this month, recently touching its highest level since early August 2024.

Prices are certainly bullish with the upside powered by a broadly stronger dollar. This can be seen in the Canadian Dollar’s performance against other G10 currencies month-to-date.

USDCAD1

More volatility could be on the cards this week due to the incoming BoC rate decision and speeches by numerous Fed officials.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, prices are approaching weekly resistance at 1.3880. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 70 – signalling that prices may be overbought.

USDCAD - w1

Here are 3 reasons why the USDCAD could see big price swings:

1) Bank of Canada rate decision

The Bank of Canada is expected to move ahead with a jumbo 50 bp rate cut on Wednesday.

In fact, traders are currently pricing in an 88% probability that rates will be cut by 50 basis points. Traders are also pricing in a 33% probability of another 50 bp cut by December!

However, the downside surprise in September’s inflation report could prompt the BoC to opt for a 25bp move instead. Inflation in Canada fell to 1.6% in September from 2% in the previous month – the lowest since February 2021.

Golden nugget: Over the past 12 months, the BoC rate decision has triggered upside moves as much as 0.3% or declines of 0.2 % in the 6 hours after the data release.

Should the BoC move ahead with a 50bp cut and signal further cuts down the road, this may weaken the CAD. Such could propel prices toward 1.3880 and 1.3940 – the upper limit of Bloomberg’s FX model.

A less dovish than expected BoC may boost the Canadian Dollar. This could trigger a selloff toward 1.3720.

2) Fed speeches & Beige book

A host of Fed speeches this week may provide fresh insight into the Fed’s stance on future policy moves. It will also be wise to keep an eye on the Fed’s Beige book published on Wednesday 23rd October which could provide insight into the health of the US economy.

Traders are currently pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis point cut by November and 60% probability of another cut by December.

Any major shifts to these expectations could translate to dollar volatility, influencing the USDCAD as a result.

3) Technical forces

The USDCAD is firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the daily timeframe is touching 70 -signalling that prices are heavily overbought.

If the upside momentum holds, this may push prices towards 1.3880 and 1.3940.

If bears return to the scene, this may drag prices toward 1.3750 and 1.3720.

usdcad 1

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s an 80% chance that USDCAD will trade within the 1.3719 – 1.3940 range over the next one week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Oct

AUD/USD Struggles for Stability: Chances are Slim

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair is attempting a recovery toward 0.6681, though the prospects seem uncertain as the pair remains near a six-week low. The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in US Treasury yields, driven by expectations of a confident victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election, are weighing heavily on the Australian dollar.

Despite ongoing expectations for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in November and December, signs of stability in the US economy further bolster the US dollar. However, the market is tempering its expectations for further monetary easing next year.

On the domestic front, Australia’s recent labour market data was positive. September figures showed a job increase of 64.1k, significantly above the forecasted 25.0k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Investors are now looking forward to upcoming PMI data, which could provide further insights into the health of Australia’s economy.

Despite these positive domestic indicators, China’s influence remains a critical factor for the Australian dollar, given its role as Australia’s primary trading partner. The market has deemed recent stimulus measures in China insufficient, adding to the challenges for the AUD.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD is downward towards the target level of 0.6636. Upon reaching this target, the market may form a new consolidation range at these lows. If an upward breakout occurs, a correction towards 0.6790 might be considered. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and poised for potential growth, suggesting a possible shift in momentum.

On the hourly chart, AUD/USD has completed a downward wave to 0.6650, followed by a correction to 0.6690. Another downward movement towards 0.6636 is anticipated today. A subsequent growth wave towards 0.6722 may develop if this level is reached. The Stochastic oscillator backs this outlook, with its signal line currently above 80 but expected to descend sharply towards 20, indicating the potential for further downward movement before any recovery.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Oct

Currency Speculators continue to reduce US Dollar Index, Canadian Dollar bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were decidedly lower this week as just one out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains was the Brazilian Real (4,836 contracts) which came through as the only currency having a positive week this week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-33,242 contracts), the EuroFX (-21,948 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-14,153 contracts), the British Pound (-7,333 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,947 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,702 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-2,418 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,573 contracts), Bitcoin (-590 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-211 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators continue to reduce US Dollar Index, Canadian Dollar bets

This week’s COT currency’s data saw speculators continue to drop their US Dollar Index bets as well as their wagers for the Canadian Dollar.

The USD Index speculative position has fallen for five consecutive weeks and by a total of -22,310 contracts over the last five weeks. This weakness has now dropped the current USD Index speculator position (at -2,100 contracts) to the most bearish level since June 15th of 2021, a span of 174 weeks. This can also be seen in the speculator strength index score for the USD Index which is at 0 percent or in other words, the weakest speculator level of the past three years.

The average speculator contract position over 2024 has dipped to a weekly average of +6,528 contracts through Tuesday. This follows the weekly average of +12,782 contracts over the course of 2023. The 2022 year was a very strong Dollar environment and the USD Index speculator contracts averaged a total of +33,606 contracts per week over the course of that year.

Despite the erosion of the large speculator sentiment, the US Dollar Index (DX) price has increased for three straight weeks and closed the week around 103.30. Previously at the end of September, the price had fallen to the 100.00 level where it found support and bounced rather strongly. Since that strong support, the USD has sailed through the 102.50-103.00 level and the next overhead resistance for the USD coming up is the 104.50-105.00 levels.

The Canadian dollar saw the largest decrease in speculator bets for all the currencies this week. The weaker sentiment coincides with declining oil prices as well as with the expectation the Bank of Canada will be potentially reducing their interest rate by 50 basis points in the coming week. This week’s speculator standing for the CAD is the 10th most bearish level on record at a total of -122,393 net contracts. The all-time record low of -196,263 contracts took place not to long ago on July 30th of 2024.

The CAD exchange rate against the USD has fallen for three straight weeks and is starting to reach the lowest levels of the past few years. Currently, the CAD price (CADUSD or CAD futures) is trading at 0.7254 with a major support level residing close below at 0.7200. This level has provided support three times since 2022 and most recently was tested and rejected in August.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (90 percent) and the Japanese Yen (87 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (75 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (28 percent), the Canadian Dollar (33 percent) and the Bitcoin (38 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.4 percent)
EuroFX (27.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (37.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (74.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (78.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (87.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (88.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (47.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (33.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (90.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (40.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (43.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (45.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (47.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (42.6 percent)
Bitcoin (38.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (47.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (43 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The US Dollar Index (-46 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-35 percent), Bitcoin (-30 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-24 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-45.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-44.2 percent)
EuroFX (-35.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-22.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-24.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (19.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (37.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-0.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (43.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (40.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-16.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.5	19.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.2	6.6	15.3
– Net Position:	-2,100	3,011	-911
– Gross Longs:	15,352	4,607	2,792
– Gross Shorts:	17,452	1,596	3,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.7	41.2	6.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	58.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	65.6	7.6
– Net Position:	17,150	-48,975	31,825
– Gross Longs:	169,319	382,899	82,051
– Gross Shorts:	152,169	431,874	50,226
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	70.9	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	34.6	-22.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 85,802 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.7	22.0	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	61.7	9.6
– Net Position:	85,802	-99,448	13,646
– Gross Longs:	151,923	54,936	37,756
– Gross Shorts:	66,121	154,384	24,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.7	21.8	90.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	8.6	1.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	34.7	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	53.2	17.8
– Net Position:	34,110	-36,639	2,529
– Gross Longs:	86,685	68,697	37,699
– Gross Shorts:	52,575	105,336	35,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	15.0	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.7	-7.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	73.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.9	27.1	22.2
– Net Position:	-26,161	30,369	-4,208
– Gross Longs:	6,834	48,275	10,505
– Gross Shorts:	32,995	17,906	14,713
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	49.0	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	11.3	-12.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -122,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.7	34.6	10.3
– Net Position:	-122,393	123,906	-1,513
– Gross Longs:	36,718	226,425	29,024
– Gross Shorts:	159,111	102,519	30,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	67.1	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	25.5	-23.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	29.2	18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	48.9	8.4
– Net Position:	19,269	-38,078	18,809
– Gross Longs:	99,051	56,412	34,998
– Gross Shorts:	79,782	94,490	16,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	7.3	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-18.6	10.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -292 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	45.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.2	47.1	5.9
– Net Position:	-292	-1,122	1,414
– Gross Longs:	25,079	24,748	4,646
– Gross Shorts:	25,371	25,870	3,232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	53.5	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.9	-12.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	50.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	67.6	4.1
– Net Position:	25,246	-23,735	-1,511
– Gross Longs:	60,759	70,382	4,237
– Gross Shorts:	35,513	94,117	5,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	57.6	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	1.9	7.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	53.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.5	43.0	5.0
– Net Position:	-5,143	4,952	191
– Gross Longs:	18,703	26,105	2,645
– Gross Shorts:	23,846	21,153	2,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	53.9	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.3	-29.8	-78.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,282 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	6.8	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.0	2.5	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,872	1,466	406
– Gross Longs:	26,758	2,332	1,405
– Gross Shorts:	28,630	866	999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	100.0	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.8	45.3	3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

18 Oct

USDJPY Adjusts Amid Mixed Signals from Japan’s Economic Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY is experiencing a correction phase following two days of gains, as mixed economic signals emerge from Japan. Despite ongoing expectations for monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the yen faces downward pressure from a slowdown in domestic inflation, which could potentially dampen the urgency for immediate rate hikes.

In September, Japan’s consumer prices increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking a decrease from the 3.0% inflation rate recorded in August. This slowdown is the first since March and represents the lowest inflation level since April of this year. The core inflation index, a key metric for the BoJ, rose by 2.4%, down from 2.8% in August, yet has remained above the BoJ’s target of 2.0% for 30 consecutive months. Notably, inflation excluding food and energy was recorded at 2.1% in September, a slight increase from 2.0% in August.

Recent comments from BoJ board member Seiji Adachi suggest a preference for moderate rate adjustments, reflecting concerns over global economic uncertainty and the domestic pace of wage increases. Additionally, the yen’s persistent weakness has drawn attention from Japan’s Chief Monetary Representative Atsushi Mimura, who reiterated the government’s focus on monitoring exchange rate fluctuations and its stance against excessive volatility.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY pair recently achieved a peak at 150.30 and is now forming a decline towards 149.75, testing this level from above. Looking ahead, we anticipate a potential resurgence towards 151.15. A successful breach of this level could open the way to 152.09. Conversely, a drop below 149.70 could trigger a further correction down to 147.70. The MACD indicator supports this potential upward trajectory, with the signal line positioned above zero and poised to reach new highs.

On the hourly chart, USD/JPY has established a consolidation range between 149.75 and 150.30. The current market dynamics suggest a correction towards 149.75. Following this correction, the likelihood of a rebound to 150.65 appears feasible, setting the stage for an extended rise to 151.15. This bullish outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line advancing from 20 towards 80, indicating a strengthening momentum for upward movement.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Oct

AUD/USD Rises Following Strong Australian Employment Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

AUD/USD rebounded on Thursday after three consecutive days of declines. This was supported by robust employment data from Australia, which bolstered the hawkish outlook on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy.

Key Employment Data Highlights:

Job creation: the Australian economy added 64.1k jobs in September, significantly surpassing the expected 25.0k. This marked improvement suggests strong economic momentum
Unemployment rate: the rate held steady at 4.1%, aligning with expectations and underscoring the labour market’s resilience
Labour force participation: the participation rate rose to a record 67.2% in September from 67.1% in August, beating the forecast of 67.1%. This increase reflects a growing workforce, which could sustain consumer spending and economic activity

These indicators of labour market strength make it less likely that the RBA will opt for rate cuts in the near term. Additionally, RBA Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter emphasised the central bank’s commitment to controlling inflation, which continues to be a concern amid sustained price increases. Analysts now suggest that the RBA is unlikely to cut rates until at least the first half of the next year, considering the tight labour market conditions.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is extending its downward movement towards a target of 0.6645. After testing the resistance at 0.6700 from below, it continues its decline. Once the 0.6645 level is reached, a new consolidation range is expected to form above this level. A breakout above this range could initiate a corrective phase towards 0.6790. This bearish trend is supported by the MACD indicator, which remains below zero and points downwards, indicating sustained downward momentum.

On the hourly chart, AUD/USD has completed a downward wave to 0.6660, followed by a corrective rise to 0.6700. The pair is expected to continue its decline to the 0.6645 level. After this target is met, a potential reversal could push the price towards 0.6710. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and heading towards 20, suggesting that there may be further downside before any significant recovery.

Disclaimer

Forex and Currency News Opinions

16 Oct

EUR/USD Continues Downward Amid Economic Uncertainties

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD has sustained its position below the EMA-200 line, indicating a potential shift into a more defined downtrend. Recent comments from Raphael Bostic, head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, have influenced this movement. Bostic suggests a modest 25-basis-point cut in interest rates this year – contrary to earlier predictions of a more aggressive 50-point reduction. Federal Reserve officials have underscored that any policy easing would be contingent on upcoming economic data.

The dollar’s strength is further bolstered by the Empire Manufacturing Index for New York State, which sharply declined to -11.9 in October, a significant drop from 11.5 in September, marking the lowest level since May. This unexpected downturn, which contrasts with analyst expectations for a slight positive reading of 3.8, highlights a deterioration in regional manufacturing activity. While this data suggests potential headwinds for the US economy, it could paradoxically support the USD if it fuels speculation about a less aggressive rate-cutting strategy by the Fed.

Market participants eagerly anticipate further economic reports, including data on retail sales, industrial production, and the upcoming manufacturing data from FRB Philadelphia. These indicators will be crucial in painting a more comprehensive picture of the US consumer sector and overall industrial conditions, potentially guiding the next moves for EUR/USD.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD is entrenched downward, aiming for the 1.0777 target level. The currency pair is currently consolidating around 1.0888. A break below this consolidation to 1.0860 could further propel the pair towards 1.0777. Upon reaching this level, a corrective phase towards 1.0996 might be anticipated. The MACD indicator, positioned below zero and poised to reach new lows, supports this bearish outlook.

On the hourly chart, EUR/USD has formed a consolidation range just above 1.0888. A downward break from this range is expected, which could extend the decline towards 1.0857 and potentially continue the downtrend to 1.0777. This scenario is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and trending downwards towards 20, indicating the likelihood of continued bearish momentum.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Oct

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainties

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY has been struggling to break past the resistance level at 149.55 despite repeated attempts over the past five trading sessions. The Japanese yen remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve signals a more moderate approach to interest rate cuts in its upcoming meetings, contrasting with the broader expectations of more aggressive rate reductions.

Further complicating the currency dynamics, recent fiscal stimulus announcements from China have yet to manage to bolster market confidence. Over the weekend, China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an detailed plans for additional capital injections into state-owned banks and measures to support the property market. However, the lack of specific details regarding the spending amount and the precise nature of these measures left investors feeling uncertain about the effectiveness and scale of the proposed stimulus.

In Japan, dovish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and opposition from new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba against further rate hikes have added to the pressure on the yen. Earlier this month, Ishiba expressed concerns that the current economic conditions do not warrant additional rate increases. However, other senior officials later softened this stance, indicating some internal conflict or reassessment within the Japanese government regarding monetary policy.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is currently within a broad consolidation range around 149.22. The range has expanded to 149.96, and the market is now forming a downward movement towards 149.22, testing this level from above. If the market rebounds from here, we might see an ascent towards 150.22. A break above this level could signal a continuation towards 153.22. Conversely, a drop below 148.88 could lead to a further correction down to 147.47. The MACD indicator supports this view, with the signal line high above zero but starting to descend towards it, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

On the hourly chart, USD/JPY has completed a growth wave to 149.96 and is undergoing a correction to 149.22. Following this corrective phase, the market is expected to resume its upward trajectory towards 150.22. This movement aligns with the Stochastic oscillator’s current trajectory, which shows the signal line moving upwards from 50 towards 80, indicating potential for further gains in the short term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Oct

US Dollar Index Speculator bets fall for 4th straight week to 6-month low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (28,276 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,894 contracts), the Mexican Peso (2,894 contracts), Bitcoin (402 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (395 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-20,244 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-19,148 contracts), the EuroFX (-16,229 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,043 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-689 contracts) and the British Pound (-630 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculator bets fall for 4th straight week to 6-month low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decrease in the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions declined for a fourth straight week and have now dipped by a total of -22,099 net contracts over this 4-week period. This recent weakness has pushed the US Dollar Index speculator net position into an overall bearish position at a total of -1,889 contracts. The current speculator standing now resides at the lowest level since April 2nd, a span of 27 weeks.

The Dollar Index sentiment has been feeling the pressure over the past few months with US inflation steadily coming down since the highs of 2022 and with the government interest rates already in a cutting cycle. The US Federal Reserve reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points at the last central bank meeting and brought the current rate down to a range of 4.75-5.00 percent.

There was an expectation of another jumbo rate cut coming up but a recent strong jobs report combined with a recent sticky inflation report puts a higher probability now for a smaller rate cut or even the possibility of a Fed hold. The CME Fedwatch tool shows at the current time, there is a 89.5 percent probability outlook that the Fed will cut the rate by another 25 basis points at the November 7th meeting while there is also 10.5 percent probability outlook that the Fed will hold the rate steady next month.

Despite the recent sentiment deficit, the US Dollar Index price has had a strong couple of weeks after falling to and rebounding off the 100.15 level on September 27th. Including September 30th, the Dollar Index has risen in nine out of the past ten days and closed this week right below 103.00 at a close of 102.91. We will see if this strength in the USD continues and whether the Dollar Index can get over the 103.00 support/resistance barrier or perhaps, head back lower toward 100.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Japanese Yen (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (78 percent) and the Swiss Franc (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (37 percent), the Brazilian Real (43 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (43 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (37.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (43.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (78.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (78.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (88.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (55.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (54.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (56.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (86.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (44.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (45.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (44.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (42.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.8 percent)
Bitcoin (47.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (41 percent) and the Australian Dollar (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The New Zealand Dollar (18 percent), the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) and the Japanese Yen (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-23 percent), Bitcoin (-17 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-44.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-37.2 percent)
EuroFX (-22.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (5.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (42.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (37.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (18.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (30.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (40.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (12.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-16.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-21.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 154 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.6	23.5	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	13.6	13.7
– Net Position:	-1,889	2,542	-653
– Gross Longs:	15,016	6,016	2,869
– Gross Shorts:	16,905	3,474	3,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.3	40.0	7.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	57.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	68.7	7.2
– Net Position:	39,098	-74,895	35,797
– Gross Longs:	173,866	384,954	84,183
– Gross Shorts:	134,768	459,849	48,386
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	61.2	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	22.7	-15.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 93,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.6	21.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	63.4	9.1
– Net Position:	93,135	-108,008	14,873
– Gross Longs:	157,666	54,329	38,166
– Gross Shorts:	64,531	162,337	23,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.0	18.4	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.1	-0.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	37.4	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	56.6	17.6
– Net Position:	36,528	-37,659	1,131
– Gross Longs:	83,679	73,626	35,746
– Gross Shorts:	47,151	111,285	34,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	14.6	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-2.3	-10.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	69.7	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	27.1	24.8
– Net Position:	-22,459	27,158	-4,699
– Gross Longs:	7,619	44,473	11,109
– Gross Shorts:	30,078	17,315	15,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	43.8	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-0.5	-8.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -89,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	75.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.3	36.8	12.2
– Net Position:	-89,151	86,230	2,921
– Gross Longs:	21,643	168,983	30,344
– Gross Shorts:	110,794	82,753	27,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	51.6	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-8.2	-2.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.2	28.7	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	53.1	7.7
– Net Position:	33,422	-50,253	16,831
– Gross Longs:	111,561	59,057	32,659
– Gross Shorts:	78,139	109,310	15,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.3	-34.3	12.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	44.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	50.1	5.6
– Net Position:	1,281	-3,503	2,222
– Gross Longs:	26,287	25,088	5,417
– Gross Shorts:	25,006	28,591	3,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	49.2	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-20.4	19.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	53.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	74.3	4.2
– Net Position:	29,193	-27,901	-1,292
– Gross Longs:	55,327	73,035	4,374
– Gross Shorts:	26,134	100,936	5,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	55.6	9.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	0.7	0.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 28,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	50.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.1	33.3	3.9
– Net Position:	-9,979	9,637	342
– Gross Longs:	25,201	28,804	2,598
– Gross Shorts:	35,180	19,167	2,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	58.3	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.8	-40.5	1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	6.2	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.8	3.3	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,282	872	410
– Gross Longs:	24,233	1,827	1,250
– Gross Shorts:	25,515	955	840
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	85.5	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	25.1	2.5

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