Forex and Currency News

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USD/JPY Continues to Climb Amid External and Domestic Pressures

USD/JPY rose to 157.65 on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive day of gains. The yen came under pressure following stronger-than-expected US inflation data, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance.

Market focus remains on the Bank of Japan. Following its April meeting, some policymakers signalled the possibility of a further rate hike. Rising global oil prices are adding to inflationary pressures in Japan. The OECD forecasts that the BoJ’s key rate could reach 2% by the end of 2027.

Currency markets are also watching for potential interventions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that Washington and Tokyo view excessive currency volatility as undesirable, which was seen as indirect support for Japan’s efforts to stabilise the yen.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading around 157.33, with a breakout suggesting further upside towards 157.97. A short-term correction to 156.50 is possible before a potential move higher resumes. The MACD indicator, above zero and pointing firmly upwards, supports further gains.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has reached 157.77 and is moving lower towards 157.30. A subsequent rise towards 157.97 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms short-term bullish momentum, although a pullback may develop, indicating some near-term downside risk.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is advancing under both external and domestic influences, supported by technical indicators. While short-term corrections are possible, the broader trend remains upward.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 May

EUR/USD on Edge: Middle East and China in Focus

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD dipped slightly on Tuesday, retreating to 1.1762. The US dollar has returned to favour as a defensive asset after US President Donald Trump questioned the sustainability of the truce with Iran and rejected Tehran’s latest peace proposal.

Trump also plans to convene a meeting with his national security team to discuss a potential resumption of military operations and a review of plans to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ongoing conflict continues to keep oil prices elevated, fuelling inflationary pressures and expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer to contain price pressures.

Investors are now turning their attention to US inflation data for April, which is expected to indicate how the Iran conflict is impacting the economy and help guide potential Federal Reserve decisions.

An additional market factor is the expected meeting later this week between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which is likely to focus on trade relations and the development of artificial intelligence.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1755, with potential downside towards 1.1688. At the same time, a move higher towards 1.1818 remains possible, with further upside to 1.1870. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached 1.1786. A decline towards 1.1740 is likely, followed by a possible rebound to 1.1760 and further upside towards 1.1818. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line near 20 and pointing firmly upwards.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East and upcoming US–China discussions. Strong inflation data could support the US dollar, while positive diplomatic progress may ease pressure on the pair and support further euro gains.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 May

Yen Speculator Bets jump after intervention, CAD & AUD Bets continue higher as USD Index Bets fall

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (40,321 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (23,817 contracts), the Brazilian Real (20,354 contracts), the Australian Dollar (6,805 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (700 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-5,696 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,815 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,510 contracts), the British Pound (-3,269 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,929 contracts) and Bitcoin (-951 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Yen Speculator Bets jump after intervention, CAD & AUD Bets continue higher as USD Index Bets fall

Highlighting the Currency speculator positions this week was a boost in the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the Brazilian Real positions while the US Dollar Index bets fell by the most since the fall.

First off, the Japanese Yen speculator position jumped by over 40,000 contracts this week after it had previously fallen in four out of the previous five weeks. This has a lot to do with the Bank of Japan intervening in the Currency market last week, as the BOJ has been trying to arrest the Japanese Yen’s fall. Currently, the speculator net position for the Japanese Yen contracts remains in a bearish level for a 10th straight week, with the total net position this week at -61,738 net contracts. The BOJ currency intervention has stemmed the slide in the yen for the time being, but this week’s USD/JPY currency pair closed out the week at 156.68.

The Brazilian Real saw its speculator bets jump this week by over 20,000 net contracts. This is a third consecutive week of positive changes and this week’s boost has pushed the net position over 66,000 bullish contracts. This is the highest level for the Brazilian Real contracts since September 30th of 2025, a span of 31 weeks. In the Futures market, the Brazilian Real continues to be on a strong bullish uptrend against the US Dollar, and this week closed at the highest level since February of 2024.

Canadian Dollar contracts continued their strong weekly gains with a third consecutive weekly rise and a boost by over 23,000 contracts this week. This recent positive sentiment for the Canadian Dollar has taken the net speculator bearish standing down to a total of -14,659 net contracts — the best position (least bearish) of the past six weeks. In the Foreign Exchange markets this week, the Canadian Dollar cooled off after four consecutive gaining weeks, and this week closed out at a 0.7321 exchange level. The CAD is still in an ascending triangle pattern and would need to rise clean above 0.7400 to the upside for a further bullish break out.

The Australian Dollar net position saw a second straight weekly gain and is now at the highest speculator position of the past five weeks. Overall, the Australian Dollar speculator positioning is in a super strong position, considering it’s near the top of its three-year range with a strength score of 98.5%. The Australian Dollar bets have now been in bullish territory for 15 consecutive weeks. In the Foreign Exchange market, the Australian Dollar has continued on a strong uptrend after falling as low as 0.5920 in April of 2025. Since that low, the AUD has ascended by over 20% and now trades at 0.7237 against the US Dollar, the highest level since 2022.

The US Dollar Index saw speculator bets dropped this week by -3,815 contracts and marks the biggest one-week fall since September. The US Dollar Index speculator bets have now declined for four consecutive weeks and have taken the overall net position to a virtual neutral level at just 693 net contracts. The US Dollar Index in the Foreign Exchange markets dipped this week for a second consecutive week, however, it remains in its range that has persisted for almost a year with a low support level of 96.50 and a high resistance level of 100.00 (the USD Index is currently trading at 97.78).

Bitcoin, Mexican Peso, and Brazilian Real lead major Currency price performances.

This week saw Bitcoin lead the pack in price gains with a modest 1.98% rise on the week. The Mexican Peso came in second with a 1.50% gain, while the Brazilian Real was also higher by 1% with a 1.17% uptick. The New Zealand Dollar was higher by approximately 1% this week, while the Swiss Franc rose by 0.58%.

The Euro gained by 0.47%. The Australian Dollar was higher by 0.41%, and the British Pound Sterling rounded out the gainers with a modest uptick of 0.27% on the week.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index tripped by -0.17% this week, while the Japanese Yen was lower by -0.30%. The Canadian Dollar was the biggest negative returner with a -0.67% shortfall.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (99 percent) and the Brazilian Real (89 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (78 percent) and Bitcoin (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the British Pound (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the Japanese Yen (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.3 percent)
EuroFX (41.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (42.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (29.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (78.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (67.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (94.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (45.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (88.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (73.7 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (97.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (13 percent) and the EuroFX (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-15 percent), Bitcoin (-13 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-7.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.2 percent)
EuroFX (8.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-20.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-5.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-24.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (12.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-13.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -3,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,508 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	30.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.3	35.7	5.4
– Net Position:	693	-1,569	876
– Gross Longs:	17,048	10,035	2,634
– Gross Shorts:	16,355	11,604	1,758
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	52.3	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.3	-2.1

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -3,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,712 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	58.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	67.9	5.8
– Net Position:	32,202	-73,379	41,177
– Gross Longs:	217,474	480,886	88,156
– Gross Shorts:	185,272	554,265	46,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.0	56.2	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-9.1	7.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,639 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	65.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	41.7	9.9
– Net Position:	-63,908	65,684	-1,776
– Gross Longs:	62,573	180,932	25,560
– Gross Shorts:	126,481	115,248	27,336
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.5	85.8	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	1.8	2.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -61,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 40,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,059 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	52.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.2	35.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-61,738	59,650	2,088
– Gross Longs:	109,035	186,544	37,725
– Gross Shorts:	170,773	126,894	35,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	66.0	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	0.4	-7.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,221 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	80.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	35.2	20.5
– Net Position:	-34,521	42,861	-8,340
– Gross Longs:	7,145	76,076	11,018
– Gross Shorts:	41,666	33,215	19,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.9	69.4	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	18.7	-17.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 23,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,476 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	49.9	11.9
– Net Position:	-14,659	12,794	1,865
– Gross Longs:	73,650	134,383	30,958
– Gross Shorts:	88,309	121,589	29,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	23.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.7	-3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 78,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 6,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,869 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	33.0	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	70.8	5.4
– Net Position:	78,674	-105,545	26,871
– Gross Longs:	143,214	92,272	42,086
– Gross Shorts:	64,540	197,817	15,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.5	1.5	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.9	7.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -48,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,322 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	85.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.2	27.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-48,251	49,327	-1,076
– Gross Longs:	9,063	72,581	3,486
– Gross Shorts:	57,314	23,254	4,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	89.6	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	24.3	-5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -5,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,823 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	46.9	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	82.7	1.0
– Net Position:	62,127	-66,944	4,817
– Gross Longs:	91,592	87,636	6,627
– Gross Shorts:	29,465	154,580	1,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.1	52.8	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.0	9.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 20,354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,443 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.3	24.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	78.1	1.0
– Net Position:	66,797	-70,648	3,851
– Gross Longs:	93,500	31,743	5,099
– Gross Shorts:	26,703	102,391	1,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	10.8	42.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-12.6	0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,392 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	1.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.3	8.1	4.6
– Net Position:	1,441	-1,539	98
– Gross Longs:	19,301	349	1,184
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	1,888	1,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	22.4	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	9.1	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 May

Yen Stabilises, but Intervention Risks Remain

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY is holding near 156.83 on Friday. Despite heightened volatility in recent sessions, the yen is set to end the week broadly unchanged. Fears of intervention and Tokyo’s firm rhetoric have failed to support a sustained strengthening of the currency.

Japanese authorities have stated that they are not constrained by the frequency of their interventions in the foreign exchange market and remain in constant contact with the US. Earlier, the yen rose sharply amid suspected interventions on 30 April and 6 May, but there was no official confirmation of these actions.

Domestic data has been stronger. Real wages rose for the third consecutive month, supporting expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Nevertheless, the external backdrop remains negative. A stronger dollar and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on the yen.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 156.50 and is moving higher towards 157.39. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible pullback to 156.50 before a further move higher towards 157.90. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating that bullish momentum is building.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has reached 156.95 and is now pulling back towards 156.50. A rebound towards 157.00 may follow, with a possible extension to 157.39. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20, indicating that short-term downside pressure remains.

Conclusion

The yen has stabilised near 156.83 against the dollar, but intervention risks persist despite Tokyo’s verbal warnings. Domestic wage growth supports BoJ tightening expectations, yet external factors such as a strong dollar and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the currency. Technically, a short-term rise to 157.39 may be followed by a pullback to 156.50 before any further upside develops.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 May

Pound Reaches Fresh Highs as the US Dollar Weakens

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD climbed to 1.3599 on Thursday, with sterling testing its highest levels since mid-February during the previous session. The pound continues to gain support from weakening demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid growing optimism surrounding a possible agreement between the US and Iran.

According to Axios, the White House is close to signing a framework memorandum with Iran that could pave the way for ending the conflict and launching nuclear negotiations. Tehran’s response is expected within the next 48 hours, although a final agreement has yet to be secured.

Investors are also closely monitoring local elections in the United Kingdom, where opinion polls suggest that Keir Starmer’s party could face notable losses.

On the monetary policy front, expectations for the Bank of England have shifted slightly. Markets are currently pricing in around 50 basis points of tightening by the end of the year, equivalent to two rate increases. Previously, investors had anticipated as many as three hikes.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a broad consolidation range above 1.3515, currently extending towards 1.3650. A corrective move lower towards 1.3344 remains possible. After this correction, the pair may consolidate again. A breakout higher would reopen the path towards 1.3650, while a downside move could extend losses towards 1.3344. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with the signal line above zero and pointing firmly lower, indicating fading bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3615. The range has extended lower towards 1.3578, with the pair attempting to rebound towards 1.3615 as a retest from below. After that, another decline towards 1.3565 may follow. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with the signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, signalling increasing short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

Sterling remains supported by improving global risk sentiment and reduced demand for the US dollar as a defensive asset. However, political uncertainty in the UK and shifting expectations around Bank of England policy could limit further upside. In the near term, GBP/USD is likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and broader market sentiment.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 May

US Dollar Weakens Amid Geopolitical Optimism

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD rose to 1.1717 on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak. Pressure on the US dollar stems from growing expectations that the US will reach a negotiated settlement with Iran, reducing demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset.

US authorities have confirmed that the truce, now in effect for nearly a month, remains intact. Military operations have concluded, and the focus is shifting towards securing shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump also announced a pause in operations to facilitate the extraction of stranded vessels, providing room for negotiations.

Against this backdrop, oil prices have moderated, lowering inflation risks and reducing expectations of further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Investor attention now turns to ADP private-sector employment data for April, which precedes Friday’s key labour market report.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 1.1742, currently extending down to 1.1729. A move lower below this level is likely, with potential downside towards 1.1690 and possibly 1.1636. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has reached the 1.1742 level and is now moving lower. A decline towards 1.1695 is likely, followed by a possible rebound to 1.1711 before a further move lower towards 1.1650 and potentially 1.1636. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

The US dollar has lost ground amid rising geopolitical optimism, as markets increasingly price in the likelihood of a negotiated settlement between the US and Iran. With the truce holding for nearly a month and military operations paused, the focus has shifted to securing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while moderating oil prices have eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of Fed tightening. This has supported a rebound in EUR/USD after three days of declines. However, technical indicators suggest the broader bearish momentum for the pair may still be intact, with potential for further downside towards 1.1690 and 1.1636. The near-term direction will likely be influenced by US labour market data due later this week.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 May

Yen Weakens as Demand for the US Dollar Returns

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY held near 157.22 on Tuesday following a volatile start to the week. Pressure on the Japanese yen has increased as demand for the US dollar has returned, with investors once again favouring the greenback as a defensive asset. The move comes amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, which threaten the fragile truce between the US and Iran.

The renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed energy prices higher and reignited inflation concerns. In turn, this has supported the US dollar by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a tighter monetary stance for longer.

At the same time, markets remain cautious following Japan’s suspected currency intervention last week, which triggered a sharp rebound in the yen. Market estimates suggest Tokyo may have spent as much as USD 35 billion, although the authorities have yet to confirm any direct action.

Investors continue to price in the risk of further intervention. Japan has historically preferred to act during periods of thinner liquidity and has often intervened in waves, helping to sustain elevated volatility across the foreign exchange market.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around 156.50 and is now moving towards 157.60. This level remains the immediate upside target. Once reached, a corrective move lower may begin, with scope for a decline towards 153.80 and potentially 153.00 thereafter. The MACD supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero but pointing firmly upwards, indicating that bullish momentum is still building in the short term before a broader correction may emerge.

On the H1 chart, the market is attempting a breakout above 157.26. A further push higher towards 157.60 is likely in the near term. After that, a pullback towards 155.77 may follow, with the potential for the decline to extend to 153.80. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line above 80, indicating overbought conditions and suggesting that short-term downside pressure may begin to build once the current upward move fades.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains supported by renewed demand for the US dollar amid heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, strengthening the greenback’s defensive appeal. However, the risk of renewed intervention from Japan continues to cap upside potential, leaving the pair vulnerable to sharp reversals despite the near-term bullish bias.

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Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 May

Canadian Dollar Speculator Bets up strongly for 2nd week as CAD price gains for 4th week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was a jump by the Canadian Dollar (20,358 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (7,052 contracts), Brazilian Real (2,910 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,132 contracts), Bitcoin (321 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (122 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,600 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,599 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,612 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,948 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-475 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Canadian Dollar bets gained strongly for 2nd week as CAD price rises for 4th week

Highlighting the Currency markets this week were the Canadian dollar speculator bets, which rose by over 20,000 contracts this week following last week’s approximate gain of 20,000 contracts as well. Canadian dollar speculators have boosted their positions in the past two weeks following the previous five weeks where speculator bets had declined sharply and brought the overall standing to its lowest level since December. The current standing for speculator bets is still in bearish territory at -38,476 contracts but is at a 67% strength score compared to the past 3-years range illustrating how bearish the CAD has been recently.

The Canadian dollar, as one of the commodity currencies, is typically helped out by higher commodity prices and could see an outlook for a higher upside with higher energy and commodity prices likely to persist going forward. There is also speculation the Bank of Canada (BOC) may be inclined to have a bias of raising interest rates with the economic outlook. The Canadian dollar’s price in the Foreign Exchange market has risen for four consecutive weeks. This week the CAD closed out trading at a 0.7374 exchange rate and above its 200-week moving average. Currently, the CAD is in an ascending triangle pattern with overhead resistance around 0.7400. A break above this could test the highest levels for the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar since September of 2024.

The Australian dollar speculator positions got a boost this week by over 7,000 contracts and halts a three-week streak of declining bullish bets. The overall positioning for the Australian dollar speculators comes in at 71,869 contracts this week, which is an extreme bullish score for the Australian dollar compared to the last three years. The Australian dollar’s strength score is currently at a 94.9% reading compared to these last three years which had seen net positions mainly in bearish territory until January 27th. The Australian dollar currency price in the Foreign Exchange markets has been on a strong bullish run and has risen for five consecutive weeks and in 13 out of the past 15 weeks. The Aussie closed out the week at 0.7204, and this marks the highest weekly price close since May of 2022. The AUD is currently sitting right at resistance in the 0.7200 area and a further break above this could bring 0.7350 into play.

Next up, the Brazilian real rose by roughly 3,000 speculator contracts this week, and has risen for two consecutive weeks, as well as three out of the past four weeks. The real has seen a consistently bullish net contract position dating back to February of 2025. The real currently has a total net standing of 46,443 contracts and the current positioning is at a strength score of 73.7% of its three-year range — bullish, but not extremely bullish as of yet. The BRL price has been in a strong uptrend in the Currency markets and has risen for six out of the past seven weeks. Currently the BRL, which closed at 0.2006 this week, is at the highest weekly close since March of 2024, a span of over two years.

Finally, the US Dollar Index saw a slight decline in its speculative bets this week for the third consecutive week. Right now, the US Dollar Index has a total net position of 4,508. Compared to the past three years, this positioning is almost right down the middle with a 56.3% strength score signalling an almost a neutral position for speculators at this time compared to the past three years. In the FX markets, the US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in a range between 96.50 on the downside and with prices being capped around the 100.00 level on the upside. The current pricing is very close to the middle of that range, and we will have to wait to see if the US Dollar Index decisively breaks either of those barriers before evaluating the next levels to be.

Japanese Yen (BOJ Intervention) and Australian Dollar lead Currency markets price performance.

Over the past week, the Japanese Yen was the highest mover in the Foreign Exchange market, with a 1.62% gain over the past five days. The Yen’s sharp gain this week was reportedly helped out by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Currency intervention. This was the first time the BOJ had intervened in the Currency markets in the past couple of years, and this was to stem a slide in the Yen’s performance. The intervention helped cut the US Dollar strength against the Yen as the USD/JPY Currency pair dropped from an exchange rate mid-week over 160.70 to approximately around the 156.00 area. The USD/JPY pair closed the week out at the 157.08 exchange.

Coming in second for the week was the Australian Dollar, which rose by 0.83% and has now risen by 4.79% over the past 30 days. Over the past 90 days, the Australian Dollar has been up by 7.75% against the US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar came in next with a 0.59% gain and was followed by the Swiss Franc, which rose by 0.53%. The New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.45%, while the Brazilian Real was close behind at 0.44%, and the British Pound Sterling was also not too far behind with a 0.38% rise. Rounding out the week for the gainers was the Euro, which edged up by a small 0.13%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was lower by -0.18%, followed by the Mexican Peso, which fell by -0.27%, and Bitcoin came in as the biggest decliner with a -0.57% shortfall.

Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has seen the biggest rise with a roughly 15% gain, followed by the Brazilian Real, which is up by 5.86% over the past 30 days. The only market lower over the past 30 days is the US Dollar Index with a -1.91% decline.

Over the past 90 days, the Brazilian Real is the performance leader with an 8.42% increase, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 7.75%. On the downside, the US Dollar Index is lower by -1.14% and is followed by Bitcoin, which is lower over the past 90 days by a modest -0.54%.