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Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 22

US Dollar strengthens following high inflation data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has experienced a significant decline, stabilising around 1.0745 by Thursday. This movement follows the US releasing inflation data that exceeded expectations, underscoring the ongoing battle against inflation. The March consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, matching February’s rise but surpassing the anticipated 0.3%. The annual inflation rate intensified to 3.5% from 3.2%, signalling persistent inflationary pressures.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also climbed by 0.4% in March, maintaining a year-on-year core 3.8% core CPI. Such elevated inflation levels suggest that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, a sentiment reflected in the CME’s FedWatch tool. The likelihood of a rate reduction in June sharply declined to 18% post-CPI announcement, representing a significant drop from the 50% probability seen before the data release. Expectations now lean towards September for potential Federal Reserve actions.

Market predictions have adjusted to foresee a 43-45 basis point rate cut by the Fed within this year, a sharp decline from the 75 basis points expected at the week’s start and the 150 basis points anticipated at the year’s beginning. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting further solidified concerns, revealing policymakers’ dissatisfaction with inflation trends even before the latest price statistics.

This series of developments has bolstered the US dollar’s strength in the currency market.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The H4 chart analysis for EUR/USD shows a correction to 1.0883, followed by a downturn to 1.0728 on the back of the recent news. A consolidation range has currently formed around this level, with a potential rise to 1.0784. A downward breakout from this range could lead to a decrease towards 1.0700. The MACD indicator, positioned below zero and trending downward, supports this potential scenario.

On the H1 chart, the downward trend towards 1.0700 continues, with a possible correction to 1.0780 expected. This may be followed by a further drop to 1.0680, representing an initial phase of a broader downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 80, anticipates a continued decline towards 20, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

NZD is G10’s best-performer so far today. But will it last?

By ForexTime

  • Markets boosted the “kiwi” after “hawkish” RBNZ signals
  • More action expected with US CPI, FOMC minutes to be released
  • Softer US inflation may boost NZDUSD by further 700 points
  • Still-elevated CPI may force NZDUSD to fall by some 200-400 points

 

The Kiwi is currently the best-performing G10 currency against the US dollar!

NZDUSD surged after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5%, as widely expected.

More importantly for Kiwi bulls (those hoping that NZDUSD would go higher) …

the RBNZ said that its policy needs to be “restrictive for a sustained period”.

And as we know, markets tend to reward the currency of the economy whose interest rates can stay higher for longer.

 

Following the RBNZ decision, NZDUSD a.k.a the “kiwi” saw a price movement range of over 300 points rallying to a high of 0.60774.

This psychological 0.60700 level will be closely monitored ahead of today’s US CPI release!

The US consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation, that is, the changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services over a period, in the United States.

The incoming data is expected to show:

  •  Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. March 2023 (year-on-year): 3.4%
    If that is the case, that 3.4% would be higher than February’s 3.2% year-on-year figure

  • Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. February 2024 (month-on-month): 0.3%
    If that is the case, that 0.3% would be lower than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure

  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) year-on-year: 3.7%
    If that is the case, that 3.7% would be lower than February’s 3.8% year-on-year figure

  • Core CPI month-on-month: 0.3%
    If that is the case, that 0.3% would be lower than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure.

 

 

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • A hotter-than-expected US CPI report may be seen as bullish for the US dollar, likely dragging NZDUSD lower.
  • A softer-than-expected US CPI report may be interpreted as bearish for the greenback, perhaps even lifting NZDUSD past its 50-day SMA (simple moving average).

 

 

But wait, there’s more …

More FX volatility could be expected after the US CPI announcement.

The FOMC’s March meeting minutes are due to be released at 6:00 pm GMT today (Wednesday, April 10th).

  • NZDUSD may move lower if the FOMC minutes show that the US central bank is less convinced about the prospects of 75-basis points in cuts for this year, instead preferring fewer rate cuts.
  • However, NZDUSD could be given a boost if policymakers have greater confidence (more than they’ve conveyed to the public so far) that they can follow through with the 75-basis points of rate cuts pencilled in last month.

 

 

Looking at the chart above …

NZDUSD has rallied for over 1300 points from its year-to-date low at 0.59391.

A surprisingly soft US CPI, with the year-on-year figures close to 3%, may turbocharge the “kiwi” upwards by a further 700 points!

This could send NZDUSD to an upper trendline resistance around 0.61382!

 Possible near-term resistance:

  • 0.60839: the 100% Fibonacci level which is the current zone of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)

The Fibonacci retracement levels are taken from the December 13th low at 0.60839 to the December 28th high at 0.63692.

 

On hotter-than-expected US CPI data, the US dollar may strengthen, which sets Kiwi up for a decline.

Possible near-term support can be seen at

  • 0.60506: an important price level, and upward trendline on the 4-hour timeframe.
  • 0.60319: the 21-day SMA

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EUR/USD holds steady ahead of key economic updates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is maintaining a neutral stance, trading around 1.0851 on Wednesday, as the market anticipates crucial updates, including the US inflation data for March and the outcome of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Given the significant events on the horizon, investors are exhibiting caution.

The US inflation rate for March is anticipated to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, slightly below February’s 0.4% rise. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also expected to grow by 0.3% month-on-month. The market consensus leans towards the US Federal Reserve reducing its interest rate by 75 basis points throughout 2024, indicating three separate 25-point cuts.

Despite the increase in yields on US government bonds since the start of the year, the US dollar’s reaction has been relatively subdued, with only a 2.5% appreciation against a 47-basis point widening in benchmark bond yields. This disparity suggests that the US dollar may play catch-up with Treasury yields, or bond yields might decrease to close the gap. This raises questions about the timing of this adjustment.

The ECB’s interest rate is expected to remain at 4.5% per annum, with the European regulator likely to wait for the Fed’s move towards easing monetary policy before making its adjustments. This approach is taken even though the eurozone has effectively managed high inflation ahead of other developed economies, theoretically positioning it to adapt its monetary policy sooner.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The H4 chart analysis of EUR/USD indicates a correction wave to 1.0883 followed by a decrease to 1.0844. A narrow consolidation range has formed above this level, potentially leading to a correction towards 1.0904 before a new decline towards 1.0790, with a continuation to 1.0700 as a possible target. The MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and the histogram declining, suggests a potential sharp decrease.

The H1 chart shows a consolidation range of around 1.0850, extending to 1.0884. The market has returned to 1.0843, with the possibility of another correction wave to 1.0904 before a downward movement to 1.0790. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 50, indicates a continuation of the decline towards 20, supporting the bearish scenario.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Yen weakens amid intervention concerns and interest rate differentials

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen is experiencing a notable decline against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair currently hovering around 151.88 on Tuesday. Despite the US dollar’s instability, driven primarily by fluctuations in Treasury bond yields, the yen faces significant downward pressure.

Market participants remain cautious, particularly as the USD/JPY pair approaches levels that had previously triggered currency interventions by Japanese authorities. Despite aggressive verbal measures from Japan aimed at bolstering the yen, these efforts have shown limited success. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has reiterated Japan’s commitment to addressing the yen’s excessive depreciation, echoing his earlier statements about readiness to intervene against further declines in its value.

However, the prospect of intervention, although a genuine threat, has thus far prevented the yen from breaching the 152.00 mark.

This substantial interest rate differential between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is a critical factor contributing to the yen’s weakness. While the BoJ has only recently moved away from its negative interest rate policy, setting its lending rate back to zero, the Federal Reserve maintains a fund rate of 5.5% per annum, with no cuts implemented thus far.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has completed a growth wave to 151.75 and corrected to the 150.80 level. Another growth wave to 151.75 has been observed today, with the market forming a consolidation range around this level. An upward breakout from this range could lead to a rise to 152.07. After reaching this level, a correction to 151.75 (testing from above) may occur, followed by an increase to 152.70. This scenario is supported by the MACD oscillator, with its signal line above zero and poised to reach new highs.

On the H1 chart, support at 151.75 has bolstered the development of a growth structure to 152.07. After achieving this target, a correction to 151.75 may be seen, potentially leading to further growth towards 152.70, the main target of the growth wave. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this analysis with its signal line above 50 and preparing to ascend to 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Speculators drop Swiss Franc bets for 9th week to most bearish since 2019

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (8,244 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (2,767 contracts), the Mexican Peso (1,662 contracts) and Bitcoin (1,235 contracts) also seeing positive a week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-14,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-14,124 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-11,948 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,504 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,267 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-933 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-402 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop Swiss Franc bets for 9th week to most bearish since 2019

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline in the speculator’s positioning for the Swiss franc. Large speculative Swiss franc (CHF) currency positions fell this week by a modest -402 net contracts but have now dropped for a ninth consecutive week. The speculator bets have also fallen for the tenth time out of the past eleven weeks as well – for a total 11-week decrease of -18,632 contracts.

This rapid decline in sentiment has taken the CHF speculative position to the most bearish level in the past two hundred and fifty-one weeks, dating all the way back to June 11th of 2019 when the net position totaled -24,788 contracts.

Helping to dent the Swiss franc’s appeal was a recent surprise interest rate cut by the the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in late March. This rate reduction took the interest rate down by 25 basis points to 1.5 percent and marked the SNB as the first major central bank to start a rate cutting cycle after global inflation pushed most central banks to raise rates in the past two years. As a major export country, the interest rate decrease and a falling franc is desirable for Switzerland businesses which will help exports become more competitive.

The CHF exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the decline after a strong uptrend from the 4th quarter of 2022 to late-2023 that saw the franc reach the highest exchange rate since 2015 at 1.2099 (CHF futures or CHFUSD). Since that high-point in December, the franc has been on the downtrend and closed out this week at the 1.1172 exchange rate to the Dollar and about 8 percent off that December high.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (69 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (1 percent), the Australian Dollar (4 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.5 percent)
EuroFX (27.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (33.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (82.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (76.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (99.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (45.8 percent)
Bitcoin (68.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (50.2 percent)


Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (34 percent) and the Mexican Peso (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-40 percent), Swiss Franc (-35 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.6 percent)
EuroFX (-21.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-1.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-18.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-34.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-44.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-37.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-18.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-23.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-40.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (19.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (16.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (-25.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.8 percent)
Bitcoin (34.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.7 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.122.212.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.123.06.7
– Net Position:-1,896-3052,201
– Gross Longs:23,6818,4464,744
– Gross Shorts:25,5778,7512,543
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.9100.036.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.35.97.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.660.410.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.165.38.3
– Net Position:16,794-33,43216,638
– Gross Longs:188,258412,48073,567
– Gross Shorts:171,464445,91256,929
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.576.75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.821.0-7.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.941.111.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.159.113.3
– Net Position:43,414-39,400-4,014
– Gross Longs:98,35290,14625,106
– Gross Shorts:54,938129,54629,120
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.123.650.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.95.4-13.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -143,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.464.815.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.620.714.8
– Net Position:-143,230139,4943,736
– Gross Longs:55,190205,19550,476
– Gross Shorts:198,42065,70146,740
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.094.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.211.127.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.464.511.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.020.029.8
– Net Position:-22,37038,683-16,313
– Gross Longs:21,22056,1449,682
– Gross Shorts:43,59017,46125,995
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 13.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.740.8-30.7

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.461.014.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.434.414.7
– Net Position:-51,22352,481-1,258
– Gross Longs:44,220120,30727,748
– Gross Shorts:95,44367,82629,006
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.184.320.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-42.331.9-1.7

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,685 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.473.39.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.022.514.1
– Net Position:-102,685114,086-11,401
– Gross Longs:34,557164,79020,421
– Gross Shorts:137,24250,70431,822
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.497.525.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.715.5-1.7

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,024 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.062.25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.144.910.6
– Net Position:-7,52810,695-3,167
– Gross Longs:19,72538,4213,383
– Gross Shorts:27,25327,7266,550
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.066.813.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.245.2-56.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 133,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 132,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.936.12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.480.40.9
– Net Position:133,730-139,4355,705
– Gross Longs:191,685113,5028,643
– Gross Shorts:57,955252,9372,938
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.047.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.1-18.62.4

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.234.86.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.532.22.9
– Net Position:-3,2611,3591,902
– Gross Longs:30,31818,1393,413
– Gross Shorts:33,57916,7801,511
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.368.552.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.725.2-0.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.75.15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:81.28.52.6
– Net Position:160-1,008848
– Gross Longs:24,3111,5131,619
– Gross Shorts:24,1512,521771
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.839.132.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.0-56.2-1.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Silver, Gasoline & Peso lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 2nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 46.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 53,147 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,311 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Gasoline


The Gasoline speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gasoline speculator level is now also at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 36.5 this week. The speculator position registered 83,723 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 7,994 contracts in speculator bets.


Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level also resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 19.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 133,730 net contracts this week with a small rise of 1,662 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 96.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 67,482 net contracts this week with a boost of 11,447 contracts in the speculator bets.


Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 93.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.6 this week.

The speculator position was -714 net contracts this week with an increase by 1,074 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -143,230 net contracts this week with a decline of -14,124 contracts in the speculator bets.


Swiss Franc


The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -34.7 this week. The speculator position was -22,370 net contracts this week with a dip of -402 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


US Dollar Index


The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 0.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,896 net contracts this week with a drop of -1,267 contracts in the speculator bets.


Australian Dollar


The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Australian Dollar speculator level is at a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.7 this week. The speculator position was -102,685 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,767 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


Finally, the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 8.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.6 this week. The speculator position was -220,606 net contracts this week with a decrease by -48,562 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Week Ahead: EURCAD ready to breakout?

By ForexTime 

  • Big week for minor currency pair
  • BoC + ECB rate decisions in focus
  • EURCAD trapped within 300 pip range
  • Prices gaining bullish momentum on D1
  • Bloomberg model: 76% chance EURCAD – (1.45454 – 1.48439)

Key central bank decisions, speeches from policymakers, high-impact data, and earnings announcements by US banks may inject markets with fresh volatility next week:

Sunday, 7th April

  • CNH: China forex reserves

Monday, 8th April

  • GER40: Germany industrial production
  • JPY: Japan current account balance
  • CHF: SNB President Thomas Jordan speech
  • SEK: Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen speech
  • USD: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speech

Tuesday, 9th April

  • AU200: Australia consumer confidence
  • CN50: China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans
  • TWN: Taiwan CPI
  • CHF: SNB Vice Chair Martin Schlegel speech
  • SEK: Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden speech
  • ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production

Wednesday, 10th April  

  • CAD: BoC rate decision
  • JP225: Japan PPI
  • NZD: RBNZ rate decision
  • TWN: Taiwan trade
  • NAS100: US March CPI, FOMC minutes, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech

Thursday, 11th April

  • CN50: China CPI, PPI
  • EUR: ECB rate decision
  • US30: US initial jobless claims, PPI, New York Fed President John Williams, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speech
  • GBP: BOE policymaker Megan Greene speech
  • SEK: Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson speech

Friday, 12th April

  • CAD: Canada existing home sales
  • CNH: China trade
  • GER40: Germany CPI
  • JP225: Japan industrial production
  • NZD: New Zealand food prices, PMI
  • UK100: UK industrial production, Manufacturing production, Trade balance, GDP (MoM)
  • USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
  • US500: Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo earnings

The spotlight shines on the EURCAD which has been trapped within a 300-pip range since December 2023.

Given how the Bank of Canada (BoC) and European Central Bank (ECB) rate decisions have the potential to rock the minor currency, a major breakout may be on the horizon.

Here are 3 reasons why:

    1) BoC rate decision

The Bank of Canada is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5% on Wednesday.

When considering the two consecutive downside surprises in inflation, expectations are rising over the central bank cutting interest rates in summer. Nevertheless, much attention will be directed towards the policy statement for fresh insight into the central bank’s future rate decisions.

Traders are currently pricing in a 72% probability of a 25-basis point BoC cut by June 2024 with a move fully priced in by July.

  • Should the BoC hint that a rate cut could be on the horizon, the CAD is likely to weaken – boosting the USDCAD as a result.
  • If the BoC signals that more time may be needed before rates are lowered, this could lend support to the CAD – dragging the USDCAD lower.

 

    2) ECB rate decision

Markets widely expect the European Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

Back in March, the European Central Bank signalled that interest rates could be cut by June after lowering its forecast for inflation. So much focus will be on Lagarde’s press conference for additional clues on future policy moves, especially after inflation fell to 2.4% in March – its lowest rate in more than two years.

Traders are currently pricing in a 92% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by June with a move fully priced in by July.

  • A dovish sounding ECB that confirms that rates will be cut in June may hit the euro, sending the EURCAD lower.
  • If the ECB sounds more hawkish than expected, the euro may jump – pushing the EURCAD higher.

 

    3) Technical forces

EURCAD seems to be gaining bullish momentum on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

  • A solid breakout above 1.4700 may trigger a move towards 1.4750 which has proved a tough nut to crack. Should bulls secure a solid daily close above this level, it could open the doors towards 1.4850.
  • Should prices drop below the 100-day SMA at 1.4665, this could trigger a selloff towards the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA at 1.4620. Below this point, will be the low at 1.4545.

The Bloomberg FX model now forecasts a 76% chance that EURCAD will trade within the 1.45454 – 1.48439 range through next week.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

AUD takes a pause after rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

After three days of significant gains, the Australian dollar is retreating against its American counterpart, with the AUD/USD pair falling to 0.6573.

The US dollar has rebounded after Federal Reserve officials expressed doubts about an immediate monetary policy easing. The discussion around interest rates and the timing of their reduction has become a central topic in the market. Signals that the Fed is prepared to cut rates three times this year, making borrowing costs more affordable, have put pressure on the US dollar, allowing other currencies to recover. However, signs that the Federal Reserve is still awaiting more data before deciding have led to a rebound in the USD and a decline in overall market sentiment.

Australia’s statistical data revealed that import volumes grew by 4.8% month-over-month in February, compared to a previous increase of 1.4%. Export volumes decreased by 2.2% month-over-month, with January’s figure at 1.5%. The positive trade balance in February was the lowest in five months, primarily due to a drop in overseas shipments of iron ore.

For the third consecutive meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% annually, its highest level in 12 years. Meanwhile, the RBA has omitted any mention of potential rate hikes from its comments, confident in reducing inflationary pressure. This has led to forecasts that borrowing costs in Australia may decrease later this year.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave to 0.6480 and a correction to 0.6617 have been completed. We expect the start of a new decline to 0.6422. The first structure of the decline is forming today, targeting 0.6520. After completing this, we anticipate a consolidation range. Exiting this range downward could lead to a wave towards 0.6472, potentially extending the trend down to 0.6422. The MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero, supports this scenario, expecting new lows.

On the H1 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave structure to 0.6520 is forming. Following this, a correction to 0.6572 is anticipated, and a decline to 0.6490, with the trend continuing to 0.6422, is expected. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 20 but poised to rise to 50, technically supports this scenario.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EUR/USD surges following Powell’s remarks on interest rates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair moved upward to 1.0844 on Thursday, marking an unexpected shift following a period of strong US dollar performance. This change in dynamics can be attributed to investors’ positive response to comments made by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the future of interest rates. Powell’s remarks led to a surge in risk appetite, resulting in the dollar’s decline.

Powell indicated that economic indicators would heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rate adjustments. Traders interpreted his comments as suggesting that, given the recent modest nature of US economic data, the anticipated forecast of three rate cuts in 2024, starting in June, remains on the table. The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points by the year’s end, which aligns with earlier statements from the Fed. These hinted at a majority consensus among monetary policy committee members to commence rate cuts within the year, contingent on economic data.

Powell’s reaffirming the Fed’s trajectory towards lower interest rates, with specific timing depending on upcoming data, sets the stage for March’s closely watched US employment market reports. The focus will be on whether the unemployment rate has remained steady and whether there has been any deceleration in the growth of average wages.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed a correction to 1.0783, with a narrow consolidation range now established around this level. An upward breakout from this range could lead to a continuation of the correction to 1.0847, potentially followed by a new downward wave to 1.0694. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line is below zero and the histogram peaks, suggesting a potential sharp decline.

The H1 chart reveals a corrective pattern towards 1.0847, with an expected shift towards 1.0783 to commence a decline phase. A new consolidation range at these levels could lead to further correction to 1.0888 or a downward wave to 1.0694 upon a breakout. The Stochastic oscillator, positioned above 80, anticipates a significant drop to the 50 mark, potentially leading to further declines.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Target Thursdays: EURJPY, USDCHF & XAUUSD reach targets!

By ForexTime 

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

  • EURJPY bulls take home 84 pips
  • USDCHF secures all bullish targets
  • XAUUSD hits 2nd profit level

​​​​​​​

    1) EURJPY up over 200 pips this week

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

As discussed in our mid-week technical outlook on Wednesday, April 3rd:

“Focusing on the technical picture, a possible near-term level where EURJPY bulls may expect some resistance before reaching the 165.335 price target is 164.208.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The EURJPY rallied over 100 pips on Wednesday, as the Japanese Yen weakened across the G10 space.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Traders who took advantage of the breakout above the 161.8 Fibonacci level at 163.368 and exited at 164.208 would have been rewarded with 84 pips!

 

    2) USDCHF blasts past all bullish targets

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (USDCHF) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The USDCHF jumped this morning after Switzerland’s inflation report surprised to the downside in March.

This report has reinforced expectations around the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cutting interest rates once again in June, weakening the Swiss franc as a result.  

 

  • How much in potential profits?

USDCHF has hit all its profit targets.

Traders who entered at 0.90356 and exited at the final target level of 0.90516 would have gained 16 pips.

 

    3) XAUUSD hits second bearish level    

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (XAUUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

After kissing a fresh all-time high during the early sessions of Thursday, gold seems to be experiencing a technical throwback on the M30 timeframe as bulls take a breather.

Note: The precious extended gains on Wednesday thanks to dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. More volatility could be on the cards for gold due to Fed speeches and the highly anticipated US jobs report on Friday.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Gold has hit the second take-profit level.

This is equivalent to a 523-point move from the entry price of $2296.25.

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com