Forex and Currency News

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EUR/USD in Equilibrium: Quiet Trading Expected on Good Friday

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate around 1.1371 this Friday, with trading activity subdued due to Good Friday market closures in the US and most of Europe.

Key Drivers of EUR/USD Movement

With low trading volumes, the pair’s movements remain constrained, leaving it near its three-year peak. Recent USD weakness stemmed from two primary factors:

Concerns over the impact of US tariff policies.
Growing political uncertainty under the Trump administration.

However, sentiment appears to be stabilising as the US engages in trade discussions with key partners, including Japan and Italy. President Trump hinted yesterday at a potential easing of trade tensions with China, suggesting he may halt further tariff hikes and even consider reductions in the future.

Simultaneously, Trump has sharpened his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, expressing frustration over the slow pace of interest rate cuts. He emphasised, however, that Powell’s resignation is unlikely to happen soon.

On the data front, yesterday’s US jobless claims fell to a two-month low, reflecting the enduring strength of the labour market. Meanwhile, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh consecutive time, adding further nuance to the currency dynamic.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart Outlook

The pair is consolidating near 1.1333, with a potential Triangle pattern forming.
A decline to 1.1280 is anticipated, followed by a possible rebound to 1.1370 before another drop toward 1.1250.
This scenario is technically supported by the MACD, where the signal line remains above zero but points firmly downward.

H1 Chart Outlook

The pair completed a downward wave to 1.1264, then corrected to 1.1412.
Today, focus remains on a further decline to 1.1250. A breach here could open the door for a third wave of decline, targeting 1.1080, with potential extension to 1.1030.
The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line sits below 80 and trends sharply downward toward 20.

Conclusion

With markets quiet for Good Friday, EUR/USD remains range-bound. However, technical indicators suggest downside risks in the near term, contingent on key support breaks. Traders should monitor US-China trade developments and Fed policy rhetoric for directional cues.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Apr

Pound Among the Winners Boosted by US Dollar Weakness and Rate Cut Prospects

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair climbed for seven consecutive days, reaching 1.3210, before experiencing a slight dip on Thursday. This marks the longest sustained rise for the currency pair since July last year, with the pound’s strength primarily driven by a weakening US dollar.

Key factors influencing GBP/USD movements

Fundamentally, the outlook remains mixed. The UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell more than anticipated in March, with annual inflation dropping to 2.6% and services sector inflation easing to 4.7%. This has alleviated some pressure on the Bank of England (BoE), prompting markets to adjust their expectations for monetary policy easing.

Traders are now pricing in rate cuts of around 85 basis points by year-end, with the first reduction widely expected in the coming months. By December, there is a greater than 50% probability of a further cut, as slowing inflation could give the BoE more flexibility to support the economy and households amid ongoing trade uncertainties.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD outlook

H4 Chart Perspective

The GBP/USD pair recently completed an upward wave, peaking near 1.3290
A downward impulse is now unfolding, targeting 1.3165
A potential rebound towards 1.3222 may follow before a possible decline to 1.2990
This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line has exited the histogram area and is trending sharply downward

H1 Chart Perspective

The pair consolidated around 1.3222 before breaking lower
The immediate downside target is 1.2880, followed by a potential retest of 1.3222 from below
The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this view, with its signal line below 50 and descending towards 20

Conclusion

While the pound benefits from a softer dollar and shifting rate expectations, technical indicators suggest potential near-term volatility. Traders should monitor both macroeconomic developments and key technical levels for further directional cues.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Apr

Japanese Yen Surges as Weak US Dollar Fuels Momentum

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair extended its decline on Wednesday, dropping to 142.36 amid sustained dollar weakness.

Key factors driving USD/JPY Movements

The Japanese yen’s appreciation is being propelled by broad-based US dollar softness. The greenback faced selling pressure as concerns grew over the economic fallout from proposed new US tariffs.

In a fresh escalation of trade tensions, US President Donald Trump has called for an investigation into imposing tariffs on critical mineral imports – many of which originate from China. This move has heightened investor anxiety, further weighing on the dollar.

Meanwhile, market attention is turning to the upcoming US-Japan trade talks, where Tokyo is expected to push for the complete removal of US tariffs.

On the domestic front, Japan’s latest economic data revealed an eight-month high in manufacturing sector optimism for April. However, the outlook remains cautious due to lingering risks surrounding US trade policy.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to consolidate around 143.20. A downside breakout could signal a further decline towards 141.70, marking the third wave of the downtrend. Conversely, an upside breakout may trigger a technical correction towards 145.00. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero but pointing firmly upwards.

The pair has formed a broader consolidation range between 142.46 and 144.07, with a triangle pattern emerging. A breakout above this range could initiate a corrective rally towards 145.00. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this view, as its signal line – currently below 20 – is trending sharply upwards towards 80.

Conclusion

The yen’s rapid appreciation reflects both dollar weakness and cautious optimism in Japan’s manufacturing sector. However, trade policy uncertainties and technical patterns suggest continued volatility, with key levels at 141.70 (downside) and 145.00 (upside) in focus.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Apr

FX Speculators push Japanese Yen bullish bets to new record high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar & Swiss Franc

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (25,293 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (12,563 contracts), the Swiss Franc (12,487 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (10,775 contracts), the EuroFX (8,145 contracts), the Brazilian Real (8,080 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (5,896 contracts) and Bitcoin (841 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-17,316 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-11,998 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-4,128 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators push bullish bets to new record high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued push higher in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators.

Large speculative yen positions surged higher by +25,293 contracts this week and have now advanced in ten out of the past twelve weeks. Over these past twelve weeks, the speculator position has gained by a total of +176,478 contracts and gone from a bearish position on January 14th (-29,411 contracts) to a new all-time high this week (+147,067 contracts). The new record high surpasses the most recent record reached on March 11th at a total of +133,902 contracts.

The yen exchange rate has been on the move higher as well with the JPY rising this week to the best level against the US Dollar since September of 2024. The USDJPY currency pair is currently trading around 143.50 and further USD weakness/JPY strength with set up a test of the major support level at 140.00.

Tariff turmoil boosts Swiss Franc & Euro, hits USD

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc has been the recipient of safe haven flows and saw speculators sharply boost their bets this week by +12,487 contracts. The overall franc position remains bearish and has been since 2021 – so there is a lot of room for speculator bets to turn around. The Swiss franc (CHF) exchange rate has been on a sharp upward move since the Tariff turmoil hit the markets. This week, the franc rose by over 5 percent and the currency is up over 10 percent in just the past 30 days. The franc closed at the highest level versus the USD since 2011 on Friday.

The Euro speculators raised their bullish bets this week for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. This has added a total of +46,335 contracts to the Euro position in the past eight weeks. The overall bullish standing at the moment for the Euro is at approximately +60,000 contracts which is right down the middle of its 3-year range (strength score of 51 percent). The Euro exchange rate versus the USD has been moving higher and closed this week at its highest level since 2022 at over 1.1350. The Euro move has seen a gain by almost 10 percent in the past 30 days.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been on the opposite side of the Tariff turmoil and has been sold off strongly in the past couple of weeks. The DXY closed this week under the 100.00 for the first time since July of 2023 and has also closed firmly under its 200-week moving average. Speculators reduced their positions for the USD Index by -4,128 contracts this week and brought the overall bullish position down to +2,913 contracts, the lowest level since December.

Currency Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (80 percent) and the EuroFX (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (13 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (31 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (35 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (12.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.3 percent)
EuroFX (51.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (43.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (92.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (34.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (29.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (19.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (48.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (87.4 percent)
Bitcoin (80.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (62.0 percent)

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (41 percent) and the EuroFX (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (25 percent), the Swiss Franc (19 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-13 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-26.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-20.2 percent)
EuroFX (32.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (39.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (15.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (18.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (40.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (34.3 percent)
Bitcoin (24.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (18.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	15.7	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	27.1	12.3
– Net Position:	2,913	-2,601	-312
– Gross Longs:	15,487	3,580	2,479
– Gross Shorts:	12,574	6,181	2,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.7	88.9	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.6	26.1	-6.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	57.6	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	70.5	7.2
– Net Position:	59,980	-90,416	30,436
– Gross Longs:	190,296	401,858	80,668
– Gross Shorts:	130,316	492,274	50,232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	50.4	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.5	-30.6	9.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	33.8	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	42.7	14.5
– Net Position:	17,310	-15,795	-1,515
– Gross Longs:	91,733	59,719	24,131
– Gross Shorts:	74,423	75,514	25,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	55.1	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-8.7	19.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 147,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 25,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 121,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	31.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	81.5	7.8
– Net Position:	147,067	-161,669	14,602
– Gross Longs:	176,555	99,659	39,600
– Gross Shorts:	29,488	261,328	24,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-14.8	4.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	79.6	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	30.2	23.8
– Net Position:	-30,277	37,800	-7,523
– Gross Longs:	4,348	60,872	10,659
– Gross Shorts:	34,625	23,072	18,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	61.1	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-21.1	16.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -119,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	84.8	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	34.6	11.9
– Net Position:	-119,241	129,460	-10,219
– Gross Longs:	16,029	218,923	20,529
– Gross Shorts:	135,270	89,463	30,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	69.4	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-5.5	-15.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -63,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	65.6	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	29.5	16.6
– Net Position:	-63,300	70,205	-6,905
– Gross Longs:	28,493	127,546	25,334
– Gross Shorts:	91,793	57,341	32,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	71.8	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.7	-0.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	84.6	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.3	27.4	7.1
– Net Position:	-39,152	41,292	-2,140
– Gross Longs:	7,935	61,022	2,947
– Gross Shorts:	47,087	19,730	5,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	80.5	26.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-15.5	-10.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 39,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.4	41.2	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	65.4	4.0
– Net Position:	39,082	-36,259	-2,823
– Gross Longs:	80,167	61,831	3,195
– Gross Shorts:	41,085	98,090	6,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	55.6	7.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-5.2	-1.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 45,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.4	24.4	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	73.9	2.4
– Net Position:	45,115	-46,473	1,358
– Gross Longs:	67,079	22,960	3,599
– Gross Shorts:	21,964	69,433	2,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	5.3	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.7	-40.0	-1.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.2	2.2	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	5.5	5.3
– Net Position:	1,332	-897	-435
– Gross Longs:	22,388	591	985
– Gross Shorts:	21,056	1,488	1,420
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	41.1	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-15.9	-29.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Apr

EUR/USD Hits Three-Year High as the US Dollar Suffers Heavy Losses

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is in strong demand, surging to a three-year peak near 1.1330.

Key factors driving EUR/USD Movements

The market remains highly sensitive to growing investor concerns over the US economic outlook. Declining confidence in US assets continues to weigh on the USD.

Fears persist over the potential fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Although the imposition of steep tariffs has been delayed by 90 days, concerns about a slowdown in economic activity remain acute.

Current tariffs on Chinese goods stand at 145%, escalating trade tensions between the US and China and further dampening market sentiment. Meanwhile, the European Union has opted to suspend its retaliatory measures for the same 90-day period, with negotiators seeking a compromise.

The US dollar came under further pressure following the latest inflation data. The core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year in March – the slowest pace since spring 2021. These figures have reinforced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart Outlook

The pair found support at 1.1155 before rallying to 1.1380
A correction towards 1.1155 is possible in the near term
Once this pullback concludes, another upside move towards 1.1400 may follow, marking the end of the current bullish wave
This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards

H1 Chart Outlook

The market has achieved its local bullish target at 1.1380
A corrective phase is forming, with 1.1155 as the next key level
A rebound towards 1.1400 could occur later today, but a subsequent decline to 1.0900 could then come into play
The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line sits below 50 and is trending downwards towards 20

Conclusion

The EUR/USD rally reflects broad USD weakness, driven by economic concerns, trade tensions, and softening inflation. While a short-term correction is likely, the pair could extend gains towards 1.1400 before a deeper pullback materialises.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Apr

Pound Rallies Sharply Weak Dollar Boosts GBP, but BoE Rate Outlook May Complicate Future Gains

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD has risen for the third consecutive session, reaching 1.2857, primarily driven by a weaker US Dollar amid escalating US-China trade tensions.

Key factors influencing GBP/USD movements

China has raised tariffs on US goods to 84%, effective 10 April, in retaliation for the US increasing duties on Chinese imports to 104%.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli warned that these tariffs could dampen UK economic growth, though their impact on inflation remains uncertain.

Markets are now pricing in a high probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in May, with expectations shifting to four cuts by the end of 2025 – up from three previously forecast. Investors are nearly 100% confident in a second cut in June, while a third reduction in September is already fully priced in.

Technical Outlook: GBP/USD

H4 Chart Analysis

GBP/USD is consolidating around 1.2825, with the potential for an upward extension to 1.2875
A downward wave towards 1.2660 remains plausible, with further downside risk to 1.2450
The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward

H1 Chart Analysis

The pair has formed a tight consolidation range near 1.2794, with scope for a rise to 1.2880 to complete the current growth wave
A subsequent decline back to 1.2794 is likely, potentially forming a new consolidation range
A breakout upwards could see a correction towards 1.2934, while a downward exit may extend the downtrend to 1.2450
The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line sits above 80 but is trending downward towards 20

Conclusion

While the Pound benefits from Dollar weakness, the BoE’s evolving rate-cut trajectory and external trade risks could challenge further gains. Traders should monitor technical levels and central bank signals closely.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Apr

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses as Investors Seek Safe-Haven Assets

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has stabilised around 147.60 following two consecutive days of gains, with the yen now attempting to recoup some of its recent losses.

Key factors influencing USD/JPY movements

Uncertainty in global trade relations remains a key focus for currency markets, heightening demand for safe-haven assets. Recent reports indicate that US President Donald Trump has agreed to meet Japanese officials to initiate trade discussions following a phone call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead the negotiations, underscoring the strength of the US-Japan alliance. Key topics will include tariffs, non-tariff barriers, foreign exchange policies, and government subsidies.

Despite Trump’s openness to dialogue, he has dismissed the possibility of delaying new reciprocal tariffs and warned that these measures could remain in place indefinitely. Domestically, Japan’s current account surplus for February reached a record high, buoyed by rising exports and declining imports, which has provided firm support for the yen.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY

H4 Chart: The pair achieved its local downside target at 144.50 before correcting to 148.12. Following this correction, we anticipate another potential decline towards 143.83. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points sharply downward.

H1 Chart: The pair completed an upward structure, reaching 148.12, and is now consolidating below this level. We expect a new downward wave towards 146.27, with further downside potential to 143.83. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending firmly downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The yen’s recovery reflects ongoing market caution, with technical indicators suggesting further downside for USD/JPY. Investors will closely monitor trade developments and macroeconomic data for directional cues.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Apr

Currency Speculators dropped their Bullish Bets before last week’s turmoil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 1st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week (through Tuesday) as just one out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar with a small gain of 1,583 contracts for the week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-13,690 contracts), the British Pound (-9,657 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-7,959 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-5,171 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,602 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,481 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,314 contracts), Bitcoin (-688 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-482 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-427 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

FX Roundup: Currency Speculators dropped their Bullish Bets before last week’s turmoil

Highlighting the COT currency’s data for last week was that the currency bets were overall down before last week’s late-week turmoil on the US tariffs announcement. The COT data is updated each week through Tuesday (released on Friday), so we only get a glimpse to what the speculators & commercials did before the Thursday & Friday selloffs.

The specs reduced their bullish bets across the board last week except for a small uptick in bets for the Australian dollar. The largest decreases were for the Euro, British Pound and the Mexican Peso — which were three currency positions that had been seeing recent speculator sentiment gains and had overall bullish net positioning. The Swiss Franc, the Yen, the NZD and the Brazilian Real saw more modest declines. The Australian Dollar saw a small rise but the overall AUD speculator position remains very bearish at a -76,863 net contract standing at the moment. It is hard to read into any of these moves because they could be and likely to be dwarfed by this coming week’s data and positioning changes.

The price action from last week was obviously dominated by the last two days which saw a giant whipsaw take place from Thursday to Friday. Thursday’s price action had strong bullish jumps for all the major currencies, except for the US Dollar Index, which took a huge hit by over -1.50 percent. The Yen, the Swiss Franc and the Mexican Peso led the way on Thursday with increases by over +2.0 percent each while the other majors saw gains in the neighborhood of +1.0 percent.

Friday, however, was a different story and everything pretty much reversed itself. The US Dollar Index led the way on Friday with a jump by approximately +1.0 percent. The next strongest currency turned out to be the safe haven Swiss Franc — which only fell by about -0.08 percent. The other (normally) safe haven Japanese Yen dipped by -0.32 percent and the Euro fell by -0.84 percent. After that, there was a sea of red with prices dropping for the other major much more sharply — the Aussie experienced a giant drop by -5 percent, the NZD by -3.85 percent, the Real by -3.78 percent and the Peso by -2.80 percent. The Canadian Dollar and British Pound saw declines each by over 1.00 percent.

Next week, to say the least, will be an interesting one after the market digests the recent news, retrenches and re-positions itself going forward. There is considerable risk the trends continue lower like Friday but there is a possibility that like the initial shock of Covid, some markets take a plunge and then turnaround again. Stay alert.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (96 percent) and the Brazilian Real (87 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (62 percent), Mexican Peso (55 percent) and the British Pound (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the US Dollar Index (21 percent) and the Australian Dollar (22 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (21.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (22.2 percent)
EuroFX (48.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (53.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (56.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (96.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (97.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (14.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (29.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (21.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (87.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.6 percent)
Bitcoin (62.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.0 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (39 percent) and the Brazilian Real (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (19 percent), the Mexican Peso (19 percent) and Bitcoin (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-20.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-16.2 percent)
EuroFX (39.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (49.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (15.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (2.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (34.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (37.4 percent)
Bitcoin (18.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	4.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.7	26.4	9.6
– Net Position:	7,041	-6,397	-644
– Gross Longs:	23,640	1,340	2,164
– Gross Shorts:	16,599	7,737	2,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	81.5	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	21.0	-10.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	56.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	68.9	7.3
– Net Position:	51,835	-82,872	31,037
– Gross Longs:	183,247	379,419	80,132
– Gross Shorts:	131,412	462,291	49,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	53.0	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.3	-37.2	12.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	26.9	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	47.6	13.9
– Net Position:	34,626	-38,790	4,164
– Gross Longs:	104,986	50,320	30,248
– Gross Shorts:	70,360	89,110	26,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.7	46.0	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-19.7	30.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 121,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	31.2	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	75.7	10.1
– Net Position:	121,774	-138,547	16,773
– Gross Longs:	161,566	96,971	48,102
– Gross Shorts:	39,792	235,518	31,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.2	3.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-19.9	18.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,593 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	83.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.6	28.0	19.3
– Net Position:	-42,764	49,769	-7,005
– Gross Longs:	4,143	74,797	10,177
– Gross Shorts:	46,907	25,028	17,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	80.6	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	-2.8	26.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -130,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	84.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	32.5	13.4
– Net Position:	-130,016	143,318	-13,302
– Gross Longs:	17,606	233,760	23,892
– Gross Shorts:	147,622	90,442	37,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	75.1	5.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-3.2	-18.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -75,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	65.3	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	22.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-75,863	79,152	-3,289
– Gross Longs:	26,211	119,373	24,740
– Gross Shorts:	102,074	40,221	28,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	77.1	40.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	11.2	0.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -45,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	81.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.7	24.4	6.7
– Net Position:	-45,048	46,893	-1,845
– Gross Longs:	11,164	66,892	3,613
– Gross Shorts:	56,212	19,999	5,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.4	86.8	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-7.8	-2.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.2	31.4	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	67.4	3.8
– Net Position:	51,080	-50,125	-955
– Gross Longs:	86,757	43,822	4,295
– Gross Shorts:	35,677	93,947	5,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	48.4	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-19.2	5.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 37,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.2	34.3	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	66.3	1.2
– Net Position:	37,035	-41,050	4,015
– Gross Longs:	69,590	44,065	5,617
– Gross Shorts:	32,555	85,115	1,602
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.4	10.4	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.3	-36.5	15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.3	3.3	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.5	4.5	4.7
– Net Position:	491	-306	-185
– Gross Longs:	23,373	901	1,077
– Gross Shorts:	22,882	1,207	1,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.0	55.8	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-11.1	-28.6

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COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 Apr

USD/JPY collapses to a 6-month low: safe-haven assets in demand

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY is at a six-month low near 145.57 on Friday after posting a 2% gain in the previous session.

Key factors driving the USD/JPY movement

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping duties have fuelled demand for safe-haven assets. This week, Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imports, set to take effect on 5 April. Around 60 countries are expected to face higher duties, including China (54% tariff), the EU (20%), Japan (24%), India (27%) and Vietnam (46%).

The market reacted quickly and powerfully. A new wave of tariff measures signals potentially uncontained inflation and sluggish global GDP growth. At the same time, demand increased across the full spectrum of safe-haven assets, including the yen.

Statistics from Japan showed that personal spending fell less than expected in February, suggesting some resilience in the economy.

The 2025 baseline scenario suggests that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this year, although uncertainty surrounding global trade and domestic economic conditions casts a shadow over the outlook.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has breached the 147.60 level to the downside and continues to form a wave towards the 144.76 level. The target is local. After reaching it, a correction to 147.60 is possible. Once the correction is complete, a further wave down to 144.12 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and is pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 147.60. Following the downside breakout, the development of the third wave is underway. The target is at 144.76. Once this is reached, a corrective wave is likely. The first correction target is at 146.06. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and heading directly towards 20.

Conclusion

With trade war fears escalating and demand for safe-haven assets surging, USD/JPY remains under pressure. Technical indicators suggest further downside, though a short-term correction is possible. Traders should monitor 144.76 as the next key support, with BoJ policy signals and global trade developments likely to determine the pair’s next significant move.

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03 Apr

GBP/USD Hits 21-Week High: The Pound Outperforms Its Peers

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair climbed to 1.3064 on Thursday, marking a 2.46% gain over the past four weeks and a 2.87% increase against the US dollar over the last 12 months. The British pound continues to strengthen, outperforming many of its major counterparts.

Key factors driving the GBP/USD rally

The UK is closely monitoring developments in US tariffs, which could have significant implications for its economy. While the new tariffs potentially threaten global trade, the UK remains in a relatively favourable position compared to the EU, Canada, China, and Mexico.

Reasons for the UK’s advantage:

The US baseline tariff rate for the UK is just 10% – the lowest among major US trading partners
The UK’s trade relationship with the US is relatively balanced, with a smaller share of reciprocal trade, reducing immediate risks

However, uncertainty looms. Policymakers anticipate a possible reversal of US tariffs, but the broader impact remains unpredictable, whether on inflation, global GDP, or trade dynamics.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

H4 chart perspective

The pair has broken through 1.2988, surging towards 1.3095
A pullback to retest 1.2988 (now acting as support) could occur before another upward push towards 1.3103.
MACD confirmation: the signal line remains above zero and is trending upwards, supporting bullish momentum

H1 chart perspective

After consolidating around 1.2988, the pair broke higher, targeting 1.3095
Once this level is reached, a correction back to 1.2988 could follow
Stochastic indicator: the signal line is above 80 but turning downwards, suggesting a potential near-term exhaustion.

Conclusion

The pound’s resilience against the dollar reflects both fundamental strength and technical momentum. While the UK benefits from a less exposed trade stance, traders should watch tariff developments and key technical levels to gauge the next significant move.

interest rate decisions.

Disclaimer

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